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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London elections’ betting edges from LAB after reports of an imminent poor poll
I'm told a poll is coming out on Thursday which isn't good for Labour in London.
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Surely not first?0
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Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.0
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As good as that?FrancisUrquhart said:Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.
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Citizens? Are you sure?FrancisUrquhart said:Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.
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Owen Jones knows nothing!!!!!
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On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.0
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Afternoon again all
Is this "poor" poll based on anything approaching evidence or is it all about maximising the Labour vote ? IF it was an incredibly good poll for Labour, wouldn't that lead to complacency ?
A bad poll a week out galvanises the activists to get the voters out.
The numbers last time (roughly) were LAB 43%, CON 30%, LD 10%, Green 7% and UKIP 5% in the capital. The Queen Mary University poll in mid February showed LAB 53%, CON 28% and LD 11% which obscured a bigger swing to Labour in Inner London than on the outskirts.0 -
If Labour are polling badly in London it's unlikely to be because the Tories are polling well. It could be a great night for the Lib Dems.0
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I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.0
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Give over, its all they talk about , down at the local village pub.Windrush , anti semitism ,and what a candidate said on twitter.DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
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In 1971, the Liberals had just nine councillors in the whole of London.
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Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
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https://twitter.com/palmerstonfocat/status/989168902688174080
People who have cats will know this well.0 -
Germany's music industry is abolishing its prestigious Echo prize, after an outcry over its award to a rap duo with lyrics denounced as anti-Semitic.
German rappers Kollegah and Farid Bang won the hip-hop/urban prize for an album featuring verses comparing their muscles to an Auschwitz survivor.0 -
In 1978, they (the Liberals) registered just 6.4% of the vote in London.0
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Its a year since we last had an update about the state of Plato's Pussy!The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/palmerstonfocat/status/989168902688174080
People who have cats will know this well.
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Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.GIN1138 said:
Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
Staggering how times change, isn't it?0 -
1968 in reverse, surely!rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
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I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
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How much have you put on a Labour meltdown as in 1968 ?rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
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Nothing lasts forever...rcs1000 said:
Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.GIN1138 said:
Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
Staggering how times change, isn't it?0 -
I haven't put an actual money. Not as such.Yorkcity said:
How much have you put on a Labour meltdown as in 1968 ?rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
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Newham had 3 Liberal Councillors and 6 Conservative Councillors after 1968. Tower Hamlets was the only Borough where the Tories failed to win a seat in 1968 - some people think the Party will be wiped off TH again next week.rcs1000 said:
Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.GIN1138 said:
Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
Staggering how times change, isn't it?
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In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are so utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.0 -
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.0 -
Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.0
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I would be very surprised if this was not Owen Jones playing down things so they get out their vote, but we will see tomorrow0
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That sounds more like bad taste than anti-semitism, at least out of context. The next lyric quoted by the BBC is far worse: I'm doing another Holocaust, coming with the Molotov especially in a country which is currently witnessing violent attacks on Jews.FrancisUrquhart said:Germany's music industry is abolishing its prestigious Echo prize, after an outcry over its award to a rap duo with lyrics denounced as anti-Semitic.
German rappers Kollegah and Farid Bang won the hip-hop/urban prize for an album featuring verses comparing their muscles to an Auschwitz survivor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-438974840 -
Some might describe it as 'fake news'Nemtynakht said:Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.
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Mr. Paris, impossible, Pravda's Junior Correspondent would never distort the facts.0
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Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.0 -
I thought it was Tories playing blatant expectations management - Mr Jones is hardly subtle in his GOTV efforts and scares like this.0
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The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.
The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.0 -
As much useful political insight from that source as the wing nut in chief on RT.TheScreamingEagles said:The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.
The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.0 -
I get the feeling that Owen's motivation in life is getting Owen more attention. Look at me, look at meeeeeee!!Scrapheap_as_was said:
As much useful political insight from that source as the wing nut in chief on RT.TheScreamingEagles said:The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.
The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.0 -
Some people think the Tories might be able to win Sutton from the LDs although it's an outside chance.0
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Recently I saw a YouGov poll which showed just how unpopular a lot of well known centrist political figures are: https://twitter.com/yougov/status/983301089943605248TheJezziah said:
Which does call into question the Labour/Conservatives would be 20 points ahead if they had a 'decent' leader argument... usually from centrists.The_Apocalypse said:
Apparently his approval rating in France isn’t that different to Trump’s in America. What’s really amazing is just how unpopular a lot of the main world leaders are at the moment. Hardly anyone is actually popular, there are just varying degrees of unpopularity.Morris_Dancer said:Ms. Apocalypse, et a., bear in mind the alternatives to Macron were the FN, the far left, and an idiot who really should've stepped down but preferred to humiliate himself in the ballot box instead.
Edited extra bit: et al, too.
On Boris Johnson the one thing I do wonder about is if his popularity pre-referendum was from remainers and leavers. Obviously not everyone who voted remain will dislike Boris but he is tied in with the leave vote more than any other Conservative, most would probably think of him as the face of leave, at most second to Farage.
I wouldn't rule out him doing well electorally but from a Labour perspective I do feel it would help bring more remainers in to vote for Labour who held off but really don't like Boris. It would be a polarising choice which could go either way....
Boris’ approval ratings have nosedived ever since that EU referendum. He’s not the popular figure he once was.0 -
Maybe Jones is a master of using expectation management to get out the Labour vote, as others have said below.TheScreamingEagles said:The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.
The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.0 -
Penn State Forbids Outing Club from Going Outside Because It’s Too Dangerous
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/penn-state-forbids-outing-club-from-going-outside-because-its-too-dangerous/0 -
wasn't that in part due to hostility to Afro-carribean immigrants moving into those areas, with many tenants forced to move because the landlords wanted to change the houses into multiple occupancy homes?GIN1138 said:
Nothing lasts forever...rcs1000 said:
Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.GIN1138 said:
Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.rcs1000 said:I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.
Staggering how times change, isn't it?
Of course devaluation was by far the biggest factor. Some things change, some things stay the same...0 -
I'll believe it when I see it. Labour masterfully managed expectations last time (when things were genuinely bad), and presumably the instinct remains, in order not to seem too carried away with the slaughter of Tories (electorally) that is about to occur in the capital.0
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I think the one thing that might have registered with some Londoners to Corbyn's detriment is his position on Brexit, which is, to put it delicately, 'nuanced'. If the alleged bad poll exists, that might explain it, and if that is part of the dynamic, it might be quite a serious part. But I have no evidence beyond what I see on random threads on twitter. Would be interested to know if anyone else has the same thought.0
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London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.0
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Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.0 -
Stodge
The results in 2014 were really Con 26% Lab 37.4% on a most votes basis which is the proper comparison for a poll (since it asks for a single answer and not three)0 -
The question is extent, which makes Owen's comment more cryptic. On one level there *are* no bad results for Labour. They are basically 99% likely to make net gains.nunuone said:London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.
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They have a shared interest....themselves.....kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/25/europe/trump-macron-sakya-vandoorne-analysis-intl/index.html0 -
Is it safe to allow trump, Trudeau and macron in the same room...all those massive egos in the same place might alter the earths gravitional field.0
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Liverpool and England midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will miss the World Cup after suffering a knee injury in the Champions League against Roma.0
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The Lib Dems have chosen Mick Clark as their p.p.c in Yeovil. He was in the RAF, then worked in various NGOs abroad, and more recently has been involved in youth work in Yeovil. Compare and contrast with a certain Paddy Ashdown who was in the army, worked in a number of 'international' agencies' and then worked with young people in Yeovil.0
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I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.0 -
Has he bonked his secretary yet?slade said:The Lib Dems have chosen Mick Clark as their p.p.c in Yeovil. He was in the RAF, then worked in various NGOs abroad, and more recently has been involved in youth work in Yeovil. Compare and contrast with a certain Paddy Ashdown who was in the army, worked in a number of 'international' agencies' and then worked with young people in Yeovil.
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Whether she has done so successfully is perhaps a fair question, but the idea that she had bound herself to Trump somehow and that we would inevitably suffer as a result was tinged with plenty of hysteria at the time.Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.0 -
The problem with that tactic is that the poll comes out and it's more favourable to Labour than Jones implied, so Labour supporters who would have been compelled to get off their backsides to rescue the situation now decide, actually it's OK, I don't need to bother.Nemtynakht said:Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.
The tactic will only work if the poll is, indeed, dire.0 -
Labour used to be dab hands of spinning an absolute drubbing in local elections During the 2000s to a positive. "We would be expecting the Conservatives to be gaining over 800 seats at this stage in the election cycle. Their failure to barely reach 750 shows that they are not on course for government."TheWhiteRabbit said:
The question is extent, which makes Owen's comment more cryptic. On one level there *are* no bad results for Labour. They are basically 99% likely to make net gains.nunuone said:London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.
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The difference is that Macron turns on the charm at the personal level while making a robust distinction with Trump on policy. May was just in poodle mode.Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.0 -
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.0 -
The problem is that May is selling a lemon.Quincel said:
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”0 -
Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.Yorkcity said:
Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.0 -
Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.nunuone said:London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.
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If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that May is selling a lemon.Quincel said:
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”0 -
Corbyn: I'm only the leader.
https://capx.co/jeremy-corbyn-and-the-closing-of-the-labour-mind/
Brings to mind an episode of The Thick of It. "I'm only a Cabinet Minister".0 -
Good question in my opinion faith , culture. Years ago my best mans mother, said she could not attend our C of E church wedding , because she and her family was Catholic.Barnesian said:
Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.Yorkcity said:
Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.
She eventually changed her mind and attended.Never come across such views then or since.
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Even The Guardian is tying itself in knots trying to justify Macron holding hands with Trump, and searching for ways to compare the wives unfavourably against each other. I thought I'd stumbled onto the Daily Mail site during a few Guardian articles!The_Apocalypse said:
If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that May is selling a lemon.Quincel said:
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”0 -
So there are people out there stranger than the administration of Pennsylvania State University, improbable though that may seem?MikeSmithson said:
Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.nunuone said:London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.
If Corbyn has a bad night in London ('bad' meaning 'fails to take Barnet') who will he blame?0 -
Seems like a good opportunity to back Labour, IMHO.
Owen Jones does everything through the prism of party politics, not facts/objectivity or value, so I’m surprised the markets have taken any notice of what he’s said at all.
Feel dirty but I’ve back Labour in Westminster, Wandsworth and K&C for smallish stakes.0 -
And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/9892020979619307520 -
Maybe. But he’s been doing the running, within the European context, on Syria, climate change, and Iran.The_Apocalypse said:
If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that May is selling a lemon.Quincel said:
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”
U.K. on the other hand is navel gazing.0 -
A slightly tangential anecdote. A friend of ours is atheist, but his father was a high church CoE vicar, now sadly deceased. Our friend did not have a registry office wedding, and his dad took off his dog collar to attend, essentially saying: "for today I am a dad, not a vicar."Yorkcity said:
Good question in my opinion faith , culture. Years ago my best mans mother, said she could not attend our C of E church wedding , because she and her family was Catholic.Barnesian said:
Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.Yorkcity said:
Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.
She eventually changed her mind and attended.Never come across such views then or since.
His mum visited over Christmas, and wanted to go to midnight mass. He had to phone around for one that could guarantee a male vicar, as his mum would refuse to attend if there was a female vicar / rector. Interestingly, every church refused to guarantee it.0 -
a) mediaydoethur said:
So there are people out there stranger than the administration of Pennsylvania State University, improbable though that may seem?MikeSmithson said:
Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.nunuone said:London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.
If Corbyn has a bad night in London ('bad' meaning 'fails to take Barnet') who will he blame?
b) Blairite MPs spreading "smears"
c) False consciousness0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/989202747575754753
https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/989203218738700288
Ouch. Not sure whether that's Hammond or Johnson throwing May under the bus, but there's certainly an amount of autobus-induced compaction being attempted there.0 -
In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.
The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.
The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.
I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.0 -
Depends on when you ask about. Down to the nineteenth century it was generally seen as a religion. However with the growth of nationalist movements, plus the growth of eugenics and Darwinism more generally, as they had a 'homeland' (albeit one they couldn't return to) and did not generally look for converts outside (holding that it is heredity not ideology that makes Judaism) they came to be seen as a national grouping and from there it was a short step to identifying them as a race.Barnesian said:
Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.Yorkcity said:
Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.Richard_Tyndall said:
In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?DavidL said:On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.
As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.
TBQH I think one of the problems in dealing with anti-Semitism is that it doesn't fit easily into either category. Perhaps call it 'xenophobia' and leave it at that?0 -
Very strange that the LDs have stood down in favour of the Greens in some of their strongest areas in Richmond. It seems unlikely that LD votes will automatically transfer to the Greens.Barnesian said:In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.
The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.
The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.
I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.0 -
It doesn’t look like he’s convinced Trump to change his mind on many of those issues: climate change, Iran etc. Which why he’s been cuddling up to Trump in the first place.Gardenwalker said:
Maybe. But he’s been doing the running, within the European context, on Syria, climate change, and Iran.The_Apocalypse said:
If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that May is selling a lemon.Quincel said:
What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?Elliot said:
I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”
U.K. on the other hand is navel gazing.
0 -
Some Tory votes will transfer to the Greens which helps the LibDems by reducing the Tory vote. Richmond is quite greenish including its MP.AndyJS said:
Very strange that the LDs have stood down in favour of the Greens in some of their strongest areas in Richmond. It seems unlikely that LD votes will automatically transfer to the Greens.Barnesian said:In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.
The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.
The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.
I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.
EDIT: It's possible that some of the Greens might get elected getting both LibDem and Tory votes making a NOC possible. 6/1 at Ladbrokes.0 -
Wing nut in chief he'll always be to me....rottenborough said:And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/9892020979619307520 -
0
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Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.
sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.0 -
Floater said:
Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.
sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.
0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Wing nut in chief he'll always be to me....rottenborough said:And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/989202097961930752 That's a permanent post though, I'm referring to a daily award! 0 -
I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.0 -
hmm - that's nearly exactly what the sky news reporter said.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
Of course if May did that she would be chewed up and spat out by those same people.0 -
Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets0
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/jewish-community-leaders-accuse-jeremy-corbyn-shrugging-shoulders/Yorkcity said:
Why what has happened today ?Floater said:Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.
sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/len-mccluskey-warns-labour-moderates-can-expect-held-account/
No doubt they have no intention on acting against anti semitism0 -
One Jewish Labour MP attending the disciplinary hearing of a Labour member accused of abusing her at the presentation of the Chakrabati Report on anti-semitism within Labour was given a protective cordon of 40 Labour MPs and peers because her own party could not, apparently guarantee her safety, the risk presumably coming from those supporting the person facing the disciplinary hearing.Yorkcity said:
Why what has happened today ?Floater said:Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.
sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.
It’s “kinder gentler politics” in action. I think.0 -
I imagine this guy is going to be found innocent.Scrapheap_as_was said:
That's not going to go down well.0 -
Rudd is very unimpressive but she may stay in place due to Corbyn demanding she resigns.Stereotomy said:Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets
I think she has been grossly incompetent over this and her leadership ambitions must be dead in the water
On Millicent Garrett Fawcett statue is long overdue and is a wonderful inspiring sculpure.0 -
I don’t think Tories are trying to put up posters anywhere this time. I’d be cautious on relying on that as a proxy for support.timmo said:I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.0 -
This state visit by Macron has made it much easier for Trump to come to UK. Believe mid July announcement is due in the next couple of daysFloater said:
hmm - that's nearly exactly what the sky news reporter said.kle4 said:Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.
Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212
He's an interesting man, is Macron.
Of course if May did that she would be chewed up and spat out by those same people.0 -
Anyway time to watch Bayern v Real Madrid fighting to take on Liverpool (most likely)-1
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Rudd will stay because Theresa doesn't need another enemy on the backbenches.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rudd is very unimpressive but she may stay in place due to Corbyn demanding she resigns.Stereotomy said:Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets
I think she has been grossly incompetent over this and her leadership ambitions must be dead in the water
On Millicent Garrett Fawcett statue is long overdue and is a wonderful inspiring sculpure.
If she sacks Rudd, Rudd will feel (perhaps with some justification) that she has carried the can for TM's record at the Home Office.0 -
I agree, though there are lot of Tory stakeboards on the main roads in Barnes (but not as many as the LibDems).RoyalBlue said:
I don’t think Tories are trying to put up posters anywhere this time. I’d be cautious on relying on that as a proxy for support.timmo said:I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.0 -
I saw that on the news , what did he say that was abusive ?Cyclefree said:
One Jewish Labour MP attending the disciplinary hearing of a Labour member accused of abusing her at the presentation of the Chakrabati Report on anti-semitism within Labour was given a protective cordon of 40 Labour MPs and peers because her own party could not, apparently guarantee her safety, the risk presumably coming from those supporting the person facing the disciplinary hearing.Yorkcity said:
Why what has happened today ?Floater said:Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.
sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.
It’s “kinder gentler politics” in action. I think.0
