politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Making Amber Rudd Tory Leader & Prime Minister might be the on

First. Still fail to see the record of achievement of Ms Rudd. Last Remainer standing, is not much of a recommendation. Failing to say anything to offend may be one.
Is that enough?
And that is without her previous business career.

justin124 said:

There was NOT a swing to the Tories at Bexley in 1966 - his majority was effectively halved from 4500 in 1964 to just 2300 - a swing to Labour of circa 2.25%.

Oops. I’ll fix that now.

Bloody comment swallowing threads.

Recidivist said:

justin124 said:

TSE
The figures shown for Heath at Bexley in 1966 are wrong! His majority in the 1966 election was halved to circa 2300 compared with circa 4500 in 1964. There was a swing to Labour there of over 2%.

Wasn't that rather famously due to the Communist candidate standing down?

There was a fourth candidate in 1964 but he was (a) not a Communist (or at least not officially) and (b) only polled 2.3% of the vote, hardly explaining a five-point rise for Labour in 1966. However, Heath's vote rose as well - it was the Liberal vote that was seriously squeezed.

The Sun are reporting that Brexiteers in the cabinet want to scrap the working time directive. And the Tories want to win over the 35-45 age group, apparently....

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

Wish somebody would pay me overtime.

This last week I have worked 89 hours.

If that were paid at 150% of salary, I would be able to retire in about three years.

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/942401087293751297

Given that individual workers can opt out (as I understand it), why are they pushing for this?

So that those who don't wish to opt out can be required to? Just a guess.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Negotiations should be quick then, if they aren’t going to negotiate anything....

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Negotiations should be quick then, if they aren’t going to negotiate anything....

We're negotiating what we're going to negotiate.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Negotiations should be quick then, if they aren’t going to negotiate anything....

If it is a choice between Canada and Norway, the negotiations with the EU will be quick, but the negotiations within the Tory party will be agonisingly long.

https://twitter.com/IrishTimesPol/status/942399498709372928

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

It’s always been pretty obvious that Tory Brexiteers see Brexit as an opportunity to remove rights from employees. This story merely confirms it.

Can't believe nobody mentioned that during the campaign

Oh, wait...

Perhaps it should have been on a bus?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/942401087293751297

Given that individual workers can opt out (as I understand it), why are they pushing for this?

It’s always been pretty obvious that Tory Brexiteers see Brexit as an opportunity to remove rights from employees. This story merely confirms it.

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/942401087293751297

Given that individual workers can opt out (as I understand it), why are they pushing for this?

It’s always been pretty obvious that Tory Brexiteers see Brexit as an opportunity to remove rights from employees. This story merely confirms it.

Good point. I think that this one has floated to the surface first is simply that it is an answer to the 'who will do the jobs the immigrants are doing?'. The existing workers will have to work longer hours to fill the gap. Anyone expecting that new jobs will be created for British workers will be disappointed.

Recidivist said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/942401087293751297

Given that individual workers can opt out (as I understand it), why are they pushing for this?

It’s always been pretty obvious that Tory Brexiteers see Brexit as an opportunity to remove rights from employees. This story merely confirms it.

Good point. I think that this one has floated to the surface first is simply that it is an answer to the 'who will do the jobs the immigrants are doing?'. The existing workers will have to work longer hours to fill the gap. Anyone expecting that new jobs will be created for British workers will be disappointed.

How do we get the natives to work for these pitiful wages when they weren't prepared to previously? That's the challenge. A huge hike in the minimum wage is the only solution I can think of. But the Tory Right would be appalled.

Being PM does not guarantee you will hold your seat, as John Howard found out in 2007 in Australia.

However I do agree a Rudd v Davis, an aligner v a diverger, is the most likely choice Tory MPs will put before the Tory membership when May finally steps down before the next general election.

The French sailor François Gabart has broken the record for sailing solo around the world, circumnavigating the planet in 42 days and 16 hours.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/french-sailor-francois-gabart-fastest-solo-circumnavigation

And I bet he didn't even bring a fridge magnet back from his trip....

williamglenn said:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/13/theresa-may-just-negotiated-away-the-united-kingdom/

Theresa May Just Negotiated Away the United Kingdom

No, in fact the deal ensures no hard Brexit

HYUFD said:

Being PM does not guarantee you will hold your seat, as John Howard found out in 2007 in Australia.

However I do agree a Rudd v Davis, an aligner v a diverger, is the most likely choice Tory MPs will put before the Tory membership when May finally steps down before the next general election.

I thought Johnson was a certainty. Or was it Mogg? It’s hard to keep up with certain uncertainty. It is it uncertain certainty?

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Wrong. Canada is the most popular choice of voters for the UK post Brexit with 50% supportive and 24% opposed, the Norway option is opposed by 38% to 35% and hard Brexit opposed by 44% to 32%.

The FTA that ends free movement that Canada offers is the only option that respects the vote and gets a trade deal with the EU too.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

One day you'll understand why Canada deal will be a disaster for the financial services industry, you know the largest contributor to the Exchequer.

I'll give you a clue, the Leaver in Stoke will be pissed as hell when the government cancels his tax credits because the Treasury doesn't have the funds to pay them.

dixiedean said:

W.r.t. the Sun story. Does anyone know what % of UK employees are paid hourly/salary. How many of them would get time and a half, and benefit from "the overtime bonanza?" Cheers in advance. Tried to Google but could only get US figures.

In my last job the overtime rate was time and a quarter for the first 5 hours and time and a third above that. It was never hugely tempting really.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Wrong. Canada is the most popular choice of voters for the UK post Brexit with 50% supportive and 24% opposed, the Norway option is opposed by 38% to 35% and hard Brexit opposed by 44% to 32%.

The FTA that ends free movement that Canada offers is the only option that respects the vote and gets a trade deal with the EU too.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

One day you'll understand why Canada deal will be a disaster for the financial services industry, you know the largest contributor to the Exchequer.

I'll give you a clue, the Leaver in Stoke will be pissed as hell when the government cancels his tax credits because the Treasury doesn't have the funds to pay them.

I'm amazed that the EU were able to negotiate a deal with Canada that didn't look like any of their previous deals. I wonder if they'll discover that ability again?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Wrong. Canada is the most popular choice of voters for the UK post Brexit with 50% supportive and 24% opposed, the Norway option is opposed by 38% to 35% and hard Brexit opposed by 44% to 32%.

The FTA that ends free movement that Canada offers is the only option that respects the vote and gets a trade deal with the EU too.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

One day you'll understand why Canada deal will be a disaster for the financial services industry, you know the largest contributor to the Exchequer.

I'll give you a clue, the Leaver in Stoke will be pissed as hell when the government cancels his tax credits because the Treasury doesn't have the funds to pay them.

I'm amazed that the EU were able to negotiate a deal with Canada that didn't look like any of their previous deals. I wonder if they'll discover that ability again?

How long has it taken to negotiate the Canada deal?

Does it cover financial services ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Wrong. Canada is the most popular choice of voters for the UK post Brexit with 50% supportive and 24% opposed, the Norway option is opposed by 38% to 35% and hard Brexit opposed by 44% to 32%.

The FTA that ends free movement that Canada offers is the only option that respects the vote and gets a trade deal with the EU too.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

One day you'll understand why Canada deal will be a disaster for the financial services industry, you know the largest contributor to the Exchequer.

I'll give you a clue, the Leaver in Stoke will be pissed as hell when the government cancels his tax credits because the Treasury doesn't have the funds to pay them.

The majority of voters in the Midlands and Wales and the North who voted Leave did not do so to keep free movement and protect the City, they did so to end free movement largely and control immigration from the EU and especially Eastern Europe. A FTA which ends free movement and keeps tariffs low on manufacturing exports to the EU, manufacturing being an industry where a significant number of them work is fine by them.

London where the City is based voted Remain but lost. We are going to have to accept that London's huge lead over the rest of the country and particularly the country beyond the Home Counties, in terms of wages and house prices etc is going to narrow post Brexit, that is democracy tough. I expect Paris will narrow the gap with London as the main European financial sector over the next few years but I still expect London to stay ahead.

It is also tax cuts for low and middle income workers we need, not more tax credits.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

LOL. This reminds me of when schools want to ‘ban’ mobile phones.

AnExileinD4 said:

HYUFD said:

Being PM does not guarantee you will hold your seat, as John Howard found out in 2007 in Australia.

However I do agree a Rudd v Davis, an aligner v a diverger, is the most likely choice Tory MPs will put before the Tory membership when May finally steps down before the next general election.

I thought Johnson was a certainty. Or was it Mogg? It’s hard to keep up with certain uncertainty. It is it uncertain certainty?

If Mogg or Boris got to the membership they would have a good chance but it is Davis and Rudd who likely have the most support from Tory MPs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnExileinD4 said:

HYUFD said:

Being PM does not guarantee you will hold your seat, as John Howard found out in 2007 in Australia.

However I do agree a Rudd v Davis, an aligner v a diverger, is the most likely choice Tory MPs will put before the Tory membership when May finally steps down before the next general election.

I thought Johnson was a certainty. Or was it Mogg? It’s hard to keep up with certain uncertainty. It is it uncertain certainty?

It was Boris, then it was Mogg, then it was DD.

Soon it'll be some other Leaver that HYUFD is certain about.

Whichever of those 3 Leavers gets to the membership will likely win the leadership in my view, probably with Rudd their opponent as she is now the lead Remainer, however at the moment it looks like Davis will be that man.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

Politicians and technology again. Don’t they have any technologists advising them at all? Maybe I should ask the government if they want to employ one...

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

Politicians and technology again. Don’t they have any technologists advising them at all? Maybe I should ask the government if they want to employ one...

Saying that, it isn't just politicians. The number of absolute horseshit articles I read about AI / Machine Learning in mainstream publications....

Something for Sunil to book for his holidays:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42384814

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

Politicians and technology again. Don’t they have any technologists advising them at all? Maybe I should ask the government if they want to employ one...

Saying that, it isn't just politicians. The number of absolute horseshit articles I read about AI / Machine Learning in mainstream publications....

Or cryptocurrency in recent weeks.

The point I keep making is that when we see a news story about something complicated that we have knowledge about and immediately call bullshit on it, what does that say about the other 99% of news where we are supposed to rely on them to inform us?

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/942349509367091200

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Uh oh. Canada would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/942401945016393728

Wrong. Canada is the most popular choice of voters for the UK post Brexit with 50% supportive and 24% opposed, the Norway option is opposed by 38% to 35% and hard Brexit opposed by 44% to 32%.

The FTA that ends free movement that Canada offers is the only option that respects the vote and gets a trade deal with the EU too.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

View with caution. (a) it's from 16 months ago. (b) It depends on voters understanding the explanation of YouGov's description of the Canada and Norway options (c) The same poll rejected any British contribution to the EU (never mind £40 billion or whatever), though it's not clear if this meant up-front or ongoing contributions.

I think a lot of people vaguely feel they'd rather be like Canada (big, independent-minded) than Norway (small, prospering but clearly not very independent). I doub t if most people have seriously weighed up EFTA vs NAFTA. But there are too many unknowns for most people to give a meaningful answer to a snap poll - how much trade disruption do we accept, with what consequences? What constraints on movement? What degree of regulatory identity? etc.

https://twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

The_Apocalypse said:

Yorkcity said:

The_Apocalypse said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

LOL. This reminds me of when schools want to ‘ban’ mobile phones.

Well the UK will be restricting porn from next year .I guess they think the age verification over 18 s will work.As many would not want to provide credit card details.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40628909

I wouldn’t be surprised to see people get past that. There’s gifs of porn on tumblr for example - how are they going to apply age verification to that?

The idea that government can somehow regulate porn off the Internet is as silly as it is futile. Twitter and Tumblr can’t keep porn off their own sites, while Facebook go the other way and delete photos of statues and discussion groups about cancer awareness.

Meanwhile all the teenagers will know how to use VPNs and proxy servers in no time at all.

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The French sailor François Gabart has broken the record for sailing solo around the world, circumnavigating the planet in 42 days and 16 hours.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/french-sailor-francois-gabart-fastest-solo-circumnavigation

And I bet he didn't even bring a fridge magnet back from his trip....

What are the rules for circumnavigation by boat? You could just sail around Antarctica and therefore 'go around the world', so I assume that you have to go over the Equator?

I am guessing there are very specific rules.

It looks like there are - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Around_the_world_sailing_record

It's amazing to think how the times have improved - the eastbound record in 1997 was 71 days, the latest earlier this year was just 40. The westbound record is 122 days!

I think I will give it a miss thanks :-)

Nah. You know you really want to do it. Just make sure your satphone has Internet access so you can keep on posting to PB.

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

What was the media vilification about? I'm not sure anything can logically culminate into racist abuse.

One racist moron turned up outside the training ground to throw a metaphorical banana at Sterling, and the media go mad and start blaming themselves. It was just one racist moron, which is a heck of a lot fewer than used to turn up at football grounds every weekend.

Sandpit said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Yorkcity said:

The_Apocalypse said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Politicians don't really understand this internet thingy do they...

Ban sale of mini mobile phones, justice secretary says

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42383351

The solution is mobile signal blocking. You can then have people shove as many mini-mobiles up their arse and it will do them no good at all.

LOL. This reminds me of when schools want to ‘ban’ mobile phones.

Well the UK will be restricting porn from next year .I guess they think the age verification over 18 s will work.As many would not want to provide credit card details.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40628909

I wouldn’t be surprised to see people get past that. There’s gifs of porn on tumblr for example - how are they going to apply age verification to that?

The idea that government can somehow regulate porn off the Internet is as silly as it is futile. Twitter and Tumblr can’t keep porn off their own sites, while Facebook go the other way and delete photos of statues and discussion groups about cancer awareness.

Meanwhile all the teenagers will know how to use VPNs and proxy servers in no time at all.

I think it is a terrible policy to start trying to make people verify their age. Who in their right mind would give personal details/ credit card numbers to a porn website? I certainly would not. As people have said ingenious individuals will always find ways around it. Porn has been around since photography became available to the masses. It really makes me mad that some prudish members of the government want to make it harder to find porn. Besides before the internet I remember as a teenager finding pornographic magazines with the pages stuck together in fields- do we really want to go back to that as a society? I would rather people looked at porn in their own environment without polluting the landscape with cast offs.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

Ending the 48 hour maximum week would mean you can work longer than that if you want to earn more money and you agree in your contract, it does not mean all UK workers will have to work over 48 hours a week.

You can already do that under the current rules. This change is completely meaningless from the point of view of allowing employees more freedom.

The_Taxman said:

Porn has been around since photography became available to the massespaintbrushes were invented. It really makes me mad that some prudish members of the government want to make it harder to find porn. Besides before the internet I remember as a teenager finding pornographic magazines with the pages stuck together in fields- do we really want to go back to that as a society? I would rather people looked at porn in their own environment without polluting the landscape with cast offs.

Fixed the first part.

Please tell me the double entendres were not deliberate.

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

What was the media vilification about? I'm not sure anything can logically culminate into racist abuse.

Basically he gave an interview that didn’t make him look great.

https://tinyurl.com/yclww8ty

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

What was the media vilification about? I'm not sure anything can logically culminate into racist abuse.

One racist moron turned up outside the training ground to throw a metaphorical banana at Sterling, and the media go mad and start blaming themselves. It was just one racist moron, which is a heck of a lot fewer than used to turn up at football grounds every weekend.

Hopefully they find him and ban him from attending any more matches. There is no room for that kind of behaviour in our society.

Of course. One racist moron is still one too many, even if huge progress has been made since the days of John Barnes being pelted with bananas.

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

Ending the 48 hour maximum week would mean you can work longer than that if you want to earn more money and you agree in your contract, it does not mean all UK workers will have to work over 48 hours a week.

You can already do that under the current rules. This change is completely meaningless from the point of view of allowing employees more freedom.

If the Tories think they can scrap the directive and make it so that employers can force employees to work overtime or risk the sack then I think they are destined for a long period of opposition.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/942349509367091200

All that shows is we have some stupid fecking laws that need changing.

Actually it is a law I support.

It is designed to stop every unaccredited Tom, Dick, and Harry trying to pass themselves of as official or approved.

For example you cannot have 'Chemist' in your business name without approval from The General Pharmaceutical Council.

Institute does not imply official or approved. Its official definition is 'an organisation founded to promote a cause'. It is bloody ridiculous that the state can decide what constitutes an institute and what does not. All it reveals is that whoever proposed and passed that law was too fecking lazy to read a dictionary.

Your comparison with 'Chemist' is fatuous.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/942349509367091200

All that shows is we have some stupid fecking laws that need changing.

If I remember rightly, there's a list of about a dozen words you're not allowed to use in company names without good reason. So, you can't call yourself "John Smith Trading (International) Ltd." unless you actually are international in some way, shape or form.

I don't know if "Institute" in on the list. If it is, it would be interesting to know what the requirements are to be one.

It's also possible they've fallen foul of the "trading under then name of" rules, which limit your ability to be John Smith Ltd, trading under the name of IBM.

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

What was the media vilification about? I'm not sure anything can logically culminate into racist abuse.

One racist moron turned up outside the training ground to throw a metaphorical banana at Sterling, and the media go mad and start blaming themselves. It was just one racist moron, which is a heck of a lot fewer than used to turn up at football grounds every weekend.

There's probably plenty of racist morons who still turn up, but thankfully they are less, and even most morons will know to keep their traps shut.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

The brazen dishonesty of this is quite something ...
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/942167511553970176

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/942401087293751297

Well, they didn't get a mandate for that manifesto so I guess it's junked?

Whatever the purported positives, however, I cannot see a minority government selling such an idea to the public.

ydoethur said:

The_Taxman said:

Porn has been around since photography became available to the massespaintbrushes were invented. It really makes me mad that some prudish members of the government want to make it harder to find porn. Besides before the internet I remember as a teenager finding pornographic magazines with the pages stuck together in fields- do we really want to go back to that as a society? I would rather people looked at porn in their own environment without polluting the landscape with cast offs.

Fixed the first part.

I doubt humanity waited until we had paintbrushes - hand daubed images sufficient with plenty of imagination.

Personally I think the proper way to enjoy porn is via the medium of scrimshaw, but it's hard to find these days

https://jezebel.com/5992178/vancouver-women-complains-that-museums-whale-bone-porn-is-tickling-too-many-moby-dicks

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

twitter.com/jonathanliew/status/942365439195152385

What was the media vilification about? I'm not sure anything can logically culminate into racist abuse.

One racist moron turned up outside the training ground to throw a metaphorical banana at Sterling, and the media go mad and start blaming themselves. It was just one racist moron, which is a heck of a lot fewer than used to turn up at football grounds every weekend.

Hopefully they find him and ban him from attending any more matches. There is no room for that kind of behaviour in our society.

Bit harsh on Sterling to ban him.