WRT sleaze, voters probably think they're all as bad as each other, so there's little impact on polling.
WRT Thamesfield, there was a decent swing to Labour, but the party was hoping to do far better than that, given the ward has one of the highest proportions of young professionals and EU nationals in London.
There a several elements in play here. Labour should be doing better, but several factors are not in the party's control.
First, it's undoubtedly true that Labour hasn't yet convinced uncommitted voters in significant numbers. That relates to point 2: people aren't really listening, except about Brexit, where Labour's muffled stance is not offending many but also not attracting many.
Second, while it's not quite true that any publicity is good publicity, no publicity is bad publicity. The impression of recent weeks has been that politics is all about May struggling desperately with an unruly crew, and nobody else reported saying much (and the LibDems and UKIP not reported as saying anything at all).
Third, people generally give governments a year or two before they start thinking seriously about chucking them out. We talk of mid-term blues; we don't normally talk of 6-month blues.
Finally, everything is currently seen through the Brexit optic. Most people are just suspending judgment till they see how it works out, though they are starting to be rather apprehensive about it.
I think there will be some sort of December interim deal, and that could give the Tories a lift. In the medium term, though, I think we'll see them in serious trouble.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Cable is actually trying to do many of the things you suggest, with a variety of speeches and policy announcements recently. But the LDs are trapped by their parliamentary insignificance and drowned out by all the attention being given to the scandals engulfing front-line politics.
They don't have much choice now other than to play the long game, bang on about the dangers of Brexit, and hope to regain some respect and attention as their predictions start to come true, as happened post-Iraq.
How can a party the same size as that letting May cling to power be deemed irrelevant? Sure, if May had got her 100+ majority they would be but with a minority government working hard to piss off as many of its own team as it can they should be players. But they're not. Cable was on R5 more often when he wasn't even an MP.
It's genuinely mysterious. Trying to ascertain what Labour's position on Brexit on any given day is the work of Sisyphus without the fun bits but the general direction is that the vote must be respected in a series of impossible ways. So why, if there is still all this apprehension about Brexit is the one party unequivocally committed to remaining sitting at 6%?
FPTP in our polarised country means the battle is Labour v Tory across most of England and Wales. An LD vote is a wasted vote. So why bother?
The Liberals got 20% in 1974 and at most successive elections the English third party vote cleared 20%, polarisation or no - even 2015 the combined LibDem and UKIP vote cleared this level. It is 2017 that was different.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
There a several elements in play here. Labour should be doing better, but several factors are not in the party's control.
First, it's undoubtedly true that Labour hasn't yet convinced uncommitted voters in significant numbers. That relates to point 2: people aren't really listening, except about Brexit, where Labour's muffled stance is not offending many but also not attracting many.
Second, while it's not quite true that any publicity is good publicity, no publicity is bad publicity. The impression of recent weeks has been that politics is all about May struggling desperately with an unruly crew, and nobody else reported saying much (and the LibDems and UKIP not reported as saying anything at all).
Third, people generally give governments a year or two before they start thinking seriously about chucking them out. We talk of mid-term blues; we don't normally talk of 6-month blues.
Finally, everything is currently seen through the Brexit optic. Most people are just suspending judgment till they see how it works out, though they are starting to be rather apprehensive about it.
I think there will be some sort of December interim deal, and that could give the Tories a lift. In the medium term, though, I think we'll see them in serious trouble.
Not sure about the December deal Nick; Telegraph claim an exclusive that Ireland are hardening their position on no trade talks until border fully sorted.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
Well yes, but that is an even longer time frame. I can see her taking over from Corbyn in the next 2-3 years and winning the next election against a party in self destruct mode. The risk was the Tories getting rid of the zombie for the next GE and inserting a new PM but that is starting to look a little less likely.
I see the guardian barrel scraping continues...A foreign ticket tout who bought a few 100 tickets via his isle of man company.
And then they have an article wondering why the mob aren't out on the streets calling for people's heads...Jeez I don't know...Because Queenie having £3k in brighthouse ain't much of a scandal?
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Cable is actually trying to do many of the things you suggest, with a variety of speeches and policy announcements recently. But the LDs are trapped by their parliamentary insignificance and drowned out by all the attention being given to the scandals engulfing front-line politics.
They don't have much choice now other than to play the long game, bang on about the dangers of Brexit, and hope to regain some respect and attention as their predictions start to come true, as happened post-Iraq.
How can a party the same size as that letting May cling to power be deemed irrelevant? Sure, if May had got her 100+ majority they would be but with a minority government working hard to piss off as many of its own team as it can they should be players. But they're not. Cable was on R5 more often when he wasn't even an MP.
It's genuinely mysterious. Trying to ascertain what Labour's position on Brexit on any given day is the work of Sisyphus without the fun bits but the general direction is that the vote must be respected in a series of impossible ways. So why, if there is still all this apprehension about Brexit is the one party unequivocally committed to remaining sitting at 6%?
FPTP in our polarised country means the battle is Labour v Tory across most of England and Wales. An LD vote is a wasted vote. So why bother?
The Liberals got 20% in 1974 and at most successive elections the English third party vote cleared 20%, polarisation or no - even 2015 the combined LibDem and UKIP vote cleared this level. It is 2017 that was different.
Because 2017 was the Brexit election. And Brexit is not going away. Not for many, many years. The LDs will revive if there is a far left Labour government. Not before.
Very good poll for May. Not only do most want her to stay on as PM she also leads Corbyn on that score and the man who was previously her main rival to be leader in the Tory Party, Boris, most of the public now think should resign.
The voting intention figure would give Labour 295 seats and Tories 283 on an election tomorrow, so almost neck and neck in seat terms and despite having an 'open goal' in the past fortnight Corbyn has failed to even match Ed Miliband' s 2012 poll lead for Labour, let alone Blair's pre 1997 poll lead.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
UKIP are a spent force. risible leadership.
OK, without checking - who can name this week's UKIP leader?
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
Ha Ha! Emily Thornberry barely matches the aspirations of Ed Miliband voters let alone New Labour voters
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
I think that is a good answer Mike. In Parliaments past the Lib Dems and their predecessors kept themselves in the public consciousness by having a superb by election machine that produced improbable results time after time. The paucity of by elections in the last 2 Parliaments has really not helped them.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
I think that is a good answer Mike. In Parliaments past the Lib Dems and their predecessors kept themselves in the public consciousness by having a superb by election machine that produced improbable results time after time. The paucity of by elections in the last 2 Parliaments has really not helped them.
Agreed. But I still find it amazing in the current climate they are not 3 - 4 x higher in the polls. I'm also surprised there hasn't been a small revival (say 5%) in UKIP bearing in mind the shambles of Brexit currently
F1: on that note, something to consider: Hulkenberg, 501 for pole each way (third the odds for top 2) on Betfair Sportsbook.
Obviously, very unlikely. But not quite as unlikely as when he got pole for Williams several years ago in wet and rapidly drying conditions and was seconds faster than those in much better cars.
I've stuck a tiny sum on.
Yes, if it might be wet in qualifying then a few pennies on the FIs, Williamses and Alonso to win Q3 could be a good payday.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
My nephew is a young Brexiteer. He likes to wind his elders and betters up. It’s quite funny. He’s good at it and very smart. I mostly nod my head. That usually does the trick. Nothing in politics iscworth a family fall-out.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
TBH I’m not sure what sort of immigration is the problem. Are the East Europeans the straw which broke the camel’s back? After all, immigration from the Commonwealth won’t be affected. Or is there something not being said.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
Grandpa Fox too. He cannot understand his children and grandchildren and they cannot understand him. The generation gap seems wider than it was in the Sixties.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
It’s the reason why I think Brexit has to happen. Once people get what they want, and see that it isn’t the panacea to all the problems in the country, then we’ll be able to move forward.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
If Jezza goes under the proverbial bus (or more likely in his case, drops a manhole cover on himself), then surely Thornberry would be leader?
The budget is due in less than a fortnight. That is the next known unknown.
The government has no room to maneuver, no majority and a desperate need to increase spending in many areas to compete with labour now they cannot call upon competence to beg indulgence for austerity. The end result of such competing pressures will be an ideologically incoherent mess of cuts vs pork, and odds are very high it will go down poorly. Particularly when any minor issues will be amplified given other crises, and given there's been obvious internal pressure to sack Hammond for most of the year.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
Except those voters if they are that hardliner put immigration and sovereignty above the economy and May is aiming for a FTA anyway.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
It’s the reason why I think Brexit has to happen. Once people get what they want, and see that it isn’t the panacea to all the problems in the country, then we’ll be able to move forward.
Well hopefully, although more likely well find another issue. The public don't blame themselves when things go wrong.
Mr. Sandpit, unfortunately no odds were available on Alonso.
I prefer Hulkenberg to Sainz here because Hulkenberg's had some very strong performances at Brazil (also 2012 for Force India, he should've won it but got a harsh penalty).
Not so sure about Williams, though. Their downforce is not great.
The awfulness of each of the two main parties is shoring up the support of the other. Those desperate to see the back of the Conservatives have only one practical option; likewise those desperate to keep Jeremy Corbyn out.
Yep, that’s about the sum of it. First past the post is all about who you dislike less. When it ceases to produce strong, stable governments, it becomes increasingly damaging to national interests - but, crucially, not to party ones.
Right now I find it very hard to imagine voting at the next election.
You must always vote. You may be dying with a hand cut off but you can still throw the Emperor down the engineering shaft.
There, in a nut-shell, the Referendum result. It was about the huge unease at not being able to throw Jean-Claude Juncker down the engineering shaft.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
That impregnable firewall was there in the spring. It didn't work and wasn't impregnable.
More Goldilocks Polling. Government kept on the tightest of leashes and certainly won't risk another early election stunt on those numbers. Labour not doing better because they've don't deserve to and with those numbers the government won't disintegrate. The electorate knows what it's doing and it's working.
In addition both parties have found stasis sweet spots re Brexit. The Tories as the party of Brexit and Labour as the party of not blocking Brexit but softening it enough to pull in Remainers. Both of these formulations seem stable for now. As for minor parties well who other than their cores needs them. The two big parties have acquired binary sweet spots on either side of the binary issue dividing the nation.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
It does lead to the question: when Brexit happens in March 2019, what will be there to keep it pulling in the Remainers? "If you thought Brexit was the UK taking a monstrous risk, then you'll love our New Venezuela economic manifesto...."
Remainers are going to vote Anything but Tory, and that means mostly Labour. The Tories have lostt that demographic for a generation.
+1.
The figures from that Fareham by-election last night suggest that former UKIP supporters switched straight to LibDem. Some will have done, having been anti-Tories from the start. But the greater switches were probably UKIP->Tory and Tory->LibDem.
The Tories are acquiring a new demographic, older, less educated and later in the census alphabet than their traditional core (edit/ OK, not so much older). But I don't see that the party is yet well equipped to represent these people, particularly on economic issues.
The Tories also comfortably held a seat in Wandsworth last night showing the AB and C2, upper middle class and skilled working class Tory coalition of June is holding against Corbyn.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
TBH I’m not sure what sort of immigration is the problem. Are the East Europeans the straw which broke the camel’s back? After all, immigration from the Commonwealth won’t be affected. Or is there something not being said.
I get the feeling that this country has a collective breakdown every generation over the latest set of immigrants which come to the country. It happened with my grandparents (from the Caribbean), it happened with Ugandan Asians, and now it’s happening with Eastern Europeans and other groups of immigrants.
Those from Australia and New Zealand don’t tend to be seen as ‘immigrants’ in the same way the above mentioned groups are.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
I think that is a good answer Mike. In Parliaments past the Lib Dems and their predecessors kept themselves in the public consciousness by having a superb by election machine that produced improbable results time after time. The paucity of by elections in the last 2 Parliaments has really not helped them.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
I think that is a good answer Mike. In Parliaments past the Lib Dems and their predecessors kept themselves in the public consciousness by having a superb by election machine that produced improbable results time after time. The paucity of by elections in the last 2 Parliaments has really not helped them.
Agreed. But I still find it amazing in the current climate they are not 3 - 4 x higher in the polls. I'm also surprised there hasn't been a small revival (say 5%) in UKIP bearing in mind the shambles of Brexit currently
Because on the face of it the government are going to see it through, and UKIP have been quiet about it up until now.
If the perception changes to the government u-turning on Brexit then I’d expect to see Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance.
The awfulness of each of the two main parties is shoring up the support of the other. Those desperate to see the back of the Conservatives have only one practical option; likewise those desperate to keep Jeremy Corbyn out.
Yep, that’s about the sum of it. First past the post is all about who you dislike less. When it ceases to produce strong, stable governments, it becomes increasingly damaging to national interests - but, crucially, not to party ones.
Right now I find it very hard to imagine voting at the next election.
The fact you cannot even be bothered to vote for Vince Cable's LDs confirms diehard Remainers are defeated and all mouth and no trousers
Very good poll for May. Not only do most want her to stay on as PM she also leads Corbyn on that score and the man who was previously her main rival to be leader in the Tory Party, Boris, most of the public now think should resign.
The voting intention figure would give Labour 295 seats and Tories 283 on an election tomorrow, so almost neck and neck in seat terms and despite having an 'open goal' in the past fortnight Corbyn has failed to even match Ed Miliband' s 2012 poll lead for Labour, let alone Blair's pre 1997 poll lead.
It's within the margin of error on all questions for polls which were seen as disastrous for May - and I for one have no idea if the polling companies have got any more accurate since screwing it up so royally previously.
Let's repeat 2017, point to the polls to show Corbyn's ceiling (as Nick Cohen said: think of a number then halve it), convince ourselves of various nonsense narratives about the country on the back of the polling 'evidence' and be terribly surprised the day after. As we have for the elections and referendums of each of the last three years. Accurate polling would make politics boring tbh.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My father and brother are fervently anti-Brexit. My mother and I support it, my sister doesn't care.
The first lesson that politicians need to learn is arithmetic. The second is not sneering at people who fly flags....
Well, I suppose they could, if the Labour MPs stopped trooping off to vote inthe Conservative lobbies.
But really the people who could bring down the government are the DUP MPs - and they will, just as soon as they realise they are on to a hiding with their own electors.
Another powerful factor is the financial interests in the City of London. For some reason they don`t seem to be very clued up on the disaster that is awaiting us as the Conservatives continue to wreck the economy.
A third factor is Conservative infighting and waywardness. I read the other day that a group of very new Tory MPs is actually ordering Mrs May to clear away the dead wood in her Cabinet.
This useless government will fall in the near future, I am sure, but the deluded Labour Party will have very little to do with it.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
Prime Minister Emily Thornberry.
Put yourself on tape saying that. Then watch it back 100 times - and digest how much of a mess Labour is in, when Emily Thornberry is thought to be the answer to its woes.
PS Was at the Murder on the Orient Express premiere last week. A monumental waste of effort. Did nobody ask "er...why do we need this?" ?? Well, after her efforts this spring, maybe Theresa May might have.
MM. I asked myself the same question. All I could come up with was that Kenneth Branah's history in theatre tells him there is nothing wrong with a reinterpretation or several. Not that there was much reinterpreting here. He has history of course. Remember Frankenstein Sleuth Cinderella and several Shakespeare plays? A pity really because apart from the story there was a lot to like!
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
Ha Ha! Emily Thornberry barely matches the aspirations of Ed Miliband voters let alone New Labour voters
Currently Emily Thornberry seems to me a real possibility for leader.I do not know how much she wants it.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
If Jezza goes under the proverbial bus (or more likely in his case, drops a manhole cover on himself), then surely Thornberry would be leader?
The key question for next PM betting is will Theresa May fall before the next election?
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My father and brother are fervently anti-Brexit. My mother and I support it, my sister doesn't care.
Re your sister; my grandma’s the same. She doesn’t care, she didn’t vote in the Referendum.
Interesting reaction from the Zoomers, but nobody has pointed out the potential upside.
If he has his own shows on RT and LBC, is it just possible the BBC will find less airtime for him?
Some politicians get addicted to the exposure they have been given, and are unable to retire gracefully.
Indeed, though some get their addiction fed more easily than others.
Big Gord getting some top quality, self exculpatory gear from the state broadcaster at this very moment.
It really doesn’t look good for Alex to take a sackful of Roubles though, does it?
I’ve always disagreed with him but had a grudging respect for what he did for his party and the wider independence movement - but now he comes across as a traitor to his own cause, especially given the context of the wider issues about Russia and politics at the moment.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
They did round my way. For some time the town was strongly ld in a sea of blue shires, and they worked the area hard in Genera l Elections and locals, but i had very little from remain in the ref. Day of the vote Leave had several groups in the town centre and young people knocking on doors at 5pm to encourage voting nothing from remain.
Come the next locals they put in huge effort again but lose several seats up tories who told me they didn't even try much. So perhaps there was a sea change locally though.
Ms. Apocalypse, there's something in that, but the scale of recent migration is higher by a huge degree, levels of integration are lower, and political commitment to the ideology of multi-culturalism and cultural sensitivity led to the authorities doing nothing about cases like Rotherham for years. *That*, I suspect, is the critical difference.
People tend to focus on numbers and, secondarily, nationalities, but how migrants integrate is perhaps even more important. And a large part of that is down to the host community, which has done little in many cases to actually stand up for British values. Unless the political mainstream get a grip on this, there's a credible path for a reactionary far right movement to rise in politics.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
Only 30% of LD voters voted Leave compared to 37% of Labour voters
Mrs May must wake up every morning and thank the lord for Jeremy Corbyn.
How Labour aren't 15 points up right now is a mystery. Given the press she is getting the fact that voters still believe she would make a better PM than Corbyn tells you all you really need to know.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
If Jezza goes under the proverbial bus (or more likely in his case, drops a manhole cover on himself), then surely Thornberry would be leader?
The key question for next PM betting is will Theresa May fall before the next election?
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My dad is similar. Started voting for Labour when Liverpool was run by Militant, drifted away under New Labour, ended up with UKIP. Praised Enoch Powell, Tony Benn and John Smith. Doesn't see any change in his politics or bother about left, right, centre. Mostly wants to give the stuck up politicos a big kick.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
Grandpa Fox too. He cannot understand his children and grandchildren and they cannot understand him. The generation gap seems wider than it was in the Sixties.
If it’s any consol;ation re the oldest(?) generation I was at a Retired Pharmacists meeting this week; the speaker was fervently Remain and there were no hostile questions, or remarks afterwards. Round me at least everyone (all former Big Pharma or Academia employees by chance) was a convinced Remainer, horrified at the prospect.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
Well yes, but that is an even longer time frame. I can see her taking over from Corbyn in the next 2-3 years and winning the next election against a party in self destruct mode. The risk was the Tories getting rid of the zombie for the next GE and inserting a new PM but that is starting to look a little less likely.
May is going eventually, both Tory MPs and members think that but probably only in a few years now and most likely replaced by David Davis.
If you read it in context it is clear that she means the circumstances to bring down the government could arise over the next few weeks, not that it is the power of the Labour Party to bring down the government at will.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
Prime Minister Emily Thornberry.
Put yourself on tape saying that. Then watch it back 100 times - and digest how much of a mess Labour is in, when Emily Thornberry is thought to be the answer to its woes.
PS Was at the Murder on the Orient Express premiere last week. A monumental waste of effort. Did nobody ask "er...why do we need this?" ?? Well, after her efforts this spring, maybe Theresa May might have.
MM. I asked myself the same question. All I could come up with was that Kenneth Branah's history in theatre tells him there is nothing wrong with a reinterpretation or several. Not that there was much reinterpreting here. He has history of course. Remember Frankenstein Sleuth Cinderella and several Shakespeare plays? A pity really because apart from the story there was a lot to like!
There is nothing wrong with interpretation or even merely making a new version when the old one is still fine. A lot of people simply won't bother going out of their way to watch a really old version of something. Some new versions will be good, some bad, some fresh takes, some repetitive or even shot for shot.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
That impregnable firewall was there in the spring. It didn't work and wasn't impregnable.
More Goldilocks Polling. Government kept on the tightest of leashes and certainly won't risk another early election stunt on those numbers. Labour not doing better because they've don't deserve to and with those numbers the government won't disintegrate. The electorate knows what it's doing and it's working.
In addition both parties have found stasis sweet spots re Brexit. The Tories as the party of Brexit and Labour as the party of not blocking Brexit but softening it enough to pull in Remainers. Both of these formulations seem stable for now. As for minor parties well who other than their cores needs them. The two big parties have acquired binary sweet spots on either side of the binary issue dividing the nation.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
It does lead to the question: when Brexit happens in March 2019, what will be there to keep it pulling in the Remainers? "If you thought Brexit was the UK taking a monstrous risk, then you'll love our New Venezuela economic manifesto...."
Remainers are going to vote Anything but Tory, and that means mostly Labour. The Tories have lostt that demographic for a generation.
I'm sure you're right there which is why they could seal the deal with a REAL Remainer like Thornberry or Chuka.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Like we waited for the 2017 Maidenhead by-election?
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My father and brother are fervently anti-Brexit. My mother and I support it, my sister doesn't care.
Re your sister; my grandma’s the same. She doesn’t care, she didn’t vote in the Referendum.
My daughter did not vote or care about the referendum .However was determined to go and vote at the GE in June.
I don't normally like long range political bets because I am far too likely to forget where I made them etc but Emily Thornberry as next PM is starting to tempt me.
Her chances of future PM are significantly higher than of next PM.
Well yes, but that is an even longer time frame. I can see her taking over from Corbyn in the next 2-3 years and winning the next election against a party in self destruct mode. The risk was the Tories getting rid of the zombie for the next GE and inserting a new PM but that is starting to look a little less likely.
May is going eventually, both Tory MPs and members think that but probably only in a few years now and most likely replaced by David Davis.
Exactly. Even if you think ET is destined for the top, betting on her as next PM is a very long shot, given the unlikelihood (impossibility?) of May fighting another GE.
The first lesson that politicians need to learn is arithmetic.
The second is not sneering at people who fly flags....
IIRC she didn’t sneer; simply commented.
Her follow ups defending herself didn't help. Balance of probabilities I'd call it a sneer, but it wasn't sacking worthy.
Quite. it takes more than a "gaffe" to finish a career - just one tweet or bacon sandwich or Sheffield rally is probably neither here nor there. Priti didn't have just the one fateful meeting, she had a dozen that we know of, and lied about it, and went to Golan. And if she were back in the game in 3 or 4 years it wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever.
And I suspect a fair whack of the non-toff public probably quietly think "wankah!" to themselves when they see the St George flag thing.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
That impregnable firewall was there in the spring. It didn't work and wasn't impregnable.
More Goldilocks Polling. Government kept on the tightest of leashes and certainly won't risk another early election stunt on those numbers. Labour not doing better because they've don't deserve to and with those numbers the government won't disintegrate. The electorate knows what it's doing and it's working.
In addition both parties have found stasis sweet spots re Brexit. The Tories as the party of Brexit and Labour as the party of not blocking Brexit but softening it enough to pull in Remainers. Both of these formulations seem stable for now. As for minor parties well who other than their cores needs them. The two big parties have acquired binary sweet spots on either side of the binary issue dividing the nation.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
It does lead to the question: when Brexit happens in March 2019, what will be there to keep it pulling in the Remainers? "If you thought Brexit was the UK taking a monstrous risk, then you'll love our New Venezuela economic manifesto...."
Remainers are going to vote Anything but Tory, and that means mostly Labour. The Tories have lostt that demographic for a generation.
I'm sure you're right there which is why they could seal the deal with a REAL Remainer like Thornberry or Chuka.
Rather like the Labour supporters queuing up to suggest the Tories go with Jacob Rees-Mogg, there will be thousands of Conservatives very pleased indeed to see Thornberry or Umunna as Labour leader.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
Only 30% of LD voters voted Leave compared to 37% of Labour voters
I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My dad is similar. Started voting for Labour when Liverpool was run by Militant, drifted away under New Labour, ended up with UKIP. Praised Enoch Powell, Tony Benn and John Smith. Doesn't see any change in his politics or bother about left, right, centre. Mostly wants to give the stuck up politicos a big kick.
Weirdly enough, my dad likes Corbyn (although he wouldn’t vote for him) and hates Margaret Thatcher and blames her for pretty much everything as well.
Mrs May must wake up every morning and thank the lord for Jeremy Corbyn.
How Labour aren't 15 points up right now is a mystery. Given the press she is getting the fact that voters still believe she would make a better PM than Corbyn tells you all you really need to know.
But the Corbynista wont hear of it. They've already started this morning on Hodges timeline, saying things like 'fake polls', when the campaign starts we'll put on 20 points etc etc
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
Only 30% of LD voters voted Leave compared to 37% of Labour voters
I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
A chunk of Lib Dem support comes from the kind of person who moans about everything and sees them as the 'none of the above' option. These people are likely to be leavers. They'll also probably be the first to complain about the downsides of Brexit.
Interesting reaction from the Zoomers, but nobody has pointed out the potential upside.
If he has his own shows on RT and LBC, is it just possible the BBC will find less airtime for him?
Some politicians get addicted to the exposure they have been given, and are unable to retire gracefully.
Indeed, though some get their addiction fed more easily than others.
Big Gord getting some top quality, self exculpatory gear from the state broadcaster at this very moment.
It really doesn’t look good for Alex to take a sackful of Roubles though, does it?
I’ve always disagreed with him but had a grudging respect for what he did for his party and the wider independence movement - but now he comes across as a traitor to his own cause, especially given the context of the wider issues about Russia and politics at the moment.
I can only congratulate you (& so many others) on your reticence on hitherto revealing your grudging respect for Salmond, and for now courageously admitting he has a reputation to lose. Who knew there was much admiration for Eck?
Anyone who thinks he's doing it for the cash hasn't much of a clue.
I have the price of a cup of coffee waged on Thornberry being next PM at 60. But I wont be adding to that.
I think the same about Hunt = next Tory leader @51.
But the mechanism by which Thornberry mounts a Remainer coup and sweeps to power is a little uncertain, given that her valued colleague is stubbornly in power (and is 7-8 years younger than another leftie, Bernie Sanders).
@Scott_P how have SNP supporters reacted (I actually don’t know what they think about this)? I’d imagine they are defending this though, sadly. I’m always bothered when I see British political figures (especially) on RT.
The rank and file are defending him to the hilt, and the leadership are pointedly not criticising him in cases it pisses of the membership
Interesting reaction from the Zoomers, but nobody has pointed out the potential upside.
If he has his own shows on RT and LBC, is it just possible the BBC will find less airtime for him?
Some politicians get addicted to the exposure they have been given, and are unable to retire gracefully.
Indeed, though some get their addiction fed more easily than others.
Big Gord getting some top quality, self exculpatory gear from the state broadcaster at this very moment.
It really doesn’t look good for Alex to take a sackful of Roubles though, does it?
I’ve always disagreed with him but had a grudging respect for what he did for his party and the wider independence movement - but now he comes across as a traitor to his own cause, especially given the context of the wider issues about Russia and politics at the moment.
Yes, his actions taints the whole independence movement by association.
He can never speak at a SNP conference again - the negative publicity would be astronomical.
Hodges was a relatively interesting commentator when Ed M was leader. But since May 2015 he’s gone a bit haywire. I get the feeling that for him it’s full on Blairism or bust. He can’t make any compromises with those more to the left of him at all.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
My eldest granddaughter, who is very interested in Current Affairs has a Grandad who belives that the DM is Holy Writ and a Grandpa who regards it as the Voice of Satan. She loves her Grandad but doesn’t want to dsicsuss anything other than family matters with him; finds it much easier to do so with me! Although we don’t always agree!!
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
My dad is similar. Started voting for Labour when Liverpool was run by Militant, drifted away under New Labour, ended up with UKIP. Praised Enoch Powell, Tony Benn and John Smith. Doesn't see any change in his politics or bother about left, right, centre. Mostly wants to give the stuck up politicos a big kick.
Weirdly enough, my dad likes Corbyn (although he wouldn’t vote for him) and hates Margaret Thatcher and blames her for pretty much everything as well.
Strange as it may seem, your father is a centrist. Like many voters, he adopts a mix of right and left wing views, and admires a mix of right and left wing politicians.
Hodges was a relatively interesting commentator when Ed M was leader. But since May 2015 he’s gone a bit haywire. I get the feeling that for him it’s full on Blairism or bust. He can’t make any compromises with those more to the left of him at all.
He is partly against Corbyn because he doesn't believe he can win, as far as I can see. But I'd say the main reason these days is the party attitude to anti-semitism.
The only 3 point lead isn't just driven by Corbyn. It's driven by Brexit loons - hence May's desire to hurl Britain over the cliff to retain their votes. Once we are hurled off and the economy tanks those voters will go back to UKIP - the failure to deliver the Promised Land obviously the Tories fault. So they'll go back to a UKIP party probably led on 2019 by Robert Kilroy-Silk
My dad is a Brexiteer, he’ll never admit he made a mistake by voting Leave. He wants the hardest Brexit possible, and sees Europe and Europeans as ‘bad’.
My dad is similar , but for him it is immigration and taking back control. I keep telling him reading the Daily Mail everyday and watching Sky news constantly is bad for his health.
My dad is also big on limiting immigration. It’s as if he thinks that if there were no immigrants from Europe, that everything would be fine and dandy in the country. Although my dad doesn’t read the DM and watch Sky News (that’s my grandad who, is also a Brexiteer). My grandad reads The Sun as well!
This seems a reasonable summary of quite a few people I spoke to whilst campaigning for Remain last year. Immigration is the country's No.1 problem, they say, and so get rid of that and we are well on our way again.
TBH I’m not sure what sort of immigration is the problem. Are the East Europeans the straw which broke the camel’s back? After all, immigration from the Commonwealth won’t be affected. Or is there something not being said.
I get the feeling that this country has a collective breakdown every generation over the latest set of immigrants which come to the country. It happened with my grandparents (from the Caribbean), it happened with Ugandan Asians, and now it’s happening with Eastern Europeans and other groups of immigrants.
Those from Australia and New Zealand don’t tend to be seen as ‘immigrants’ in the same way the above mentioned groups are.
Totally agree.My father lives in a wealthy area of York hardly any new immigration into the area.However he always comments about his concern when he goes to visit my daughter s in London and Leeds.
What remains a mystery is the truly appalling polling of the Lib Dems. We are constantly told that both the main parties are lurching towards the extremes in an incompetent way and that more than 40% of the population still oppose Brexit, something supported by both the main parties, with different degrees of enthusiasm.
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
Wait for the 2018 Maidenhead by-eletion
Did anyone ever get to the bottom of why only 68% of Lib Dem voters went for Remain, compared to 65% of Labour voters? Did the Lib Dems just neglect their voters thinking they must be on board anyway?
Only 30% of LD voters voted Leave compared to 37% of Labour voters
I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
Partly that LD support is (was) high in areas if the country that traditionally lean strongly to leave, like many rural areas including the West Country
The first lesson that politicians need to learn is arithmetic. The second is not sneering at people who fly flags....
Well, I suppose they could, if the Labour MPs stopped trooping off to vote inthe Conservative lobbies.
But really the people who could bring down the government are the DUP MPs - and they will, just as soon as they realise they are on to a hiding with their own electors.
Another powerful factor is the financial interests in the City of London. For some reason they don`t seem to be very clued up on the disaster that is awaiting us as the Conservatives continue to wreck the economy.
A third factor is Conservative infighting and waywardness. I read the other day that a group of very new Tory MPs is actually ordering Mrs May to clear away the dead wood in her Cabinet.
This useless government will fall in the near future, I am sure, but the deluded Labour Party will have very little to do with it.
Mrs May's latest 'cunning plan' of forcing MPs to a vote on leaving the EU in 2019 before they start on the detail of the Brexit bill could very easily prove counter-productive, if it unites and forces the rebels to show their hand.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
That impregnable firewall was there in the spring. It didn't work and wasn't impregnable.
More Goldilocks Polling. Government kept on the tightest of leashes and certainly won't risk another early election stunt on those numbers. Labour not doing better because they've don't deserve to and with those numbers the government won't disintegrate. The electorate knows what it's doing and it's working.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
It does lead to the question: when Brexit happens in March 2019, what will be there to keep it pulling in the Remainers? "If you thought Brexit was the UK taking a monstrous risk, then you'll love our New Venezuela economic manifesto...."
Remainers are going to vote Anything but Tory, and that means mostly Labour. The Tories have lostt that demographic for a generation.
+1.
The figures from that Fareham by-election last night suggest that former UKIP supporters switched straight to LibDem. Some will have done, having been anti-Tories from the start. But the greater switches were probably UKIP->Tory and Tory->LibDem.
The Tories are acquiring a new demographic, older, less educated and later in the census alphabet than their traditional core (edit/ OK, not so much older). But I don't see that the party is yet well equipped to represent these people, particularly on economic issues.
I used to live in Stubbington, Fareham. The story is a little complicated. The UKIP councillor was a previous Tory and switched to UKIP, he was even spoken of as a future leader of UKIP (although wren't they all?). He later switched back to Tory while still a councillor. He recently resigned causing the by-election. So although it's officially a LibDem gain from UKIP, it was really a LibDem gain from Tory.
This is from the victorious LibDem's website: "The UKIP councillor who replaced Jim switched parties to the Conservatives last year, then resigned suddenly from the Council halfway through his term of office as Deputy Mayor."
Labour voters aren't like Tory ones who will vote for a donkey wearing the right rosette. Think Sir Alec Douglas-Home IDS Michael Howard John Major William Hague etc etc. Labour voters want Labour values but they also want a competent government and too many dont believe Corbyn and team wll proide one.
His values and foreign policy are a lot of fun in a Che Guavara sort of way but his shadow cabinet is stuffed with semi illiterates and with his famed lack of organisational ability they will be completely dysfunctional.
Too many Labour voters understand this and just wont buy it.....
Labour voters aren't like Tory ones who will vote for a donkey wearing the right rosette. Think Sir Alec Douglas-Home IDS Michael Howard John Major William Hague etc etc. Labour voters want Labour values but they also want a competent government and too many dont believe Corbyn and team wll proide one.
His values and foreign policy are a lot of fun in a Che Guavara sort of way but his shadow cabinet is stuffed with semi illiterates and with his famed lack of organisational ability they will be completely dysfunctional.
Too many Labour voters understand this and just wont buy it.....
Corbyn CANNOT win a working majority.
There is no cannot under our capricious electoral system. Labour could easily win with fewer votes than last time if the Tories happened to lose votes faster.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
Ha Ha! Emily Thornberry barely matches the aspirations of Ed Miliband voters let alone New Labour voters
Currently Emily Thornberry seems to me a real possibility for leader.I do not know how much she wants it.
As a Tory I would rather face Thornberry than Corbyn.
She both fails to inspire leftwingers like Corbyn while failing to appeal to swing voters as Blair did either.
Theresa May has an impregnable firewall while Corbyn is in charge. It's time Labour stopped patting itself on the back and addressed this. There's nothing they can do in policy terms because everyone knows what a Corbyn government will look like and it scares too many people.
That impregnable firewall was there in the spring. It didn't work and wasn't impregnable.
More Goldilocks Polling. Government kept on the tightest of leashes and certainly won't risk another early election stunt on those numbers. Labour not doing better because they've don't deserve to and with those numbers the government won't disintegrate. The electorate knows what it's doing and it's working.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
It does lead to the question: when Brexit happens in March 2019, what will be there to keep it pulling in the Remainers? "If you thought Brexit was the UK taking a monstrous risk, then you'll love our New Venezuela economic manifesto...."
Remainers are going to vote Anything but Tory, and that means mostly Labour. The Tories have lostt that demographic for a generation.
+1.
The figures from that Fareham by-election last night suggest that former UKIP supporters switched straight to LibDem. Some will have done, having been anti-Tories from the start. But the greater switches were probably UKIP->Tory and Tory->LibDem.
The Tories are acquiring a new demographic, older, less educated and later in the census alphabet than their traditional core (edit/ OK, not so much older). But I don't see that the party is yet well equipped to represent these people, particularly on economic issues.
I used to live in Stubbington, Fareham. The story is a little complicated. The UKIP councillor was a previous Tory and switched to UKIP, he was even spoken of as a future leader of UKIP (although wren't they all?). He later switched back to Tory while still a councillor. He recently resigned causing the by-election. So although it's officially a LibDem gain from UKIP, it was really a LibDem gain from Tory.
This is from the victorious LibDem's website: "The UKIP councillor who replaced Jim switched parties to the Conservatives last year, then resigned suddenly from the Council halfway through his term of office as Deputy Mayor."
The ward reverted to its type, a Con v Lib Dem marginal.
Hodges was a relatively interesting commentator when Ed M was leader. But since May 2015 he’s gone a bit haywire. I get the feeling that for him it’s full on Blairism or bust. He can’t make any compromises with those more to the left of him at all.
He is partly against Corbyn because he doesn't believe he can win, as far as I can see. But I'd say the main reason these days is the party attitude to anti-semitism.
Those are secondary to his prior hatred of the Left. He doesn't fear that Labour can't win on a leftish platform, he fantasises about it. He relishes calling Jewish Labour supporters 'Corbyn's useful Jewish idiotic'. I don't understand why he or others of his ilk are taken seriously - they just write their fantasies and pass it off as prediction. Hodges' vindication fantasy is that Labour will crash and burn without someone more Blair than Blair, so all his 'analysis' is him daydreaming about that happening.
Hodges was a relatively interesting commentator when Ed M was leader. But since May 2015 he’s gone a bit haywire. I get the feeling that for him it’s full on Blairism or bust. He can’t make any compromises with those more to the left of him at all.
He is partly against Corbyn because he doesn't believe he can win, as far as I can see. But I'd say the main reason these days is the party attitude to anti-semitism.
His issue with Corbyn goes beyond electability and the issues with anti-semitism. Hodges has a hardline preference for Blairism and is only willingly to support centrist Labour candidates. Much of his commentary on Corbyn isn’t all that different from his commentary on Ed M, despite one having a director of strategy and communications who is allegedly a Stalin sympathiser and the other working for New Labour.
And John Rentoul’s recent tweet sums up exactly what I’m talking about re Blairites like Hodgeshttps://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/928910117906669569 Yes, Jeremy Corbyn is all Gordon Brown’s and Ed Miliband’s fault. Give me a break. Say you what you like, but Gordon Brown and Ed M’s politics are perfectly legitimate and have a place in Labour. Blairites cannot complain about Corbynista intolerance and then express that same intolerance in relation to only being able to deal with pure Blairite centrism. Corbyn is a product of Blair, and of the inability of Labour centrists to not only compromise with the Soft Left but move on from New Labour and realise it is no longer represents a ‘modern’ vision of Britain.
YouGov comes as no surprise. Jeremy Corbyn is still a great asset to the Conservative party.Despite all the sneering on Sky News, BBC and Channel Four the electorate just want Mrs May to get on with it. They elected her only five months ago and though Brexit is a worry the far greater concern in the minds of the people is what would happen to the economy if an orthodox Marxist was Chancellor. The flight of capital and investment from the UK would be enormous.
Comments
WRT Thamesfield, there was a decent swing to Labour, but the party was hoping to do far better than that, given the ward has one of the highest proportions of young professionals and EU nationals in London.
First, it's undoubtedly true that Labour hasn't yet convinced uncommitted voters in significant numbers. That relates to point 2: people aren't really listening, except about Brexit, where Labour's muffled stance is not offending many but also not attracting many.
Second, while it's not quite true that any publicity is good publicity, no publicity is bad publicity. The impression of recent weeks has been that politics is all about May struggling desperately with an unruly crew, and nobody else reported saying much (and the LibDems and UKIP not reported as saying anything at all).
Third, people generally give governments a year or two before they start thinking seriously about chucking them out. We talk of mid-term blues; we don't normally talk of 6-month blues.
Finally, everything is currently seen through the Brexit optic. Most people are just suspending judgment till they see how it works out, though they are starting to be rather apprehensive about it.
I think there will be some sort of December interim deal, and that could give the Tories a lift. In the medium term, though, I think we'll see them in serious trouble.
And then they have an article wondering why the mob aren't out on the streets calling for people's heads...Jeez I don't know...Because Queenie having £3k in brighthouse ain't much of a scandal?
The second is not sneering at people who fly flags....
Although we don’t always agree!!
The voting intention figure would give Labour 295 seats and Tories 283 on an election tomorrow, so almost neck and neck in seat terms and despite having an 'open goal' in the past fortnight Corbyn has failed to even match Ed Miliband' s 2012 poll lead for Labour, let alone Blair's pre 1997 poll lead.
Arf.....
Even though me and my grandad share pretty different political outlooks, I can talk to him about politics pretty easily. It’s actually my dad (who is an ex-Labour voter, he’s now voted UKIP at the last two GEs) who I’m always having political arguments with on pretty much everything! I’ve told my dad that’s he’s become pretty right wing but interestingly he doesn’t see it that way and rejects that description (most likely because he’s very anti-Tory). Instead, he sees himself as a centrist....
Or is there something not being said.
Big Gord getting some top quality, self exculpatory gear from the state broadcaster at this very moment.
I prefer Hulkenberg to Sainz here because Hulkenberg's had some very strong performances at Brazil (also 2012 for Force India, he should've won it but got a harsh penalty).
Not so sure about Williams, though. Their downforce is not great.
Those from Australia and New Zealand don’t tend to be seen as ‘immigrants’ in the same way the above mentioned groups are.
If the perception changes to the government u-turning on Brexit then I’d expect to see Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance.
Let's repeat 2017, point to the polls to show Corbyn's ceiling (as Nick Cohen said: think of a number then halve it), convince ourselves of various nonsense narratives about the country on the back of the polling 'evidence' and be terribly surprised the day after. As we have for the elections and referendums of each of the last three years. Accurate polling would make politics boring tbh.
But really the people who could bring down the government are the DUP MPs - and they will, just as soon as they realise they are on to a hiding with their own electors.
Another powerful factor is the financial interests in the City of London. For some reason they don`t seem to be very clued up on the disaster that is awaiting us as the Conservatives continue to wreck the economy.
A third factor is Conservative infighting and waywardness. I read the other day that a group of very new Tory MPs is actually ordering Mrs May to clear away the dead wood in her Cabinet.
This useless government will fall in the near future, I am sure, but the deluded Labour Party will have very little to do with it.
MM. I asked myself the same question. All I could come up with was that Kenneth Branah's history in theatre tells him there is nothing wrong with a reinterpretation or several. Not that there was much reinterpreting here. He has history of course. Remember Frankenstein Sleuth Cinderella and several Shakespeare plays? A pity really because apart from the story there was a lot to like!
https://reaction.life/michael-gove-next-tory-leader/
I’ve always disagreed with him but had a grudging respect for what he did for his party and the wider independence movement - but now he comes across as a traitor to his own cause, especially given the context of the wider issues about Russia and politics at the moment.
Come the next locals they put in huge effort again but lose several seats up tories who told me they didn't even try much. So perhaps there was a sea change locally though.
People tend to focus on numbers and, secondarily, nationalities, but how migrants integrate is perhaps even more important. And a large part of that is down to the host community, which has done little in many cases to actually stand up for British values. Unless the political mainstream get a grip on this, there's a credible path for a reactionary far right movement to rise in politics.
It's quite alarming.
How Labour aren't 15 points up right now is a mystery. Given the press she is getting the fact that voters still believe she would make a better PM than Corbyn tells you all you really need to know.
Round me at least everyone (all former Big Pharma or Academia employees by chance) was a convinced Remainer, horrified at the prospect.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/928906122139963392
And will wait for the 2019 one too.....
And I suspect a fair whack of the non-toff public probably quietly think "wankah!" to themselves when they see the St George flag thing.
I was surprised the Labour vote for Leave was so low. Many went for UKIP in the last Euro elections while counting as Labour for the purposes of this poll having voted for Ed in 2015. But for a party so wedded to the EU as the Lib Dems 30% or 32% Leave seems relatively high. Any ideas why?
But the Corbynista wont hear of it. They've already started this morning on Hodges timeline, saying things like 'fake polls', when the campaign starts we'll put on 20 points etc etc
Anyone who thinks he's doing it for the cash hasn't much of a clue.
But the mechanism by which Thornberry mounts a Remainer coup and sweeps to power is a little uncertain, given that her valued colleague is stubbornly in power (and is 7-8 years younger than another leftie, Bernie Sanders).
He can never speak at a SNP conference again - the negative publicity would be astronomical.
The story is a little complicated. The UKIP councillor was a previous Tory and switched to UKIP, he was even spoken of as a future leader of UKIP (although wren't they all?). He later switched back to Tory while still a councillor. He recently resigned causing the by-election.
So although it's officially a LibDem gain from UKIP, it was really a LibDem gain from Tory.
This is from the victorious LibDem's website:
"The UKIP councillor who replaced Jim switched parties to the Conservatives last year, then resigned suddenly from the Council halfway through his term of office as Deputy Mayor."
His values and foreign policy are a lot of fun in a Che Guavara sort of way but his shadow cabinet is stuffed with semi illiterates and with his famed lack of organisational ability they will be completely dysfunctional.
Too many Labour voters understand this and just wont buy it.....
Corbyn CANNOT win a working majority.
Broken, sleazy LibDems on the slide?
What do you make of that ?
She both fails to inspire leftwingers like Corbyn while failing to appeal to swing voters as Blair did either.
Stubbington (Fareham) result:
LDEM: 55.2% (+32.4)
CON: 35.8% (+6.1)
UKIP: 5.4% (-37.9)
LAB: 3.5% (-0.5)
LDem GAIN from UKIP.
And John Rentoul’s recent tweet sums up exactly what I’m talking about re Blairites like Hodgeshttps://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/928910117906669569
Yes, Jeremy Corbyn is all Gordon Brown’s and Ed Miliband’s fault. Give me a break. Say you what you like, but Gordon Brown and Ed M’s politics are perfectly legitimate and have a place in Labour. Blairites cannot complain about Corbynista intolerance and then express that same intolerance in relation to only being able to deal with pure Blairite centrism. Corbyn is a product of Blair, and of the inability of Labour centrists to not only compromise with the Soft Left but move on from New Labour and realise it is no longer represents a ‘modern’ vision of Britain.