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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge towards to the year end three seasonal political betting tips
Date of the Next UK election: 2022, 5/2 SkyBet
Comments
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First!
I'd be careful with Rudd but betting against Boris and JRM looks value. Betting against Corbyn as next PM is another that looks good.
Edit/ 1/3 Green are the backing odds but don't think he can be laid at anything near that?0 -
A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.0 -
Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.0
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Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?0
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Oh dear.Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not
Never mind, the rest of your post was equally well informed.0 -
Lol - David Herdson is a Conservative activist - he gave is early warning to the debacle of the GE result!Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
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Speaking as a Conservative* Mr Herdson is incorrect. Andrea Leadsom and JRM represent the true values of the party and are best placed to define a modern post Brexit Britain and connect with the next generation.
* urgh0 -
Conservatives need to pay some attention to people's reactions after the turning and looking bit....Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
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“Point and laugh” may not be the optimum outcome....IanB2 said:
Conservatives need to pay some attention to people's reactions after the turning and looking bit....Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
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You all know my view. The Moggmeister has the Moggmentum0
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1) Yes - he’s survived in a difficult senior position and isn’t particularly associated with Brexit.Jonathan said:Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?
2) Who?
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An iota of judgment might be helpful, too...Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
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Whoops.Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
Tracey crouch available at over 500-1 on betfair exchange.
Anywho with england cricketers being gound down, past correlation suggests spurs might be whipped later on .... not top.0 -
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
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My backs in this market are Hunt, Gove and Hammond, all of whom are pretty much keeping their heads down and avoiding the Brexit wars at the moment. Hunt as you say has done incredibly well in what’s the most difficult and political of departments.CarlottaVance said:
1) Yes - he’s survived in a difficult senior position and isn’t particularly associated with Brexit.Jonathan said:Hunt definitely has is sights on the leadership. Will Cable last the year?
2) Who?
I’m with David H in laying the favourite half dozen in the next leader market.0 -
I'll take that as an endorsement of what I hope was dispassionate analysis.Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
As for Boris, breaking wind has the ability to make people listen, turn and look. His ability to delegate is not one of his problems. His ability to inspire confidence among MPs is.0 -
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.0 -
Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.0
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I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..0 -
They're smartly upping the run rate, which puts a lot of pressure on England.Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
If we'd made just 50 runs more, I think a draw would have been nailed on. (In that it would effectively have reduced the number of sessions we'd have to fave by one.)0 -
I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.0 -
Well that's Spurs doomed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.0 -
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A timely and interesting thread Mr. Herdson but 2 of your 3 suggested betting markets are simply too long term to set the pulse racing.
It's high time the bookies, particularly the more imaginative ones in terms of political betting came up with some new and interesting markets for 2018 and I speak here of Paddy Power, Wm. Hill .... (yes really!) and of course Ladbrokes .... where's Shadsy been almost invisible these past several months? Markets like perhaps who will be Foreign Secretary, Chancellor, etc on 31 Dec 2018. How many of the present cabinet will have left their present positions by the same date, etc. What will be the highest polling figure recorded for the LibDems by [Name of Pollster] during 2018. Will Bercow still be Speaker at 31 Dec 2018. Will SeanT return to the PB.com fold next year, etc, etc.
Doubtless PBers are more than capable of coming up with some much more interesting and innovative ideas.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Ha, I wish I had the cash to lay everyone under 20/1.
F1: Williams decide to procrastinate on the driver decision until next year:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/423703870 -
Punters backing JRM for Next Con leader / Next PM need to be aware that there's a not-insignificant risk that he won't hold a Tory whip when the election comes.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/9418026697017098260 -
And for the OP to glibly concede that he's a sh* manager is skipping over some fundamental qualities for a PM. London is littered with his expensive mistakes.david_herdson said:
I'll take that as an endorsement of what I hope was dispassionate analysis.Vinny said:Good ideas, Mr Herdson, but speaking as a Conservative myself, which I guess you are not, it can only be Boris Johnson for the leadership. Managerial qualitities are a second-order consideration; the fact is, he has the ability to make people listen, turn and look, which the others do not. All he needs is the ability to delegate.
As for Boris, breaking wind has the ability to make people listen, turn and look. His ability to delegate is not one of his problems. His ability to inspire confidence among MPs is.0 -
On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.0 -
Holy crap pass the service revolverTheScreamingEagles said:
I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.0 -
The big windbag is first rat out of the sinking ship, she will fit in well at the cesspit trough in Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.0 -
OK, my love affair with Mogg just hit the buffers. "Vassal state" is beneath-the-line-on-Guido talk.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
Aus. 1.41 to win on betfair is surely a candy/baby situation?0 -
Mogg has a point. As a member of the EU we elect MEPs who participate in the production of laws which we have to follow. When we leave the EU other people will elect MEPs who pass laws we have to follow.0
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To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.0 -
That's still quite a tall order -TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
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There are those of us who would pay hard cash not to watch football, so the choice doesn't seem quite so absurd to me.malcolmg said:
Holy crap pass the service revolverTheScreamingEagles said:
I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.
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We don't *have* to follow anything.RochdalePioneers said:Mogg has a point. As a member of the EU we elect MEPs who participate in the production of laws which we have to follow. When we leave the EU other people will elect MEPs who pass laws we have to follow.
But if we want to make deals, there are costs.
Mogg is just being provocatively hyperbolic concerning the costs.
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She's making noises about it.david_herdson said:
To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.
Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.
Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”
It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit0 -
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Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.0 -
Not to mention get some policies other than:peter_from_putney said:
That's still quite a tall order -TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
1) End WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland
2) Build endless new towns (locations and financing not revealed)0 -
She'd get a double boost, since May would not be leading the campaign.Sean_F said:
Party leaders frequently get a boost in their own seat.MaxPB said:Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
Nevertheless Tories need to find someone who after 12 years can take them safely into opposition. Rudd is a risk.0 -
But if the leadership election is before 2021 Davidson won't be an MP.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
And if it's after 2021 the 'winning' shine will have rubbed off her in all probability.0 -
Nationalism, founded as it is in emotion rather than reason, can be a very ugly thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making noises about it.david_herdson said:
To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.
Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.
Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”
It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
Still, at least we are not yet Lithuania...
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-a-single-remark-stole-a-lithuanian-writers-livelihood0 -
Mr. Richard, it's absolutely atrocious. Either the police were incompetent, or they did it deliberately. Both are terrible.
Surely the man (he's named, of course, whereas his accuser is not, because that's equality) would have pointed out these many messages? Not to mention other witnesses.0 -
Anna Soubry for leader....
... The Liz Kendall of the Tory party.0 -
Oh my !
Thought it was day 4, and not 3 in the test. England really are in the deep stuff :E0 -
2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.
The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.0 -
Cricket at its best is an escape from the troubles of the world. Oh my indeed.0
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JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/9418026697017098260 -
Still, it's a good job we left Adil Rashi at home. He bowls too many four balls, you know.Jonathan said:Cricket at its best is an escape from the troubles of the world. Oh my
The selectors should be sacked. All of them. Now.0 -
I once did a mini pupillage with Jerry Hayes, great character and top lawyeranother_richard said:Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.0 -
Stuart Broad should be relieved that there's been so much talk of Anderson and Cook being on the way out.Pulpstar said:Oh my !
Thought it was day 4, and not 3 in the test. England really are in the deep stuff :E
It helps to distract attention from his mediocre record of one 5w/i in his last 29 tests.
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I don't follow the argument about "lack of resources". It's hardly rocket science that such evidence needs to be disclosed.another_richard said:Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.0 -
I dare say that Jerry Hayes wouldn't lose out if more taxpayers money was spent in this area.Sean_F said:
I don't follow the argument about "lack of resources". It's hardly rocket science that such evidence needs to be disclosed.another_richard said:Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.0 -
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That's a feature not a bug:MaxPB said:Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
1) Being PM generally gets an MP a boost in their own seat, so all things being equal it makes sense to cash that in by picking one from a marginal
2) If they fail badly enough to lose their own seat, the voters save the party the trouble of sacking them.0 -
Interesting that the Review Process seems to have failed completely.another_richard said:Shocking behaviour by the Met plods:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42366629
And a chance to see former Conservative MP Jerry Hayes.
I recently helped a friend with a Tax Credit case that went to a judicial hearing and it was clear to me that had the case been reviewed properly it would never have got that far. My impression was in fact that it had never not reviewed at all, and that under-pressure case officers were just throwing cases 'over the top' in the hope that some got through.
Sounds like the same basic disease.0 -
Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].0 -
Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-423746930 -
I have to dash out. Cheltenham today. But before I go I'd like to point out to watchers of the Trump market that his popularity rating is down to an all-time low of 36.5%. Generally speaking, 40% is regarded as dangerously low, and 35% critical.
DYOR, as my friend would say.0 -
Cameron to take charge of a new £750 million scheme encouraging port, rail and road links between China and its trading partners
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-423771770 -
I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.Dura_Ace said:
If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.MaxPB said:Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
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Oh I do hope so!HYUFD said:
JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
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Betting post.
Gemma Atkinson is 23s on Betfair to win Strictly.
That price is so wrong, back her.
For the record, I'm also laying Alexandra Burke.0 -
I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.HYUFD said:Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-423746930 -
David Herdson's tips look sound. I'd be careful about Amber Rudd though since she has a modicum of competence and as such might be in with a shout.
No one is talking about the economy: Remainers because it isn't in recession and Leavers because it is so anaemic. But it is likely to be central to how the political debate develops.0 -
If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Betting post.
Gemma Atkinson is 23s on Betfair to win Strictly.
That price is so wrong, back her.
For the record, I'm also laying Alexandra Burke.
In your dreams!
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I'm surprised that the Conservatives still hold Hastings. I guess the Conservative vote in Rye and other outlying villages is so overwhelming that it enables them to just about hold the seat.Benpointer said:
I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.Dura_Ace said:
If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.MaxPB said:Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
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Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the oppositionBenpointer said:
Oh I do hope so!HYUFD said:
JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/9418026697017098260 -
Slow hand clap...
@AlbertoNardelli: Main impact of Davis remarks is that EU27 want *everything* that is agreed at every stage of the talks translated into a legal text before there can be proper progress in any next stage.0 -
The Courts themselves have complained about too many weak and badly prepared cases being brought. It's a symptom of lack of funding and yea it makes matters worse because then resources are burned up in inquiries, apologies and reviews etc.Nigelb said:
If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
Now I really must go, Sorry Morris, didn't get the Latin.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
What happened to those freshly painted red lines he was celebrating last week?0 -
I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.peter_from_putney said:
That's still quite a tall order -TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.0 -
At least one thing Ken Clarke agrees with the FPO on thenSean_F said:
I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.HYUFD said:Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-423746930 -
Ton up for Broad0
-
Gemma down to 17.5.
I PB moves markets.0 -
In my view much of this abuse has its roots in the attitudes of many left-wing activists, including some MPs who talk routinely and openly of 'Tory scum', 'murderers', etc. It certainly did not begin with Brextremism, ugly as that is.Nigelb said:
Nationalism, founded as it is in emotion rather than reason, can be a very ugly thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's making noises about it.david_herdson said:
To stand, she first needs either to become an MP before the contest begins, or for a change in the rules to make non-MP eligible to stand. She'd then need to win. That's not a 16/1 shot.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
Plus I can see a few voluntary by elections, politics far too poisonous these days.
Anna Soubry, one of the 11 Conservative MPs who defied government whips this week when the government suffered its first Commons defeat over Brexit, has received multiple messages saying she should be hanged as a traitor.
Messages received by Soubry’s office – usually seen first by her parliamentary staff – also feature abuse, with one Facebook message saying: “Go hang yourself slag.”
It follows death threats to Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general, who drew up the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that passed on Wednesday by 309 votes to 305, ensuring MPs must have a final vote on any Brexit deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit
Still, at least we are not yet Lithuania...
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-a-single-remark-stole-a-lithuanian-writers-livelihood0 -
There's an argument to be had about resources when complex cases are given to people too junior or inexperienced, due to funding cuts.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Courts themselves have complained about too many weak and badly prepared cases being brought. It's a symptom of lack of funding and yea it makes matters worse because then resources are burned up in inquiries, apologies and reviews etc.Nigelb said:
If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.
Now I really must go, Sorry Morris, didn't get the Latin.
But, this type of error is pretty basic.0 -
Why be forced to choose between cancer and fascism? You can have both!Sean_F said:
I noted that one of the conditions the FPO insisted on was repealing the smoking ban in bars and restaurants.HYUFD said:Sebastian Kurz agrees a deal with the Freedom Party to become Austria's next Chancellor
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-423746930 -
Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.
Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?0 -
Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow 1 seat majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/92653160 -
Great tips, David.
I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.0 -
Considering that the EU has a record of breaking promises that might not be to its advantage.Scott_P said:Slow hand clap...
@AlbertoNardelli: Main impact of Davis remarks is that EU27 want *everything* that is agreed at every stage of the talks translated into a legal text before there can be proper progress in any next stage.0 -
Around 8.45pmishMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.
Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?0 -
Mr. Punter, "Who selects the selectors?" a take on "Who guards the guards [themselves]?/Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"
Mr. Eagles, cheers. Is that tonight?
It's been a long time since I paid attention to SCD (long time members may recall I got screwed over by the BBC's Tom Chambers bullshit) - is there an elimination or suchlike, or is it just a case of the winner being picked from all the finalists? [Wondering about hedging possibilities].0 -
Nigel, I agree , it was the "Strictly Come Dancing " bit , would rather have my tackle removed with a broken bottle.Nigelb said:
There are those of us who would pay hard cash not to watch football, so the choice doesn't seem quite so absurd to me.malcolmg said:
Holy crap pass the service revolverTheScreamingEagles said:
I’m putting £50 on Spurs to win and Harry Kane FGS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I put a 100 on them at 5-4 yesterday as smith looked imperious then... the weather forecast is my main risk rather tham our players sadly...Sandpit said:
Right now I can see them declaring with five overs left tonight, with a target around 180 for England to avoid losing by an innings. That 1.55 on the convicts to win is now 1.36.Nigelb said:
Since they passed four hundred, England seem to have dtetected a hint of movement off the pitch. Not going to help our tired medium pacers, with the odd edge not even carrying, but does not bode well for our second innings.Sandpit said:A sensible set of end of year tips from Mr Herdson, following on from Ms Cyclefree’s good thread yesterday about everyone needing to turn down the political hyperbole a notch.
In other betting news, Australia are as long as 1.55 to win the third Test. They’re probably going to do it by an innings.
Bt sport covering both ashes and spurs v city.... we are so doomed later..
I was actually offered tickets to this match but I decided to stay at home and watch the final of Strictly.0 -
I don't think people in Rye think of themselves as an outlying village. But you are right. There is a solid Tory vote there and it will not be an easy seat for Labour even in a good year.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised that the Conservatives still hold Hastings. I guess the Conservative vote in Rye and other outlying villages is so overwhelming that it enables them to just about hold the seat.Benpointer said:
I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.Dura_Ace said:
If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.MaxPB said:Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.
0 -
5% swing to Labor though which would be enough to win them 20 seats in a general election. Turnbull is the walking dead. He might get ousted on a "save the furniture" strategy.HYUFD said:Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/92653160 -
Cuckoofelix said:
I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.peter_from_putney said:
That's still quite a tall order -TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.0 -
I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."Nigelb said:
If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.
Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?
[Apologies for ropey Latin].
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.0 -
Ah yes - that's a very good point! And quite a few Dems were no doubt pleased when Trump got the Republican nomination.HYUFD said:
Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the oppositionBenpointer said:
Oh I do hope so!HYUFD said:
JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
Even so, I can't see Little Lord Fauntleroy being an election winner for the Tories.
0 -
Not quite. The Coalition lost Bennelong in 2007 when Rudd won a Labor landslide however they won it back again in 2010 when Gillard only won enough seats for a minority Labor Government. The fact the Coalition have held Bennelong then suggests that the next general election in Australia could still be close albeit Labor are favouritesDura_Ace said:
5% swing to Labor though which would be enough to win them 20 seats in a general election. Turnbull is the walking dead. He might get ousted on a "save the furniture" strategy.HYUFD said:Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/92653160 -
I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.HYUFD said:2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.
The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.
The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.0 -
Not now maybe no, after 5 years of a Corbyn government who knows where Labour's poll rating would be?Benpointer said:
Ah yes - that's a very good point! And quite a few Dems were no doubt pleased when Trump got the Republican nomination.HYUFD said:
Before you get too excited many Tories were equally ecstatic when Labour picked Corbyn to be leader of the oppositionBenpointer said:
Oh I do hope so!HYUFD said:
JRM is now clearly the 'Prince across the water' for Tory hard Brexiteers and is setting himself up as the de facto leader of that wing within the party. I don't think he will have enough MP support to get to the final 2 this time to succeed May, though he may get close, however he is the likely next Tory leader of the opposition if and when the Tories lose power.TheScreamingEagles said:Called it yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/941802669701709826
Even so, I can't see Little Lord Fauntleroy being an election winner for the Tories.0 -
You used to say cuckoo to anyone who predicted the Tories would make net seat gains in 2017.malcolmg said:
Cuckoofelix said:
I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.peter_from_putney said:
That's still quite a tall order -TheScreamingEagles said:On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.
I’m backing her.
If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.
- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.
Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.
How’d that turn out ?0 -
"Found to be half-British" - that's weird. Most Australians have British heritage, and there's over a million Brits living there.HYUFD said:Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow 1 seat majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/92653160 -
Williamson is Steerpike made flesh.Casino_Royale said:Great tips, David.
I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.
If ever he had harboured a conscience in his tough narrow breast he had by now dug out and flung away the awkward thing — flung it so far away that were he ever to need it again he could never find it. High-shouldered to a degree little short of malformation, slender and adroit of limb and frame, his eyes close-set and the colour of dried blood, he is climbing the spiral staircase of the soul of Gormenghast, bound for some pinnacle of the itching fancy — some wild, invulnerable eyrie best known to himself; where he can watch the world spread out below him, and shake exultantly his clotted wings0
