politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time Michael Gove got the credit for stopping Boris from
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time Michael Gove got the credit for stopping Boris from becoming Prime Minister
We all remember that crazy Thursday morning in July last year when Michael Gove announced that he was standing for the Conservative leadership thus scuppering in one blindingly effective stroke the bid by former Mayor of London, Mr Johnson.
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However, it's entirely possible that there quite a few names that would be to the left of Gove. (I'm not talking politically.)
A friend of mine used to be a manager in an engineering office, he kept a little flag on his desk. On one side it said "Tell them to sod off" on the other it said "Stop whinging and get on with it". He figured that covered the answers to 90% of the questions that came through the door of his office. Either it's something that has to be done, in which case the later applies, or its something that is wasting your time, in which case the former is the right option
That sounds like Boris Johnson's approach, trouble is,sometimes you have to get on with it
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
I couldn't see any circumstances where I would vote for him as party leader, with the exception of him being the candidate against Dr. Fox. And if we got to that shortlist, the party is royally screwed.
He’s also a prominent and genuine Leaver, which if we’ve not completely left the EU at the time of the contest will count in his favour. He will want to make Brexit a success and push international trade hard.
In a very mediocre field, with a lot of big names dropping like flies, Gove’s huge value at 25/1.
That will allow him to say that certain things needed to be said to get her home. If the secret deal was for Boris to have to publically suggest she was training journalists - in order to get her home without trial - would people still condemn him for it? And it would explain much....
That's not a very high bar.
If Boris fixes his mess then fair play.
I doubt very much this was a cunningly concocted scheme though.
https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/status/928504025036873729
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/928411861367783425
What really impressed senior leaders is structuring solutions to them with a recommendation you can argue, so they can make a decision, and for you to then be good in completing and delivering it.
What were two key problems with British industry in the 1890s, that led Germany to rapidly overtake the UK?
Lack of research and development investment, and lack of investment in staff training.
We still have the same problems 125 years later.
Maybe the PM will hold off until Monday or even until after the Budget, appointing an acting SoS DfID from within that department in the interim.
I've lumped onto Skybet's seemingly generous odds of 11/4 against a 2018 General Election.
As ever, DYOR.
Gove undoubtedly has the intelligence. Whether he has the degree of competence required is open to debate but he undoubtedly has the ability and drive to get things done against institutional opposition.
It is, it has to be said, a pretty poor field. But for me, with all my reservations about his Marmite qualities, he is the stand out candidate when the zombie finally crashes to the ground.
The challenge western nations face is the much hungrier, more highly motivated and driven children of the east. Their education systems may well not do much for imagination or creativity (although the evidence on that is increasingly mixed) but they are producing the work force of the future. If our children are to be employed in higher skilled jobs we really need to change our education radically. Blair saw it but did not deliver. Gove tried to change things with modest success. Most of our Secretaries of State for Education from both parties have been a total waste of space.
I wonder if these "senior Conservatives" are friends of the "senior Labour MPs" who set so many deadlines for Corbyn to so little effect.
Our Education Secretaries on the other hand...
Huge opportunities for the company that can dominate this market though, which will be a large number of smaller planes (as opposed to the Middle East, which is a comparatively small number of large planes. Emirates now only has two types on its fleet, the B777 and the A380. More than a hundred of the latter!)
We will look back at the formation of for-profit management structures imposed on state schools and the striping away of accountability and inspection and wonder what the heck Give was imagining would happen.
The story of the asset stripped schools should crucify Give.
Hammond or Hunt are my tips. On the other hand my leadership book on both party leaders is a real mess. It is very difficult to predict who will triumph in the chaos.
Gove conquers all?
I'd put the latter as more likely than the former.
(I'm also unsure the Iranian reaction would have been as it was if there'd been a secret deal. It also assumes BJ cares enough about Zaghari-Ratcliffe to use political capital to ensure her release. I see no reason that he would).
Boeing has a massively superior widebody range, with the 777 and the Dreamliner kicking Airbus's butt (and the A380 being a spectacular failure). That being said, my aviation industry friends say the A350 is a very compelling offering - with near 777 capacity and Dreamliner running costs.
Gove hides in familiar faces.
Gove comes when you least expect it.
Gove hides in narrow corners.
Gove comes to those who seek him.
Gove hides inside the rainbow.
Gove hides in molecular structures.
Gove is the answer.
DENIED
Vaguely incompetent, vaguely uncoordinated, vaguely ambitious.
BFD but typical of the government atm.
Fears are growing in Brussels that the instability of Mrs May’s government raises the real prospect of a change of leadership or elections leading to a Labour victory.
One European leader told The Times that officials were planning for both scenarios. “There is the great difficulty of the leadership in Great Britain, which is more and more fragile,” the leader said. “Britain is very weak and the weakness of Theresa May makes [Brexit] negotiations very difficult.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brussels-braced-for-fall-of-may-s-government-v28zlzvsp
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
His attacks on vested interests are rather patchy, unsustained and arguable in terms of results. He like new and radical thinking, but hasn't always seen it through. An able deputy if kept on a short leash, but for PM?
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
https://twitter.com/llisjak/status/927838089296384001
Sorry about line 3, I feel bad about doing that while people are having breakfast.
If Mrs May wants to show she is strong and stable she should appoint Sir Alan Duncan as Patel’s replacement.
It would send a signal to Israel.
I don't give any particular weighting as to Boris being strategist or buffoon. I just don't rule him out yet....
A. The A320neo and the A321LR are significantly better than the MAX. Look at sales figures and if you don’t believe that look at the scramble to produce the MAX-10.
B. Boeing is not kicking Airbus’ butt in wide body. Again look at the sales figures for the A350. Ive no doubt the 777X will be ok but it would be helpful to have it in service. The A380 is a failure but have a look at the sunk costs on the 747-8.
Boeing remain the more customer friendly manufacturer but that will only take you so far.
I think the general rule of thumb is that the newest plane is the best, once they’ve got the teething problems out of the production line. Emirates are already retiring older A380s, as they were on 10 year leases and are up to 10 tonnes heavier than new ones!
Anyway, isn’t the real story today the fact that we have until the end of the month to come up with the exit money - what we will pay for - so as to get trade talks underway? Otherwise the next opportunity is March and, by then, it will be too late to get anything in place by March 2019.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-michael-goves-wife-sarah-5325887
Gove has no chance of being the next Tory leader though, his abysmal polling means he is electoral poison, Davis is more likely to succeed May as PM in my view though I would not rule out Boris either once Brexit is done and of course Rees Mogg is also now an outside contender, though more likely a future opposition leader.
Chancellor of the Exchequer under Davis is a much more likely path for Gove I think.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Aid to the Palestinians was only suspended after some of it ended up going to Hamas.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1927874/britain-suspends-millions-of-aid-payments-to-palestine-amid-claims-cash-is-handed-to-terrorists/
Without knowing who the source is you don't know if they want no deal or a better deal for the EU
Their gamble is that if a second referendum can be engineered, it can be met with an offer of 'associate membership'. They might even try (as the Fundamental Law seems to suggest), that the EEA will be rolled into that. This way the money will keep flowing to the EU, Germany will have its balance against the Southern states, and the ratchet can continue to turn until a UK gov like the Blair regime is elected again. at that point the submergence of the UK into the project can resume because the 'question has been answered'. There will never be another opportunity to leave the EU, no government will risk this process again.
Someone in government must surely understand the concept of the cost benefit analysis. Surely?