politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Democrats now odds on favourite to take Pennsylvania 18 –

First (unlike the Ds?)

OldKingCole said:

Second, like the Tories next time. What happened to my earlier post, I wonder.

Vanilla gremlin.

Your comment is here

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/6094/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-democrats-now-odds-on-favourite-to-take-pennsylvania-18#latest

If the GOP loses they can blame Tillerson and or Trump

DavidL said:

Getting tempted to bet on the republican. Way too much optimism and Trump disdain distorting the odds, I fear.

Plus the candidate is no Roy Moore.

Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?

Polls with bigger samples are better for the Republicans.

Yeah; I've just taken Shadsy's 6/4 on Saccone

Come on Saccone !

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

Saccone is 6-4, Lamb 1-2 with Ladbrokes

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

Saccone is 6-4, Lamb 1-2 with Ladbrokes

Are the LibDems having a leadership election?

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

538 went over the special election, said the 6 point poll had nudged the Dems ahead by about two points in the polling average, but that was still a toss up, and given the unreliability of polls they would be unsurprised at anything from a Saccone 8 point win to Lamb by 10. In short, unless you've got some on the ground info or get silly odds, steer well clear. Having said, the 12/1 on Saccone winning 55% looks far more tempting than the 9/4 on him losing with less than 45.

MJW said:

the 12/1 on Saccone winning 55% looks far more tempting than the 9/4 on him losing with less than 45.

Agreed.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.

MikeSmithson said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.

My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage

That sounds like the existing plan!

Betfair settling in around 2.1 Saccone, 1.9 Lamb. (Which seems about right to me)
On the basis of betting for expected value, not who we think will win Shadsy's 2.5 is the clear punt.

AndyJS said:

ABLAABL said:

Interesting election today in Pennsylvania. If the Republicans lose, Trump will start to feel the heat ahead of November midterms...

https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-potential-bellwether-for-us-politics-in-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-district-election-today

Trump's approval rating is 42% with registered/likely voters according to 538. That seems like a relatively high figure in mid-term when 46% was enough to win the 2016 election.

Although he was facing Hillary

Elliot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

The world is currently on a knife edge of whether this sort of regime or democracy will win out.

Does appear the UK has been letting Russia get away with murder for 15 years - from June 2017

https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.crQV9bMdv#.uf67AWPd4

https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21

I think Brexit has slipped down the agenda for now but good will on both sides works goes without saying

Point of information but I understand the polls close 8pm EDT which is midnight GMT. We switched to daylight savings time last weekend here in the U, S and A.

A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784

Cheltenham - Day 1

1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

Not my worst day ever...

Big move to Dems on Betfair:

Dem 1.5
Rep 2.96

Meanwhile, in other UK news ... apparently R4's File on Four at 20.00 h tonight will feature the delights of UK prisons.

The UK regime clearly aims to enrich the shareholders of companies which build prisons. There's no other rationale. In Norway and Denmark, the re-offending rate is ~25%.

Scott_P said:

Cheltenham - Day 1

1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

Not my worst day ever...

That’s a good day out!

rural_voter said:

Meanwhile, in other UK news ... apparently R4's File on Four at 20.00 h tonight will feature the delights of UK prisons.

The UK regime clearly aims to enrich the shareholders of companies which build prisons. There's no other rationale. In Norway and Denmark, the re-offending rate is ~25%.

I think it is the offenders who are guilty of enriching the shareholders of companies that build prisons - and those that run them.

The Russian Embassy twitter account are well tweeting.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/973611069687156736

https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/973623557895974913

Scott_P said:

Cheltenham - Day 1

1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

Not my worst day ever...

And all before Brexit and while we are still in the EU...!

rpjs said:

Point of information but I understand the polls close 8pm EDT which is midnight GMT. We switched to daylight savings time last weekend here in the U, S and A.

I didn't know what time it was,
Then I met you.
Oh, what a lovely time it was,
How sublime it was too!

I didn't know what day it was,
You held my hand.
Warm like the month of May it was,
And I'll say it was grand.

I didn't know what year it was,
Life was no prize.
I wanted love and here it was
Shining out of your eyes.
I'm wise,
And I know what time it is
Yes, I'm wise and I know what time it is now

AndyJS said:

Trump's approval rating is 42% with registered/likely voters according to 538. That seems like a relatively high figure in mid-term when 46% was enough to win the 2016 election.

It's lower than any post-war president at this stage of his term though. Nearest was Ford at 44%.

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage

I can assure you Mike that Scotland will follow suit ...

Scotland did not reach the Group Stage Jack.

Oddly, there has been a very big difference between the Betfair market and that on PredictIt (a legal US-only political betting exchange) for a couple of days.

It's not straightforward to exploit it, as PredictIt only allows US bettors and Betfair doesn't allow US accounts. The US money currently makes it about 1/2 Dems.

Gardenwalker said:

Where’s Kenny Everett when you need him?

https://youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI

RobD said:

Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

* They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

"On Betfair on Monday punters rated this as a 60-40 shot for the publicans."

Does it need a shift of ten pints?

Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/973595553983533056

Gardenwalker said:

Russophobes may be interested to learn that even NZ is not immune to the hand of Putin.

Our Deputy Leader (soon to become Acting PM) and leader of the ukippy NZ First Party made a trade deal with the Russians a condition of his coalition agreement, and is currently doing some very weird Russia-apologetics.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102193946/pm-jacinda-ardern-reassures-eu-over-winston-peters-russia-comments

What is it about Putin that is so attractive to these people? Money, homo-erotics, or sheer power worship?

Its similar to the sort of thing that made people support Assad when he was going around killing his own people - and worse.

They seem to like strongmen. Which shows them up when they witter on about 'democracy'.

Theuniondivvie said:

Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/973595553983533056

Have they let him back into the Labour Party yet? He seems to have the same talking points as Seamus Milne.

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?

Me neither.....

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?

I remember when he was the star turn on Celebrity Big Brother.

That's more amazing than it sounds as I never watched Big Brother, but the clips of him playing at being a cat were sort of unforgettable.

Polls close at 0000 GMT (2000 EDT) (they have "sprung forward" and so there is only a four hour time difference)

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?

And Better Together.

I'd forgotten that he was also supposed to be doing a turn for Arron Bank's Westmonster. On checking, they're currently frotting themselves into a frenzy over the Telford abuse thing. That may be an uncomfortable fit with GG's worldview.

glw said:

RobD said:

Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

* They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.

The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.

glw said:

RobD said:

Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

* They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.

Uzbekistan ?

Gardenwalker said:

It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

That is a stunningly brilliant Freudian slip.

Just watching Trump Tillerson and Co. It's difficult imagining what they could have been going through their heads when they voted for this man. I'd sooner have Putin any day of the week with or without Novichok.

Ishmael_Z said:

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

glw said:

RobD said:

Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

* They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.

The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.

I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.

It shows how bonkers things are that I am only moderately sure that when you say Trump you mean Putin.

Hehe!
I meant Putin.

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

glw said:

RobD said:

Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

* They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.

The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.

I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.

Well Putin knows that he supplies the gas that Europe needs to keep warm and alive in winter so the EU isn't going to do that much.

nielh said:

Roger said:

Just watching Trump Tillerson and Co. It's difficult imagining what they could have been going through their heads when they voted for this man. I'd sooner have Putin any day of the week with or without Novichok.

Thats how it plays out with a lot of people. Putin comes across as a lot smarter than Trump.

With Tillerson, I think I know what I'm getting, i.e. an oil co. exec. turned Foreign Sec. He may even have been slightly more competent than our clown in the F.O. - not difficult.

With Trump, I've no idea. We know in the UK that people from very privileged backgrounds can get an Oxbridge II(ii) even if they're as thick as two short planks. I presume the same's true there.

With Putin, I think I know. But an ex-KGB man will be expert at deceiving and manipulating people so I may be totally wrong.