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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for one of the biggest local by-election nights in y

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    It's probably a good idea to remember that some of these local by-elections are in wards with very small electorates, whereas others are pretty big like the one in Doncaster which has nearly 10,000 electors. Obviously the big ones are a more reliable guide to what might be happening nationally, whereas the small ones can be very heavily influenced by personal votes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Terrible UKIP night, unsurprisingly, but beneficiaries seem to vary. Spectacular LibDem gain in Norfolk, Labour gaining votes but not seats, weak Tory results, some results hard to read as Independents come and go. No very clear picture overall so far tbh.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2018
    Q. Will tonight’s results reinforce polls view of a shift to CON?

    A. No, because these are local by-elections not nationwide general elections.

    For example only low turnouts of 20 - 30% and limited
    resources can be focussed in single wards or Divisions.
  • Foxy said:

    Canada, USA, Japan and South Korea all have higher numbers.

    The problem is the pisspoor nature of many courses and institutions not the innate stupidity of Britons.

    Canada, USA, Japan and South Korea all are outside the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    Not sure it is necessary to make it military service, but certainly given a choice between British, French and Norwegian trainees when I was working offshore I would always chose the French or Norwegians because they had done national service and had the ability to actually think and act as well as being willing to get their hands dirty. British graduates were almost entirely an utter waste of time and effort unless they had done some other manual job first.
    I worked as a dishwasher in a hotel for two years of weekends and holidays. It probably taught be more than my six weeks as an intern at an investment bank.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    And we should go back to 10% going to university again.
    Well, now you're raising the interesting question about whether - say - computer programming is best taught through a computer sciences degree or in some other way.

    I think there will be increasingly few low skill jobs available in the developed world, and we need to think creatively about the best way to deliver education, rather than assume that giving everyone three years subsidised drinking between 18 and 21 is the best way.
  • Canada, USA, Japan and South Korea all are outside the EU.
    Did you study geography at Uni?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    Dura_Ace said:

    Infuriatingly unreliable four (and occasionally six) engined maritime patrol aircraft.
    The last ones were only retired in 1991. Astonishing for what was - in effect - a WW2 era plane.

    (Of course, the B52 is only a few years younger, and that's slated to keep flying for decades.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, now you're raising the interesting question about whether - say - computer programming is best taught through a computer sciences degree or in some other way.

    I think there will be increasingly few low skill jobs available in the developed world, and we need to think creatively about the best way to deliver education, rather than assume that giving everyone three years subsidised drinking between 18 and 21 is the best way.
    Actually there are plenty of low skill jobs, in agriculture, catering and social care. It is just that Britons do not want to do them.

    It is intermediate education jobs that are disappearing.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    My experience has been exactly the opposite and I feel far more at home in North America than I do anywhere in continental Europe.
    I always find these "where do you feel most comfortable questions" a bit bollocks.

    I feel a lot more comfortable in Paris, than in the English countryside. But I feel more comfortable yet in Manhattan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    Sean_F said:

    Our sub-par universities are at rest of the world standards. Worldwide, there are lots of poor universities.

    French universities are pretty horrible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    Canada, USA, Japan and South Korea all are outside the EU.
    Currently.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Did you study geography at Uni?
    day time TV quizzes actually
  • rcs1000 said:

    I always find these "where do you feel most comfortable questions" a bit bollocks.

    I feel a lot more comfortable in Paris, than in the English countryside. But I feel more comfortable yet in Manhattan.
    Mid West USA very different to East Coast USA.
  • Foxy said:

    Canada, USA, Japan and South Korea all have higher numbers.

    The problem is the pisspoor nature of many courses and institutions not the innate stupidity of Britons.

    Those pisspoor institutions exist because we had to rebrand FE colleges and Polys as Universities to satisfy the aims of getting 50% of the youth into University. Get rid of the idiotic target and give school leavers real choice about what they do and things would be far better.

    Based on your arguments I assume you consider Germany practically a third world country because only 27% of its population have a tertiary qualification.
  • Did you study geography at Uni?
    No, I did BSc Biochemistry, then a PhD.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Actually there are plenty of low skill jobs, in agriculture, catering and social care. It is just that Britons do not want to do them.

    It is intermediate education jobs that are disappearing.

    perhaps we should start paying in booze for these jobs
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    Mid West USA very different to East Coast USA.
    The most alien place I've ever been was rural Japan. Nobody spoke English, all the signs were in Japanese, and it was pre-smartphones so you were completely reliant on a phrase book.

    It was astonishing being somewhere where you had no ability to communicate or to understand what was going on around you.

    We absolutely loved it, but boy were we glad to get to Hong Kong (Kowloon!) which felt terribly familiar after Japan.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Results so far (10 out of 14):

    Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:

    Res 37.2
    Con 31.8
    Lab 24.7
    LD 6.3


    Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:

    SNP 38.6
    Con 32.4
    Lab 24.2
    Green 3.7
    UKIP 1.0


    Halton UA, Halton Castle:

    Lab 70.3
    Ind 17.9
    Con 11.8


    North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:

    Lab 49
    Con 39
    LD 11.9



    North Norfolk DC, Worstead:

    LD: 72.7
    Con: 16.9
    Lab: 10.4



    Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:

    LD: 41.0
    Con: 40.3
    Lab: 18.7


    Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:

    LD 70.6
    Con 29.4


    Tendring DC, St Paul's:

    Con: 39.5
    Ind: 16.7
    Ind: 14.0
    Lab: 11.9
    LD: 8.3
    UKIP: 7.4
    Green: 2.1


    West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South:

    Con 62.9
    LD 23.7
    Lab 13.5


    York UA, Holgate:

    Lab 50.0
    LD 32.3
    Con 11.0
    Grn 6.7
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    edited February 2018

    Those pisspoor institutions exist because we had to rebrand FE colleges and Polys as Universities to satisfy the aims of getting 50% of the youth into University. Get rid of the idiotic target and give school leavers real choice about what they do and things would be far better.

    Based on your arguments I assume you consider Germany practically a third world country because only 27% of its population have a tertiary qualification.
    27% is nearly three times your suggested 10%. Many more Germans have excellent technical education short of tertiary study.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    AndyJS said:

    Results so far (10 out of 14):

    Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley:

    Res 37.2
    Con 31.8
    Lab 24.7
    LD 6.3


    Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert:

    SNP 38.6
    Con 32.4
    Lab 24.2
    Green 3.7
    UKIP 1.0


    Halton UA, Halton Castle:

    Lab 70.3
    Ind 17.9
    Con 11.8


    North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor:

    Lab 49
    Con 39
    LD 11.9



    North Norfolk DC, Worstead:

    LD: 72.7
    Con: 16.9
    Lab: 10.4



    Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh:

    LD: 41.0
    Con: 40.3
    Lab: 18.7


    Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East:

    LD 70.6
    Con 29.4


    Tendring DC, St Paul's:

    Con: 39.5
    Ind: 16.7
    Ind: 14.0
    Lab: 11.9
    LD: 8.3
    UKIP: 7.4
    Green: 2.1


    West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South:

    Con 62.9
    LD 23.7
    Lab 13.5


    York UA, Holgate:

    Lab 50.0
    LD 32.3
    Con 11.0
    Grn 6.7

    Plus Morecambe North
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/964287600973492224
  • Foxy said:

    27% is nearly three times your suggested 10%. Many more Germans have excellent technical education short of tertiary study.

    Which is what we should be concentrating on instead of pushing all school leavers off to University. There is nothing wrong at all with having 10% attending university if the education and training the other 90% get is correctly tailored to help both themselves and the country. The moronic target we have now of 50% - nearly twice that of Germany and 3 times that of Italy is doing no one any favours at all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Well it was us until we started wrecking it all in the 90s.

    We currently have 42% of 25-64 year olds with tertiary qualifications. France has 32%. Germany has 27%. Italy has 17%. What benefits are we as a country or the graduates themselves gaining from such high levels of tertiary qualification? It is idiotic and costs a fortune for no national benefit.
    Theodore Dalrymple writes about this quite often. He points out that producing large number of graduates without enough jobs to satisfy them is a recipe for social unrest, and that many of the revolutions in places like Central America were caused by this phenomenon, (not by working-class unrest as many assume).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826

    Which is what we should be concentrating on instead of pushing all school leavers off to University. There is nothing wrong at all with having 10% attending university if the education and training the other 90% get is correctly tailored to help both themselves and the country. The moronic target we have now of 50% - nearly twice that of Germany and 3 times that of Italy is doing no one any favours at all.
    Italy is not a great economy to copy, and Germany has a far larger manufactng and engineering sector. We are much closer to the OECD average.

    Perhaps you are right though and Britons are much thicker than other nationalities. Doesn't bode well for the future global Britain if so...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    rcs1000 said:

    The most alien place I've ever been was rural Japan. Nobody spoke English, all the signs were in Japanese, and it was pre-smartphones so you were completely reliant on a phrase book.

    It was astonishing being somewhere where you had no ability to communicate or to understand what was going on around you.

    We absolutely loved it, but boy were we glad to get to Hong Kong (Kowloon!) which felt terribly familiar after Japan.

    Very much so. Taiwan in the early 90s was similar. Utterly bizarre to be functionally illiterate. Was taught the characterst get the bus first day at work. Got the correct one but in the wrong direction. Ended in some paddy fields. Waited for it to go back. 2 hours late.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mid West USA very different to East Coast USA.
    Really? Midwest USA has Chicago, which feels a lot to me like a northern industrial place that's reinvented itself. A bit like Leeds or Manchester.

    You could say the same thing about Europe though. Stockholm or Copenhagen feel very familiar. Bucharest or Naples feels like a different world.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    Elliot said:

    Really? Midwest USA has Chicago, which feels a lot to me like a northern industrial place that's reinvented itself. A bit like Leeds or Manchester.

    You could say the same thing about Europe though. Stockholm or Copenhagen feel very familiar. Bucharest or Naples feels like a different world.
    Chicago is probably very untypical of the rest of the Mid West. I was there a few months ago although only for two nights. Funny how much you can see in a short time like that. I feel as if I know the city pretty well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    Foxy said:

    Italy is not a great economy to copy, and Germany has a far larger manufactng and engineering sector. We are much closer to the OECD average.

    Perhaps you are right though and Britons are much thicker than other nationalities. Doesn't bode well for the future global Britain if so...
    The point is not whether Brits are thicker than other nationalities - they conspicuously are not - it's that offering degrees that do not lead to better paid jobs is a curse, not a gift. Education is meant to be the ultimate ladder up for the poor, not an indulgence sandwiched between gap year and hobby job for middle-class dilletantes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236
    rcs1000 said:



    French universities are pretty horrible.

    I did my Erasmus year at Université d'Aix-Marseille I and thought it was wonderful. This may have been due to the change in climate from my normal undergraduate studies at Durham...

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    Dura_Ace said:

    ...Durham...

    Pink Panther town

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    12 opinion polls so far this year. Averages for the two main parties:

    Lab 40.83%
    Con 40.75%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Well done to Plucky Brit On A Teatray...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Germany poll:

    Infratest dimap:

    CDU/CSU 33%
    SPD 16%
    AfD 15%
    GRÜNE 13%
    LINKE 11%
    FDP 9%
    Others 3%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Well done to Plucky Brit On A Teatray...

    One's butler is a tad sniffy about this event. Apparently the lack of silver tea service on board renders the luge rather gauche ....
  • She was poached from ITV after which the BBC's viewing figures rose. Surely this is how markets are supposed to work. The question is why the BBC insisted on paying her (and other presenters) via personal service companies.
  • Didn't David Cameron look at bringing back national service prior to GE2010?

    He then copped out, and went for national citizen service instead.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    AndyJS said:

    New Germany poll:

    Infratest dimap:

    CDU/CSU 33%
    SPD 16%
    AfD 15%
    GRÜNE 13%
    LINKE 11%
    FDP 9%
    Others 3%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Quite significant, that - not INSA but an instutue normally in line with the others.
  • Charles said:
    According to Wikipedia, The court documents indicate Ackroyd's BBC contract was ended because of HMRC formal demand made against Ackroyd. Ironic if true.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christa_Ackroyd#Taxation_case
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    rcs1000 said:



    I feel a lot more comfortable in Paris, than in the English countryside. But I feel more comfortable yet in Manhattan.

    +1. It depends partly what you're doing, too. Shopping in Europe feels more familiar than the US, as the supermarkets are pretty similar to the UK. Going to a play feels more familiar in the US even if you're fluent in another language.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    The by-election yet to be declared in Doncaster is possibly the most interesting simply because it has the most voters, around 10,850 at the last election in 2017. It's a two-horse race between Labour and an Independent.

    http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/services/the-council-democracy/local-elections-2017
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    viewcode said:

    The point is not whether Brits are thicker than other nationalities - they conspicuously are not - it's that offering degrees that do not lead to better paid jobs is a curse, not a gift. Education is meant to be the ultimate ladder up for the poor, not an indulgence sandwiched between gap year and hobby job for middle-class dilletantes.
    The answer perhaps is to get our second tier universities up to scratch, rather than to stop educating Britons to the levels of our competitors.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited February 2018
    Deleted
  • Foxy said:


    The answer perhaps is to get our second tier universities up to scratch, rather than to stop educating Britons to the levels of our competitors.


    The problem is partly reputation. A side effect of massive fees is that the Dance Department at the University of Hastings can now attract world class researchers. The trouble is that HR departments do not look at the research rankings and still insist on hiring from the traditional top three -- Oxford, Cambridge and the recruiter's own alma mata. That prejudice must be broken before Britain can reach its full potential.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    No, I did BSc Biochemistry, then a PhD.
    I don't think that was the kind of question which required an answer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited February 2018
    A poll about bringing back national service ? Why not bring it back for the over 60s? They seem pretty keen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    Jonathan said:

    A poll about bringing back national service ? Why not bring it back for the over 60s? They seem pretty keen.

    I'm afraid @AlistairM beat you to that one.

  • The problem is partly reputation. A side effect of massive fees is that the Dance Department at the University of Hastings can now attract world class researchers. The trouble is that HR departments do not look at the research rankings and still insist on hiring from the traditional top three -- Oxford, Cambridge and the recruiter's own alma mata. That prejudice must be broken before Britain can reach its full potential.
    Morning all,

    In my experience of working in HE, HR gets very little say on recruitment. They organize the process, do the advert, receive the application forms, tracked down referees, provide the room for the interviews etc. But a panel of 4 or maybe more people makes decisions. HR is one person on the panel and in my experience simply provided guidance on the law, institutional rules etc and answered candidates questions about stuff like pensions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    Australia didn't have the best day of cricket they've ever played, did they? Martin Guptil seems to have forgotten his middle names are not Viv and Richards.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    ydoethur said:

    I'm afraid @AlistairM beat you to that one.
    Clearly a great idea. Seriously, why not?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    edited February 2018
    On America versus Europe. I am a big Americaphile. I have family connections in the United States and certainly could live there for a longer period. But I am European, not American. We are a European country, I believe, not just in geography, but in a shared history and culture.
  • Morning all,

    In my experience of working in HE, HR gets very little say on recruitment. They organize the process, do the advert, receive the application forms, tracked down referees, provide the room for the interviews etc. But a panel of 4 or maybe more people makes decisions. HR is one person on the panel and in my experience simply provided guidance on the law, institutional rules etc and answered candidates questions about stuff like pensions.
    Non-HR recruiters are subject to the same prejudices. Then there is the question of who applies in the first place: in the old days of the milk round, some employers would visit only the oldest universities.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    I see now why the fan boys on here have been wittering on about Raab being a contender, he seems to be a real Tory from this account, what a blot on the landscape.
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/the-tory-housing-minister-was-in-a-private-facebook-group?utm_term=.xv2yrQeR8#.gp0VgX8z1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    FF43 said:

    On America versus Europe. I am a big Americaphile. I have family connections in the United States and certainly could live there for a longer period. But I am European, not American. We are a European country, I believe, not just in geography, but in a shared history and culture.

    I had five years at High School in the USA. The common language and familiarity from TV and film masks a gulf in culture and attitudes. I am far more closer to Europeans in terms of culture too.

    Australia is better though, as it has had far more post war European migration.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    FF43 said:

    On America versus Europe. I am a big Americaphile. I have family connections in the United States and certainly could live there for a longer period. But I am European, not American. We are a European country, I believe, not just in geography, but in a shared history and culture.

    Our “problem” is we are both European and connected to the wider world far more than many other European countries are. Someone last night posted a tweet ( I think) from somebody saying the US was very foreign and universal healthcare, “real” football, and no guns, made us European. Fair enough. But there again, the common law, the English language, and cricket would pull us in the other direction.

    And I suspect it is so in many of our minds on many levels. To me aspects of the US are downright weird, but so is France. (Have to say though had I pitched up in Australia aged 20 I doubt I’d have ever left - it really does feel quite like home with sunshine!)
  • Foxy said:

    I had five years at High School in the USA. The common language and familiarity from TV and film masks a gulf in culture and attitudes. I am far more closer to Europeans in terms of culture too.

    Australia is better though, as it has had far more post war European migration.
    I vaguely recall Michael Grade talking about bringing daytime television to BBC1, and commenting about having to sit through the American soaps before being shown Neighbours, with street cricket in its opening titles. The rest is broadcasting history.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    ydoethur said:

    Australia didn't have the best day of cricket they've ever played, did they? Martin Guptil seems to have forgotten his middle names are not Viv and Richards.

    243 in 20 overs? Its not that long ago that would have been an ok 50 over score. Just incredible. It will be interesting to see how close Australia get. They are off to a good start.
  • Corbyn's anti-liberal democracy record. Thread from Rob Ford:

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/964226578250166272
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Williams unveil their 2018 car.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43079279

    First test starts in 10 days.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    welshowl said:

    Our “problem” is we are both European and connected to the wider world far more than many other European countries are. Someone last night posted a tweet ( I think) from somebody saying the US was very foreign and universal healthcare, “real” football, and no guns, made us European. Fair enough. But there again, the common law, the English language, and cricket would pull us in the other direction.

    And I suspect it is so in many of our minds on many levels. To me aspects of the US are downright weird, but so is France. (Have to say though had I pitched up in Australia aged 20 I doubt I’d have ever left - it really does feel quite like home with sunshine!)
    Good points. I am curious about an attachment to a common law in "common" with the US and other places. Several people here mention it. Most European countries have decent legal systems, as does Scotland with a legal system originating in 16th century French jurisprudence. Don't most people accept the law is what it is?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    Foxy said:

    I had five years at High School in the USA. The common language and familiarity from TV and film masks a gulf in culture and attitudes. I am far more closer to Europeans in terms of culture too.

    Australia is better though, as it has had far more post war European migration.
    Australia has America's car culture and Britain's work ethic. Recently it has become seriously multicultural. I know as many Chinese Australians as Anglo Saxon ones.
  • NEW THREAD

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Corbyn's anti-liberal democracy record. Thread from Rob Ford:

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/964226578250166272

    Young voters don't care. Corbyn can do no wrong in their eyes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    edited February 2018
    No ball hit for 6 and then 4 off the free hit. 11 off 1 legal delivery. Australia are going to do this.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Local elections especially local by elections do not reflect at all how a general election would turn out.
This discussion has been closed.