politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg might not even be a Tory MP at the time of the

'Red Ken' from Nottingham says he never read the 2017 Tory manifesto.

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

Recidivist said:

I posted it last night, but most of the people who don't like to be called phobes but don't have a better word for themselves are still in denial. So post away.

Brexiteers are clinging to the line that last year's vote must stand inviolate for all time.

Like every other vote. Oh, wait...

And who says that ?

Once the UK has left the EU anyone is free to campaign to rejoin.

Or are you saying that the vote to Leave should not be put into application.

If there is strong and enduring evidence that the majority of people have come to the view that proceeding with Brexit would be damaging, it would be madness not to go to a second vote.

Sean_F said:

Tezza won the election.

Tezza lost David Cameron's majority

Sean_F said:

What if another vote gives the same result? Do we have a further vote, after that?

You mean like if we elect a Labour government twice in a row we get another vote 5 years later?

tlg86 said:

maaarsh said:

tlg86 said:

maaarsh said:

it's been a long time since the Aussies have won over here, and their current team isn't good enough to do it regardless of the result on their home tracks.

That's quite a bold comment.

The last team to white-wash us over there couldn't win here the next time round, and this Aussie team is clearly weaker than that. In English conditions our bowling line up is better than theirs - in Australia they're light years ahead on that front this time round.

I'm working on the assumption our selectors go back to trying to pick our best players rather than people they've seen in T20 games who have poor first class records.

My memory of the 2015 Ashes is that we won two tests where the ball hooped around and, yes, the Aussies weren't up to it. The win at Cardiff was very good. But we were thumped at Lords and the Oval.

And I'm not sure the 2015 Australia team was better than this team. I'd forgotten that Ryan Harris retired before the series.

It's been 20 years since they produced more than 1 batsman in a side who can have consistent success against the Duke ball in swinging conditions, and given the money is now for T20 rather than a spell in county cricket, I'm going to have to see it happen before I believe it ever will again.

Regardless of the mess the current b-team selection is making it, we hold the last away win against far more opponents than anyone else in Test cricket, which is the real long term measure given how easily most teams hold serve at home.

Mr. Recidivist, the term 'sceptic' was used here for years, indeed, a decade or so (I joined in 2007) without anyone complaining. As has been said, it's only since the referendum that those on the other side of the fence have deemed it insufficiently pejorative and sought to amp up the rhetoric without regard for accuracy.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, the term 'sceptic' was used here for years, indeed, a decade or so (I joined in 2007) without anyone complaining. As has been said, it's only since the referendum that those on the other side of the fence have deemed it insufficiently pejorative and sought to amp up the rhetoric without regard for accuracy.

Remember "federasts"?

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

What if another vote gives the same result? Do we have a further vote, after that?

You mean like if we elect a Labour government twice in a row we get another vote 5 years later?

I think it would be impractical to have a referendum on EU membership every 5 years. For one thing, I doubt if the EU would be interested in negotiating with a country that did so.

Scott_P said:

tlg86 said:

No. I want the result of the vote implemented.

And I want the result of the GE implemented.

The one where Tezza asked for a mandate for hard Brexit, and the great British public told here where to stick it

The Tories and the DUP (who backed Brexit at the EU referendum) won a majority of seats in June and both back leaving the single market and ending free movement and aiming for a FTA.

Labour and the Tories both committed to not staying permanently in the single market at the general election in June and won over 80% of the votes combined. The LDs who were committed to staying permanently in the single market got just 7%.

In most Parliaments, the opposition take a lead between 18 months and two years into it. Once that happens, do we have another election?

We can vote again in 38 years time.

surbiton said:

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, alas, no. 'Phobe/phobia' is now used commonly in the same vein as 'denier', which is to say pejorative. The fictional nonsense of 'Islamophobia' is a prime example of such. Given the widespread use of 'xenophobia' to describe those who oppose the political institution of the EU, 'phobe' is not a neutral descriptor.

Yes it is.

Phobia means irrational fear, I had a very real fear that the EU would subsume the UK into a superstate. A fear once again confirmed by Martin Schulz just a few days ago. However you want to dress it up a federal EU is the final destination, people within the EU on disagree on the journey. I've heard from many that they don't disagree with Schulz, but that 2025 is too aggressive and risks breaking up the EU. They want nothing more than to plant their shite flag all over currently sovereign nations and do in in the least objectionable manner. It is not a phobia, but a real fear, given the stated aim of the EU and their ultimate aim of "ever closer union".

I'm sure you will have a glib one line/word answer but you're absolutely wrong to equate xenophobia with a very rational fear of the EU's ultimate direction.

So what word would you choose to describe someone who dislikes the EU? Hater sounds a lot uglier in my ears.

Eurosceptic or EUsceptic has worked fine for decades. It's only since the leave vote that your lot tried to ramp up the rhetoric.

Do you still believe that anyone against Brexit is a traitor ?

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

MaxPB said:

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

@tnewtondunn: Ken Clarke: “Eurosceptics have been voting against the Govt for the last 30 years. No one on my side has ever threatened to expel them to darkness” #bbcsp

MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt.

When were you campaigning for Bone and Cash to be expelled?

@tnewtondunn: More Brexit softening from Labour: Richard Burgon says they are “open minded” about an indefinite ongoing role for the ECJ to oversee a trade deal #bbcsp

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, alas, no. 'Phobe/phobia' is now used commonly in the same vein as 'denier', which is to say pejorative. The fictional nonsense of 'Islamophobia' is a prime example of such. Given the widespread use of 'xenophobia' to describe those who oppose the political institution of the EU, 'phobe' is not a neutral descriptor.

Yes it is.

Phobia means irrational fear, I had a very real fear that the EU would subsume the UK into a superstate. A fear once again confirmed by Martin Schulz just a few days ago. However you want to dress it up a federal EU is the final destination, people within the EU on disagree on the journey. I've heard from many that they don't disagree with Schulz, but that 2025 is too aggressive and risks breaking up the EU. They want nothing more than to plant their shite flag all over currently sovereign nations and do in in the least objectionable manner. It is not a phobia, but a real fear, given the stated aim of the EU and their ultimate aim of "ever closer union".

I'm sure you will have a glib one line/word answer but you're absolutely wrong to equate xenophobia with a very rational fear of the EU's ultimate direction.

So what word would you choose to describe someone who dislikes the EU? Hater sounds a lot uglier in my ears.

Eurosceptic or EUsceptic has worked fine for decades. It's only since the leave vote that your lot tried to ramp up the rhetoric.

Do you still believe that anyone against Brexit is a traitor ?

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

I don't remember people instructing MPs that they shouldn't have a vote on Brexit? What was the point of electing them otherwise?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

@carriesymonds: Diane Abbott on #Marr: "The Labour Party does not support a second referendum"

Tom Watson on #Pienaar: We "can't rule out" a second referendum

Watson is Deputy Leader, not Leader of Labour and has no Shadow Cabinet position beyond that. It is Corbyn and McDonnell who say what Labour will do on the EU and they are clear there will be no second EU referendum

Say what you want HYUFD but it is certainly not "clear"

Indeed likely deliberately so

It is certainly clear. Corbyn is anti staying in the EU (he was an anti EU backbencher when May supported the EU) and is anti permanently staying in the single market and McDonnell vehemently so as the ECJ could prevent them undertaking renationalisations (plus of course they do not want to lose Labour Leavers who oppose free movement).

It is about time deluded Labour diehard Remainers realise they will never reverse Brexit while Corbyn and McDonnell lead Labour. Either they defect to the LDs or the Greens or they shutup

Mr. Max, whilst I agree that Grieve and the others have voted in an unwelcome fashion (he claims not to know what would happen if the Commons votes down the deal, which speaks not well of him), I wouldn't use a term like 'traitor'.

I still think that Miliband's policies were daft and too left wing, but they have been thrown into sharp focus by the stark contrast with the socialist lunacy of those currently holding Labour's reins. In the same way, I think Grieve et al. are thoroughly mistaken and some in public life seem to consider themselves EU citizens above and beyond British citizens, but I am not persuaded it is wise to use terms such as 'traitors', any more than it is wise for those on the other side of fence to describe the majority of the nation as 'phobes'.

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

williamglenn said:

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

This poll was taken PRE phase 1 deal, ie now making it essentially worthless

'It is also worth noting that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted when much was being made in the public press about the UK’s failure to progress to the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. It is plausible therefore, that the latest polling is to some degree a reflection of what could be considered the height of tensions between the UK and EU negotiating teams, as well as public concerns over the Irish border, which included interventions from the Irish government and the DUP.'

The poll shift is also almost entirely based on those who did not bother to vote at the EU referendum anyway and are unlikely to turn out in a rerun referendum either. 'However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.'

A clear class divide also remains. ABs back Remain 58% to 35% and C1s by 54% to 40%. C2s back Leave 49% to 40% and DEs 48% to 41%.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, whilst I agree that Grieve and the others have voted in an unwelcome fashion (he claims not to know what would happen if the Commons votes down the deal, which speaks not well of him), I wouldn't use a term like 'traitor'.

Has Grieve really said that he doesn't know what would happen if the Commons votes down a deal? Is there a link to that?

The lady who presents the Sunday Politics didn't even bother asking Ken Clarke that very question.

MPs are free to vote as they wish, but I think they are playing with fire on this.

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, alas, no. 'Phobe/phobia' is now used commonly in the same vein as 'denier', which is to say pejorative. The fictional nonsense of 'Islamophobia' is a prime example of such. Given the widespread use of 'xenophobia' to describe those who oppose the political institution of the EU, 'phobe' is not a neutral descriptor.

Yes it is.

Phobia means irrational fear, I had a very real fear that the EU would subsume the UK into a superstate. A fear once again confirmed by Martin Schulz just a few days ago. However you want to dress it up a federal EU is the final destination, people within the EU on disagree on the journey. I've heard from many that they don't disagree with Schulz, but that 2025 is too aggressive and risks breaking up the EU. They want nothing more than to plant their shite flag all over currently sovereign nations and do in in the least objectionable manner. It is not a phobia, but a real fear, given the stated aim of the EU and their ultimate aim of "ever closer union".

I'm sure you will have a glib one line/word answer but you're absolutely wrong to equate xenophobia with a very rational fear of the EU's ultimate direction.

So what word would you choose to describe someone who dislikes the EU? Hater sounds a lot uglier in my ears.

Eurosceptic or EUsceptic has worked fine for decades. It's only since the leave vote that your lot tried to ramp up the rhetoric.

Admirable that you managed to use 'your lot' rather than 'you traitors'. Magnificent self control.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

This poll was taken PRE phase 1 deal, ie now making it essentially worthless

'It is also worth noting that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted when much was being made in the public press about the UK’s failure to progress to the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. It is plausible therefore, that the latest polling is to some degree a reflection of what could be considered the height of tensions between the UK and EU negotiating teams, as well as public concerns over the Irish border, which included interventions from the Irish government and the DUP.'

The poll shift is also almost entirely based on those who did not bother to vote at the EU referendum anyway and are unlikely to turn out in a rerun referendum either. 'However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.'

A clear class divide also remains. ABs back Remain 58% to 35% and C1s by 54% to 40%. C2s back Leave 49% to 40% and DEs 48% to 41%.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

More Tory June 2017 voters now back Leave 69% than the 67% of Labour voters who back Remain. 2017 general election LD voters are 70% Remain and SNP voters 74% Remain and Green voters 58% Remain, UKIP voters 88% Leave

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

This poll was taken PRE phase 1 deal, ie now making it essentially worthless

'It is also worth noting that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted when much was being made in the public press about the UK’s failure to progress to the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. It is plausible therefore, that the latest polling is to some degree a reflection of what could be considered the height of tensions between the UK and EU negotiating teams, as well as public concerns over the Irish border, which included interventions from the Irish government and the DUP.'

The poll shift is also almost entirely based on those who did not bother to vote at the EU referendum anyway and are unlikely to turn out in a rerun referendum either. 'However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.'

A clear class divide also remains. ABs back Remain 58% to 35% and C1s by 54% to 40%. C2s back Leave 49% to 40% and DEs 48% to 41%.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

The class divide on Brexit operating almost in reverse to the traditional class-divide in politics explains why things are now so turbulent and unpredictable. In the US there was the dramatic re-alignment of the two parties' support bases post-WWII; could similar ever happen in the UK?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/942360695487778816

He then said "What we’ve said is that we would respect the result of the first referendum."

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

This poll was taken PRE phase 1 deal, ie now making it essentially worthless

'It is also worth noting that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted when much was being made in the public press about the UK’s failure to progress to the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. It is plausible therefore, that the latest polling is to some degree a reflection of what could be considered the height of tensions between the UK and EU negotiating teams, as well as public concerns over the Irish border, which included interventions from the Irish government and the DUP.'

The poll shift is also almost entirely based on those who did not bother to vote at the EU referendum anyway and are unlikely to turn out in a rerun referendum either. 'However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.'

A clear class divide also remains. ABs back Remain 58% to 35% and C1s by 54% to 40%. C2s back Leave 49% to 40% and DEs 48% to 41%.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

The class divide on Brexit operating almost in reverse to the traditional class-divide in politics explains why things are now so turbulent and unpredictable. In the US there was the dramatic re-alignment of the two parties' support bases post-WWII; could similar ever happen in the UK?

The Tories have already won C2s in June, though they still won ABs as well because of fear of Corbyn. Labour narrowly won C1s but held DEs because of fear of the Tories.

So in terms of C1s and C2s Brexit has produced a shift, though ABs are still putting fear of socialism first and DEs fear of austerity.

Similarly in the US the Republicans still win the rich but not as much as the white working and lower middle class and the Democrats win graduates, ethnic minorities and the poorest voters.

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/942363380538540032

How significant is that, given the sample size?

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/942360695487778816

He then said "What we’ve said is that we would respect the result of the first referendum."

And if there is a second referendum we'll respect the result of that too!

And if Leave win again?

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

Tezza won the election.

Tezza lost David Cameron's majority

If Cameron hadn't achieved his majority we wouldn't be leaving the EU. So well done Dave.

True the threat of Ed Milliband in Alex Salmond's pocket caused Cameron's EU referendum.

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/942360695487778816

He then said "What we’ve said is that we would respect the result of the first referendum."

And if there is a second referendum we'll respect the result of that too!

And if Leave win again?

I'll be happy!

https://twitter.com/KensingtonRoyal/status/942353717101318144

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

@tnewtondunn: Ken Clarke: “Eurosceptics have been voting against the Govt for the last 30 years. No one on my side has ever threatened to expel them to darkness” #bbcsp

MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt.

When were you campaigning for Bone and Cash to be expelled?

The difference is hat we've since had a vote. All of the government action prior to the referendum was done without specific public approval. If there was a referendum on Lisbon that was approved and Tory EUsceptics voted against the enactment bill I would be calling for them to go as well. The public has taken a decision and now it is up to MPs to enact that decision. Their personal views (EU federalism) takes a back seat. The EUsceptic MPs before the referendum voting against the government weren't voting against the public's wishes. That's the difference and Ken knows this, which is why he is trying to muddy the waters.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/942363380538540032

How significant is that, given the sample size?

The words of a man that's never had palpitations over a Scotch sub sample.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/942360695487778816

He then said "What we’ve said is that we would respect the result of the first referendum."

Which is why they will eventually call for a second.

They won't. He has committed to Brexit, he has not committed to a second referendum as he knows the majority of Labour seats voted Leave in the referendum.

That won't matter a jot if public opinion shifts significantly. Often your posts appear to posit supposed hard truths based on your own interpretation of the past. The art is to be more open-minded about how things might change in the future.

If public opinion turns massively against Brexit, then I would anticipate that there would be a second referendum. Most polling currently shows opposition to a second referendum.

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

The EUsceptic MPs before the referendum voting against the government weren't voting against the public's wishes.

They were voting against the wishes of the public expressed at a referendum.

There is no difference, you just don't want to acknowledge it

There was a referendum on Maastricht? I must have missed it.

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

@tnewtondunn: Ken Clarke: “Eurosceptics have been voting against the Govt for the last 30 years. No one on my side has ever threatened to expel them to darkness” #bbcsp

MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt.

When were you campaigning for Bone and Cash to be expelled?

The difference is hat we've since had a vote. All of the government action prior to the referendum was done without specific public approval. If there was a referendum on Lisbon that was approved and Tory EUsceptics voted against the enactment bill I would be calling for them to go as well. The public has taken a decision and now it is up to MPs to enact that decision. Their personal views (EU federalism) takes a back seat. The EUsceptic MPs before the referendum voting against the government weren't voting against the public's wishes. That's the difference and Ken knows this, which is why he is trying to muddy the waters.

Is there any evidence the public was opposed to the amendment voted on last week?

And of course the "rebels" this week were not voting against Brexit.

They were voting against the executive.

Parliamentary Sovereignty. Take Back Control !!!!

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/KensingtonRoyal/status/942353717101318144

Obama proving - once again - how much he hates Britain; as opposed to the IRA-backer currently in the White House.

stevef said:

Yorkcity said:

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

Tezza won the election.

Tezza lost David Cameron's majority

If Cameron hadn't achieved his majority we wouldn't be leaving the EU. So well done Dave.

True the threat of Ed Milliband in Alex Salmond's pocket caused Cameron's EU referendum.

How dare the British people be given the right to decide their country's future. What business is it of theirs?

The Ed Milliband , Labour party you say you supported ,would not have held a referendum, if they had won the 2015 GE.

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

@tnewtondunn: Ken Clarke: “Eurosceptics have been voting against the Govt for the last 30 years. No one on my side has ever threatened to expel them to darkness” #bbcsp

MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt.

When were you campaigning for Bone and Cash to be expelled?

The difference is hat we've since had a vote. All of the government action prior to the referendum was done without specific public approval. If there was a referendum on Lisbon that was approved and Tory EUsceptics voted against the enactment bill I would be calling for them to go as well. The public has taken a decision and now it is up to MPs to enact that decision. Their personal views (EU federalism) takes a back seat. The EUsceptic MPs before the referendum voting against the government weren't voting against the public's wishes. That's the difference and Ken knows this, which is why he is trying to muddy the waters.

Is there any evidence the public was opposed to the amendment voted on last week?

An amendment designed to reverse the public vote? Yes. They can call it what they want but that is the desired effect of their amendment. Hoping that Labour will be in by then so they can vote down the deal and then reverse A50. Their treachery is complete, going against the public vote and willing their party to lose. Their love of the EU has completely taken over all of their senses.

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Full details of the BMG EU referendum poll have been published - http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

This poll was taken PRE phase 1 deal, ie now making it essentially worthless

'It is also worth noting that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted when much was being made in the public press about the UK’s failure to progress to the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. It is plausible therefore, that the latest polling is to some degree a reflection of what could be considered the height of tensions between the UK and EU negotiating teams, as well as public concerns over the Irish border, which included interventions from the Irish government and the DUP.'

The poll shift is also almost entirely based on those who did not bother to vote at the EU referendum anyway and are unlikely to turn out in a rerun referendum either. 'However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.'

A clear class divide also remains. ABs back Remain 58% to 35% and C1s by 54% to 40%. C2s back Leave 49% to 40% and DEs 48% to 41%.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/

The class divide on Brexit operating almost in reverse to the traditional class-divide in politics explains why things are now so turbulent and unpredictable. In the US there was the dramatic re-alignment of the two parties' support bases post-WWII; could similar ever happen in the UK?

The realignment has been ongoing since the 1980's, but the Brexit vote probably accelerated the process. So, the Conservatives now have no chance in seats like Leeds NE, Manchester Withington, or Hornsey & Wood Green, but win seats like Stoke South and Mansfield.

According to Mori at the 2015 general election the Tories won ABs with 45% to 26% over Labour, a lead of 19%, at the 2017 general election the Tories won ABs 47% to 37%, a lead of just 10%.

At the 2015 general election the Tories won C1s 41% to 29%, a lead of 12%, at the 2017 general election the Tories won C1s 44% to 40%, a lead of just 4%.

In 2015 the Tories and Labour were tied on 32% each with C2s, in 2017 the Tories won C2s by 45% to 41%.

In 2015 Labour won DEs by 41% to 27%, a lead of 14%, in 2017 Labour won DEs by 47% to 38%, a lead of just 9%.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Another problem with EUREF2 is that if it produces a different result we will unleash a very nasty state of affairs into our national life for the foreseeable future. Without wishing to invoke Godwin’s law, I fear some sort of ‘stab in the back’ narrative which would be incredibly unhealthy for the stability of our society and democracy.

numbertwelve said:

Another problem with EUREF2 is that if it produces a different result we will unleash a very nasty state of affairs into our national life for the foreseeable future. Without wishing to invoke Godwin’s law, I fear some sort of ‘stab in the back’ narrative which would be incredibly unhealthy for the stability of our society and democracy.

The stab in the back narrative is already thriving.

We unleashed a very nasty state of affairs the first time round. An MP was murdered.

@tconnellyRTE: Here’s what a senior EU official says: “You can’t have frictionless trade and be outside the customs union and the single market. The way to have frictionless trade is to be in those constructions. That’s why they were created.”

@tconnellyRTE: And here’s what Boris Johnson says today:“What we need to do is something new & ambitious, which allows zero tariffs & frictionless trade but still gives us that important freedom to decide our own regulatory framework, our own laws & do things in a distinctive way in the future”

Scott_P said:

numbertwelve said:

Another problem with EUREF2 is that if it produces a different result we will unleash a very nasty state of affairs into our national life for the foreseeable future. Without wishing to invoke Godwin’s law, I fear some sort of ‘stab in the back’ narrative which would be incredibly unhealthy for the stability of our society and democracy.

The stab in the back narrative is already thriving.

We unleashed a very nasty state of affairs the first time round. An MP was murdered.

Quite. Which is why I fear making it worse.

Scott_P said:

@tconnellyRTE: Here’s what a senior EU official says: “You can’t have frictionless trade and be outside the customs union and the single market. The way to have frictionless trade is to be in those constructions. That’s why they were created.”

@tconnellyRTE: And here’s what Boris Johnson says today:“What we need to do is something new & ambitious, which allows zero tariffs & frictionless trade but still gives us that important freedom to decide our own regulatory framework, our own laws & do things in a distinctive way in the future”

Brexit will be soft and fluffy. It will change very little, except living standards - which will be lower than they would otherwise have been - and the UK’s international standing - which will be diminished. Buy shares in Betrayal.

Scott_P said:

@tconnellyRTE: Here’s what a senior EU official says: “You can’t have frictionless trade and be outside the customs union and the single market. The way to have frictionless trade is to be in those constructions. That’s why they were created.”

@tconnellyRTE: And here’s what Boris Johnson says today:“What we need to do is something new & ambitious, which allows zero tariffs & frictionless trade but still gives us that important freedom to decide our own regulatory framework, our own laws & do things in a distinctive way in the future”

I suppose it depends what is meant by frictionless.

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

@tconnellyRTE: Here’s what a senior EU official says: “You can’t have frictionless trade and be outside the customs union and the single market. The way to have frictionless trade is to be in those constructions. That’s why they were created.”

@tconnellyRTE: And here’s what Boris Johnson says today:“What we need to do is something new & ambitious, which allows zero tariffs & frictionless trade but still gives us that important freedom to decide our own regulatory framework, our own laws & do things in a distinctive way in the future”

Brexit will be soft and fluffy. It will change very little, except living standards - which will be lower than they would otherwise have been - and the UK’s international standing - which will be diminished. Buy shares in Betrayal.

You hope.

numbertwelve said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/942368540073627648

I have strong doubts a second referendum will happen. Most people just want the whole thing done now though they will say if they disagree with it. I can’t see the public enjoying being put through the polling booths again after 2.5 years of all this to declare the whole thing a waste of time, effort and money. I suspect a new Brexit vote would break slightly more in favour of leave, unless it’s a no deal option. For that reason, I think it benefits remainer politicians to dangle the bauble because it cheers more pro-EU voters up, but I think it’s extremely unlikely to happen.

It could happen.Refendums on the EC and EU only happen when the governing party and cabinet are split.As in 1975 and 2016.Who can honestly say that the cabinet will come to an agreed decision on the terms of our leaving ? As usual it is nothing to do with giving the British people a right to decide , but a fix because our governing class can not make a decision.

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

MaxPB said:

I made very clear, I hold nothing against remain voters, it's the MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt. Grieve and his 10 traitors should be purged from our party at the first possible opportunity.

@tnewtondunn: Ken Clarke: “Eurosceptics have been voting against the Govt for the last 30 years. No one on my side has ever threatened to expel them to darkness” #bbcsp

MPs who have been instructed by the people that are defying said instruction that I hold in contempt.

When were you campaigning for Bone and Cash to be expelled?

The difference is hat we've since had a vote. All of the government action prior to the referendum was done without specific public approval. If there was a referendum on Lisbon that was approved and Tory EUsceptics voted against the enactment bill I would be calling for them to go as well. The public has taken a decision and now it is up to MPs to enact that decision. Their personal views (EU federalism) takes a back seat. The EUsceptic MPs before the referendum voting against the government weren't voting against the public's wishes. That's the difference and Ken knows this, which is why he is trying to muddy the waters.

Is there any evidence the public was opposed to the amendment voted on last week?

An amendment designed to reverse the public vote? Yes. They can call it what they want but that is the desired effect of their amendment. Hoping that Labour will be in by then so they can vote down the deal and then reverse A50. Their treachery is complete, going against the public vote and willing their party to lose. Their love of the EU has completely taken over all of their senses.

So, no evidence at all then.

Conversely, any evidence they supported it?

Not that I’ve seen. I was arguing with the claim that the 11 Tory rebels were voting against the public’s wishes.

The public support Parliament being given a meaningful vote, see the ICM poll in the Sun linked to below.