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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson v Philip Hammond, who leaves their cabinet position first
Paddy Power have a market up on who out of Boris Johnson and Phil Hammond will leave their cabinet position first. I’ve spent the last couple of hours thinking about this market, and trying to come to a definitive view.
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- Macron is not getting involved in Brexit ("I don't give a f***. Angela tells me hard Brexit is good for her so let her have it")
- France has clearly communicated that a deal will be done over Ireland. No one wants to jeopardise the peace process
- France doesn't want a deal on residency rights. They want to kick out 300k expensive Brits and get back 1.4 taxpayers. It's worth at least 500m eur per year
- France also believes that constitutionally they can't do a deal on residency. Equality of all citizens is fundamental. Giving 1.4m citizens preferential access to a second (v g) jobs market is preferential
- Merkel thinks hard Brexit is worth 1pp off her unemployment rate and 0.5pp off her NAIRU. She thinks that full employment will solve the AfD issue.
- the price for trade talks is eur 50bn
Interesting post from Charles, thanks!
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/919501410244399105
Edit - and returning the 1.4 m French is not within his control....
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/919563664486780928
https://twitter.com/joeheenan/status/918035798339055616
Where are they now?
Of course a Corbyn Labour victory would still ultimately lead to hard Brexit, just with socialism on top!
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/monster-rats-the-size-of-cats-found-on-south-london-housing-estate-a3226916.html
Theresa's Night Of The Long Knives?
Hammond likeliest to go first, I think. Fewer allies, no?
Though she did that when she became PM, and that turned out to be a disaster for her, the party, and the country.
Wonder if he has been speaking to his dad.
The disillusionment with Hammond is increasingly widely spread covering both Brexiteers and Remainers alike. Boris has followers, if not quite as many as he did. If May has to make another catastrophic decision, just to show how tough she is, Hammond is the less risky target.
Of course, given May's judgment to date it is not hard to argue the reverse...
I don’t recall posting how I felt about the idea, although you are right in assuming that I’m not keen on the Conservatives.
Though in his defence, he's got the Leadbangers on his case, it can't be easy, Sam Coates pointed out yesterday that a no deal Brexit means tax revenues could drop by £60 billion per annum, that's got to mess with a Chancellor's mind.
Of course if Corbyn does become PM in 6 months he then has to deal with Brexit and probably navigate a minority government and try and put his unaffordable policies into practice, so the Tories would not be too distraught at that
2. True, as far as clause 1 but in the course of watching, and participating in elections since about 1950, I’ve never known the Tories NOT distraught at losing! However, since Corbyn will probably be relying on the Euro-Conservatives to stay in power, he probably won’t be too ‘socialist’.
Though of course private insurance companies could take security against a dementia sufferer's house if needed but that would be their choice to do that
Corbyn would be reliant on the SNP and LDs to stay in power, leaving the field of opposition clear for the Tories.
I am going off thinking too much about the quality of our political leaders, it is beyond depressing. Of the present government the only one who seems capable of exercising critical faculties for more than the length of an interview is Gove. And he annoys the hell out of too many people.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-kurds-iraq-kirkuk/kurds-block-iraqi-forces-access-to-kirkuks-oil-fields-airbase-idUSKBN1CK0BX?il=0
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/852152/maths-competition-gaelic-scots-answer
PAW, so you asked half the question , it was just an open test and one question was to be answered in EITHER Gaelic or Scots. There should be no-one that cannot answer in Scots. So perfectly sensible and a bit of fun. I would expect a toilet paper rag like the express try to make something of it.
I would be shocked if any English speaking person could not understand the question. The Scottish person was obviously a mean spirited unionist tw*t as I suspected.
We say they're awful, but there are not many better places to live in.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-say-au-revoir-to-france-over-two-million-french-people-now-live-abroad-and-most-are-crossing-9788348.html
Just as in 1992 Labour's defeat led to Blair 2 years later and the removal of clause 4 and creation of New Labour and 13 years of Labour rule.
Labour's win in 1974 and the Tory win in 1992 were probably better for the country but for the victorious parties they were probably worse off in the long-run as a result.
Being boring, keeping your head down & not saying very much can get you quite far, until you have to deal with crises, put your head above the parapet and say stuff (Hi Theresa!).