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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier –

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    You can put a match out in a bucket of petrol. (So long as you've blown away the vapour first.)
    I would think that a rather hazardous experiment, as the vapour pressure of petrol would replenish it too quickly for the test.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1RMrh9Lf1I

    It's a cigarette, but the same principle applies.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    On the positive side, you now get to go new car shopping.

  • TGOHF said:

    Why are remainers obsessed by blue passports ?

    The Daily Mail are Remainers?

    Have you fallen down and hit your head on something hard?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,721
    TGOHF said:

    Why are remainers obsessed by blue passports ?

    May we assume you didn't see the Daily Mail front page below?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    viewcode said:

    TGOHF said:

    Why are remainers obsessed by blue passports ?

    May we assume you didn't see the Daily Mail front page below?
    I wouldn’t mind but it’s the wrong effing blue. Literally a pale imitation of the old one.
  • God I hate people who pretend to be ordinary working class outsiders.

    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/976915487715201026
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Wow well as said thank goodness you’re ok. How old was the car I mean will this become a recall thing?
  • DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Can I ask what the make and model is?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Kippers returning home...

    Worksop South East (Bassetlaw) result:

    LAB: 77.3% (+21.1)
    CON: 15.2% (+15.2)
    LDEM: 7.5% (+7.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No UKIP (-25.2), Grn (-10.3) and Ind (-8.3) as prev.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Can I ask what the make and model is?
    Was is a more applicable tense. An Audi A4.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Wow well as said thank goodness you’re ok. How old was the car I mean will this become a recall thing?
    5 years old, about 110k miles. Been pretty reliable until now.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Can I ask what the make and model is?
    Was is a more applicable tense. An Audi A4.
    Cheers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    dixiedean said:

    Kippers returning home...

    Worksop South East (Bassetlaw) result:

    LAB: 77.3% (+21.1)
    CON: 15.2% (+15.2)
    LDEM: 7.5% (+7.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No UKIP (-25.2), Grn (-10.3) and Ind (-8.3) as prev.

    CON up infinity is what I'm seeing. :smiley:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Wow well as said thank goodness you’re ok. How old was the car I mean will this become a recall thing?
    5 years old, about 110k miles. Been pretty reliable until now.
    Ha is that like all seemed to be going well when he jumped from the 20th floor until he hit the ground?

    (Able to make that joke as all was well with you.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    Yes, fair point, so really polls remain useless since there's no way to tell which ones are most accurate, and those that are might be from pure luck. But we just cannot give them up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited March 2018
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Can I ask what the make and model is?
    Was is a more applicable tense. An Audi A4.
    Bloody German made crap ;-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Really not sure. I think there was a problem with the clutch because the gears suddenly started slipping and I started to lose power just before I stopped. How that led to a fire I really don't know.
    Wow well as said thank goodness you’re ok. How old was the car I mean will this become a recall thing?
    5 years old, about 110k miles. Been pretty reliable until now.
    Ha is that like all seemed to be going well when he jumped from the 20th floor until he hit the ground?

    (Able to make that joke as all was well with you.)
    Yes, a bit like that. Anyway off for a shower to try and get rid of this smoke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806

    God I hate people who pretend to be ordinary working class outsiders.

    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/976915487715201026

    IIRC Hillary Clinton said she couldn't think of anything more outsider than being a woman president. Which I could certainly see of the former first lady, senator and secretary of state. Such an outsider.

    Of course, even Jeb Bush tried that nonsense.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Sympathies - you made the papers (unless someone else was equally unlucky!)

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/angus-mearns/623127/car-goes-up-in-flames-on-a90-near-stracathro/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited March 2018

    God I hate people who pretend to be ordinary working class outsiders.

    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/976915487715201026

    Its like Lady Bucket playing the one of the ordinary working class folk tag.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Kippers returning home...

    Worksop South East (Bassetlaw) result:

    LAB: 77.3% (+21.1)
    CON: 15.2% (+15.2)
    LDEM: 7.5% (+7.5)

    Labour HOLD.

    No UKIP (-25.2), Grn (-10.3) and Ind (-8.3) as prev.

    CON up infinity is what I'm seeing. :smiley:
    LD's too :).
    We can project a H of C with an infinite number of Con and LD and zero Labour...???

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    The Mail is understandably cross: the blue-passport thing was a totemic Brexit issue - a return to the days when Britain was glorious and free - but this makes it all look a bit naff. Does this also signify that Dacre is falling out of love with Theresa? He's given her numerous chances, but with this, and fish, perhaps he's finally had enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Sympathies - you made the papers (unless someone else was equally unlucky!)

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/angus-mearns/623127/car-goes-up-in-flames-on-a90-near-stracathro/
    Holy smokes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Sympathies - you made the papers (unless someone else was equally unlucky!)

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/angus-mearns/623127/car-goes-up-in-flames-on-a90-near-stracathro/
    Yep, that's it. Fame at last.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Usually a failed turbo seal allowing oil into the hot side of the turbo and exhaust manifold.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903
    For those wanting to set a high bar for Corbyn here are the swings from government to opposition from the general election result to the following year's local elections:

    1980-1981 Con -> Lab 5%
    1983-1984 Con -> Lab 7%
    1987-1988 Con -> Lab 5%
    1992-1993 Con -> Lab 8%
    1997-1998 Lab -> Con 3%
    2001-2002 Lab -> Con 5%
    2005-2006 Lab -> Con 8%
    2010-2011 Con -> Lab 3%
    2015-2016 Con -> Lab 4%
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Looks like @TissuePrice didn't succeed. .

    Labour GAIN Leek West (Staffordshire Moorlands) from Conservative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    edited March 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    What impressed me most is that when my car was very well lit and spewing black smoke over the carriageway the Firemen went right up to it and started hosing it down. Personally, I was about 30m away because I was genuinely concerned that the fuel tank might explode. The casual bravery of these men is just so impressive.

    Blimey thank goodness you are ok.

    May I ask how a car just catches fire these days?
    Usually a failed turbo seal allowing oil into the hot side of the turbo and exhaust manifold.
    Thanks. I’m not sure I’m any the wiser but I did ask.

    Edit: nite all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,548
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like @TissuePrice didn't succeed. .

    Labour GAIN Leek West (Staffordshire Moorlands) from Conservative.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/976965766523314177?s=19
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought it was only Remainers obsessed with this story.
    So did I. What a ridiculous headline
    From the outside it looks like De La Rue bid high in the belief that the Government would feel obliged to keep the contract here, and have now leaked the likely outcome to try to salvage the situation. Good on the Government for calling their bluff.
    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Leek West (Staffordshire Moorlands) result:

    LAB: 42.9% (+23.6)
    CON: 32.6% (+0.6)
    LDEM: 19.2% (+8.7)
    IND: 5.4% (+5.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    No Local Indy Group (-14.0), Grn (-11.1) and Ind(s) (-13.2) as prev.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Bunbury (Cheshire East) result:

    CON: 53.3% (-16.9)
    LDEM: 27.5% (+27.5)
    LAB: 14.3% (-3.4)
    GRN: 4.8% (-7.2)

    Conservative HOLD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    Ahem *prepares joke to lighten mood* and of course, at the end of the day you still ended up in Aberdeen, so no way to salvage the day.

    I did have a colleague once whose housed burned down, and weeks later they were at a public meeting where the fire service were showing video highlights of their year, and they got to watch footage of their place burning with dozens of people present. Not great times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    Bunbury? Leek West? These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names, I'm going to bed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Strong results for Labour this evening
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T I didn't have one of my better days today. I was driving to Aberdeen and my car caught fire, eventually burning out almost completely. No one hurt thankfully but pretty damn depressing.

    Ahem *prepares joke to lighten mood* and of course, at the end of the day you still ended up in Aberdeen, so no way to salvage the day.

    I did have a colleague once whose housed burned down, and weeks later they were at a public meeting where the fire service were showing video highlights of their year, and they got to watch footage of their place burning with dozens of people present. Not great times.
    Didn't make Aberdeen funnily enough. Trying again on Wednesday. You have all been warned. Nite all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    edited March 2018

    For those wanting to set a high bar for Corbyn here are the swings from government to opposition from the general election result to the following year's local elections:

    1980-1981 Con -> Lab 5%
    1983-1984 Con -> Lab 7%
    1987-1988 Con -> Lab 5%
    1992-1993 Con -> Lab 8%
    1997-1998 Lab -> Con 3%
    2001-2002 Lab -> Con 5%
    2005-2006 Lab -> Con 8%
    2010-2011 Con -> Lab 3%
    2015-2016 Con -> Lab 4%

    So if Corbyn is heading for PM like Smith and Blair from 1992-1997 and Cameron from 2005-2006 he should be aiming for a swing from the Tories of at least 8%+ in the local elections in May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601

    God I hate people who pretend to be ordinary working class outsiders.

    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/976915487715201026

    Bar Cameron and arguably as the niece of Lord Longford including him, Harman is posher than any of our PMs or Leaders of the Opposition since Douglas Home
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    edited March 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Why am I reminded of one of those decks of Most-wanted Iraqis playing cards....?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,721
    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Pulpstar said:

    Strong results for Labour this evening

    So far. But they are ultimately ephemera. Unless a serious long-lasting trend emerges.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Fox is pals with Rove too, it was thanks to Fox Howard was able to keep some sort of relationship with the George W Bush administration as Rove loathed Howard after he backtracked on IDS' support for Blair and the Iraq War over the failure to find weapons of mass destruction and Rove even turned up at the UK embassy on general election night in 2005 wearing a Labour rosette.

    Fox may be able to be the Tories closest link to the Trump administration too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

    I lack any culture that is not pop culture, alas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Penalties would be better...
    Told it's now a draw between Labour and the Tories in Ockendon (Thurrock). Coin toss?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903
    HYUFD said:

    For those wanting to set a high bar for Corbyn here are the swings from government to opposition from the general election result to the following year's local elections:

    1980-1981 Con -> Lab 5%
    1983-1984 Con -> Lab 7%
    1987-1988 Con -> Lab 5%
    1992-1993 Con -> Lab 8%
    1997-1998 Lab -> Con 3%
    2001-2002 Lab -> Con 5%
    2005-2006 Lab -> Con 8%
    2010-2011 Con -> Lab 3%
    2015-2016 Con -> Lab 4%

    So if Corbyn is heading for PM like Smith and Blair from 1992-1997 and Cameron from 2005-2006 he should be aiming for a swing from the Tories of at least 8%+ in the local elections in May.
    Well its a small sample and the swings are dependent upon the starting point.

    But looking further back the Conservatives in 1967 and 1975 and Labour in 1971 all had very good local election wins and went on to gain power at the subsequent general election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

    I lack any culture that is not pop culture, alas.
    Keats and Yeats on your side then...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903
    dixiedean said:

    Penalties would be better...
    Told it's now a draw between Labour and the Tories in Ockendon (Thurrock). Coin toss?

    Or drawing of straws.

    Do they have a vote to decide which ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518

    dixiedean said:

    Penalties would be better...
    Told it's now a draw between Labour and the Tories in Ockendon (Thurrock). Coin toss?

    Or drawing of straws.

    Do they have a vote to decide which ?
    They could toss a coin to decide whether to draw lots or play scissoors, paper stone.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    The Tories were one vote ahead of Labour on the first count in Ockendon.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,721
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

    I lack any culture that is not pop culture, alas.
    Keats and Yeats on your side then...
    Ah, but is love on Dixie's side?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUT9hZWTWM0

    [and if it's hit the point in the evening where I start posting pop vids, it's probably time to bed. @TheScreamingEagles , I meant it about the sources, please]
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601

    HYUFD said:

    For those wanting to set a high bar for Corbyn here are the swings from government to opposition from the general election result to the following year's local elections:

    1980-1981 Con -> Lab 5%
    1983-1984 Con -> Lab 7%
    1987-1988 Con -> Lab 5%
    1992-1993 Con -> Lab 8%
    1997-1998 Lab -> Con 3%
    2001-2002 Lab -> Con 5%
    2005-2006 Lab -> Con 8%
    2010-2011 Con -> Lab 3%
    2015-2016 Con -> Lab 4%

    So if Corbyn is heading for PM like Smith and Blair from 1992-1997 and Cameron from 2005-2006 he should be aiming for a swing from the Tories of at least 8%+ in the local elections in May.
    Well its a small sample and the swings are dependent upon the starting point.

    But looking further back the Conservatives in 1967 and 1975 and Labour in 1971 all had very good local election wins and went on to gain power at the subsequent general election.
    Yes opposition parties tend to get a swing to them in local elections but it is the size of the swing that is key to whether they will form the next government.

    If the swing is 0-5% they probably won't, if the swing is 5-10% they probably will.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Tory's win Thurrock on toss of coin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Penalties would be better...
    Told it's now a draw between Labour and the Tories in Ockendon (Thurrock). Coin toss?

    Or drawing of straws.

    Do they have a vote to decide which ?
    They could toss a coin to decide whether to draw lots or play scissoors, paper stone.
    Death match the only suitable way to decide - we'll see who believes in democracy the most
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    viewcode said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

    I lack any culture that is not pop culture, alas.
    Keats and Yeats on your side then...
    Ah, but is love on Dixie's side?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUT9hZWTWM0

    [and if it's hit the point in the evening where I start posting pop vids, it's probably time to bed. @TheScreamingEagles , I meant it about the sources, please]
    All things are welcome and needed on my side! Sleep well!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,091
    Lib Dems gain Aylesbury Central
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    Some drama, if no deeper meaning to these by-elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    dixiedean said:

    Some drama, if no deeper meaning

    That's my mission statement when it comes to posts, what a coincidence.

    Night all
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    Pulpstar said:

    Strong results for Labour this evening

    You gave them the kiss of death on the coin toss!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Bunbury?...These by-elections don't even have the decency to have truly memorable ward names,

    Ah, but you don't know your Wilde... :)

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Bunburying

    And possibly more to it than that.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2001/jun/05/theatre.artsfeatures
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    dixiedean said:

    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

    Yellow Kippers.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806

    Pulpstar said:

    Strong results for Labour this evening

    You gave them the kiss of death on the coin toss!
    Well, Tories are for the wealthy, it would make sense for a coin to favour them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,548
    edited March 2018
    dixiedean said:

    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/976972248430063616

    Those kippers are not breaking to the Tories.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,228
    The radio tonight is saying the passport contract has not yet been awarded? Looks like a bit of political stage management to me. My guess is after a public outcry, the contract will go to the British firm after all, but for a reduced quote, saving the taxpayer tens of millions, and the Government will come out looking both patriotic and responsible guardians of the public purse.

    All probably because they need cover for making a big concession like selling out the fisherman or something probably, which is sad, but the passport thing is still quite clever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/976972248430063616

    Those kippers are not breaking to the Tories.
    Well the Tories did gain the seat from UKIP so obviously rather more than a few kippers broke for the Tories!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/976972248430063616

    Those kippers are not breaking to the Tories.
    Well the Tories did gain the seat from UKIP so obviously rather more than a few kippers broke for the Tories!
    You are the expert in straw clutching (drawing) :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    edit
  • What a disgusting place Oxford is. Close it down.

    An Oxford University student who went in costume as a Ku Klux Klan member to a college fancy dress party has been selected for this weekend’s Boat Race despite being banned from all social events at his college.

    Benedict Aldous, 20, was on the reserves but received a call-up for Saturday’s race after a rower fell ill.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxford-boat-race-rower-benedict-aldous-wore-kkk-fancy-dress-to-party-dfg326h2c
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Portillo on This Week says he does not think May is particularly up to the job of PM but she does not create the antipathy Osborne did. Though Johnson says Cameron and Osborne better at winning elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    edited March 2018
    Bolton appointment may at least be good news for May in toughening up the Trump administration stance on Putin and Russia
    https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/976174256232026112
    https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/975848956507971585
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903

    The radio tonight is saying the passport contract has not yet been awarded? Looks like a bit of political stage management to me. My guess is after a public outcry, the contract will go to the British firm after all, but for a reduced quote, saving the taxpayer tens of millions, and the Government will come out looking both patriotic and responsible guardians of the public purse.

    All probably because they need cover for making a big concession like selling out the fisherman or something probably, which is sad, but the passport thing is still quite clever.

    When I read the story yesterday I thought that that the contract had been awarded surprisingly quickly.

    The only guaranteed thing is that's its going to make people even more cynical about how government operates.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    I think Trump won't make it to a second term now. The appointment of Bolton is just such a collosal about turn from his entire campaign on foreign policy. Uuge
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    What a disgusting place Oxford is. Close it down.

    An Oxford University student who went in costume as a Ku Klux Klan member to a college fancy dress party has been selected for this weekend’s Boat Race despite being banned from all social events at his college.

    Benedict Aldous, 20, was on the reserves but received a call-up for Saturday’s race after a rower fell ill.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/oxford-boat-race-rower-benedict-aldous-wore-kkk-fancy-dress-to-party-dfg326h2c

    Ed Balls dressed as a Nazi when he was a student. He managed to survive somehow
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861

    dixiedean said:

    Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

    LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
    CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
    LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
    GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
    IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

    Yellow Kippers.....
    The NOTA factor
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    "EU and six other countries exempted from US metals tariffs"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43505804
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    What is the kremlinology of the Bolton appointment? Trump has often been critical of the Bush-era neocons, and Bolton is no fan of Russia, so that is two reasons not to appoint him. Has Bolton been imposed on Trump?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861

    What is the kremlinology of the Bolton appointment? Trump has often been critical of the Bush-era neocons, and Bolton is no fan of Russia, so that is two reasons not to appoint him. Has Bolton been imposed on Trump?

    No
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    The acid test for many people would be do you want your passport produced by the most efficient (ie cheapest) bidder (in France/Netherlands) or do you want to pay £10 extra (or whatever it is) and have it made in the UK, I for one would not be sure what the answer would be for most people. If we start going down that route again, we end up with aircraft carriers and stuff that is way overpriced but is made in the UK
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    What is the kremlinology of the Bolton appointment? Trump has often been critical of the Bush-era neocons, and Bolton is no fan of Russia, so that is two reasons not to appoint him. Has Bolton been imposed on Trump?

    No
    In other news, it looks like Bolton is linked to Cambridge Analytica. It is hard to keep up with this. Maybe in a day or so the American press will have figured it out and/or Trump will have replaced someone else (two this week already).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    The acid test for many people would be do you want your passport produced by the most efficient (ie cheapest) bidder (in France/Netherlands) or do you want to pay £10 extra (or whatever it is) and have it made in the UK, I for one would not be sure what the answer would be for most people. If we start going down that route again, we end up with aircraft carriers and stuff that is way overpriced but is made in the UK
    On the one hand, you've got the extreme free trade, chlorinated chicken and Euro-passport crowd. On the other, the trade deficit hawks and take back control alliance. It is hard to call and some are beginning to suspect the government's position is even less coherent than Labour's, which is a shame because Labour's really does not matter whereas the government is responsible for steering us to the post-Brexit sunlit uplands.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    What is the kremlinology of the Bolton appointment? Trump has often been critical of the Bush-era neocons, and Bolton is no fan of Russia, so that is two reasons not to appoint him. Has Bolton been imposed on Trump?

    “Kremlinology” ho ho.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861
    edited March 2018
    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    Maybe they can come back to HMG with a (much) lower offer? :p
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Trump won't make it to a second term now. The appointment of Bolton is just such a collosal about turn from his entire campaign on foreign policy. Uuge

    I can't imagine Bolton and Trump lasting long given their different positions.
    But what is the relevance to Trump making it to a second term?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    Absolutely right.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    God I hate people who pretend to be ordinary working class outsiders.

    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/976915487715201026

    Its like Lady Bucket playing the one of the ordinary working class folk tag.
    Surely Hyacinth was the opposite - aspiring/pretending to be upper/middle class?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,861
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    Maybe they can come back to HMG with a (much) lower offer? :p
    You have one chance to be honest.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    Maybe they can come back to HMG with a (much) lower offer? :p
    I can smell a legal action that will end up costing just about everybody but the lawyers.......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    HYUFD said:

    Bolton appointment may at least be good news for May in toughening up the Trump administration stance on Putin and Russia
    https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/976174256232026112
    https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/975848956507971585

    Unlikely. That sort of talk appears to be one of the reasons Tillerson was sacked.

    Bolton was picked because he agrees with Trump's instincts on attacking Iran and North Korea. Trump's craves yes men (which is not exactly a ideal qualification for nation security advisors...), and if Bolton doesn't comply, he won't last long.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    What about the £500 million being taken out of the British economy and injected into the French? What about French protectionism: that their passports must be made in France so our companies cannot compete? This is the same trick the Americans pull: use spurious national security concerns to build up home industries then send them out to conquer the world's markets.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Trump won't make it to a second term now. The appointment of Bolton is just such a collosal about turn from his entire campaign on foreign policy. Uuge

    I can't imagine Bolton and Trump lasting long given their different positions.
    But what is the relevance to Trump making it to a second term?
    It is perhaps relevant to all of us surviving long enough for him to contest the next presidential election...

    There's a good article on the implications for how the showdown with a north Korea might be managed:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/mcmaster-trump-north-korea/555752/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,548

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    The acid test for many people would be do you want your passport produced by the most efficient (ie cheapest) bidder (in France/Netherlands) or do you want to pay £10 extra (or whatever it is) and have it made in the UK, I for one would not be sure what the answer would be for most people. If we start going down that route again, we end up with aircraft carriers and stuff that is way overpriced but is made in the UK
    On the one hand, you've got the extreme free trade, chlorinated chicken and Euro-passport crowd. On the other, the trade deficit hawks and take back control alliance. It is hard to call and some are beginning to suspect the government's position is even less coherent than Labour's, which is a shame because Labour's really does not matter whereas the government is responsible for steering us to the post-Brexit sunlit uplands.
    Yes, the passport fracas is a weathervane as to whether the free traders or the economic protectionists are driving the bus, that is its significance.

This discussion has been closed.