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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election
Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance.
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Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. B, that's true on Hiero. As for the others, they saved Rome, which, from a Roman perspective, is rather benevolent.
Thanks for the interesting article. I agree after Brexit, Hungary is a major headache for EU. Although Italy may well turn into the biggest problem quite rapidly.
EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/
Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.
This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132210837
You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/979447828656291840
Best settled amicably, in any event.
Now the UK is leaving Hungary is a prime contender to replace it as the leading member of the EU's awkward squad
O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:
- For May, Her confidence seems returned
- For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
- For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
- For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure
As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
You are a writer. So write. Write to your wife, telling her everthing that has been so wonderful about your time together, in the most painful detail. Be brutally honest, to her and to yourself. It will remind you of what you are losing. Hopefully, remind her of what you are both losing. She's still young. It's quite possible she will never find anyone who will be what you have been to her. Maybe there's still a way to pre-empt such regret.
I've only had two big, long-lasting relationships in my life. It's what I did when the first ended. It didn't stop it ending - but it did mean we have stayed very close over the many years since.
I remember you saying you never expected it to last any great time. But a friendship can still come through it all - and out the other end.
Just imagine being in a political union with a dodgy country like Hungary.
A Salvini premiership would match Orban's rather more than Di Maio's would I imagine
That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
A level of self-doubt rarely expressed by the keyboard warriors of Momentum.
An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.
Sorry to hear of Mr. T's impending divorce.
Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.
The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).
It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
The only insight I can add on Hungarian politics is based on a chat with an Uber driver. He was not a fan of Orbán or Jobbik, but was concerned that Hungary’s gypsy population tend to have far larger families than regular Hungarians.
I didn't realise.
A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.
The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?
Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?
Face it Mrs May blew it.
That's the difference with Brown and Miliband.
People like Mercer and Mordaunt need to be blooded at senior levels, if they are going to be the new generation of potential leadership challangers.
They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
Trying to argue on Twitter with someone who writes comedy for a living doesn’t usually end well, they all get made to look like the drunken idiot at the comedy club shouting at the stage.
That's interesting, because how the votes divvy up next time amongst the major parties could have a big impact on seats.
Corbyn was also more charismatic and a better campaigner than Ed Miliband was.
But, there are more people who simply feel they've been treated unfairly over the past eight years.
Mercer needs a junior ministerial post first before he can even be considered for the Cabinet.
Mourdaunt needs time to show what she can do at Overseas Aid before being considered for promotion further
Happy Easter, Ēostre, Spring Festival or whatever all. I’m now off to play the role of kindly, wise old Grandfather at the family’s Easter do.
Sadly the Thailand contingent will not be there. It’s not their New Holiday until 15th.
Mr McDonnell signed a wonderful document once, which he then claimed he hadn't read... sound familiar?
Hungary and Hungarians have always appeared exceptional, defined by an almost unique and detached language wedged between teutonic and slavic blocs. They must themselves feel this otherness about themselves, and perhaps it underlies their euroskepticism now just as it did their attitude to the Soviets when under their yoke.
May needs to get cracking.
The government chose not to apply it to pensioners.
It could have chosen instead not to triple student tuition fees and not to triple lock pensions.
Some budgets have undoubtedly got tighter, the head count in the public sector has fallen fairly significantly (thankfully absorbed and then some by the private sector); some high demand services such as health are really hurting now, a significant pain for tomorrow has been built up in student debt but wow. To achieve this whilst taking millions out of tax altogether and only modestly increasing the taxes on the better off is a remarkable achievement which suggests massive quantities of money was being wasted before the crash.