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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg might not even be a Tory MP at the time of the next Tory leadership contest
.@Jacob_Rees_Mogg on transition deal: “We cannot be a colony of the EU for two years from 2019 to 2021, accepting new laws that are made without any say-so from the British people, parliament or government…that is being a vassal state of the EU” #newsnight pic.twitter.com/PVMWYDnrgB
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Do we see in this thread the first positive comment from TSE about Mrs May and her negotiations, by the way?
Or, perish the thought, the effect of Brexit on the farm!
The Phase 1 agreement is not sustainable as it primarily signposts to an outcome that is not acceptable to the UK and is certainly worse than no deal.
JRM deserves credit because alone of the Brexiteers he sees the matter in terms of principle and not (for example with Gove and Johnson) in terms of personal political advancement.
If I am right and the Phase 2 talks turn to disaster, who are the Tories going to turn to? Someone who was right to point out the problems all along or someone who pretended that regulatory alignment was in any way compatible with taking back control?
Every time I see an anti-JRM post from the remainers I laugh - because it shows how terrified they are that he really is the person most likely to the the next PM. But keep repeating 'lay the favourite' if it makes you feel better, cos following conventional wisdom works so well these days....
You'd get better odds of him becoming a Hari Krishna convert than of losing the Tory whip.
Treat it as an opportunity to develop new talent and to enforce some discipline in the side.
And fire the selectors the minute this series is over, they’re not fit for purpose.
@Archer101au the only problem with this binary decision point is the practicalities don't work. I know that you dislike that HMRC and the port operators and the food industry and the automotive industry and the aircraft industry and the chemicals industry people have all detailed why hard Brexit WTO would utterly cripple them, but they are the experts in the field and you are not. If as you describe it it's a binary all in or all out decision, the responsible thing for free Trade pro business Tories to advocate would be all in. Yet you do not. Why is that...?
Its not just a matter of the Tory whip - even if JRM still had it, had he played a part in bringing down a Tory government the chances of Tory MPs putting him forward would be vanishingly small
There does need to be some serious thinking from the ECB after this series though, this is by no means a decent Australian side but they’ve made us look like complete amateurs.
The executive team need to consider their own positions, get rid of the lot of them and start from scratch, targeting the 2019 Ashes home series.
Can't remember if I've backed Mogg.
I think the safest option would be a Hunt-Mordaunt final two.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5186797/Britons-Remain-Leave-10-points.html
It's the return Ashes we should be targeting.
I am saying therefore that we should build a team capable of winning the Ashes in Australia, which is a more formidable target but therefore likely to build a more formidable team.
Meanwhile, no Leavers seem interested in considering why public opinion seems to be turning away from Brexit:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-latest-poll-remain-ten-points-leave-bmg-a8114406.html
Then again, F1 has the halo and about seven dry tyre compounds next year...
F1: just idly checking odds. Interesting Ladbrokes and Betfair divergence. Vettel and Verstappen are equal, 4.33, on the former, but 3.9 and 7 respectively on the latter.
The message should be quite simple: you are representing your country, and getting paid well for it. In return, you have to forgo the ability to go out and get pi**ed and act like an ass whilst on tour. And if you do, then you'll get sent home automatically. No second chances.
Any player who squeals about it should be dropped.
That really is a remarkable thought...
Gove will undoubtedly be the furthest advanced on this.
People who don't vote.....don't vote.....
(And she thinks the Moggster is a sex god. What's not to love.?)
May looks secure. For now.
Yet for once, they turned out, and somehow he got to 39.99%.
One potentially interesting question is whether they will turn out again at the next election. That is what current Labour strategy seems to be assuming, but if it was a personal vote for Corbyn and he doesn't last until the next election that could be up in the air.
The key question remains what happens if the Commons votes no. The wet lettuce Grieve claiming he had no idea suggests that some, at least, will be aiming for a revocation and return to the status quo ante (ie remaining in the EU). If we assume unilateral revocation is within the bounds of legality, such a move would be technically legal, but cause enormous ructions democratically.
"“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.
“Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”
Leavers seem wholly uninterested in the implications of following through on a course of action if that has lost popular support.
It would also make him the oldest ever first time Prime Minister, ahead of Palmerston who came to power under pretty unusual circumstances that we can safely say will not apply to Corbyn.
If he is forced to leave, the lack of a clear and plausible successor may cause divisions in the party and particularly on the left to reopen. Considering how divisive he is, his ability to reunite Labour behind him in the last six months is an astonishing achievement. Could Cat Smith or Rebecca Long-Bailey or Yvette Cooper manage it? The question only needs asking to be answered.
So if he has a big personal vote then Labour is still vulnerable.
So far, the Brexit process has been all about tolerating the costs without being in a position to yield any benefits. It will not be so, in full, for over another 3 years.
The slightest excuse which Remainers clutch to in order to try and obstruct, frustrate and reverse Brexit explains why Leavers fundamentally distrust them.
They are rather desperate because they know it's their last chance because, once Brexit is complete, and the new powers become popular, they will have nothing left to cling to.
Even if he retains the whip (which he probably will) I don't think Rees-Mogg will actually succeed May, I think that is more likely to be someone from the second and third group who will have more MP support at this stage. However if and when the Tories lose power Rees-Mogg will be in a strong position to take over as leader of the opposition, especially as he is likely to win a big majority in his own seat at the next general election as the candidate of his local Tory association.
Interestingly, 55-64 was the demographic that dropped significantly, from 80% to 72%.
Figures are here:
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
Or Google
'Youth turnout at general election highest in 25 years, data show' [sic]
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/needed-early-in-the-new-year-a-reshuffle-to-help-britain-better-prepare-for-leaving-the-eu.html
Not convinced.
While his management style had flaws and deteriorated towards the end, you cannot say it didn't have its successes too.
It is said of earthly power that he bears not the sword in vain: for he is God's minister, an avenger to execute wrath upon him that does evil.
Firing the selectors would be a good idea if only because it would enable us to see who they actually are.
The ECB seems to dislike the idea of a single 'manager'. The only explanation I have ever seen for this is that it is too similar to what happens in football. No, I don't follow that logic either but then neither the ECB nor the selectors, whoever they may be, are much inclined to explain themselves.
Some of their selections have been bizarre, yet nobody stands before a camera and explains why, for example, the squad included Hampshire's second best spin bowler as England's number one (and then didn't play him.) There may have been a very good reason, but we don't get to hear it.
And just who does pick the team? I follow cricket closer than most but I'm not sure. My best guess is that it's a committee, with different views weighing heavier at different times. I think Bayliss is prominent, as is whittaker. Strauss is in their somewhere, as is Angus Fraser as some sort of bowling adviser. I hear rumours of Kevin Pietersen's involvement, which sounds improbable until you note the selection of Hampshire spinners with thin credentials (Dawson and Crane). The uncertainty about who is charge leads to the suspicion that it's an incoherent preocess in which no individual can be easily held to account for failure. Certainly England's selection process has been characterised by incoherence for a couple of years now.
The pity is that we have the basis of a good team, world-class even. Eight of the players pick themselves because they are obviously up to Test standard. So being an England selector amounts to finding three more players, and a few reserves. How difficult can that be?
If the players aren't there, they can't be blamed but picking implausible candidates - Dawson and Jennings for example - whilst turning your back on players with some sort of Test credentials (the likes of Rashid, Hales and Buttler) isn't going to help.
I thought we had a bit of a squeak in Australia, even though we plainly did not take the best squad. I was wrong. The gulf between the two sides is huge. It would still have been huge if we had taken our best. But at least we would have known then that the problem lay in the shortcomings of our domestic game and the lack of suitable talent it produces, rather than being left pondering what might have happened if we had a coherent and intelligent selection process.
These things can be overplayed.
I suppose it's possible that you could get turnout in a 2nd EU referendum even higher, to, say, 85%, and have all those new voters break heavily for Remain, but - learning another lesson of GE2017 - current polling is theoretical and based on the abstract.
If a 2nd referendum campaign were actually called, and the real terms of Remain became clear, versus the emerging shape of the deal to Leave, with both positions tested via the stress of a national campaign, I'd be very nervous as a Remainer running with those numbers. Very, very few of those who did vote last time have changed their minds.
If it failed, I suppose Remainers could ask for a 3rd one..
So what do their views matter? It's their letter to the sub commander that's relevant, and past PMs have confessed to accepting that if the letter is read "we've already lost and what's the point "
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5156114/theresa-may-brexit-poll-support-conservative-party/
Works like that in most sports.
There is a bounce for May, but not for the Tories.
We are more optimistic about the economics of Brexit, but increasingly turning against it. (In fact, there hasn’t been a majority in favour of Brexit since Feb 17).
Cook apparently having reached the end of his career hasn't helped, but who was suggesting he be dropped in advance of the tour ?