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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited October 2017


    It would be in line with Macron's thinking before he was elected.

    https://monocle.com/magazine/issues/101/eyes-on-the-elysee/

    EM: I am a hard Brexiter. I think that Europe has made a mistake negotiating the inter-governmental accord [the “special status” deal David Cameron struck with the EU in February last year]. It created a precedent, which is that a single state can twist the European debate to its own interests. Cameron was toying with Europe and we agreed to go along with it, which was a big mistake.

    Of course, no other state has ever tried to manipulate things in Europe to suit their own interests. I don't see much clarity of thinking or principle there, just a regular politician pinning blame for things on someone else in incredibly simplistic fashion in a way that plays well to his audience.

    I have great respect for Macron getting to the presidency, and it appears he may even be able to make some credible achievements too and well done him for that, but on that issue his analysis seems as one note and blinkered as anybody else commenting on this debate.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678

    " I always say I’m agnostic because I’d like there to be a God – a nice liberal one – but I can’t be sure there is and the idea of regular religious observance unnerves me because it would be unusual in my peer group."

    There are many like Mitchell who aren't willing to say, think or do anything that sits uncomfortably within their peer group.
    Yes, though to be fair Mitchell is mildly satirising himself.
  • PAW said:

    "We’ll be publishing analysis of what a “no deal” Brexit would mean for prices in the shops on Tuesday..." - surely any price rises or import restrictions would be under the control of the UK government - why would they do that?

    Import restrictions : the blockade of trucks leaving the UK for the EU. The "20 square kilometres of lorry parks" that the CEO of a major British port said was needed is because a hard border, even one only imposed on their side, slows traffic to a stop. And trucks stuck on the M20 can't bring products back through to the UK. And that's the cost - food for example will skyrocket in price overnight because 1/3rd is imported even "made" in the UK food.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Will Selmayr be there?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    edited October 2017




    What, like Boris?

    Possibly, yes. But if his literary knowledge is as good as reputed, he doesn't mention it much.

    As Yokel in effect says, it doesn't mean the politician knows much about the price of fish. But it would be nice to have politicians who don't ONLY know about the price of fish.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    AndyJS said:

    There seems to be some disagreement as to which party has come second in the Austrian election. Wikipedia (and others) have the Freedom Party ahead of the Social Democrats by 27.4% to 26.7% for example but alternative sources are putting the Social Democrats in second place by 26.9% to 26.0%.

    That's personal votes, counted today. It's projected that Postal Votes, counted tomorrow, will favour the Left wing parties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Yeah fuck books innit. Surprised to hear you say so, though - you come across as someone who reads quite a lot of spy fiction.
    It's a fair point, though.

    Let's say Jeremy Hunt were to become PM and, say, state publicly that his favourite books were those of Ian Fleming. The howls of outrage from the Guardian that the PM's love for books awash with "sexism", "racism", and "imperalism" spoke volumes about him and his agenda for the nation would wake the dead in Godalming. George Monbiot would lay an egg.

    There are only the right kinds of politicians reading the right kind of books.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    So the BBC report on the guidance claim is incorrect in saying question on every face to face contact if the info isn't there, essentially badgering people?
    Simple. Refusing to answer is one of the answers, and doesn't need asking again.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    It's a fair point, though.

    Let's say Jeremy Hunt were to become PM and, say, state publicly that his favourite books were those of Ian Fleming. The howls of outrage from the Guardian that the PM's love for books awash with "sexism", "racism", and "imperalism" spoke volumes about him and his agenda for the nation would wake the dead in Godalming. George Monbiot would lay an egg.

    There are only the right kinds of politicians reading the right kind of books.
    Which is what happened to Boris over "Mandalay".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    The latter seems to be correct according to the main Austrian TV station ORF:

    http://orf.at/live/1901-OeVP-voran-SPOe-vor-FPOe/

    though that's before postal votes are counted (which might just get the Greens back in, incidentally).
    The Greens are currently well below the threshold. Postal votes will taker them close, but probably not over it.

    Overall, this has been a poor year for Green Parties. Many of their voters prefer radical socialists to hippies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Possibly, yes. But if his literary knowledge is as good as reputed, he doesn't mention it much.

    As Yokel in effect says, it doesn't mean the politician knows much about the price of fish. But it would be nice to have politicians who don't ONLY know about the price of fish.
    The problem is, I'm not sure many know (metaphorically) the price of fish.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    It's a fair point, though.

    Let's say Jeremy Hunt were to become PM and, say, state publicly that his favourite books were those of Ian Fleming. The howls of outrage from the Guardian that the PM's love for books awash with "sexism", "racism", and "imperalism" spoke volumes about him and his agenda for the nation would wake the dead in Godalming. George Monbiot would lay an egg.

    There are only the right kinds of politicians reading the right kind of books.
    Houllebecq is possibly one of the most controversial living authors. He has faced his fair share of accusations of sexism, misogyny and islamophobia.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    It's a fair point, though.

    Let's say Jeremy Hunt were to become PM and, say, state publicly that his favourite books were those of Ian Fleming. The howls of outrage from the Guardian that the PM's love for books awash with "sexism", "racism", and "imperalism" spoke volumes about him and his agenda for the nation would wake the dead in Godalming. George Monbiot would lay an egg.

    There are only the right kinds of politicians reading the right kind of books.
    The book that Macron is discussing "Submission" is a dystopic tale of an emasculated France that gives in and becomes an Islamic state. Hardly a politically correct book.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    Yes, Kurier is speculating that the FPO might even form a coalition with the social democrats (who against expectations didn't lose votes) - seems unlikely to me, but I'm no kind of Austrian expert.
    SPO/FPO is unlikely, but not unprecedented. They formed a coalition in Burgenland.

    Norway, Greece, New Zealand are examples in recent years of populist right wing parties opting to support left wing parties in office.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    kle4 said:

    Of course, no other state has ever tried to manipulate things in Europe to suit their own interests. I don't see much clarity of thinking or principle there, just a regular politician pinning blame for things on someone else in incredibly simplistic fashion in a way that plays well to his audience.

    I have great respect for Macron getting to the presidency, and it appears he may even be able to make some credible achievements too and well done him for that, but on that issue his analysis seems as one note and blinkered as anybody else commenting on this debate.
    I just don't see how any British politician could have squared the EU question once-and-for-all in the UK given how inflexible the EU is on the permitted boundaries of European debate. It was politically unsustainable, and that goes for both Labour and Conservatives premiers.

    Of course, it's possible that it resolves itself via a chastened UK coming grovelling back to the EU, this time signing up for the lot, with tacit and somewhat sullen public support - the williamglenn theory - but, I think that's rather unlikely.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    RochdalePioneers - I suppose imports from the USA, South America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa wouldn't be using the Channel ports. Trade from half the world comes into https://www.peelports.com/campaigns/liverpool2.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2017



    Simple. Refusing to answer is one of the answers, and doesn't need asking again.

    More to the point, exactly what use are the data?

    There are obvious and serious biases in the way the data are being collected. There are huge selection effects that will dwarf any signal and will have to be properly modelled.

    To extract anything reliable from this data will be expensive and time-consuming. And the results will have large error bars.

    Do tell us how the NHS plan to model the data.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390

    The book that Macron is discussing "Submission" is a dystopic tale of an emasculated France that gives in and becomes an Islamic state. Hardly a politically correct book.
    Fair enough, but I think my point still holds for the UK.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    The English have always been suspicious of pontificating intellectuals, unlike France.

    On the plus side, it's saved us from destructive ideologies.

    So far..
    SeanT for PM?
  • PAW said:

    RochdalePioneers - I suppose imports from the USA, South America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa wouldn't be using the Channel ports. Trade from half the world comes into https://www.peelports.com/campaigns/liverpool2.

    We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    I give as little personal information as I can to the state because I simply do not trust state agencies to keep such information safe or secure. See, for instance, the loss of the child benefit disks.

    And, frankly, in the wrong hands such information can be misused.

    I feel much the same about private companies

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    More to the point, exactly what use are the data?

    There are obvious and serious biases in the way the data are being collected. There are huge selection effects that will dwarf any signal and will have to be properly modelled.

    To extract anything reliable from this data will be expensive and time-consuming. And the results will have large error bars.

    Do tell us how the NHS plan to model the data.
    Sure, but Public Health Physicians are very good at understanding the limitations of the data.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    edited October 2017

    We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
    I thought they were saying the existing suppliers and supply lines would be more expensive.

    How they can pontificate with certainty about unknown trading conditions, unknown tariffs, unknown exchange rates and demand is a miracle.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
    So they could have an agenda, prepare us for higher prices regardless and profiteer.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
    No deal does not mean we get no food at all from the EU, it just means there may potentially be tariffs on it and it would be more expensive but consumers could still buy it if they wished and the same applies to British food and drink in the EU which would also still be available but at a higher price.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Sure, but Public Health Physicians are very good at understanding the limitations of the data.
    Do tell us how it will be analysed, as you have been so eloquent in wanting it gathered.

    Can you not see the selection effects will have to be modelled before any use can be made of it?

    And the selection effects are close to being impossible to model.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Sure, but Public Health Physicians are very good at understanding the limitations of the data.
    I would have thought that any doctor worth his/her salt would ask a patient about their sexuality if they felt it relevant to a diagnosis/treatment.

    What else is such information used for?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
    Do you think that the forecasts they choose to put into the public domain might be coloured to help them achieve their corporate objectives? (Presumably the lowest amount of effort/investment plus the highest prices)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Cyclefree said:

    I give as little personal information as I can to the state because I simply do not trust state agencies to keep such information safe or secure. See, for instance, the loss of the child benefit disks.

    And, frankly, in the wrong hands such information can be misused.

    I feel much the same about private companies

    I suspect we would all be appalled if we were to know the level of information collated about each of us. By both state and private databasese.
  • We import 25% of our food from the EU. Could other sources be found? No - if the other sources were reliable and less expensive we'd already be using them. No deal means less choice and higher prices.

    At least that's what's the ports the manufacturers the retailers the haulers are saying. What the fuck would they know? Need some more optimistic forecasts obviously
    I believe you are wrong about the other sources. For example beef imports from outside the EU are subject to a quota - there is a maximum amount we are allowed to import - and also a 20% tariff although the tariff is waived for some African countries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited October 2017
    BBC news at 10pm found 2 Leave voters who say they are prepared to pay more for food to get Brexit but blame 'Project Fear', Remain voters more concerned unsurprisingly
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    I suspect we would all be appalled if we were to know the level of information collated about each of us. By both state and private databasese.
    Agree. No reason, though, to give ‘em more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Oops.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/britains-missing-billions-revised-figures-reveal-uk-490bn-poorer/

    Britain is £490billion poorer than thought and no longer has any reserve of net foreign assets to help protect against any damage to the economy from Brexit.

    The revision to the national accounts in the ONS’s so-called Blue Book means that the UK’s net international investment position has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn - equivalent to a quarter of GDP.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I suspect we would all be appalled if we were to know the level of information collated about each of us. By both state and private databasese.
    Google knows far more about me than the NHS!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    NEW THREAD
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    Sure, but Public Health Physicians are very good at understanding the limitations of the data.
    Glad I'm not an EU tomato, cucumber, early potato or courgette grower. How will I get paid for rotten produce? Maybe I could flood the rest of the EU market and watch prices dive down.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    I increasingly wonder if it's Merkel and Macron who are the problem.
    Merkel won't cut May any slack because the latter has a headbanger faction to keep onside, as the Greek PM also discovered. Merkel doesn't think it's her problem.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390

    I suspect we would all be appalled if we were to know the level of information collated about each of us. By both state and private databasese.
    I would like to see legislative change on this.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    RochdalePioneers - "The majority of British lowland arable farms are compelled to cease growing on at least 15 per cent of their acreage. This year, an area the size of Surrey will be out of production.".

    And why not more of this http://www.edp24.co.uk/business/farming/uk-s-largest-tomato-greenhouse-is-really-making-the-grade-for-local-freshness-1-4015151. I would much prefer food grown locally than picked green and trailed across Europe.

    Going to take some time, but the UK government could support the change.
  • Charles said:

    Do you think that the forecasts they choose to put into the public domain might be coloured to help them achieve their corporate objectives? (Presumably the lowest amount of effort/investment plus the highest prices)
    Answering your point but HYUFD and philliph as well. The entire food industry - retailers, suppliers, wholesalers, manufacturers - is increasingly concerned. This isn't about profit this is about survival. The big supermarkets make slim margins for their size and complexity - and it's tighter still for the medium and smaller players who supply them and the tens of thousands of smaller stores.

    The imposition of a hard border and customs checks - even if only one sided - will create severe disruption to the industry. Which adds cost that business can't afford and neither can consumers.

    But again, I read that armchair ideologues know more than the people who actually work the detail professionally every day. Experts - traitors obviously...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    FF43 said:

    Merkel won't cut May any slack because the latter has a headbanger faction to keep onside, as the Greek PM also discovered. Merkel doesn't think it's her problem.
    That would be the same Merkel who has just seen a far right party take 13% of the vote and her own party score its lowest vote since WW2?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    Answering your point but HYUFD and philliph as well. The entire food industry - retailers, suppliers, wholesalers, manufacturers - is increasingly concerned. This isn't about profit this is about survival. The big supermarkets make slim margins for their size and complexity - and it's tighter still for the medium and smaller players who supply them and the tens of thousands of smaller stores.

    The imposition of a hard border and customs checks - even if only one sided - will create severe disruption to the industry. Which adds cost that business can't afford and neither can consumers.

    But again, I read that armchair ideologues know more than the people who actually work the detail professionally every day. Experts - traitors obviously...
    Well if the EU refuses to compromise on any terms other than 50 to 100 billion euros and uncontrolled free movement they better start making contingency plans then because there will be no deal.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    I would have thought that any doctor worth his/her salt would ask a patient about their sexuality if they felt it relevant to a diagnosis/treatment.

    What else is such information used for?

    It is baffling. It might have saved time in identifying what AIDS actually was if this information had been available, I suppose; I can't see how it would help monitor HIV nowadays because we now know what it is, and as you say the question would be asked as being relevant to treatment. If something entirely new crops up which preferentially affects the gay or the straight it might help a bit. Beyond that, anything interesting it throws up is going to be at least as controversial as it is interesting, and they'll have to put as much work into suppressing their conclusions as they did into reaching them.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    We don't really have to import chocolate from Poland, we can bring back production to Bourneville and York - the EU doesn't grow the cocoa beans. And the EU doesn't grow coffee either, but it does stop us buying ground coffee from African suppliers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    PAW said:

    We don't really have to import chocolate from Poland, we can bring back production to Bourneville and York - the EU doesn't grow the cocoa beans. And the EU doesn't grow coffee either, but it does stop us buying ground coffee from African suppliers.

    No it doesn't. Ground coffee is tariff and quota free for most of Africa today.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    No it doesn't. Ground coffee is tariff and quota free for most of Africa today.
    What is the advantage in importing it ready ground?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    HYUFD said:

    Well if the EU refuses to compromise on any terms other than 50 to 100 billion euros and uncontrolled free movement they better start making contingency plans then because there will be no deal.
    I think if there's no deal, the Government falls.

    It simply isn't strong enough in Parliament to pass the extra legislation and budgets that would be required to deal with it, and it'd need another term to bed in all the changes anyway, which it would be unlikely to get.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What is the advantage in importing it ready ground?
    It's tariff and quota free raw for those countries too but the anti-EU brigade have a narrative that the EU uses tariff escalation to force high value processing to be located in the EU rather than at source.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,390
    FF43 said:

    Merkel won't cut May any slack because the latter has a headbanger faction to keep onside, as the Greek PM also discovered. Merkel doesn't think it's her problem.
    Indeed so, but firstly, that's Merkel being very short-sighted, and secondly, the UK isn't Greece and actually could just cut and run although, admittedly, it would cost us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    I think if there's no deal, the Government falls.

    It simply isn't strong enough in Parliament to pass the extra legislation and budgets that would be required to deal with it, and it'd need another term to bed in all the changes anyway, which it would be unlikely to get.
    It can then go to the country on a platform of not paying 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU for a deal
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    No it doesn't. Ground coffee is tariff and quota free for most of Africa today.
    Processed coffee, meaning instant is so over priced I'm amazed anyone buys it. Not only over priced but verging on undrinkable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    edited October 2017

    Indeed so, but firstly, that's Merkel being very short-sighted, and secondly, the UK isn't Greece and actually could just cut and run although, admittedly, it would cost us.
    Short-sighted Merkel let in the migrants - and ended up with 13% of Germans voting for Fascists and losing her coalition.

    Edit: I see HYUFD has already made the identical point....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Indeed so, but firstly, that's Merkel being very short-sighted, and secondly, the UK isn't Greece and actually could just cut and run although, admittedly, it would cost us.
    Is it shortsighted of Merkel? The headbangers are the problem. Merkel is saying, sort them out. She may be doing us a favour in the long run?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    FF43 said:

    Is it shortsighted of Merkel? The headbangers are the problem. Merkel is saying, sort them out. She may be doing us a favour in the long run?
    You say headbanhgers.

    I say those who have a democatic mandate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419

    I think if there's no deal, the Government falls.

    It simply isn't strong enough in Parliament to pass the extra legislation and budgets that would be required to deal with it, and it'd need another term to bed in all the changes anyway, which it would be unlikely to get.
    Which is why Corbyn will vote against any deal, no matter how much he likes it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Someone didn’t get the optimism memo:

    She will be told in no uncertain terms by Juncker and Barnier that even if talks on our future relationship with the EU were to start in January - which as I say is by no means certain - that relationship is seen by EU governments and officials as fraught with complexities and difficult-to-resolve issues of principle.

    So for what it’s worth, the proposals in our recent position papers on everything from data flows to customs checks are seen as naive and unworkable - largely because we are perceived as not having accepted that we are to become a third party, a stranger to them, no longer a member of the family.

    My powerful impression is that the rest of the EU sees the UK government as less hostile than it was, but considerably more muddled.


    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-10-15/theresa-may-brexit-barnier-juncker/
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