politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories
One of the big electoral assumptions that continues to be made is that the decline of UKIP means that their votes shift almost an entirety to the Conservatives.
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The Tories are now only above 40% as they were in government from 1979-1992 as they no longer have a significant anti EU party to contend with as they did from 1997-2015 in the form of the Referendum Party and then UKIP
On the flip side, they really do a need a Lib Dem revivial that takes votes off Labour to have a chance of winning decent majorities.
In 2017 May got 42.3% of the vote but could only get largest party in a hung Parliament because the centre left vote was united behind Labour and the LDs got just 7%.
In 2010 the LDs got 57 MPs but we still had a Tory led coalition government
Was it more or fewer than the Labour gains from the Lib Dems?
I am not surprised he is facing interesting times. We seem to forget, or perhaps never really appreciated how he was elected as a result of astonishing incompetence from Les Republicains. The Republicains could have put up any of half a dozen candidates and walked the election. Instead they had a Cleggasm for Francois Fillon. When his past crawled out of the woodwork there had no way of dumping him and he didn't have the decency to resign as candidate.
Into the vacuum stepped M Marcon and now we have President Macron rather than President Juppe or even President Sarkozy term 2. Surely the Republicain electors who voted for Fillon must regret their choice even more that £3 Corbynistas in this country.
I don't know most of France at all well, but I do know Franche Comte very well indeed. In Besancon you have had PS mayors all the way back to the Liberation. The present guy was elected in 2000 - effectively appointed as the others don't come near. He has jumped ship to En Marche, and so has his council. So, a PS / Communist council now has En Marche comfortably in control, with no change of personnel. Curiously at the legislatives Besak did a Brighton and is home of France's one Green MP.
Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt Macron is a nice guy. And, unlike Trump he isn't out of his depth. But his power base does not exist, it is an ephemerum. I don't see him as either a Blair or a Thatcher, he is an accident. Alain Juppe would have been the one to have brought about Thatcherite reform or more likely the Blairite elusion of reform.
For all his majority I don't think Macron has either the power or the vision to make great reforms. How long will PS and Communists stay on board if he seriously tries to weaken the unions ? How long will the Republicains stay when their party selects an effective leader. I don't know whether Macron will get a second term, but if he is even to try he will have to avoid upsetting both left and right.
Social media has reacted with outrage after a pregnant Frenchwoman was fined €60 (£54; $74) for walking the wrong way at a Paris metro station.
I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.
Any HK tips gratefully received......
Hard product (i.e. the seat): it's probably American Airlines (seriously). Very private, every seat has isle access, and lots of space.
Soft Product (i.e. food, drink and service): lots to choose from - Singapore, Emirates, Qatar, New Zealand and Virgin
British Airways has pretty poor hard product, and average soft product (although I would add that my last flight from London to LA was among the best I've had on BA from a food and drink perspective).
Virgin's hard product is good, as is it's soft product. (And their lounges are excellent.) A solid offering.
I would put an honourable mention in for Air New Zealand, which you can do return Business Class LA-London for £3,500. The seats are the same as Virgin, and the food and drink is pretty good.
Best First Class? Singapore Airlines or Qatar. Both outstanding.
My tip would be to prepare for disappointment...
2. Go to Felix at the Peninsula.
3. Go to the Captain's Bar any weekday early evening.
The Tories gained a lot of LD seats in the Southwest from the LD collapse enabling them to get a majority but Labour gained more votes from the LDs in 2015 than the Tories did
There is much he needs to do, but these are huge changes for France.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCXcF8L0KTA
Only Fillon would have brought about Thatcherite style policies, Juppe would have been Chirac 2.
5. Go to the American Chinese restaurant in Wan Chai
6. Don't use a taxi to cross the harbour, always take the Star Ferry.
Hong Kong advise - lovely place but quite mentally busy, even by London standards at rush hours. As in London, initially get a train rather than a taxi from the airport and find an hotel as close as possible to your meeting. Everyone speaks English. Watch the light show in the harbour of an evening. HK is two cities (HK Island and the the Kowloon mainland). Best hotel is the Penninsula, which is rather like the old Savoy in London. Go to the bar there. Take the Peak Tram funicular to the top of the mountain.
General travelling on business advise - stay a day or two extra before or after if you can arrange it in any new city, there’s always things to do and see. There’s nothing worse than going somewhere, seeing an airport, a chain hotel and a conference room before running away again.
Unfortunately, with Vince Cable leading the LibDems, that looks a forlorn hope.
So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.
Hence I foresee a resurgence.
Another one is to always browse airline websites in ‘Private Browsing’ mode on your computer. Otherwise they track you and each time you come back the price goes up a little.
Edit to add. From a straight factual point of view, EU average tariffs are marginally below US ones.
I don't think there is room or time for a politician of Foot's stature any more. They all get destroyed by both the conventional and online media.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/969996509130493953
1) Compression garments
Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.
https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure
2) Airlines.
Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.
https://www.norwegian.com
Mr. 1000, indeed. The media is especially culpable.
It reminds me a little of the destruction of the virtuous circle that existed during the Golden Age of Imperial Rome. Numerous great emperors in a row had led men of talent to rise to prominence and responsibility, comfortable with not getting the top job because they knew they'd be treated fairly and not as a rival. Commodus killed quite a lot, others kept their heads down, and after that the talented were likely to be seen as a threat rather than a help (exemplified by Honorius' appalling treatment of Stilicho).
The media's losing a lot of support and trust, I think. There's ever more comment and opinion rather than straightforward reporting. This is not a positive development.
(I'd also note that while Germany exports $22bn of cars to the US, that's not actually that much in the general scheme of things.)
Of course, you have to trek to Gatwick.
Firstly, turnout for the referendum was much higher than at General Elections. Therefore, among voters in the General, it is possible that 52% voted Remain.
Secondly, your definition of "centrist" is just one person. The reality is that the centre is perhaps 12% moderate leavers and 8% moderate remainers - all of whom came to their decision only after great difficulty.
Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.
To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.
Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
As Leave won the centrist median voter has to be a Leaver, that does not mean moderate and wavering voters did not consider both sides but in the end a majority voted Leave.
Reversing Brexit certainly is not the be all and end all for voters apart from a small minority of diehard Remainers
Yes they need to look at other issues as well but delivering a clear Brexit which the Leave voting majority voted for is also vital if the Tories are to achieve a majority next time
I think you have a mental model of a single bell curve centred on a 50/50 distribution of the brexit voting population, with the euro nutters and brexit loons at the extremes and the mehs towards the middle. Things don't necessarily distribute themselves like that, and it seems likely to be the case that in a status quo vs change referendum there will be more passion on the change side that the status quo. Not sure if this board bears that out, mind; and anyway if we locate mehness in the middle, that implies a lot of centrist voters on both sides.
Look, I want a strong, positive and forward-looking Conservative Party. That is not what we've got, and I doubt we'll get it under May.
Complacency, thy name is HYUFD.
The fact Remainers would have to convince 2016 Leave voters to switch to them to win any second EU referendum only confirms that
People didn’t think Corbyn could win last time. That was one reason why large numbers of older Tory voters didn’t turn out.
Next time they will......
If anyone was complacent it is Remainers who took victory in the EU referendum as in the bag
Corbyn remains very unpopular in large parts of the country that Labour needs to make inroads into. And next time large numbers of people will be highly motivated to turn out and vote against Labour...
Suspect if it does have an effect it'll be to depress Labour turnout, mostly in areas they'll win easily anyway, rather than causing straight red to blue shifts.
He doesn’t fly his own plane because the only one he’s got is Gadaffi’s old jumbo and it’s seriously fuel inefficient. So he borrows one from his Daf’s old business partner instead... (but only when it’s cheaper than flying commercial)
Or the centre is a lot smaller than you think
It almost makes me nostalgic for the days when Tony Banks said William Hague was a foetus who should be aborted.