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SystemSystem Posts: 12,687
edited February 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Youthquakes and the British Election Study

On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask ‘was there really a ‘youthquake’ at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,451
    FPT:
    Elliot said:

    It will be a huge mistake to stay in the customs union. It allows easier trade in goods with the EU, where we have a big deficit, while impairing our ability to do trade with the rest of the world, where we have surpluses.

    Leaving aside discussions about the customs union, it is important to realise that a trade deficit or surplus is not the consequence of tariff rates with particular sets of countries.

    If we raise tariffs with the EU (where we typically have a trade deficit), and lower them with the Rest of the World (where we often have a surplus), then it will not lower our trade deficit.

    Why?

    Two reasons:

    Firstly, people and firms do not demand German, or French or Japanese goods. They demand (for example) a car or a widget. If you raise the price of a German widget (by adding tariffs) while reducing the cost of a Japanese one (by removing them), then all you do is shift where your trade deficit is.

    Secondly, a trade deficit is - in almost all cases - a consequence of excessive levels of domestic consumption. If you chart household savings rate on one axis, and trade deficit on the other, you will find an almost perfect correlation. The UK and the US have low savings rates, and current account deficits. Germany, Switzerland and China have high savings rates, and current account surpluses. If you spend more than you earn - as a country - then you will run a trade deficit, and no messing around with tariff rates will change that.

    The solution to our persistent current account deficit is to raise savings rates. Unfortunately, the policies of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, George Osbourne and Philip Hammond have been to suppress savings rates, by reducing incentives to defer consumption. (Compare and contrast with Geoffrey Howe - and to a lesser extent Kenneth Clarke - who implemented many measures to encourage savings. Both of those Chancellors left well balanced economies. Unlike ours.)

    Why has the policy been to suppress savings? Because a normalisation of the savings rate will cause a fall in aggregate consumption.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,718
    This image haunts me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,451
    (Following on from earlier post...)

    Why is it that governments have discouraged savings in recent years?

    A declining saving rate means less money is spent domestically, which - unless it is balanced by a corresponding rise in external demand - means the GDP is likely to fall, even if production is increasing.

    (When you buy an iPhone from China, the part of the value chain that is in the UK - the dock worker, the lorry driver, the Apple store clerk and the rent on the Regent Street shop - contributes to our UK GDP number. If you don't buy that iPhone, even though it was manufactured in China, then UK GDP will be lower.)

    The majority of recessions are the consequence of savings rates falling. After all, that is the purpose of raising interest rates to slow the economy: it is a policy to make borrowing less attractive and savings more attractive.

    We have been too scared to rebalance. (And little wonder: look at Spain 2011-2014 if you want to see what a rapid, uncontrolled rebalancing through a soaring savings rate looks.) But this means that our economy has a current account deficit and a horrendously low savings rate.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Huge blow for LAB in one of its heartlands.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/959204791758049280
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Being outside the Euro has proven to be a fools paradise for the UK in so many ways. Politically it left us semi-detached from the core of the EU, and economically it led to short-termist thinking and complacency.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited February 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    Huge blow for LAB in one of its heartlands.

    Very similar to the result in Sandhill last year. The main difference is that UKIP have now totally collapsed.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/819678751554473984
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    RobD said:

    This image haunts me.

    It was a great relief. One of my better political moments.

    More seriously, listening to the podcast, I was struck by the way the panellists disregarded the poll taken in areas with high numbers of ‘toddlers’. Surely a high number of small children indicates a high number of, mainly young, parents. Two things follow. 1. Most of those parents were in their very late teens or early twenties in 2010 and 2.The Conservative programme included quite a bit about education; clearly those parents don’t like what was done prior to 2017 and the prospects under the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,718
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    This image haunts me.

    It was a great relief. One of my better political moments.

    Might have to load up the 2015 election coverage just to soothe the pain. :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    This image haunts me.

    It was a great relief. One of my better political moments.

    Might have to load up the 2015 election coverage just to soothe the pain. :D
    That was probably my worst. Certainbly since 1970. If that's any comfort. 1959 wasn't good either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    2015 and 2017. Two exit polls I'll never forget.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Elliot said:

    It will be a huge mistake to stay in the customs union. It allows easier trade in goods with the EU, where we have a big deficit, while impairing our ability to do trade with the rest of the world, where we have surpluses.

    Leaving aside discussions about the customs union, it is important to realise that a trade deficit or surplus is not the consequence of tariff rates with particular sets of countries.

    If we raise tariffs with the EU (where we typically have a trade deficit), and lower them with the Rest of the World (where we often have a surplus), then it will not lower our trade deficit.

    Why?

    Two reasons:

    Firstly, people and firms do not demand German, or French or Japanese goods. They demand (for example) a car or a widget. If you raise the price of a German widget (by adding tariffs) while reducing the cost of a Japanese one (by removing them), then all you do is shift where your trade deficit is.

    Secondly, a trade deficit is - in almost all cases - a consequence of excessive levels of domestic consumption. If you chart household savings rate on one axis, and trade deficit on the other, you will find an almost perfect correlation. The UK and the US have low savings rates, and current account deficits. Germany, Switzerland and China have high savings rates, and current account surpluses. If you spend more than you earn - as a country - then you will run a trade deficit, and no messing around with tariff rates will change that.

    The solution to our persistent current account deficit is to raise savings rates. Unfortunately, the policies of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, George Osbourne and Philip Hammond have been to suppress savings rates, by reducing incentives to defer consumption. (Compare and contrast with Geoffrey Howe - and to a lesser extent Kenneth Clarke - who implemented many measures to encourage savings. Both of those Chancellors left well balanced economies. Unlike ours.)

    Why has the policy been to suppress savings? Because a normalisation of the savings rate will cause a fall in aggregate consumption.
    It's because they fear the economy won't grow without it, and they won't get re-elected.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    That LD result, given it stripped votes from everyone, looks highly local to me.

    If there's evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Casino_Royale said:

    That LD result, given it stripped votes from everyone, looks highly local to me.

    If there's evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it.

    Historically the area used to be Tory but like most of the town drifted left from the 70s onwards. Biggish student area now - I suspect just an anti Labour protest vote with maybe a low turnout.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I see Labour sliding back in Scotland with Tories steady and SNP up. All of Labour's potential gains gone according to Electoral Calculus. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,128
    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,451
    edited February 2018
    Casino_Royale said:

    That LD result, given it stripped votes from everyone, looks highly local to me.

    If there's evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it.

    I'll let you know in early may.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Looks like good old fashioned local campaigning on local issues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,128
    Big big rout on the crypto markets
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,128
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    Pulpstar said:

    Big big rout on the crypto markets

    BTC off 15% in last 24 hours, now trading below $8,500. The beginning of the end?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Thanks.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Always impressed at the care taken to avoid spelling mistakes on political leaflets.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    Casino_Royale said:

    2015 and 2017. Two exit polls I'll never forget.

    Ironically both exit polls had the Tories on nearly the same figure
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    Not mutually exclusive.
  • View_From_CumbriaView_From_Cumbria Posts: 241
    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Always impressed at the care taken to avoid spelling mistakes on political leaflets.

    The leaflet is almost a parody of a Lib Dem leaflet totally devoid of any individual content. It looks like the campaign, like the leaflet was a standard push from the LD by-election team. All credit to them for that. Clearly what is on offer appeals to a subset of the electorate.

    The curious thing is this formulaic drivil should be easily smashed by the two larger parties which must have the funds and the means to do so. So why don't they ?

    Getting people to turn out at minor elections is the biggest issue with democratic accountability. Ten times more important that who is or who is not allowed to vote. This really bothers me. Instinctively I don't like the Australian compulsion but what are the alternatives ?

    Certainly we should move all local main elections to one day in four or five years so we might have a prospect of a 55 or 60% turnout.

    Do we bribe them with payments off their council tax ? I assume there is no stomach for that.

    One of my electors thinks no-one should be elected without the votes of say 35% of the eligible electorate. - there would soon be no councillors if that were to be enforced I think.

    All credit to the candidates elected yesterday but what is happening in local government is no more than a charade at democracy and therefore sadly a charade at accountability.

    Having said that I doubt there is any country in Africa with more unrepresentative bodies than our National Park Authorities.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    2015 and 2017. Two exit polls I'll never forget.

    Ironically both exit polls had the Tories on nearly the same figure
    But with very different emotional responses.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,790
    Many thanks to rcs for the well-explained posts. Just one question: isn't "The majority of recessions are the consequence of savings rates falling." wrong? Shouldn't that be "rising"?

    Sunderland LibDems clearly have a winning formula, based on that result and Sandhill. Apparently they delivered almost daily leaflets, largely devoid of political content. Much the same worked in my patch in Surrey (from a Tory seat, with no LibDem candidate at all last time). It obviously works most with a low poll, as View From Cumbria says, and in Surrey and I expect in Sunderland the argument that one party was entirely dominant and needed some decent opposition was powerful. But it does show what a big local campaign can achieve.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    2015 and 2017. Two exit polls I'll never forget.

    Ironically both exit polls had the Tories on nearly the same figure
    But with very different emotional responses.
    Somewhat!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    2015 and 2017. Two exit polls I'll never forget.

    Ironically both exit polls had the Tories on nearly the same figure
    But with very different emotional responses.
    Yup. Had the 2015 exit poll been like the 2017 one we’d have been doing cartwheels.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, et al., what if the next exit poll is similar to the above? Delight? Woe?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,840
    edited February 2018
    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, et al., what if the next exit poll is similar to the above? Delight? Woe?

    Woe, TBH. Although if the figures for Con and Lab were reversed, and those for LD and SNP similarly reversed, delight. And, TBH, I think that could turn out to be a good result for the country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. B2, an inability to learn is a significant weakness in a leader. May's making the same mistakes she made in the recent past.

    King Cole, the yellows should've listened to the wise words of Morris Dancer and gone for Lamb.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,202
    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, et al., what if the next exit poll is similar to the above? Delight? Woe?

    I’ll be chuffed if the Tories are north of 300 seats.

    I’m mentally prepared for Corbyn as PM.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Local take on Pallion result:

    https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/lib-dems-claim-surprise-council-by-election-win-over-labour-in-sunderland-1-8996472
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    One for Mr Dancer - Lost in the furore about grid girls, F1 have announced that races are going to start 70 minutes later than they did this year. Something to do with TV audiences being larger later in the day or something equally silly to screw up everyone's longstanding Sunday plans.
    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2018/2/new-race-weekend-schedule-announced-for-2018.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    One for Mr Eagles and other fans of '90s music.

    I'm going to this concert tonight :D
    https://www.800tickets.com/dubai/concerts/566-live-on-the-lake-presents-remix-92
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, an inability to learn is a significant weakness in a leader. May's making the same mistakes she made in the recent past.

    King Cole, the yellows should've listened to the wise words of Morris Dancer and gone for Lamb.

    While I'm inclined to agree, I think we'll see Swinson in place before too long.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    View_From_Cumbria said:

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Always impressed at the care taken to avoid spelling mistakes on political leaflets.

    The leaflet is almost a parody of a Lib Dem leaflet totally devoid of any individual content. It looks like the campaign, like the leaflet was a standard push from the LD by-election team. All credit to them for that. Clearly what is on offer appeals to a subset of the electorate.

    The curious thing is this formulaic drivil should be easily smashed by the two larger parties which must have the funds and the means to do so. So why don't they ?

    Getting people to turn out at minor elections is the biggest issue with democratic accountability. Ten times more important that who is or who is not allowed to vote. This really bothers me. Instinctively I don't like the Australian compulsion but what are the alternatives ?

    Certainly we should move all local main elections to one day in four or five years so we might have a prospect of a 55 or 60% turnout.

    Do we bribe them with payments off their council tax ? I assume there is no stomach for that.

    One of my electors thinks no-one should be elected without the votes of say 35% of the eligible electorate. - there would soon be no councillors if that were to be enforced I think.

    All credit to the candidates elected yesterday but what is happening in local government is no more than a charade at democracy and therefore sadly a charade at accountability.

    Having said that I doubt there is any country in Africa with more unrepresentative bodies than our National Park Authorities.
    I disagree. The leaflet makes very specific promises that presumably appeal to that set of voters: bring back the bus service to the housing estate, resurface particular roads and clean up graffiti and litter in the area. I have no idea whether the candidate will deliver on his promises, but he is committed to tackle problems that clearly exercise voters in those parts. Surely that's what democracy is about?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,977
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big big rout on the crypto markets

    BTC off 15% in last 24 hours, now trading below $8,500. The beginning of the end?
    Probably, until the next halvening kicks off another bull run.

    Although by then a flippening (e.g. Ethereum becoming more popular, valuable) could also happen. Btc looks like a dinosaur compared to some of the newer tech out there. Could end up being Myspace to Eth's (or another coin's) Facebook.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    Sandpit said:

    One for Mr Eagles and other fans of '90s music.

    I'm going to this concert tonight :D
    https://www.800tickets.com/dubai/concerts/566-live-on-the-lake-presents-remix-92

    2Unlimited live are awesome.

    You’re in for a fabulous evening with those bands.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    edited February 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    One for Mr Eagles and other fans of '90s music.

    I'm going to this concert tonight :D
    https://www.800tickets.com/dubai/concerts/566-live-on-the-lake-presents-remix-92

    2Unlimited live are awesome.

    You’re in for a fabulous evening with those bands.
    I'm off to Get Ready, there's No Limit to how much fun it's going to be!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    edited February 2018
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    When did McBride issue a prompt apology the smeared accepted?
    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/959227488026193921?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,202
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    When did McBride issue a prompt apology the smeared accepted?
    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/959227488026193921?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
    Baker did his vile misdeed at the despatch box, I hold ministers of the crown to a higher standard than SPADS.

    Baker only apologised when evidence was produced to show his pants were on fire.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    When did McBride issue a prompt apology the smeared accepted?
    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/959227488026193921?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
    Baker did his vile misdeed at the despatch box, I hold ministers of the crown to a higher standard than SPADS.

    Baker only apologised when evidence was produced to show his pants were on fire.
    In all the hysteria and moral outrage (most of which should be directed at JRM) what's being overlooked is that Charles Grant has said what it was claimed he said, just not at the time he was alleged to have said it - as his own tweet makes clear.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    FF43 said:

    View_From_Cumbria said:

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Always impressed at the care taken to avoid spelling mistakes on political leaflets.

    The leaflet is almost a parody of a Lib Dem leaflet totally devoid of any individual content. It looks like the campaign, like the leaflet was a standard push from the LD by-election team. All credit to them for that. Clearly what is on offer appeals to a subset of the electorate.

    The curious thing is this formulaic drivil should be easily smashed by the two larger parties which must have the funds and the means to do so. So why don't they ?

    Getting people to turn out at minor elections is the biggest issue with democratic accountability. Ten times more important that who is or who is not allowed to vote. This really bothers me. Instinctively I don't like the Australian compulsion but what are the alternatives ?

    Certainly we should move all local main elections to one day in four or five years so we might have a prospect of a 55 or 60% turnout.

    Do we bribe them with payments off their council tax ? I assume there is no stomach for that.

    One of my electors thinks no-one should be elected without the votes of say 35% of the eligible electorate. - there would soon be no councillors if that were to be enforced I think.

    All credit to the candidates elected yesterday but what is happening in local government is no more than a charade at democracy and therefore sadly a charade at accountability.

    Having said that I doubt there is any country in Africa with more unrepresentative bodies than our National Park Authorities.
    I disagree. The leaflet makes very specific promises that presumably appeal to that set of voters: bring back the bus service to the housing estate, resurface particular roads and clean up graffiti and litter in the area. I have no idea whether the candidate will deliver on his promises, but he is committed to tackle problems that clearly exercise voters in those parts. Surely that's what democracy is about?
    The new councillor looks quite young. Brexit and Corbynmania are bringing a new generation of activists and the next generation of politicians into the Lib Dems and Labour, just as the Independence vote has already done for the SNP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,544
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, et al., what if the next exit poll is similar to the above? Delight? Woe?

    I’ll be chuffed if the Tories are north of 300 seats.

    I’m mentally prepared for Corbyn as PM.
    I don't know how things will be in the future. If there were an election now, I expect it would produce a similar outcome to last June.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,202
    edited February 2018
    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big big rout on the crypto markets

    BTC off 15% in last 24 hours, now trading below $8,500. The beginning of the end?
    Probably, until the next halvening kicks off another bull run.

    Although by then a flippening (e.g. Ethereum becoming more popular, valuable) could also happen. Btc looks like a dinosaur compared to some of the newer tech out there. Could end up being Myspace to Eth's (or another coin's) Facebook.
    I note too that the main UK indicies are on the slide since early Jan. Storm clouds gathering methinks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FF43 said:

    View_From_Cumbria said:

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Politics home predicted a Lib Dem gain so their reasons are likely to be correct

    Do you have a link to that analysis?
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/opinion/politicshome/92534/new-election-breakdown-01022018
    Always impressed at the care taken to avoid spelling mistakes on political leaflets.

    The leaflet is almost a parody of a Lib Dem leaflet totally devoid of any individual content. It looks like the campaign, like the leaflet was a standard push from the LD by-election team. All credit to them for that. Clearly what is on offer appeals to a subset of the electorate.

    The curious thing is this formulaic drivil should be easily smashed by the two larger parties which must have the funds and the means to do so. So why don't they ?

    Getting people to turn out at minor elections is the biggest issue with democratic accountability. Ten times more important that who is or who is not allowed to vote. This really bothers me. Instinctively I don't like the Australian compulsion but what are the alternatives ?

    Certainly we should move all local main elections to one day in four or five years so we might have a prospect of a 55 or 60% turnout.

    Do we bribe them with payments off their council tax ? I assume there is no stomach for that.

    One of my electors thinks no-one should be elected without the votes of say 35% of the eligible electorate. - there would soon be no councillors if that were to be enforced I think.

    All credit to the candidates elected yesterday but what is happening in local government is no more than a charade at democracy and therefore sadly a charade at accountability.

    Having said that I doubt there is any country in Africa with more unrepresentative bodies than our National Park Authorities.
    I have no idea whether the candidate will deliver on his promises
    I doubt the Labour Majority on Sunderland Council (74 out of 77 seats) will make his life easy....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    CarlottaVance said:

    Local take on Pallion result:

    https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/lib-dems-claim-surprise-council-by-election-win-over-labour-in-sunderland-1-8996472

    Sunderland Council are awful. This isn't about Brexit, it's about Labour running a North Korean style regime.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.

    May is paying the price for terrible decisions she made when she had the opportunity to lead and build a Brexit that could have got wide support. Triggering article 50 when she did, creating those absurd red lines and then calling and throwing away the general election have not only irredeemably weakened her, they have also weakened the UK internationally to a significant degree, most of all vis a vis Brexit. But if she were to go now, it is almost certain someone even more damaging would take over. It's a complete mess.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    Even Columbus THOUGHT he knew where he was going. And Canarian fisherman had seen evidence of land to the West. Not sure about Leif Erikson though; think he just worked his way along the pack ice to see where he got to!
    And that didn't work out well!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Sandpit, I'd heard something about that, but thought it was just 10 past the hour rather than on the hour.

    Now I come to think of it, I recall Brazil and the European races being put an hour further back. I think.

    One of these days, Liberty will get something right instead of just mindlessly tinkering.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Yeah - but its a stick to beat May with........
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,202
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    I don't think she is supported by the country. Neither last June's election or favourability scores since then suggest support. Not much support for anyone else of course either.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The Brexit problem is that there are no good outcomes. There is a choice between several poor outcomes. Brexit has to be an exercise in damage limitation. Mrs May isn't facing up to those choices, nor is she limiting the damage as much she should. But there is a possibility of making things worse , and a high possibility if those 48 letters go to Graham Brady and Johnson takes over.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    I don't think she is supported by the country. Neither last June's election or favourability scores since then suggest support. Not much support for anyone else of course either.
    She is generally supported by the public as being the right person at this time and of course as you say there is absolutely no one else
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,266
    Are people really getting excited about LibDem prospects because of a council byelection in winter ?

    Do they ever learn.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Unicorn sighted on the port bow!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,977
    Freggles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Local take on Pallion result:

    https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/lib-dems-claim-surprise-council-by-election-win-over-labour-in-sunderland-1-8996472

    Sunderland Council are awful. This isn't about Brexit, it's about Labour running a North Korean style regime.
    Something I never thought I’d say, but I think there’s a case to be made for reforming local elections. Having 95% or more of the Council from the same party (any party) encourages bad practices and leaves large amounts of the electorate unrepresented.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    OldKingCole said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Unicorn sighted on the port bow!
    With A Squadron, Porcine Wing as escort.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,266
    Here's the next lot of 'child refugees':

    ' At least five migrants have been shot in the French port city of Calais, after a mass brawl between Afghans and Eritreans.

    Four Eritrean youths aged 16-18 are in a critical condition and have been rushed to a local hospital for surgery, AFP news agency reports.

    A fifth man was taken to nearby Lille due to the severity of his injuries.

    At least 13 more people were wounded due to "blows from iron bars", the local prosecutor's office said.

    French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb visited Calais overnight and said the clashes had been exceptionally serious. One of the most seriously wounded was said to have been hit by a bullet in the back of the neck.

    "There's been an escalation of violence that has become unbearable for both the people of Calais and the migrants," the minister said.

    The initial fight, which lasted almost two hours, broke out on the city's southern outskirts where migrants had been queuing for food handouts. Around 100 Eritreans and some 30 Afghans were caught up in the violence.

    It started when an Afghan fired shots, AFP said.

    A second melee then erupted at an industrial site around 5km (three miles) away.

    "Police intervened to protect the Afghan migrants faced with 150 to 200 Eritrean migrants," the local prefecture said. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42912670
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Good piece by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian, advocating the Norway option, with a review in 10 years.
    Suggests May asks Labour to support her on that. Might well get a Commons majority.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    Stupid questions and idiotic answers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
    To be honest, I think the civil servants did that themselves before the referendum.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Perfectly possible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,808
    edited February 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    She also vehemently said she wouldn’t call an early election.

    How’d that turn out ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,840
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Your view - does not make it impossible. Since Norway is there already, it very clearly is possible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Perfectly possible.
    In your dreams maybe but not in real life
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,205
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Which of those would you vote for?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    Stupid questions and idiotic answers.
    Why - just because you don't like them - 17 million plus will
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/959344221458190336
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
    Blaming the civil service is a good indicator of an ineffective Minister.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
    McDonnell needs no excuse to smear - remind me what he said about Esther
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    Does Brexit mean Brexit? - Yes

    Will there be jelly, always, for tea? - Yes

    Is Santa Claus real? - Yes

    Can pigs fly? - Yes

    Am I a robot? - Yes
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Your view - does not make it impossible. Since Norway is there already, it very clearly is possible.
    If it's Norway we may as well stay in
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    Stupid questions and idiotic answers.
    Why - just because you don't like them - 17 million plus will
    I don't have time to explain the basic principles of politics to you.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Your view - does not make it impossible. Since Norway is there already, it very clearly is possible.
    If it's Norway we may as well stay in
    Indeed, but the shadow of being OUT would mask the substance for enough people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,265
    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    Stupid questions and idiotic answers.
    Why - just because you don't like them - 17 million plus will
    I don't have time to explain the basic principles of politics to you.
    You don't need to
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Which of those would you vote for?
    I would need to think about it very carefully.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Ah... if....added soothsaying among your other talents.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Theresa's interview on Sky just now was quite unequivocal when she asked her own questions and answered them

    Are we going to leave the EU - Yes

    Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes

    Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes

    Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes

    So no obfuscation there and it is on record

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/02/china-commends-visiting-theresa-may-for-sidestepping-human-rights China commends May for sidestepping human rights.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
    To add - David Davis is reported in the guardian as muttering to Baker before he replied that he should deny it as it isn’t true. So he comes out of this strange episode as honest.

    Corbyn and McDonnell will doubtless get frustrated with the civil service - but ultimately they like public sector workers...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    logical_song said:

    Government Minister disciplined for wanting decisions made "in country's best interest".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting

    A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".

    Or to be more accurate, a Government minister has been disciplined for being critical of government policy. As you would expect.
    So why isn’t Mrs May disciplining Steve Baker?

    He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
    He has accepted he was wrong and apologised.
    Only when it was shown that he was a liar.

    If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
    Was he unaware that there was a recording? All seems bizarre to me...
    Yup.

    He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
    hmmm - 'impugnity' lol
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,706
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TOPPING said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's R4 interview - robotic repetition of some sound bites she has learned. Even Mercer says "like everyone else I would like to see some vision on it" and accepts she didn't answer any fundamental questions.

    The fundamental problem for the government Brexit policy is lack of agreement over objectives around the cabinet. It is shambolic and chaotic. Fortunately the EU27 is well prepared, so it will work, albeit we will have to sign up to their deal. The idea that we would be dictating terms always was delusional.
    There's no agreement around the country.

    And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
    I would agree. We have set sail on unchartered waters and no one can agree on the destination.

    And that is the very reason I think TM is generally supported by the Country, as opposed to the media and bubble, because she is attempting to chart a course through the impossible and it is recognised as such
    The country would benefit from a GE now with:

    A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
    Not going to happen and certainly not a JRM led conservative party. And leaving the EU and staying in the SM/CU is not possible - we may as well remain as full members
    Your view - does not make it impossible. Since Norway is there already, it very clearly is possible.
    If it's Norway we may as well stay in
    Apart from the fact that Norway's in Schengen and we're not.
This discussion has been closed.

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