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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analys

I rather like this approach to looking at the White House race because this is a state battle as we saw in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump made it because he picked up several key states by very small margins.
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What the Democrats need is a new Obama - someone fresh, not a Washington insider.
An influential 2013 forecast by Oxford University said that about 47% of jobs in the US in 2010 and 35% in the UK were at "high risk" of being automated over the following 20 years.
But the OECD puts the US figure at about 10% and the UK's at 12%.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43618620
https://twitter.com/gaywonk/status/980880936551243776
Colour me stunned.
@kylegriffin1: Randy Bryce, the Democrat challenging Paul Ryan, announced his campaign raised $2.1 million in the first quarter of 2018, with nearly $2.3 million cash on hand. (via @playbookplus)
The latest Democratic primary poll has it Biden 27%, Sanders 16%, Winfrey 13%, Clinton 13%, Warren 10%, Booker 4%, Harris 4%, Cuomo 2%, Gillibrand 1%
http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Final_HHP_18Jan2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf
The latest general election poll has Biden leading Trump 56% to 39%, Sanders leading Trump 55% to 39% and Warren leading Trump 51% to 40%
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf
Ooh, what a tease.
Unwinding this without her co-operation would be extremely problematic. Hopefully she will be content to be a king maker.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/980882418302406656
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-media-bias-labour-mainstream-press-lse-study-misrepresentation-we-cant-ignore-bias-a7144381.html
Not exactly a nationally representative sample of academics - most of them seem to work at Goldsmiths...
But that place in the history books may still be a huge motivator for her.
Apparently
Momentum has warned its supporters that accusations of antisemitism in Labour are not rightwing smears or conspiracy, saying unconscious anti-Jewish bias is “more widespread in the Labour party than many of us had understood even a few months ago”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/02/labour-antisemitism-more-widespread-than-thought-momentum-says
Had Sanders won Iowa where he lost by less than 1% he would have almost certainly been nominee given he won NH too. After she then lost the general election to Trump too despite the DNC telling primary activists she was the 'electable' candidate there is near zero chance she will be nominee in 2020, not that she is likely to run anyway
Woudn't so much need to trawl to find 2000 examples of racism would they?
To be frank, she is just not very good at elective politics.
"appeared on national television as a spokesperson for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party."
"a member of the founding national committee of Momentum (the controversial organisation established to support Corbyn's leadership of Labour)"
Or worse, they just don't care.
All these “academics” have achieved is to keep this story top of the news for yet another day.
*Gets more popcorn*.
It is perfectly fine to have bias - but to try to pretend some sort of academic objectivity is where they have come unstuck. They should have signed in a personal rather than professional capacity.
https://twitter.com/daverich1/status/980508833129807877
I doubt they think of themselves as biased. Anyone who disagrees with them is simply 'wrong'.
Being a fair person I stopped it - I'd had my joke.
It was a literal translation of point 23 out of 25.
Okay, Jeremy Thorpe.
http://hurryupharry.org/2011/11/14/sameh-habeeb-and-labour/
Hmm - the problem has been around for a bit longer than momentum would like to admit.
A rocket launches in seven minutes. Watch live at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPQHG-LevZM
Idk if the full Momentum statement featured in the previous links to their comments, but here it is either way. Since they are coming out pretty strong we might just see some action on this issue.
All the 're-education' will be for nought unless Corbyn and his fellow travellers accept that they helped create the problem.
And no, I am not saying they created antisemitism - I am saying that they helped create a situation where it became more acceptable than before to express such views openly within the Labour movement.
Condemnation without action is meaningless. Suspension followed by re-admittance is meaningless. The lack of high profile expulsions and the continued platform sharing/endorsing is what is fuelling things. I do not believe this will change.
https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/980905255570419714
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=habibi
__________________________
However, Momentum’s national coordinating group said it was possible both to accept that antisemitism was a problem on parts of the left while also accepting that Corbyn had been attacked “using this issue as a way to undermine his leadership”.
_________________________
Do people read these things before they use them as attacks?
Not that you feel into the trap yourself TSE.
Interesting video I watched the previous one with Sanders as well, it would seem most good contenders would give Trump a challenge but the real question is who will actually end up as the Democrat nominee. Plenty of suggestions that two of the front runners, Biden and Sanders will not run which would leave a more open field. Difficult to make a call at this point with much certainty.
As the late comedian, Dave Allen, used to say 'May your God go with you'
However, their is a vile section of society on the hard left and hard right that must be called out and where anyone expresses vile views they have to be prevented or expelled from ever being a member of a main stream UK political party. There is no place in society for them
Noted you pound shop Corbynite.
It is perfectly fine to have bias - but to try to pretend some sort of journalistic objectivity is ..........
When I vote Labour, Conservative or green in an election I don't agree with every clause, proposal or policy in the manifesto.
In the same way Yes voters were free to vote Yes without endorsing all the half baked views that were showered over the media and airwaves in support of yes, No voters can not be assumed to endorse the detritus and objectionable views of some No supporters.
To support any campaign or manifesto in totality you need to be a sheep or lemming.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/980911901105418241
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/980911591700008960
I'm interested in why that is.
I've accepted the referendum result, I'm working to make it a success.
This wasn’t a fringe element, this was a central plank of the Leave prospectus.
And now Leave voters who claim to be shocked by Labour anti-Semitism apparently think Leave xenophobia is just fine.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/980911519729897479
So there is no sect - in fact the suggestion that they are a mere sect is a bit heretical - they are the OneTrueFaiith
Sanity will return in time
In alliance with means the DUP confidence and supply deal the Tories have that keeps them in power. Perhaps you missed it.
He apologised in hours took Jezza 6 yrs.
Surely Newsnight should run this as proof of Jezzas racism