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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Democrats now odds on favourite to take Pennsylvania 18 –

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited March 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Democrats now odds on favourite to take Pennsylvania 18 – the Congressional district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

New market on Rick Saccone's vote share in today's Pennsylvania special election ?? pic.twitter.com/VpMjd1koe3

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    First (unlike the Ds?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    Second, like the Tories next time. What happened to my earlier post, I wonder.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    OldKingCole said:

    Second, like the Tories next time. What happened to my earlier post, I wonder.

    Vanilla gremlin.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/6094/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-democrats-now-odds-on-favourite-to-take-pennsylvania-18#latest
  • ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 23
    Interesting election today in Pennsylvania. If the Republicans lose, Trump will start to feel the heat ahead of November midterms...

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-potential-bellwether-for-us-politics-in-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-district-election-today
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    If the GOP loses they can blame Tillerson and or Trump
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    Getting tempted to bet on the republican. Way too much optimism and Trump disdain distorting the odds, I fear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    DavidL said:

    Getting tempted to bet on the republican. Way too much optimism and Trump disdain distorting the odds, I fear.

    Plus the candidate is no Roy Moore.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    edited March 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Second, like the Tories next time. What happened to my earlier post, I wonder.

    Vanilla gremlin.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/6094/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-democrats-now-odds-on-favourite-to-take-pennsylvania-18#latest
    Thanks. Shall have to consult the Elf Service and see what they can do about it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    edited March 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?

    Those polls with bigger samples are better for the Republicans.

    Maybe they get out into the hills of East Bumfuck, Nowhere - and ask a few more banjo-strumming folk.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?

    Polls with bigger samples are better for the Republicans.
    Yeah; I've just taken Shadsy's 6/4 on Saccone
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2018
    "On Betfair on Monday punters rated this as a 60-40 shot for the publicans."

    #AlMurraywinninghere
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Come on Saccone !
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

    Saccone is 6-4, Lamb 1-2 with Ladbrokes :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ABLAABL said:

    Interesting election today in Pennsylvania. If the Republicans lose, Trump will start to feel the heat ahead of November midterms...

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-potential-bellwether-for-us-politics-in-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-district-election-today

    Trump's approval rating is 42% with registered/likely voters according to 538. That seems like a relatively high figure in mid-term when 46% was enough to win the 2016 election.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

    Saccone is 6-4, Lamb 1-2 with Ladbrokes :)
    Are the LibDems having a leadership election?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    edited March 2018
    Betfair now have the Republican at evens, and the Democrat at 1.72 (to back)
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/27938931/market?marketId=1.139233341
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,774
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

    538 went over the special election, said the 6 point poll had nudged the Dems ahead by about two points in the polling average, but that was still a toss up, and given the unreliability of polls they would be unsurprised at anything from a Saccone 8 point win to Lamb by 10. In short, unless you've got some on the ground info or get silly odds, steer well clear. Having said, the 12/1 on Saccone winning 55% looks far more tempting than the 9/4 on him losing with less than 45.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    MJW said:

    the 12/1 on Saccone winning 55% looks far more tempting than the 9/4 on him losing with less than 45.

    Agreed.

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    The world is currently on a knife edge of whether this sort of regime or democracy will win out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    MikeSmithson said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage
    That sounds like the existing plan!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,795
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
    That's what Russian media say with a wink wink nudge nudge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Betfair settling in around 2.1 Saccone, 1.9 Lamb. (Which seems about right to me)
    On the basis of betting for expected value, not who we think will win Shadsy's 2.5 is the clear punt.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    I’m tempted to tell Putin that Mark Reckless was the MI6 handler for all Russian defectors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,857
    AndyJS said:

    ABLAABL said:

    Interesting election today in Pennsylvania. If the Republicans lose, Trump will start to feel the heat ahead of November midterms...

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-potential-bellwether-for-us-politics-in-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-district-election-today

    Trump's approval rating is 42% with registered/likely voters according to 538. That seems like a relatively high figure in mid-term when 46% was enough to win the 2016 election.
    Although he was facing Hillary
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Sandpit said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage
    That sounds like the existing plan!
    Manchester is definitely in England, so I think we should enter Manchester City in place of England :>
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited March 2018
    Elliot said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    The world is currently on a knife edge of whether this sort of regime or democracy will win out.
    Does appear the UK has been letting Russia get away with murder for 15 years - from June 2017

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.crQV9bMdv#.uf67AWPd4
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage

    I can assure you Mike that Scotland will follow suit ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/DeusExCinema/status/973556159083884544
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,064
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21

    I think Brexit has slipped down the agenda for now but good will on both sides works goes without saying
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, a poll with 372 respondents?

    Those polls with bigger samples are better for the Republicans.

    Maybe they get out into the hills of East Bumfuck, Nowhere - and ask a few more banjo-strumming folk.
    There's a quote floating round from on of the polling companies saying they were having difficulty finding Republican respondents - as in response dents who fit traditionally republican demographics.

    I do not trust the polling for this race one bit.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Point of information but I understand the polls close 8pm EDT which is midnight GMT. We switched to daylight savings time last weekend here in the U, S and A.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21

    I think Brexit has slipped down the agenda for now but good will on both sides works goes without saying
    It's just standard good faith wording that shit-stirring journalists are trying to make a story out of
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
    https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/brexit/status/973613773134221314?s=21

    I think Brexit has slipped down the agenda for now but good will on both sides works goes without saying
    It's just standard good faith wording that shit-stirring journalists are trying to make a story out of
    It's outrageous use of anodyne boilerplate.

    "The U.K. and EU “shall refrain from any measures which could jeopardize the attainment of the objectives of this agreement,” the draft treaty says. “The parties shall, in full mutual respect and good faith, assist each other in carrying out tasks which flow from this agreement.”

    This means war.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cheltenham - Day 1

    1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
    2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
    2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
    3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
    4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
    4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
    5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

    Not my worst day ever...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Sandpit said:

    A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
    https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784

    'Military grade' as opposed to the rubbish stuff you buy down at Wilko.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    Big move to Dems on Betfair:

    Dem 1.5
    Rep 2.96
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
    https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784

    'Military grade' as opposed to the rubbish stuff you buy down at Wilko.
    Possible to make Ricin in a basic lab. Novichok nerve agents? Not so much....
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Meanwhile, in other UK news ... apparently R4's File on Four at 20.00 h tonight will feature the delights of UK prisons.

    The UK regime clearly aims to enrich the shareholders of companies which build prisons. There's no other rationale. In Norway and Denmark, the re-offending rate is ~25%.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sandpit said:

    A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
    https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784

    I think Leavers and Remainers alike, other than the fringe nutters on left and right, support a close Western alliance against the Russian dictatorship.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Scott_P said:

    Cheltenham - Day 1

    1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
    2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
    2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
    3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
    4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
    4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
    5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

    Not my worst day ever...

    That’s a good day out!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    MikeL said:

    Big move to Dems on Betfair:

    Dem 1.5
    Rep 2.96

    Err yes I note that too...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited March 2018
    rural_voter said:

    Meanwhile, in other UK news ... apparently R4's File on Four at 20.00 h tonight will feature the delights of UK prisons.

    The UK regime clearly aims to enrich the shareholders of companies which build prisons. There's no other rationale. In Norway and Denmark, the re-offending rate is ~25%.

    I think it is the offenders who are guilty of enriching the shareholders of companies that build prisons - and those that run them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move to Dems on Betfair:

    Dem 1.5
    Rep 2.96

    Err yes I note that too...
    I wouldn't trust the polling or the betting swings. They shifted heavily to Remain on polling day in June 16.

    The Republicans had the votes last time, on the other hand the resignation was for naughtiness. As a toincosz the value is on the Republican.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    The Russian Embassy twitter account are well tweeting.

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/973611069687156736
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rare round of applause for a British Conservative in the European Parliament today:
    https://twitter.com/Ashleyfoxmep/status/973550913158774784

    'Military grade' as opposed to the rubbish stuff you buy down at Wilko.
    Is military grade better or worse?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,332
    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/973623557895974913
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Russian Embassy twitter account are well tweeting.

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/973611069687156736

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Scott_P said:

    Cheltenham - Day 1

    1:30 Summerville boy - WIN
    2:10 Petit Mouchoir - LOSE
    2:50 Coo Star Sivola - WIN
    3:30 Buveur D'Air - WIN
    4:10 La Bague Au Roi - LOSE
    4:50 Jury Duty - LOSE
    5:30 Mister Whitaker - WIN

    Not my worst day ever...

    And all before Brexit and while we are still in the EU...!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Russian Embassy twitter account are well tweeting.

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/973611069687156736

    They'll be dancing in the streets of Mayfair Moscow tonight.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    rpjs said:

    Point of information but I understand the polls close 8pm EDT which is midnight GMT. We switched to daylight savings time last weekend here in the U, S and A.

    I didn't know what time it was,
    Then I met you.
    Oh, what a lovely time it was,
    How sublime it was too!

    I didn't know what day it was,
    You held my hand.
    Warm like the month of May it was,
    And I'll say it was grand.

    I didn't know what year it was,
    Life was no prize.
    I wanted love and here it was
    Shining out of your eyes.
    I'm wise,
    And I know what time it is
    Yes, I'm wise and I know what time it is now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/973623557895974913

    As he said to Michael Gove, “You’re doing great...”
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    AndyJS said:


    Trump's approval rating is 42% with registered/likely voters according to 538. That seems like a relatively high figure in mid-term when 46% was enough to win the 2016 election.

    It's lower than any post-war president at this stage of his term though. Nearest was Ford at 44%.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Russian Embassy twitter account are well tweeting.

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/973611069687156736

    They’re right, if you use chemical weapons in someone else’s country you should expect a firm reaction to it.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage

    I can assure you Mike that Scotland will follow suit ...
    Scotland did not reach the Group Stage Jack.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Where’s Kenny Everett when you need him?
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Oddly, there has been a very big difference between the Betfair market and that on PredictIt (a legal US-only political betting exchange) for a couple of days.

    It's not straightforward to exploit it, as PredictIt only allows US bettors and Betfair doesn't allow US accounts. The US money currently makes it about 1/2 Dems.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2018
    Sandpit said:

    They’re right, if you use chemical weapons in someone else’s country you should expect a firm reaction to it.

    They used a radioactive poison in the centre of London to murder Litvinenko, basically no reaction. Invaded Georgia, invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea, severe interference in a US presidential election ..... basically no reaction.

    With Agent Orange in the WH, pretty certain we can guess the same pattern will repeat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s Kenny Everett when you need him?

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI
  • eekeek Posts: 28,775
    This just popped up on my rss feed - For small town America think small town northern Britain

    https://www.vox.com/2018/3/13/17053886/trump-rural-america-populism-racial-resentment
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    David_Evershed said:

    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage

    I can assure you Mike that Scotland will follow suit ...
    Scotland did not reach the Group Stage Jack.
    I'll go to the foot of my grand staircase ....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    "On Betfair on Monday punters rated this as a 60-40 shot for the publicans."

    Does it need a shift of ten pints?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    People are waking up to the influence of RT.
    https://twitter.com/simonunion1/status/973599941959585793
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,341
    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/973595553983533056
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Russophobes may be interested to learn that even NZ is not immune to the hand of Putin.

    Our Deputy Leader (soon to become Acting PM) and leader of the ukippy NZ First Party made a trade deal with the Russians a condition of his coalition agreement, and is currently doing some very weird Russia-apologetics.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102193946/pm-jacinda-ardern-reassures-eu-over-winston-peters-russia-comments

    What is it about Putin that is so attractive to these people? Money, homo-erotics, or sheer power worship?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,910
    Gardenwalker said:

    Russophobes may be interested to learn that even NZ is not immune to the hand of Putin.

    Our Deputy Leader (soon to become Acting PM) and leader of the ukippy NZ First Party made a trade deal with the Russians a condition of his coalition agreement, and is currently doing some very weird Russia-apologetics.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102193946/pm-jacinda-ardern-reassures-eu-over-winston-peters-russia-comments

    What is it about Putin that is so attractive to these people? Money, homo-erotics, or sheer power worship?

    Its similar to the sort of thing that made people support Assad when he was going around killing his own people - and worse.

    They seem to like strongmen. Which shows them up when they witter on about 'democracy'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/973595553983533056

    Have they let him back into the Labour Party yet? He seems to have the same talking points as Seamus Milne.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/973595553983533056

    It is to me as well. Why, as an apologist for numerous Fascist dictators, an avowed admirer of mass murderers and notorious for being thick as five posts you would have thought he would be Leader of the Opposition.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,253
    williamglenn said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?
    Me neither.....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited March 2018
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Russophobes may be interested to learn that even NZ is not immune to the hand of Putin.

    Our Deputy Leader (soon to become Acting PM) and leader of the ukippy NZ First Party made a trade deal with the Russians a condition of his coalition agreement, and is currently doing some very weird Russia-apologetics.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102193946/pm-jacinda-ardern-reassures-eu-over-winston-peters-russia-comments

    What is it about Putin that is so attractive to these people? Money, homo-erotics, or sheer power worship?

    Its similar to the sort of thing that made people support Assad when he was going around killing his own people - and worse.

    They seem to like strongmen. Which shows them up when they witter on about 'democracy'.
    Racist, anti-Semitic, homophobic, misogynistic strongmen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    williamglenn said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?
    I remember when he was the star turn on Celebrity Big Brother.

    That's more amazing than it sounds as I never watched Big Brother, but the clips of him playing at being a cat were sort of unforgettable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Russophobes may be interested to learn that even NZ is not immune to the hand of Putin.

    Our Deputy Leader (soon to become Acting PM) and leader of the ukippy NZ First Party made a trade deal with the Russians a condition of his coalition agreement, and is currently doing some very weird Russia-apologetics.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102193946/pm-jacinda-ardern-reassures-eu-over-winston-peters-russia-comments

    What is it about Putin that is so attractive to these people? Money, homo-erotics, or sheer power worship?

    Its similar to the sort of thing that made people support Assad when he was going around killing his own people - and worse.

    They seem to like strongmen. Which shows them up when they witter on about 'democracy'.
    I actually think it’s more sinister.
    Money has been spent very carefully.

    I know it makes me sound like a McCarthy-ite loon, but it’s amazing how many of these figures (Trump, Le Pen, Banks) have financial links to Russia. Peters’s party has notoriously shadowy financing.
  • HarryHayfieldHarryHayfield Posts: 55
    Polls close at 0000 GMT (2000 EDT) (they have "sprung forward" and so there is only a four hour time difference)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    MarqueeMark said:

    williamglenn said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?
    Me neither.....
    Allow me to take you back to another era:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/02/why-george-galloway-matters-more-referendum-battle-you-think
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,341
    edited March 2018
    williamglenn said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Why Galloway is currently stumbling about in political limbo, friendless and despised, is a mystery to me.

    Remember when Galloway was the star turn for the Leave campaign?
    And Better Together.

    I'd forgotten that he was also supposed to be doing a turn for Arron Bank's Westmonster. On checking, they're currently frotting themselves into a frenzy over the Telford abuse thing. That may be an uncomfortable fit with GG's worldview.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HarryHayfield said:

    Polls close at 0000 GMT (2000 EDT) (they have "sprung forward" and so there is only a four hour time difference)

    Thanks Harry
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." - Winston Churchill

    Nothing has changed. Still wondering what May is going to do when her ultimatum expires.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    Uzbekistan ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Elliot said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.
    I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

    It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

    If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

    If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Jonathan said:

    "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." - Winston Churchill

    Nothing has changed. Still wondering what May is going to do when her ultimatum expires.

    Yes same here, surely all the bellicose language means something beyond joint diplomat expulsions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Gardenwalker said:

    It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

    That is a stunningly brilliant Freudian slip.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Just watching Trump Tillerson and Co. It's difficult imagining what they could have been going through their heads when they voted for this man. I'd sooner have Putin any day of the week with or without Novichok.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Gardenwalker said:

    Elliot said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.
    I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

    It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

    If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

    If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.
    It shows how bonkers things are that I am only moderately sure that when you say Trump you mean Putin.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Elliot said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.
    I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

    It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

    If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

    If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.
    It shows how bonkers things are that I am only moderately sure that when you say Trump you mean Putin.
    Hehe!
    I meant Putin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." - Winston Churchill

    Nothing has changed. Still wondering what May is going to do when her ultimatum expires.

    Yes same here, surely all the bellicose language means something beyond joint diplomat expulsions.
    She’s going to blow up the Kerch bridge to Crimea.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,775
    Gardenwalker said:

    Elliot said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't the "action" done by the Russians?

    The line the Russian liars diplomats seem to be taking is that if it wasn't a British false-flag operation to discredit their glorious leader, then it was probably one of the other successor states* to the USSR, who got hold of some very old Soviet nerve agents that Russia certainly doesn't have, because they destroyed all of theirs long ago.

    * They haven't actually said Ukraine yet as far as I know, but if I had to guess that is where Russia will point the finger.
    The audacity of Moscow is incredible. They deliberately choose a method to make it obvious to anyone even vaguely in the know it was them, and then try to muddy the waters with the general public, safe in the knowledge people like Trump and Corbyn will play along.
    I’m intrigued to think how they will retaliate...to our retaliation.

    It’s seems very plausible that Trump has done this both to test NATO resolve and for internal consumption before the “election”.

    If we don’t retaliate effectively, he knows he can keep pushing.

    If we do, he can respond in turn - playing the strongman to the man on the Moscow omnibus.
    Well Putin knows that he supplies the gas that Europe needs to keep warm and alive in winter so the EU isn't going to do that much.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Roger said:

    Just watching Trump Tillerson and Co. It's difficult imagining what they could have been going through their heads when they voted for this man. I'd sooner have Putin any day of the week with or without Novichok.

    Thats how it plays out with a lot of people. Putin comes across as a lot smarter than Trump.

  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nielh said:

    Roger said:

    Just watching Trump Tillerson and Co. It's difficult imagining what they could have been going through their heads when they voted for this man. I'd sooner have Putin any day of the week with or without Novichok.

    Thats how it plays out with a lot of people. Putin comes across as a lot smarter than Trump.

    With Tillerson, I think I know what I'm getting, i.e. an oil co. exec. turned Foreign Sec. He may even have been slightly more competent than our clown in the F.O. - not difficult.

    With Trump, I've no idea. We know in the UK that people from very privileged backgrounds can get an Oxbridge II(ii) even if they're as thick as two short planks. I presume the same's true there.

    With Putin, I think I know. But an ex-KGB man will be expert at deceiving and manipulating people so I may be totally wrong.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    williamglenn said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Jonathan said:

    "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." - Winston Churchill

    Nothing has changed. Still wondering what May is going to do when her ultimatum expires.

    Yes same here, surely all the bellicose language means something beyond joint diplomat expulsions.
    She’s going to blow up the Kerch bridge to Crimea.
    Regardless of whether that would be a good idea, does Britain have the capacity to do that? Would a couple of cruise missiles from one of the subs be sufficient?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    MikeSmithson said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Dissident Nikolai Glushkov was discovered by his family late on Monday night at his suburban home in New Malden.

    Police say his death is being treated as 'unexplained' and have taken the unusual step of putting counter-terrorism officers in charge of the investigation.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant has reported that the 68-year-old was found by his daughter and had 'strangulation' marks on his neck.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5495805/Russian-exile-dead-London-home.html

    Obviously just tripped and fell....nasty accident.

    Russian exiles in the U.K. do appear to be awfully accident prone.
    My plan for the World Cup. TMay to announce that England will not be participating beyond the group stage
    We could further punish the Russians by refusing to play free flowing attacking football.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,742
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm wary of opinion polls in general. I'm still warier of opinion polls of areas with non-standard demographics that historically have rarely been polled by themselves. This race looks close, and that's as much as I'd be prepared to say on the back of these polls. If you can get odds against either party, that's the way to bet.

    Saccone is 6-4, Lamb 1-2 with Ladbrokes :)
    I've just got 13-8 on Saccone with Ladbrokes. (Boosted)
This discussion has been closed.