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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many of his supporters maintain

In the aftermath of the June 8th general election so much was happening politically that not much attention was paid to the above YouGov polling carried out shortly afterwards.

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark

Corbyn was assumed not to be anywhere near to Number 10 in June. 2017 was a free vote (or non-vote) for many, for the first time since at least Blair's re-coronation in 2001. Even many of Corbyn's own MPs camapigned on the basis of "vote for me, not for him".

Things will be different next time.

RobD

Second!

RobD

I see VanillaForums has reacted well to the new thread

Blue_rog

When free owls are offered how could anyone dislike that!

AlastairMeeks

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

MarkHopkins

Blue_rog said:

When free owls are offered how could anyone dislike that!

Field mice might not like it very much.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

One could probably add "best of a bad bunch."

MarqueeMark

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

One could probably add "best of a bad bunch."

Was that Theresa's USP?

Penddu

My first two comments have disappeared.. lets see what happens to this one !!

BannedInParis

28 % have sat there and seriously cited "the moon on a stick" ...

doomed.

calum

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

Inteteresting to know how many folks either voted for other parties or stayed at home because of Corbyn.

Penddu

Hmm... OK - what I originally said was when the campaign started I had a very low opinion of JC - but he slowly grew on me - but I did not like Mc Donnell or Abbott and my view of them only gets worse the more I hear them.

Morris_Dancer

Repost from another dimension:
Good afternoon, everyone.

The Conservative manifesto/self-mutilation was a bigger help to Labour than Corbyn.

Of course, if you want to read a more recent analysis of an event where the reds came second, my post-race analysis is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/usa-post-race-analysis-2017.html

TOPPING

calum said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

Inteteresting to know how many folks either voted for other parties or stayed at home because of Corbyn.

And conversely how many voted for him on the assumption that he was a million miles from power. Plenty in my constituency.

anothernick

My experience on the doorstep during the election campaign was that attitudes to Corbyn changed quite considerably as polling day drew closer. At the start of the campaign he was cited as a negative by a large number of voters, though a much smaller number were very enthusiastic about him. As the campaign wore on his name came up less frequently - the enthusiasts were still there but the negativity gradually dropped away as people focused on other issues. I think people decided that the shrill Tory denunciations of his alleged extremism were wide of the mark and on reflection he was not as bad as they had been led to expect. Opinion of May moved rapidly in the opposite direction.

Amongst younger people - including my own children who had previously been sceptical - there was definitely a surge of support. In that sense I think he motivated more young people to turn out which had an obvious impact in places like Canterbury.

FrancisUrquhart

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

rottenborough

TOPPING said:

calum said:

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

Inteteresting to know how many folks either voted for other parties or stayed at home because of Corbyn.

And conversely how many voted for him on the assumption that he was a million miles from power. Plenty in my constituency.

This, imho, is the absolute key. I doubt people will make the same judgment next time.

philiph

Interesting finding in that poll that I find unbelievable.

Always voted Labour 5

'You can not be serious!' he screamed, waving a tennis racquet about in an angry and aggressive style in his left hand. Shouldn't that figure be near the perceived floor for the party?

AndyJS

How the proposed new constituencies might have voted at the 2017 election, from UKPollingReport:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15YjlKdqKFETupccZOYV19bIe75QlpnHUyzS9CZqFHO8/edit#gid=0

anothernick

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

Corbyn was assumed not to be anywhere near to Number 10 in June. 2017 was a free vote (or non-vote) for many, for the first time since at least Blair's re-coronation in 2001. Even many of Corbyn's own MPs camapigned on the basis of "vote for me, not for him".

Things will be different next time.

The polls suggest that he is more popular than last June. Meanwhile the Tories are making headless chickens look competent.

PB Tories, underestimate Corbyn at your peril.

FrancisUrquhart

anothernick said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

It wouldn’t have made much of a difference if hadn’t lost her massive lead among middle aged.

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

anothernick said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

It wouldn’t have made much of a difference if hadn’t lost her massive lead among middle aged.

I cannot see why the Tories should suddenly win back the middle aged.

Richard_Tyndall

philiph said:

Interesting finding in that poll that I find unbelievable.

Always voted Labour 5

'You can not be serious!' he screamed, waving a tennis racquet about in an angry and aggressive style in his left hand. Shouldn't that figure be near the perceived floor for the party?

I think that the question is asking the 'main' reason why someone voted Labour. I would hope there are actually very few people who would say "because I always vote this way" rather than having specific reasons. It certainly makes me view Labour voters in a more positive light if they are voting based on leadership or policies rather than just because that is the way they have always voted even if it is factually correct that they have always voted Labour.

FrancisUrquhart

anothernick said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

No. If may hadn’t lost her massive lead among middle aged an extra 3% would have made little difference (outside a few seats with massive student population), but this would have been outweighed by all the other seats tories would have won.

Before the disastrous Tory manifesto reveal, may was winning middle aged by a country mile.

FrancisUrquhart

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

anothernick said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

It wouldn’t have made much of a difference if hadn’t lost her massive lead among middle aged.

I cannot see why the Tories should suddenly win back the middle aged.

I am not saying they will.

May is incredibly disappointing PM (and that is being very kind) and also seems to have crap policies. Miliband-lite doesn't attract anybody

RobD

philiph said:

Interesting finding in that poll that I find unbelievable.

Always voted Labour 5

'You can not be serious!' he screamed, waving a tennis racquet about in an angry and aggressive style in his left hand. Shouldn't that figure be near the perceived floor for the party?

Not necessarily, it may not be the main motivator.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, they could, as the elderly dislike Corbyn.

However, Hammond may shortly **** that up by taxing the elderly more in a vain effort to appeal to younger votes.

FrancisUrquhart

Time for the academy to give him a standing ovation...

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/oct/23/roman-polanski-marianne-barnard-allegations

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

That's still 5% of Labour's vote which is attributable to him. That makes a big impact in seat count.

5% of the 40% vote is 2% of the vote, which is a 1% swing. That was the difference between a Tory majority and not.

Benpointer

What the thread header misses is that without Corbyn the manifesto would have been some weak, tory-lite waffle... Corbyn needs to get some credit for the manifesto-policies 28% imo.

stevef

Benpointer said:

What the thread header misses is that without Corbyn the manifesto would have been some weak, tory-lite waffle... Corbyn needs to get some credit for the manifesto-policies 28% imo.

But the manifesto was Corbyn backing down from his hard left position. It was much more moderate than expected

anothernick

FrancisUrquhart said:

anothernick said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

But that 3% won Labour about 20 extra seats and denied the Tories a majority. So it was absolutely critical.

No. If may hadn’t lost her massive lead among middle aged an extra 3% would have made little difference (outside a few seats with massive student population), but this would have been outweighed by all the other seats tories would have won.

Before the disastrous Tory manifesto reveal, may was winning middle aged by a country mile.

Of course if things had been different it wouldn't have been critical. But things weren't different and so it was.

Benpointer

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

stevef

More proof that if Labour had had a better leader at the election, it would be in power right now. We should remember that the manifesto was not a Corbynite manifesto but was much more moderate than expected. He promised to maintain the Thatcherite/ Blairite level of taxation, stole Blair's "Many not the Few" slogan, and did not promise to reverse the Tories benefit cap. Nor did he revisit many of the policies he supported in the 1983 suicide manifesto.

If Corbyn remains leader, and if his supporters continue to delude themselves that the 2017 result was an endorsement of him, then Labour will lose the 2022 election.

FrancisUrquhart

Just watching last night Louis Theroux documentary.

Very disappointing he is covering the shooting of a man by the police and let the brother give the usual sob story / anti-police.

What wasn't given was the back story, which is the man shot was a convicted drug dealer, carrying an illegal firearm, had a record for shooting somebody and witness intimidation...and the police has seen been tried and found innocent of any wrong doing.

RobD

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I thought it was Labour that was pushing the line hat the government were stealing grannies houses, dementia tax and all that?

Benpointer

anothernick said:

My experience on the doorstep during the election campaign was that attitudes to Corbyn changed quite considerably as polling day drew closer. At the start of the campaign he was cited as a negative by a large number of voters, though a much smaller number were very enthusiastic about him. As the campaign wore on his name came up less frequently - the enthusiasts were still there but the negativity gradually dropped away as people focused on other issues. I think people decided that the shrill Tory denunciations of his alleged extremism were wide of the mark and on reflection he was not as bad as they had been led to expect. Opinion of May moved rapidly in the opposite direction.

Amongst younger people - including my own children who had previously been sceptical - there was definitely a surge of support. In that sense I think he motivated more young people to turn out which had an obvious impact in places like Canterbury.

Good post Nick, very interesting, thanks.

TOPPING

Benpointer said:

What the thread header misses is that without Corbyn the manifesto would have been some weak, tory-lite waffle... Corbyn needs to get some credit for the manifesto-policies 28% imo.

Of course - it's why he won the leadership in the first place. But I wonder whether he has reached his ceiling. His appeal was his genuineness and the WYSIWYG element about what he brought to politics. Is that not also a limiting factor?

What else can he do but veer back towards New Labour/Tory Lite-ness? I don't think he will attract more supporters by getting more radical.

Then again, with the uselessness of the current Cons effort, he might just need to sit still and, to borrow a phrase, the ball may come loose from the back of the scrum...

DecrepitJohnL

Asking people to rationalise their voting decisions after the fact is a pretty dubious exercise in the first place.

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

I’m afraid you’ve been tainted for life....

PAW

Benpointer - Interesting how some PB socialists see paying for free social care for everybody else but being excluded oneself as being perfectly ok - and being charged 50% more on care costs - if it hits people who own a house.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

I’m afraid you’ve been tainted for life....

It is quite bizarre. You will be hard pressed to find many positive posts about the Tories from all my 1000s of posts on here.

FrancisUrquhart

Claims that more than 10,000 Chinese athletes used banned substances will be investigated by the World Anti-Doping Agency's intelligence unit.

The claims, made by former Olympic team doctor Xue Yinxian on German TV, refer to athletes using the substances in the 1980s and 1990s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/41723971

Casino_Royale

Corbyn did well because he offered an attractive populist vision, with a touch of stardust, that the Tories didn't really bother to refute, whilst the PM unveiled an empty vase, fell back on repeating tired soundbites, and Ratnered her own reputation in the process.

It's entirely possible that all carries itself into the next election, and then some, as the Tories suffer Brexit fallout, continue to infight, the country firms up behind the optimistic Left, and the electoral lifecycle for the Tories just times out.

Or, it's possible they get through Brexit in one piece, find a new leader who talks human and pulls them together, they come up with an attractive GE2022 manifesto, and Corbyn/McDonnell overreach themselves and frighten the horses. In which case, we might get another GE1992.

Whichever one it is will determine our destiny.

TOPPING

Dear god some Cons moron calling exiting on WTO terms a "silver lining".

williamglenn

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Roger

Completely OT. 'The death of Stalin' by Armando Iannucci for a comedy wasn't very funny. Nonetheless as a parable for our twisted political times it was a masterclass. What's more it was a splendid example of EU cooperation being a joint Belgium French and UK production.

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

Dear god some Cons moron calling exiting on WTO terms a "silver lining".

Those Hard Brexiting morons are mistaking a lining of Iridium & Strontium 90 for a silver lining.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Glenn, we're trying to leave and they're being incredibly intransigent. That rather lends weight to the prison perspective.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

Dear god some Cons moron calling exiting on WTO terms a "silver lining".

Those Hard Brexiting morons are mistaking silver lining for a lining of Iridium & Strontium 90.

Theresa May looks and sounds broken.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

Dear god some Cons moron calling exiting on WTO terms a "silver lining".

Those Hard Brexiting morons are mistaking silver lining for a lining of Iridium & Strontium 90.

Theresa May looks and sounds broken.

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.
https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/922395274416410625

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

Dear god some Cons moron calling exiting on WTO terms a "silver lining".

Those Hard Brexiting morons are mistaking silver lining for a lining of Iridium & Strontium 90.

Theresa May looks and sounds broken.

No one forced her to hold a snap election which pissed away Cameron’s majority.

She got high on her own product of ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just watching last night Louis Theroux documentary.

Very disappointing he is covering the shooting of a man by the police and let the brother give the usual sob story / anti-police.

What wasn't given was the back story, which is the man shot was a convicted drug dealer, carrying an illegal firearm, had a record for shooting somebody and witness intimidation...and the police has seen been tried and found innocent of any wrong doing.

Yeah, yeah but was the police officer willing to cry on camera?

DavidL

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

HYUFD

Other polling has also shown Corbyn has a lower favourability record than the Labour Party as a whole. Therefore if Corbyn does become PM it will most likely be at the head of a minority government rsther than the majority government another Labour leader may be able to achieve.

Benpointer

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

Sorry FU, they were meant to be two separate points: lots PB tories being hypocritical re social care policy and... what do you (FU) think the alternative is? Re-reading, I can see it looks like I have lumped you into the category 'PB tories'

I know you're not a tory 'cos you told me so before!

DavidL

Roger said:

Completely OT. 'The death of Stalin' by Armando Iannucci for a comedy wasn't very funny. Nonetheless as a parable for our twisted political times it was a masterclass. What's more it was a splendid example of EU cooperation being a joint Belgium French and UK production.

It seemed a really weird topic for a comedy. Would it be fair to assume that there is some extended metaphor going on for more recent events?

Richard_Tyndall

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Of course they will. They will blame anyone but themselves and their precious project. Just like you do. You are both deluded.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

Social insurance.

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

There is actually a really interesting Sam Harris podcast from a couple of weeks ago with Cass R. Sunstein, talking about some recent research that shows putting people of similar but differing opinions leads to the group tending to the most extreme position and also that they will reject any facts that doesn't fit the group think.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Of course the EU failing to give any significant concessions to Cameron before the vote whatsoever and Blair for failing to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 also share a large share of the blame for Brexit.

Scott_P

williamglenn said:

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.

@tnewtondunn: Boris quotes Hamlet when asked about Brexit. A play about a prince racked with indecision about how to grab his nation's crown #CHLondon

Benpointer

PAW said:

Benpointer - Interesting how some PB socialists see paying for free social care for everybody else but being excluded oneself as being perfectly ok - and being charged 50% more on care costs - if it hits people who own a house.

A PB socialist?... I can only aspire to that accolade - I confess I voted LD last time (and the time before).

I believe we should have a fully funded social care service for all, that individuals can opt out of and pay for their own (presumably superior service) if they want. But that's going to require more tax of course.

My challenge to you PAW, and others of a shall I say more right of centre persuasion, is: are you happy to pay higher taxes for such a service? If not what's your suggested way forward?

Yorkcity

Does every member of the WTO including Russia have to agree to the UK becoming an Independent member ?

ydoethur

stevef said:

More proof that if Labour had had a better leader at the election, it would be in power right now...
If Corbyn remains leader, and if his supporters continue to delude themselves that the 2017 result was an endorsement of him, then Labour will lose the 2022 election.

Wrong on the first point, because Corbyn's biblical awfulness and terrible polll ratings were the only reason the election was called. If Cooper had been leader May would not have risked it.

The second is still possible. Have you read a book called Apocalypse Delayed by Nick Tyrone? It's not very good as a whole package but it does make some interesting points about Corbyn's electoral coalition and its possible weaknesses.

Benpointer

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.

@tnewtondunn: Boris quotes Hamlet when asked about Brexit. A play about a prince racked with indecision about how to grab his nation's crown #CHLondon

I am cheered by the thought that it ended badly for Hamlet

DavidL

BBC Business Live reports Sterling down on political uncertainty. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-41705222

Well, except against the dollar, the Euro and the Yen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

This obvious bias does get tiresome.

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

Dear Jean Claude, referendum results are not like Luxembourg tax returns where you take off a few percent. You're expected to get something as simple as the figures right.

MTimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

There is actually a really interesting Sam Harris podcast from a couple of weeks ago with Cass R. Sunstein, talking about some recent research that shows putting people of similar but differing opinions leads to the group tending to the most extreme position and also that they will reject any facts that doesn't fit the group think.

Sunstein co-wrote Nudge with Thaler, the new Nobel Laureate.

If this interests you, try Sunstein's book "Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter" (very readable) and his treatise on legislation (with Kuran) 'Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation' (not so much).

Interestingly, he is the most cited legal scholar in the US and served in the Obama Adminstration

kle4

A dangerously provocative stance to take toward the man who won the GE, Mike.

ydoethur

Yorkcity said:

Does every member of the WTO including Russia have to agree to the UK becoming an Independent member ?

We already are. So no.

I have wondered whether the EU might lose its membership as a result of our withdrawal but nobody seems to be suggesting that so I'm guessing not.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

Social insurance.

Presumably compulsory? If so it's a tax by any other name - cf National Insurance. If not, the state (i.e. we taxpayers) will still end up picking up the tab for those who failed to insure themselves.

(PS what will my premiums be at 57 with no back-history of payments? I dread to think!)

DavidL

Benpointer said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.

@tnewtondunn: Boris quotes Hamlet when asked about Brexit. A play about a prince racked with indecision about how to grab his nation's crown #CHLondon

I am cheered by the thought that it ended badly for Hamlet

And pretty much everyone else on the stage IIRC. Hey ho.

FrancisUrquhart

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

There is actually a really interesting Sam Harris podcast from a couple of weeks ago with Cass R. Sunstein, talking about some recent research that shows putting people of similar but differing opinions leads to the group tending to the most extreme position and also that they will reject any facts that doesn't fit the group think.

Sunstein co-wrote Nudge with Thaler, the new Nobel Laureate.

If this interests you, try Sunstein's book "Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter" (very readable) and his treatise on legislation (with Kuran) 'Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation' (not so much).

Interestingly, he is the most cited legal scholar in the US and served in the Obama Adminstration

He has a new book coming titled #Republic : divided democracy in the age of social media, which interestingly was commissioned before Trump.

kle4

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Decrying the impact of others being negative is not much of an excuse - the EU forgot it needed to justify itself beyond imperious arrogance (this can be seen in its labelling of any criticism at the time as 'populism', and making noises about needing to reform which they never adequately followed up), and since the result has repeatedly been called a shock most of them were surprised more than 50% of the British public did not think they had justified its existence.

kle4

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

I’m afraid you’ve been tainted for life....

I know the feeling.

williamglenn

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Decrying the impact of others being negative is not much of an excuse - the EU forgot it needed to justify itself beyond imperious arrogance (this can be seen in its labelling of any criticism at the time as 'populism', and making noises about needing to reform which they never adequately followed up), and since the result has repeatedly been called a shock most of them were surprised more than 50% of the British public did not think they had justified its existence.

Surely it's for the member states to justify their continued membership to their electorates each time there is an election. The EU is not a prison and it's members are democracies.

Benpointer

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.

@tnewtondunn: Boris quotes Hamlet when asked about Brexit. A play about a prince racked with indecision about how to grab his nation's crown #CHLondon

I am cheered by the thought that it ended badly for Hamlet

And pretty much everyone else on the stage IIRC. Hey ho.

Indeed! We saw a simply brilliant open performance of Hamlet 'played for comedic effect' by the Handlebards* a few years ago. Since there are only four of them they co-opt audience members for non-speaking parts... At the end of Hamlet the 'stage' was littered with audience members who made the misatke of sitting in at the front.

*I can't recommend the Handlebards too much - the best open-air company we have seen.
http://www.handlebards.com

Jonathan

Corbyn really nailed it today in HoC. Whatever the politics, he has really grown into the job. A long way from his initial PMQs.

anothernick

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Of course the EU failing to give any significant concessions to Cameron before the vote whatsoever and Blair for failing to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 also share a large share of the blame for Brexit.

Possibly. But that is not helpful in moving us on from the current demarche. Many Tories told us that Brexit would be a cinch and there would be no noticeable downside. They now have to explain why they were wrong.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

I don't say that. That is how it was portrayed in the media and was the general take away most people had from what the policy alleged was.

And for about the billion-th time, I am not a Tory. I voted for the Tories for the very first time at a GE this year purely as an anti-Corbyn vote.

I’m afraid you’ve been tainted for life....

I know the feeling.

It's called a blue rinse

MTimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

There is actually a really interesting Sam Harris podcast from a couple of weeks ago with Cass R. Sunstein, talking about some recent research that shows putting people of similar but differing opinions leads to the group tending to the most extreme position and also that they will reject any facts that doesn't fit the group think.

Sunstein co-wrote Nudge with Thaler, the new Nobel Laureate.

If this interests you, try Sunstein's book "Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter" (very readable) and his treatise on legislation (with Kuran) 'Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation' (not so much).

Interestingly, he is the most cited legal scholar in the US and served in the Obama Adminstration

He has a new book coming titled #Republic : divided democracy in the age of social media, which interestingly was commissioned before Trump.

Thanks. I'll check it out. If you haven't read "Wiser", do. It really goes into this polarizing issue.

Yorkcity

ydoethur said:

Yorkcity said:

Does every member of the WTO including Russia have to agree to the UK becoming an Independent member ?

We already are. So no.

I have wondered whether the EU might lose its membership as a result of our withdrawal but nobody seems to be suggesting that so I'm guessing not.

Thanks a Labour MP asked May in parliament , she replied the government is putting measures in place to ensure that the UK can be an independent member of the WTO.

TOPPING

Benpointer said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

They all do, even Boris in his own way. This performance is beyond embarrassing for a British Foreign Secretary.

@tnewtondunn: Boris quotes Hamlet when asked about Brexit. A play about a prince racked with indecision about how to grab his nation's crown #CHLondon

I am cheered by the thought that it ended badly for Hamlet

It ended badly for everyone.

Richard_Tyndall

Yorkcity said:

Does every member of the WTO including Russia have to agree to the UK becoming an Independent member ?

We have been a member since the formation of the WTO. But as a member of the EU we have ceded our voting rights to them. Leaving the EU does not change our position as a member but it does return our voting rights to us.

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

Corbyn was assumed not to be anywhere near to Number 10 in June. 2017 was a free vote (or non-vote) for many, for the first time since at least Blair's re-coronation in 2001. Even many of Corbyn's own MPs camapigned on the basis of "vote for me, not for him".

Things will be different next time.

That's a very risky thing to assume. Particularly since the Tory brand has taken a hit since then, and will be years older and tireder next time an election comes, meaning there's no guarantee that those who might have voted differently this time, had they realised it was so close, will be inclined the same way next time.

DavidL

A different view in the FT of all places: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/merkel’s-costly-coalition-offers-may-a-route-to-brexit/ar-AAtRFx0?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=iehp

It claims Merkel cannot afford a hard Brexit given the money that she is going to have to throw at her Coalition partners. It also contains this: "In 2016, Germany ran a trade surplus with the UK of €50.4bn — 1.6 per cent of German gross domestic product — the single-largest bilateral trade surplus with any country."

I'm not saying the author is right but that is quite a startling figure.

Edit, it is a figure which of course we should all be deeply ashamed of.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, that does sound like a case of bias akin to Sky's infamous 0.1% spike in inflation (but more so).

ydoethur

Yorkcity said:

ydoethur said:

Yorkcity said:

Does every member of the WTO including Russia have to agree to the UK becoming an Independent member ?

We already are. So no.

I have wondered whether the EU might lose its membership as a result of our withdrawal but nobody seems to be suggesting that so I'm guessing not.

Thanks a Labour MP asked May in parliament , she replied the government is putting measures in place to ensure that the UK can be an independent member of the WTO.

I would assume those are 'just in case someone decides to behave like an utter tool and causes trouble' measures then, as we already are independent members.

Edit - or more likely it's logistics, come to think of it, as we probably don't have a full time delegation there at present and will need one.

kle4

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

Decrying the impact of others being negative is not much of an excuse - the EU forgot it needed to justify itself beyond imperious arrogance (this can be seen in its labelling of any criticism at the time as 'populism', and making noises about needing to reform which they never adequately followed up), and since the result has repeatedly been called a shock most of them were surprised more than 50% of the British public did not think they had justified its existence.

Surely it's for the member states to justify their continued membership to their electorates each time there is an election. The EU is not a prison and it's members are democracies.

All those participating in a project share in that responsibility, I would think. The Commission and the Council have big impacts, they clearly have a role to play in acknowledging concerns, and continually making the organisation seem attractive, rather than moaning all the time and getting angry when people don't automatically accept their word.

FrancisUrquhart

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Interesting comment from Juncker:
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/922477621522370561

As we move into the crisis phase of the negotiations, expect to see more comments from European politicians pointing the finger squarely at the Eurosceptics for getting the UK into this mess.

So he has presumably not read that research linked to the other day explaining how we discount information or facts that don't fit our world view.

There is actually a really interesting Sam Harris podcast from a couple of weeks ago with Cass R. Sunstein, talking about some recent research that shows putting people of similar but differing opinions leads to the group tending to the most extreme position and also that they will reject any facts that doesn't fit the group think.

Sunstein co-wrote Nudge with Thaler, the new Nobel Laureate.

If this interests you, try Sunstein's book "Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter" (very readable) and his treatise on legislation (with Kuran) 'Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation' (not so much).

Interestingly, he is the most cited legal scholar in the US and served in the Obama Adminstration

He has a new book coming titled #Republic : divided democracy in the age of social media, which interestingly was commissioned before Trump.

Thanks. I'll check it out. If you haven't read "Wiser", do. It really goes into this polarizing issue.

Thanks...that is my winter vacation reading sorted....I am also going to re-read Thinking Fast and Slow.

Anorak

kle4 said:

A dangerously provocative stance to take toward the man who won the GE, Mike.

First against the wall, etc, etc.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The other myth was that it was the corbyn led to rise of the yuff vote and that is what won it for labour. However they only added about 3% to labour score, but it was the collapse of the Tory lead amongst the middle aged that did for the Tory majority.

The likes of the Tory threats to nick your house if you go gaga killed them.

Interesting how some PB tories see paying for your own social care as the government some how 'nicking' your house. What's the alternative FU?

Social insurance.

Presumably compulsory? If so it's a tax by any other name - cf National Insurance. If not, the state (i.e. we taxpayers) will still end up picking up the tab for those who failed to insure themselves.

(PS what will my premiums be at 57 with no back-history of payments? I dread to think!)

It is compulsory in Japan and the Netherlands.

kle4

I see Guido has been going after the Sheffield Hallam MP today, not for the first time. Anyone know why, particularly? Sounds like the guy has been a real bell-end in the past, but its not as though that is something so unusual to be worthy of such attention.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

I see Guido has been going after the Sheffield Hallam MP today, not for the first time. Anyone know why, particularly? Sounds like the guy has been a real bell-end in the past, but its not as though that is something so unusual to be worthy of such attention.

I get the feeling, a bit like the Guardian fills column inches by FOI requests, Staines fills content by having his minions search through people's social media history.

kle4

DavidL said:

A different view in the FT of all places: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/merkel’s-costly-coalition-offers-may-a-route-to-brexit/ar-AAtRFx0?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=iehp

It claims Merkel cannot afford a hard Brexit given the money that she is going to have to throw at her Coalition partners. It also contains this: "In 2016, Germany ran a trade surplus with the UK of €50.4bn — 1.6 per cent of German gross domestic product — the single-largest bilateral trade surplus with any country."

I'm not saying the author is right but that is quite a startling figure.

Edit, it is a figure which of course we should all be deeply ashamed of.

I would be, if I knew of any way that it could be significantly changed.

Anorak

DavidL said:

A different view in the FT of all places: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/merkel’s-costly-coalition-offers-may-a-route-to-brexit/ar-AAtRFx0?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=iehp

It claims Merkel cannot afford a hard Brexit given the money that she is going to have to throw at her Coalition partners. It also contains this: "In 2016, Germany ran a trade surplus with the UK of €50.4bn — 1.6 per cent of German gross domestic product — the single-largest bilateral trade surplus with any country."

I'm not saying the author is right but that is quite a startling figure.

Edit, it is a figure which of course we should all be deeply ashamed of.

Most of the deficit was, of course, caused by the nationalisation of certain UK industries. The car industry being foremost amongst them.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

I see Guido has been going after the Sheffield Hallam MP today, not for the first time. Anyone know why, particularly? Sounds like the guy has been a real bell-end in the past, but its not as though that is something so unusual to be worthy of such attention.

I get the feeling, a bit like the Guardian fills column inches by FOI requests, Staines fills content by having his minions search through people's social media history.

Probably true, although its that it is not the first time he's honed in on the guy that catches my eye. It may just be there are not that many newly elected MPs who have been as incautious in previous lives online.

Personally I restrict my most racist, sexist and homophobic jokes mostly to in person.