politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January

HYUFD said:

Hillary says she will not run again for President.

not_on_fire said:

HYUFD said:

not_on_fire said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.

The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.

Something also backed by Corbyn you mean? Only the LDs and SNP want to stay in the single market, both the Tories and Corbyn Labour do not

What Corbyn supports is irrelevant to the point here. You can’t claim to be fiscal responsibility when pursuing the economic insanity of hard brexit.

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The key to this market is working out the price for Boris Johnson leaving the role. This could happen in one of four ways.

1) He jumps.
2) He is pushed.
3) Someone else (e.g. Philip Hammond) jumps or is pushed and he is moved into that role.
4) Theresa May is replaced and he occupies a different role in the new government.

There are only a few weeks to go before the end of the year but those weeks look likely to be eventful. The Conservatives look unstable at present. Evens looks about right to me for the sum of these possibilities.

If he goes, he will be replaced by a heavyweight. So most of the options given can be scored out on that basis. Michael Gove, Damian Green and perhaps Sajid Javid look fair value. I'd choose the latter. He's an experienced Cabinet minister, not a headbanger and would represent a fresh start with EU opposite numbers, confounding many Brussels stereotypes about the UK. But would the headbangers accept him?

Me, I'm not betting on this, mind.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

Hillary says she will not run again for President.

Thank goodness for that!

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.

The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.

Yes, that's the way I see it too. Its just that the level of the burden has become crushing for far too many people and needs to be addressed. Personally, I would like to see grants introduced for those from disadvantaged backgrounds, even if they only offset some of the fees.

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

freetochoose said:

Monksfield said:

freetochoose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Essexit said:

TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?

Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

Oh wait.

Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time

I was thinking of Peter Mandelson, neither an MP nor a peer when he was brought into the cabinet by Gordon Brown in 2008, who then ennobled Mandy.

Yep, Shami Chakrabarti is in the Shadow Cabinet, she wasn't elected by anybody.

There are always unelected Lords in the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet.

Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.

My point is I'm rather fond of democracy.

I understand you don't care for it, but I'm happy to side with the electorate.

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.

How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.

AlastairMeeks said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.

In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

It won't happen while they're in government. The bridges are burned.

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.

How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.

Universities are publically funded institutions of strategic importance to the country. There is no way that the government can simply remove itself from the process. And we can't afford to give everyone a fund, there is no money left. I would not be against the idea that those doing multi-year apprenticeships for high skilled jobs should have access to funds on the same generous terms as students though. We need more and better alternatives to arts degrees which do so little to boost the earning capacity of the recipients (ducks).

The creative sector of the economy actually brings in a lot of revenue, we need some arts graduates but probably not as many as we have at the moment.

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

AlastairMeeks said:

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.

In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

No deal is not a good result.

But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

Logically impossible, if Labour attack the Tories for agreeing no deal because the EU is demanding too much money the Tories will simply ask Labour how much they are willing to pay the EU then

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

freetochoose said:

not_on_fire said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.

The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.

You state a hypothetical situation as fact. Their insistence is based on what the electorate (remember them?) instructed them to do.

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.

The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.

Morning all,

Who is telling him the answer is 9?

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.

DavidL said:

Dura_Ace said:

DavidL said:

Metatron said:

Find it very odd that Priti Patel the Foreign Aid secretary (and a brexiteer) is 16/1 whilst her deputy Rory Stewart is 10/1.

Something to do with talent maybe?

He's been in the army and everything.

Not really but he has had an astonishing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart

By far the most boring part of it has been being a Tory MP. Unless that is made more interesting for him I fear he will be off doing something else all too soon.

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.

Morning all,

Who is telling him the answer is 9?

My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.

not_on_fire said:

HYUFD said:

not_on_fire said:

freetochoose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.

The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.

Something also backed by Corbyn you mean? Only the LDs and SNP want to stay in the single market, both the Tories and Corbyn Labour do not

What Corbyn supports is irrelevant to the point here.

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Essexit said:

TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?

Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

Oh wait.

Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.

Because, as a Civil Servant just said on R5...
"This year we are mostly doing Brexit."

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

tlg86 said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Completely O/T but when did maths change?

My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

6/2(1+2) = X

When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.

Morning all,

Who is telling him the answer is 9?

My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.

Excel says 9.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

snip

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.

Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple of it but not the main issue.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea truly pathetic.

I disagree, assets overproblem.

Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.

Sean_F said:

MJW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.

When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.

Corbyn also backs Brexit and May tried fiscal responsibility last time, probably too much, she should have eased back a little on the austerity rhetoric and gone harder on tax cuts and Labour's tax rise plans rather than proposing the disastrous dementia tax

Labour don't need to claim fiscal responsibility. From their viewpoint it's enough for the Conservatives to lose the right to make that claim.

This is perhaps the most pervasive effect of Brexit on the Tories. There's obviously been a cultural backlash, but it's more that in pursuing it, even at the people's instruction, they've lost the right to pose as responsible caretakers of the economy who'll keep things ticking over while people get on with their lives. That was always the Tories' greatest attraction and their founding Burkean principle - but of course the Brexiteers forgot that and demanded revolution without stopping to think that they rarely turn out how you'd like as the destruction of the status quo creates a Year 0 where anything goes. Lots of voters who endorsed Cameron because he was "getting on with the job" have now reluctantly embraced Corbyn because if we're not concerned about fiscal responsibility any more, you might as well go for the guy who a) didn't cause this mess and b) would be spending on you out of altruism. Even if it's true it's difficult to argue the point that his socialism would be a unique economic disaster when you appear to be intent on enacting one yourself.

Getting rid of austerity won't help tackle that, ssible.

As it happens, the Conservatives do still have a big lead over Labour on the economy.

And, millions of voters are very keen on Brexit. You win some voters, and you lose others.

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

.

The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

"Tony Blair explained his priorities in three words: education, education, education, I can do it in three letters: NHS."

People believe that they've already paid for the social care through their NI contributions.

What the Conservatives should have done was put social care under the NHS and, very publicly, increase NHS funding (without mentioning its extra responsibilities).

To pay for the extra funding increase taxes on property or a levy on unpopular businesses.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

.

This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.

Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.

Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut

I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.

Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.