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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

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  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Which EU turkey will vote for their goods to be held up entering the Uk

    We did

    Which part of "control our borders" is confusing you?
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Which EU turkey will vote for their goods to be held up entering the Uk

    We did

    Which part of "control our borders" is confusing you?
    Have the French started building more capacity to cope or are they planning to have huge tailbacks on their Motorways ?
    Until the UK starts making preparations they can assume we’re bluffing about leaving the customs union.
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    tlg86 said:



    Charles said:

    JRM's rise, and the last thread (indeed, many others), shows the main problem with Brexit.

    It is not about customs union, free movement and everything else. The UK has historically been very good at muddling through, and whatever is decided, we'd probably muddle through, albeit at some cost.

    However everything is being subsumed through the prism of Brexit. Every other question - especially good governance - is subservient.

    It's become a religious, doctrinal conflict within the Conservative party: it doesn't matter if you're as loathsome as Leadsom, or as backwards as JRM: if you're a pure, true believer, then you're okay. If the Conservative party was having this religious war in opposition then it wouldn't matter as much. But they're not. They're in government.

    And they're f'ing clueless.

    I mean, JRM. For f'sake. Can someone try to convince me of any positive qualities he possesses for leader of the party, yet alone PM?

    He’s nice, very smart, self depreciating, has principles (in spades)... and he doesn’t want the job
    Nice people do not make up evidence-free conspiracy theories about people who are unable to respond.
    Genuine question. Do you think the pre-referendum civil service forecasts were made in good faith?
    Yes. Have you any evidence that they were not?

    The long-term economic forecast looks on track, though it's early days of course.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    A father of 8 who appears rather keen to abandon some of the duties of being a father onto a paid servant?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    That’s a three way poll including a devo-max option.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Which EU turkey will vote for their goods to be held up entering the Uk

    We did

    Which part of "control our borders" is confusing you?
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Which EU turkey will vote for their goods to be held up entering the Uk

    We did

    Which part of "control our borders" is confusing you?
    Have the French started building more capacity to cope or are they planning to have huge tailbacks on their Motorways ?
    Until the UK starts making preparations they can assume we’re bluffing about leaving the customs union.
    Or bluffing about bothering to check lorries from the EU for anything other than immigrants.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    Mr. Eagles, what do you think the grid girls wore?

    http s://twitter.com/rebeccageldard/status/958774286931693568

    http s://twitter.com/Jonathan_Witt/status/959290656932823040

    Again, you miss the point. There's no reason to have grid girls. They don't serve a purpose that can't reasonably be performed in other ways. It's not a tradition that's worth hanging on to.

    So a question: why do you think they should be kept?
    The girls who do the jobs don't want to lose them. Why do you think they should?
    It's a business decision. No-one has a right to a job (especially short-term contracts such as these), and they're not needed. So again I ask, why should they be kept?
    Because they've done their job perfectly well and professionally.
    So did coal miners. I note your support for their jobs to be kept even when the business and economic reasons for those jobs to exist have disappeared.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,994

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    As I say, I`m on Hunt for next Tory leader, but if you doubt the quality of Rees-Mogg you should see his take down of socialism:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKe4X9czItI

    you think that the ability to take down socialism qualifies someone as a potential Tory leader?
    Its a necessary quality yes. The Tories are facing an Opposition that is avowedly and openly Socialist. Taking that on is a necessity.
    WRM's argument against socialism based on free will was for an Ayn Rand type of libertarianism which doesn't recognise cooperation and pooling of sovereignty for a common good.

    It was beautifully enunciated but trite.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Zinoviev lives.
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    Mr. Topping, given Labour's led by the far left and the last Conservative campaign failed utterly, it's rather an advantage.

    Mr. Stocky, cheers for posting that.
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    There are idiots (and worse) on all sides. The most unhelpful people are those which don't accept that and refuse to face it.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    tlg86 said:



    Charles said:

    JRM's rise, and the last thread (indeed, many others), shows the main problem with Brexit.

    It is not about customs union, free movement and everything else. The UK has historically been very good at muddling through, and whatever is decided, we'd probably muddle through, albeit at some cost.

    However everything is being subsumed through the prism of Brexit. Every other question - especially good governance - is subservient.

    It's become a religious, doctrinal conflict within the Conservative party: it doesn't matter if you're as loathsome as Leadsom, or as backwards as JRM: if you're a pure, true believer, then you're okay. If the Conservative party was having this religious war in opposition then it wouldn't matter as much. But they're not. They're in government.

    And they're f'ing clueless.

    I mean, JRM. For f'sake. Can someone try to convince me of any positive qualities he possesses for leader of the party, yet alone PM?

    He’s nice, very smart, self depreciating, has principles (in spades)... and he doesn’t want the job
    Nice people do not make up evidence-free conspiracy theories about people who are unable to respond.
    Genuine question. Do you think the pre-referendum civil service forecasts were made in good faith?
    Yes. Have you any evidence that they were not?

    The long-term economic forecast looks on track, though it's early days of course.
    I’ll send you a private message later.
  • Options
    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
    Uh, most certainly not my side :)
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
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    What is it they say about never believing anything until it is officially denied:

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/960545239911018498
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited February 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    That’s a three way poll including a devo-max option.
    32% for full Indy, 19% for Devo Max, 36% for the (Unionist) status quo.

    I'd love a Unionist to explain what the status quo (current, once and future) is.
  • Options
    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
    In that case the average wait isn't 7 minutes??

    Actually you could have a seven minute wait and no queue, or you could have a seven minute wait and a long queue. I'd love to see how OP is modelling that.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    It was lost in translation. David Davis actually wants a Customs Unicorn.
    https://twitter.com/SPD2212/status/960289951949746181
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2018
    Fenster said:
    If it's real, the sender needs to be put on trial. If someone's faked it, they should be called out, too.

    I'm sure the Brexit-supporting tabs will investigate anyway. The slightly odd bit is "we were born in Britain" ... it's not particularly coherent.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited February 2018

    What is it they say about never believing anything until it is officially denied:

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/960545239911018498

    Interesting question for the political anoraks. Who is the current Tory party's most right wing MP. Right wing in terms of social beliefs and neo-con level economic ones.

    I suspect the current MPs are much less right wing than they were 30 years ago, certainly socially, and much much less right wing than their average American counterparts. That guy Moore in the US, for instance, who tried to get elected the other day. Do we have anybody at his level of rightwingery in the current parliament!?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629
    edited February 2018

    Mr. Eagles, bare arms?! Bare arms! They would've been held in contempt by the mores of Elizabethan England, I tell you!

    [No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].

    Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?

    Presumably, Mr.D, they would be happy volunteers drawn from the ranks of young motorsport enthusiasts ?
    As opposed to hired hands performing the sanitised vestiges of a role now judged unacceptable by society.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
    I was thinking it might be UKIP black ops, but it is properly punctuated.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    Both are duff bets IMO
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
    In that case the average wait isn't 7 minutes??

    Actually you could have a seven minute wait and no queue, or you could have a seven minute wait and a long queue. I'd love to see how OP is modelling that.
    It was badly phrased in the initial tweet. Obviously queueing for 7 minutes in total wouldn't be a problem for anyone at all, and would probably by a huge improvement on the current state of affairs!
  • Options

    Anorak said:

    I get the feeling that the only reason people are talking about JRM as leader is because people are talking about JRM as leader. It's fluff and stuff and nonsense. If it came to pass (see - I'm doing it now!) then it would see the Tories on 25%.

    Same things said about corbyn and look what happened,he took labour over 40%.
    Jeremy Corbyn is interested in issues that affect 'ordinary' people on the street - or at least he pretends to. He even looks like a person on the street (and since his makeover, no longer a wino sleeping on the street). Many people want change, he is offering it, and he looks like 'one of us'.

    This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.

    Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
    "Get Belgium to do it."
    And the Tories now have a major problem with women voters, more of whom voted for Corbyn than May in 2017. Is an anti-abortion zealot more likely to win them back or shed another bucketload of womens' votes to Labour? The latter, I'd suggest.

    As someone else pointed out upthread, electing someone like JRM may well be the catalyst which tips the 20% or so of Tory voters who are unhappy with Brexit into voting for Corbyn.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629
    edited February 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
    I was thinking it might be UKIP black ops, but it is properly punctuated.
    No, it isn't.
    "If you attempt to take away part of someone's identity." is not a complete sentence.

    "We have watched have you stoked..." is simply illiterate.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Eagles, bare arms?! Bare arms! They would've been held in contempt by the mores of Elizabethan England, I tell you!

    [No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].

    Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?

    Presumably, Mr.D, they would be happy volunteers drawn from the ranks of young motorsport enthusiasts ?
    As opposed to hired hands performing the sanitised vestiges of a role now judged unacceptable by society.
    I imagine there's young motorsport enthusiasts who would do anything to get on the grid.

    Anything.
  • Options
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
    In that case the average wait isn't 7 minutes??

    Actually you could have a seven minute wait and no queue, or you could have a seven minute wait and a long queue. I'd love to see how OP is modelling that.
    It was badly phrased in the initial tweet. Obviously queueing for 7 minutes in total wouldn't be a problem for anyone at all, and would probably by a huge improvement on the current state of affairs!
    You would get a longer wait by funnelling what is currently all traffic through the current non-EU lines, but of course (assuming no deal to the contrary) that is a false assumption.

    You could seven minutes for each lorry to be dealt with and no queue, or fifty miles.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:
    If Zac had any sense he would have made sure the Police were involved and then waited until.they had investigated before making anything public. That has huge potential to blow up.in his face. I would have thought any reasonable person, no matter what their view on Brexit, would have alarm bells ringing about its authenticity.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
    I was thinking it might be UKIP black ops, but it is properly punctuated.
    No, it isn't.
    "If you attempt to take away part of someone's identity." is not a complete sentence.

    "We have watched have you stoked..." is simply illiterate.
    OK but a kipper would have written "There are consequence's".
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    Mr. B, the plan is for them to be either selected on merit (being young drivers in junior formulae) or lottery, though how the entry to said lottery would function is not apparent.

    What seems to be the case is that they'll be unpaid, and the role that apparently objectifies and demeans women is simultaneously wonderful when done by children.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited February 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Eagles, bare arms?! Bare arms! They would've been held in contempt by the mores of Elizabethan England, I tell you!

    [No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].

    Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?

    Presumably, Mr.D, they would be happy volunteers drawn from the ranks of young motorsport enthusiasts ?
    As opposed to hired hands performing the sanitised vestiges of a role now judged unacceptable by society.
    I imagine there's young motorsport enthusiasts who would do anything to get on the grid.

    Anything.
    Just how young is Morris Dancer? Time to see if he can still squeeze into that scout uniform.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629
    Anorak said:

    It was lost in translation. David Davis actually wants a Customs Unicorn.
    https://twitter.com/SPD2212/status/960289951949746181

    Virgin on the ridiculous...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,660
    Fenster said:

    What is it they say about never believing anything until it is officially denied:

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/960545239911018498

    Interesting question for the political anoraks. Who is the current Tory party's most right wing MP. Right wing in terms of social beliefs and neo-con level economic ones.

    I suspect the current MPs are much less right wing than they were 30 years ago, certainly socially, and much much less right wing than their average American counterparts. That guy Moore in the US, for instance, who tried to get elected the other day. Do we have anybody at his level of rightwingery in the current parliament!?
    Possibly in our DUP.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fenster said:
    Why? Cos it's 'your side'? Becuase remainers are all wonderful enlighted individuals fighting the evil Brexiteers?

    Give me a break.
    I was thinking it might be UKIP black ops, but it is properly punctuated.
    No, it isn't.
    "If you attempt to take away part of someone's identity." is not a complete sentence.

    "We have watched have you stoked..." is simply illiterate.
    OK but a kipper would have written "There are consequence's".
    "There is...", surely ?
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2018

    Mr. B, the plan is for them to be either selected on merit (being young drivers in junior formulae) or lottery, though how the entry to said lottery would function is not apparent.

    What seems to be the case is that they'll be unpaid, and the role that apparently objectifies and demeans women is simultaneously wonderful when done by children.

    There is quite the gap between employing someone purely as a sexualised object, and letting a child be part of a fantastic sporting occassion.

    To put it another way: You're trying to draw equivalence between a cheerleading squad and the kid coming out of the tunnel carrying the ball for his/her heroes.

    Why not just visit xhamster for 10 minutes before the start of the race? Hey presto! Problem solved.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Eagles, bare arms?! Bare arms! They would've been held in contempt by the mores of Elizabethan England, I tell you!

    [No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].

    Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?

    Presumably, Mr.D, they would be happy volunteers drawn from the ranks of young motorsport enthusiasts ?
    As opposed to hired hands performing the sanitised vestiges of a role now judged unacceptable by society.
    I imagine there's young motorsport enthusiasts who would do anything to get on the grid.

    Anything.
    Just how young is Morris Dancer?
    Young

    Compared to me anyway
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629

    Scott_P said:
    If Zac had any sense he would have made sure the Police were involved and then waited until.they had investigated before making anything public. That has huge potential to blow up.in his face. I would have thought any reasonable person, no matter what their view on Brexit, would have alarm bells ringing about its authenticity.
    Does that misplaced full stop make you a suspect, Richard ?
    :smile:
  • Options

    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    A father of 8 who appears rather keen to abandon some of the duties of being a father onto a paid servant?
    You could say the same of anyone who puts their child into child care each day.

    Anyway I was not endorsing JRM, just going along with the comparison Mike made. I don't want either to be PM but would choose a JRM over Corbyn any day. A man who puts his political ideology ahead of his family is a true fanatic.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Eagles, bare arms?! Bare arms! They would've been held in contempt by the mores of Elizabethan England, I tell you!

    [No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].

    Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?

    Presumably, Mr.D, they would be happy volunteers drawn from the ranks of young motorsport enthusiasts ?
    As opposed to hired hands performing the sanitised vestiges of a role now judged unacceptable by society.
    I imagine there's young motorsport enthusiasts who would do anything to get on the grid.

    Anything.
    Just how young is Morris Dancer?
    Young

    Compared to me anyway
    So we're all gridkids now ?
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited February 2018

    At the most recents grands prix I attended it was something like this

    image
    The Grammys were really confusing. On the one hand, the vast majority of females wore white to bring awareness about sexual abuse and harassment and inequality to women in the industry. There were some emotional speeches and demonstrations of solidarity. On the other hand, the female artists didn't really win a sight. Lots of rappers won for songs talking about bitches and hos, and about how they like to treat their women. Truly surreal.
  • Options
    HHemmelig said:

    Anorak said:

    I get the feeling that the only reason people are talking about JRM as leader is because people are talking about JRM as leader. It's fluff and stuff and nonsense. If it came to pass (see - I'm doing it now!) then it would see the Tories on 25%.

    Same things said about corbyn and look what happened,he took labour over 40%.
    Jeremy Corbyn is interested in issues that affect 'ordinary' people on the street - or at least he pretends to. He even looks like a person on the street (and since his makeover, no longer a wino sleeping on the street). Many people want change, he is offering it, and he looks like 'one of us'.

    This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.

    Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
    "Get Belgium to do it."
    And the Tories now have a major problem with women voters, more of whom voted for Corbyn than May in 2017. Is an anti-abortion zealot more likely to win them back or shed another bucketload of womens' votes to Labour? The latter, I'd suggest.

    As someone else pointed out upthread, electing someone like JRM may well be the catalyst which tips the 20% or so of Tory voters who are unhappy with Brexit into voting for Corbyn.
    I am not sure about JRM because I do not know his views on a wide range of subjects other than his views as supported by his Catholic faith.

    In some ways he is being dismissed just as Corbyn was but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did.

    I have no idea who will succeed TM or when so I will keep an open mind until I am able to vote and that vote will depend on the hustings, the two left to be put to us, and their performances and policies
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    HHemmelig said:

    Anorak said:

    I get the feeling that the only reason people are talking about JRM as leader is because people are talking about JRM as leader. It's fluff and stuff and nonsense. If it came to pass (see - I'm doing it now!) then it would see the Tories on 25%.

    Same things said about corbyn and look what happened,he took labour over 40%.
    Jeremy Corbyn is interested in issues that affect 'ordinary' people on the street - or at least he pretends to. He even looks like a person on the street (and since his makeover, no longer a wino sleeping on the street). Many people want change, he is offering it, and he looks like 'one of us'.

    This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.

    Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
    "Get Belgium to do it."
    And the Tories now have a major problem with women voters, more of whom voted for Corbyn than May in 2017. Is an anti-abortion zealot more likely to win them back or shed another bucketload of womens' votes to Labour? The latter, I'd suggest.

    As someone else pointed out upthread, electing someone like JRM may well be the catalyst which tips the 20% or so of Tory voters who are unhappy with Brexit into voting for Corbyn.
    I am not sure about JRM because I do not know his views on a wide range of subjects other than his views as supported by his Catholic faith.

    In some ways he is being dismissed just as Corbyn was but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did.

    I have no idea who will succeed TM or when so I will keep an open mind until I am able to vote and that vote will depend on the hustings, the two left to be put to us, and their performances and policies
    "...but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did."

    How would this happen?

    Firstly, Corbyn had a very well organised campaign group behind him - Momentum. What campaign group is there to get behind JRM? The nearest thing the right had was Farage and UKIP, and that brings us onto my second point: it is dangerous to assume that a 'cult figure' is liked by people outside the cult.
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    Is Rees Mogg really the front runner? We are truly in the end of times.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629

    HHemmelig said:

    Anorak said:

    I get the feeling that the only reason people are talking about JRM as leader is because people are talking about JRM as leader. It's fluff and stuff and nonsense. If it came to pass (see - I'm doing it now!) then it would see the Tories on 25%.

    Same things said about corbyn and look what happened,he took labour over 40%.
    Jeremy Corbyn is interested in issues that affect 'ordinary' people on the street - or at least he pretends to. He even looks like a person on the street (and since his makeover, no longer a wino sleeping on the street). Many people want change, he is offering it, and he looks like 'one of us'.

    This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.

    Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
    "Get Belgium to do it."
    And the Tories now have a major problem with women voters, more of whom voted for Corbyn than May in 2017. Is an anti-abortion zealot more likely to win them back or shed another bucketload of womens' votes to Labour? The latter, I'd suggest.

    As someone else pointed out upthread, electing someone like JRM may well be the catalyst which tips the 20% or so of Tory voters who are unhappy with Brexit into voting for Corbyn.
    I am not sure about JRM because I do not know his views on a wide range of subjects other than his views as supported by his Catholic faith.

    In some ways he is being dismissed just as Corbyn was but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did.

    I have no idea who will succeed TM or when so I will keep an open mind until I am able to vote and that vote will depend on the hustings, the two left to be put to us, and their performances and policies
    Smaller cult.
    Or as TSE might put it, the junior partner in an asymmetric arse.
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    Mr. Owls, I've aged quite a lot (bald now). Unfortunately, with my shaved head I do have the exact appearance of a white supremacist. It's the old Ed Miliband problem, only instead of awkwardness I look like my first name should Reichsfuhrer.

    Mr. Divvie, younger than my most recent blog (posted about an hour ago) makes me sound [in which I reveal that I have a sixpence jar].

    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/a-denar-delivered.html
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    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    Personally I don't form my opinion of best Prime Minister based on people's personal lives, but YMMV.
    I do when their behaviour is that extreme.
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    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    If Zac had any sense he would have made sure the Police were involved and then waited until.they had investigated before making anything public. That has huge potential to blow up.in his face. I would have thought any reasonable person, no matter what their view on Brexit, would have alarm bells ringing about its authenticity.
    Does that misplaced full stop make you a suspect, Richard ?
    :smile:
    LOL. Missed that.
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    HHemmelig said:

    Anorak said:

    I get the feeling that the only reason people are talking about JRM as leader is because people are talking about JRM as leader. It's fluff and stuff and nonsense. If it came to pass (see - I'm doing it now!) then it would see the Tories on 25%.

    Same things said about corbyn and look what happened,he took labour over 40%.
    Jeremy Corbyn is interested in issues that affect 'ordinary' people on the street - or at least he pretends to. He even looks like a person on the street (and since his makeover, no longer a wino sleeping on the street). Many people want change, he is offering it, and he looks like 'one of us'.

    This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.

    Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
    "Get Belgium to do it."
    And the Tories now have a major problem with women voters, more of whom voted for Corbyn than May in 2017. Is an anti-abortion zealot more likely to win them back or shed another bucketload of womens' votes to Labour? The latter, I'd suggest.

    As someone else pointed out upthread, electing someone like JRM may well be the catalyst which tips the 20% or so of Tory voters who are unhappy with Brexit into voting for Corbyn.
    I am not sure about JRM because I do not know his views on a wide range of subjects other than his views as supported by his Catholic faith.

    In some ways he is being dismissed just as Corbyn was but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did.

    I have no idea who will succeed TM or when so I will keep an open mind until I am able to vote and that vote will depend on the hustings, the two left to be put to us, and their performances and policies
    "...but I could see him becoming a cult figure in a similar way that Corbyn did."

    How would this happen?

    Firstly, Corbyn had a very well organised campaign group behind him - Momentum. What campaign group is there to get behind JRM? The nearest thing the right had was Farage and UKIP, and that brings us onto my second point: it is dangerous to assume that a 'cult figure' is liked by people outside the cult.
    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar
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    Mr. Anorak, grid girls were dressing pretty conservatively recently. I doubt the kids will be any more or less covered up, unless they come out in burkhas.

    I also never watch the pre-race nonsense (or the post-race stuff either). My opposition to the move is that empowering women by impoverishing them is irrational nonsense, and if a duty objectifies grown women who are paid professionals I fail to see how the identical duty performed by a child somehow becomes a wonderful thing.

    Still, some women have lost some money because their chosen work doesn't meet with the approval of the puritans.
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    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    A father of 8 who appears rather keen to abandon some of the duties of being a father onto a paid servant?
    You could say the same of anyone who puts their child into child care each day.

    Anyway I was not endorsing JRM, just going along with the comparison Mike made. I don't want either to be PM but would choose a JRM over Corbyn any day. A man who puts his political ideology ahead of his family is a true fanatic.

    Maybe Corbyn felt it was best for his child not to go to a grammar school and that if he and his wife disagreed on something so fundamental it was best for the child concerned that they did not stay together. I am no fan, but there does not seem to be any evidence whatsoever to suggest he is anything other than a very good, loving father. I am sure exactly the same can be said for Jacob Rees Mogg.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    So our 'temporary' UK-EU trade deal might last longer the EU?

    Seems more than possible.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    A father of 8 who appears rather keen to abandon some of the duties of being a father onto a paid servant?
    You could say the same of anyone who puts their child into child care each day.

    Anyway I was not endorsing JRM, just going along with the comparison Mike made. I don't want either to be PM but would choose a JRM over Corbyn any day. A man who puts his political ideology ahead of his family is a true fanatic.
    "You could say the same of anyone who puts their child into child care each day."

    No, you really could not.
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    Mr. Jessop, I saw a similar thingummyjig from Laura Kuennsberg[sp] over the fisticuffs.
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    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    The BBC news presenter really says it all
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    edited February 2018

    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    Personally I don't form my opinion of best Prime Minister based on people's personal lives, but YMMV.
    More importantly, principles are of course highly desirable for a politician (standards and ethics more so), but for a senior job some ability to actually do politics - to take on other points of view, seek consensus, make compromises - is pretty essential. Corbyn lacks in this department but JRM has nothing to offer at all.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Momentum was set up after Corbyn became Labour leader.
    JRM would have no shortage of Tory volunteers if he chose to run.
    But I don’t see how he would get leave MPs to back him instead of Boris/Gove.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
    Nope. Would give them something to do in the 45 minutes they spend hanging around waiting to get off the boat.
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    Bad news from Germany, they appear to be spelling things the American way:
    https://twitter.com/HandelsblattGE/status/960543562046885888

    Further proof of Teutonic decadence.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2018
    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    That would be the three option question then?
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder when he last caught a Ferry. 7 minutes? Wow. Wish they could match that with cars.
    7 minutes to process each lorry on arrival. A queue of 50 lorries coming from a channel ferry would take almost 6 hours to process, by which time another 3 ferries have arrived.

    See the problem?
    Nope. Would give them something to do in the 45 minutes they spend hanging around waiting to get off the boat.
    Is that only a 1 hour processing time for 50 lorries in 6 queues? That seems very quick.
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    rkrkrk said:


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Momentum was set up after Corbyn became Labour leader.
    JRM would have no shortage of Tory volunteers if he chose to run.
    But I don’t see how he would get leave MPs to back him instead of Boris/Gove.
    He is head of the EPG group of conservatives and is becoming the go to politician for Brexit.

    It will be interesting to see how his influence impacts the polls over the coming months but he has a long way to go to become PM
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    Hmm. Not really a difficult choice. A father of 8 or a man who divorced his wife and abandoned his son for political reasons.

    A father of 8 who appears rather keen to abandon some of the duties of being a father onto a paid servant?
    You could say the same of anyone who puts their child into child care each day.

    Anyway I was not endorsing JRM, just going along with the comparison Mike made. I don't want either to be PM but would choose a JRM over Corbyn any day. A man who puts his political ideology ahead of his family is a true fanatic.

    Maybe Corbyn felt it was best for his child not to go to a grammar school and that if he and his wife disagreed on something so fundamental it was best for the child concerned that they did not stay together. I am no fan, but there does not seem to be any evidence whatsoever to suggest he is anything other than a very good, loving father. I am sure exactly the same can be said for Jacob Rees Mogg.

    But the child ended up going where the mother wanted anyway. He just did it from a broken family. I genuinely fond the idea abhorrent.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    Greetings from a train just departing Frankfurt. I've come to try and find my European Identity. So far, no joy.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    That would be the three option question then?
    Yes, yes it is. With status quo being 36% and devo max 17%.

    Soooo, that's 49% in favour of radical constitutional change then compared to 36% against.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    Stocky said:

    Yes, Jeremy Hunt, I agree. Whichever Brexiteer stands, Moggster, Johnson or Gove, there will be a challenger from more moderate side.

    Rudd, Davidson or Hunt. Rudd doesn`t have the majority in her constituency to be safe, Davidson is impossible for obvious reasons.

    That leaves Hunt.

    Perhaps David Mundell would like to be the next Secretary General of NATO? There is a possible vacancy this autumn (failing that, 2019) and a British appointment would be a very useful counterweight to Brexit. Though the rumours are that we are considering putting a different David forward.
    Mundell is a useless half witted cretin, why would any sane person put that clown forward.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Greetings from a train just departing Frankfurt. I've come to try and find my European Identity. So far, no joy.

    Try looking in a beer, it may be masquerading as a German identity to blend into the environment. If it isn't in the first, it may be in the second. Keep trying and good luck.
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    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    Yes, Jeremy Hunt, I agree. Whichever Brexiteer stands, Moggster, Johnson or Gove, there will be a challenger from more moderate side.

    Rudd, Davidson or Hunt. Rudd doesn`t have the majority in her constituency to be safe, Davidson is impossible for obvious reasons.

    That leaves Hunt.

    Perhaps David Mundell would like to be the next Secretary General of NATO? There is a possible vacancy this autumn (failing that, 2019) and a British appointment would be a very useful counterweight to Brexit. Though the rumours are that we are considering putting a different David forward.
    Mundell is a useless half witted cretin, why would any sane person put that clown forward.
    Look at the first and second favourites.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Scott_P said:
    Things are getting nasty out there....
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    If you are a core SPDer, sould a declining share make you more or less likely to vote for GroKo?

    On the one hand the last thing you want is an election - but on the other you can already see that cosying up to Merkel is losing you votes.

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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. B, the plan is for them to be either selected on merit (being young drivers in junior formulae) or lottery, though how the entry to said lottery would function is not apparent.

    What seems to be the case is that they'll be unpaid, and the role that apparently objectifies and demeans women is simultaneously wonderful when done by children.

    It's the sort of thing that rather wonderful TV program from my youth, Jim'll Fix It, used to arrange. I wonder what happened to that.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Rees-Mogg's latest historical allusion is... interesting.
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/960552242855149570
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    A grand Coalition in Germany could help the SPD make the Lib Dems look good. It looks like a suicide note at the moment.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Why the fixation on Momentum? I don't hear or read about Progress or any of the centre rightist pressure groups, which in the minds of many Labour members have done more to damage the party. Momentum have something like 36 k members out of 600 k. But I can imagine many Tories with small electoral majorities beginning to fear a fully organised and financed LP campaign in their constituencies
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    You forgot to mention that Unionist support for the UK was at 36% with the rest wanting greater powers than they have now. Usual snivelling ltying Tory trick.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    philiph said:

    Greetings from a train just departing Frankfurt. I've come to try and find my European Identity. So far, no joy.

    Try looking in a beer, it may be masquerading as a German identity to blend into the environment. If it isn't in the first, it may be in the second. Keep trying and good luck.
    It’s a tough job - but I’m glad someone is doing meaningful field research
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    DavidL said:

    A grand Coalition in Germany could help the SPD make the Lib Dems look good. It looks like a suicide note at the moment.
    Not so Grand when they've only got 48% of the voters backing them.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remember "Brexit means the breakup of the Uk"

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/960518751950114816

    You forgot to mention that Unionist support for the UK was at 36% with the rest wanting greater powers than they have now. Usual snivelling ltying Tory trick.
    I really can't work out whether the questions asked in the poll were completely stupid or whether it is just the way that the Scotsman reported it that was idiotic. Probably both.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    rkrkrk said:


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Momentum was set up after Corbyn became Labour leader.
    JRM would have no shortage of Tory volunteers if he chose to run.
    But I don’t see how he would get leave MPs to back him instead of Boris/Gove.
    You are right: I thought it slightly pre-dated his leadership campaign. Thanks.

    Just see the beginning of this thread to see how he repels reasonable Conservative-leaning posters. Would he have enough supporters to overcome those losses?
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    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960
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    IanB2 said:

    Both are duff bets IMO

    As Dr Johnson famously remarked, there is little point in settling precedence between a louse and a flea.....
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    Cons best score since July.

    I'll just go into a dark room and scratch my head whilst trying to understand how the continual mess they are in is not having a massive negative on polls.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    OchEye said:


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Why the fixation on Momentum? I don't hear or read about Progress or any of the centre rightist pressure groups, which in the minds of many Labour members have done more to damage the party. Momentum have something like 36 k members out of 600 k. But I can imagine many Tories with small electoral majorities beginning to fear a fully organised and financed LP campaign in their constituencies
    You used to, when groups like Progress were in line (and perhaps had the ear of) the Labour leadership. Momentum have the ear of the Labour leadership, and are therefore very much of interest and importance.

    What was the membership of Progress like in (say) 1999 at the height of Blair's government, both in total and as a percentage of party membership? I have no idea if the Momentum phenomenon is typical or not, but I guess the latter...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    philiph said:

    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    Cons best score since July.

    I'll just go into a dark room and scratch my head whilst trying to understand how the continual mess they are in is not having a massive negative on polls.
    Its the lack of an alternative. Obviously.
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    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    The poll also looked at current EU referendum voting intention, with no significant difference to report in comparison to previous polling. When asked how they would vote if there was another EU referendum, 49% (+1) of those polled said they would vote ‘Leave’, while 51% (-1) would vote ‘Remain’.
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    CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (-3)
    SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 15% (+1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (+2)
    LINKE-LEFT: 11%
    FDP-ALDE: 10% (+1)

    Only 5 points separate the bottom 4 parties, you could say the Greens are closing faster.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    Have we passed Peak Corbyn? :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    ‪Gold standard pollster speaks. ‬

    twitter.com/Survation/status/960559918792232960

    :o:D
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:


    Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. His profile has exploded onto the media and they cannot get enough of him. He came out of the fracas with great credit and people are talking about him, some in very complimentary terms.

    I have no idea where this goes but I would expect to see polls showing him ahead of Corbyn as best PM in the coming months, though that is a low bar

    "Do you need a campaign group to become a cult figure. "

    You were comparing Corbyn and JRM: it's important to note Momentum's role in Corbyn's rise. JRM wouldn't necessarily need a campaign group, but it's hard to see how he could replicate Corbyn without it.

    As for the fracas: I was bemused to hear a news presenter on the BBC say something like it was unclear who was assaulting who!
    Momentum was set up after Corbyn became Labour leader.
    JRM would have no shortage of Tory volunteers if he chose to run.
    But I don’t see how he would get leave MPs to back him instead of Boris/Gove.
    You are right: I thought it slightly pre-dated his leadership campaign. Thanks.

    Just see the beginning of this thread to see how he repels reasonable Conservative-leaning posters. Would he have enough supporters to overcome those losses?
    Not sure - I certainly disagree with those on here who think he would walk a membership election.
    But my betting position against him is more based on:
    1) don’t think he will run
    2) don’t think he will make final 2
This discussion has been closed.