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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many

In the aftermath of the June 8th general election so much was happening politically that not much attention was paid to the above YouGov polling carried out shortly afterwards.
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Things will be different next time.
Field mice might not like it very much.
doomed.
Good afternoon, everyone.
The Conservative manifesto/self-mutilation was a bigger help to Labour than Corbyn.
Of course, if you want to read a more recent analysis of an event where the reds came second, my post-race analysis is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/usa-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Amongst younger people - including my own children who had previously been sceptical - there was definitely a surge of support. In that sense I think he motivated more young people to turn out which had an obvious impact in places like Canterbury.
The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.
Always voted Labour 5
'You can not be serious!' he screamed, waving a tennis racquet about in an angry and aggressive style in his left hand. Shouldn't that figure be near the perceived floor for the party?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15YjlKdqKFETupccZOYV19bIe75QlpnHUyzS9CZqFHO8/edit#gid=0
PB Tories, underestimate Corbyn at your peril.
Before the disastrous Tory manifesto reveal, may was winning middle aged by a country mile.
May is incredibly disappointing PM (and that is being very kind) and also seems to have crap policies. Miliband-lite doesn't attract anybody
However, Hammond may shortly **** that up by taxing the elderly more in a vain effort to appeal to younger votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/oct/23/roman-polanski-marianne-barnard-allegations
If Corbyn remains leader, and if his supporters continue to delude themselves that the 2017 result was an endorsement of him, then Labour will lose the 2022 election.
Very disappointing he is covering the shooting of a man by the police and let the brother give the usual sob story / anti-police.
What wasn't given was the back story, which is the man shot was a convicted drug dealer, carrying an illegal firearm, had a record for shooting somebody and witness intimidation...and the police has seen been tried and found innocent of any wrong doing.
What else can he do but veer back towards New Labour/Tory Lite-ness? I don't think he will attract more supporters by getting more radical.
Then again, with the uselessness of the current Cons effort, he might just need to sit still and, to borrow a phrase, the ball may come loose from the back of the scrum...
And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.
The claims, made by former Olympic team doctor Xue Yinxian on German TV, refer to athletes using the substances in the 1980s and 1990s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/41723971
It's entirely possible that all carries itself into the next election, and then some, as the Tories suffer Brexit fallout, continue to infight, the country firms up behind the optimistic Left, and the electoral lifecycle for the Tories just times out.
Or, it's possible they get through Brexit in one piece, find a new leader who talks human and pulls them together, they come up with an attractive GE2022 manifesto, and Corbyn/McDonnell overreach themselves and frighten the horses. In which case, we might get another GE1992.
Whichever one it is will determine our destiny.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561
As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.
https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/922395274416410625
She got high on her own product of ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’
I know you're not a tory 'cos you told me so before!
I believe we should have a fully funded social care service for all, that individuals can opt out of and pay for their own (presumably superior service) if they want. But that's going to require more tax of course.
My challenge to you PAW, and others of a shall I say more right of centre persuasion, is: are you happy to pay higher taxes for such a service? If not what's your suggested way forward?
The second is still possible. Have you read a book called Apocalypse Delayed by Nick Tyrone? It's not very good as a whole package but it does make some interesting points about Corbyn's electoral coalition and its possible weaknesses.
Well, except against the dollar, the Euro and the Yen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm
This obvious bias does get tiresome.
If this interests you, try Sunstein's book "Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter" (very readable) and his treatise on legislation (with Kuran) 'Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation' (not so much).
Interestingly, he is the most cited legal scholar in the US and served in the Obama Adminstration
I have wondered whether the EU might lose its membership as a result of our withdrawal but nobody seems to be suggesting that so I'm guessing not.
(PS what will my premiums be at 57 with no back-history of payments? I dread to think!)
*I can't recommend the Handlebards too much - the best open-air company we have seen.
http://www.handlebards.com
It claims Merkel cannot afford a hard Brexit given the money that she is going to have to throw at her Coalition partners. It also contains this: "In 2016, Germany ran a trade surplus with the UK of €50.4bn — 1.6 per cent of German gross domestic product — the single-largest bilateral trade surplus with any country."
I'm not saying the author is right but that is quite a startling figure.
Edit, it is a figure which of course we should all be deeply ashamed of.
Edit - or more likely it's logistics, come to think of it, as we probably don't have a full time delegation there at present and will need one.
Personally I restrict my most racist, sexist and homophobic jokes mostly to in person.