Maybe this isn't a profound or new insight, but is it just me, or has Corbyn + Brexit overtaken and made obsolete the "fed up with all politicians" vibe of 2009-16?
Many such people voted (when they did) LibDem until the coalition came along, then switched to UKIP, and are now rooting for Corbyn.
Looking at old SPOTY results, not only does turnout swing wildly (shocking turnout in 2011 especially) but it tends to have a really clear winner. Wonder why this year was so different?
There's never a good time to have a leadership contest, and there's essentially never a time the PM wants to leave. Betting on TM's tenure should be far more heavily weighted to 2019 onwards, and shouldn't rule out her fighting the next election. Brown, Major, both survived as 'dead men walking' until an election forced matters.
There's never a good time to have a leadership contest, and there's essentially never a time the PM wants to leave. Betting on TM's tenure should be far more heavily weighted to 2019 onwards, and shouldn't rule out her fighting the next election. Brown, Major, both survived as 'dead men walking' until an election forced matters.
On this note, the 8.5 at Betfair Sportsbook on TM surviving to 2020 is crazy. Far from a certain winner, but must be 33% likely as a minimum. Big value. I think the 1.9 on her surviving to 2019 isn't shabby, tbh.
Sir Mo Farah 83,524 Jonathan Rea 80,567 Jonnie Peacock 73,429 Anthony Joshua 73,411, Adam Peaty 63,739 Lewis Hamilton 60,627 Chris Froome 47,683 Harry Kane 18,759 Anya Shrubsole 15,237 Bianca Walkden 13,962 Johanna Konta 7,591 Elise Christie 6,504
My take from this:
1. If SPOTY can be anywhere near this tight at the top the odds should never be tighter than 1/3 on a favourite. 2. Women get shocking figures. Barely 20% of winners have been women.
That's a shockingly misogynist result
Why? Which women deserved more recognition this year than Farah, Rea, Peacock etc?
Comments
Christmas movie. End of.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/yippee-ki-yay-the-british-public-say-die-hard-is-not-a-christmas-movie/
They know nothing...
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