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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first poll of November finds a tad of comfort for Mrs. May

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  • Yorkcity said:

    Totally agree.My father lives in a wealthy area of York hardly any new immigration into the area.However he always comments about his concern when he goes to visit my daughter s in London and Leeds.
    That’s another thing. A lot of those who complain about immigration always seem to live in areas where there are few immigrants.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Er?

    Stubbington (Fareham) result:

    LDEM: 55.2% (+32.4)
    CON: 35.8% (+6.1)
    UKIP: 5.4% (-37.9)
    LAB: 3.5% (-0.5)

    LDem GAIN from UKIP.
    I used to play cricket at Stubbington. I think it says a lot about the LD vote.
  • I'm sure Comrade Salmondski's People's Information and Political Insight Programme will be essential viewing.

    Mr Dancer

    George Galloway led the way with his "Sputnik" show
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    Pretty much spot on. At this point I'm hoping for the diagnosis of some kind of brain problem.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    That’s another thing. A lot of those who complain about immigration always seem to live in areas where there are few immigrants.
    Well I must be going against the tide.
  • That’s another thing. A lot of those who praise the virtues of immigration always seem to live in areas where there are few immigrants.
    Corrected it for you :)
  • Dr. Prasannan, I presume that indefatigable programme is ongoing?

    Ms. Apocalypse, that's a bit obvious, though. Places with migrants will have migrants answering such surveys, those who don't want non-British culture (whether of the different but lovely or different and barbaric variety) will likely have left, and those who don't mind change will have remained.
  • :+1:

    But the Corbynista wont hear of it. They've already started this morning on Hodges timeline, saying things like 'fake polls', when the campaign starts we'll put on 20 points etc etc
    This comment could just as easily have been made eight months ago, refererring to one of Hodges' boring rants then. And it was true - the twitter youths with pro wrestlers for profile pictures called it better than people paid handsomely to be experts on British politics. 'Eat the book' still makes me chuckle.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Those who have lived a little are fully aware that Corbyn will be a disaster compared to the bumbling May. Whilst things are relatively rosy with the economy Corbyn's attack lines seem rather toothless, he needs that Project Fear recession to hurry up.

    May is wise to keep Boris on board for now despite the polling, until he does something truly bad he's better kept inside the cabinet than potentially unleashing hell on the backbenches.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Alistair said:

    Pretty much spot on. At this point I'm hoping for the diagnosis of some kind of brain problem.
    Opik disease?
  • Anyone who thinks he's doing it for the cash hasn't much of a clue.
    Given the number of pensions he has that's hardly surprising.....
  • Corrected it for you :)
    Not really. Those who are pro-immigration tend to live in cities such as London where there are loads of immigrants. I live just outside of London, am pro-immigration, and meet immigrants on a daily/weekly basis.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    His issue with Corbyn goes beyond electability and the issues with anti-semitism. Hodges has a hardline preference for Blairism and is only willingly to support centrist Labour candidates. Much of his commentary on Corbyn isn’t all that different from his commentary on Ed M, despite one having a director of strategy and communications who is allegedly a Stalin sympathiser and the other working for New Labour.

    And John Rentoul’s recent tweet sums up exactly what I’m talking about re Blairites like Hodgeshttps://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/928910117906669569
    Yes, Jeremy Corbyn is all Gordon Brown’s and Ed Miliband’s fault. Give me a break. Say you what you like, but Gordon Brown and Ed M’s politics are perfectly legitimate and have a place in Labour. Blairites cannot complain about Corbynista intolerance and then express that same intolerance in relation to only being able to deal with pure Blairite centrism. Corbyn is a product of Blair, and of the inability of Labour centrists to not only compromise with the Soft Left but move on from New Labour and realise it is no longer represents a ‘modern’ vision of Britain.
    The Labour Party is in any case incapable of being the vehicle for such reform, in any meaningful or successful way. They are centralisers to their core.
  • Not really. Those who are pro-immigration tend to live in cities such as London where there are loads of immigrants. I live just outside of London, am pro-immigration, and meet immigrants on a daily/weekly basis.
    I was thinking in terms of people like Billy Bragg, who no longer lives anywhere near east London.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    If you have a English flag outside the house where I live,you probably have your Windows smashed in.

    What do you make of that ?
    Not good Tyke.As I keep saying it is easy to be Liberal about immigration in York as there hardly is any .However in many west Yorkshire areas there is in many cases self enforced apartheid .My wife comes from Keighley , where there is white schools and Asian schools ,both live in separate areas and never mix.Around Keighley where I know it is white flight if you can afford it to Skipton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    This comment could just as easily have been made eight months ago, refererring to one of Hodges' boring rants then. And it was true - the twitter youths with pro wrestlers for profile pictures called it better than people paid handsomely to be experts on British politics. 'Eat the book' still makes me chuckle.
    Corbyn still lost, most of his supporters expected him to win.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Sean_F said:

    The ward reverted to its type, a Con v Lib Dem marginal.
    ... with a 20% lead for the LibDems this time.
  • dyingswan said:

    YouGov comes as no surprise. Jeremy Corbyn is still a great asset to the Conservative party.Despite all the sneering on Sky News, BBC and Channel Four the electorate just want Mrs May to get on with it. They elected her only five months ago and though Brexit is a worry the far greater concern in the minds of the people is what would happen to the economy if an orthodox Marxist was Chancellor. The flight of capital and investment from the UK would be enormous.

    Ooh, McDonnell's been upgraded to an 'orthodox' Marxist now. Return of the Kautskyites.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited November 2017

    That’s another thing. A lot of those who complain about immigration always seem to live in areas where there are few immigrants.
    Turn it round,them who love poor mass immigration always seem to live in majority white middle class area's or on here living abroad.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Ooh, McDonnell's been upgraded to an 'orthodox' Marxist now. Return of the Kautskyites.
    You've got to admit, if you could pick a Shadow Chancellor while your party is on the ropes it would be someone out of touch and grating like McDonnell. A safer option like Starmer would be a real warning shot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Sean_F said:

    The ward reverted to its type, a Con v Lib Dem marginal.
    55% to 35% doesn't look very marginal. Especially with the winning party at 6% nationally.
  • Turn it round,them who love poor mass immigration always seen to live in majority white middle class area's or on here living abroad.
    Some of those who are most critical about immigration live in other countries.
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn still lost, most of his supporters expected him to win.

    Which explains why Corbyn supporters were so depressed after the election...

    Barely anybody expected him to win. Very few of his supporters expected Labour to do as well as they did. The result was a massive surprise, and a welcome one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Turn it round,them who love poor mass immigration always seem to live in majority white middle class area's or on here living abroad.
    But that's not really true, is it? People are most relaxed about it in London, and there is almost nowhere in London that fits your description.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited November 2017

    This says 32% and 35% - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/

    I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
    Ashcroft has LD voters 70% Remain while Labour voters were 63% Remain.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @IanB2

    Isn't something happening in poor white areas of london called white flight ?
  • Lord Ashcroft:

    More than six in ten, including half of Remainers and three quarters of Leavers, said they thought the EU was not really trying to get a good deal – “they want to punish the UK and stop other countries wanting to leave”.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/11/lord-ashcroft-voters-are-losing-confidence-that-a-good-brexit-deal-will-be-secured-for-britain.html
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2017
    Alistair said:

    Pretty much spot on. At this point I'm hoping for the diagnosis of some kind of brain problem.
    Maybe he will be elevated to the Lords? Lord HawHaw's title is currently vacant.... :D:D
  • HYUFD said:

    The fact you cannot even be bothered to vote for Vince Cable's LDs confirms diehard Remainers are defeated and all mouth and no trousers
    "Brexit is bad" is not a policy.

    Even before the referendum result I said that if Leave won, Remain supporters should leave the field for Leavers to take the helm. Leavers have made the complete balls-up of it that I expected, but that period has not yet come to an end.
  • HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft has LD voters 70% Remain while Labour voters were 63% Remain.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
    Whichever, the question is still the same- 30% or 32% seem high for a party that has so dissolved its identity in the EU. If 30% of UKIP voters went for Remain that would be odd, but the Ashcroft poll has 19/20 going for Leave.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    @IanB2

    Isn't something happening in poor white areas of london called white flight ?

    There is certainly ex-migration from London. But my anecdotal experience is that this is driven by the housing market - people with young families selling up because they need more space than they can ever afford in London, and older people cashing in their property equity as they move toward retirement. That these tend to be mostly white simply reflects the distribution of home ownership, rather than a comment on immigration.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    What is the benefit of saying something like that? It sounds like they know they can't so try to make a big deal that they can
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    HYUFD said:

    The fact you cannot even be bothered to vote for Vince Cable's LDs confirms diehard Remainers are defeated and all mouth and no trousers
    I was certainly defeated by Brexit and I prefer skirts so I guess you have me bang to rights!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn still lost, most of his supporters expected him to win.
    Most of his supporters think he did win!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Charles said:

    What is the benefit of saying something like that? It sounds like they know they can't so try to make a big deal that they can
    Indeed. Clearly ET didn't phone home before she gave that interview.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678

    If you have a English flag outside the house where I live,you probably have your Windows smashed in.

    What do you make of that ?
    I'm not too keen on Windows 10 but I don't actually smash the screen.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473
    kle4 said:

    There is nothing wrong with interpretation or even merely making a new version when the old one is still fine. A lot of people simply won't bother going out of their way to watch a really old version of something. Some new versions will be good, some bad, some fresh takes, some repetitive or even shot for shot.
    The trouble with a reinterpretation of a whodunnit as well known as this one is that you already know who did it!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Maybe he will be elevated to the Lords? Lord HawHaw's title is currently vacant.... :D:D
    Taking a show on RT has probably reduced his chances significantly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    IanB2 said:

    There is certainly ex-migration from London. But my anecdotal experience is that this is driven by the housing market - people with young families selling up because they need more space than they can ever afford in London, and older people cashing in their property equity as they move toward retirement. That these tend to be mostly white simply reflects the distribution of home ownership, rather than a comment on immigration.
    I think people aged 35+, starting families, find that the quality of life is simply a lot better outside London, unless they are very well off.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    Whichever, the question is still the same- 30% or 32% seem high for a party that has so dissolved its identity in the EU. If 30% of UKIP voters went for Remain that would be odd, but the Ashcroft poll has 19/20 going for Leave.
    Suspect they always had a protest vote element.
    Leave did well to present themselves as anti establishment.

    I’d suggest it also somewhat undermines the idea that Corbyn reduced Labour Remainers.
    If Clegg couldn’t get his own party past 70%...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IanB2 said:

    There is certainly ex-migration from London. But my anecdotal experience is that this is driven by the housing market - people with young families selling up because they need more space than they can ever afford in London, and older people cashing in their property equity as they move toward retirement. That these tend to be mostly white simply reflects the distribution of home ownership, rather than a comment on immigration.
    No wonder remain lost.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    edited November 2017
    Brom said:

    You've got to admit, if you could pick a Shadow Chancellor while your party is on the ropes it would be someone out of touch and grating like McDonnell. A safer option like Starmer would be a real warning shot.
    Eh, Starmer might appeal to the 'centrists of a certain age' who this website imagines decides elections. McDonnell's got other qualities, nerve and passion, and a willingness to talk about larger issues than minor technocratic tweaks within very narrow bounds.

    But he's not an 'orthodox Marxist' by any means. I was making the point that these terms are flung about by people who have absolutely no idea what they mean. It tickled me that it was so specific - not only a Marxist (whatever that is) but an orthodox Marxist (so not an Austro-Marxist then? Or a Legal Marxist? Or a Bolshevik?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited November 2017
    Sean_F said:

    I think people aged 35+, starting families, find that the quality of life is simply a lot better outside London, unless they are very well off.
    Certainly it is with a six figure sum in the bank from having traded a London flat for something bigger and cheaper surrounded by countryside.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    IanB2 said:

    Taking a show on RT has probably reduced his chances significantly.
    These days, at least he will escape William Joyce's fate.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    IanB2 said:

    Taking a show on RT has probably reduced his chances significantly.
    Doesn't Farage appear on Russia Today a fair bit too?
  • IanB2 said:

    Taking a show on RT has probably reduced his chances significantly.
    I'd imagine being a member of the SNP would reduce them to zero.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    This says 32% and 35% - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/

    I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
    Because a lot of voters are not as obsessed with Europe as the Tories think they are. Their vote is driven by other considerations.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    rkrkrk said:

    Suspect they always had a protest vote element.
    Leave did well to present themselves as anti establishment.

    I’d suggest it also somewhat undermines the idea that Corbyn reduced Labour Remainers.
    If Clegg couldn’t get his own party past 70%...
    Many ‘Liberals’ regard the idea of a somewhat protectionist EYU as anethema.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    IanB2 said:

    There is certainly ex-migration from London. But my anecdotal experience is that this is driven by the housing market - people with young families selling up because they need more space than they can ever afford in London, and older people cashing in their property equity as they move toward retirement. That these tend to be mostly white simply reflects the distribution of home ownership, rather than a comment on immigration.
    My anecdotal experience suggests the opposite. Many of the WWC customers I meet on a daily basis have moved away from London areas like Croydon and Streatham because they dislike the demographic changes intensely.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    These days, at least he will escape William Joyce's fate.

    Haw Haw.


    And he’s not Spanish (Catalan).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Breaking..small earthquake in Los Angeles
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    midwinter said:

    My anecdotal experience suggests the opposite. Many of the WWC customers I meet on a daily basis have moved away from London areas like Croydon and Streatham because they dislike the demographic changes intensely.
    Nevertheless polls of existing Londoners don't show huge concern about immigration, London voted remain, UKIP always polled very poorly here except in Havering.
  • "Brexit is bad" is not a policy.

    Even before the referendum result I said that if Leave won, Remain supporters should leave the field for Leavers to take the helm. Leavers have made the complete balls-up of it that I expected, but that period has not yet come to an end.
    "You never go full Remoaner!"
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless polls of existing Londoners don't show huge concern about immigration, London voted remain, UKIP always polled very poorly here except in Havering.
    Yes. I'm sure that's so. But then London has a lot more migrants than other areas.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Leslie Nielsen has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41927557

    RIP
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    edited November 2017

    Because a lot of voters are not as obsessed with Europe as the Tories think they are. Their vote is driven by other considerations.
    Definitely. But the issue of the referendum campaign was to convince people their main considerations would best be served by either Remaining or Leaving. I would have expected LD's to reach their supporters better on this.
  • Doesn't Farage appear on Russia Today a fair bit too?
    Also 37 Tory MPs & 50 Labs (incl. Corbyn) I believe.

    Unsurprisingly it's the Tories that have declared the largest remuneration from RT. Perhaps it all went to charidee.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    For those discussing immigration - I thought this paper looking at levels and changes was interesting:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379416300932

    "This research claims that ethnic change stimulates higher UKIP support while higher levels of established minorities predict lower UKIP support. A similar pattern characterises immigration attitudes in Britain.... white UKIP voters in minority-dense wards are no more likely to leave them, or to move to whiter wards, than their white liberal neighbours....

    This research also breaks new ground by suggesting that the threat effects of demographic change fade over time, possibly because local white residents become accustomed to immigrant minorities, are more likely to have positive contact with them, or come to perceive immigrant groups as having a legitimate place in society... These results suggest that if the rate of ethnic change declines in the West in the future, opposition to immigration and support for the populist right could similarly abate."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Dr. Prasannan, I presume that indefatigable programme is ongoing?

    Ms. Apocalypse, that's a bit obvious, though. Places with migrants will have migrants answering such surveys, those who don't want non-British culture (whether of the different but lovely or different and barbaric variety) will likely have left, and those who don't mind change will have remained.

    Morning, Mr.D.
    Did you notice Hamilton's interview - which suggests he isn't minded to help Bottas too much "Valtteri would want to achieve on his own merits..." ?

    I've fully hedged my Bottas position...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    Leslie Nielsen has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41927557

    RIP

    Has? Fake News.

    He died seven years ago.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    I'd imagine being a member of the SNP would reduce them to zero.
    He'd have a better career and would be more noticed as a regular host of HIGNFY (Merton and Hislop permitting, of course).

    A worthy successor to chat-show Charlie (Kennedy).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    I was certainly defeated by Brexit and I prefer skirts so I guess you have me bang to rights!
    In any case, I believe the saying is actually "all mouth and trousers"... but there again, it is HYUFD...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    If you have a English flag outside the house where I live,you probably have your Windows smashed in.

    What do you make of that ?
    You should move to Leicester. Flying English flags during football tournaments is common across the city here, including in predominantly Asian and Somali areas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Has? Fake News.

    He died seven years ago.
    I can't believe a comedian of his talent ever died...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Nigelb said:

    I can't believe a comedian of his talent ever died...
    For years, I've struggled to believe it myself.
  • You should move to Leicester. Flying English flags during football tournaments is common across the city here, including in predominantly Asian and Somali areas.
    Yes. Sport (and especially football -- sorry, MD) has done more to unite communities than politicians.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    Gordon Brown backing Jezza and John McDonnell.
    Is he just doing it to annoy Tony?

    Either way - the Labour party has clearly changed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    Pong said:

    For years, I've struggled to believe it myself.
    He was, however, notorious for corpsing...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    For years, I've struggled to believe it myself.
    Let us not forget his role in the very uncomedic and very excellent Forbidden Planet.

    Monsters! Monsters from the id!
  • Mr. B, it's in line with Mercedes' general approach, and 2nd or 3rd frankly doesn't matter too much.

    Meanwhile, a couple of interesting tweets from Tom Bradby just now.
    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/928928620286042112

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,473
    edited November 2017

    @IanB2

    Isn't something happening in poor white areas of london called white flight ?

    'White flight' is a horrible expression. I picture hordes of pot bellied shirtless football fans waddling their flabby bodies past lines of slim well dressed Mediterranians on the New kings road.
  • Nigelb said:

    I can't believe a comedian of his talent ever died...
    He’ll always be Buck Frobisher to me.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Gordon Brown backing Jezza and John McDonnell.
    Is he just doing it to annoy Tony?

    Either way - the Labour party has clearly changed.

    An unfortunate Freudian slip in the Indie's write up:

    'He had “articulated a view of a fairer society” by pinching the “for the money not the few” slogan first used by the Blair government, he noted.'
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    You should move to Leicester. Flying English flags during football tournaments is common across the city here, including in predominantly Asian and Somali areas.

    Including in predominantly Asian and Somalia areas.

    Leicester,more flight then ?
  • Mr. L, I have nothing against football, it just isn't my cup of tea.
  • Anorak said:

    Let us not forget his role in the very uncomedic and very excellent Forbidden Planet.

    Monsters! Monsters from the id!
    A pivotal moment in sci-fi history and based on a story by a 16th century Brummie.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    A pivotal moment in sci-fi history and based on a story by a 16th century Brummie.
    Tempestuous indeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Mr. B, it's in line with Mercedes' general approach, and 2nd or 3rd frankly doesn't matter too much...

    To certain punters it might matter a great deal...
  • Mr. B, not those who cunningly followed my brilliant 26 on Bottas to win (fifth the odds for top 3).

    And brilliantly ignored my various other pre-season tips, ahem.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Roger said:

    'White flight' is a horrible expression. I picture hordes of pot bellied shirtless football fans waddling their flabby bodies past lines of slim well dressed Mediterranians on the New kings road.
    Remain 0 - 1 leave.
  • The real danger of the #stopbrexit campaign is that the EU will concentrate on trying to persuade us not to leave rather than focusing on the leaving deal - resulting in a worse deal all round.

    Though if the EU put genuine control of FoM on the table (not "emergency brakes" etc.) in a "stay" offer I wouldn't care to speculate as to how that would play out.

    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/928928030931734528
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    The real danger of the #stopbrexit campaign is that the EU will concentrate on trying to persuade us not to leave rather than focusing on the leaving deal - resulting in a worse deal all round.

    Though if the EU put genuine control of FoM on the table (not "emergency brakes" etc.) in a "stay" offer I wouldn't care to speculate as to how that would play out.

    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/928928030931734528

    It's nothing to do with immigration, it's all about sovereignty.
  • The real danger of the #stopbrexit campaign is that the EU will concentrate on trying to persuade us not to leave rather than focusing on the leaving deal - resulting in a worse deal all round.

    Though if the EU put genuine control of FoM on the table (not "emergency brakes" etc.) in a "stay" offer I wouldn't care to speculate as to how that would play out.

    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/928928030931734528

    Perhaps if Leavers might have made the slightest effort to reach out to former Remain supporters, there wouldn't be such strong continuing hostility towards Brexit among those who voted Remain. This continuing attempt by many Leavers to portray those who are hostile to Brexit as the enemy within is unedifying and counterproductive.
  • Anorak said:

    Tempestuous indeed.
    but Wilful.

  • Though if the EU put genuine control of FoM on the table (not "emergency brakes" etc.) in a "stay" offer I wouldn't care to speculate as to how that would play out.

    And that is exactly what @tombradby is currently speculating on.

    I think we are collectively too proud as a nation to change our minds. It would be quite ironic if the EU gave us an offer that would have won the original referendum but was insufficient to change our position given the result.
  • Mr. Price, I agree (Bradby's speculation is somewhat similar to my own the other day when contemplating a potential remain result). However, would we have a second referendum?

    That's currently 6 on Ladbrokes. To be a full member at the start of 2020 is 4.5.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    And that is exactly what @tombradby is currently speculating on.

    I think we are collectively too proud as a nation to change our minds. It would be quite ironic if the EU gave us an offer that would have won the original referendum but was insufficient to change our position given the result.
    I think it highly unlikely the EU would make such an offer.
    It's very hard for them to agree to anything - and that would be undermining one of the four freedoms.

    I think it very likely that there will be a reconsider campaign.
    But they will only be successful in getting a vote, if large numbers of people have changed their minds.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Nigelb said:

    In any case, I believe the saying is actually "all mouth and trousers"... but there again, it is HYUFD...
    :D

    Maybe the Tory version derives from Public Schoolboy punishments where Sprockton-Minor has to sit in class in his underpants for not getting the School Bully's homework done in time. Ripping Yarns sort of stuff....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    Including in predominantly Asian and Somalia areas.

    Leicester,more flight then ?
    There are definite areas where particular ethnic groups live, the Belgrave road is very Hindu, the Evington rd quite Muslim, St Margaret's s rather Somali, but all areas are mixed. I buy my veg curry from a Hindu takeaway near the Evington mosque, and often stop by the wine shop next door. Leicester is pretty relaxed about these things. Next to my seats at the Football is an Asian family of 4, of whom the fifty year old mum is the most fanatical fan.

    I am genuinely sorry that things are not so congenial in Bradford. Getting to know the neighbours is the best way of breaking predjudices.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    Meanwhile in Alabama:

    “Take Joseph and Mary. Mary was a teenager and Joseph was an adult carpenter. They became parents of Jesus. There’s just nothing immoral or illegal here. Maybe just a little bit unusual.”

    — Alabama state auditor Jim Zeigler (R), quoted by the Washington Examiner, defending Alabama U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore (R), who is accused of initiating sexual relations with teenage girls.

    https://politicalwire.com/2017/11/09/extra-bonus-quote-day-100/
  • Perhaps if Leavers might have made the slightest effort to reach out to former Remain supporters, there wouldn't be such strong continuing hostility towards Brexit among those who voted Remain. This continuing attempt by many Leavers to portray those who are hostile to Brexit as the enemy within is unedifying and counterproductive.
    I don't see those seeking to stop Brexit as the enemy within: they of course have every right. I think that - assuming it fails - it isn't helpful to our overall negotiating position.

    Given the nature of the campaign and the practicalities of negotiation I think growing hostility from some Remainers is totally inevitable. The analogy is surely Leavers growing more and more hostile to the establishment whilst we stayed in the EU.

    The binary nature of the referendum makes things worse: it remains my hope that we can have a negotiated deal that isn't binary i.e. we retain a lot of what some people like about our membership.
  • I am not surprised TM has seen a modest improvement and am also pleased that I am not the only one wanting her to get on with the job, an accusation I have been on the receiving end a few times.

    TM has announced the leaving date at 11.00pm on the 29th March 2019 and the remain cause has gone into overdrive aided and abetted by a broadcast media that is wholly committed to the cause of stopping Brexit.

    Adam Boulton this morning has, with his usual smirk, rolled out in grave tone Lord Kerr’s accusation that TM is ignoring the ability to renege on A50, they have a report by that other Sky doom and gloom merchant Ed Conway from Europe saying how bad things are going to be with business, and of course that arch Europhile, Mark Stone reporting from the European Parliament on the lack of progress in talks. And that is without involving the most biased of them all Faisal Islam. What has happened to Sky News that they never attack the EU over their handling of the negotiations and their inability to act even handed.

    I watch Sky News most of the time but recently they have moved to the left and become the broadcast media for Juncker’s et al and it must be grating with a lot of voters who just want to get on with it. It would be ironic if Murdoch does close Sky News down though I would not want that to happen.

    I do wonder what will happen if this broadside of pro EU, reverse the decision, group manage to derail Brexit. The likely outcome will not be pretty, especially for those elite who have colluded both here and with the EU to thwart the democratic vote.
  • Mr. B, it's in line with Mercedes' general approach, and 2nd or 3rd frankly doesn't matter too much.

    Meanwhile, a couple of interesting tweets from Tom Bradby just now.
    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/928928620286042112

    Interesting. Brown is a better reader of political currents than people give him credit for.

    EU make an offer? Maybe the infamous brake on migration?
  • I don't see those seeking to stop Brexit as the enemy within: they of course have every right. I think that - assuming it fails - it isn't helpful to our overall negotiating position.

    Given the nature of the campaign and the practicalities of negotiation I think growing hostility from some Remainers is totally inevitable. The analogy is surely Leavers growing more and more hostile to the establishment whilst we stayed in the EU.

    The binary nature of the referendum makes things worse: it remains my hope that we can have a negotiated deal that isn't binary i.e. we retain a lot of what some people like about our membership.
    It's more likely that Britain will get the worst of all worlds: leaving the EU while retaining all the things that people dislike about membership.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I think it highly unlikely the EU would make such an offer.
    It's very hard for them to agree to anything - and that would be undermining one of the four freedoms.

    I think it very likely that there will be a reconsider campaign.
    But they will only be successful in getting a vote, if large numbers of people have changed their minds.

    I think people will only change their minds if the EU change their position. Expecting the UK to go "Oh this is all too difficult" is utterly unrealistic (not least because the EU's approach to the negotiation is part of what is making it difficult).
  • Not doing it myself, partly because of lack of Betfair funds but mostly because I think the odds will shift beneficially, but there's 6.5 (with boost) on Ladbrokes for another vote before the end of 2019, and the opposite is available for 1.25 or thereabouts on Betfair Exchange, so you could have, essentially, a free bet for a small return.
  • Pong said:

    Leslie Nielsen has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41927557

    RIP

    Shirley you must be joking
  • Mr. Borough, some months ago I thought the EU would offer what they thought enough to cover/provoke a second referendum (increased rebate by a billion or somesuch). This would tally with that sort of thing.
This discussion has been closed.