Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
European Union leaders are preparing for the fall of Theresa May before the new year, it emerged yesterday, as the prime minister lost her second cabinet minister in a week.
Fears are growing in Brussels that the instability of Mrs May’s government raises the real prospect of a change of leadership or elections leading to a Labour victory.
One European leader told The Times that officials were planning for both scenarios. “There is the great difficulty of the leadership in Great Britain, which is more and more fragile,” the leader said. “Britain is very weak and the weakness of Theresa May makes [Brexit] negotiations very difficult.”
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
I think you may be right. Tories need something to change their narrative or people will stay at home.
Given 80% of Tory voters now back Leave they need a Leaver and a clearer tax cutting agenda to get them to vote
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
It is remarkable the number of senior Israeli politicians over the years who have been under investigation for corruption or convicted of it. I have no idea why this should be so.
It is the Spanish judiciary (not the govt) that locks people up, the Spanish crown was/is tied to the democratic transition and there are laws that protect the political system (and the crown). don't forget a UK citizen was locked up for remarks ref Gina Miller so we are not so different
I don't remember that but wouldn't it have been for threatening or abusing her, not insulting the system?
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
That's one solution. There are others. Cooper in no11 is one.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
It is remarkable the number of senior Israeli politicians over the years who have been under investigation for corruption or convicted of it. I have no idea why this should be so.
It is the Spanish judiciary (not the govt) that locks people up, the Spanish crown was/is tied to the democratic transition and there are laws that protect the political system (and the crown). don't forget a UK citizen was locked up for remarks ref Gina Miller so we are not so different
I don't remember that but wouldn't it have been for threatening or abusing her, not insulting the system?
I think he offered a reward for anyone willing to kill her.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
If I had to bet on a combined outcome that would be the one.
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
Don't think we can take integrity and honesty for granted and with competence it's still not enough.
Corbyn is relatively honest, has integrity and is clearly competent.
I think you may be right. Tories need something to change their narrative or people will stay at home.
Given 80% of Tory voters now back Leave they need a Leaver and a clearer tax cutting agenda to get them to vote
So in the end when all else has failed it's back to the traditional Conservative mantra of cutting taxes. Hammond wants to reduce the deficit and the debt (laudable) even though he wants to continue borrowing for big capital infrastructure projects while all the activists want is to start bribing people with their own money.
How does continued borrowing and cutting taxes reflect an agenda for sound economic management ? Answer - it doesn't. All it does is Conservative desperation to cling to power at all costs.
What about public spending ? Do you think there should be further cuts in public spending ? Where shall we start - funding for adult social care perhaps ? The NHS perhaps or shall we be really radical and cut defence spending instead ?
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
It's not competence she lacks, it's character judgement. She also faces the problem that her government is implementing a policy that she, half her cabinet, and more than 75% of the commons don't really support. They are the people who the 52% voted against - the metropolitan, the rich, for whom the last 20 years have been pretty good.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
European Union leaders are preparing for the fall of Theresa May before the new year, it emerged yesterday, as the prime minister lost her second cabinet minister in a week.
Fears are growing in Brussels that the instability of Mrs May’s government raises the real prospect of a change of leadership or elections leading to a Labour victory.
One European leader told The Times that officials were planning for both scenarios. “There is the great difficulty of the leadership in Great Britain, which is more and more fragile,” the leader said. “Britain is very weak and the weakness of Theresa May makes [Brexit] negotiations very difficult.”
It is the Spanish judiciary (not the govt) that locks people up, the Spanish crown was/is tied to the democratic transition and there are laws that protect the political system (and the crown). don't forget a UK citizen was locked up for remarks ref Gina Miller so we are not so different
I don't remember that but wouldn't it have been for threatening or abusing her, not insulting the system?
He was locked up for threatening violence. Very different from an insult. The former is a legitimate exception to free speech. The latter is an infringement of it. Indeed, kills it stone dead.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruinins.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
Labour would be 10 points or more ahead at the moment if the leader was Yvette Cooper.
If we're going counterfactual then no. Jezza got in only because the other three were the Tory-lite candidates. So if Yvette Cooper had been leader, she would have actively campaigned for Remain, the referendum would have been won, Dave would still be in place and the biggest thing on our minds right now would be what tax code Jaffa Cakes fell under.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Israeli intelligence has been crucial to stopping a number of terrorist attacks on the UK, that would stop under a PM Corbyn which would be dangerous for us.
Very nice, except Israel's government considers that Israel is in a constant state of war. This is of course justified by history, but it has many benefits for the government itself, mainly in that it can do what it damn well likes using the defence that it is doing it to protect the country from whatever is thought of as the latest threat. That some, sorry, a lot, of the actions taken seriously annoy not just opposing countries but their friends as well is "ignored" for the greater good of Israel and in particular, keeping Netanyahu in power.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Wasn't Emily Thornberry the Shadow Minister who did not know who her French counterpart was?.. When it comes to competence, I don't think Lady Nugee makes it.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruinins.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
Labour would be 10 points or more ahead at the moment if the leader was Yvette Cooper.
If we're going counterfactual then no. Jezza got in only because the other three were the Tory-lite candidates. So if Yvette Cooper had been leader, she would have actively campaigned for Remain, the referendum would have been won, Dave would still be in place and the biggest thing on our minds right now would be what tax code Jaffa Cakes fell under.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and then looks for genuine solutions to genuine problems.
But that does not mean he is necessarily suited to the position of PM. I don't think he would be popular enough with the general public and his awkward, slightly geeky nature is not suited to the modern political system where presentation is everything and substance comes a very poor second.
I also want him to stay long enough at DEFRA to make a real difference on matters such as soil depletion and the collapse of insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
It seems unlikely that Emily Rodham Thornberry could harness the slavering hordes of the Momentum Walking Dead in the way JC does. But if she could...
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories nt Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
Don't think we can take integrity and honesty for granted and with competence it's still not enough.
Corbyn is relatively honest, has integrity and is clearly competent.
Judgement.
I do not agree that Corbyn is honest and has integrity. He has not been straight when questioned hard about matters. He has a pleasant demeanour and manner but that is not the same thing.
He is a very effective campaigner. Whether he is competent at putting together and managing a team, driving policy and running an effective administration is very much in question. There is nothing to suggest this, based on his history so far.
Glad to see OGH saying what I have said for the last year or more.
Gove knew the consequences of ruining Boris's chances but he also knew his personal ambition s had to be subsumed to the far more important task of preventing a man becoming PM who was singularly unsuited to the role and would have been a disaster for the country.
Does this mean Gove is himself a suitable candidate for PM? - No. He is undoubtedly one of the most able ministers we have had for decades as his time at Justice and DEFRA show. He masters his brief and insect populations.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
snip
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
Labour would be 10 points or more ahead at the moment if the leader was Yvette Cooper.
No evidence for that.
Well there is sort of. It is unusual for a Government to be ahead in the polls between elections when it is as dysfunctional and accident prone as this one.
As many on PB have wondered - why aren't Labour ahead given May and Boris and all the rest of it?
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
If I had to bet on a combined outcome that would be the one.
Yes it looks the likely scenario though could be a tie with Pence casting vote if the Democrats have e an excellent night.
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
It's not competence she lacks, it's character judgement. She also faces the problem that her government is implementing a policy that she, half her cabinet, and more than 75% of the commons don't really support. They are the people who the 52% voted against - the metropolitan, the rich, for whom the last 20 years have been pretty good.
Judgment of character, when you are in a management position, is a key element of competence, I’d have thought.
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Anyway, isn’t the real story today the fact that we have until the end of the month to come up with the exit money - what we will pay for - so as to get trade talks underway? Otherwise the next opportunity is March and, by then, it will be too late to get anything in place by March 2019.
There are some who will object to any amount, and given how weak the government is there has to be the possibility they don't agree an amount.
Well, they have to otherwise nothing will move and we crash out. The cost to Britain in those circumstances will likely be very much higher than what it would cost to get trade talks underway.
Someone in government must surely understand the concept of the cost benefit analysis. Surely?
People who understand cost benefit analysis wouldn’t have supported Brexit in the first place.
I want him to stay at DEFRA too, for similar reasons. But on your other points, the electorate is in a restless mood, willing to consider people with characteristics that would previously have ruled them out. I wouldn't say that Corbyn is a master of presentation, but he's obviously sincere and dedicated, and many people in 2017 came to feel that perhaps those qualities deserved some weight.
We could really do with some more detailed polling on the state of opinion. My gut feeling is that basic loyalty to Tories and Labour remains reasonably evenly divided (so headline VI is probably still only a modest Labour lead), but certainty to vote is now much higher among Labour voters: on the whole they think the party has got its act together, and I don't meet many Conservatives who feel the same.
I don't see mass Con->Lab defections but I can well see many Tories sitting an election out if things continue in the current vein: many no longer feel that a Corbyn Government is an impossible nightmare, and giving a vote of confidence to the current Government feels... odd.
Corbyn needs to deal with the fact that he is a recruiting sergeant for the blues. Unless he does very few Tories will sit out. He has to deal with this.
Agreed. He has to relinquish the leadership and encourage his supporters to back the excellent Emily Thornberry who would have the best chance of a landslide since Tony Blair
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
Labour would be 10 points or more ahead at the moment if the leader was Yvette Cooper.
Sounds perfectly logical. But then I remember talking to a retired farmer, one time Tory councillor, who voted Labour for the first time in his life this summer. "Not put off by Corbyn?" I asked. "At least he's a socialist. I know what I'm getting." Pitching to the centre worked for Blair and Cameron and sounds like a really great plan. But there seem to be plenty of voters out there who'll only go for a nice cold drink or a hot one. Luke warm doesn't seem to appeal to them.
(I am not pushing my own agenda here. If it were up to me I'd have a Blair/Cameron coalition right now.)
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Anyway, isn’t the real story today the fact that we have until the end of the month to come up with the exit money - what we will pay for - so as to get trade talks underway? Otherwise the next opportunity is March and, by then, it will be too late to get anything in place by March 2019.
There are some who will object to any amount, and given how weak the government is there has to be the possibility they don't agree an amount.
Well, they have to otherwise nothing will move and we crash out. The cost to Britain in those circumstances will likely be very much higher than what it would cost to get trade talks underway.
Someone in government must surely understand the concept of the cost benefit analysis. Surely?
People who understand cost benefit analysis wouldn’t have supported Brexit in the first place.
Many would. It's simply that what you see as benefits, we see as costs.
I think you may be right. Tories need something to change their narrative or people will stay at home.
Given 80% of Tory voters now back Leave they need a Leaver and a clearer tax cutting agenda to get them to vote
So in the end when all else has failed it's back to the traditional Conservative mantra of cutting taxes. Hammond wants to reduce the deficit and the debt (laudable) even though he wants to continue borrowing for big capital infrastructure projects while all the activists want is to start bribing people with their own money.
How does continued borrowing and cutting taxes reflect an agenda for sound economic management ? Answer - it doesn't. All it does is Conservative desperation to cling to power at all costs.
What about public spending ? Do you think there should be further cuts in public spending ? Where shall we start - funding for adult social care perhaps ? The NHS perhaps or shall we be really radical and cut defence spending instead ?
There will be tax cuts unlike the failures of the last campaign with the dementia tax etc.
The NHS will remain ringfenced. The Laffer curve of course argues the more you cut tax the more revenue you raise in real terms. Tax rises do not always produce more revenue, sometimes the reverse e.g. the 50% top income tax rate under Brown.
Corbyn motivated his base last time and the Tories need to motivate their base next time.
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Integrity, Honesty?
Yes, of course. I would hope that that should be a given.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
It's not competence she lacks, it's character judgement. She also faces the problem that her government is implementing a policy that she, half her cabinet, and more than 75% of the commons don't really support. They are the people who the 52% voted against - the metropolitan, the rich, for whom the last 20 years have been pretty good.
Judgment of character, when you are in a management position, is a key element of competence, I’d have thought.
I suppose that's true - I was trying to separate the personal element from the policy element, but I accept that its part of the job.
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
If a party or politician has the momentum generally going with them, individual killer facts just get screened out because they don't fit the narrative: cf. that pig Blair and the Ecclestone money, or Corbyn/Hamas/IRA. I wouldn't bet the farm on the white van tweet saving the day.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Israeli intelligence has been crucial to stopping a number of terrorist attacks on the UK, that would stop under a PM Corbyn which would be dangerous for us.
Very nice, except Israel's government considers that Israel is in a constant state of war. This is of course justified by history, but it has many benefits for the government itself, mainly in that it can do what it damn well likes using the defence that it is doing it to protect the country from whatever is thought of as the latest threat. That some, sorry, a lot, of the actions taken seriously annoy not just opposing countries but their friends as well is "ignored" for the greater good of Israel and in particular, keeping Netanyahu in power.
We are almost in a state of war with ISIS affiliated terrorists.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
If I had to bet on a combined outcome that would be the one.
Yes it looks the likely scenario though could be a tie with Pence casting vote if the Democrats have e an excellent night.
I think even given Tuesday's results, that's right at the upper end of expectations for Democrats.
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
If a party or politician has the momentum generally going with them, individual killer facts just get screened out because they don't fit the narrative: cf. that pig Blair and the Ecclestone money, or Corbyn/Hamas/IRA. I wouldn't bet the farm on the white van tweet saving the day.
Not if you change the momentum in your direction see Tory attacks on Kinnock in 1992 or Labour attacks on Howard in 2005.
Thornberry is worse than Corbyn, she motivates the Labour base less while still turning off Tories.
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
If I had to bet on a combined outcome that would be the one.
Yes it looks the likely scenario though could be a tie with Pence casting vote if the Democrats have e an excellent night.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
The ECHR does not give much protection to free speech, unlike SCOTUS.
As for stupidity, I can only assume that people who smuggle drugs into South East Asian countries, or publicly have sex or get blind drunk in Muslim countries are attempting to win Darwin Awards.
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
If a party or politician has the momentum generally going with them, individual killer facts just get screened out because they don't fit the narrative: cf. that pig Blair and the Ecclestone money, or Corbyn/Hamas/IRA. I wouldn't bet the farm on the white van tweet saving the day.
'Lady Nugee the snob'. That will be the attack line. It will probably be against someone like Davis too - working class, ex council estate, ex forces.
The results of Tuesday mean that what I had thought an impossible task given the electoral map - the Dems holding the same number seats as they have now - looks way more achievable.
The way the Virginia suburbs rejected the Republican candidate was a big, important signal in my view.
EDIT: We'll be getting Gallup's party affiliation survey soon. Last month was 24% Republican which is close to all time low over the last couple of decades.
More likely the Democrats gain the House but the GOP keep the Senate like 2010 in reverse.
If I had to bet on a combined outcome that would be the one.
Yes it looks the likely scenario though could be a tie with Pence casting vote if the Democrats have e an excellent night.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
It is remarkable the number of senior Israeli politicians over the years who have been under investigation for corruption or convicted of it. I have no idea why this should be so.
My guess woud be that in the Israeli system to get to the top you have to to be a pretty accomplished wheeler dealer and that encourages those who operate close to the edge Witness Berlusconi and Trump
European Union leaders are preparing for the fall of Theresa May before the new year, it emerged yesterday, as the prime minister lost her second cabinet minister in a week.
Fears are growing in Brussels that the instability of Mrs May’s government raises the real prospect of a change of leadership or elections leading to a Labour victory.
One European leader told The Times that officials were planning for both scenarios. “There is the great difficulty of the leadership in Great Britain, which is more and more fragile,” the leader said. “Britain is very weak and the weakness of Theresa May makes [Brexit] negotiations very difficult.”
I doubt many in the EU do know the detail of FTP Act. Many in UK politics, including journos, don't seem to either.
Betfair still thinks that there’s a 2% chance of another election this year - that even if the PM announced it today, 434 MPs would vote next week to go to the polls three days before Christmas and spend the whole of December knocking on doors asking for votes rather than singing carols. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.132100025
Wasn't Emily Thornberry the Shadow Minister who did not know who her French counterpart was?.. When it comes to competence, I don't think Lady Nugee makes it.
Putting aside the natural desire of any Conservative activist or supporter to undermine a Labour leader before they are even elected, I don't have too many issues with Emily Thornberry.
I suppose her "gaffe" was no worse than the antics Cameron got up to as Conservative leader in Opposition, huskies at the North Pole and the like.
Do we seriously want political leaders who have never said or done anything in their lives to get elected ? Even as bland a character as Theresa may had the shoes and the "nasty party" speech.
Empathy, Judgement, Competence, Courage and Integrity is what I look for in a leader.
May has 2/5. Perhaps 3.
Cameron lacked judgement and courage.
Agree with your list. A bit of imagination would also help. And the ability to communicate is very important. You don’t need to be a barn-storming performer but you must be able to communicate what you and your team are about effectively. May lacks that too.
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
If a party or politician has the momentum generally going with them, individual killer facts just get screened out because they don't fit the narrative: cf. that pig Blair and the Ecclestone money, or Corbyn/Hamas/IRA. I wouldn't bet the farm on the white van tweet saving the day.
'Lady Nugee the snob'. That will be the attack line. It will probably be against someone like Davis too - working class, ex council estate, ex forces.
Turning the class battle on its head.
Possibly, but in one scale you have a tweet, in the other the country's most humiliating and damaging fuck up since 1942. Plus I doubt the whole of the WWC is unambiguously behind St George's flaggery. I can never see a car with those little sticky out ones without thinking "what a complete and utter chump", and that's not snobbery, it is elementary twat recognition.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
He should be covered by Article 10 of the EHCR on the freedom of speech. There are exceptions for libel and public order, but these aren't defences just because the defendant says they are. A three year prison sentence is excessive even with those exceptions.
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
At the present rate that may well be enough. Put Miliband up vs May's amazing collapsing party in a General Election and my money would be on Miliband.
Any idea who will replace PP now she is on the backbenches - seeing the reaction to the New Def Secretary, it will be interesting to see who comes in - a woman from the Brexit campaign - cant think of many except Kate Hoey or Gisela Stewart, unfortunately they are Labour
Priti also ticked the ethnic minority box, and the right wing box (separately from Brexit).
It’s ticking the boxes which is the problem. The only box to be ticked should be “competence”.
Anyway, isn’t the real story today the fact that we have until the end of the month to come up with the exit money - what we will pay for - so as to get trade talks underway? Otherwise the next opportunity is March and, by then, it will be too late to get anything in place by March 2019.
There are some who will object to any amount, and given how weak the government is there has to be the possibility they don't agree an amount.
Well, they have to otherwise nothing will move and we crash out. The cost to Britain in those circumstances will likely be very much higher than what it would cost to get trade talks underway.
Someone in government must surely understand the concept of the cost benefit analysis. Surely?
People who understand cost benefit analysis wouldn’t have supported Brexit in the first place.
Brexit was sold as all benefit and no cost. People don't understand why there should be what is clearly a cost of €60 billion.
In practice Brexit will be lots of cost and no real benefit, although some would see isolation as a benefit.
There will be tax cuts unlike the failures of the last campaign with the dementia tax etc.
The NHS will remain ringfenced. The Laffer curve of course argues the more you cut tax the more revenue you raise in real terms. Tax rises do not always produce more revenue, sometimes the reverse e.g. the 50% top income tax rate under Brown.
Corbyn motivated his base last time and the Tories need to motivate their base next time.
In other words the Conservatives are back to betting the farm on the Laffer Curve. Whose taxes will you cut ? Those of your new working class supporters or those of our traditional friends at the higher end of the wealth spectrum ?
You've dodged the spending question as usual. Unless you seriously believe you can reduce the debt and deficit purely by cutting taxes alone, what about spending ? Do you not accept the demands on adult social care and on welfare funding for the elderly are going to continue and indeed continue to increase ? How will these be supported ?
I suppose you could always put the burden back onto local authorities, allow them to increase Council Tax by 10% per annum and still claim taxes are falling.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
One of the things about the Jewish Faith, is the respect given to law. True, their will be many discussions equivalent to how many angels can dance on the top of a needle, but the Law will always hold. Netanyahu can not meddle in the justice system without losing his power base and the electorate.
What I really want from a PM is a degree of competence and some intelligence. It doesn't seem to be a lot to ask from the elected leader of 65m people but blimey, we really struggle to find the combination. Cameron had both as did Blair, May fails completely on the first and seems to struggle a bit with the second. Brown, well, lets not go there.
Gove undoubtedly has the intelligence. Whether he has the degree of competence required is open to debate but he undoubtedly has the ability and drive to get things done against institutional opposition.
It is, it has to be said, a pretty poor field. But for me, with all my reservations about his Marmite qualities, he is the stand out candidate when the zombie finally crashes to the ground.
Gove has intelligence and energy, but is rather quixiotic (remember his Bibles?) and does rather enjoy the skullduggery of court politics. Competence is very moot. The reaction to a failing leader is too often to overvalue what the failing one lacks.
Hammond or Hunt are my tips. On the other hand my leadership book on both party leaders is a real mess. It is very difficult to predict who will triumph in the chaos.
I try to keep my day job separate from comment here, but as it's a positive comment it probably does no harm to say I'm very impressed by Gove. The thing about him is that he likes to engage energetically in whatever brief he's given, and isn't too alarmed by the presence of vested interests. At a time when many Ministers seem preoccupied with career and succession issues, he really shines as someone trying to do his job well.
Well he can’t be doing a bad job, when former political opponents have good things to say about him.
As someone who works in the environmental sector, I can say that Gove is the first Minister we've had for a long time who appears at least willing to challenge NFU orthodoxy. Whether his actions eventually deliver, or whether he remains at Environment long enough to set a course will be interesting and to some extent open to events, but I can at least observe he is willing to dig into the issues and ask interesting questions.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
It is remarkable the number of senior Israeli politicians over the years who have been under investigation for corruption or convicted of it. I have no idea why this should be so.
My guess woud be that in the Israeli system to get to the top you have to to be a pretty accomplished wheeler dealer and that encourages those who operate close to the edge Witness Berlusconi and Trump
Some proper comparative data would be good: I get the feeling, for instance, that the French are no slouches at this - l'affaire des diamants was not an isolated affair. Of course it's like suicide and gayness statistics - you don't know whether the data represent actual prevalence, or willingness to admit/detect the thing you are measuring.
China is going to be the fastest growing market in aviation for the next couple of decades, and to be fair to them Airbus have opened an A320 assembly line in the country to support demand there. http://www.businessinsider.com/airbus-china-factory-a320-2015-8 Huge opportunities for the company that can dominate this market though, which will be a large number of smaller planes (as opposed to the Middle East, which is a comparatively small number of large planes. Emirates now only has two types on its fleet, the B777 and the A380. More than a hundred of the latter!)
Airbus has the (slightly) better narrow body range, with the A318-321 being a little better than the 737 (prior to the MAX).
Boeing has a massively superior widebody range, with the 777 and the Dreamliner kicking Airbus's butt (and the A380 being a spectacular failure). That being said, my aviation industry friends say the A350 is a very compelling offering - with near 777 capacity and Dreamliner running costs.
Boeing are on a roll at the moment, but I don't think that's to do with product offerings, which are comparable between the two manufacturers across the piece. Airbus were doing better than Boeing until last year and in fact have a larger backlog. The product mix hasn't changed. I suspect the relative change in fortunes is due to a re-energised Boeing sales team and an Airbus team that is introspectively focused on corruption charges, and on unrelated changes in leadership. The very charismatic principal salesman is leaving the company this year.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
The ECHR does not give much protection to free speech, unlike SCOTUS.
As for stupidity, I can only assume that people who smuggle drugs into South East Asian countries, or publicly have sex or get blind drunk in Muslim countries are attempting to win Darwin Awards.
Indeed. I’m living in Dubai (hence the handle) which is the most likely foreign city for a Briton to be arrested in the world. Sex on the beach, drug smuggling, drinking and driving, you name it Brits have been done for it here. The vast majority of which are also illegal in the UK but punished properly here. There are exceptions, such as writing dud cheques as a foreigner is illegal here, but everyone living in the sandpit knows that. When in Rome...
Empathy, Judgement, Competence, Courage and Integrity is what I look for in a leader.
May has 2/5. Perhaps 3.
Cameron lacked judgement and courage.
Agree with your list. A bit of imagination would also help. And the ability to communicate is very important. You don’t need to be a barn-storming performer but you must be able to communicate what you and your team are about effectively. May lacks that too.
It's quite an interesting little thought experiment. Blair and Thatcher, the two dominant politicians of my lifetime ticked all the boxes as they started out. But as time went on, power and hubris ate into their empathy and judgement.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
The ECHR does not give much protection to free speech, unlike SCOTUS.
As for stupidity, I can only assume that people who smuggle drugs into South East Asian countries, or publicly have sex or get blind drunk in Muslim countries are attempting to win Darwin Awards.
Indeed. I’m living in Dubai (hence the handle) which is the most likely foreign city for a Briton to be arrested in the world. Sex on the beach, drug smuggling, drinking and driving, you name it Brits have been done for it here. The vast majority of which are also illegal in the UK but punished properly here. There are exceptions, such as writing dud cheques as a foreigner is illegal here, but everyone living in the sandpit knows that. When in Rome...
Technically, sex outside of marriage, homosexuality, disrespecting the Emir, drinking alcohol are all illegal in the UAE
China is going to be the fastest growing market in aviation for the next couple of decades, and to be fair to them Airbus have opened an A320 assembly line in the country to support demand there. http://www.businessinsider.com/airbus-china-factory-a320-2015-8 Huge opportunities for the company that can dominate this market though, which will be a large number of smaller planes (as opposed to the Middle East, which is a comparatively small number of large planes. Emirates now only has two types on its fleet, the B777 and the A380. More than a hundred of the latter!)
Airbus has the (slightly) better narrow body range, with the A318-321 being a little better than the 737 (prior to the MAX).
As a recent passenger on a -MAX they are quieter inside - almost as quiet as Airbus - but they still have a fuselage (essentially) designed nearly sixty years ago - despite the new 'Sky' interior, the 320 is still more comfortable, in my book (a 3 month old 738Max vs a 9 year old 320...)
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
At the present rate that may well be enough. Put Miliband up vs May's amazing collapsing party in a General Election and my money would be on Miliband.
Except it will likely be against Davis not May and even now Labour are short of a majority in the polls.
The EU talks are stalled for one good reason. The EU are demanding money up front before they will negotiate on trade. This can be called blackmail.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
There will be tax cuts unlike the failures of the last campaign with the dementia tax etc.
The NHS will remain ringfenced. The Laffer curve of course argues the more you cut tax the more revenue you raise in real terms. Tax rises do not always produce more revenue, sometimes the reverse e.g. the 50% top income tax rate under Brown.
Corbyn motivated his base last time and the Tories need to motivate their base next time.
In other words the Conservatives are back to betting the farm on the Laffer Curve. Whose taxes will you cut ? Those of your new working class supporters or those of our traditional friends at the higher end of the wealth spectrum ?
You've dodged the spending question as usual. Unless you seriously believe you can reduce the debt and deficit purely by cutting taxes alone, what about spending ? Do you not accept the demands on adult social care and on welfare funding for the elderly are going to continue and indeed continue to increase ? How will these be supported ?
I suppose you could always put the burden back onto local authorities, allow them to increase Council Tax by 10% per annum and still claim taxes are falling.
The Tories can cut income tax for middle earners, cut stamp duty etc and keep the IHT tax cut.
Social care funding should be sent to a commission though personally I prefer social insurance.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
He should be covered by Article 10 of the EHCR on the freedom of speech. There are exceptions for libel and public order, but these aren't defences just because the defendant says they are. A three year prison sentence is excessive even with those exceptions.
Has Věra Jourová responded yet? You'd expect a case like this to catch the attention of the Commission.
" Sir Eric Pickles, a former minister, ex-chairman of the governing Conservative Party and the current head of Conservative Friends of Israel, suggested the meetings would not have caused such a stir if a country other than Israel had been involved. “I cannot imagine there would be this kind of fuss if she had met various people of influence in Belgium, if that is not a contradiction in terms,” said Pickles. "
The EU talks are stalled for one good reason. The EU are demanding money up front before they will negotiate on trade. This can be called blackmail.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
You can describe the other side's offer as blackmail, but doing so isn't a negotiating tactic that delivers results.
I sort of feel both the government and the country need results.
The EU talks are stalled for one good reason. The EU are demanding money up front before they will negotiate on trade. This can be called blackmail.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
60 bn, but agreed only in principle and subject to satisfactory outcomes on everything else, and dressed up by netting it off as much as possible against eu to us liabilities so that we are only making an actual cash payment of 30 bn max, and in more than one installment.
The EU talks are stalled for one good reason. The EU are demanding money up front before they will negotiate on trade. This can be called blackmail.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
May will pay up in the end, the Tories will keep her in place to get a FTA or clear moves towards one pre Brexit then dump her for a Leaver post Brexit.
Empathy, Judgement, Competence, Courage and Integrity is what I look for in a leader.
May has 2/5. Perhaps 3.
Cameron lacked judgement and courage.
Agree with your list. A bit of imagination would also help. And the ability to communicate is very important. You don’t need to be a barn-storming performer but you must be able to communicate what you and your team are about effectively. May lacks that too.
It's quite an interesting little thought experiment. Blair and Thatcher, the two dominant politicians of my lifetime ticked all the boxes as they started out. But as time went on, power and hubris ate into their empathy and judgement.
Yes. There is much to be said for the US approach of limiting how long a politician can be in the top post. Even if you don’t go that far, I think after ca. 8 - 10 years max a politician in power is running on empty, in our system anyway, and the hubris, egomania etc take over.
I’m not in favour of the idea that a leader should automatically resign after the first GE defeat. Where might Labour be if Milliband had stayed in place as leader?
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
He should be covered by Article 10 of the EHCR on the freedom of speech. There are exceptions for libel and public order, but these aren't defences just because the defendant says they are. A three year prison sentence is excessive even with those exceptions.
Has Věra Jourová responded yet? You'd expect a case like this to catch the attention of the Commission.
Why would it attract the attention of the Commission? It is an internal matter for Spain, subject to them adhering to international norms overseen by the ECtHR, which isn't an EU institution.
Empathy, Judgement, Competence, Courage and Integrity is what I look for in a leader.
May has 2/5. Perhaps 3.
Cameron lacked judgement and courage.
Agree with your list. A bit of imagination would also help. And the ability to communicate is very important. You don’t need to be a barn-storming performer but you must be able to communicate what you and your team are about effectively. May lacks that too.
It's quite an interesting little thought experiment. Blair and Thatcher, the two dominant politicians of my lifetime ticked all the boxes as they started out. But as time went on, power and hubris ate into their empathy and judgement.
Yes. There is much to be said for the US approach of limiting how long a politician can be in the top post. Even if you don’t go that far, I think after ca. 8 - 10 years max a politician in power is running on empty, in our system anyway, and the hubris, egomania etc take over.
I’m not in favour of the idea that a leader should automatically resign after the first GE defeat. Where might Labour be if Milliband had stayed in place as leader?
Below where they are with Corbyn I expect.
Corbyn motivated the left unlike Ed Miliband even if he still failed to reach enough Tories.
The Tories can cut income tax for middle earners, cut stamp duty etc and keep the IHT tax cut.
Social care funding should be sent to a commission though personally I prefer social insurance.
A bit of a mess there to be honest.
"Cut tax for middle earners" - what does that mean ? If you mean raise the threshold at which higher level tax kicks in, fine. It's a reversal of the Osborne policy from 2010-15 but it might help a little in London and some other areas.
"Cut stamp duty". Hopeless. It's been tried before - all it does is create another boom in house prices and increase pressure on those who are trying to get on the property ladder. I thought the Conservatives were the Party for those aspiring to move forward - seemingly not. A solution to the housing problem needs much more as Hammond thankfully has already decided.
"IHT Tax Cut" - one of the most ridiculous parts of the "dementia tax" proposal (though I suppose it was meant to be the hook) was the raising of the asset threshold from £23,500 to £100k. That effectively meant £76,500 of care for every older person (or about 18 months of care in a residential home in London) would be paid for by the State or rather other taxpayers. Social insurance might well be the medium to longer term answer and it has a lot going for it but the problem is coming up in the next 5-10 years with a new wave of people approaching retirement and then seeking residential care.
The care industry can't cope with the demand and as with housing you get the cowboys coming in and utilising cheap labour to provide care well below any acceptable standard. Just as slum landlords cram people into every inch of space in unsuitable houses the same will happen with care for the elderly.
Thank you for the answer. I suspect very few will give a figure and that's the basic problem. You're damned either way. Sometimes, it's better to be in opposition.
I don't rate Mrs May at all, but pretending she has an easy choice is silly.
As a leaver, I'd prepare for no deal, if only to show we mean business. It's called negotiation.
The Tories can cut income tax for middle earners, cut stamp duty etc and keep the IHT tax cut.
Social care funding should be sent to a commission though personally I prefer social insurance.
A bit of a mess there to be honest.
"Cut tax for middle earners" - what does that mean ? If you mean raise the threshold at which higher level tax kicks in, fine. It's a reversal of the Osborne policy from 2010-15 but it might help a little in London and some other areas.
"Cut stamp duty". Hopeless. It's been tried before - all it does is create another boom in house prices and increase pressure on those who are trying to get on the property ladder. I thought the Conservatives were the Party for those aspiring to move forward - seemingly not. A solution to the housing problem needs much more as Hammond thankfully has already decided.
"IHT Tax Cut" - one of the most ridiculous parts of the "dementia tax" proposal (though I suppose it was meant to be the hook) was the raising of the asset threshold from £23,500 to £100k. That effectively meant £76,500 of care for every older person (or about 18 months of care in a residential home in London) would be paid for by the State or rather other taxpayers. Social insurance might well be the medium to longer term answer and it has a lot going for it but the problem is coming up in the next 5-10 years with a new wave of people approaching retirement and then seeking residential care.
The care industry can't cope with the demand and as with housing you get the cowboys coming in and utilising cheap labour to provide care well below any acceptable standard. Just as slum landlords cram people into every inch of space in unsuitable houses the same will happen with care for the elderly.
Osborne took the lowest earners out of income tax, no reason the threshold cannot rise further or a cut in the basic rate of income tax.
Stamp Duty adds to the cost for new buyers and a cut would go hand in hand with more affordable housing.
The raising of the asset threshold was the only good bit in the social care plans though of course leftwingers like you who will never vote Tory will dislike it.
Re Patel. It's clear Israel are worried about a Corbyn government. May and the Conservatives are seen as friends as was shown by rolling out the red carpet to celebrate the Balfour Declaration last week.
It seems through the offices of Polak they have been lavishing hospitalitiy on MPs -primarily Conservative- with fine dining and free trips to the country in the hope of gaining influence. In this they have had some degree of success.
The British government through Patel had recently cut aid to the Palestinians for somewhat spurious reasons and owing to the recent charges of anti semitism scrutiny by Labour has been virtually non existant.
This coincides with the Israeli chief of propaganda Mark Regev becoming Israel's ambassador to London........
Join the dots......
Just listening to Radio 4, seems that most papers around the world are going on about the Patel's "resignation", however in the country that should have more interest than most, the Israeli media is more interested in the legal problems of Netanyahu and his attempts to stay out of prison.
There is a very real possibility he'll end up in jail. He has allegedly been skimming off the top since at least 2000. It is to Israel's credit that they have a sufficiently independent judiciary that they're still on his tail. Then again so have Italy but Burlusconi is still on the loose
One of the things about the Jewish Faith, is the respect given to law. True, their will be many discussions equivalent to how many angels can dance on the top of a needle, but the Law will always hold. Netanyahu can not meddle in the justice system without losing his power base and the electorate.
The EU talks are stalled for one good reason. The EU are demanding money up front before they will negotiate on trade. This can be called blackmail.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
60 bn, but agreed only in principle and subject to satisfactory outcomes on everything else, and dressed up by netting it off as much as possible against eu to us liabilities so that we are only making an actual cash payment of 30 bn max, and in more than one installment.
The deal is €60 billion to clear all obligations, a two year extension of the current regime and an agreement on a framework for the eventual relationship, but the not the deal itself, which will be negotiated after we leave. The money might be flexible but the other points aren't.
The two sides see the payment in different ways. For us it needs to be something for something. For the EU, it's about obligations. The negotiations have to bridge that gap.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
The ECHR does not give much protection to free speech, unlike SCOTUS.
As for stupidity, I can only assume that people who smuggle drugs into South East Asian countries, or publicly have sex or get blind drunk in Muslim countries are attempting to win Darwin Awards.
Indeed. I’m living in Dubai (hence the handle) which is the most likely foreign city for a Briton to be arrested in the world. Sex on the beach, drug smuggling, drinking and driving, you name it Brits have been done for it here. The vast majority of which are also illegal in the UK but punished properly here. There are exceptions, such as writing dud cheques as a foreigner is illegal here, but everyone living in the sandpit knows that. When in Rome...
Technically, sex outside of marriage, homosexuality, disrespecting the Emir, drinking alcohol are all illegal in the UAE
Yes. Add transvestism to that too. Drinking alcohol without a licence is a great one, they add it to anything else you’re charged with to put another couple of hundred quid on the fine. No income tax, but the government need to raise revenue from somewhere. Loads of sped cameras too, but actually over here that’s a good thing as it slows down all the young idiots with too much money. Minor speeding offences carry no points but a £150 fine.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
He should be covered by Article 10 of the EHCR on the freedom of speech. There are exceptions for libel and public order, but these aren't defences just because the defendant says they are. A three year prison sentence is excessive even with those exceptions.
Has Věra Jourová responded yet? You'd expect a case like this to catch the attention of the Commission.
Why would it attract the attention of the Commission? It is an internal matter for Spain, subject to them adhering to international norms overseen by the ECtHR, which isn't an EU institution.
Sure.
But one of the things the EU always says is in its favour is that it stands for, and has helped spread and reinforce, liberal democratic values. So it should be a considerable concern that one of its members is locking people up for having the temerity to say rude things about the head of state.
But one of the things the EU always says is in its favour is that it stands for, and has helped spread and reinforce, liberal democratic values. So it should be a considerable concern that one of its members is locking people up for having the temerity to say rude things about the head of state.
“I cannot imagine there would be this kind of fuss if she had met various people of influence in Belgium
If Belgium was illegally occupying chunks of Holland and she had visited one of those chunks there might well be....
A silly comment by Pickles. If she’d been going off piste, not involving the FCO, lying about what she’d been doing, involving party donors, she’d still be in trouble.
It’s a worrying approach to free speech certainly. If you can be locked up for insulting the Crown, why not be locked up for insulting a religious figure, for instance?
Thailand has some pretty robust lese-majestie laws. Ex pat websites often warn about them.
Most of the Middle East and Asia are the same, although if you’re a guest in someone’s country it’s the commonest of common sense not to insult your gracious hosts - not of course that it stops lots of British expats and tourists from getting themselves arrested every year for various acts of stupidity. Witness the lady in Egypt caught with a bag full of drugs only last week.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
He should be covered by Article 10 of the EHCR on the freedom of speech. There are exceptions for libel and public order, but these aren't defences just because the defendant says they are. A three year prison sentence is excessive even with those exceptions.
Has Věra Jourová responded yet? You'd expect a case like this to catch the attention of the Commission.
Why would it attract the attention of the Commission? It is an internal matter for Spain, subject to them adhering to international norms overseen by the ECtHR, which isn't an EU institution.
Because membership of the ECHR, since the Lisbon Treaty, I believe has been made mandatory (Copenhagen Criteria?). In addition to this, the charter of Fundamental Rights is an EU instrument, and this would appear to breach Article 11.
Osborne took the lowest earners out of income tax, no reason the threshold cannot rise further or a cut in the basic rate of income tax.
Stamp Duty adds to the cost for new buyers and a cut would go hand in hand with more affordable housing.
The raising of the asset threshold was the only good bit in the social care plans though of course leftwingers like you who will never vote Tory will dislike it.
Indeed, Osborne adopted a measure originally advocated by Vince Cable and initially scorned by some Conservatives but thankfully Osborne (for all his faults it seems) got this one right and it remains for me one of the Coalition's achievements. Moving that threshold toward £15k would be a positive move. I would rather move thresholds and raise allowances than cut tax rates.
On Stamp Duty, the current distorted housing market means cutting the Stamp Duty makes matters worse not better. Yes, of course we need more affordable housing but that will take time. A the moment we have a huge imbalance (especially but not exclusively around London) between supply and demand. When and only when that balance has been achieved can we talk about selective stamp duty cuts in certain bands if required. 400,000 plots land banked by property developers with planning permission for residential development could be made available now but the Government actively encourages keeping land values high so it can sell off its own surplus land.
If you want to call me a "left-winger" because I'm not a Conservative, fine. I don't really care. The point remains that under the "dementia tax" proposals I and every other taxpayer were going to be left with the additional cost of £76,500 of every single person's care just so their children can inherit a good bit more. I've no problem with inheritance in principle but this was ridiculous. That cost comes straight back to the local authority and through them to the taxpayer.
I thought the Conservatives believed in families taking care of their older relatives and in self-responsibility. I also thought the Conservatives were looking after the interests of the taxpayer. It seems I was wrong.
Social insurance might well be a big part of the answer and I accept that but the whole area needs a rapid and comprehensive re-think from the ground up with nothing excluded and that includes all of us paying more in tax or whatever as provision for our later years.
It is unfortunate that Mrs May is being cajoled into giving Patel's job to a Brexiteer. Almost by definition Brexiteers don't believe in overseas aid......
I heard a female journalist say on radio this morning that the standard of MPs at the moment is the poorest in living memory.
What a time to change our system of governance.....
Osborne took the lowest earners out of income tax, no reason the threshold cannot rise further or a cut in the basic rate of income tax.
Stamp Duty adds to the cost for new buyers and a cut would go hand in hand with more affordable housing.
The raising of the asset threshold was the only good bit in the social care plans though of course leftwingers like you who will never vote Tory will dislike it.
Indeed, Osborne adopted a measure originally advocated by Vince Cable and initially scorned by some Conservatives but thankfully Osborne (for all his faults it seems) got this one right and it remains for me one of the Coalition's achievements. Moving that threshold toward £15k would be a positive move. I would rather move thresholds and raise allowances than cut tax rates.
On Stamp Duty, the current distorted housing market means cutting the Stamp Duty makes matters worse not better. Yes, of course we need more affordable housing but that will take time. A the moment we have a huge imbalance (especially but not exclusively around London) between supply and demand. When and only when that balance has been achieved can we talk about selective stamp duty cuts in certain bands if required. 400,000 plots land banked by property developers with planning permission for residential development could be made available now but the Government actively encourages keeping land values high so it can sell off its own surplus land.
If you want to call me a "left-winger" because I'm not a Conservative, fine. I don't really care. The point remains that under the "dementia tax" proposals I and every other taxpayer were going to be left with the additional cost of £76,500 of every single person's care just so their children can inherit a good bit more. I've no problem with inheritance in principle but this was ridiculous. That cost comes straight back to the local authority and through them to the taxpayer.
I thought the Conservatives believed in families taking care of their older relatives and in self-responsibility. I also thought the Conservatives were looking after the interests of the taxpayer. It seems I was wrong.
Social insurance might well be a big part of the answer and I accept that but the whole area needs a rapid and comprehensive re-think from the ground up with nothing excluded and that includes all of us paying more in tax or whatever as provision for our later years.
The Conservative have always believed in the family and inheritance it is leftwingers who do not, they believe in the state above all and would happily take virtually all of a private estate on death.
It is unfortunate that Mrs May is being cajoled into giving Patel's job to a Brexiteer. Almost by definition Brexiteers don't believe in overseas aid......
I heard a female journalist say on radio this morning that the standard of MPs at the moment is the poorest in living memory.
What a time to change our system of governance.....
The successor to Nick Palmer as MP for Broxtowe might be a suitable candidate for the vacant post.
Comments
Neither will happen.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2842783/Labour-MP-accused-outrageous-snobbery-tweeting-photo-remarkable-house-flying-St-George-s-flags.html
Tony Blair she ain't, more Ed Miliband in a skirt.
Take Mrs May: I have no doubt that she is an honest woman. But she fails on competence. Johnson is both incompetent and lacks integrity.
Gove eh? Resurrected? I'm on at 36 from a few months ago, so fairly satisfied with that.
Corbyn is relatively honest, has integrity and is clearly competent.
Judgement.
So in the end when all else has failed it's back to the traditional Conservative mantra of cutting taxes. Hammond wants to reduce the deficit and the debt (laudable) even though he wants to continue borrowing for big capital infrastructure projects while all the activists want is to start bribing people with their own money.
How does continued borrowing and cutting taxes reflect an agenda for sound economic management ? Answer - it doesn't. All it does is Conservative desperation to cling to power at all costs.
What about public spending ? Do you think there should be further cuts in public spending ? Where shall we start - funding for adult social care perhaps ? The NHS perhaps or shall we be really radical and cut defence spending instead ?
Burnham came top, then Kendall, then Corbyn, then Cooper.
He is a very effective campaigner. Whether he is competent at putting together and managing a team, driving policy and running an effective administration is very much in question. There is nothing to suggest this, based on his history so far.
As many on PB have wondered - why aren't Labour ahead given May and Boris and all the rest of it?
A reassuring sound
(I am not pushing my own agenda here. If it were up to me I'd have a Blair/Cameron coalition right now.)
May has 2/5. Perhaps 3.
Cameron lacked judgement and courage.
How does continued borrowing and cutting taxes reflect an agenda for sound economic management ? Answer - it doesn't. All it does is Conservative desperation to cling to power at all costs.
What about public spending ? Do you think there should be further cuts in public spending ? Where shall we start - funding for adult social care perhaps ? The NHS perhaps or shall we be really radical and cut defence spending instead ?
There will be tax cuts unlike the failures of the last campaign with the dementia tax etc.
The NHS will remain ringfenced. The Laffer curve of course argues the more you cut tax the more revenue you raise in real terms. Tax rises do not always produce more revenue, sometimes the reverse e.g. the 50% top income tax rate under Brown.
Corbyn motivated his base last time and the Tories need to motivate their base next time.
Surprised about Spain though, surely this guy must have a good case at the European Court of Human Rights, people should be locked up in a Western democracy for speech that’s not inciting violence.
Thornberry is worse than Corbyn, she motivates the Labour base less while still turning off Tories.
As for stupidity, I can only assume that people who smuggle drugs into South East Asian countries, or publicly have sex or get blind drunk in Muslim countries are attempting to win Darwin Awards.
Turning the class battle on its head.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.132100025
I suppose her "gaffe" was no worse than the antics Cameron got up to as Conservative leader in Opposition, huskies at the North Pole and the like.
Do we seriously want political leaders who have never said or done anything in their lives to get elected ? Even as bland a character as Theresa may had the shoes and the "nasty party" speech.
In practice Brexit will be lots of cost and no real benefit, although some would see isolation as a benefit.
You've dodged the spending question as usual. Unless you seriously believe you can reduce the debt and deficit purely by cutting taxes alone, what about spending ? Do you not accept the demands on adult social care and on welfare funding for the elderly are going to continue and indeed continue to increase ? How will these be supported ?
I suppose you could always put the burden back onto local authorities, allow them to increase Council Tax by 10% per annum and still claim taxes are falling.
You are the PM. How much would you give them? 50 billion? 200 billion? Anything they ask for? Remember the British public don't approve of blackmail, and may punish you at the polls if you give too much of their money away.
Social care funding should be sent to a commission though personally I prefer social insurance.
" Sir Eric Pickles, a former minister, ex-chairman of the governing Conservative Party and the current head of Conservative Friends of Israel, suggested the meetings would not have caused such a stir if a country other than Israel had been involved. “I cannot imagine there would be this kind of fuss if she had met various people of influence in Belgium, if that is not a contradiction in terms,” said Pickles. "
https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-aid-minister-forced-to-quit-over-unauthorized-meetings-with-israeli-officials/
I sort of feel both the government and the country need results.
Gove to good for a backwater like DIFD though -
I’m not in favour of the idea that a leader should automatically resign after the first GE defeat. Where might Labour be if Milliband had stayed in place as leader?
Corbyn motivated the left unlike Ed Miliband even if he still failed to reach enough Tories.
"Cut tax for middle earners" - what does that mean ? If you mean raise the threshold at which higher level tax kicks in, fine. It's a reversal of the Osborne policy from 2010-15 but it might help a little in London and some other areas.
"Cut stamp duty". Hopeless. It's been tried before - all it does is create another boom in house prices and increase pressure on those who are trying to get on the property ladder. I thought the Conservatives were the Party for those aspiring to move forward - seemingly not. A solution to the housing problem needs much more as Hammond thankfully has already decided.
"IHT Tax Cut" - one of the most ridiculous parts of the "dementia tax" proposal (though I suppose it was meant to be the hook) was the raising of the asset threshold from £23,500 to £100k. That effectively meant £76,500 of care for every older person (or about 18 months of care in a residential home in London) would be paid for by the State or rather other taxpayers. Social insurance might well be the medium to longer term answer and it has a lot going for it but the problem is coming up in the next 5-10 years with a new wave of people approaching retirement and then seeking residential care.
The care industry can't cope with the demand and as with housing you get the cowboys coming in and utilising cheap labour to provide care well below any acceptable standard. Just as slum landlords cram people into every inch of space in unsuitable houses the same will happen with care for the elderly.
Thank you for the answer. I suspect very few will give a figure and that's the basic problem. You're damned either way. Sometimes, it's better to be in opposition.
I don't rate Mrs May at all, but pretending she has an easy choice is silly.
As a leaver, I'd prepare for no deal, if only to show we mean business. It's called negotiation.
Must do better Scott.
Stamp Duty adds to the cost for new buyers and a cut would go hand in hand with more affordable housing.
The raising of the asset threshold was the only good bit in the social care plans though of course leftwingers like you who will never vote Tory will dislike it.
The two sides see the payment in different ways. For us it needs to be something for something. For the EU, it's about obligations. The negotiations have to bridge that gap.
But one of the things the EU always says is in its favour is that it stands for, and has helped spread and reinforce, liberal democratic values. So it should be a considerable concern that one of its members is locking people up for having the temerity to say rude things about the head of state.
That is not liberal at all.
Gove popped up at Widecombe Fair this year, making the local farmers distinctly queasy with his vision of sunlit, subsidy-free uplands.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/09/swallow-the-lot-and-swallow-it-now-britain-is-and-was-deluded-about-its-negotiating-power-with-the-eu/
On Stamp Duty, the current distorted housing market means cutting the Stamp Duty makes matters worse not better. Yes, of course we need more affordable housing but that will take time. A the moment we have a huge imbalance (especially but not exclusively around London) between supply and demand. When and only when that balance has been achieved can we talk about selective stamp duty cuts in certain bands if required. 400,000 plots land banked by property developers with planning permission for residential development could be made available now but the Government actively encourages keeping land values high so it can sell off its own surplus land.
If you want to call me a "left-winger" because I'm not a Conservative, fine. I don't really care. The point remains that under the "dementia tax" proposals I and every other taxpayer were going to be left with the additional cost of £76,500 of every single person's care just so their children can inherit a good bit more. I've no problem with inheritance in principle but this was ridiculous. That cost comes straight back to the local authority and through them to the taxpayer.
I thought the Conservatives believed in families taking care of their older relatives and in self-responsibility. I also thought the Conservatives were looking after the interests of the taxpayer. It seems I was wrong.
Social insurance might well be a big part of the answer and I accept that but the whole area needs a rapid and comprehensive re-think from the ground up with nothing excluded and that includes all of us paying more in tax or whatever as provision for our later years.
I heard a female journalist say on radio this morning that the standard of MPs at the moment is the poorest in living memory.
What a time to change our system of governance.....
https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-mk-cut-police-chiefs-salary-give-netanyahu-raise/