politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite
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For some reason my phone puts in random full stops. I assume it is fat finger syndrome.Nigelb said:
There's that damning full stop again, Richard.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just a shame it was all smoke and mirrors and he turned out to.be such an atrocious PM.DavidL said:
Very possibly. He was brilliant at opposition politics.Anorak said:
Tony Blair would have been on 65% by now. Not joking.DavidL said:
Its the lack of an alternative. Obviously.philiph said:
Cons best score since July.TheScreamingEagles said:Gold standard pollster speaks.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960
I'll just go into a dark room and scratch my head whilst trying to understand how the continual mess they are in is not having a massive negative on polls.
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The key thing is leverage. The more individuals have borrowed to speculate then the greater the impact onthe wider economy whe the bitcoin bubble bursts.Foxy said:
I though the nominal value of Cryptos was quite large. A lot depends when people bought in.Alistair said:
Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.IanB2 said:
The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.Foxy said:
I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.jayfdee said:
Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.geoffw said:
Looks pretty widespread.Foxy said:
Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Profit taking or something more seriousFoxy said:Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.
Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.0 -
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If the polls are irrelevant, and 13.7 million votes are irrelevant, exactly which yardstick are we using to judge the popularity of the government?Jonathan said:
Polls irrelevant. This is about having a coherent executable policy you can get through parliament. Frictionless trade outside the customs union is a fantasy today.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Commanding 40% + in the present climate indicates the public do not share your viewJonathan said:This government is a remarkable mess. Tory party seems increasingly broken and unable to govern in national interest .
Starting to think some kind of national government is going to happen.
Anyway we know you need to be twenty points ahead going into a campaign to scrape in as a minority.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/05/brexit-tory-realists-eu-jacob-rees-mogg
May looks like the head of a Soviet republic, formally occupying the highest office, yet taking ideological direction from a superior authority in the party. Or, even more bizarrely, Tory politics resembles revolution on the Iranian model, where the elected political leader is subordinate to a supreme spiritual leader, a role performed in this analogy by Rees-Mogg. For all of May’s obvious commitment to EU withdrawal, the Brexit ayatollahs don’t trust her to do it with the correct fundamentalist spirit.0 -
There has been a fair bit of venture capital money going into new crypto startups. How much of this will be seen again, if this is indeed the start of a crash? There will be individuals who have speculated beyond their ability to repay. The losses will show up in other places, and the lesson from 2008 is that ripples from one part of the financial system can rapidly spread.Alistair said:
Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.IanB2 said:
The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.Foxy said:
I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.jayfdee said:
Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.geoffw said:
Looks pretty widespread.Foxy said:
Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Profit taking or something more seriousFoxy said:Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.
Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.0 -
Remainers losing the argumentwilliamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/05/brexit-tory-realists-eu-jacob-rees-mogg
May looks like the head of a Soviet republic, formally occupying the highest office, yet taking ideological direction from a superior authority in the party. Or, even more bizarrely, Tory politics resembles revolution on the Iranian model, where the elected political leader is subordinate to a supreme spiritual leader, a role performed in this analogy by Rees-Mogg. For all of May’s obvious commitment to EU withdrawal, the Brexit ayatollahs don’t trust her to do it with the correct fundamentalist spirit.0 -
The Tory spinners clearly saw that they could drive a wedge between Tim Farron and many party members.PClipp said:
You mean he`s not going to be attacked by the Tory spin machine.....Sean_F said:
JRM is a good deal more comfortable with his beliefs than Tim Farron, and is not seeking to lead the Lib Dems.PClipp said:
That line didn`t work for Tim Farron, did it?SouthamObserver said:
JRM supports the teachings of the church on some issues.PeterC said:
JRM policy on abortion is not "medieval Papist". While he personally supports the teaching of the Church, as do millions of others, he accepts that ending abortion rights will never command a consensus and he will not seek to impose it.TGOHF said:Apart from his medieval Papist views on abortion and Brexit - can anyone name an extreme/stark JRM policy ?
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Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....Foxy said:
Easy come, easy go, I guess!
The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.IanB2 said:
More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.stodge said:
Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates
The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.
After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.
The tory client vote won't be happy, though.0 -
Bouncing a bit now, algorithmic trading.calum said:0 -
Hello Pong. Weren't you the guy who argued that £/$ would go to $1.20 when I predicted $1.40?Pong said:
Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....Foxy said:
Easy come, easy go, I guess!
The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.IanB2 said:
More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.stodge said:
Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates
The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.
After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.
The tory client vote won't be happy, though.0 -
Do you think Barnier came away from that meeting having ANY IDEA what Labour's real policy towards Brexit is?williamglenn said:0 -
I have about £200k in equities, 50% FTSE, 50% Europe, and Asia. I reckon we are due a correction, but sitting still. I have nothing too speculative.Pong said:
Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....Foxy said:
Easy come, easy go, I guess!
The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.IanB2 said:
More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.stodge said:
Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates
The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.
After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.
The tory client vote won't be happy, though.
I had a bad feeling last week when the FTSE was down each day.0 -
Whereas the PM is over promoted.AnneJGP said:
One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.williamglenn said:0 -
Chelsea poor tonight and now down to 100
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If he did he's got more idea than the voters.......MarqueeMark said:
Do you think Barnier came away from that meeting having ANY IDEA what Labour's real policy towards Brexit is?williamglenn said:0 -
I lol'ed.Jonathan said:
Michael Barnier, This is your life.williamglenn said:0 -
Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.bigjohnowls said:
Whereas the PM is over promoted.AnneJGP said:
One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.williamglenn said:0 -
Watford 1 Chelsea 00
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When the choice was May or Leadsom, hard to see why TSE gets bent out of shape by the final choice the MPs made.AnneJGP said:
Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.bigjohnowls said:
Whereas the PM is over promoted.AnneJGP said:
One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.williamglenn said:
Of course, if Cameron hadn't left the field of battle....0 -
The nominal value is high but on incredibly thin volume. 17,000,000ish bitcoins mined. Bitatamp l, a major exchange, has seen a trading volume of 43,000 bitcoins in the last 24 hours - not different bitcoins, total. And that includes trades from other crypto currencies into and out of bitcoin . The amount of real money gone in is tiny in global terms.Foxy said:
I though the nominal value of Cryptos was quite large. A lot depends when people bought in.Alistair said:
Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.IanB2 said:
The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.Foxy said:
I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.jayfdee said:
Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.geoffw said:
Looks pretty widespread.Foxy said:
Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Profit taking or something more seriousFoxy said:Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.
Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.0 -
The tech is shit. It is the worst solution to the problem.IanB2 said:
Thanks for the link.Ishmael_Z said:
I don't know if this is correct, but it is certainly lucid:Alistair said:
Crypto is tiny market with a valuation supported by pump and dump and wash trading on incredibly thin liquidity. There's no risk to institutions, just suckers.IanB2 said:
The risk from a crypto collapse isn't so much to individuals but to banks, since you can bet that one way or another a lot of the potential losses will end up sitting with them.Foxy said:
I am wondering if the Crypto bubble bursting is the trigger for the drop, as people are forced to cover their positions.jayfdee said:
Be thankful you are not in Cryptos, it is a bloodbath at the moment.geoffw said:
Looks pretty widespread.Foxy said:
Hard to know just yet, but does seem a bit ominous to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Profit taking or something more seriousFoxy said:Dow Jones heavily down again. It all looks a bit bearish to me.
Sitting tight though, as I have a pretty cautious and diversified portfolio at present.
Me, I am not in Cryptos, and will just sit out the FTSE/Dow etc.
http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/07/the-fatal-mistake-crypto-investors-are-making-now/
My 85-year old mother asked me what Bitcoin was the other day, a clear sign that awareness of the boom has spread very widely. Although I have a hazy idea I thought it best to say that I didn't understand it. But it does seem to me that the long-term value is more likely to be in the technology itself, rather than the actual currencies.
The purloin a quote: that which is good is not novel and that which is novel is not good.0 -
This is going to complicate the railway nationalisation argument:
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/960612608935120897
Oh well, I expect the twenty somethings will get what they want - nationalised railways, decades of underinvestment and strikes.....0 -
Two Chelsea defenders in the Fantasy Football team.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watford 1 Chelsea 0
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Ftse futures - 4.010
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NEW THREAD
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How was she elected. I thought she was unopposed??AnneJGP said:
Perhaps she has ended up above her level of competence, but she was elected by her fellow MPs, not promoted by a boss. I know @TSE disagrees with them on this, but the PCP presumably felt she was the best of the available candidates.bigjohnowls said:
Whereas the PM is over promoted.AnneJGP said:
One of the difficulties of the Labour party for women must be the ever-present suspicion that you're just a token woman, whatever genuine talent & value you bring to anything. Sad.williamglenn said:0 -
Hurrah, the East Coast line can go back to having free WiFi throughout again.CarlottaVance said:This is going to complicate the railway nationalisation argument:
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/960612608935120897
Oh well, I expect the twenty somethings will get what they want - nationalised railways, decades of underinvestment and strikes.....0 -
Corbyn's favourite country - Venezeulans flee and refugee camps spring up across the border0
This discussion has been closed.