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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Youthquakes and the British
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Youthquakes and the British Election Study
On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask ‘was there really a ‘youthquake’ at the 2017 General Election and does it matter?
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If we raise tariffs with the EU (where we typically have a trade deficit), and lower them with the Rest of the World (where we often have a surplus), then it will not lower our trade deficit.
Why?
Two reasons:
Firstly, people and firms do not demand German, or French or Japanese goods. They demand (for example) a car or a widget. If you raise the price of a German widget (by adding tariffs) while reducing the cost of a Japanese one (by removing them), then all you do is shift where your trade deficit is.
Secondly, a trade deficit is - in almost all cases - a consequence of excessive levels of domestic consumption. If you chart household savings rate on one axis, and trade deficit on the other, you will find an almost perfect correlation. The UK and the US have low savings rates, and current account deficits. Germany, Switzerland and China have high savings rates, and current account surpluses. If you spend more than you earn - as a country - then you will run a trade deficit, and no messing around with tariff rates will change that.
The solution to our persistent current account deficit is to raise savings rates. Unfortunately, the policies of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, George Osbourne and Philip Hammond have been to suppress savings rates, by reducing incentives to defer consumption. (Compare and contrast with Geoffrey Howe - and to a lesser extent Kenneth Clarke - who implemented many measures to encourage savings. Both of those Chancellors left well balanced economies. Unlike ours.)
Why has the policy been to suppress savings? Because a normalisation of the savings rate will cause a fall in aggregate consumption.
Why is it that governments have discouraged savings in recent years?
A declining saving rate means less money is spent domestically, which - unless it is balanced by a corresponding rise in external demand - means the GDP is likely to fall, even if production is increasing.
(When you buy an iPhone from China, the part of the value chain that is in the UK - the dock worker, the lorry driver, the Apple store clerk and the rent on the Regent Street shop - contributes to our UK GDP number. If you don't buy that iPhone, even though it was manufactured in China, then UK GDP will be lower.)
The majority of recessions are the consequence of savings rates falling. After all, that is the purpose of raising interest rates to slow the economy: it is a policy to make borrowing less attractive and savings more attractive.
We have been too scared to rebalance. (And little wonder: look at Spain 2011-2014 if you want to see what a rapid, uncontrolled rebalancing through a soaring savings rate looks.) But this means that our economy has a current account deficit and a horrendously low savings rate.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/959204791758049280
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/819678751554473984
More seriously, listening to the podcast, I was struck by the way the panellists disregarded the poll taken in areas with high numbers of ‘toddlers’. Surely a high number of small children indicates a high number of, mainly young, parents. Two things follow. 1. Most of those parents were in their very late teens or early twenties in 2010 and 2.The Conservative programme included quite a bit about education; clearly those parents don’t like what was done prior to 2017 and the prospects under the Tories.
If there's evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/92496/conservative-minister-hauled-chief-whip-suggesting
A government minister has been disciplined after he suggested that the Government should reconsider going ahead with Brexit if the evidence suggests it is not in "our country's best interests".
The curious thing is this formulaic drivil should be easily smashed by the two larger parties which must have the funds and the means to do so. So why don't they ?
Getting people to turn out at minor elections is the biggest issue with democratic accountability. Ten times more important that who is or who is not allowed to vote. This really bothers me. Instinctively I don't like the Australian compulsion but what are the alternatives ?
Certainly we should move all local main elections to one day in four or five years so we might have a prospect of a 55 or 60% turnout.
Do we bribe them with payments off their council tax ? I assume there is no stomach for that.
One of my electors thinks no-one should be elected without the votes of say 35% of the eligible electorate. - there would soon be no councillors if that were to be enforced I think.
All credit to the candidates elected yesterday but what is happening in local government is no more than a charade at democracy and therefore sadly a charade at accountability.
Having said that I doubt there is any country in Africa with more unrepresentative bodies than our National Park Authorities.
Sunderland LibDems clearly have a winning formula, based on that result and Sandhill. Apparently they delivered almost daily leaflets, largely devoid of political content. Much the same worked in my patch in Surrey (from a Tory seat, with no LibDem candidate at all last time). It obviously works most with a low poll, as View From Cumbria says, and in Surrey and I expect in Sunderland the argument that one party was entirely dominant and needed some decent opposition was powerful. But it does show what a big local campaign can achieve.
Mr. Eagles, et al., what if the next exit poll is similar to the above? Delight? Woe?
King Cole, the yellows should've listened to the wise words of Morris Dancer and gone for Lamb.
I’m mentally prepared for Corbyn as PM.
https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/lib-dems-claim-surprise-council-by-election-win-over-labour-in-sunderland-1-8996472
He’s a proven liar and smearer, Damian McBride would be proud of him.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2018/2/new-race-weekend-schedule-announced-for-2018.html
I'm going to this concert tonight
https://www.800tickets.com/dubai/concerts/566-live-on-the-lake-presents-remix-92
Although by then a flippening (e.g. Ethereum becoming more popular, valuable) could also happen. Btc looks like a dinosaur compared to some of the newer tech out there. Could end up being Myspace to Eth's (or another coin's) Facebook.
You’re in for a fabulous evening with those bands.
And because it's cross-party there is no killer attack line by anyone.
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/959227488026193921?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1
Baker only apologised when evidence was produced to show his pants were on fire.
And that didn't work out well!
Now I come to think of it, I recall Brazil and the European races being put an hour further back. I think.
One of these days, Liberty will get something right instead of just mindlessly tinkering.
If that recording hadn’t emerged he’d have happily kept on lying.
A JRM-led Cons advocating a hard as nails Brexit vs a non-Corbyn-led Lab advocating leaving the EU but staying in the SM/CU
Do they ever learn.
Are we going to leave the EU - Yes
Are we going to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws - Yes
Are we going to ensure we can do trade deals around the rest of World - Yes
Are we going to ensure there will be more jobs for people in the UK - Yes
So no obfuscation there and it is on record
' At least five migrants have been shot in the French port city of Calais, after a mass brawl between Afghans and Eritreans.
Four Eritrean youths aged 16-18 are in a critical condition and have been rushed to a local hospital for surgery, AFP news agency reports.
A fifth man was taken to nearby Lille due to the severity of his injuries.
At least 13 more people were wounded due to "blows from iron bars", the local prosecutor's office said.
French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb visited Calais overnight and said the clashes had been exceptionally serious. One of the most seriously wounded was said to have been hit by a bullet in the back of the neck.
"There's been an escalation of violence that has become unbearable for both the people of Calais and the migrants," the minister said.
The initial fight, which lasted almost two hours, broke out on the city's southern outskirts where migrants had been queuing for food handouts. Around 100 Eritreans and some 30 Afghans were caught up in the violence.
It started when an Afghan fired shots, AFP said.
A second melee then erupted at an industrial site around 5km (three miles) away.
"Police intervened to protect the Afghan migrants faced with 150 to 200 Eritrean migrants," the local prefecture said. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42912670
He’s created the precedent for Corbyn and McDonnell to lie and smear the civil service with impugnity if they ever get into power.
Suggests May asks Labour to support her on that. Might well get a Commons majority.
How’d that turn out ?
Will there be jelly, always, for tea? - Yes
Is Santa Claus real? - Yes
Can pigs fly? - Yes
Am I a robot? - Yes
Corbyn and McDonnell will doubtless get frustrated with the civil service - but ultimately they like public sector workers...