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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge towards to the year end three seasonal political betting tips
Date of the Next UK election: 2022, 5/2 SkyBet
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I'd be careful with Rudd but betting against Boris and JRM looks value. Betting against Corbyn as next PM is another that looks good.
Edit/ 1/3 Green are the backing odds but don't think he can be laid at anything near that?
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Never mind, the rest of your post was equally well informed.
* urgh
2) Who?
Tracey crouch available at over 500-1 on betfair exchange.
Anywho with england cricketers being gound down, past correlation suggests spurs might be whipped later on .... not top.
I’m with David H in laying the favourite half dozen in the next leader market.
As for Boris, breaking wind has the ability to make people listen, turn and look. His ability to delegate is not one of his problems. His ability to inspire confidence among MPs is.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
If we'd made just 50 runs more, I think a draw would have been nailed on. (In that it would effectively have reduced the number of sessions we'd have to fave by one.)
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
It's high time the bookies, particularly the more imaginative ones in terms of political betting came up with some new and interesting markets for 2018 and I speak here of Paddy Power, Wm. Hill .... (yes really!) and of course Ladbrokes .... where's Shadsy been almost invisible these past several months? Markets like perhaps who will be Foreign Secretary, Chancellor, etc on 31 Dec 2018. How many of the present cabinet will have left their present positions by the same date, etc. What will be the highest polling figure recorded for the LibDems by [Name of Pollster] during 2018. Will Bercow still be Speaker at 31 Dec 2018. Will SeanT return to the PB.com fold next year, etc, etc.
Doubtless PBers are more than capable of coming up with some much more interesting and innovative ideas.
Ha, I wish I had the cash to lay everyone under 20/1.
F1: Williams decide to procrastinate on the driver decision until next year:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42370387
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
Aus. 1.41 to win on betfair is surely a candy/baby situation?
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
But if we want to make deals, there are costs.
Mogg is just being provocatively hyperbolic concerning the costs.
Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.
Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.
Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”
It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.
1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
2) Build endless new towns (locations and financing not revealed)
Nevertheless Tories need to find someone who after 12 years can take them safely into opposition. Rudd is a risk.
And if it's after 2021 the 'winning' shine will have rubbed off her in all probability.
Still, at least we are not yet Lithuania...
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-a-single-remark-stole-a-lithuanian-writers-livelihood
Surely the man (he's named, of course, whereas his accuser is not, because that's equality) would have pointed out these many messages? Not to mention other witnesses.
... The Liz Kendall of the Tory party.
Thought it was day 4, and not 3 in the test. England really are in the deep stuff :E
The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.
The selectors should be sacked. All of them. Now.
It helps to distract attention from his mediocre record of one 5w/i in his last 29 tests.
1) Being PM generally gets an MP a boost in their own seat, so all things being equal it makes sense to cash that in by picking one from a marginal
2) If they fail badly enough to lose their own seat, the voters save the party the trouble of sacking them.
I recently helped a friend with a Tax Credit case that went to a judicial hearing and it was clear to me that had the case been reviewed properly it would never have got that far. My impression was in fact that it had never not reviewed at all, and that under-pressure case officers were just throwing cases 'over the top' in the hope that some got through.
Sounds like the same basic disease.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42374693
DYOR, as my friend would say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42377177
Gemma Atkinson is 23s on Betfair to win Strictly.
That price is so wrong, back her.
For the record, I'm also laying Alexandra Burke.
No one is talking about the economy: Remainers because it isn't in recession and Leavers because it is so anaemic. But it is likely to be central to how the political debate develops.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
In your dreams!
@AlbertoNardelli: Main impact of Davis remarks is that EU27 want *everything* that is agreed at every stage of the talks translated into a legal text before there can be proper progress in any next stage.
Now I really must go, Sorry Morris, didn't get the Latin.
What happened to those freshly painted red lines he was celebrating last week?
I PB moves markets.
But, this type of error is pretty basic.
Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316
I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.
Mr. Eagles, cheers. Is that tonight?
It's been a long time since I paid attention to SCD (long time members may recall I got screwed over by the BBC's Tom Chambers bullshit) - is there an elimination or suchlike, or is it just a case of the winner being picked from all the finalists? [Wondering about hedging possibilities].
Even so, I can't see Little Lord Fauntleroy being an election winner for the Tories.
The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.
How’d that turn out ?
If ever he had harboured a conscience in his tough narrow breast he had by now dug out and flung away the awkward thing — flung it so far away that were he ever to need it again he could never find it. High-shouldered to a degree little short of malformation, slender and adroit of limb and frame, his eyes close-set and the colour of dried blood, he is climbing the spiral staircase of the soul of Gormenghast, bound for some pinnacle of the itching fancy — some wild, invulnerable eyrie best known to himself; where he can watch the world spread out below him, and shake exultantly his clotted wings