politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far tonight LAB doing worse than expectations while the Lib

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

I'll be interested to see the NEV shares, but my view is that these are good results for both the LDs and the Conservative Parties.

In the LD case, they're likely to have added 2 councils (Richmond, Kingston) and 50-60 councillors. Now, they're not back at 2010 levels, but these are probably the best local election results since.

The Conservative Party has not suffered a meltdown in London, and have done well outside.

And the Labour Party has had a pretty poor evening.

I think that the Lib Dem’s are being flattered by comparison with a disaster last time out for these seats but at least the slide has stopped. It will take them a very long time to recover their former strength in local government at this rate but it is a start. Labour has to be disappointed. The government is really struggling, many are unhappy about “austerity” , real wages have not increased for a year and they are making very little inroads.

AndyJS said:

West Hendon, 2018:

Con: 2196, 2155, 2130
Lab: 2078, 2074, 2014
Greens: 299
LD: 264, 238, 184

West Hendon, 2014:

Lab: 1794, 1769, 1747
Con: 1488, 1459, 1357
UKIP: 445
Greens: 307, 300, 292
LD: 172, 163, 163

West Hendon is one of Barnet’s most deprived wards.

rkrkrk said:

Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.

RobD said:

NeilVW said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Very encouraging stuff.

This will give Theresa a mild boost.

You say that as if it were a good thing.

I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.

No elections in Cornwall this year!

Is Cornwall now the biggest council in the realm? Birmingham down to a puny 100 councillors.

Cornwall is bring reduced to 87 for its next elections. Wiltshire is at 98 but in the middle of an electoral review. Durham I think still well above 100.

A funny comment from a momentum labour I saw was an opening about it being a mixed night, then complaining why Plymouth wasn't been talked about enough.

It was, but as you just said, it was a mixed night.

this is getting ridiculous now.....

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992275257565196288

West Hendon is roughly the mean Barnet ward. It's not deprived per se. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2a4ff54a-862a-448f-882a-ab1f54cc4211/West_Hendon_ward_profile_CT_March_2013_v2.pdf

kle4 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.

Looks like not very much has changed to me.
Imagine the Tories will be happier with that than Labour.

The cult of Corbyn are upset and confused this morning. MSM and BBC amongst those to blame so far.

Tories hold 3 in Chelsea Riverside. There was talk of change there earlier.

https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/local-democracy-and-elections/chelsea-riverside-local-election-results-2018

Oops, forgot also the Blairites and electorate also taking their share of the blame.

rkrkrk said:

kle4 said:

rkrkrk said:

Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.

Looks like not very much has changed to me.
Imagine the Tories will be happier with that than Labour.

Yes, in my sleep deprived state that I forgot to add that important context - everyone got some prizes, some more than other, but in the midst of no sweeping changes as a trend.

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

nunuone said:

this is getting ridiculous now.....

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992275257565196288

I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.

They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.

Brunswick Park is only 5% Jewish, it's on the border with Southgate.

Sky News:

Labour made 4 gains in Plymouth, 3 from UKIP, 1 from Tories.

kle4 said:

nunuone said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.

the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.

Holding the line in terms of councils, I imagine, albeit not without casualties

Sorry should have been clearer. The results show labour going backwards in London compared to GE 2017. They had 20% lead then.

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.

In terms of control but they have been wiped off some more London councils and may have lost 2 councils to the Lib Dem’s. It could have been a lot worse and probably should have been.

Well our own David Herdson and TSE predicted this.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/992277428507570176

SouthamObserver said:

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

Problem is most Corbynites still think victory is just around the corner when the country comes to its senses.

SouthamObserver said:

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/992275714077413376

I imagine the places where Labour have won ukip seats are just fine though.

Also, in the same way tories needed to decide if Corbyn was a joke or dangerous, I got confused between how media attacks damage labour, but at other times its bragged the media attacks fail to do so.

Casino_Royale said:

nunuone said:

this is getting ridiculous now.....

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992275257565196288

I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.

They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.

yes, this is what I've been thinking.

AndyJS said:

Recount in Childs Hill. Explains the delay there. LDs are defending a seat.

Apparently there was 50 votes difference in one of the Childs Hill seats.

kle4 said:

nunuone said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.

the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.

Holding the line in terms of councils, I imagine, albeit not without casualties

Yep.

What success looks like..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1995

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.

It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.

Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control

nunuone said:

Well our own David Herdson and TSE predicted this.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/992277428507570176

Indeed, the only incredible part is Hodges wanting people to believe that any serious commentator would find this incredible.

As kle4 said earlier, everyone must have prizes.

Jonathan said:

What success looks like..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1995

That's the set of seats that are up next year.

Southwark results. Tories lost Village by 299 votes to Labour, although there were boundary changes:

http://www.southwark.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/voting-and-elections/elections-notices-and-results-for-individual-wards#Dulwich Village

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control

I was going to ask if any seats have changed hands but I've just remembered that the boundary changes are going to make it difficult to say.

TheJezziah said:

I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

What progress?

Labour are two seats ahead of where they were in 2010, at the end of 13 years in power and against a divided opposition. Labour have rallied the opposition to one party, alienated their core support outside London, removed all experienced heavyweights from frontline politics and replaced them with what look like overgrown students from the University of Gloucestershire politics course, failed to agree a coherent position on Brexit, made a number of policy promises that they have admitted despite earlier claims to the contrary were uncosted and they never had any intention of implementing, and gained the support of the former leader of the BNP. On top of that, on tonight's evidence they aren't making significant progress even in the country's main conurbations, unlike just about every other left-wing party in the world.

The saving grace for Labour is that May is almost as shite. But an opposition built on the government's weakness with no strength of its own is a poor opposition as Cameron and Kinnock both found to their cost.

8% swing from Lab to Con in Finchley Church End.

https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992282374619545600

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.

It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.

Unless labour pick McDonnell, whoever they pick, better or worse, won't have as much baggage as Corbyn of course.

But will they have the same personal appeal and skill at campaigning?

I can't see such a person.

Also I do wonder if the fact everyone was certain he couldn't win did go some way towards negating all his baggage.

TheJezziah said:

I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.

daodao said:

DavidL said:

daodao said:

DavidL said:

The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

IMO, Trafford is the best result.

I can see why you would think that. The Tories losing their last Council in the North West is a blow to them. It also counters the Labour are only doing well in London meme. But you must be disappointed that so many relatively easy targets have slipped away.

Trafford is my local council, and the Tory administration has been poor.

Trafford is my local council, and I can't for the life of me see how the administration is any worse than any of GM's labour councils. The lowest council tax rates and the best schools in the north west. Bin collections and planning issues no worse than anywhere else. My local labour councillor is a moron of the first order - it is terrifying to think of her anywhere near the levers of power.

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.

It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.

Unless labour pick McDonnell, whoever they pick, better or worse, won't have as much baggage as Corbyn of course.

But will they have the same personal appeal and skill at campaigning?

I can't see such a person.

Possibly not, but of the tories decline a bit, that won't matter so much.

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/992282804598669314?s=21

In fairness, that happened under Miliband as well. Who can forget Balls spending time on a futile campaign in Sheffield Hallam only to lose his own seat?

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/992282804598669314

But it has before and so will again.

I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.

Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.

Tories gain a seat from Labour in Barnet, Brunswick Park, and cling on to another by 7 votes:

https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992283775294820354

TheJezziah said:

Jonathan said:

TheJezziah said:

I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.

Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.

The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.

I would partially agree with that. However, there is a limit to how far that can work given he also drives a large chunk of the floating vote into the arms of your chief opponents. Uniting the vote of the opposition is only a feasible path to power if that vote can overtop the Conservatives and at the moment it can't.

You might almost be better off therefore with a centrist candidate that peels people off from the Conservatives even if that causes the protest vote to go elsewhere.

That said, I appreciate there is a distinct shortage of good centrist candidates - that further said, the left is if anything even worse.

I wonder if the Absolute Boy will be visiting Barnet later today?

*innocent face*

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh Lordy does this mean my Barnet tip(s) are winners ?

Tories now 99% likely to increase their majority...

TheJezziah said:

kle4 said:

TheJezziah said:

I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.

Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.

Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!

Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.

Nemtynakht said:

I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.

Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.

In 2003 there was a famous headline after similarly 'meh' council elections that the Tories 'should not confuse relief with joy.'

These results are less impressive for Labour than those were for the Conservatives. At the moment, they are not a party on the path to power.

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/992285500894400513?s=21

To recall a recent thread discussion, Jews have friends, colleagues, and neighbours.