politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London elections’ betting edges from LAB after reports of

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The London elections’ betting edges from LAB after reports of an imminent poor poll

I'm told a poll is coming out on Thursday which isn't good for Labour in London.

Read the full story here

mwadams

Surely not first?

Cyclefree

mwadams said:

Surely not first?

Apparently so. And am I second?

FrancisUrquhart

Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.

As good as that?

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Third...as in class citizens that Jews are seen by some in the Labour Party.

Citizens? Are you sure?

GIN1138

Owen Jones knows nothing!!!!!

DavidL

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

stodge

Afternoon again all

Is this "poor" poll based on anything approaching evidence or is it all about maximising the Labour vote ? IF it was an incredibly good poll for Labour, wouldn't that lead to complacency ?

A bad poll a week out galvanises the activists to get the voters out.

The numbers last time (roughly) were LAB 43%, CON 30%, LD 10%, Green 7% and UKIP 5% in the capital. The Queen Mary University poll in mid February showed LAB 53%, CON 28% and LD 11% which obscured a bigger swing to Labour in Inner London than on the outskirts.

williamglenn

If Labour are polling badly in London it's unlikely to be because the Tories are polling well. It could be a great night for the Lib Dems.

rcs1000

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Yorkcity

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

Give over, its all they talk about , down at the local village pub.Windrush , anti semitism ,and what a candidate said on twitter.

rcs1000

In 1971, the Liberals had just nine councillors in the whole of London.

GIN1138

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.

The_Apocalypse

https://twitter.com/palmerstonfocat/status/989168902688174080

People who have cats will know this well.

FrancisUrquhart

Germany's music industry is abolishing its prestigious Echo prize, after an outcry over its award to a rap duo with lyrics denounced as anti-Semitic.

German rappers Kollegah and Farid Bang won the hip-hop/urban prize for an album featuring verses comparing their muscles to an Auschwitz survivor.

rcs1000

In 1978, they (the Liberals) registered just 6.4% of the vote in London.

GIN1138

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/palmerstonfocat/status/989168902688174080

People who have cats will know this well.

Its a year since we last had an update about the state of Plato's Pussy!

rcs1000

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.

Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.

Staggering how times change, isn't it?

Sunil_Prasannan

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

1968 in reverse, surely!

TwistedFireStopper

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

Yorkcity

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

How much have you put on a Labour meltdown as in 1968 ?

GIN1138

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.

Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.

Staggering how times change, isn't it?

Nothing lasts forever...

rcs1000

Yorkcity said:

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

How much have you put on a Labour meltdown as in 1968 ?

I haven't put an actual money. Not as such.

stodge

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.

Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.

Staggering how times change, isn't it?

Newham had 3 Liberal Councillors and 6 Conservative Councillors after 1968. Tower Hamlets was the only Borough where the Tories failed to win a seat in 1968 - some people think the Party will be wiped off TH again next week.

Richard_Tyndall

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are so utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

TwistedFireStopper

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Nemtynakht

Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.

Big_G_NorthWales

I would be very surprised if this was not Owen Jones playing down things so they get out their vote, but we will see tomorrow

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Germany's music industry is abolishing its prestigious Echo prize, after an outcry over its award to a rap duo with lyrics denounced as anti-Semitic.

German rappers Kollegah and Farid Bang won the hip-hop/urban prize for an album featuring verses comparing their muscles to an Auschwitz survivor.

That sounds more like bad taste than anti-semitism, at least out of context. The next lyric quoted by the BBC is far worse: I'm doing another Holocaust, coming with the Molotov especially in a country which is currently witnessing violent attacks on Jews.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43897484

BannedInParis

Nemtynakht said:

Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.

Some might describe it as 'fake news'

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Paris, impossible, Pravda's Junior Correspondent would never distort the facts.

Yorkcity

TwistedFireStopper said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.

Scrapheap_as_was

I thought it was Tories playing blatant expectations management - Mr Jones is hardly subtle in his GOTV efforts and scares like this.

TheScreamingEagles

The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.

The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.

The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.

As much useful political insight from that source as the wing nut in chief on RT.

Anorak

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.

The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.

As much useful political insight from that source as the wing nut in chief on RT.

I get the feeling that Owen's motivation in life is getting Owen more attention. Look at me, look at meeeeeee!!

AndyJS

Some people think the Tories might be able to win Sutton from the LDs although it's an outside chance.

The_Apocalypse

TheJezziah said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms. Apocalypse, et a., bear in mind the alternatives to Macron were the FN, the far left, and an idiot who really should've stepped down but preferred to humiliate himself in the ballot box instead.

Edited extra bit: et al, too.

Apparently his approval rating in France isn’t that different to Trump’s in America. What’s really amazing is just how unpopular a lot of the main world leaders are at the moment. Hardly anyone is actually popular, there are just varying degrees of unpopularity.

Which does call into question the Labour/Conservatives would be 20 points ahead if they had a 'decent' leader argument... usually from centrists.

On Boris Johnson the one thing I do wonder about is if his popularity pre-referendum was from remainers and leavers. Obviously not everyone who voted remain will dislike Boris but he is tied in with the leave vote more than any other Conservative, most would probably think of him as the face of leave, at most second to Farage.

I wouldn't rule out him doing well electorally but from a Labour perspective I do feel it would help bring more remainers in to vote for Labour who held off but really don't like Boris. It would be a polarising choice which could go either way....

Recently I saw a YouGov poll which showed just how unpopular a lot of well known centrist political figures are: https://twitter.com/yougov/status/983301089943605248
Boris’ approval ratings have nosedived ever since that EU referendum. He’s not the popular figure he once was.

AndyJS

TheScreamingEagles said:

The days leading up to the general election Owen Jones’ sources were telling him Tooting was going to be a Tory gain.

The result? Tooting saw the Lab majority increase from 6k to 15k.

Maybe Jones is a master of using expectation management to get out the Labour vote, as others have said below.

FrancisUrquhart

Penn State Forbids Outing Club from Going Outside Because It’s Too Dangerous

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/penn-state-forbids-outing-club-from-going-outside-because-its-too-dangerous/

nunuone

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

rcs1000 said:

I expect a result similar to the 1968 London local elections, and have bet accordingly.

Er.... Think your 25 days too late for April Fools.

Lambeth had 57 Conservative Councillors to just 3 Labour ones.

Staggering how times change, isn't it?

Nothing lasts forever...

wasn't that in part due to hostility to Afro-carribean immigrants moving into those areas, with many tenants forced to move because the landlords wanted to change the houses into multiple occupancy homes?

Of course devaluation was by far the biggest factor. Some things change, some things stay the same...

kle4

I'll believe it when I see it. Labour masterfully managed expectations last time (when things were genuinely bad), and presumably the instinct remains, in order not to seem too carried away with the slaughter of Tories (electorally) that is about to occur in the capital.

RightChuck

I think the one thing that might have registered with some Londoners to Corbyn's detriment is his position on Brexit, which is, to put it delicately, 'nuanced'. If the alleged bad poll exists, that might explain it, and if that is part of the dynamic, it might be quite a serious part. But I have no evidence beyond what I see on random threads on twitter. Would be interested to know if anyone else has the same thought.

nunuone

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

kle4

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

TheWhiteRabbit

Stodge

The results in 2014 were really Con 26% Lab 37.4% on a most votes basis which is the proper comparison for a poll (since it asks for a single answer and not three)

TheWhiteRabbit

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

The question is extent, which makes Owen's comment more cryptic. On one level there *are* no bad results for Labour. They are basically 99% likely to make net gains.

CarlottaVance

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

They have a shared interest....themselves.....

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/25/europe/trump-macron-sakya-vandoorne-analysis-intl/index.html

AndyJS

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

We'll find out soon enough.

FrancisUrquhart

Is it safe to allow trump, Trudeau and macron in the same room...all those massive egos in the same place might alter the earths gravitional field.

FrancisUrquhart

Liverpool and England midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will miss the World Cup after suffering a knee injury in the Champions League against Roma.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/aayoub/status/989162659688960005

slade

The Lib Dems have chosen Mick Clark as their p.p.c in Yeovil. He was in the RAF, then worked in various NGOs abroad, and more recently has been involved in youth work in Yeovil. Compare and contrast with a certain Paddy Ashdown who was in the army, worked in a number of 'international' agencies' and then worked with young people in Yeovil.

Elliot

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

FrancisUrquhart

slade said:

The Lib Dems have chosen Mick Clark as their p.p.c in Yeovil. He was in the RAF, then worked in various NGOs abroad, and more recently has been involved in youth work in Yeovil. Compare and contrast with a certain Paddy Ashdown who was in the army, worked in a number of 'international' agencies' and then worked with young people in Yeovil.

Has he bonked his secretary yet?

kle4

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

Whether she has done so successfully is perhaps a fair question, but the idea that she had bound herself to Trump somehow and that we would inevitably suffer as a result was tinged with plenty of hysteria at the time.

FF43

Nemtynakht said:

Seems like inverse ramping to me, a total get out the vote operation and yet more sucking up from Owen Jones.

The problem with that tactic is that the poll comes out and it's more favourable to Labour than Jones implied, so Labour supporters who would have been compelled to get off their backsides to rescue the situation now decide, actually it's OK, I don't need to bother.

The tactic will only work if the poll is, indeed, dire.

notme

TheWhiteRabbit said:

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

The question is extent, which makes Owen's comment more cryptic. On one level there *are* no bad results for Labour. They are basically 99% likely to make net gains.

Labour used to be dab hands of spinning an absolute drubbing in local elections During the 2000s to a positive. "We would be expecting the Conservatives to be gaining over 800 seats at this stage in the election cycle. Their failure to barely reach 750 shows that they are not on course for government."

FF43

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

The difference is that Macron turns on the charm at the personal level while making a robust distinction with Trump on policy. May was just in poodle mode.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

In 1978, they (the Liberals) registered just 6.4% of the vote in London.

Which should have given them well over 100 councillors

Quincel

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

Gardenwalker

Quincel said:

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

The problem is that May is selling a lemon.

“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”

Barnesian

Yorkcity said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.

Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.

MikeSmithson

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.

The_Apocalypse

Gardenwalker said:

Quincel said:

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

The problem is that May is selling a lemon.

“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”

If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.

rottenborough

Corbyn: I'm only the leader.

https://capx.co/jeremy-corbyn-and-the-closing-of-the-labour-mind/

Brings to mind an episode of The Thick of It. "I'm only a Cabinet Minister".

Yorkcity

Barnesian said:

Yorkcity said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.

Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.

Good question in my opinion faith , culture. Years ago my best mans mother, said she could not attend our C of E church wedding , because she and her family was Catholic.

She eventually changed her mind and attended.Never come across such views then or since.

TwistedFireStopper

The_Apocalypse said:

Gardenwalker said:

Quincel said:

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

The problem is that May is selling a lemon.

“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”

If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.

Even The Guardian is tying itself in knots trying to justify Macron holding hands with Trump, and searching for ways to compare the wives unfavourably against each other. I thought I'd stumbled onto the Daily Mail site during a few Guardian articles!

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.

So there are people out there stranger than the administration of Pennsylvania State University, improbable though that may seem?

If Corbyn has a bad night in London ('bad' meaning 'fails to take Barnet') who will he blame?

Casino_Royale

Seems like a good opportunity to back Labour, IMHO.

Owen Jones does everything through the prism of party politics, not facts/objectivity or value, so I’m surprised the markets have taken any notice of what he’s said at all.

Feel dirty but I’ve back Labour in Westminster, Wandsworth and K&C for smallish stakes.

rottenborough

And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.

https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/989202097961930752

Gardenwalker

The_Apocalypse said:

Gardenwalker said:

Quincel said:

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

The problem is that May is selling a lemon.

“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”

If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.

Maybe. But he’s been doing the running, within the European context, on Syria, climate change, and Iran.

U.K. on the other hand is navel gazing.

JosiasJessop

Yorkcity said:

Barnesian said:

Yorkcity said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.

Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.

Good question in my opinion faith , culture. Years ago my best mans mother, said she could not attend our C of E church wedding , because she and her family was Catholic.

She eventually changed her mind and attended.Never come across such views then or since.

A slightly tangential anecdote. A friend of ours is atheist, but his father was a high church CoE vicar, now sadly deceased. Our friend did not have a registry office wedding, and his dad took off his dog collar to attend, essentially saying: "for today I am a dad, not a vicar."

His mum visited over Christmas, and wanted to go to midnight mass. He had to phone around for one that could guarantee a male vicar, as his mum would refuse to attend if there was a female vicar / rector. Interestingly, every church refused to guarantee it.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

nunuone said:

London will be a Labour Landslide. Make no mistake.

Who'll gain control of more London councils - LAB or the LDs? The betting suggests the latter.

So there are people out there stranger than the administration of Pennsylvania State University, improbable though that may seem?

If Corbyn has a bad night in London ('bad' meaning 'fails to take Barnet') who will he blame?

a) media
b) Blairite MPs spreading "smears"
c) False consciousness

El_Capitano

https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/989202747575754753

https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/989203218738700288

Ouch. Not sure whether that's Hammond or Johnson throwing May under the bus, but there's certainly an amount of autobus-induced compaction being attempted there.

Barnesian

In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.

The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.

The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.

I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.

ydoethur

Barnesian said:

Yorkcity said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DavidL said:

On topic I am a bit suspicious of the alleged leak. Yougov are usually very careful about that. I also have real doubts how much the fiascos of the last month will really have penetrated beyond the bubble. Sounds more like activists trying to stir up the troops.

I'm in my 50s, lived in this rural county all my life, and have had friends, coleagues and neigbours of many different races and religions.... but, I don't actually ever remember knowing or working with anyone from the Jewish faith. I still find the antisemitism appaling, but wonder how many people in my situation barely think of it at all, having not really known any Jews?

In all seriousness I wonder if you would even know. Many Jews - like many Christians - do not feel it is necessary to advertise their faith and are do utterly assimilated into British society that many people would never know that their work colleagues or neighbours were of a different faith.

As an atheist who follows the line of live and let live I find the fact that religion is not a defining feature in large parts of our society to be a pleasing idea.

Yeah, I didn't really articulate that well. I was just trying to think how, having not knowingly come into contact with the Jewish faith, it'd be easy for large swathes of the country to be a bit "meh" about the Labour anti semitism row.

Think you said it well.I am in a similar situation.Can honestly say it has never come up in any discussion, with friends , family or work.Then again why should it ,as organised religion itself is not a big thing in most people's lifes, I know.

Is it a matter of faith or race? Is anti-semitism akin to anti-muslim or to anti-black or to anti- American? I'm genuinely confused.

Depends on when you ask about. Down to the nineteenth century it was generally seen as a religion. However with the growth of nationalist movements, plus the growth of eugenics and Darwinism more generally, as they had a 'homeland' (albeit one they couldn't return to) and did not generally look for converts outside (holding that it is heredity not ideology that makes Judaism) they came to be seen as a national grouping and from there it was a short step to identifying them as a race.

TBQH I think one of the problems in dealing with anti-Semitism is that it doesn't fit easily into either category. Perhaps call it 'xenophobia' and leave it at that?

AndyJS

Barnesian said:

In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.

The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.

The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.

I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.

Very strange that the LDs have stood down in favour of the Greens in some of their strongest areas in Richmond. It seems unlikely that LD votes will automatically transfer to the Greens.

The_Apocalypse

Gardenwalker said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Gardenwalker said:

Quincel said:

Elliot said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

I remember when May was slated for doing the same thing.

What was her punch? Didn't she get some vague commitment on a trade deal which has since flipped back and forth as what the US's stance on us post-Brexit is?

The problem is that May is selling a lemon.

“Pssst...wanna ally with a country busy estranging itself from global influence?”

If May is selling a lemon in that case, then so is Macron.

Maybe. But he’s been doing the running, within the European context, on Syria, climate change, and Iran.

U.K. on the other hand is navel gazing.

It doesn’t look like he’s convinced Trump to change his mind on many of those issues: climate change, Iran etc. Which why he’s been cuddling up to Trump in the first place.

Barnesian

AndyJS said:

Barnesian said:

In Richmond, the Ladbrokes odds have slowly moved in favour of the Tories with the LibDems moving from odds on to evens. But it could really go either way. The differential turnout will be critical.

The Tories are running a LibDem campaign on bins and potholes. "Vote Tory if you want to preserve weekly bin collections" implying the LibDems would scrap them (which we won't). Also the Tories promise a massive increase in investment on roads and pavements and blame the previous LibDem administration (of eight years ago) for the current parlous state of the roads. Main message is "Stick with us. Don't take the risk". A classic political message.

The LibDems are majoring on Brexit and making a play for the EU nationals vote (There are 700 EU nationals in Barnes alone). Also highlighting that the Tory government has broken its promise on the 3rd runway at Heathrow. Big Labour squeeze. Main message is "Time for a change". The other classic political message. There are huge number of enthusiastic new LibDem members delivering and canvassing. I haven't seen much evidence of Tory foot soldiers but they tend to work beneath the radar.

I don't have a betting tip. I got a largish insurance bet on the Tories at a boosted 27/20 early on but I don't talk about that.

Very strange that the LDs have stood down in favour of the Greens in some of their strongest areas in Richmond. It seems unlikely that LD votes will automatically transfer to the Greens.

Some Tory votes will transfer to the Greens which helps the LibDems by reducing the Tory vote. Richmond is quite greenish including its MP.

EDIT: It's possible that some of the Greens might get elected getting both LibDem and Tory votes making a NOC possible. 6/1 at Ladbrokes.

Scrapheap_as_was

rottenborough said:

And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.

https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/989202097961930752

Wing nut in chief he'll always be to me....

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/989204940982759424

Clearly not seen Owen's polling numbers.

Floater

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

Scrapheap_as_was

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989204643732475905

Yorkcity

Floater said:

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

Why what has happened today ?

rottenborough

Floater said:

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

rottenborough

Scrapheap_as_was said:

rottenborough said:

And, here we go, today's winner of "irony is dead" award is Chris Williamson.

https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/989202097961930752

Wing nut in chief he'll always be to me....

That's a permanent post though, I'm referring to a daily award!

timmo

I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.

Floater

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

hmm - that's nearly exactly what the sky news reporter said.

Of course if May did that she would be chewed up and spat out by those same people.

Stereotomy

Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets

Floater

Yorkcity said:

Floater said:

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

Why what has happened today ?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/jewish-community-leaders-accuse-jeremy-corbyn-shrugging-shoulders/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/25/len-mccluskey-warns-labour-moderates-can-expect-held-account/

No doubt they have no intention on acting against anti semitism

Cyclefree

Yorkcity said:

Floater said:

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

Why what has happened today ?

One Jewish Labour MP attending the disciplinary hearing of a Labour member accused of abusing her at the presentation of the Chakrabati Report on anti-semitism within Labour was given a protective cordon of 40 Labour MPs and peers because her own party could not, apparently guarantee her safety, the risk presumably coming from those supporting the person facing the disciplinary hearing.

It’s “kinder gentler politics” in action. I think.

rkrkrk

Scrapheap_as_was said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/989204643732475905

I imagine this guy is going to be found innocent.
That's not going to go down well.

Big_G_NorthWales

Stereotomy said:

Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets

Rudd is very unimpressive but she may stay in place due to Corbyn demanding she resigns.

I think she has been grossly incompetent over this and her leadership ambitions must be dead in the water

On Millicent Garrett Fawcett statue is long overdue and is a wonderful inspiring sculpure.

RoyalBlue

timmo said:

I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.

I don’t think Tories are trying to put up posters anywhere this time. I’d be cautious on relying on that as a proxy for support.

Big_G_NorthWales

Floater said:

kle4 said:

Fairly glowing summary of Macron and his US trip I note.

Macron has provided a masterclass to other world leaders on how to handle Donald Trump - you cuddle up close, you flatter where necessary - but you use that to allow you to pack a big punch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43897212

He's an interesting man, is Macron.

hmm - that's nearly exactly what the sky news reporter said.

Of course if May did that she would be chewed up and spat out by those same people.

This state visit by Macron has made it much easier for Trump to come to UK. Believe mid July announcement is due in the next couple of days

Big_G_NorthWales

Anyway time to watch Bayern v Real Madrid fighting to take on Liverpool (most likely)

rkrkrk

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stereotomy said:

Rudd might be in trouble if she was wrong about the net removal targets

Rudd is very unimpressive but she may stay in place due to Corbyn demanding she resigns.

I think she has been grossly incompetent over this and her leadership ambitions must be dead in the water

On Millicent Garrett Fawcett statue is long overdue and is a wonderful inspiring sculpure.

Rudd will stay because Theresa doesn't need another enemy on the backbenches.
If she sacks Rudd, Rudd will feel (perhaps with some justification) that she has carried the can for TM's record at the Home Office.

Barnesian

RoyalBlue said:

timmo said:

I think there are some.mispriced boroughs on Ladbrokes for next week.
Driving through Richmond and Kingston today there is a veritable rainforest of Orange diamonds..In Sutton there are hardly any.
Lib dems at even money in Richmond is stonking value.
NOC at 7/1 in Sutton is also great value as the 3 indeoendants in a ward where the largest incinerator in the south ofvEngland has been built look nailed on. The Sutton and Cheam side of the borough where Paul Scully increased his maj from 3k to 13k last June is looking very strong for the Tories. It will deoend on what happens in Car and Wallington side. If Lab can eek out 1 or 2 and there are a couple of split wards anything could happen.

I don’t think Tories are trying to put up posters anywhere this time. I’d be cautious on relying on that as a proxy for support.

I agree, though there are lot of Tory stakeboards on the main roads in Barnes (but not as many as the LibDems).

Yorkcity

Cyclefree said:

Yorkcity said:

Floater said:

Another day where decent Labour supporters must wonder what the feck is going on with their party.

sorry people, your party has gone - the far left has eaten it and they never play nice.

Why what has happened today ?

One Jewish Labour MP attending the disciplinary hearing of a Labour member accused of abusing her at the presentation of the Chakrabati Report on anti-semitism within Labour was given a protective cordon of 40 Labour MPs and peers because her own party could not, apparently guarantee her safety, the risk presumably coming from those supporting the person facing the disciplinary hearing.

It’s “kinder gentler politics” in action. I think.

I saw that on the news , what did he say that was abusive ?