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SystemSystem Posts: 12,848
edited March 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    first ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    Nigelb said:

    first ?

    And second just to check...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    Stick to your guns Survation.

    I’d love to see an updated YouGov constituency model poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    To think this time last year Mrs May high teen double digit leads.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Some methodological support surely comes from Prof Curtice a couple of threads back. Though as Jim Callaghan reminded us, all good people are in bed by ten o'clock. Night night.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,697
    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    To think this time last year Mrs May high teen double digit leads.

    Yes but you can't rely upon teens to turnout. ;)
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,446
    Not sure why my last comment disappeared. Did I say something wrong?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stick to your guns Survation...

    Well, yes. But I don't think they are any more likely to be correct this time around than the opposing consensus of pollsters. Just accept there is a large margin of error, and hope for a prescient call from David Herdson again.... ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Not sure why my last comment disappeared. Did I say something wrong?

    Is the Vanilla new thread gremlin.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1876987/#Comment_1876987
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,710
    As far as I'm aware there hasn't been a Leave/Remain poll since Salisbury?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.

    The ironic thing is in 2017 their weighted numbers were largely accurate, it all went wrong for them when they applied their turnout/likely to vote filters.

    Had they used their 2015 methodologies they would have mostly got the 2017 general election spot on.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We need Survation to poll London just before the local elections and then compare the figures to the actual votes in the capital on May 3rd.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    williamglenn said:

    As far as I'm aware there hasn't been a Leave/Remain poll since Salisbury?

    I did a YouGov poll yesterday that covered that.

    I'm hopeful we'll see it overnight/tomorrow in The Times.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,710
    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/976936930238713857
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.

    The ironic thing is in 2017 their weighted numbers were largely accurate, it all went wrong for them when they applied their turnout/likely to vote filters.

    Had they used their 2015 methodologies they would have mostly got the 2017 general election spot on.
    Surely it's all margin of error stuff when it's so close?.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    williamglenn said:

    twitter.com/eucopresident/status/976936930238713857

    I fear some people will fixate on the use of the phrase "highly likely".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Not sure why my last comment disappeared. Did I say something wrong?

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    We haven't had much locals polling have we?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    We haven't had much locals polling have we?

    Just London polling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/976936930238713857

    So do everyone other than Corbyn and co
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    edited March 2018
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    Apparently today the rozzers arrested a woman for playing a toy trumpet during the protest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,893
    Wasn't the Survation poll undertaken after a bunch of "on a scale of 1 to 10, how much of a bunch of bastards are the Tories?" type questions though?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    edited March 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wasn't the Survation poll undertaken after a bunch of "on a scale of 1 to 10, how much of a bunch of bastards are the Tories?" type questions though?

    No.

    The VI question was the second question asked after likelihood to vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,893
    edited March 2018
    Sad news that the founder of Toys R Us has died a week after his company folded.

    Although, as his name was Charles Lazarus, I suppose we have to ask "Or has he?"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    They should have just created a couple of Facebook apps....Eg Like a personality test for wannabe jahadis to tell them if they have what it takes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,448
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    It is utter vandalism, very very sad. I'm hopeful people will vote for the best placed Labour challengers in their ward come May
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,893
    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Olives are only slightly behind pineapple for the worst topping on pizza.

    J'adore anchovies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Wasn't the Survation poll undertaken after a bunch of "on a scale of 1 to 10, how much of a bunch of bastards are the Tories?" type questions though?

    No.

    The VI question was the second question asked after likelihood to vote.
    Ah OK, had heard otherwise.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Olives are only slightly behind pineapple for the worst topping on pizza.

    J'adore anchovies.
    Black olives are the Devil's dangleberries.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976945755150745600
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sad news that the founder of Toys R Us has died a week after his company folded.

    Although, as his name was Charles Lazarus, I suppose we have to ask "Or has he?"

    There is a Dr Lazarus practicing as a GP in Leicester, surely an auspicious name? certainly better than the Surgeon that I worked for - Mr Pain.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,305
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    It is utter vandalism, very very sad. I'm hopeful people will vote for the best placed Labour challengers in their ward come May
    I think you mean the best placed challengers to Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976945755150745600

    Re the story in the right, there has been research that shows contrary to perceived wisdom you really don't want cuddle grey haired old doctor. Outcomes are far better with somebody a few years out of training.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,474
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Olives are only slightly behind pineapple for the worst topping on pizza.

    J'adore anchovies.
    Black olives are the Devil's dangleberries.....
    Black olives aren’t as bad as meatballs that diagram is wrong in any number of ways.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,088
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.
    Like an eejit child I missed the BPC lecture on the changes (http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/polls-2017-election-bpc-conference/ ) and they haven't released the slides yet. So if you have sources for that blanket statement I will light a candle for you.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,448
    edited March 2018
    slade said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    It is utter vandalism, very very sad. I'm hopeful people will vote for the best placed Labour challengers in their ward come May
    I think you mean the best placed challengers to Labour.
    Hah yes of course.
    In the centre that's the greens, west side Lib Dems and far north maybe the Tories, from memory !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2018
    AndyJS said:

    We need Survation to poll London just before the local elections and then compare the figures to the actual votes in the capital on May 3rd.

    Problem of course in local elections is the woeful turnout. I doubt many people appreciate that 300,000 more Londoners voted leave than voted for Sadiq Khan in summer 2016 - far less interest in local elections.

    People might turn out to get the Tories out of Westminster but might be quite happy with the way they run the City of Westminster or not feel strongly enough to bother.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,088
    Floater said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/976936930238713857

    So do everyone other than Corbyn and co
    I am tempted to say "OK, go on then: name everybody and for each one give a link". But I suspect that would be cruel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Yes "just anchovies" implies a pizza dripping in anchovies and nowt else.

    That doesn't sound very nice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.
    Like an eejit child I missed the BPC lecture on the changes (http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/polls-2017-election-bpc-conference/ ) and they haven't released the slides yet. So if you have sources for that blanket statement I will light a candle for you.

    I'll try and do a thread on it next weekend, not this weekend.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976948780615524357
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Not sure why my last comment disappeared. Did I say something wrong?

    TSE fixed it for me.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,510
    McMaster has been fired. Replaced by Bolton
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Yes "just anchovies" implies a pizza dripping in anchovies and nowt else.

    That doesn't sound very nice.
    A pizza Napoleanata is usually anchovy, capers, tomatoes and mozarella, but black olives with stones are sometimes included. It is one of my favourites.

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    There is a rumour of more outputs from the Mueller investigation being publicly announced tomorrow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    Pulpstar said:

    slade said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    It is utter vandalism, very very sad. I'm hopeful people will vote for the best placed Labour challengers in their ward come May
    I think you mean the best placed challengers to Labour.
    Hah yes of course.
    In the centre that's the greens, west side Lib Dems and far north maybe the Tories, from memory !
    What about voters in South West Sheffield?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited March 2018
    tlg86 said:

    McMaster has been fired. Replaced by Bolton

    Another grown-up has left the building.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    tlg86 said:

    McMaster has been fired. Replaced by Bolton

    So we're going to find out if that pact between McMaster, Kelly, and Mattis really does exist.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/976948048453668870

    The White House looks to have got instability sorted internally. Time to go global.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    If this is true, is it really something that should be published?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    tlg86 said:

    McMaster has been fired. Replaced by Bolton

    Sigh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,710
    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    Soullless hates of western culture ...?
    Possible, I guess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    A venn diagram of those with terrorist tendencies and those that like Radiohead: O
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Yes "just anchovies" implies a pizza dripping in anchovies and nowt else.

    That doesn't sound very nice.
    Not necessarily. Bit like gentleman's relish on toast.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited March 2018
    The question will be asked do all terrorist like Radiohead, or does listening to Radiohead make you feel so depressed about your life and the world that you become open to indoctrination into the ISIS cult.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,448
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    slade said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tree-gate still rumbling on...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/976825661930266624?s=21

    It is utter vandalism, very very sad. I'm hopeful people will vote for the best placed Labour challengers in their ward come May
    I think you mean the best placed challengers to Labour.
    Hah yes of course.
    In the centre that's the greens, west side Lib Dems and far north maybe the Tories, from memory !
    What about voters in South West Sheffield?
    Diamonds in Dore ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    A venn diagram of those with terrorist tendencies and those that like Radiohead: O
    Is that two concentric circles of identical size ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    williamglenn said:

    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    A venn diagram of those with terrorist tendencies and those that like Radiohead: O
    Is that two concentric circles of identical size ?

    Yes, and completely overlapping of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    A venn diagram of those with terrorist tendencies and those that like Radiohead: O
    Is that two concentric circles of identical size ?

    Yes, and completely overlapping of course.
    Necessarily implied by my description, surely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,710
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.

    I'm a bit doubtful about the "MPs and workers" line. I suppose workers sounds better than pensioners.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    edited March 2018
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/976953664865697794
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited March 2018
    Tree-gate report...Council and plod seem like they have gone completely bonkers.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-43488373/anger-over-sheffield-s-plan-to-fell-healthy-trees
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/976942117393260545

    It'll be interesting to see which terrorists follow Radiohead on Facebook.
    A venn diagram of those with terrorist tendencies and those that like Radiohead: O
    Is that two concentric circles of identical size ?

    Yes, and completely overlapping of course.
    Necessarily implied by my description, surely.
    Sorry, not at my best. See previous post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Crikey.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,448
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.
    So did I. What a ridiculous headline
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,710
    John Bolton published his job application last month: "The Legal Case for Striking North Korea First"

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-legal-case-for-striking-north-korea-first-1519862374
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,448
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey. Glad you're ok
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,430
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Olives are only slightly behind pineapple for the worst topping on pizza.

    J'adore anchovies.
    Black olives are the Devil's dangleberries.....
    No pizza is truly complete without both anchovies and olives imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    Bolton Trump's new Nat Sec advisor.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    edited March 2018
    Benpointer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    Foxy said:

    Criticise Radiohead? express a liking for pineapple pizza? the possibilities are endless...

    It's hard to count the number of ways in which this is wrong...

    https://www.instagram.com/p/Bgj9ESrB633/?taken-by=mattsurelee
    How can "just anchovies" not be the worst possible pizza topping? (Although I hate olives, so that would get my vote....)
    Olives are only slightly behind pineapple for the worst topping on pizza.

    J'adore anchovies.
    Black olives are the Devil's dangleberries.....
    No pizza is truly complete without both anchovies and olives imo.
    While I am a fan of both, they do spoil that king of pizzas, the Hawaiian. :)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.
    So did I. What a ridiculous headline
    From the outside it looks like De La Rue bid high in the belief that the Government would feel obliged to keep the contract here, and have now leaked the likely outcome to try to salvage the situation. Good on the Government for calling their bluff.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,088
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.
    Like an eejit child I missed the BPC lecture on the changes (http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/polls-2017-election-bpc-conference/ ) and they haven't released the slides yet. So if you have sources for that blanket statement I will light a candle for you.

    I'll try and do a thread on it next weekend, not this weekend.
    1) That would be good, thank you
    2) Could you send me the links please? If you don't want to post them here, perfectly happy to do it by email
    3) Ah! Somebody who gets the "this/next" situation[1]

    [1] http://www.englishlessonsbrighton.co.uk/this-next-day-week/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Alarming stuff - hope you're OK ?
    Their confidence is as much training as casual bravery,though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    williamglenn said:

    John Bolton published his job application last month: "The Legal Case for Striking North Korea First"

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-legal-case-for-striking-north-korea-first-1519862374

    Well, that will help me get off to sleep!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,088
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    Jaysus dude, bad luck or what! Major symps. Glad to know no-one hurt.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.
    So did I. What a ridiculous headline
    From the outside it looks like De La Rue bid high in the belief that the Government would feel obliged to keep the contract here, and have now leaked the likely outcome to try to salvage the situation. Good on the Government for calling their bluff.
    Agreed 100%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/976953664865697794

    That doesn't actually mean they are pals. That means they've met twice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Alarming stuff - hope you're OK ?
    Their confidence is as much training as casual bravery,though.
    Yes I am fine but everything reeks of smoke. I take the point of training but they impressed the hell out of me today. They did seem relieved it was a diesel rather than petrol but the heat was intense with almost all of the aluminium at the front and on the bonnet burnt away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,430
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
    ( ...but don't try this one at home.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
    Well yes, I suppose you could. Whether it is a wise thing to do is another matter, especially when it is hot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    brendan16 said:

    AndyJS said:

    We need Survation to poll London just before the local elections and then compare the figures to the actual votes in the capital on May 3rd.

    Problem of course in local elections is the woeful turnout. I doubt many people appreciate that 300,000 more Londoners voted leave than voted for Sadiq Khan in summer 2016 - far less interest in local elections.

    People might turn out to get the Tories out of Westminster but might be quite happy with the way they run the City of Westminster or not feel strongly enough to bother.
    Good points.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,675
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
    Well yes, I suppose you could. Whether it is a wise thing to do is another matter, especially when it is hot.
    I'm sorry about your car. It sounds like a scary and unpleasant thing. I'm glad you are unhurt and posting on PB.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,435
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
    I would think that a rather hazardous experiment, as the vapour pressure of petrol would replenish it too quickly for the test.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,281
    edited March 2018
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    How many pollsters have changed their methodolgy since the general election ?

    All of them have.
    Like an eejit child I missed the BPC lecture on the changes (http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/polls-2017-election-bpc-conference/ ) and they haven't released the slides yet. So if you have sources for that blanket statement I will light a candle for you.

    I'll try and do a thread on it next weekend, not this weekend.
    1) That would be good, thank you
    2) Could you send me the links please? If you don't want to post them here, perfectly happy to do it by email
    3) Ah! Somebody who gets the "this/next" situation[1]

    [1] http://www.englishlessonsbrighton.co.uk/this-next-day-week/
    Will do.

    I'm hoping to get a few pollsters to go on the record.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,543
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/976953664865697794

    The irrational and the incompetent.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,430
    williamglenn said:

    Satire is dead.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/976949703630827520


    I'd love to know who the Mail thinks are members of Britain's ruling class.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Alarming stuff - hope you're OK ?
    Their confidence is as much training as casual bravery,though.
    Yes I am fine but everything reeks of smoke. I take the point of training but they impressed the hell out of me today. They did seem relieved it was a diesel rather than petrol but the heat was intense with almost all of the aluminium at the front and on the bonnet burnt away.
    Cars will burn hot but they are very unlikely to explode, especially if they are diesel. Not a fun way to spend your day however.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,474
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Why are remainers obsessed by blue passports ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,143
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
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