politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May now level-pegging with “Don’t know” as to who woul
Comments
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A big issue with such conspiracy theories is that it was the 'Arab Spring' and not the 'Syria Spring'. Most of the countries in the region had problems and uprisings at various scales, including Saudi itself.Barnesian said:
Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline in 2009 and the fomenting of the Sunni uprising began. The discovery of the Leviathan field came later.rcs1000 said:
Ummm: that article (from 2016) doesn't mention that Israel made a massive off-shore gas discovery (Leviathan). Which is a bit odd, because Israel becoming an energy exporter is a much bigger change to the regional balance of power (and Israel's role) than a putative Syrian gas pipeline.Barnesian said:There probably are many contributory factors. I'm basing my claim on the article by Robert F Kennedy Jnr published in Politico Magazine in 2012 which changed my views on Syria.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/rfk-jr-why-arabs-dont-trust-america-213601
"Assad enraged the Gulf’s Sunni monarchs by endorsing a Russian-approved “Islamic pipeline” running from Iran’s side of the gas field through Syria and to the ports of Lebanon. The Islamic pipeline would make Shiite Iran, not Sunni Qatar, the principal supplier to the European energy market and dramatically increase Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and the world. Israel also was understandably determined to derail the Islamic pipeline, which would enrich Iran and Syria and presumably strengthen their proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link"
Indeed, even without a civil war, Israel will be exporting gas to Egypt and Europe five years before the gas pipeline could be realistically constructed. (Indeed, I'd doubt whether the pipeline makes any kind of economic sense in a world where Israel is the low cost Mediterranean gas producer.)
Instead of it being some grand evil plan, IMO it's much more likely to have been a natural consequence of people being forced to live under dictators or bad governments, coupled with modern communication devices that the governments could not control. And when a small trigger occurred, news spread and the governments could not control events.
I'm not saying that other countries did not stick their oar in when troubles started, but I think the actual protests were fairly organic and disorganised. Modern communications were the key.0 -
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Yes. Poor Syria. It is the focus of a Saudi/Iranian sponsored Sunni/Shia religious war, and a US/Russia sponsored oil and gas war. And Assad, the former opthalmologist, has gone berserk and is gassing his people.Sandpit said:
It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.Barnesian said:
Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline in 2009 and the fomenting of the Sunni uprising began. The discovery of the Leviathan field came later.rcs1000 said:
Ummm: that article (from 2016) doesn't mention that Israel made a massive off-shore gas discovery (Leviathan). Which is a bit odd, because Israel becoming an energy exporter is a much bigger change to the regional balance of power (and Israel's role) than a putative Syrian gas pipeline.Barnesian said:There probably are many contributory factors. I'm basing my claim on the article by Robert F Kennedy Jnr published in Politico Magazine in 2012 which changed my views on Syria.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/rfk-jr-why-arabs-dont-trust-america-213601
"Assad enraged the Gulf’s Sunni monarchs by endorsing a Russian-approved “Islamic pipeline” running from Iran’s side of the gas field through Syria and to the ports of Lebanon. The Islamic pipeline would make Shiite Iran, not Sunni Qatar, the principal supplier to the European energy market and dramatically increase Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and the world. Israel also was understandably determined to derail the Islamic pipeline, which would enrich Iran and Syria and presumably strengthen their proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link"
Indeed, even without a civil war, Israel will be exporting gas to Egypt and Europe five years before the gas pipeline could be realistically constructed. (Indeed, I'd doubt whether the pipeline makes any kind of economic sense in a world where Israel is the low cost Mediterranean gas producer.)0 -
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)0 -
This version?Freggles said:
Creepy. I just finished watching Dr Strangelove!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Accidentally brutally struck himself by cruise missiles whilst shaving?Charles said:
An unfortunate accident (assisted)?Y0kel said:
I'd be wary. Its the aircraft overhead bit that seems odd. Its a fair distance and angle of attack. Could just be a storeman having an unfortunate incident.Yorkcity said:
Who would it be this evening Israel ?Y0kel said:Reports of explosions at a large Iranian facility near Aleppo in Syria. Stories have it that aircraft were heard overhead, which seems a little surprising.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/985092237162962945?s=190 -
Yup. Is a response to this. From a Durham Uni Law Professor.MarkHopkins said:
https://twitter.com/welshracer/status/985194258004107266?s=210 -
Oh yes, and those annoying energy efficiency laws are reducing electrical demand.rcs1000 said:
The Russians have been the at the forefront of pushing "anti-fracking" laws in Eastern Europe, via various front organisations and - I suspect - direct payments to politicians.Sandpit said:It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.
But despite all that, Russia's strangehold on energy supplies to Eastern Europe will continue to wane. Norway's gas production is rising, Israel is coming on stream next year, and everyone is building LNG import terminals to benefit from new supplies from the US and Africa. (And the rise of Australian LNG means that gas from the Gulf will be increasingly directed towards Europe.)
The moves to renewables in Europe - while they have sucked for many consumers - have had a similar effect.
The Russian noose around Eastern Europe is slowly loosening.0 -
Antidepressant use is actually quite considerable in London but at only half the levels of other parts of the UK. And many of London's poor (migrants) are living in conditions far better than those they grew up in. I can't help but feel much of the metropolitan bourgeoisie rather likes having a working class who seem grateful for their position.rcs1000 said:
That's a fabulous chart. Clearly not being able to afford a house is not affecting Londoners happiness.FrankBooth said:I wonder how well this correlates with Brexit.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/antidepressants-england-uk-prescribed-most-north-east-rises-seven-times-prescriptions-depression-a7680836.html
In a way it isn't that surprising that economic failure would make people miserable and that those with optimism and drive would head where the jobs are. Those who were in a state of disbelief on 24th June 2016 might consider that there are parts of England where antidepressant use is nearly 10% of the population.0 -
IMV the gassing is not the major thing Assad should be going on trail at the Hague for (*) His prison camps are rather dire.Barnesian said:
Yes. Poor Syria. It is the focus of a Saudi/Iranian sponsored Sunni/Shia religious war, and a US/Russia sponsored oil and gas war. And Assad, the former opthalmologist, has gone berserk and is gassing his people.Sandpit said:
It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.Barnesian said:
Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline in 2009 and the fomenting of the Sunni uprising began. The discovery of the Leviathan field came later.rcs1000 said:
Ummm: that article (from 2016) doesn't mention that Israel made a massive off-shore gas discovery (Leviathan). Which is a bit odd, because Israel becoming an energy exporter is a much bigger change to the regional balance of power (and Israel's role) than a putative Syrian gas pipeline.Barnesian said:There probably are many contributory factors. I'm basing my claim on the article by Robert F Kennedy Jnr published in Politico Magazine in 2012 which changed my views on Syria.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/rfk-jr-why-arabs-dont-trust-america-213601
"Assad enraged the Gulf’s Sunni monarchs by endorsing a Russian-approved “Islamic pipeline” running from Iran’s side of the gas field through Syria and to the ports of Lebanon. The Islamic pipeline would make Shiite Iran, not Sunni Qatar, the principal supplier to the European energy market and dramatically increase Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and the world. Israel also was understandably determined to derail the Islamic pipeline, which would enrich Iran and Syria and presumably strengthen their proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link"
Indeed, even without a civil war, Israel will be exporting gas to Egypt and Europe five years before the gas pipeline could be realistically constructed. (Indeed, I'd doubt whether the pipeline makes any kind of economic sense in a world where Israel is the low cost Mediterranean gas producer.)
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/12/16/if-dead-could-speak/mass-deaths-and-torture-syrias-detention-facilities
(*) It won't happen.0 -
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
A busted flush is something which looks really good until the last moment and then fails. Is that how you see TMay? Sounds more like Corbyn to me. I'm afraid that OGH's rule is infallible: never mind VI, look at the leader ratings. Corbyn has had his annus mirabilis in 2017, it wasn't quite mirabilis enough, and that was as good as it gets for him. He looks increasingly like what he is, a tired and silly old man.murali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)0 -
Tonight's polls would imply 17 Labour gains from the Tories. A further 15 gains from SNP & Plaid would be likely taking Labour to circa 295.0
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Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
That's of doubtful significance for a GE more than four years away as you well know.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May rises
0 -
16% of the population are morons...Corbyn dealing with Putin would involve him inviting him over and bending over why Vlad rammed his own allotment produce up the proverbial.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
The beer goggles of polling?Ishmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
42% brainwashedFrancisUrquhart said:
16% of the population are morons...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
James CallaghanIshmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
Off you pop back to Infowars...bigjohnowls said:
42% brainwashedFrancisUrquhart said:
16% of the population are morons...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
You'd have to ask OGH, it's his theory and has had remarkable predictive ability in at least the last two GEs. Recent thread: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/leader-approval-ratings/Foxy said:
The beer goggles of polling?Ishmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
Read the Guardian report on this pollFoxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=19
Not a good look for Corbyn0 -
Before my time.bigjohnowls said:
James CallaghanIshmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
So this is why Charlie Elphicke was suspended
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/9852619219129835530 -
FU for wars!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Off you pop back to Infowars...bigjohnowls said:
42% brainwashedFrancisUrquhart said:
16% of the population are morons...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
Yes, Europe needs to get fracking and yesterday, hopefully recent events are showing the need to accelerate the move away from depending on the Bear to keep the heating on next winter.rcs1000 said:
The Russians have been the at the forefront of pushing "anti-fracking" laws in Eastern Europe, via various front organisations and - I suspect - direct payments to politicians.Sandpit said:It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.
But despite all that, Russia's strangehold on energy supplies to Eastern Europe will continue to wane. Norway's gas production is rising, Israel is coming on stream next year, and everyone is building LNG import terminals to benefit from new supplies from the US and Africa. (And the rise of Australian LNG means that gas from the Gulf will be increasingly directed towards Europe.)
The moves to renewables in Europe - while they have sucked for many consumers - have had a similar effect.
The Russian noose around Eastern Europe is slowly loosening.
I didn’t know until today about the scale of the new Israeli field, for some unknown reason it doesn’t get talked about much in the Gulf!0 -
Bizarre. You keep accusing me of supporting various wars, which I have never done. Keep drinking the KoolAid.bigjohnowls said:
FU for wars!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Off you pop back to Infowars...bigjohnowls said:
42% brainwashedFrancisUrquhart said:
16% of the population are morons...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Who do you trust to deal with RussiaBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
May 42% Corbyn 16%0 -
rcs - I'm surprised we don't spend more time debating international politics in relation to energy security. Who do people think is running the Kremlin and the middle east? I still haven't made up my mind about European fracking but all the banning seems hasty. I mean if it is uneconomic, fine.
Heard very little about Hinkley recently. Always suspicious that it wouldn't be operationally independent of the Chinese.0 -
And Ted Heath trailing Harold Wilson in 1970.bigjohnowls said:
James CallaghanIshmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
Except leadership ratings changed dramatically in the campaign, negating their significance at more distal time intervals.Ishmael_Z said:
You'd have to ask OGH, it's his theory and has had remarkable predictive ability in at least the last two GEs. Recent thread: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/leader-approval-ratings/Foxy said:
The beer goggles of polling?Ishmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=190 -
Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
0 -
Photographs!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html0 -
Interesting twitter thread here on why Ted Heath won in 1970, but lost in 1974:justin124 said:
And Ted Heath trailing Harold Wilson in 1970.bigjohnowls said:
James CallaghanIshmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=19
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/984831502092570631?s=190 -
But his ratings are still much higher than a year ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Read the Guardian report on this pollFoxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=19
Not a good look for Corbyn
Back in the 1967 - 1969 period the Tories enjoyed huge poll leads of 20% plus yet Heath invariably lagged Wilson in personal popularity. Heath still won the 1970 election.
0 -
I seemed to remember an MP during the expenses scandal went to prison for something similar.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html0 -
The Hague Court has been a disaster for humanity. In the past you could bung a dictator $250m and send him to live in Switzerland.JosiasJessop said:
IMV the gassing is not the major thing Assad should be going on trail at the Hague for (*) His prison camps are rather dire.Barnesian said:
Yes. Poor Syria. It is the focus of a Saudi/Iranian sponsored Sunni/Shia religious war, and a US/Russia sponsored oil and gas war. And Assad, the former opthalmologist, has gone berserk and is gassing his people.Sandpit said:
It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.Barnesian said:
Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline in 2009 and the fomenting of the Sunni uprising began. The discovery of the Leviathan field came later.rcs1000 said:
Ummm: that article (from 2016) doesn't mention that Israel made a massive off-shore gas discovery (Leviathan). Which is a bit odd, because Israel becoming an energy exporter is a much bigger change to the regional balance of power (and Israel's role) than a putative Syrian gas pipeline.Barnesian said:There probably are many contributory factors. I'm basing my claim on the article by Robert F Kennedy Jnr published in Politico Magazine in 2012 which changed my views on Syria.
Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link"
Indeed, even without a civil war, Israel will be exporting gas to Egypt and Europe five years before the gas pipeline could be realistically constructed. (Indeed, I'd doubt whether the pipeline makes any kind of economic sense in a world where Israel is the low cost Mediterranean gas producer.)
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/12/16/if-dead-could-speak/mass-deaths-and-torture-syrias-detention-facilities
(*) It won't happen.
Now, with The Hague, there is no incentive for them to do a deal so they all fight to the death.0 -
Yup, the man OGH beat in an election, Gabble Denis MacShane.FrancisUrquhart said:
I seemed to remember an MP during the expenses scandal went to prison for something similar.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html0 -
I might be wrong, but wasn't there also another Labour MP who claimed he had a load of work done but the company never existed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, the man OGH beat in an election, Gabble Denis MacShane.FrancisUrquhart said:
I seemed to remember an MP during the expenses scandal went to prison for something similar.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Edit - Jim Devine.0 -
It's potentially even bigger than the quoted numbers. There are two more layers which show up bright on seismic which have not yet been drilled. Now, I know I've done too much hanging around energy company managements, but if these two layers are productive as the higher ones, and if there are no technical challenges (both of these are big ifs), then Leviathan could be the second largest conventional gas field in the world behind the Qatar/Iranian one.Sandpit said:
Yes, Europe needs to get fracking and yesterday, hopefully recent events are showing the need to accelerate the move away from depending on the Bear to keep the heating on next winter.rcs1000 said:
The Russians have been the at the forefront of pushing "anti-fracking" laws in Eastern Europe, via various front organisations and - I suspect - direct payments to politicians.Sandpit said:It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.
But despite all that, Russia's strangehold on energy supplies to Eastern Europe will continue to wane. Norway's gas production is rising, Israel is coming on stream next year, and everyone is building LNG import terminals to benefit from new supplies from the US and Africa. (And the rise of Australian LNG means that gas from the Gulf will be increasingly directed towards Europe.)
The moves to renewables in Europe - while they have sucked for many consumers - have had a similar effect.
The Russian noose around Eastern Europe is slowly loosening.
I didn’t know until today about the scale of the new Israeli field, for some unknown reason it doesn’t get talked about much in the Gulf!0 -
There was a speccy article on exactly that a few years back. Idi Amin was the example given of the alternative route.Charles said:
The Hague Court has been a disaster for humanity. In the past you could bung a dictator $250m and send him to live in Switzerland.JosiasJessop said:
IMV the gassing is not the major thing Assad should be going on trail at the Hague for (*) His prison camps are rather dire.Barnesian said:
Yes. Poor Syria. It is the focus of a Saudi/Iranian sponsored Sunni/Shia religious war, and a US/Russia sponsored oil and gas war. And Assad, the former opthalmologist, has gone berserk and is gassing his people.Sandpit said:
It’s also a large part of why Russia is involved. They’re quite happy with a monopoly gas pipeline to Europe, and a perpetual war blocking the alternate supply way from the Gulf.Barnesian said:
Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline in 2009 and the fomenting of the Sunni uprising began. The discovery of the Leviathan field came later.rcs1000 said:
Ummm: that article (from 2016) doesn't mention that Israel made a massive off-shore gas discovery (Leviathan). Which is a bit odd, because Israel becoming an energy exporter is a much bigger change to the regional balance of power (and Israel's role) than a putative Syrian gas pipeline.Barnesian said:There probably are many contributory factors. I'm basing my claim on the article by Robert F Kennedy Jnr published in Politico Magazine in 2012 which changed my views on Syria.
Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link"
Indeed, even without a civil war, Israel will be exporting gas to Egypt and Europe five years before the gas pipeline could be realistically constructed. (Indeed, I'd doubt whether the pipeline makes any kind of economic sense in a world where Israel is the low cost Mediterranean gas producer.)
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/12/16/if-dead-could-speak/mass-deaths-and-torture-syrias-detention-facilities
(*) It won't happen.
Now, with The Hague, there is no incentive for them to do a deal so they all fight to the death.0 -
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
So many Labour MPs went to prison over expenses it is hard to remember them all, I think the chap you're thinking about was Jim Devine.FrancisUrquhart said:
I might be wrong, but wasn't there also another Labour MP who claimed he had a load of work done but the company never existed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, the man OGH beat in an election, Gabble Denis MacShane.FrancisUrquhart said:
I seemed to remember an MP during the expenses scandal went to prison for something similar.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html0 -
Brecon and Radnorshire was representative of the UK, it voted Leave 51.9%rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.
0 -
Very interesting, thanks for posting.Foxy said:
Interesting twitter thread here on why Ted Heath won in 1970, but lost in 1974:justin124 said:
And Ted Heath trailing Harold Wilson in 1970.bigjohnowls said:
James CallaghanIshmael_Z said:
Ignore VI, look at leader ratings.Foxy said:
Not according to tonights ComRes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know Corbyn is diving in the polls as May risesmurali_s said:
Good for you but the Tories are still a busted flush.steve_garner said:
It's more than enough of a reason for me. TSE's Harry Kane post deserves some accolades.murali_s said:
Jeremy Corbyn or equivalent will be next our PM. The Tories are a busted flush - why would you vote for them?FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza's Putin Puppet routine isn't doing him any harm. He like Oasis during Brit Pop, as Noel said he could record himself doing a shit and the kids would still buy a million copies.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985232758271131648
(And stopping JC is not a strong enough reason)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985238761641398272?s=19
or OpRes:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985246196582240256?s=19
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/984831502092570631?s=190 -
8,000 + majority (19.5%)rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
Jezza will still not be convinced,
Compelling new details emerged from Paris as the French government presented a declassified report from its DGSE overseas intelligence service, the equivalent of MI6.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616485/French-MI6-dossier-reveals-44-incidents-toxic-agents-used-combat.html0 -
A 10% swing away from the government would be a fairly average mid-term result.Big_G_NorthWales said:
8,000 + majority (19.5%)rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
Next door to Lembit's old seat.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brecon and Radnorshire was representative of the UK, it voted Leave 51.9%rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
Even by SLAB standards Jim Devine was a real piece of shite.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many Labour MPs went to prison over expenses it is hard to remember them all, I think the chap you're thinking about was Jim Devine.FrancisUrquhart said:
I might be wrong, but wasn't there also another Labour MP who claimed he had a load of work done but the company never existed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, the man OGH beat in an election, Gabble Denis MacShane.FrancisUrquhart said:
I seemed to remember an MP during the expenses scandal went to prison for something similar.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
An office bully, fraudster, bankrupt, drink-driver and thief.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Devine0 -
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-437485130 -
UKIP confirms Gerard Batten as new leader AND he immediately announces his resignation...
Unfortunately the best you can get on BF is 1.01...0 -
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.0 -
Seriously? Someone needs to put UKIP out of its misery.TheWhiteRabbit said:UKIP confirms Gerard Batten as new leader AND he immediately announces his resignation...
Unfortunately the best you can get on BF is 1.01...0 -
I can't agree.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
As a matter of companies law, his oversight is nothing. It would be very unlikely to result in anything happening at all.
As a matter of parliamentary position, his interest was properly declared to the Cabinet Office.
Yet in some way you put the two together and it's a resigning matter? C0 -
Haven't the LDs been underperforming in Wales though? They had a bigger drop in their share there (though admittedly higher than the share overall I believe) and have dropped to a single seat in the Assembly as well. Contrast with their low share but ability to highly target seats in Scotland.rcs1000 said:
A 10% swing away from the government would be a fairly average mid-term result.Big_G_NorthWales said:
8,000 + majority (19.5%)rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
That is a matter for the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards to now decide, if he decides against Hunt he will have to resignTheWhiteRabbit said:
I can't agree.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
As a matter of companies law, his oversight is nothing. It would be very unlikely to result in anything happening at all.
As a matter of parliamentary position, his interest was properly declared to the Cabinet Office.
Yet in some way you put the two together and it's a resigning matter? C0 -
I think if a Labour minister had made the same error, Hunt would call for their resignation saying at best it showed they were unable to properly handle simple administrative issues.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can't agree.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
As a matter of companies law, his oversight is nothing. It would be very unlikely to result in anything happening at all.
As a matter of parliamentary position, his interest was properly declared to the Cabinet Office.
Yet in some way you put the two together and it's a resigning matter? C
I'm not out for heads, and I don't have an issue with Hunt, but I think he would not be so kind on his opponents if they did this. If the Commissioner thinks it is serious enough, he will struggle, and would have only himself to blame.0 -
Just reading the last 100 or so comments, makes me wonder which alternative reality so many live in! So, just for the record, there is now a high possibility that May will be forced to resign within the next 30 days, MP's and the country are not happy bunnies about Westminster not being consulted about the bombing of Syria, whether they agreed or not, and May looking like Trump's poodle, not a good look. While Hunt forgetting about buying 7 luxury flats while a record of him claiming 27p for a half mile car drive. Then there is still Boris, still SOS Foreign Office, still in cabinet, still an MP with delusions of being PM. And Liam Fox, Amber Rudd, and so many others
As for SLab winning 15 SNP seats, beginning to think it is very much to look an under estimate. SLab is now stealing the SNP's majority left wing votes while Sturgeon is noe aiming for a right wing NZ economy to placate her north east Scotland electorate (and her party's bank rollers) but not her majority central belt voters.0 -
This is like getting to your car and realising you haven't paid for your baked beans, so you walk back in and just get quizzical looks as you attempt to apologise for something none of the staff realise has actually happened. All they're going to let you do is pay for it as per usual.kle4 said:
I think if a Labour minister had made the same error, Hunt would call for their resignation saying at best it showed they were unable to properly handle simple administrative issues.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can't agree.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
As a matter of companies law, his oversight is nothing. It would be very unlikely to result in anything happening at all.
As a matter of parliamentary position, his interest was properly declared to the Cabinet Office.
Yet in some way you put the two together and it's a resigning matter? C
I'm not out for heads, and I don't have an issue with Hunt, but I think he would not be so kind on his opponents if they did this. If the Commissioner thinks it is serious enough, he will struggle, and would have only himself to blame.
I have no idea what Hunt would say if it were a Labour minister but two wrongs don't make a right.0 -
If it is so insignificant it shouldn't have been so bloody difficult for him to do it properly in the first place to avoid this hassle now then. If the Commissioner thinks it is not big deal I'm sure he'll survive, but I don't really see how having to admit to being someone who cannot handle simple administrative concerns (or cannot find an accountant to manage it) is not at the least very embarrassing.TheWhiteRabbit said:
This is like getting to your car and realising you haven't paid for your baked beans, so you walk back in and just get quizzical looks as you attempt to apologise for something none of the staff realise has actually happened. All they're going to let you do is pay for it as per usual.kle4 said:
I think if a Labour minister had made the same error, Hunt would call for their resignation saying at best it showed they were unable to properly handle simple administrative issues.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can't agree.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
As a matter of companies law, his oversight is nothing. It would be very unlikely to result in anything happening at all.
As a matter of parliamentary position, his interest was properly declared to the Cabinet Office.
Yet in some way you put the two together and it's a resigning matter? C
I'm not out for heads, and I don't have an issue with Hunt, but I think he would not be so kind on his opponents if they did this. If the Commissioner thinks it is serious enough, he will struggle, and would have only himself to blame.0 -
Why would that result in May resigning within 30 days? Apparently the Cabinet members were on board, so we'd need a flurry of more backbenchers forcing a challenge, since how could a Cabinet Minister try replacing her when they supported the course of action?OchEye said:Just reading the last 100 or so comments, makes me wonder which alternative reality so many live in! So, just for the record, there is now a high possibility that May will be forced to resign within the next 30 days, MP's and the country are not happy bunnies about Westminster not being consulted about the bombing of Syria, whether they agreed or not, and May looking like Trump's poodle, not a good look. .
And how do we know the country are not happy about Westminster not being consulted? Polls on taking action show an at best divided view on tacking any, and there's a good chance it will be unpopular, but I struggle to see why most people would take a view on a piece of constitutional arcana about whether she should have consulted parliament first, and even if the public do think that is significant, what evidence has emerged to support that in the 14 hours since it happened? I don't care about that issue, and I don't even support taking the strikes. I may be atypical in that, but how would I know?
0 -
High possibility of May resigning in the next30 days? Hm, okay. I assume you've wagered accordingly.OchEye said:Just reading the last 100 or so comments, makes me wonder which alternative reality so many live in! So, just for the record, there is now a high possibility that May will be forced to resign within the next 30 days, MP's and the country are not happy bunnies about Westminster not being consulted about the bombing of Syria, whether they agreed or not, and May looking like Trump's poodle, not a good look. While Hunt forgetting about buying 7 luxury flats while a record of him claiming 27p for a half mile car drive. Then there is still Boris, still SOS Foreign Office, still in cabinet, still an MP with delusions of being PM. And Liam Fox, Amber Rudd, and so many others
As for SLab winning 15 SNP seats, beginning to think it is very much to look an under estimate. SLab is now stealing the SNP's majority left wing votes while Sturgeon is noe aiming for a right wing NZ economy to placate her north east Scotland electorate (and her party's bank rollers) but not her majority central belt voters.0 -
What did Gardiner say about Labours position on Brexit?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/labour-councillors-standing-election-pledge-help-stop-brexit/
Bollocks I believe
0 -
Blair never consulted Parliament when he just launched bombing campaigns and Macron was right beside May and Trump in launching strikes.OchEye said:Just reading the last 100 or so comments, makes me wonder which alternative reality so many live in! So, just for the record, there is now a high possibility that May will be forced to resign within the next 30 days, MP's and the country are not happy bunnies about Westminster not being consulted about the bombing of Syria, whether they agreed or not, and May looking like Trump's poodle, not a good look. While Hunt forgetting about buying 7 luxury flats while a record of him claiming 27p for a half mile car drive. Then there is still Boris, still SOS Foreign Office, still in cabinet, still an MP with delusions of being PM. And Liam Fox, Amber Rudd, and so many others
As for SLab winning 15 SNP seats, beginning to think it is very much to look an under estimate. SLab is now stealing the SNP's majority left wing votes while Sturgeon is noe aiming for a right wing NZ economy to placate her north east Scotland electorate (and her party's bank rollers) but not her majority central belt voters.
0 -
Well, at least councillors don't have to worry about trying to stop Brexit in the one place that it can happen, parliament, so presumably are free to believe Labour's policy is about stopping Brexit if they want.Floater said:What did Gardiner say about Labours position on Brexit?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/labour-councillors-standing-election-pledge-help-stop-brexit/
Bollocks I believe0 -
Lying to the voters then - how very Labourkle4 said:
Well, at least councillors don't have to worry about trying to stop Brexit in the one place that it can happen, parliament, so presumably are free to believe Labour's policy is about stopping Brexit if they want.Floater said:What did Gardiner say about Labours position on Brexit?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/labour-councillors-standing-election-pledge-help-stop-brexit/
Bollocks I believe0 -
Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.0
-
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
Titter. 7 points in a month. Titter.Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
0 -
Fake NewsFrancisUrquhart said:Jezza will still not be convinced,
Compelling new details emerged from Paris as the French government presented a declassified report from its DGSE overseas intelligence service, the equivalent of MI6.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616485/French-MI6-dossier-reveals-44-incidents-toxic-agents-used-combat.html-1 -
The report is fake?bigjohnowls said:
Fake NewsFrancisUrquhart said:Jezza will still not be convinced,
Compelling new details emerged from Paris as the French government presented a declassified report from its DGSE overseas intelligence service, the equivalent of MI6.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616485/French-MI6-dossier-reveals-44-incidents-toxic-agents-used-combat.html0 -
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
Last time I checked she was in governmentFoxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government. 0 -
Could anybody form a government on these numbers? With all the criticism of Con making a deal with the DUP, surely the price for SNP confidence and supply would be too high?Foxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
No, I don't think anyone could form a government. It would be the NOTA result, and a rematch probably with a change of Tory leader months later.kle4 said:
Could anybody form a government on these numbers? With all the criticism of Con making a deal with the DUP, surely the price for SNP confidence and supply would be too high?Foxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
Well, the whole point of polls is snapshotting what happens if another election happens.RobD said:
Last time I checked she was in governmentFoxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.
No sign of Corbynism fading despite the Month of Hate campaign by the Tories. No impact at all, and those May elections coming fast.0 -
Month of Hate?Foxy said:
Well, the whole point of polls is snapshotting what happens if another election happens.RobD said:
Last time I checked she was in governmentFoxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.
No sign of Corbynism fading despite the Month of Hate campaign by the Tories. No impact at all, and those May elections coming fast.0 -
They had some bad headlines which naturally their political opponents emphasised = Month of HateRobD said:
Month of Hate?Foxy said:
Well, the whole point of polls is snapshotting what happens if another election happens.RobD said:
Last time I checked she was in governmentFoxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.
No sign of Corbynism fading despite the Month of Hate campaign by the Tories. No impact at all, and those May elections coming fast.0 -
With Corbyn potentially facing his third general election loss? Worse than Kinnock.Foxy said:
No, I don't think anyone could form a government. It would be the NOTA result, and a rematch probably with a change of Tory leader months later.kle4 said:
Could anybody form a government on these numbers? With all the criticism of Con making a deal with the DUP, surely the price for SNP confidence and supply would be too high?Foxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls then but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again in MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
After gaining another 15 seats and unseating May, I would be surprised if Labour changed leader, though May would be Toast.RobD said:
With Corbyn potentially facing his third general election loss? Worse than Kinnock.Foxy said:
No, I don't think anyone could form a government. It would be the NOTA result, and a rematch probably with a change of Tory leader months later.kle4 said:
Could anybody form a government on these numbers? With all the criticism of Con making a deal with the DUP, surely the price for SNP confidence and supply would be too high?Foxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
Labour was further ahead in the national polls four years ago. But going from national to local always carries a margin of errorHYUFD said:
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls them but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again In MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
0 -
Well I thought it was an appropriate way of describing all the anti-semitic stuff over the last few weeks.kle4 said:
They had some bad headlines which naturally their political opponents emphasised = Month of HateRobD said:
Month of Hate?Foxy said:
Well, the whole point of polls is snapshotting what happens if another election happens.RobD said:
Last time I checked she was in governmentFoxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.
No sign of Corbynism fading despite the Month of Hate campaign by the Tories. No impact at all, and those May elections coming fast.0 -
3.5% swing Labour to Tory in the "Month of Hate".....RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
Imagine what four more years will do. ;-)0 -
Exactly, potentially facing his third general election loss.Foxy said:
After gaining another 15 seats and unseating May, I would be surprised if Labour changed leader, though May would be Toast.RobD said:
With Corbyn potentially facing his third general election loss? Worse than Kinnock.Foxy said:
No, I don't think anyone could form a government. It would be the NOTA result, and a rematch probably with a change of Tory leader months later.kle4 said:
Could anybody form a government on these numbers? With all the criticism of Con making a deal with the DUP, surely the price for SNP confidence and supply would be too high?Foxy said:
It brings it into line with the other polls. Neck and neck on OpRes and Lab 1% ahead on ComRes.RobD said:
The trend is your friendFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
The trend is regression to the mean, and May unable to form a government.0 -
Though it does at least give a chance of Tory net gains from Labour in May, at least outside of LondonTheWhiteRabbit said:
Labour was further ahead in the national polls four years ago. But going from national to local always carries a margin of errorHYUFD said:
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls them but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again In MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
All down to what happens to the UKIP vote? As we've seen, it can go anywhere (or nowhere).HYUFD said:
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls then but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again In MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
Though over 50% of it went to the Tories at GE 2017kle4 said:
All down to what happens to the UKIP vote? As we've seen, it can go anywhere (or nowhere).HYUFD said:
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls then but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again In MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...0 -
It has mostly gone elsewhere in Local byelections including LD, but not long to wait.HYUFD said:
Though over 50% of it went to the Tories at GE 2017kle4 said:
All down to what happens to the UKIP vote? As we've seen, it can go anywhere (or nowhere).HYUFD said:
Neck and neck in pretty much all the polls then but remember in the 2014 local elections Labour won by 2% and it is those wards up again In MayFoxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/985282660384768001?s=19TGOHF said:Is Survation still the gold standard ? Titter.
Con lose 21 seats when Baxtered. Fine by me...
Shadsy has some markets up, not seen much elsewhere.
MOTD over and Saints going down at 5/1 as tipped by me in Jan looks like paying off. Still 1.57 on BF and still looks value. They have a horrible run in.0 -
I think he will be ok. It genuinely does seem like his accountant messed up and this whole thing was only picked up because some academic did a deep dive, had a think, looked up the rules and then wrote to people saying I think he might not be in compliance here.kle4 said:
It sounds like a resigning matter, even if this bit is correct:HYUFD said:
Jeremy Hunt has also been referred to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards now by the Labour PartyTheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43748513
Companies House have said their "primary aim is to seek compliance", suggesting that they are taking a relatively gentle approach in dealing with such oversights which, I'm told, are not uncommon
People rightly pillory political defences which come down to 'I'm a moron' all the time. Pinning it all on the accountant may or may not save him.
Where as Chris Davies (if true) claiming for stuff via false receipts, now that is big big trouble. The authorities can give you a pass / slap on the wrist for not understanding complex compliance rules, making up receipts is a totally different kettle of fish.0 -
0
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Nice to get agreement in the polls with Survation, Opinium and YouGov.0
-
I tend to agree - though the Tories could be saved by a strong Labour campaign in the seat. Brecon & Radnor - albeit on different boundaries - was Labour-held from 1945 - 1979. Labour came close to winning the seat at the 1985 by election.rcs1000 said:
A 10% swing away from the government would be a fairly average mid-term result.Big_G_NorthWales said:
8,000 + majority (19.5%)rcs1000 said:
That is a potentially very serious offence.TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaze is back, I remember how badly it damaged the Tories in the 90s.
A ministerial aide faces the prospect of a police investigation after he was accused of forgery in a new Commons expenses row.
Chris Davies MP has been hit by claims he fabricated invoices for furniture and photographs to decorate his constituency office.
Mr Davies confessed last night to 'a technical breach' of expenses rules but denied trying to claim money to which he was not entitled.
The allegations have been referred to Scotland Yard by the compliance officer of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA), which oversees MPs' expenses.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5616433/Tory-MPs-caught-scandal-harassment-allegations-700-false-expenses-claim.html
Does anyone know how B&R voted in the Brexit referendum? If it were Remain, then I suspect that it would be a LibDem gain at a by-election.0 -
Night all!0
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Except the article says it was never paid? Even the CA whistleblower says it wasn't paid.williamglenn said:
In any case, £40k is a drop in the ocean compared to the difference between Remain and Leave spending.0 -
Welching on invoices is an innovative way to avoid campaign spending limits.RobD said:
Except the article says it was never paid? Even the CA whistleblower says it wasn't paid.williamglenn said:
In any case, £40k is a drop in the ocean compared to the difference between Remain and Leave spending.0
