politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show tha
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show that they are still in the game
We are now three years on from the end of the Coalition and it is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue. For the Lib Dems next week’s local elections are an opportunity to show that they are starting to recover at least at local level.
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This is becoming blooming annoying.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/988550226498801664?s=21
I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-labour-conservative-brexit-jewish/530046/
It is especially interesting as it mentions that mural. I didn't know people were aware of it at the time of the election (I certainly wasn't).
Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
They may return but not this time around.
That may be a part of the problem
Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
Once that ideal came into contact with reality, however, it was always a certainty that everyone would be disappointed. Turns out they were just like every other political party.
Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.
Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
https://twitter.com/RichardatKF/status/988665229805522944
The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
Oddly, the Conservatives no longer have a single seat in Watford borough, despite holding the Parliamentary seat.
The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as
caretakerleader.In the Home Counties they are also playing the NIMBY card and opposing any development and new housing in the greenbelt and countryside and indeed in a number of brownbelt sites too as I know as I am currently challenging the LD incumbent in my ward in Essex.
Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/988669627344523264
Well, nice to see a thread about the LDs and so many people wishing the Party well and thinking they aren't too bad...
Yeah, right.
In terms of London, the best result would be to end the night controlling Kingston, Richmond and Sutton. That hasn't happened as often as you might think - I can only think of 1994-98 and 2006-10 when all three Boroughs were under LD control at the same time. Beyond that, rather as with the Conservatives, it's going to be a case of trying to hold back the Labour onslaught in a few Wards here and there.
Outside London, I don't know. I would be looking to see signs of recovery in existing and previous areas of strength. I'd like to think South Lakeland would be held and a few other gains in other places.
Oddly enough, the next time these seats are contested "could" be alongside the GE.
The current "Councils" score in London is LAB 20, CON 9, LD 1, NOC 2.
Guido does seem to be demanding TM puts her Premiership on the line but I doubt she will as the maths simply do not add up and by sacrificing herself it would prove a pointless exercise as no other conservative leader could confound the inevitability of the end result.
TM is stubborn and will continue to demand we leave the customs union but once it becomes apparent to all she will respond by accepting the will of the HOC and do the deal accordingly and receive overwhelming HOC and HOL support leaving the hard Brexiteers shouting from the roof tops but frankly with complete impotency
Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/988685120868675584
Surely that’s a benefit?
Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.
Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.
PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
Plenty of reasons why it makes no difference who the LD leader is at this time. Vince is fine as a caretaker for now.
May and Corbyn are, as we can see on here, hugely polarising figures. The fear or should that be stark terror of a Corbyn-led Government holds the Conservatives together and prevents much fragmentation (may be different at a local level). On the other side, those desperate to see the end of the Conservatives for whatever reason recognise Corbyn is the only game in town.
The LDs have "form" with the Conservatives and can't be "trusted". Thus politics is frozen in glacis while Corbyn is Labour leader. Replacing May with A.N Other or S.O Else won't make a lot of difference to the Conservative numbers.
Remove Corbyn and a lot will start to change - picking the "right" leader (and Labour is not without talent on its front and back benches) would make May look out of place and out of touch. As both Blair and Wilson discovered, the key to Labour winning is to make Labour look modern and relevant and make the Conservatives look irrelevant and dated.
Without a strong leader, I suppose internecine squabbling over minor differences is unavoidable, though.
Upended everything I thought I knew about the UKs political geography.
On the other hand, for the electoral prospects of the Tories, the sooner they put Brexit behind them, the better. It's extremely divisive both among their politicians and their voters. Arguably the only thing keeping the centre from fleeing away from Corbyn towards then is the remainer antipathy towards the Tories (I know a few people here find this baffling, given that Labour also backs Brexit, but it is nonetheless the case).
As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.
https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/988438575690801152
I'm so old I remember the days when LD bar charts were coherently dishonest.
Why would people vote Conservative if they can't afford to own a house where they live and when a Conservative government encourages ever higher house prices.
Incidentally I think the OBR must have revised up their growth forecasts
Shouting "racist" is no substitute for a coherent argument. If Remain had considered that, if Cameron hadn't wibbled about "Little Englanders", they would've, as widely expected, won.
As for fascists, that's an entertaining claim given you've just opined Corbyn should tell Jewish leaders to **** off.
Or perhaps it was just a coincidence that they repeatedly predicted a better outcome than the out-turn while George Osborne was Chancellor
The OBR were rather behind the curve this year.
Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?
By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
I ask because I don't recall any Labour MPs complaining at the time.
And the attack is coming from the labour benches with the recent debate witnessing the distress of labour mps, some in tears, and most of them support remain
We just need to be kinder to one another
But, a lot of unhappiness over this issue comes from within Labour.
You can make the number look big or small.
Actually, it is a bad thing, though not as bad as you imply. As long as the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or falling over the economic cycle, or already low, there's not a problem - and a nominal 2.1% deficit would be sustainable on that basis. The problems are (1) that the ratio has increased enormously since this point in the last cycle, so even if the structural deficit had closed, it would need to be brought into a structural surplus to undo that damage; and (2) at this stage in the cycle, the government should really be running at balance or even a small surplus - though at least it's better than the 3% deficit Brown was running.
In four cases substantially (~£5bn); in the other two and the one where it underestimated it, the margin was <£2bn.
Has Corbyn time and time again taken a principled stand against racism? I'd be interested to see some concrete examples. My strong impression is that he doesn't give much of a toss either way about it, and that in the specific case of anti-semitism he is so strongly anti-Zionist that he is never going to question too closely the motives of anyone on the same side as him.