FPT on that argument about under-40s not understanding socialist economics...
The other day I had to explain to my 22 year old wife what interest rates were. Not the intricacies, but the entire concept of borrowing money, and the bank charging you for that, along with the allied concepts of saving, and being paid for it, and laying down capital for a mortgage, which was also tied to these weird things called "interest rates".
She had no clue. And she's very smart (if a bit scatter brained, as she would admit). She got grade As at A level, despite a chaotic schooling, she got into SOAS, speaks fluent Spanish and decent Hindi.
We have raised a generation with no basic grasp of economics, which may explain Corbynism, I fear.
I think you will find your wife is in a very small sheltered minority of that generation. All my nephews and nieces understand it very well... they see it charged on the credit card bills each month, and half of them know only too well what it's doing to their university fee loans.
Fair enough.
But the fact that 25% of people want to "nationalise" travel agents does point to a fair bit of economic ignorance. And I am sure part of it is generational: the liberal capitalist consensus has reigned so long people have forgotten the basic facts behind it.
Absolutely right. And those in favour of it have forgotten how to argue for it - and in a way which resonates with people. Assertion is not argument.
You have to keep winning arguments and be willing to make the case for your cause constantly and at every possible opportunity. Taking it for granted that the argument is won or self-evident is utter complacency.
Similarly, that Tory member vote suggesting that Corbyn was unlikely to be PM was the epitome of complacency. The world will be different in a few years and the sort of leader is .
Boris only beat Livingstone because he was a charismatic fighter able to connect with people
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
That's a good point, but whether you call it austerity or something else, what did happen was real income stagnation for most middle and lower income working families. Over the same period, the wealthiest and those who have retired have continued to do well. That will come to haunt the Tories at the next GE imho.
The idea that the Conservatives don't have enough manpower to actually run the next election campaign seems very hyperbolic to me. But nonetheless it is no doubt that most young people getting involved in politics at the moment Have signed up to Labour. I think there is a pretty good bet that there is a future prime minister who has just got back from Brighton. The question is whether he or she will be a Labour Prime Minister.
Not only is the current Tory party quite possibly smaller than the LDs, they are apparently in 2017 average 72 years old, compared to 65 years in 2015.
If the numbers are dropping as per the header, then not only are members leaving, they are the younger members.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
The idea that the Conservatives don't have enough manpower to actually run the next election campaign seems very hyperbolic to me. But nonetheless it is no doubt that most young people getting involved in politics at the moment Have signed up to Labour. I think there is a pretty good bet that there is a future prime minister who has just got back from Brighton. The question is whether he or she will be a Labour Prime Minister.
Not only is the current Tory party quite possibly smaller than the LDs, they are apparently in 2017 average 72 years old, compared to 65 years in 2015.
If the numbers are dropping as per the header, then not only are members leaving, they are the younger members.
That's a very dramatic change in 2 years. Where did you get your data from?
Governing parties always lose members (and you have talk of the party facing "oblivion") then when the party eventually leaves government "renewal" occurs in Opposition.
@Cyclefree said: Absolutely right. And those in favour of it have forgotten how to argue for it - and in a way which resonates with people. Assertion is not argument.
You have to keep winning arguments and be willing to make the case for your cause constantly and at every possible opportunity. Taking it for granted that the argument is won or self-evident is utter complacency.
Similarly, that Tory member vote suggesting that Corbyn was unlikely to be PM was the epitome of complacency. The world will be different in a few years and the sort of leader is not someone who beat a tired Livingstone a decade earlier but a fighter: a passionate, eloquent fighter, able to speak to people in a way which resonates, and with a real desire to make things better for the country above all, not primarily concerned about their ego.
There is a problem here though. The argument for the status quo needs to explain why there have been falling real wages for 10 years. Is that because of too much or too little liberal capitalism? And did the GFC happen because of too much regulation or not enough?
The Conservatives have not really begun to even ask these questions, let alone answer them. They have not had a full leadership election for 12 years where such problems could be hammered out.
The last one indeed was won by, we are going to be quiet about Europe and be nice to gays, ethnic minorities and single mothers, and if you don't agree please shut up, 'cos we are sick of losing. (Simplified, but you get my drift. It was a very different time).
That is why, if May goes, a coronation or stitch-up won't be good enough.
You can't win a battle of ideas if you do't know or aren't sure what your ideas are.
Agree. You need to have something to say. The Tories don't know what to say. Casting around for a leader in those circumstances is pointles.
They need to start thinking......hard.
It's the mirror image of Labour moderates who also had nothing to say and lost to someone who did.
The GFC happened because we turned finance into a God to be worshipped, had the wrong type of regulation and were ineffective at it to boot. I wrote a whole thread header on it earlier this year.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
That's a good point, but whether you call it austerity or something else, what did happen was real income stagnation for most middle and lower income working families. Over the same period, the wealthiest and those who have retired have continued to do well. That will come to haunt the Tories at the next GE imho.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Here's what is going to happen: the tories are going to sit in the middle of the railway tracks dickering about hard brexits and the leadership and by the new year they will have been wiped out by a sodding great express train thundering down on them marked UNIVERSAL CREDIT COCKUP. That and an nhs crisis will give us a second winter of discontent and put them out of power for a generation.
Only kidding, of course, because what could possibly go wrong with a grandiose scheme dreamed up as make-work to keep the Quiet Man quiet?
No Universal Credit is vital to ensure people can actually do some work even for a few hours a week without losing all their benefits.Corbyn Labour of course has few qualms about keeping people permanently on welfare which is why they oppose it. The scheme may need adjustment, that does not mean it is wrong
The principle is irreproachable. It is cockups in implementing it which will be the tories' downfall - families running out of rent and heating and food money during its introduction. And it's not me saying this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41433019.
There are a few cock ups in implementing it but those affected will almost all be Labour voters anyway.
That does not excuse the failures but it is only by getting them into the workplace that they may consider moving to the Tories
You do not fill me with confidence that you know what you are talking about.
It is a stated fact that the unemployed and those dependant on benefits vote overwhelmingly Labour those who earn a wage rather less so
So where do pensioners fit in to that generalisation?
Pensioners are overwhelmingly Tory and most of them had jobs before they retired and paid into their pension pot when working
For the umpteenth time, there is no state pension "pot". Yesterday's workers paid for yesterday's pensioners, today's workers pay for today's pensioners and tomorrow's workers pay for tomorrow's pensioners.
There is a problem here though. The argument for the status quo needs to explain why there have been falling real wages for 10 years. Is that because of too much or too little liberal capitalism? And did the GFC happen because of too much regulation or not enough?
The Conservatives have not really begun to even ask these questions, let alone answer them. They have not had a full leadership election for 12 years where such problems could be hammered out.
The last one indeed was won by, we are going to be quiet about Europe and be nice to gays, ethnic minorities and single mothers, and if you don't agree please shut up, 'cos we are sick of losing. (Simplified, but you get my drift. It was a very different time).
That is why, if May goes, a coronation or stitch-up won't be good enough.
You can't win a battle of ideas if you do't know or aren't sure what your ideas are.
Agree. You need to have something to say. The Tories don't know what to say. Casting around for a leader in those circumstances is pointles.
They need to start thinking......hard.
It's the mirror image of Labour moderates who also had nothing to say and lost to someone who did.
The GFC happened because we turned finance into a God to be worshipped, had the wrong type of regulation and were ineffective at it to boot. I wrote a whole thread header on it earlier this year.
Yes, Labour had that debate (twice). It is good you have thought about GFC, (I remember your header), but you aren't in the Cabinet! The Tories have spent so long blaming Labour for it, they haven't given any thought about the longer-term issues involved.
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
Well, fair enough: it is true that there is some scope to raise more tax within reason, provided you are honest about it and don't pretend that it will all be paid for by 'the rich'. Most of it would have to come from the upper middle band - say £50K+, because that's where the numbers are and where the scope for rearranging their affairs is less.
Of course, any tax rise is not without damage as well - Corporation tax in particular is not the freebie that those on the left think it is.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
Higher income tax and higher wealth tax will inevitably have to hit a lot of middle class voters but at least you are honest about it
Here's what is going to happen: the tories are going to sit in the middle of the railway tracks dickering about hard brexits and the leadership and by the new year they will have been wiped out by a sodding great express train thundering down on them marked UNIVERSAL CREDIT COCKUP. That and an nhs crisis will give us a second winter of discontent and put them out of power for a generation.
Only kidding, of course, because what could possibly go wrong with a grandiose scheme dreamed up as make-work to keep the Quiet Man quiet?
No Universal Credit is vital to ensure people can actually do some work even for a few hours a week without losing all their benefits.Corbyn Labour of course has few qualms about keeping people permanently on welfare which is why they oppose it. The scheme may need adjustment, that does not mean it is wrong
The principle is irreproachable. It is cockups in implementing it which will be the tories' downfall - families running out of rent and heating and food money during its introduction. And it's not me saying this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41433019.
There are a few cock ups in implementing it but those affected will almost all be Labour voters anyway.
That does not excuse the failures but it is only by getting them into the workplace that they may consider moving to the Tories
You do not fill me with confidence that you know what you are talking about.
It is a stated fact that the unemployed and those dependant on benefits vote overwhelmingly Labour those who earn a wage rather less so
So where do pensioners fit in to that generalisation?
Pensioners are overwhelmingly Tory and most of them had jobs before they retired and paid into their pension pot when working
For the umpteenth time, there is no state pension "pot". Yesterday's workers paid for yesterday's pensioners, today's workers pay for today's pensioners and tomorrow's workers pay for tomorrow's pensioners.
Yesterday's workers paid National Insurance and those payments are then used as their entitlement to receive the state pension once they reach state pension age
FPT on that argument about under-40s not understanding socialist economics... We have raised a generation with no basic grasp of economics, which may explain Corbynism, I fear.
I think you will find your wife is in a very small sheltered minority of that generation. All my nephews and nieces understand it very well... they see it charged on the credit card bills each month, and half of them know only too well what it's doing to their university fee loans.
Fair enough.
But the fact that 25% of people want to "nationalise" travel agents does point to a fair bit of economic ignorance. And I am sure part of it is generational: the liberal capitalist consensus has reigned so long people have forgotten the basic facts behind it.
Absolutely right. And those in favour of it have forgotten how to argue for it - and in a way which resonates with people. Assertion is not argument.
You have to keep winning arguments and be willing to make the case for your cause constantly and at every possible opportunity. Taking it for granted that the argument is won or self-evident is utter complacency.
Similarly, that Tory member vote suggesting that Corbyn was unlikely to be PM was the epitome of complacency. The world will be different in a few years and the sort of leader is .
Boris only beat Livingstone because he was a charismatic fighter able to connect with people
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a team (several teams really - cabinet, MPs, the Party, No 10 etc), or that he can deliver on what would likely be very ambitious promises. He has a flexible relationship with the truth and the joke would no doubt wear thin very quickly. it's one thing being a mayor, where a bit of flamboyant showmanship is useful; it's wholly different leading a government. Boris' attitude and instincts are completely wrong and I'd rather have a(nother) dull technocrat than an overgrown teenager.
FPT: I wonder whether Remain Tories should put much favour on Amber Rudd. Whether the current perception of the Home Office's so called Hostile Environment immigration policy is based on a small number of atypical cases in which people who are entitled to be in the UK by virtue of the EU are being incorrectly harassed, or is more widespread, such a perception demands that the EU be very firm on there being ECJ enforcement.
As such it is quite possible a disorderly Brexit could end up being laid at Rudd's doorstep.
FPT on that argument about under-40s not understanding socialist economics... We have raised a generation with no basic grasp of economics, which may explain Corbynism, I fear.
I think you will find your wife is in a very small sheltered minority of that generation. All my nephews and nieces understand it very well... they see it charged on the credit card bills each month, and half of them know only too well what it's doing to their university fee loans.
Fair enough.
But the fact that 25% of people want to "nationalise" travel agents does point to a fair bit of economic ignorance. And I am sure part of it is generational: the liberal capitalist consensus has reigned so long people have forgotten the basic facts behind it.
Absol.
Boris only beat Livingstone because he was a charismatic fighter able to connect with people
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a team (several teams really - cabinet, MPs, the Party, No 10 etc), or that he can deliver on what would likely be very ambitious promises. He has a flexible relationship with the truth and the joke would no doubt wear thin very quickly. it's one thing being a mayor, where a bit of flamboyant showmanship is useful; it's wholly different leading a government. Boris' attitude and instincts are completely wrong and I'd rather have a(nother) dull technocrat than an overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
Boris only beat Livingstone because he was a charismatic fighter able to connect with people
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux. We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a team (several teams really - cabinet, MPs, the Party, No 10 etc), or that he can deliver on what would likely be very ambitious promises. He has a flexible relationship with the truth and the joke would no doubt wear thin very quickly. it's one thing being a mayor, where a bit of flamboyant showmanship is useful; it's wholly different leading a government. Boris' attitude and instincts are completely wrong and I'd rather have a(nother) dull technocrat than an overgrown teenager.
Not to mention he can get quite shirty when under persistent questioning. His "Sod off" at the GLA meeting might go down well once or twice, but would wear thin PDQ if repeated on more important matters.
Judging by that Sun article, it looks like there will soon be a vacancy at the Foreign Office, which will be helpful.
He has said he wants a transition period no longer than the 2 years May has set out, she cannot sack him for that
She doesn't need to sack him, he's setting up an excuse to resign.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
I'm not sure I agree with that. If May had won a big majority, the hard Brexit wing of the Tories would have been emboldened, and would have felt less constrained in pushing for a hard line in negotiations.
'So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do'
His timing is stupid and is likely to lose him support in the party. I am mixed on him but as you may have seen with my attitude to Theresa, loyalty is important right now, and Boris trying to put down a marker is unnecessary
Judging by that Sun article, it looks like there will soon be a vacancy at the Foreign Office, which will be helpful.
He has said he wants a transition period no longer than the 2 years May has set out, she cannot sack him for that
She doesn't need to sack him, he's setting up an excuse to resign.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
She did not get her mandate because of the dementia tax proposals not because of any huge desire for 'soft Brexit'
'So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do'
His timing is stupid and is likely to lose him support in the party. I am mixed on him but as you may have seen with my attitude to Theresa, loyalty is important right now, and Boris trying to put down a marker is unnecessary
He is making the point, a point backed by the clear majority of the party, that any transition period should last no longer than 2 years
I'm not sure I agree with that. If May had won a big majority, the hard Brexit wing of the Tories would have been emboldened, and would have felt less constrained in pushing for a hard line in negotiations.
They would have had much less power to push her around, and her political capital would have been immense. Now it's zero or negative. It was a catastrophic result for anyone who wants a sensible agreement with our EU friends, who now can't even be sure that she could keep her side of any bargain they might strike.
Judging by that Sun article, it looks like there will soon be a vacancy at the Foreign Office, which will be helpful.
He has said he wants a transition period no longer than the 2 years May has set out, she cannot sack him for that
She doesn't need to sack him, he's setting up an excuse to resign.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
She did not get her mandate because of the dementia tax proposals not because of any huge desire for 'soft Brexit'
'So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do'
His timing is stupid and is likely to lose him support in the party. I am mixed on him but as you may have seen with my attitude to Theresa, loyalty is important right now, and Boris trying to put down a marker is unnecessary
He is making the point, a point backed by the clear majority of the party, that any transition period should last no longer than 2 years
It is him making the headlines and getting the media all over his leadership campaign that is just crass when the party needs total unity and a stage for Theresa May to role out some eye catching policies hopefully for the young, public sector pay, housing, and above all else the merging of the NHS and social care
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a team (several teams really - cabinet, MPs, the Party, No 10 etc), or that he can deliver on what would likely be very ambitious promises. He has a flexible relationship with the truth and the joke would no doubt wear thin very quickly. it's one thing being a mayor, where a bit of flamboyant showmanship is useful; it's wholly different leading a government. Boris' attitude and instincts are completely wrong and I'd rather have a(nother) dull technocrat than an overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
Judging by that Sun article, it looks like there will soon be a vacancy at the Foreign Office, which will be helpful.
He has said he wants a transition period no longer than the 2 years May has set out, she cannot sack him for that
She doesn't need to sack him, he's setting up an excuse to resign.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
She did not get her mandate because of the dementia tax proposals not because of any huge desire for 'soft Brexit'
Both factors applied.
She won at least as many former UKIP voters as she lost Remainers over Brexit, it was the dementia tax though which saw a net Tory loss to Labour
'So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do'
His timing is stupid and is likely to lose him support in the party. I am mixed on him but as you may have seen with my attitude to Theresa, loyalty is important right now, and Boris trying to put down a marker is unnecessary
He is making the point, a point backed by the clear majority of the party, that any transition period should last no longer than 2 years
It is him making the headlines and getting the media all over his leadership campaign that is just crass when the party needs total unity and a stage for Theresa May to role out some eye catching policies hopefully for the young, public sector pay, housing, and above all else the merging of the NHS and social care
She can do all that but as Foreign Secretary he was making clear the position the party membership wants to hear on the transition period and Brexit
The idea that the Conservatives don't have enough manpower to actually run the next election campaign seems very hyperbolic to me. But nonetheless it is no doubt that most young people getting involved in politics at the moment Have signed up to Labour. I think there is a pretty good bet that there is a future prime minister who has just got back from Brighton. The question is whether he or she will be a Labour Prime Minister.
Not only is the current Tory party quite possibly smaller than the LDs, they are apparently in 2017 average 72 years old, compared to 65 years in 2015.
If the numbers are dropping as per the header, then not only are members leaving, they are the younger members.
That's a very dramatic change in 2 years. Where did you get your data from?
It was quoted here the other day, but sorry I cannot recall the source.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
That would be the last 25 years in which Labour have been in government for more than half of the time...
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a teaman overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
Being PM does not require a great eye for detail, all it requires is the ability to set the general direction for the country and ministers, be tough and tenacious, have a broad appeal to the public and preferably some charisma.
Against Corbyn the safe option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, Corbyn is running as the candidate against the status quo, the Tories need a leader who is not simply of the status quo establishment
The idea that the Conservatives don't have enough manpower to actually run the next election campaign seems very hyperbolic to me. But nonetheless it is no doubt that most young people getting involved in politics at the moment Have signed up to Labour. I think there is a pretty good bet that there is a future prime minister who has just got back from Brighton. The question is whether he or she will be a Labour Prime Minister.
Not only is the current Tory party quite possibly smaller than the LDs, they are apparently in 2017 average 72 years old, compared to 65 years in 2015.
If the numbers are dropping as per the header, then not only are members leaving, they are the younger members.
That's a very dramatic change in 2 years. Where did you get your data from?
It was quoted here the other day, but sorry I cannot recall the source.
Over the last fifty years I have, apart from 2015 and 2017, always helped in election campaigns. The vast majority of us who helped were not members. Indeed I only joined in the last two years
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
Pointing at pot holes gets old. Pointing at dog poo is the new grime in LD land.
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
The Lib Dems are neither Liberal nor Democratic. Their name is as accurate as the old GDR name for East Germany.
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
IMO Corbyn can be beaten. All it needs are some proper political thinking and some actual policies. Resppnsible Capitalism will beat Socialism. I don't see BJ being a political thinker. I think May is too weak to take on vested interests and end irresponsible Capitalism. GO maybe could have but must have burnt his bridges. A reinvigorated Tory Party with a heart would win but is that likely?? Who knows.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a teaman overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
Being PM does not require a great eye for detail, all it requires is the ability to set the general direction for the country and ministers, be tough and tenacious, have a broad appeal to the public and preferably some charisma.
Against Corbyn the safe option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, [snip]
Before the world's worst election campaign and manifesto, the Tories were 20+ points clear. Being the safe option was working perfectly well.
Even after the world's worst election campaign and manifesto, the Tories still won 43% and 50+ seats more than Labour.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
It is people like you who sold this country out to the EU. I don't wish you a long and lingering death though. I want you to live long enough to see all your nasty sordid plans turned to dust.
I don't know for sure, but I would imagine a couple of the last few comments may have been the wrong way round.Just a guess. I need to find other interests!
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a teaman overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
Being PM does not require a great eye for detail, all it requires is the ability to set the general direction for the country and ministers, be tough and tenacious, have a broad appeal to the public and preferably some charisma.
Against Corbyn the safe option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, Corbyn is running as the candidate against the status quo, the Tories need a leader who is not simply of the status quo establishment
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
The Lib Dems are neither Liberal nor Democratic. Their name is as accurate as the old GDR name for East Germany.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
The Lib Dems are neither Liberal nor Democratic. Their name is as accurate as the old GDR name for East Germany.
But the LDs may well now have more members than the Tories.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's a teaman overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
Being PM does not require a great eye for detail, all it requires is the ability to set the general direction for the option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, [snip]
Before the world's worst election campaign and manifesto, the Tories were 20+ points clear. Being the safe option was working perfectly well.
Even after the world's worst election campaign and manifesto, the Tories still won 43% and 50+ seats more than Labour.
They did indeed but they will only hold that and even increase it if they have a charismatic leader who connects and will take the fight to Labour on tax etc ie Boris
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a teaman overgrown teenager.
In your view. Sadly the public beg to differ in the polls and they ultimately elect the government.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
The polls are irrelevant. The polls said that the public loved Theresa May before the election (or at least, that they had great confidence in her). Our job as analysts is to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's going on.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
Being PM does not require a great eye for detail, all it requires is the ability to set the general direction for the country and ministers, be tough and tenacious, have a broad appeal to the public and preferably some charisma.
Against Corbyn the safe option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, Corbyn is running as the candidate against the status quo, the Tories need a leader who is not simply of the status quo establishment
Interesting article. Includes this, er, useful piece of insight: "The Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce has previously attributed the decline to Cameron's prominent support for gay marriage, reporting that thousands "ripped up their membership cards and refused to renew their subscriptions."
With views like that, I am sure they will soon put all their troubles to right
The Tories could promise to reverse gay marriage and end all immigration tomorrow and bring back hanging and they would probably see a surge in membership however that does not mean they would be more likely to win the next general election in fact probably the reverse
I doubt if they'd even see an increase in membership tbh. I suspect the future will judge them as having run aground on the rock of Austerity, delivered with the best of intent but it's sapped too much hope and belief from the under 40s.
The most popular conservative messages in the polls are reducing immigration, especially low skilled immigration, a tough line on law and order and national security, reducing welfare and cutting taxes for average and low income earners and cutting inheritance tax like it or not.
Austerity is less popular admittedly but that does not mean it was not necessary
Or even that it happened.
Spending as a percentage of gdp at least has fallen significantly
Yes - that's a big part of the problem!
So which taxes would you raise to pay for higher spending?
Corporation tax, income tax, plus some sort of wealth or land value tax.
I'd reintroduce the dog licence at a rate of £100 a year. That would encourage responsible pet ownership and maybe make are parks and streets safer so there's not dog shit everywhere
Doesn't sound especially liberal or democratic.
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
The Lib Dems are neither Liberal nor Democratic. Their name is as accurate as the old GDR name for East Germany.
The GDR was at least German. And a republic, of sorts, for that matter.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Agreed, Corbyn did a good job uniting the left behind him and exploiting the dementia tax to get to 40% but he needs to get to 42% to win
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Of course and indeed Bernie Sanders could stop Trump in 2020
However a Corbyn McDonnell government combined with leaving both the EU and the single market would be devastating for the UK
I'd almost forgotten about David Willets. Is he finally being listened to?
The tories spent a decade seduced by @HYUFD 's logic of *the young will vote tory to protect their inheritances* which seems to make sense in their bubble of millionaire pensioners.
Lets see if the tories can come up with something better than just youth rebranding at the conference. I'm not holding out much hope. The money for the required generational rebalancing to kill off Corbynism will have to come almost entirely from their client vote - one way or another - and it won't be cheap.
Double down on the dementia tax, Theresa.
Go on. Be bold. Take a leaf out of Thatcher, Blair and Cameron's book.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
I'd almost forgotten aboubetter than just youth rebranding at the conference. Not holding out much hope. The money for the generational rebalancing will have to come from their client vote - and it won't be cheap.
Double down on the dementia tax, Theresa.
Go on....
Even Ed Miliband won the youth vote despite the fact the Tories won an overall majority in the same general election. The Tories slashed Brown's lead in 2007 because of their inheritance tax cut promise forcing him to postpone the election, they won a majority in 2015 partly as a result of their promise to implement it and they lost their majority in 2017 as a result of the dementia tax which would have reversed most of the benefits of the IHT cut if the estate owner got dementia.
So no, no dementia tax. Keep the IHT cut and yes build some more homes but just make sure they are not all in the greenbelt
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Notice the new chief inspector of hospitals is saying the NHS is not fit for the 21st Century and is blaming labour when in power for the state it is in today. see daily telegraph
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Notice the new chief inspector of hospitals is saying the NHS is not fit for the 21st Century and is blaming labour when in power for the state it is in today. see daily telegraph
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
That is not true though. Certainly direct recruitment of Tory voters is one route to power, but there are others. Gains from the SNP are on the cards, other parties can be squeezed too. Tory voters may not turn out, demographic change could push marginals to Labour, Labour could further improve turnout by previous non voters. UKiP could revive and recover Tory voters, as could the LDs.
It is very possible. The Tory voteshare is at at a several decades high. It may sink back to baseline.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Notice the new chief inspector of hospitals is saying the NHS is not fit for the 21st Century and is blaming labour when in power for the state it is in today. see daily telegraph
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
That is not true though. Certainly direct recruitment of Tory voters is one route to power, but there are others. Gains from the SNP are on the cards, other parties can be squeezed too. Tory voters may not turn out, demographic change could push marginals to Labour, Labour could further improve turnout by previous non voters. UKiP could revive and recover Tory voters, as could the LDs.
It is very possible. The Tory voteshare is at at a several decades high. It may sink back to baseline.
Lots of if, buts and maybe there and a good amount of wishful thinking. Gains from the SNP do not matter on the maths as they always vote against the conservatives
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
It's not often I completely disagree with @Richard_Nabavi but I'm bewildered by the view the Brexit car crash is militant Remain voters fault. I'm half guilty of what he accuses us of. I didn't vote Labour in June as Corbyn is morally repugnant and a Hard Brexiter. Though I now see that I should have. What I did do was stick my modest donations into More United who funnelled them to candidates not parties. That means for the first time ever I helped fund Labour campaigns ( and as Anna Soubry was a More United candidate the first time I helped fund a Tory one as well ! ).
I did the once in a life time thing due to the utterly, totally, completely unique nature of May's campaign. A rhetorical acid attack on half the country's sense of Britishness requesting an unprecedented blank cheque for Brexit powers that could deliver a socioeconomic recasting beyond anything in my life time.
What Richard is arguing is I'd be getting more of what I wanted had that campaign been validated with a majority of 150 rather than that campaign being humiliated and a balanced parliament being able to properly check Brexit legislation.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
My concern would be that for whatever reason Corbyn stands down and his successor moderates some of the extreme policies to present a sensible left of centre platform that would be a much bigger problem for the conservatives.
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
The conference will be interesting and lets see the policy announcements that are made.
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Notice the new chief inspector of hospitals is saying the NHS is not fit for the 21st Century and is blaming labour when in power for the state it is in today. see daily telegraph
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
That is not true though. Certainly direct recruitment of Tory voters is one route to power, but there are others. Gains from the SNP are on the cards, other parties can be squeezed too. Tory voters may not turn out, demographic change could push marginals to Labour, Labour could further improve turnout by previous non voters. UKiP could revive and recover Tory voters, as could the LDs.
It is very possible. The Tory voteshare is at at a several decades high. It may sink back to baseline.
As BigG says Labour gains from the SNP are irrelevant in terms of beating the Tories and the LDs and Greens have already been squeezed almost to nothing. Tory voters will turn out even more than last time as Corbyn could get in, the LDs could equally take Labour voters as UKIP revive and take Tory ones
We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Being completely unsuitable as leader didn't stop Trump.
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
Notice the new chief inspector of hospitals is saying the NHS is not fit for the 21st Century and is blaming labour when in power for the state it is in today. see daily telegraph
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
That is not true though. Certainly direct recruitment of Tory voters is one route to power, but there are others. Gains from the SNP are on the cards, other parties can be squeezed too. Tory voters may not turn out, demographic change could push marginals to Labour, Labour could further improve turnout by previous non voters. UKiP could revive and recover Tory voters, as could the LDs.
It is very possible. The Tory voteshare is at at a several decades high. It may sink back to baseline.
Lots of if, buts and maybe there and a good amount of wishful thinking. Gains from the SNP do not matter on the maths as they always vote against the conservatives
Nope, just many different ways of being ahead of the Tories, not just direct conversions.
We will see what happens, but your logic "no one will vote for Corbyn because of..." was proven incorrect just 4 months ago.
< As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
The conference will be interesting and lets see the policy announcements that are made.
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
They are and they are mad. They want Ancelotti, who at least is available. Or Simeone who has taken Atletico from Div.2 into a new stadium and one of Europe's biggest clubs. Why would either of them take on Everton???? We'll probably end up with Harry Redknapp! Be careful what you wish for....some of this may apply to more excitable Tories!
< As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
The conference will be interesting and lets see the policy announcements that are made.
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
They are and they are mad. They want Ancelotti, who at least is available. Or Simeone who has taken Atletico from Div.2 into a new stadium and one of Europe's biggest clubs. Why would either of them take on Everton???? We'll probably end up with Harry Redknapp! Be careful what you wish for....some of this may apply to more excitable Tories!
Suck it up! Corbyn didn't support Blair, the Iraq invasion or many other policies, Blairitte or Red Tory. That CCHQ is so incompetent is not Corbyn's problem, it's yours!
Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple
Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him
I would have thought Myanmar has rather more pressing concerns at the moment than Boris reciting Kipling
Yes, but if you're the Burmese government, you'd be delighted to distract the world with a bit of faux outrage against the old colonial power.
Or genuine outrage.
The Shwedegon Pagoda is the holiest site in Yangon, and the bell there that Inspired Boris is a national symbol. The bell was looted by British troops in the first Anglo Burmese war and is now seen as a symbol of how the country was abused in colonial times.
Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple
Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him
I would have thought Myanmar has rather more pressing concerns at the moment than Boris reciting Kipling
Yes, but if you're the Burmese government, you'd be delighted to distract the world with a bit of faux outrage against the old colonial power.
I'm getting the sense you're not a fan of Boris?
Also, just out of interest, what does Wakefield's famous execution consultant think of TM?
Is he still in the party?
I quite like Boris in the same way that I quite like a slightly badly trained but essentially lovable and enthusiastic sheepdog. I wouldn't make it prime minister though.
I don't relate what others think about anything without their say so, I'm afraid (unless it's something that's been said in public). I don't think it fair to them. But yes, he is still in the party. Why shouldn't he be?
Here's what is going to happen: the tories are going to sit in the middle of the railway tracks dickering about hard brexits and the leadership and by the new year they will have been wiped out by a sodding great express train thundering down on them marked UNIVERSAL CREDIT COCKUP. That and an nhs crisis will give us a second winter of discontent and put them out of power for a generation.
Only kidding, of course, because what could possibly go wrong with a grandiose scheme dreamed up as make-work to keep the Quiet Man quiet?
No Universal Credit is vital to ensure people can actually do some work even for a few hours a week without losing all their benefits.Corbyn Labour of course has few qualms about keeping people permanently on welfare which is why they oppose it. The scheme may need adjustment, that does not mean it is wrong
The principle is irreproachable. It is cockups in implementing it which will be the tories' downfall - families running out of rent and heating and food money during its introduction. And it's not me saying this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41433019.
There are a few cock ups in implementing it but those affected will almost all be Labour voters anyway.
That does not excuse the failures but it is only by getting them into the workplace that they may consider moving to the Tories
You do not fill me with confidence that you know what you are talking about.
It is a stated fact that the unemployed and those dependant on benefits vote overwhelmingly Labour those who earn a wage rather less so
Most of those on benefits vote Tory actually. You do know OAPs are on benefits dont you.
Lab beats Tories from those in work
No pensions are not benefits they are contributed to in your working life when you pay National Insurance or into your workplace or private pension.
Labour did indeed narrowly beat the Tories amongst workers but nowhere near as much as they beat the Tories by amongst the unemployed dependent on benefits
That is also true of other benefits - entitlement to JSA - as an example - for 6 months.
Here's what is going to happen: the tories are going to sit in the middle of the railway tracks dickering about hard brexits and the leadership and by the new year they will have been wiped out by a sodding great express train thundering down on them marked UNIVERSAL CREDIT COCKUP. That and an nhs crisis will give us a second winter of discontent and put them out of power for a generation.
Only kidding, of course, because what could possibly go wrong with a grandiose scheme dreamed up as make-work to keep the Quiet Man quiet?
No Universal Credit is vital to ensure people can actually do some work even for a few hours a week without losing all their benefits.Corbyn Labour of course has few qualms about keeping people permanently on welfare which is why they oppose it. The scheme may need adjustment, that does not mean it is wrong
The principle is irreproachable. It is cockups in implementing it which will be the tories' downfall - families running out of rent and heating and food money during its introduction. And it's not me saying this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41433019.
There are a few cock ups in implementing it but those affected will almost all be Labour voters anyway.
That does not excuse the failures but it is only by getting them into the workplace that they may consider moving to the Tories
You do not fill me with confidence that you know what you are talking about.
It is a stated fact that the unemployed and those dependant on benefits vote overwhelmingly Labour those who earn a wage rather less so
Most of those on benefits vote Tory actually. You do know OAPs are on benefits dont you.
Lab beats Tories from those in work
No pensions are not benefits they are contributed to in your working life when you pay National Insurance or into your workplace or private pension.
Labour did indeed narrowly beat the Tories amongst workers but nowhere near as much as they beat the Tories by amongst the unemployed dependent on benefits
That is also true of other benefits - entitlement to JSA - as an example - for 6 months.
Yes but beyond those 6 months JSA is entirely non contributory and means tested
There is a problem here though. The argument for the status quo needs to explain why there have been falling real wages for 10 years. Is that because of too much or too little liberal capitalism? And did the GFC happen because of too much regulation or not enough?
The Conservatives have not really begun to even ask these questions, let alone answer them. They have not had a full leadership election for 12 years where such problems could be hammered out.
The last one indeed was won by, we are going to be quiet about Europe and be nice to gays, ethnic minorities and single mothers, and if you don't agree please shut up, 'cos we are sick of losing. (Simplified, but you get my drift. It was a very different time).
That is why, if May goes, a coronation or stitch-up won't be good enough.
You can't win a battle of ideas if you do't know or aren't sure what your ideas are.
Agree. You need to have something to say. The Tories don't know what to say. Casting around for a leader in those circumstances is pointles.
They need to start thinking......hard.
It's the mirror image of Labour moderates who also had nothing to say and lost to someone who did.
The GFC happened because we turned finance into a God to be worshipped, had the wrong type of regulation and were ineffective at it to boot. I wrote a whole thread header on it earlier this year.
Yes, Labour had that debate (twice). It is good you have thought about GFC, (I remember your header), but you aren't in the Cabinet! The Tories have spent so long blaming Labour for it, they haven't given any thought about the longer-term issues involved.
ps Hope you enjoyed BC. My old stomping ground!
I bloody well ought to be in the Cabinet! I'd wipe the floor with that bunch of overrated posers, tossers and incompetents.
I love BC - have enjoyed every moment and am already planning the next trip back.
Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple
Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him
I would have thought Myanmar has rather more pressing concerns at the moment than Boris reciting Kipling
Yes, but if you're the Burmese government, you'd be delighted to distract the world with a bit of faux outrage against the old colonial power.
Or genuine outrage.
The Shwedegon Pagoda is the holiest site in Yangon, and the bell there that Inspired Boris is a national symbol. The bell was looted by British troops in the first Anglo Burmese war and is now seen as a symbol of how the country was abused in colonial times.
It is a magnificent pagoda, and well worth a respectful visit.
Perhaps a similar gaffe would be to sing Rule Britania in front of Americans in Arlington National Cemetary.
If there was genuine outrage, their government would have said something. It's C4 and the Guardian who've raised this. That might be mainly down to the ambassador's timely intervention but it hasn't provoked a storm yet.
I would quite like to go to Myanmar: I really enjoyed Thailand a few years ago.
Comments
If the numbers are dropping as per the header, then not only are members leaving, they are the younger members.
The same is true of councils and councillors.
What goes around comes around...
There is a problem here though. The argument for the status quo needs to explain why there have been falling real wages for 10 years. Is that because of too much or too little liberal capitalism? And did the GFC happen because of too much regulation or not enough?
The Conservatives have not really begun to even ask these questions, let alone answer them. They have not had a full leadership election for 12 years where such problems could be hammered out.
The last one indeed was won by, we are going to be quiet about Europe and be nice to gays, ethnic minorities and single mothers, and if you don't agree please shut up, 'cos we are sick of losing. (Simplified, but you get my drift. It was a very different time).
That is why, if May goes, a coronation or stitch-up won't be good enough.
You can't win a battle of ideas if you do't know or aren't sure what your ideas are.
Agree. You need to have something to say. The Tories don't know what to say. Casting around for a leader in those circumstances is pointles.
They need to start thinking......hard.
It's the mirror image of Labour moderates who also had nothing to say and lost to someone who did.
The GFC happened because we turned finance into a God to be worshipped, had the wrong type of regulation and were ineffective at it to boot. I wrote a whole thread header on it earlier this year.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/86890/uk-inequality-fallen-since-credit-crunch
@Dixiedean said:
There is a problem here though. The argument for the status quo needs to explain why there have been falling real wages for 10 years. Is that because of too much or too little liberal capitalism? And did the GFC happen because of too much regulation or not enough?
The Conservatives have not really begun to even ask these questions, let alone answer them. They have not had a full leadership election for 12 years where such problems could be hammered out.
The last one indeed was won by, we are going to be quiet about Europe and be nice to gays, ethnic minorities and single mothers, and if you don't agree please shut up, 'cos we are sick of losing. (Simplified, but you get my drift. It was a very different time).
That is why, if May goes, a coronation or stitch-up won't be good enough.
You can't win a battle of ideas if you do't know or aren't sure what your ideas are.
@cyclefree said:
Agree. You need to have something to say. The Tories don't know what to say. Casting around for a leader in those circumstances is pointles.
They need to start thinking......hard.
It's the mirror image of Labour moderates who also had nothing to say and lost to someone who did.
The GFC happened because we turned finance into a God to be worshipped, had the wrong type of regulation and were ineffective at it to boot. I wrote a whole thread header on it earlier this year.
@Dixiedean said:
Yes, Labour had that debate (twice). It is good you have thought about GFC, (I remember your header), but you aren't in the Cabinet! The Tories have spent so long blaming Labour for it, they haven't given any thought about the longer-term issues involved.
ps Hope you enjoyed BC. My old stomping ground!
Of course, any tax rise is not without damage as well - Corporation tax in particular is not the freebie that those on the left think it is.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/913832858892062720
Gosling and Ford are on Graham Norton on BBC 1 tonight
As such it is quite possible a disorderly Brexit could end up being laid at Rudd's doorstep.
Whether Boris would be a brilliant minister or PM is all very interesting and would be relevant if the Tories had a large poll lead or were facing a moderate Labour leader but they aren't, they are facing a hard left Labour leader who could do huge damage to the economy.
So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do
Boris only beat Livingstone because he was a charismatic fighter able to connect with people
By the time of the next election Boris will be yesterday's man . Il n'est pas un homme serieux.
We will see but at the moment he is the best the Tories have
He's not. He's just one of the more obvious options in the shop front. But the new season's range really needs revealing.
The current season's task is to beat Jeremy Corbyn and at the moment Boris is the best bet to do that
No, he really isn't. He's just about the worst. Boris is a useful campaigner. That's great in opposition and useful in government. However, I've seen no evidence that he's a competent minister, that he can manage a team (several teams really - cabinet, MPs, the Party, No 10 etc), or that he can deliver on what would likely be very ambitious promises. He has a flexible relationship with the truth and the joke would no doubt wear thin very quickly. it's one thing being a mayor, where a bit of flamboyant showmanship is useful; it's wholly different leading a government. Boris' attitude and instincts are completely wrong and I'd rather have a(nother) dull technocrat than an overgrown teenager.
Not to mention he can get quite shirty when under persistent questioning. His "Sod off" at the GLA meeting might go down well once or twice, but would wear thin PDQ if repeated on more important matters.
What we are seeing is the consequence of idiots thinking they could somehow get a 'soft' Brexit by denying Theresa May the mandate she asked for. The reality of course is the diametric opposite. What a shambles voters have created.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/913886367649861634
Perhaps supply side of housing needs to be addressed instead of hosing money up the wall via subsidies for buyers.
'So beating Corbyn is all and on that front only Boris, not a dull technocrat, will do'
His timing is stupid and is likely to lose him support in the party. I am mixed on him but as you may have seen with my attitude to Theresa, loyalty is important right now, and Boris trying to put down a marker is unnecessary
He is making the point, a point backed by the clear majority of the party, that any transition period should last no longer than 2 years
What a terrible state to be in.
Please let May hang on in there.
It is him making the headlines and getting the media all over his leadership campaign that is just crass when the party needs total unity and a stage for Theresa May to role out some eye catching policies hopefully for the young, public sector pay, housing, and above all else the merging of the NHS and social care
You talk about whether Boris 'would' be a brilliant minister as if it's a hypothetical. It's not: he is a minister and is widely ridiculed and ignored. He seems to have no concept of collective responsibility (hardly surprising given that he seems to have little concept of responsibility, period). He struggles with the detail of his job. He waffles in interviews and during the election gave one quite as bad as Diane Abbott.
Boris polls well because he has high visibility and a track record in elections which is misunderstood by those who would apply it to a general election.
Against Corbyn, the Tories need to be the safe option. There is plenty of work to be done on that score as it is. With Boris at the helm, it would be impossible.
She can do all that but as Foreign Secretary he was making clear the position the party membership wants to hear on the transition period and Brexit
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/ryanair-lottery-buy-a-flight-for-999-hope-its-cancelled-get-eur400-compensation-2792567
Against Corbyn the safe option won't work I am afraid, they tried that last time, Corbyn is running as the candidate against the status quo, the Tories need a leader who is not simply of the status quo establishment
Why do you think there is a link between ability to pay £100 pa and picking up dog mess?
Even after the world's worst election campaign and manifesto, the Tories still won 43% and 50+ seats more than Labour.
Satire is truly dead.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Just because something is absurd, it doesn't mean that it cannot happen. PM Jezza is quite a likely possibility, particularly if the government collapses sooner than later. Indeed I quite look forward to Jezza reshaping Brexit Britain.
However a Corbyn McDonnell government combined with leaving both the EU and the single market would be devastating for the UK
I'd almost forgotten about David Willets. Is he finally being listened to?
The tories spent a decade seduced by @HYUFD 's logic of *the young will vote tory to protect their inheritances* which seems to make sense in their bubble of millionaire pensioners.
Lets see if the tories can come up with something better than just youth rebranding at the conference. I'm not holding out much hope. The money for the required generational rebalancing to kill off Corbynism will have to come almost entirely from their client vote - one way or another - and it won't be cheap.
Double down on the dementia tax, Theresa.
Go on. Be bold. Take a leaf out of Thatcher, Blair and Cameron's book.
Make enemies.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
So no, no dementia tax. Keep the IHT cut and yes build some more homes but just make sure they are not all in the greenbelt
As far as Corbyn is concerned of course it could happen but he has to attract conservative voters which so far there is no evidence he has done. Indeed his policy platform is a contradiction of their beliefs
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
It is very possible. The Tory voteshare is at at a several decades high. It may sink back to baseline.
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
I did the once in a life time thing due to the utterly, totally, completely unique nature of May's campaign. A rhetorical acid attack on half the country's sense of Britishness requesting an unprecedented blank cheque for Brexit powers that could deliver a socioeconomic recasting beyond anything in my life time.
What Richard is arguing is I'd be getting more of what I wanted had that campaign been validated with a majority of 150 rather than that campaign being humiliated and a balanced parliament being able to properly check Brexit legislation.
Forgive me but I don't buy it.
Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple
Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
We will see what happens, but your logic "no one will vote for Corbyn because of..." was proven incorrect just 4 months ago.
As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
There does seem to be an air of over confidence that UKPLC will soon have comrade Corbyn as PM from some labour posters on here.
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
The conference will be interesting and lets see the policy announcements that are made.
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
They are and they are mad. They want Ancelotti, who at least is available. Or Simeone who has taken Atletico from Div.2 into a new stadium and one of Europe's biggest clubs. Why would either of them take on Everton???? We'll probably end up with Harry Redknapp! Be careful what you wish for....some of this may apply to more excitable Tories!
Also, just out of interest, what does Wakefield's famous execution consultant think of TM?
Is he still in the party?
Corbyn still has the problem that while his policies may have superficial popularity the fact that he is totally unsuited to be Prime Minister has yet to be tested and at present I do not see evidence that he can covert conservative voters to his cause, and without any of them he is not in no 10
Not sure that is entirely true. There is, however, a steely determination and impetus (dare one say momentum?) amongst activists to put him in No.10. There does not seem the same positive motivation on the other side.
However, there is a long way to go. I am one of the few anti-Tory voices on here who agree with you that May remains the best leader. Need to play the long game to 2022, and hope the economy sorts itself out and Corbyn gets too old/ fed up.
There is better mood music coming out of the EU and if by Christmas she has achieved agreement of the EU citizens, the divorce bill, and Northern Ireland the whole narrative will change as we move on to trade talks
Maybe I am being over optimistic but it is not entirely out of the question that her best PM ratings over Corbyn 37/29 improve
Tory panic right now reminds me of football fans after a slow start. "Sack the Manager". OK, who comes next? Did sacking Moyes and replacing with van Gaal help you lot?
Course it could go tits up. Or it could go more like you say above. But she needs a chance.
And she needs someone to outline a positive alternative programme which would be better, rather than just same old in different clothes.
I am not Theresa is not really an argument.
The conference will be interesting and lets see the policy announcements that are made.
On managers are Everton fans seeking Koeman' s sacking yet. Not a very good start this year
They are and they are mad. They want Ancelotti, who at least is available. Or Simeone who has taken Atletico from Div.2 into a new stadium and one of Europe's biggest clubs. Why would either of them take on Everton???? We'll probably end up with Harry Redknapp! Be careful what you wish for....some of this may apply to more excitable Tories!
Suck it up! Corbyn didn't support Blair, the Iraq invasion or many other policies, Blairitte or Red Tory. That CCHQ is so incompetent is not Corbyn's problem, it's yours!
The Shwedegon Pagoda is the holiest site in Yangon, and the bell there that Inspired Boris is a national symbol. The bell was looted by British troops in the first Anglo Burmese war and is now seen as a symbol of how the country was abused in colonial times.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singu_Min_Bell
It is a magnificent pagoda, and well worth a respectful visit.
Perhaps a similar gaffe would be to sing Rule Britania in front of Americans in Arlington National Cemetary.
I don't relate what others think about anything without their say so, I'm afraid (unless it's something that's been said in public). I don't think it fair to them. But yes, he is still in the party. Why shouldn't he be?
Yes, Labour had that debate (twice). It is good you have thought about GFC, (I remember your header), but you aren't in the Cabinet! The Tories have spent so long blaming Labour for it, they haven't given any thought about the longer-term issues involved.
ps Hope you enjoyed BC. My old stomping ground!
I bloody well ought to be in the Cabinet! I'd wipe the floor with that bunch of overrated posers, tossers and incompetents.
I love BC - have enjoyed every moment and am already planning the next trip back.
Where were you based in BC?
I would quite like to go to Myanmar: I really enjoyed Thailand a few years ago.