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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite
Over the weekend there has been a big change on the next prime minister betting market on Betfair. The long-standing favourite since the general election, Mr Corbyn, has now slipped to second place behind Jacob Rees-Mogg who is attracting a lot of betting support at the moment for both the CON leadership and the next occupant of Number 10.
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Not that it counts for much, but there is no way I could vote for a Conservative Party that had JRM as a leader. I could - perhaps - be persuaded to vote for Boris (I'd probably have to wash my hands afterwards), but JRM? No way.
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/960497013099032577
Everyone else seems to be perverts interested in admiring the totty.
It is not about customs union, free movement and everything else. The UK has historically been very good at muddling through, and whatever is decided, we'd probably muddle through, albeit at some cost.
However everything is being subsumed through the prism of Brexit. Every other question - especially good governance - is subservient.
It's become a religious, doctrinal conflict within the Conservative party: it doesn't matter if you're as loathsome as Leadsom, or as backwards as JRM: if you're a pure, true believer, then you're okay. If the Conservative party was having this religious war in opposition then it wouldn't matter as much. But they're not. They're in government.
And they're f'ing clueless.
I mean, JRM. For f'sake. Can someone try to convince me of any positive qualities he possesses for leader of the party, yet alone PM?
Mr. Eagles, "Grid girls are objectifying women!" "Quick, let's objectify children instead!"
As someone else on Twitter observed, there are serious questions about an indefensible pay structure, and other challenges too, grid girls/kids are not in the top five things Liberty needs to sort out. But it's easier to get headlines that way.
Ticks a box that 90% of other MPs can't tick.
Just what are you expecting them to wear?
It’ll be like the kids at the start of a test/ODI match or a premier league match.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/960503230601089024
I need to drive his price down further to trade out.
He’s said publicly he takes his instructions from a foreign power.
Rudd, Davidson or Hunt. Rudd doesn`t have the majority in her constituency to be safe, Davidson is impossible for obvious reasons.
That leaves Hunt.
(I’d make exceptions for people like Tissue Price were he to stand again)
The next prime minister will in any case be a Tory since the Tories are not going to allow Theresa May to lead them into the next general election. They will want someone else in place before 2022.
However those who believe it will be Mogg are living in a fantasy world. As pointed out many times, although Mogg is the favourite of Tory members, Tory MPs have the choice over which two candidates go to the membership, and they will never ever select Mogg as one of those two candidates. Tory PMS first second and third criteria for choosing the next PM will be "who can beat Corbyn in a general election. The answer to that is not someone who resembles a posh patrician and is so right wing he thinks rape victims should be forced into maternity wards.
Nor will Tories want to replace May until after Brexit is over. She will limp on until 2020, and then she will go.
Hopefully disaster can be avoided.
https://twitter.com/rebeccageldard/status/958774286931693568
https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Witt/status/959290656932823040
Solving this market is getting a bit Sherlock Holmes - with the unfortunate exception that few things in politics are genuinely impossible.
Tony Blair had it - even when talking about invading Iraq.
This might be very unfair, but JRM seems to have no connection with 'ordinary' people. He cannot even be arsed to change the nappies of his children.
Imagine him as PM: "There's an urgent dirty job that needs doing, and it's our responsibility!"
"Get Belgium to do it."
So a question: why do you think they should be kept?
Unless they have taken leave of their senses.
It will not be JRM, unless they really have taken leave of their senses.
But they may possibly have done so.
So who knows...
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/960509354867871744
[No, really, they would. Exposed cleavage was fine, but bare arms were seen as very revealing].
Mr. Jessop, if they serve no purpose then why have grid kids?
He has no answer on how to reconcile the requirements of the Northern Ireland peace agreement with Brexit, no answer on what WATO rules will mean for a whole range of industries in practice, no answer on how one achieves trade in the 21st century without hold ups and delays and a myriad other requirements without an FTA or a customs union.
It’s all no, to this, no to that, no to the other with him. Done with fluency, certainly, and politeness. But knowledge, expertise, practical solutions? Where is the beef?
May is in a corner because she foolishly boxed herself into a corner too early to prove herself more Brexity than the Brexiteers. That is why she has so little wriggle room. JRM would remove what little wriggle room there is.
But the main objection to him - as to all those who are busy impaling themselves on the Brexit crucifix - is that Brexit happened because a lot of people were unhappy with the status quo and wanted change but the Brexiteers think that the answer to their concerns is to implement Brexit and it will answer those concerns. But it isn’t and it won’t. JRM does not understand this. Corbyn, for all his faults, does. That is why he has spent more time talking about peoples’s concerns and coming up with some vaguely appealing answers than obsessing about Brexit. It makes him look rather more normal than most Tories these days, which is going some - given the revolting causes he has associated himself with over the years. That is the measure of how catastrophically bonkers and irresponsible the Tories are being. They make Corbyn look reasonable and safe.
When JRM has enacted his purist version of Brexit, those problems will still be there. What answers does he have?
I wonder how the Poles' polls are holding up.
She was impressed with just how reasonable and intelligent he comes across.
The comments on the BBC article are less than enthused. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42950040
- anyone - else makes a lot of sense.
The Tombstone Group would see a Leave victory as an endorsement to spread their more unpalatable/unelectable views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKe4X9czItI
Might rule him out.
On Jacob Rees-Mogg, I fundamentally disagree with him on many things but he did handle the student protest well (as indeed many other politicians would have). The notion of masked "thugs" barging into a meeting to cause trouble is as counter-productive as it can possibly be.
Far more effective to listen in silence and then get up and leave in silence or ask a particularly pointed question and then leave. Rees-Mogg has a right to be heard, no question, but he also has a right to be challenged and that is a far more effective weapon than thuggery and violence.
On an unrelated, Surrey's full Council meets tomorrow to vote through a 5.99% increase in Council Tax - one imagines the Budget meeting this year will be less theatrical than in 2017 - but the net effect for residents will still be severe. Farnham residents, facing rises from both Waverley Council and the Surrey Police Commissioner (a former County Councillor himself) will face an overall 5.5% Council tax rise.
With Northants under a Section 114 notice and a number of local authorities supposedly on the brink, there are serious questions out there to be considered. One absurdity is how funding for the NHS is supposedly ring-fenced but funding for both public health and social care which fall under local authority control, isn't or aren't. That crisis hasn't gone anyway in any form and remains a huge issue for many local councils.
So they will put barriers up to sell us stuff? Hmmmm.
As for the Irish border, how long is the current delay to check there's no booze'n'fags being smuggled across in the consignment?
Which part of "control our borders" is confusing you?
'Self-deprecating'. So am I. Can I be PM? In fact, is self-deprecation a desirable quality in a PM?
As for 'principles': it's easy to have them, but a lot harder to hold them when in a position of responsibility. Something he's been untested in.
As an example: "Josh, 10, lost his dad last year to a drink-driver. He's here on the grid as a symbol of the FIA's 3,500 lives campaign."
It adds another dimension. And great opportunities for the kids.
You keep on forgetting this is a business.