politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election
Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance.
Comments
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Cheers Alastair and primus inter pares again.0
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I suspect after Brexit, Hungary will be the EU's biggest headache.0
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Thank you. Interesting to have such a perspective about another country.0
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Any betting opportunities?
Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. B, that's true on Hiero. As for the others, they saved Rome, which, from a Roman perspective, is rather benevolent.0 -
Morning all,
Thanks for the interesting article. I agree after Brexit, Hungary is a major headache for EU. Although Italy may well turn into the biggest problem quite rapidly.0 -
Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/0 -
FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.0 -
Yes a few markets on Betfair, next to no liquidity though.Morris_Dancer said:Any betting opportunities?
Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. B, that's true on Hiero. As for the others, they saved Rome, which, from a Roman perspective, is rather benevolent.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1322108370 -
Mr. Eagles, cheers. I know that feeling. There are sometimes interesting F1 markets (top 3 qualifying could be a good one this year) that are mostly empty.0
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Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?rkrkrk said:Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/
You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia0 -
Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
XenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobiclies0
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But Sean is a writer, and it might be possible to make a case for having created an environment which contributed to his remarkable productivity last year. (Not least his much reduced posting here.)prh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
Best settled amicably, in any event.
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Yes. Tough problem for the EU to solve, but if Hungary feels so strongly about immigration they should leave.Charles said:
Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?rkrkrk said:Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/
You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia0 -
The election doesn't look a nail-biter.0
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Mr. Borough, starting? I'm surprised it hasn't worried you/Finkelstein before now.0
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Maybe but, even with that argument, I don't think the courts would agree to give her 50% of Sean's earnings. But, as you say, best settled amicably rather than wasting money on lawyers. My second wife got a lot more than she was entitled to from me for exactly that reason. Fighting it would have left her with less money but, after costs had been paid, I would probably have been little or no better off.Nigelb said:
But Sean is a writer, and it might be possible to make a case for having created an environment which contributed to his remarkable productivity last year. (Not least his much reduced posting here.)prh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
Best settled amicably, in any event.0 -
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
Good header, thanks Alastair. Always interesting to hear about foreign elections, even if this one doesn’t look particularly close.0
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There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
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Looks like a battle between right and far right in Hungary.
Now the UK is leaving Hungary is a prime contender to replace it as the leading member of the EU's awkward squad0 -
Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.0 -
You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.MarqueeMark said:
There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
Mr. HYUFD, depends how Italy's government ends up being composed. They may have a referendum on leaving the single currency, though I suspect they won't.0
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If SeanT is still reading....
You are a writer. So write. Write to your wife, telling her everthing that has been so wonderful about your time together, in the most painful detail. Be brutally honest, to her and to yourself. It will remind you of what you are losing. Hopefully, remind her of what you are both losing. She's still young. It's quite possible she will never find anyone who will be what you have been to her. Maybe there's still a way to pre-empt such regret.
I've only had two big, long-lasting relationships in my life. It's what I did when the first ended. It didn't stop it ending - but it did mean we have stayed very close over the many years since.
I remember you saying you never expected it to last any great time. But a friendship can still come through it all - and out the other end.0 -
To be fair to Seumas Milne, Victor Rothschild had got his father sacked as Director-General of the BBC, so there's history there.TGOHF said:0 -
Interesting header.
Just imagine being in a political union with a dodgy country like Hungary.0 -
I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.MarqueeMark said:
There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
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Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?MarqueeMark said:
I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.MarqueeMark said:
There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
Cake and eat it isn't just a UK phenomenon. The good operation of the EU depends on member states following the rules. The lack of respect for the rule of law in Hungary and Poland is a problem for the EU as well as the countries themselves.rkrkrk said:Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/0 -
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
On topic, the Mongol invasion of Hungary was horrific. About a quarter of the population was killed in a few months.0
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No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.0 -
Hungary is already outside the single currency anyway, though if the new Italian government takes a much firmer line on immigration and pushes for a referendum on leaving the single currency or even a dual currency it would certainly move closer to Hungary's position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, depends how Italy's government ends up being composed. They may have a referendum on leaving the single currency, though I suspect they won't.
A Salvini premiership would match Orban's rather more than Di Maio's would I imagine0 -
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.0 -
"Reclusive, nervous and by his own account gripped by feelings of worthlessness" - that Thomas Mair, yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?MarqueeMark said:
I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.MarqueeMark said:
There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
A level of self-doubt rarely expressed by the keyboard warriors of Momentum.0 -
There it is in a nutshell. They will defend anything as long as the source is one of their own cultists and is taking the fight to the Tories etc etc.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.malcolmg said:
No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.0 -
We have had lots of practice over last 300 years , it is not niceSandyRentool said:Interesting header.
Just imagine being in a political union with a dodgy country like Hungary.0 -
Or - it's a damning indictment of the 40%.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.0 -
Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.Sean_F said:
Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.malcolmg said:
No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.0 -
Mr. 43, hahaha. The EU didn't follow its own rules at all with the single currency.
Sorry to hear of Mr. T's impending divorce.0 -
Thomas Mair looks unlikely to form a government any time soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?MarqueeMark said:
I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.MarqueeMark said:
There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.0 -
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc0 -
Has already lost his marbles GIN, going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.0 -
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.0 -
As SeanT said he has done his duty and had children, he had the money she had the looks, both parties knew what they were getting into and had fun while it lasted it seemsmalcolmg said:
Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.Sean_F said:
Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.malcolmg said:
No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.-1 -
I'd be interested in Corbyn's take on the role of Seumas Milne....TGOHF said:
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Or possibly those 30 individuals know the person in question better than those of us who don't?rottenborough said:
There it is in a nutshell. They will defend anything as long as the source is one of their own cultists and is taking the fight to the Tories etc etc.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election and post Brexit the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election0 -
Thank you @AlastairMeeks for the article.
The only insight I can add on Hungarian politics is based on a chat with an Uber driver. He was not a fan of Orbán or Jobbik, but was concerned that Hungary’s gypsy population tend to have far larger families than regular Hungarians.0 -
Is anyone arguing that the electorate is spoiled for choice at the moment ... ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
0 -
Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?HYUFD said:
Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election0 -
Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.
I didn't realise.0 -
IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.MarqueeMark said:
Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?HYUFD said:
Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election0 -
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.0 -
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
0 -
Perhaps Milne realised his comment was questionable.MarqueeMark said:0 -
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.0 -
It's the policy offer which is popular.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
That's the difference with Brown and Miliband.0 -
IDS is harking backwards - not what the voters want to see. He's had more than a fair crack for someone of middling abilities.HYUFD said:
IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.MarqueeMark said:
Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?HYUFD said:
Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
People like Mercer and Mordaunt need to be blooded at senior levels, if they are going to be the new generation of potential leadership challangers.0 -
There certainly are. Austerity, Brexit, anti-capitalism motivate many people against them. Brexit, and intense dislike for the far left, motivate many people in favour of them.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.0 -
I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.0
-
They could have had the same fun without a bit of paperHYUFD said:
As SeanT said he has done his duty and had children, he had the money she had the looks, both parties knew what they were getting into and had fun while it lasted it seemsmalcolmg said:
Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.Sean_F said:
Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.malcolmg said:
No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.0 -
Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.0 -
Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)0 -
David Baddiel’s Twitter feed over the past few days has been quite astonishing, especially his polite (and not so polite) replies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trying to argue on Twitter with someone who writes comedy for a living doesn’t usually end well, they all get made to look like the drunken idiot at the comedy club shouting at the stage.0 -
She blew a little bit of her lead (perhaps 3-4%) but mostly it was the centre-left/Left fully consolidating around Corbyn, partly, amongst AB centre-left voters, to try and frustrate Brexit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.
That's interesting, because how the votes divvy up next time amongst the major parties could have a big impact on seats.0 -
Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.0 -
This is why it would be so stupid for the Tories to put people like Hunt and Osborne into visible prominence. They are the faces of austerity. Post-Brexit they need someone not seen as a social reactionary and not seen as a Thatcherite cutter.Sean_F said:
There certainly are. Austerity, Brexit, anti-capitalism motivate many people against them. Brexit, and intense dislike for the far left, motivate many people in favour of them.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.0 -
Morning GIN, the alternatives are just cheeks of the same arse.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.0 -
The rhetoric of the Government is now moving to taking a "balanced approach" to public spending, which both May and Hammond have started using in recent weeks.Sean_F said:
Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.0 -
The Left and anti Tory vote was more divided in 2015 but Corbyn squeezed the UKIP, SNP, Green and LD votes in 2017.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.
Corbyn was also more charismatic and a better campaigner than Ed Miliband was.0 -
Mind-boggling list of 50 instances of anti-Semitism by Labour/Momentum/Corbyn0
-
Except the UK voted for Brexit and Germany has the anti immigration AfD polling as the main opposition to the CDU and SPD Grand CoalitionElliot said:I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.
0 -
It was necessary but Tories made sure their chums at top were excluded, it is the plebs that are taking the hit. If all were involved people may have accepted a bit better.Sean_F said:
Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.0 -
There are people like that. People who regard the Tories as "lower than vermin."MarqueeMark said:
Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
But, there are more people who simply feel they've been treated unfairly over the past eight years.0 -
You are far from alone in thatrottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/9794478286562918400 -
IDS was effective under Hague as Shadow Defence Secretary.MarqueeMark said:
IDS is harking backwards - not what the voters want to see. He's had more than a fair crack for someone of middling abilities.HYUFD said:
IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.MarqueeMark said:
Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?HYUFD said:
Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that postGIN1138 said:
Where you lose?Mortimer said:Thanks for the insight Alastair.
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
People like Mercer and Mordaunt need to be blooded at senior levels, if they are going to be the new generation of potential leadership challangers.
Mercer needs a junior ministerial post first before he can even be considered for the Cabinet.
Mourdaunt needs time to show what she can do at Overseas Aid before being considered for promotion further0 -
The Budget this Autumn will be very interesting.Sean_F said:
There are people like that. People who regard the Tories as "lower than vermin."MarqueeMark said:
Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
But, there are more people who simply feel they've been treated unfairly over the past eight years.0 -
Sorry - is that a comment on Hungary or leavers?Casino_Royale said:XenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobiclies
0 -
See quite a lot of that sort of thing in Thailand.Sean_F said:
Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.malcolmg said:
No fool like an old foolprh47bridge said:FPT
It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.Nigelb said:
But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
Happy Easter, Ēostre, Spring Festival or whatever all. I’m now off to play the role of kindly, wise old Grandfather at the family’s Easter do.
Sadly the Thailand contingent will not be there. It’s not their New Holiday until 15th.0 -
As say, implementation of EU rules is largely the responsibility of member states, therefore member states break the rules from time to time. Most of the time they don't however.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, hahaha. The EU didn't follow its own rules at all with the single currency.
Sorry to hear of Mr. T's impending divorce.0 -
And all that trouble getting the coffin lid down ....Sean_F said:Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.0 -
Potentially much, much worseTheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
Mr McDonnell signed a wonderful document once, which he then claimed he hadn't read... sound familiar?0 -
Hungary signed up for freedom of movement of EU citizens - not for the rest of the world or to solve the consequences of Germany's immigration choices. And if that is the choice the Hungarian people vote for shouldn't democratically that choice be respected?rkrkrk said:
Yes. Tough problem for the EU to solve, but if Hungary feels so strongly about immigration they should leave.Charles said:
Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?rkrkrk said:Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/
You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia
0 -
Thanks, Mr Meeks for an absorbing header.
Hungary and Hungarians have always appeared exceptional, defined by an almost unique and detached language wedged between teutonic and slavic blocs. They must themselves feel this otherness about themselves, and perhaps it underlies their euroskepticism now just as it did their attitude to the Soviets when under their yoke.0 -
Please tell me that's a spoof?TGOHF said:0 -
Neither the UK's Brexit government, nor - as far as I can tell - the AfD, are anywhere near as autocratic as these right wing governments in the ex communist block.HYUFD said:
Except the UK voted for Brexit and Germany has the anti immigration AfD polling as the main opposition to the CDU and SPD Grand CoalitionElliot said:I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.
0 -
What's happened to Mr T?Casino_Royale said:Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.
I didn't realise.0 -
The problem on the housing issue is that announcements of good policy won't actually swing many votes. In fact, given NIMBYism it may cost them. What will reduce support for Corbynism is the practical effects of enough housing being built to bring affordability ratios down - and a few years of them to boot.HYUFD said:
Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
May needs to get cracking.0 -
Austerity was a choice.TheScreamingEagles said:
You make austerity sound like a choice.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:
Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.Sean_F said:
Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?rottenborough said:Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.
The government chose not to apply it to pensioners.
It could have chosen instead not to triple student tuition fees and not to triple lock pensions.0 -
Wasn't that about the average for a Mongol invasion ?Sean_F said:On topic, the Mongol invasion of Hungary was horrific. About a quarter of the population was killed in a few months.
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It's possible to take the harshest edge off austerity because debt is now falling as a share of GDP, a luxury Osborne never had. What I find remarkable is that it has been so relatively painless to reduce the deficit by over £100bn, more than 1/8th of all government expenditure.HYUFD said:
Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.Tony said:
For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.HYUFD said:TheScreamingEagles said:
.Sean_F said:TheScreamingEagles said:rottenborough said:
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
Some budgets have undoubtedly got tighter, the head count in the public sector has fallen fairly significantly (thankfully absorbed and then some by the private sector); some high demand services such as health are really hurting now, a significant pain for tomorrow has been built up in student debt but wow. To achieve this whilst taking millions out of tax altogether and only modestly increasing the taxes on the better off is a remarkable achievement which suggests massive quantities of money was being wasted before the crash.0 -
The relationship where he came on to a board of politics geeks and boasted he was having sex with a girl less than half his age? Turned out not to be a lasting one.GIN1138 said:
What's happened to Mr T?Casino_Royale said:Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.
I didn't realise.0 -
EU membership brings financial transfers to poorer countries and an opportunity for their people to emigrate.rkrkrk said:Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/0
