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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal or no deal
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal or no deal
Ladbrokes have a market up on a few Brexit related markets, out of these three I’m quite keen to take the 6/4 on there being no Brexit deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019.
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A50 extension looks to me the most plausible get-out mechanism from here, so i wouldn't touch the 2nd referendum at 5/1.
We would be better off if the government was opening various deals at random.
To qualify as a deal it has to be agreed by the Uk and EU, but do all these steps have to be completed before the date to satisfy the bet? From the wording I would assume yes. So a deal secured before the date but ratified/confirmed afterwards is a 'no deal in time' outcome?
Oh.
I'm more comfortable betting on the exit date. Betting on Betfair's market on the Brexit date must be the best value bet out there at the moment. I topped up at 2.36 this morning - this must be something more like a 1/4 shot at present.
Not massively dissimiliar to will X* survive - the answer is generally they'll keep going.
X may or may not be in my avatar right now
£11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346
Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?
An even more bonkers one was effectively charge the university for council tax on student accommodation. I mean the uni already is more elitist than oxbridge, sticking another £3k on the cost of a room per year will really help.
My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
It's food prices,not Brexit,that's the sublect of my bus stop conversations,as well as the law and rules regarding the vapourisation of nicotine within bus shelters.I'm all Brexited out.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-food-prices-la-nina-coffee-cocoa-brexit-inflation
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/11/butter-prices-rise-to-record-high.html
The six suspects were identified as Syrian citizens aged between 20 and 28 who arrived in Germany as asylum-seekers between December 2014 and September 2015. Their names were withheld under strict German privacy laws.
The men, who are allegedly members of ISIS, are accused of 'having prepared an attack with weapons and explosives on a public target in Germany.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5103289/ISIS-plotters-held-Germany-market-attack-plan.html
I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
Other than that most credible forecasts simply had wealth foregone. Such as the famous £4,300 per household by 2030.
1. 0% chance of the economy benefiting (there simply isn't any mechanism)
2. 10% chance of little discernible effect, assuming a smooth transition to a favourable trade deal
3. 10% chance of a downturn comparable to that we experienced following the global financial crisis of 2007/8
4. 80% chance of a significant but not disastrous effect on growth compared with our peers - say between 1% and 2% less growth over several years.
My view now is not changed very much, except that I think we can rule out the second possibility now, and the chance of a really serious downturn is looking rather higher, given the lack of progress in the negotiations and the political chaos here.
If you factor in the Corbyn effect, which is a direct effect of the referendum result, probably now something like 35% scenario 3 and 65% scenario 4.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/932989059017912322
A reasonable idea for a bet but the time scale is a bit long for something that's quite short.
Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
The EU isn't the answer to any of those questions.
Remember before that what odds Cameron was when Howard stood down in 2005?
Your position is probably okay.
Have I got that right?
All together now:
"We want Queen Camilla!"
- The completion of the single market within the EU
- The implementation of zero-tariff trade for all least developed countries
- The creation of the WTO
- The signing of a range of FTAs to go deeper than the already liberalised multilateral trade environment (more than the USA)
It worked, and continues to work.
Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
You takes your choice, and you pays your money.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
Our government is entirely capable of countenancing said fuckwittery.
With the position of the US, where around half of all imports from LDCs are still subject to tariffs: https://www.un.org/ldcportal/united-states-imports-from-ldcs/
The day the nominations closed for the Labour leadership was probably PB’s most profitable day outside of a GE or referendum. My only regret is that I put a tenner on him at 100/1 and not my whole damn paycheck!
As with everything in the US, it is a place of two extremes. You get the utter garbage food and you get super high quality stuff.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.