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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show that they are still in the game
We are now three years on from the end of the Coalition and it is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue. For the Lib Dems next week’s local elections are an opportunity to show that they are starting to recover at least at local level.
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No, because they are a load of alien lizards who are trying to destroy civilisation.-1
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preparation for government intensifies?0
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Gah. Just 'lost' some posts, on Chrome on a PC that has never done this before.
This is becoming blooming annoying.0 -
There’s a London poll coming out later this week, apparently:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/988550226498801664?s=210 -
LibDems (Very Occasionally) Winning Here0
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[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.0 -
This is an interesting article from a year ago:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-labour-conservative-brexit-jewish/530046/
It is especially interesting as it mentions that mural. I didn't know people were aware of it at the time of the election (I certainly wasn't).0 -
There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?0
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The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.0 -
What the Lib Dem’s really need is to start rebuilding local strength in the seats that Cameron plundered in 2015 to get his majority. If the Lib Dem’s are ever going to become a national force again they need to have a base from which to grow. I just see this as being very difficult for them when the Tories are in the low 40’s and their supporters are motivated by fear of Corbyn.
They may return but not this time around.0 -
Normally Spinning HereJackW said:LibDems (Very Occasionally) Winning Here
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Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...0
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Local people betting?DavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
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I tipped up the 5-4 here. We shall see if I'm right shortly.DavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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The LibDems pioneered the tactic of placing bets to simulate (and stimulate) momentum.DavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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Some of them were, some of them were not.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
That may be a part of the problem0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.0 -
The LDs were everything to everyone. They represented the purity and perfection that neither of the other parties could ever achieve.
Once that ideal came into contact with reality, however, it was always a certainty that everyone would be disappointed. Turns out they were just like every other political party.0 -
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.0 -
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.0 -
Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.0 -
Lamb is fine, just been on the Today programme:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
https://twitter.com/RichardatKF/status/9886652298055229440 -
One thing that we have to be aware of at the moment is that postal votes are being returned and in many cases the party campaigns will get a sense of how well they think they are doing. This is all highly illegal but generally the people running campaigns in local areas do know whether a surprise or change might be on the cardsDavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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I think a significant part of their vote saw them as left wing and were deeply disappointed by the coalition govt.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
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I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.Foxy said:
Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset0 -
That’s my guess - especially the anti-war Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
I think a significant part of their vote saw them as left wing and were deeply disappointed by the coalition govt.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
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Winchester might be a gain.
Oddly, the Conservatives no longer have a single seat in Watford borough, despite holding the Parliamentary seat.0 -
That sounds positive on health and social care, although the difficulty is going to be to get all parties agreed on the susbstance of the proposals at the end of the process.Foxy said:
Lamb is fine, just been on the Today programme:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
https://twitter.com/RichardatKF/status/9886652298055229440 -
They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.Charles said:
I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.Foxy said:
Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset0 -
Dr. Foxy, cheers for that good news.0
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His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'Casino_Royale said:
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time ascaretakerleader.0 -
All those lefties who left the party because they were shocked they did a deal with the Torres? They didn’t see the LDs as soft right when they voted for them.Foxy said:
They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.Charles said:
I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.Foxy said:
Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
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That’s exactly what I was wondering Mike. The problem is differentiating between activist optimism and hard data.MikeSmithson said:
One thing that we have to be aware of at the moment is that postal votes are being returned and in many cases the party campaigns will get a sense of how well they think they are doing. This is all highly illegal but generally the people running campaigns in local areas do know whether a surprise or change might be on the cardsDavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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The LDs got 18% in the County Council elections compared to 13% at the 2014 Locals so really should be able to increase their voteshare, especially in strongly Remain SW London and areas like Kingston upon Thames and Richmond Park.
In the Home Counties they are also playing the NIMBY card and opposing any development and new housing in the greenbelt and countryside and indeed in a number of brownbelt sites too as I know as I am currently challenging the LD incumbent in my ward in Essex.0 -
Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
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That’s a very fair point.OblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.0 -
And all those in favour of Brexit (or of democracy) who have seen the LDs dominated by those trying to overturn the referendum result above all else.Charles said:
All those lefties who left the party because they were shocked they did a deal with the Torres? They didn’t see the LDs as soft right when they voted for them.Foxy said:
They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.Charles said:
I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.Foxy said:
Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset0 -
Which was a perfectly good fit under Kennedy. He of course also attracted large numbers of Labour supporters opposed to the Iraq war. Clegg was and is more soft right. He takes things like the deficit seriously. The arithmetic gave him no choice but I never really doubted that he was a lot more comfortable with Cameron than Brown. Under the notional leadership of Cable it is hard to work out where they are.kle4 said:
Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
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Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.
Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.0 -
Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general electionOblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.0 -
I was thinking the same thing - I'd assumed the Gov would have the votes, but he's always been a hard brexit is the only real Brexit kind of chap, and to move away from stories on Corbynistas surely shows some concern.RoyalBlue said:Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.
Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
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Corbyn is May's best friend.RoyalBlue said:Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.
Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.0 -
Liam Fox: who cares about goods?
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/9886696273445232640 -
Morning all
Well, nice to see a thread about the LDs and so many people wishing the Party well and thinking they aren't too bad...
Yeah, right.
In terms of London, the best result would be to end the night controlling Kingston, Richmond and Sutton. That hasn't happened as often as you might think - I can only think of 1994-98 and 2006-10 when all three Boroughs were under LD control at the same time. Beyond that, rather as with the Conservatives, it's going to be a case of trying to hold back the Labour onslaught in a few Wards here and there.
Outside London, I don't know. I would be looking to see signs of recovery in existing and previous areas of strength. I'd like to think South Lakeland would be held and a few other gains in other places.
Oddly enough, the next time these seats are contested "could" be alongside the GE.
The current "Councils" score in London is LAB 20, CON 9, LD 1, NOC 2.0 -
Welcome to our beautiful North Wales.RoyalBlue said:Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.
Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.
Guido does seem to be demanding TM puts her Premiership on the line but I doubt she will as the maths simply do not add up and by sacrificing herself it would prove a pointless exercise as no other conservative leader could confound the inevitability of the end result.
TM is stubborn and will continue to demand we leave the customs union but once it becomes apparent to all she will respond by accepting the will of the HOC and do the deal accordingly and receive overwhelming HOC and HOL support leaving the hard Brexiteers shouting from the roof tops but frankly with complete impotency0 -
London is the exception.HYUFD said:
Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general electionOblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.0 -
Morning all.0
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Apart from London yes but that is largely down to opposition to Brexit and social change and as you suggest has been matched by swings to the Tories in Leave areas like East Anglia and the MidlandsSean_F said:
London is the exception.HYUFD said:
Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general electionOblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.0 -
While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyenawilliamglenn said:Liam Fox: who cares about goods?
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/988669627344523264
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video0 -
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“The risk is that staying in the Customs Union is that Fox and Johnson resign.”Roger said:
While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyenawilliamglenn said:Liam Fox: who cares about goods?
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/988669627344523264
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
Surely that’s a benefit?0 -
I have to pinch myself before I can believe that 52% of my fellow countrymen and women lined up behind these lizards.Anazina said:
“The risk is that staying in the Customs Union is that Fox and Johnson resign.”Roger said:
While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyenawilliamglenn said:Liam Fox: who cares about goods?
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/988669627344523264
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
Surely that’s a benefit?0 -
The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.ydoethur said:
His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'Casino_Royale said:
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time ascaretakerleader.
Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.0 -
The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.
Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.0 -
Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.ydoethur said:
His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'Casino_Royale said:
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time ascaretakerleader.
Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.0 -
Lord Rennard is a strong campaigner.Gardenwalker said:The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.
Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.0 -
Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.0
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Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.0
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Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.0 -
Ideally he would have convertedFoxy said:
Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.ydoethur said:
His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'Casino_Royale said:
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time ascaretakerleader.
Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.0 -
Glad to see you like the Party and have confidence in it !Gardenwalker said:The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.
Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.
Plenty of reasons why it makes no difference who the LD leader is at this time. Vince is fine as a caretaker for now.
May and Corbyn are, as we can see on here, hugely polarising figures. The fear or should that be stark terror of a Corbyn-led Government holds the Conservatives together and prevents much fragmentation (may be different at a local level). On the other side, those desperate to see the end of the Conservatives for whatever reason recognise Corbyn is the only game in town.
The LDs have "form" with the Conservatives and can't be "trusted". Thus politics is frozen in glacis while Corbyn is Labour leader. Replacing May with A.N Other or S.O Else won't make a lot of difference to the Conservative numbers.
Remove Corbyn and a lot will start to change - picking the "right" leader (and Labour is not without talent on its front and back benches) would make May look out of place and out of touch. As both Blair and Wilson discovered, the key to Labour winning is to make Labour look modern and relevant and make the Conservatives look irrelevant and dated.
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Edit. Misread what you wrote. Yes he made a mistake. Also over his apology. Macron has shown the wayFoxy said:
Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.Gardenwalker said:
The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.ydoethur said:
His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'Casino_Royale said:
Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time ascaretakerleader.
Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.0 -
Have you ever thought of becoming a political advisor, Roger?Roger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.0 -
Surely a centrist party that hopes to compete electorally must be able to attract both the soft left and the soft right ?DavidL said:
Which was a perfectly good fit under Kennedy. He of course also attracted large numbers of Labour supporters opposed to the Iraq war. Clegg was and is more soft right. He takes things like the deficit seriously. The arithmetic gave him no choice but I never really doubted that he was a lot more comfortable with Cameron than Brown. Under the notional leadership of Cable it is hard to work out where they are.kle4 said:
Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.Charles said:
Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?RochdalePioneers said:Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
Without a strong leader, I suppose internecine squabbling over minor differences is unavoidable, though.0 -
But, some of the swings in East Sussex and other parts of the South East to Labour last year were truly shocking.Sean_F said:
London is the exception.HYUFD said:
Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general electionOblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
Upended everything I thought I knew about the UKs political geography.0 -
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.0 -
Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.0
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I think May's motivations pretty much directly conflict with her party's. For May to hang on after 2019, it would be very helpful for her for Brexit to drag on. Maybe not the actual technical moment of leaving, but having various loose ends that need to be tied in the transition period would help make an argument for continuity.
On the other hand, for the electoral prospects of the Tories, the sooner they put Brexit behind them, the better. It's extremely divisive both among their politicians and their voters. Arguably the only thing keeping the centre from fleeing away from Corbyn towards then is the remainer antipathy towards the Tories (I know a few people here find this baffling, given that Labour also backs Brexit, but it is nonetheless the case).0 -
A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
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The mental picture did make chuckle, though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.0 -
I'm very happy to be on this bet.Pulpstar said:
I tipped up the 5-4 here. We shall see if I'm right shortly.DavidL said:There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
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Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.0 -
On topic, that is one fcuked up bar chart.
https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/988438575690801152
I'm so old I remember the days when LD bar charts were coherently dishonest.0 -
If a movement is led almost exclusively by a rag tag of racists fascists and opportunists it's reasonable to wonder whether it's for you. Moreover if their publicity material is overtly racist it's reasonable to expect non racists to have nothing to do with it. Otherwise you're no different to those who joined the Nazi Party because they wanted the trains to run on time.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.
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Housing.Casino_Royale said:
But, some of the swings in East Sussex and other parts of the South East to Labour last year were truly shocking.Sean_F said:
London is the exception.HYUFD said:
Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general electionOblitusSumMe said:
One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.Casino_Royale said:
The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.tlg86 said:[I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
Upended everything I thought I knew about the UKs political geography.
Why would people vote Conservative if they can't afford to own a house where they live and when a Conservative government encourages ever higher house prices.0 -
Lib Dems need to learn to love Cable.0
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A fall of 7.6% in the deficit, year on year, in cash terms. More like 10% in real terms and 12.5% in GDP terms (very approximately).TheWhiteRabbit said:
A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
Incidentally I think the OBR must have revised up their growth forecasts0 -
Sorry I should have said '....stop being naughty'Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.0 -
Mr. Roger, that's as reasonable as suggesting everyone who voted to Remain supported Irish terrorism.
Shouting "racist" is no substitute for a coherent argument. If Remain had considered that, if Cameron hadn't wibbled about "Little Englanders", they would've, as widely expected, won.
As for fascists, that's an entertaining claim given you've just opined Corbyn should tell Jewish leaders to **** off.0 -
It's about £2.5bn lower than the OBR figures Hammond read out last month in the Spring Statement.another_richard said:
Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.0 -
I doubt if Johnson, Gove, and Hoey are The Third Reich Reborn.Roger said:
If a movement is led almost exclusively by a rag tag of racists fascists and opportunists it's reasonable to wonder whether it's for you. Moreover if their publicity material is overtly racist it's reasonable to expect non racists to have nothing to do with it. Otherwise you're no different to those who joined the Nazi Party because they wanted the trains to run on time.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.
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But out the opposite way to which they have traditionally have been.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
Or perhaps it was just a coincidence that they repeatedly predicted a better outcome than the out-turn while George Osborne was Chancellor
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That switch happened in about 2014/15, IIRC - so not all down to the Genius.another_richard said:
But out the opposite way to which they have traditionally have been.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
Or perhaps it was just a coincidence that they repeatedly predicted a better outcome than the out-turn while George Osborne was Chancellor0 -
And about £16bn lower than the OBR forecast in Hammond's March 2017 Budget.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's about £2.5bn lower than the OBR figures Hammond read out last month in the Spring Statement.another_richard said:
Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.
The OBR were rather behind the curve this year.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...0 -
Judging by the PSF figured I'd guess that GDP for Q1 was about 0.3%, a definite slowdown compared to last year in tax take. However, it looks like things are picking up again towards the end of the quarter.0
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Did Corbyn criticize Gordon Brown for calling for "British Jobs For British Workers" ?tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
I ask because I don't recall any Labour MPs complaining at the time.0 -
I am not pompous Tyson - I just do not like unnecssary bad language which in almost every case deminishes the argument.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
And the attack is coming from the labour benches with the recent debate witnessing the distress of labour mps, some in tears, and most of them support remain
We just need to be kinder to one another0 -
It's inevitable that Labour's opponents will use this as a stick to beat the party with.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
But, a lot of unhappiness over this issue comes from within Labour.0 -
Goes down well with women I understandSean_F said:
Lord Rennard is a strong campaigner.Gardenwalker said:The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.
Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.0 -
£2 per person per day.Sandpit said:
Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
You can make the number look big or small.0 -
When he only takes a principled stand against some sorts of racism and ignores or takes a more lenient line against other sorts - consistently - that is in itself not only racist but hypocritical to boot.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...0 -
£3.50 per working age person/dayTheWhiteRabbit said:
£2 per person per day.Sandpit said:
Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
You can make the number look big or small.0 -
You make that sound like a bad thing.Sandpit said:
Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
Actually, it is a bad thing, though not as bad as you imply. As long as the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or falling over the economic cycle, or already low, there's not a problem - and a nominal 2.1% deficit would be sustainable on that basis. The problems are (1) that the ratio has increased enormously since this point in the last cycle, so even if the structural deficit had closed, it would need to be brought into a structural surplus to undo that damage; and (2) at this stage in the cycle, the government should really be running at balance or even a small surplus - though at least it's better than the 3% deficit Brown was running.0 -
Incidentally in six out of the last seven years, the ONS has over-estimated borrowing in its April assessment, i.e. when we look back in a year's time we may no longer believe we borrowed £42bn this year.
In four cases substantially (~£5bn); in the other two and the one where it underestimated it, the margin was <£2bn.0 -
Are there posters on this site who "reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism" to you? If so, I am amazed you'd want to spend time here.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselvesRoger said:
Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.SquareRoot said:Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
Has Corbyn time and time again taken a principled stand against racism? I'd be interested to see some concrete examples. My strong impression is that he doesn't give much of a toss either way about it, and that in the specific case of anti-semitism he is so strongly anti-Zionist that he is never going to question too closely the motives of anyone on the same side as him.0 -
Or half an hour’s work at minimum wage, per working age person, per day. Not to pay for government spending, but to pay for their overspending.MaxPB said:
£3.50 per working age person/dayTheWhiteRabbit said:
£2 per person per day.Sandpit said:
Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.Sean_F said:Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
You can make the number look big or small.0 -
And OBR have been even further out.TheWhiteRabbit said:Incidentally in six out of the last seven years, the ONS has over-estimated borrowing in its April assessment, i.e. when we look back in a year's time we may no longer believe we borrowed £42bn this year.
In four cases substantially (~£5bn); in the other two and the one where it underestimated it, the margin was <£2bn.</p>0
