politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Playing the long game: what do Labour’s moderates do?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

FF43 said:

"In a statement West Midlands Police said the video is in relation to a trial which is due to start next month.

They said: “A group of men and a woman are accused of running a car registration scam in which the rights to high-value number plates were stolen and offered for sale – some for more than £100,000.

“Khan [the claimed owner of the car] his brother Aamir Khan, 25, and 39-year-old Ayan Ahmed, plus associate Zubair Ahmad, 33, have been charged with conspiracy to commit fraud."

In addition, Zahid and Aamir Khan, face charges of concealing and converting criminal property relating to stolen cars running on false plates.

“And Zahid Khan also stands accused of four counts of fraud by false representation after it’s alleged he failed to declare details on car insurance documents.”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5848430/ferrari-458-spider-crushed-by-police-rogue-landlord-video/amp/

Yes, that was the trial I was referring to.

The_Apocalypse said:

Apparently he’s deleted it now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-43604058?__twitter_impression=true

Except it is all over Sky news just adding to the chaos that is labour just now

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

A Brexit that left free movement in place would have been no Brexit at all for most Leave voters, until we have a decade or so of falling immigration, EEA and the single market will not be an option

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

It was Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 which was the root cause of the rise in anti immigration sentiment, Farage and co just exploited that

As it happens, I think the first of those points is provably untrue. If I get time I will try to put a thread header together on the subject.

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

There were winners and losers from EU membership. It’s easy for the winners to fail to realise the resentment that had built up among the losers, which was shown by the extraordinary turnout for the referendum - when the winners finally realised that they were actually the minority.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I had no idea Lynton Crosby was not just a Remainer, but a #FBPE guy as well:

https://twitter.com/lyntonspins/status/979798301447991298

Still not a fan of him, mind.

Spoof account.

Ah, thanks for that info.

Anazina said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

Indeed. And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.

RodCrosby was a LibDem supporter.

The only time he ever voted Conservative was bizarrely, in 1997.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

There were winners and losers from EU membership. It’s easy for the winners to fail to realise the resentment that had built up among the losers, which was shown by the extraordinary turnout for the referendum - when the winners finally realised that they were actually the minority.

Some, e.g. Brian Eno, have demonstrated the self awareness to realise that sort of thing:

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/jan/23/brian-eno-not-interested-in-talking-about-me-reflection

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

It was Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 which was the root cause of the rise in anti immigration sentiment, Farage and co just exploited that

As it happens, I think the first of those points is provably untrue. If I get time I will try to put a thread header together on the subject.

The number of UKIP MEPs went from 3 in 1999 to 13 in 2009 and that was mainly a result of Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004.

By 2014 UKIP had won the Euro elections with 24 MEPs creating the platform for the Leave referendum victory

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Apparently he’s deleted it now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-43604058?__twitter_impression=true

Except it is all over Sky news just adding to the chaos that is labour just now

Makes John Mcdonnell look the realist .

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

There were winners and losers from EU membership. It’s easy for the winners to fail to realise the resentment that had built up among the losers, which was shown by the extraordinary turnout for the referendum - when the winners finally realised that they were actually the minority.

Meanwhile the Europhobes resolutely deny they had anything to do with pandering to xenophobia. No doubt they’re at a loss as to why two thirds of the country think Britain is more divided than a year ago.

Until Leavers confront their complicity with the Leave campaign’s xenophobic lies, things will only get worse.

Isn't it time that Remainers confront their complicity with the establishment's xenophobic lies - "the locals aren't willing to do the work" for example - used for over a decade as cover for a transfer of wealth and power away from the working class ?

notme said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

There were winners and losers from EU membership. It’s easy for the winners to fail to realise the resentment that had built up among the losers, which was shown by the extraordinary turnout for the referendum - when the winners finally realised that they were actually the minority.

Meanwhile the Europhobes resolutely deny they had anything to do with pandering to xenophobia. No doubt they’re at a loss as to why two thirds of the country think Britain is more divided than a year ago.

Until Leavers confront their complicity with the Leave campaign’s xenophobic lies, things will only get worse.

What were the 'xenophobic lies'? Generally there were lies on both sides, the only real fabrication of truth/misinformation that is outwith the general misinformation put out by the leave and remain campaigns was the £350 million to eu give to nhs bus slogan. Could hardly be considered xenophobic though.

Both Leave campaigns sought successfully to frighten voters with untrue suggestions of millions of Muslims descending on Britain.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

The Remain campaign made it clear that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the CU and SM. I’d be okay with something like the EEA agreement as a staging post to a more international opening up to trade.

That said, a lot of people were taken in by Farage and his ilk, they have seen their lot become noticeably worse over the past decade and when given the opportunity have chosen to roll the dice. Other politicians and commentators displaying a sneering and suck-it-up attitude toward the white working classes exacerbated the problems and undoubtedly contributed to the Leave vote by those who felt that no-one was on their side.

The key group to analyse in the Brexit vote is not the anti-immigration vote. It is the Europhobe vote that decided that pandering to xenophobia was an acceptable price to pay to get out of the EU.

There were winners and losers from EU membership. It’s easy for the winners to fail to realise the resentment that had built up among the losers, which was shown by the extraordinary turnout for the referendum - when the winners finally realised that they were actually the minority.

Meanwhile the Europhobes resolutely deny they had anything to do with pandering to xenophobia. No doubt they’re at a loss as to why two thirds of the country think Britain is more divided than a year ago.

Until Leavers confront their complicity with the Leave campaign’s xenophobic lies, things will only get worse.

Two thirds of people think the country is more divided, precisely because so many in the media and the London-based elites have spent the last year talking about how to overturn democracy.

But, rather like with Corbyn and antisemitism, they still fail to understand that *they* are the ones being divisive.

I should have known you’d blame Remain voters. Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility.

Until Leave supporters address their pandering to xenophobia, the divisions will only deepen.

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

I do not swim in either thank you.

Quite. We’re not all little Farages, many Leavers on here called out his poster on the day it was shown.

Brexit is being implemented on a hardline basis (no single market, no EEA, no customs union) because the so-called moderate Leavers decided that they would rather fall in dutifully behind a xenophobic campaign than not leave at all.

Oh hello, the pub bore has turned up.

66% of the public think Britain is more divided than a year ago. Brexit is poisoning the nation.

This was actually a fascinating thread, with people opening up on a range of matters, until you turned up and just had to turn everything round to your hobby-horse of xenophobic Brexit.

You really are a tiresome litttle monomaniac.

Australia off to a fabulous start in the cricket.

Concede 488 and then stumble to 38-2.

Tim must be feeling much Paine.

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in the mid noughties as HYFUD claims, indeed Pro EU views were in a plurality. It is noticeable that Euroscepticism was in front in the very early Eighties, and is associated with hard economic times much more than migration figures.

Anti-migrant feeling also doesn't relate to numbers coming or going, with high antimigration feeling in the early eighties despite flat or even negative net migration.

When people are skint, they are likely to blame others, and foreigners are a popular choice. On the 5Live phone in on Thursday there was an eloquent former Middleborough steelworker. I was quite sympathetic, but if he thinks that the mills and mines will reopen with high paying working class manufacturing jobs post Brexit, he is going to be sadly disappointed.

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

DM_Andy said:

Trying to go back to the main topic I was thinking of what might change Labour members' view on the antisemitism issue, I feel like if Ed Miliband were to criticise Jeremy Corbyn, then that could harm Corbyn's standing as Labour leader. At the moment, the only MPs that are attacking the leadership's handing of antisemitism are the usual suspects (Woodcock, Berger, Mann, Streeting) and anything they say has long since been tuned out by the Corbyn-supporting majority. It would need someone with some credibility with the membership to change things.

But Ed has been entirely absent from Twitter this week, although we know that last weekend he was at a protest in London about gun laws in the USA.

Has the story completely passed him by?

DM_Andy said:

Trying to go back to the main topic I was thinking of what might change Labour members' view on the antisemitism issue, I feel like if Ed Miliband were to criticise Jeremy Corbyn, then that could harm Corbyn's standing as Labour leader. At the moment, the only MPs that are attacking the leadership's handing of antisemitism are the usual suspects (Woodcock, Berger, Mann, Streeting) and anything they say has long since been tuned out by the Corbyn-supporting majority. It would need someone with some credibility with the membership to change things.

Agreed.

The big winner from Brexit is fireplaces. They are going to be a lot more prominent from now on.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/979852567701278726

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in the mid noughties as HYFUD claims, indeed Pro EU views were in a plurality. It is noticeable that Euroscepticism was in front in the very early Eighties, and is associated with hard economic times much more than migration figures.

Anti-migrant feeling also doesn't relate to numbers coming or going, with high antimigration feeling in the early eighties despite flat or even negative net migration.

When people are skint, they are likely to blame others, and foreigners are a popular choice. On the 5Live phone in on Thursday there was an eloquent former Middleborough steelworker. I was quite sympathetic, but if he thinks that the mills and mines will reopen with high paying working class manufacturing jobs post Brexit, he is going to be sadly disappointed.

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

Yes, starting at the 2008 financial crisis and 2009 recession, not the 2004 migration. Austerity, not migration, though the latter is always a populist battlecry.

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

Anazina said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Another day when pb’s Leavers luxuriate in lambasting Labour anti-Semitism rather than do anything about, or even acknowledge, the cesspit of xenophobia they swam in so happily.

Indeed. And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.

Rod is an interesting and instructive case. He is an undoubtedly intelligent chap, with an interesting view on many topics, and IMV a good tipster. In those ways he was a boon to the site.

Except occasionally he expressed views which are, to many (including myself) very unpalatable. For most of the time those views remained hidden, and I reckon this is the case for many such views: they are held more widely than most of us suspect, amongst the thick and the intelligent, the poor or the rich.

Yes, tha's an interesting issue. We all have a few touchstone issues which makes us unwilling to mix (even online) with people who espouse them. On the whole I'll talk to anyone (online or in person) so long as they don't force especially horrible views on me - I'm not sure we achieve much by isolating them.

Quite so Nick .... you've always been very welcome on PB as "The Broxtowe One" ....

DM_Andy said:

Trying to go back to the main topic I was thinking of what might change Labour members' view on the antisemitism issue, I feel like if Ed Miliband were to criticise Jeremy Corbyn, then that could harm Corbyn's standing as Labour leader. At the moment, the only MPs that are attacking the leadership's handing of antisemitism are the usual suspects (Woodcock, Berger, Mann, Streeting) and anything they say has long since been tuned out by the Corbyn-supporting majority. It would need someone with some credibility with the membership to change things.

Ed Balls would get a listening too. Even a grandee like Roy Hattersley would deserve some respect as a former Deputy Leader if he were to issue a statement. His second wife is Jewish.

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

DM_Andy said:

Trying to go back to the main topic I was thinking of what might change Labour members' view on the antisemitism issue, I feel like if Ed Miliband were to criticise Jeremy Corbyn, then that could harm Corbyn's standing as Labour leader. At the moment, the only MPs that are attacking the leadership's handing of antisemitism are the usual suspects (Woodcock, Berger, Mann, Streeting) and anything they say has long since been tuned out by the Corbyn-supporting majority. It would need someone with some credibility with the membership to change things.

Ed Balls would get a listening too. Even a grandee like Roy Hattersley would deserve some respect as a former Deputy Leader if he were to issue a statement. His second wife is Jewish.

If they didn't listen to Neil Kinnock, what chance is there they will listen to these others?

Most of the membership are not in the mood for listening, whoever is talking to them. But the Party's senior figures need to say they did all they could to make a difference.

FF43 said:

The big winner from Brexit is fireplaces. They are going to be a lot more prominent from now on.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/979852567701278726

The rise of former fireplace salesman Gavin Williamson now makes more sense.....

Off-topic:

I don't know if this has been covered:

"FBI questions Ted Malloch, Trump campaign figure and Farage ally"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/30/fbi-questions-ted-malloch-trump-campaign-figure-and-farage-ally

Rebourne_Fluffy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Roger said:

14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

I think you have to wait for a judgment by the PB Committee on Antisemitic Corbynite Activity as to whether even referring to the killings in Gaza is in fact antisemitic. You should be ok as long as you only repeat verbatim IDF statements and anything Mark Regev says on the subject.

ThUD, ThUD,
Still table-slamming his head.
ThUD, ThUD,
The slurs he's said.

Is the Jock outta his head?
I think so.
Is the Jock now brain-dead?
I think so!


Apologies to 'The Presidents of the United States of America'.

Oh dear , medication missed again

Australia lose another wicket. Now 68-3.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch...

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in the mid noughties as HYFUD claims, indeed Pro EU views were in a plurality. It is noticeable that Euroscepticism was in front in the very early Eighties, and is associated with hard economic times much more than migration figures.

Anti-migrant feeling also doesn't relate to numbers coming or going, with high antimigration feeling in the early eighties despite flat or even negative net migration.

When people are skint, they are likely to blame others, and foreigners are a popular choice. On the 5Live phone in on Thursday there was an eloquent former Middleborough steelworker. I was quite sympathetic, but if he thinks that the mills and mines will reopen with high paying working class manufacturing jobs post Brexit, he is going to be sadly disappointed.

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

Yes, starting at the 2008 financial crisis and 2009 recession, not the 2004 migration. Austerity, not migration, though the latter is always a populist battlecry.

I don't think that holds.

On that polling Remain had a bigger lead in 2008 at the time of the crash than 2004 when the new immigrants from Eastern Europe was in the news.

By 2011 Leave had reached 50%+ at a time when most of the EU had imposed transition controls on free movement from Eastern Europe throughout the previous 7 years unlike the UK

Well that just demonstrates my point. Remain was increasing through the noughties, until the GFC hit.

notme said:

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

So you shoot people attacking a fence?

Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.

Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.

You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.

Or do facts not matter any more?

I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.

Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in the mid noughties as HYFUD claims, indeed Pro EU views were in a plurality. It is noticeable that Euroscepticism was in front in the very early Eighties, and is associated with hard economic times much more than migration figures.

Anti-migrant feeling also doesn't relate to numbers coming or going, with high antimigration feeling in the early eighties despite flat or even negative net migration.

When people are skint, they are likely to blame others, and foreigners are a popular choice. On the 5Live phone in on Thursday there was an eloquent former Middleborough steelworker. I was quite sympathetic, but if he thinks that the mills and mines will reopen with high paying working class manufacturing jobs post Brexit, he is going to be sadly disappointed.

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

Yes, starting at the 2008 financial crisis and 2009 recession, not the 2004 migration. Austerity, not migration, though the latter is always a populist battlecry.

I don't think that holds.

On that polling Remain had a bigger lead in 2008 at the time of the crash than 2004 when the new immigrants from Eastern Europe was in the news.

By 2011 Leave had reached 50%+ at a time when most of the EU had imposed transition controls on free movement from Eastern Europe throughout the previous 7 years unlike the UK

Well that just demonstrates my point. Remain was increasing through the noughties, until the GFC hit.

Not true as Leave was significantly higher in both 2004 and 2008 than it had been in 2001 after the accession of the Eastern European nations and free movement without transition controls. By 2008 the GFC was well under way

malcolmg said:

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

So you shoot people attacking a fence?

Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.

Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.

You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.

Or do facts not matter any more?

Well given that Israel has colonised most of what was Palestine's land. I have yet to ever see an article on jewish settlers being ousted from their land , or Palestiaians building huge walls or fences to pen Israelis so perhaps I have missed something. Your facts seem counter to anything I have ever seen or read , albeit I don't claim to be an expert like some.

Is this a fact for instancehttps://twitter.com/hashtag/Shoutout2MSNBC?src=hash

Here is a recent article on settler evictions:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/israel-west-bank-settlement-homes

I like Israel as a country, but the behaviour of the Israelis in the Occupied Territories has varied from cruel to outrageous. That is not to make excuses for the Palestinians, who have often been as creul and outrageous when given the chance.

Interesting article by David Goodhart:

"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy
Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/arts-and-books/david-goodhart-liberals-are-set-on-a-collision-course-with-democracy

Good afternoon, everyone.

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

So you shoot people attacking a fence?

Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.

Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.

You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.

Or do facts not matter any more?

Well given that Israel has colonised most of what was Palestine's land. I have yet to ever see an article on jewish settlers being ousted from their land , or Palestiaians building huge walls or fences to pen Israelis so perhaps I have missed something. Your facts seem counter to anything I have ever seen or read , albeit I don't claim to be an expert like some.

Is this a fact for instancehttps://twitter.com/hashtag/Shoutout2MSNBC?src=hash

Here is a recent article on settler evictions:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/israel-west-bank-settlement-homes

I like Israel as a country, but the behaviour of the Israelis in the Occupied Territories has varied from cruel to outrageous. That is not to make excuses for the Palestinians, who have often been as creul and outrageous when given the chance.

There was a good comment up thread that too many on both sides prefer to win than see peace. Until that changes they’ll be antagonising each other.

We all though there’d never be peace in Northern Ireland though, and yet amazingly, two decades - half my lifetime - ago this weekend, it all came together in the Good Friday Agreement. Peace can happpen, if enough people want there to be peace.

MarkHopkins said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in the mid noughties as HYFUD claims, indeed Pro EU views were in a plurality. It is noticeable that Euroscepticism was in front in the very early Eighties, and is associated with hard economic times much more than migration

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

Yes, starting at the 2008 financial crisis and 2009 recession, not the 2004 migration. Austerity, not migration, though the latter is always a populist battlecry.

I don't think that holds.

On that polling Remain had a bigger lead in 2008 at the time of the crash than 2004 when the new immigrants from Eastern Europe was in the news.

By 2011 Leave had reached 50%+ at a time when most of the EU had imposed transition controls on free movement from Eastern Europe throughout the previous 7 years unlike the UK

Well that just demonstrates my point. Remain was increasing through the noughties, until the GFC hit.

I think you are trying to interpret too much from the polls.

Effects take a while to seep through, and can be masked for a while by other factors, e.g. apparent economic success.

I think that it is simplistic to link the East European immigration of 2004 to any spike in anti-EU feeling. Certainly there is little to see in the polling data to support the contention.

While obviously there is division everywhere, with Remainers in Middlesbrough and Leavers in Cambridge, the people hardest hit by austerity were the WWC in former industrial areas like the NE and South Wales. The £350 million per week played well in Leicester WWC areas too.

Immigration cannot explain the depth of anti EU feeling in places like Copeland or the Welsh Valleys that have had little of it, and indeed have shrinking populations. I think that money rather than migration was the driver, whether money going to the EU, or to what was seen as the parts of Britain benefiting from the EU.

This is why a Brexit that fails to deliver in these distressed areas will get a backlash. Ppotentially, this is Jezzas route to number 10.I think May realises this, but will struggle to deliver it. A Corbynite Brexit is much more likely to.

MarkHopkins said:

Sandpit said:

There was a good comment up thread that too many on both sides prefer to win than see peace. Until that changes they’ll be antagonising each other.

We all though there’d never be peace in Northern Ireland though, and yet amazingly, two decades - half my lifetime - ago this weekend, it all came together in the Good Friday Agreement. Peace can happpen, if enough people want there to be peace.

"There was a good comment up thread that too many on both sides prefer to win than see peace."

Just like Brexit...

Israel and Palestine, for when Brexit just isn’t divisive enough

notme said:

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.

The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.

Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;

https://www.timesofisrael.com/6-gazans-said-wounded-as-thousands-flock-to-border-to-protest/

So you shoot people attacking a fence?

Gun men you know might just be a threat to life.

Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.

Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.

Y

Or do facts not matter any more?

. Your facts seem counter to anything I have ever seen or read , albeit I don't claim to be an expert like some.

Is this a fact for instancehttps://twitter.com/hashtag/Shoutout2MSNBC?src=hash

Here is a recent article on settler evictions:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/israel-west-bank-settlement-homes

I like Israel as a country, but the behaviour of the Israelis in the Occupied Territories has varied from cruel to outrageous. That is not to make excuses for the Palestinians, who have often been as creul and outrageous when given the chance.

There was a good comment up thread that too many on both sides prefer to win than see peace. Until that changes they’ll be antagonising each other.

We all though there’d never be peace in Northern Ireland though, and yet amazingly, two decades - half my lifetime - ago this weekend, it all came together in the Good Friday Agreement. Peace can happpen, if enough people want there to be peace.

An issue is that one side has the total destruction of the Israeli state as it core principle. It's hard to negotiate with that.

The other side completely destroyed Palestine... Until both sides can admit to fault on their own side and justification for the other there can be no compromise that will stand the test of time.

Foxy said:

MarkHopkins said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

@AllistairMeeks

I think the article here on 40 years of polling on membership covers that ground:

http://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

There was no upsurge of anti EU sentiment in

There was actually a swing from about 40% willing to vote to leave the EU in 2001 to about 50% willing to leave the EU by 2011 in that very polling you have linked to

Yes, starting at the 2008 financial crisis and 2009 recession, not the 2004 migration. Austerity, not migration, though the latter is always a populist battlecry.

I don't think that holds.

On that polling Remain had a bigger lead years unlike the UK

Well that just demonstrates my point. Remain was increasing through the noughties, until the GFC hit.

I think you are trying to interpret too much from the polls.

Effects take a while to seep through, and can be masked for a while by other factors, e.g. apparent economic success.

I think that it is simplistic to link the East European immigration of 2004 to any spike in anti-EU feeling. Certainly there is little to see in the polling data to support the contention.

While obviously there is division everywhere, with Remainers in Middlesbrough and Leavers in Cambridge, the people hardest hit by austerity were the WWC in former industrial areas like the NE and South Wales. The £350 million per week played well in Leicester WWC areas too.

Immigration cannot explain the depth of anti EU feeling in places like Copeland or the Welsh Valleys that have had little of it, and indeed have shrinking populations. I think that money rather than migration was the driver, whether money going to the EU, or to what was seen as the parts of Britain benefiting from the E

This is why a Brexit that fails to deliver in these distressed areas will get a backlash. Ppotentially, this is Jezzas route to number 10.I think May realises this, but will struggle to deliver it. A Corbynite Brexit is much more likely to.

It is extremely unlikely Leave would have got over 50% had immigration not been an issue and had proper transition controls been imposed on immigration from Eastern Europe in 2004. Indeed there may not have been an EU referendum in the first place as the UKIP vote would not have increased as much.

Corbyn may still have capitalised on an anti austerity and post GFC ticket but that is a separate issue

TheJezziah said:

One side is actually destroying the other state, as you say pretty hard to negotiate with that.

Which is why neither side actually wants peace. They want victory.

A professor at the Hebrew University once told me that most Israelis want three things - a state that is Jewish, democratic, and from the river (Jordan) to the sea. But as he further pointed out, they can only have two of those. A state from the river to the sea would almost certainly be majority Muslim, so if it was democratic it couldn't be Jewish and if it was Jewish it couldn't be democratic. Therefore, to be democratic and Jewish it couldn't stretch to the Jordan.

But that is not enough for a large number on both sides. Therefore the problem is ultimately insoluble. It could easily end in a gencoide by one side or the other. At the moment Israel has the advantage if that is the case, but it is one change of policy by the Americans away from being horrendously outnumbered and unsustainable economically.

I can also recommend Ahron Bregman's book 'Cursed Victory' on this subject. Bregman is a former Israeli soldier who refused to serve in the Israeli army over its behaviour in the West Bank. He now lives in London and lectures at either UCL or SOAS (I forget which). Well worth a read.

AndyJS said:

Interesting article by David Goodhart:

"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy
Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/arts-and-books/david-goodhart-liberals-are-set-on-a-collision-course-with-democracy

"Liberals in developed countries have been used to winning almost every argument for economic and cultural openness over the past 30 years. And they have not in the main been reacting calmly to the apparent end to this golden era."

You can say that again!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, at least we aren't discussing those unforgivable deviants who put milk in first.

There are good physics reasons for putting the milk in first.

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting article by David Goodhart:

"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy
Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/arts-and-books/david-goodhart-liberals-are-set-on-a-collision-course-with-democracy

Ach, the "somewhere vs anywheres" guy again. I disagree with his assumption that people are basically decent, and that their basic decency will prevent badness. Individual people are kind and good and decent, but crowds and tribes and populations are not.[1] How many bloody (both senses) years of history have we had that disprove that? I am sick to the back teeth of people who insist that we are in some special place in history and so evolved that war is an impossibility and evil is to be found only in history.

[1] OK I give up. Which Terry Pratchett passage am I remembering here? I can't remember.

I think it's a line from The Fifth Elephant (although I could be wrong) - 'a crowd has the IQ of its stupidest member divided by the number of people present.'

JackW said:

It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.

Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...