politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fallow quits as defence secretary

Would be first but need to check my bets.

Footballing tip of the evening.

Emre Can to score a hat-trick

325/1 with Paddy Power.

Can you all forget about that thread I wrote a few weeks ago tipping Sir Michael Fallon as next Prime Minister.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can you all forget about that thread I wrote a few weeks ago tipping Sir Michael Fallon as next Prime Minister.

No

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/925810598021140480

TheScreamingEagles said:

hps://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/925810598021140480

It'd be funny if he ranked where she fell in the list of four PMs he has served.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can you all forget about that thread I wrote a few weeks ago tipping Sir Michael Fallon as next Prime Minister.

I think I missed it, though I had the same thought, so perfectly willing to forget it again for you.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/07/how-kim-jong-un-makes-sir-michael-fallon-prime-minister/

Given his reasons for going, hopefully this will encourage more true accusations as people see there are consequences, even as there will no doubt be an increase in false accusations as well, since such is life.

Any thoughts on next Minister for Cuts Defence Secretary? Priti Patel would seeem one possible.

His wikipedia page has already gotten confused - Secretary of State for Defence from July 1901 - November 1934 seems wrong.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/925806802582851592
Wait what? Is something worse coming out or something?

A hand on a knee 15 years ago.

I’m aware of the hand on knee story, but even I’m shocked that’s he’s resigning over that, given JHB’s response. That’s why I thought is something worse than that story coming out?

Hence why my initial reaction is did he just want out - if not that or that there is worse to come out, it does seem very odd. Sure, as the first big name to own up to something there might have been pressure to resign, but given JHB's response, I really didn't get the impression there was that much pressure, in fact I don't recall anyone even suggesting it.
Prior to this I would have had Fallon as a dark horse candidate for PM - stolid, but not as grey as Hammond, and had a bit of a talent for being an attack dog without provoking the sort of instinctual dislike of regular attack dogs.

Someone in the press must have something else on him - making a clumsy pass at a journalist 15 years ago really isn’t a resigning matter, especially when compared to allegations out there against others.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm never playing the next out of cabinet market again.

A good night for the bookies?

SeanT said:

Frankly, I'm more astonished by the poor woman claiming rape at Lambeth Palace. There are HETEROSEXUALS in the Church of England???

I haven't heard this. Do you have a source?

ydoethur said:

SeanT said:

Frankly, I'm more astonished by the poor woman claiming rape at Lambeth Palace. There are HETEROSEXUALS in the Church of England???

I haven't heard this. Do you have a source?

On Channel 4 news.

MarqueeMark said:

We need to get rid of anyone else in Cabinet who might have to fall on their sword. Now. What we can't have is an open-ended series of Cabinet reshuffles.

Well sure, but if there isn't more emerging on Fallon, then the list of those to fall on swords could be very high, as the bar would have been set low.

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

SeanT said:

Frankly, I'm more astonished by the poor woman claiming rape at Lambeth Palace. There are HETEROSEXUALS in the Church of England???

I haven't heard this. Do you have a source?

On Channel 4 news.

Ah. So in effect a 'no' then.

Edited because smiley seems on reflection inappropriate for subject.

MarqueeMark said:

We need to get rid of anyone else in Cabinet who might have to fall on their sword. Now. What we can't have is an open-ended series of Cabinet reshuffles.

Oh to be a fly on the wall if the PM asks the whips to open their little black books on the whole cabinet.

Evening all

I'm genuinely surprised and like many I suspect my initial reaction was to wonder if there's more out there than simply the whole Hartley-Brewer knee interaction 15 years ago which, given Hartley-Brewer's reaction and details of far more serious matters now emerging seems relatively trivial.

It seems Fallon sets very high standards for himself as some representative of the Armed Forces which is laudable but a tad contrived. I don't know whether other Defence Secretaries have seen themselves in those terms.

It doesn't seem to be a wholly political act as there is no general reshuffle so it seems just curious.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm never playing the next out of cabinet market again.

A good night for the bookies?

I'm fairly certain he was 33/1 a couple of months ago., so if anyone took those odds it might not be that profitable for them.

I remember the days when Boris was odds on to be next out.

Always lay Boris?

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm never playing the next out of cabinet market again.

A good night for the bookies?

I'm fairly certain he was 33/1 a couple of months ago., so if anyone took those odds it might not be that profitable for them.

I remember the days when Boris was odds on to be next out.

Has to be said as well, if anyone had suggested to me that a sex scandal would force Fallon out before Blow-job Bojo I'd have asked for some of whatever they were drinking.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm never playing the next out of cabinet market again.

A good night for the bookies?

I'm fairly certain he was 33/1 a couple of months ago., so if anyone took those odds it might not be that profitable for them.

I remember the days when Boris was odds on to be next out.

Always lay Boris?

Isn’t that why he was favourite to begin with?

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

SeanT said:

Frankly, I'm more astonished by the poor woman claiming rape at Lambeth Palace. There are HETEROSEXUALS in the Church of England???

I haven't heard this. Do you have a source?

On Channel 4 news.

Ah. So in effect a 'no' then.

Edited because smiley seems on reflection inappropriate for subject.

There was a good piece from Wolves 50 year on from "rivers of blood".

TheScreamingEagles said:

tpfkar said:

Wasn't there a discussion about Profumo earlier? How apt on the day the Defence secretary resigns. Or did someone know something and was dropping subtle hints...!?

Yup, I started it, and Miss CycleFree then piqued my curiosity.

Dear me, Mr Eagles...

Sandpit said:

MarqueeMark said:

We need to get rid of anyone else in Cabinet who might have to fall on their sword. Now. What we can't have is an open-ended series of Cabinet reshuffles.

Oh to be a fly on the wall if the PM asks the whips to open their little black books on the whole cabinet.

Better still, send for their MI5 files. "You should always send for ministers' MI5 files if you enjoy a good laugh."

Surely a promotion from within the department, not going to want a proper reshuffle now if she can avoid it.
Mark Lancaster then?

Edit. Pulpstar beat me to it.

Pulpstar said:

The logical chain would be Mark Lancaster being promoted to defence, and Johnny Mercer being given a junior defence post.

Not in current times, from 2013.

'Cameron cutie' Caroline Dinenage dumps husband to date Tory MP Mark Lancaster who walked out on baby

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/caroline-dinenage-mark-lancaster-cameron-2011834

SeanT said:

One small, fatal step closer to PM Corbyn. Gawd elp us.

Ah, Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.

If they need another junior Defence Minister my MP Andrew Murrison has been one, is a veteran, and is currently 'merely' a committee chair.

dr_spyn said:

anothernick said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm assuming at least one of the papers have something on him.

It does seem likely

Hard to imagine he is resigning solely because he put his hand on a woman's' knee 15 years ago.

Did he get wind of something else hitting the front pages in the morning.

Though there were quite a few -ve stories about MOD - sale of amphibious vessels, cuts to Marine numbers, cannibalisation of parts for subs and destroyers.

I work for an organisation that has links to the MoD and I havent heard of any new issues recently - there are always stories about project overruns, cock-ups etc and everyone knows there is pressure on the budget but Fallon seemed quite well-regarded as S of S in most quarters.

JonathanD said:

SeanT said:

One small, fatal step closer to PM Corbyn. Gawd elp us.

Ah, Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.

What has this to do with Brexit

I touched my own knee in public. I feel thoroughly ashamed.

SeanT said:

I really don't give a toss who fucks who, who spanks who and where, who likes it up the Athens bypass with an aubergine. I also can't exercised by some minister putting his hand on an adult womans knee, FFS. Sex has to begin somewhere.

Rape and child abuse are clearly different, but all I see so far is tedious tittle-tattle. Politicians like sex, shock, politicians like kinky sex, shock, some are even gay, shock.

What is the story?

Yet to emerge, or it is non-existent and his leaving for this reason is a pretext.

JohnO said:

Mrs May has been presented with the ideal opportunity for the required wide ranging Ministerial reshuffle, sweeping out the duds and promoting the younger talent. Sadly, she will probably flunk it.

Hear, hear.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/925806802582851592
Wait what? Is something worse coming out or something?

A hand on a knee 15 years ago.

I’m aware of the hand on knee story, but even I’m shocked that’s he’s resigning over that, given JHB’s response. That’s why I thought is something worse than that story coming out?

Hence why my initial reaction is did he just want out - if not that or that there is worse to come out, it does seem very odd. Sure, as the first big name to own up to something there might have been pressure to resign, but given JHB's response, I really didn't get the impression there was that much pressure, in fact I don't recall anyone even suggesting it.
Prior to this I would have had Fallon as a dark horse candidate for PM - stolid, but not as grey as Hammond, and had a bit of a talent for being an attack dog without provoking the sort of instinctual dislike of regular attack dogs.

Yes, I don’t remember any calls for Fallon to resign.

I remember that there a few people who thought Fallon could be PM. Personally, I was always unconvinced but not because I anticipated this happening! I doubted that Fallon, or indeed that any of the current cabinet members will be the best leader because there seems to be an obsession with this idea that the ‘new generation’ of Tories, will be the saviours of the Tory party.

Damn, I go to the gym and I lose my place among the tricoteuses.

calum said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925816221618057216

Yeah, that adds up. And others may be less willing to move the heck on than Brewer. Particularly if it was last year or something.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

The logical chain would be Mark Lancaster being promoted to defence, and Johnny Mercer being given a junior defence post.

Not in current times, from 2013.

'Cameron cutie' Caroline Dinenage dumps husband to date Tory MP Mark Lancaster who walked out on baby

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/caroline-dinenage-mark-lancaster-cameron-2011834

Jeez, is there anyone in politics who’s happily married and only shagging their wife?

Jonathan said:

I touched my own knee in public. I feel thoroughly ashamed.

Never mind that: your knee touched your hand. It should resign.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

JonathanD said:

SeanT said:

One small, fatal step closer to PM Corbyn. Gawd elp us.

Ah, Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.

Which Corbyn would be lumbered with if he takes over anytime soon.

And make so much better job of.

If Corbyn agreed to £50 billion+ for a FTA, which he would have to and uncontrolled free movement for a 5 year transition period he would instantly put in play Labour Leavers who stuck with Labour last time because he promised to back Brexit and end free movement.

That would certainly be the case if the next Tory leader is a Leaver.

brendan16 said:

SeanT said:

One small, fatal step closer to PM Corbyn. Gawd elp us.

Probably not until summer 2022 though. This government could limp on and on and on Major style.

The DUP are sitting pretty - able to demand what they want for five years and want Brexit too so won't wish to scupper that. An opportunity they may never get again.

They would have zero clout in a Corbyn minority government needing SNP, LD, Caroline Lucas and Lady Hermon votes to get legislation through.

How about JRM for Defence - might quite suit his style!

FIve years of extracting pork for NI.... They'll be heroes by then.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

The logical chain would be Mark Lancaster being promoted to defence, and Johnny Mercer being given a junior defence post.

Not in current times, from 2013.

'Cameron cutie' Caroline Dinenage dumps husband to date Tory MP Mark Lancaster who walked out on baby

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/caroline-dinenage-mark-lancaster-cameron-2011834

Jeez, is there anyone in politics who’s happily married and only shagging their wife?

David Cameron.

JRM and IDS and Hammond I would be more confident of, as well of course as May.

If we get resignations and a reshuffle over all this harassment nonsense how can we have resignations and a reshuffle over Brexit policy when we move to Stage 2 Trade negotiations next year ?

kle4 said:

Given his reasons for going, hopefully this will encourage more true accusations as people see there are consequences, even as there will no doubt be an increase in false accusations as well, since such is life.

Hopefully true but also sadly risk of false ones too - look at the Ted Heath investigation.

Some Hollywood actors are being exposed for alleged incidents from the mid 1980s - do they ever remember back that far to know if they did or not?

SeanT said:

I really don't give a toss who fucks who, who spanks who and where, who likes it up the Athens bypass with an aubergine. I also can't get exercised by some minister putting his hand on an adult womans knee, FFS. Sex has to begin somewhere.

Rape and child abuse are clearly different, but all I see so far is tedious tittle-tattle. Politicians like sex, shock, politicians like kinky sex, shock, some are even gay, shock.

What is the story?

english middle class bollocks as ever

you can go to Rotherham and shag chavs until youre drained because they dont count

but if it's a bit of middle class clunge totally different

the english really are warped shits at times.

This stuff will be the reason the EU will REALLY be laughing at us.

FFS, you call THAT a sex scandal?

brendan16 said:

kle4 said:

Given his reasons for going, hopefully this will encourage more true accusations as people see there are consequences, even as there will no doubt be an increase in false accusations as well, since such is life.

Hopefully true but also sadly risk of false ones too - look at the Ted Heath investigation.

Some Hollywood actors are being exposed for alleged incidents from the mid 1980s - do they ever remember back that far to know if they did or not?

Oh there will undoubtedly be false accusations - things need to not get out of hand, as we do want the inappropriate to stop being inappropriate (I would think at that level apology would be sufficient) and the truly vile to be exposed, but the innocent will be tested. That's abundantly clear given people who have not committed even an indiscretion were included on the sex pest list apparently, for their sexual quirks or infidelity, when frankly that's nobody's business.