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SystemSystem Posts: 12,682
edited September 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was to be a new Brexit referendum then LAB voters would be overwhelmingly for REMAIN

Lots of talk at the LAB conference today of a second Brexit referendum. This comes amidst new GQRR polling that suggests more support for the idea including 70% of LAB voters.

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Comments

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited September 2017
    First!

    FPT
    Cyclefree said:




    I thought Corbyn wanted to leave the Single Market and EU rules precisely because it will allow him to carry out his economic policies which EU rules would prevent.

    How is this consistent with your claim that voting Labour would ensure the "softest possible Brexit"?

    Or are Labour moderates being deluded in thinking this?

    Corbyn was, of course, a 1970s anti-marketeer (as we called them in those days). But he has moved away from that position for tactical reasons and because he knows that the party membership, and his own supporters, are overwhelmingly opposed to a hard Brexit. The internal party campaign for free movement is run entirely by momentum supporters.

    The combination of internal party pressure and the realities of trying to deliver Brexit will push him further over the next few months. Labour's positioning on the Brexit issue has been unexpectedly deft recently - it has effectively signed up to the EEA option, which is the only practicable alternative to the cliff edge. This is said, of course, to be "transitional" but once we are there I think the chances of "transitioning" any further are slim, if only because the EU27 would have no incentive to offer the UK acceptable exit deal.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/912696665919885312
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Stunning surprise. Corbyn all things to all men on this?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The question is a bit ambiguous - are voters being asked whether they'd vote to leave the EU as if nothing had happened so far, or are they being asked whether they want to stop the Brexit process already underway (and if so, on what terms)?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Honestly, I don't know what I'd do in such a referendum. I don't think I could inflict Britain in its current enervated state on the rest of the EU. But I can't line up with the xenophobic Leavers.

    I'd be changing my mind hourly.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    edited September 2017
    Looks like stalemate once again, with another small swing to Remain.

    Not sure what sort of 'reforms', Macron has in mind for the EU, but a rapid reaction force is more than a gendarmarie.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/26/emmanuel-macron-says-britain-will-have-place-inreformed-simplified/

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Honestly, I don't know what I'd do in such a referendum. I don't think I could inflict Britain in its current enervated state on the rest of the EU. But I can't line up with the xenophobic Leavers.

    I'd be changing my mind hourly.

    It's not like the EU lacks other troublemakers and are in some u topic scenario without us, but I doubt they'd want us to remain. Honestly if we do very poorly I'm not convinced I'd not change my tune if we had another vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The question is a bit ambiguous - are voters being asked whether they'd vote to leave the EU as if nothing had happened so far, or are they being asked whether they want to stop the Brexit process already underway (and if so, on what terms)?

    Important indeed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    It seems to me that the only things in the EU Corbyn and McDonnell care about are workers' rights and more or less free immigration. But we don't have to be in the EU to have those.

    So the Labour party's current policy, apoarently, of staying in the Single Market for a bit is purely tactical, to ensure that they keep voters appalled by Tory shenanigans on Brexit on board so thatbthey win the next election.

    Once in power I expect them to ditch the EU so that they can carry out the economic policies they are really interested in and which EU rules would prevent. So a vote for Labour under Corbyn/McDonnell is a vote for a Hard Brexit. And one which will be particularly damaging if combined with the sorts of policies McDonnell has been talking about.

    Of course, the Tories are unable to criticise this effectively because they too seem to be heading for Hard Brexit unless the grown ups (are there any?) change direction into something more realistic.

    Hard times ahead for all, I fear......

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Honestly, I don't know what I'd do in such a referendum. I don't think I could inflict Britain in its current enervated state on the rest of the EU. But I can't line up with the xenophobic Leavers.

    I'd be changing my mind hourly.

    Let them eat Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    How many of the 67% of Conservative supporters still backing Leave are doing so out of loyalty to the government and a belief we need to unite to get a good deal?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Honestly, I don't know what I'd do in such a referendum. I don't think I could inflict Britain in its current enervated state on the rest of the EU. But I can't line up with the xenophobic Leavers.

    I'd be changing my mind hourly.

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    Looks like stalemate once again, with another small swing to Remain.

    Not sure what sort of 'reforms', Macron has in mind for the EU, but a rapid reaction force is more than a gendarmarie.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/26/emmanuel-macron-says-britain-will-have-place-inreformed-simplified/

    So, reformed deeper more integrated EU/multi speed/a la carte/cherry picking/cake and eat it depending on what you want to call it or Independent/Guardian/Times/Mail/Express if you like.

    This is the sort of thing however, embryonic and bare boned it is, that should've been done yonks ago and might've saved a load of grief. Let's see what becomes of it over the years if it gets anywhere at all, as Merkel has her own issues now trying to cobble together something strong and stable from CDU/CSU/FDP/Greens (quite an ask) and the Easterners will squeal loudly at any thought of two speeds even if they still want the power to not have Mutti's migrants reallocated to them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKqRZamW0AE7Nkf.jpg:large

    TM resorts to desperate measures in BREXIT negotiations!!!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Cyclefree said:

    It seems to me that the only things in the EU Corbyn and McDonnell care about are workers' rights and more or less free immigration. But we don't have to be in the EU to have those.

    So the Labour party's current policy, apoarently, of staying in the Single Market for a bit is purely tactical, to ensure that they keep voters appalled by Tory shenanigans on Brexit on board so thatbthey win the next election.

    Once in power I expect them to ditch the EU so that they can carry out the economic policies they are really interested in and which EU rules would prevent. So a vote for Labour under Corbyn/McDonnell is a vote for a Hard Brexit. And one which will be particularly damaging if combined with the sorts of policies McDonnell has been talking about.

    Of course, the Tories are unable to criticise this effectively because they too seem to be heading for Hard Brexit unless the grown ups (are there any?) change direction into something more realistic.

    Hard times ahead for all, I fear......

    I completely disagree with this. At least 95% of the party membership and perhaps 90% of Labour MPs favoured remain. And by the time Corbyn comes to power - if he does - Brexit will have tested the Tories to destruction. The idea that he could turn round and "ditch the EU" in those circumstances is absurd. It's much more likely that he will discover that it does not represent an obstacle to his programme after all.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    anothernick said:

    First!

    FPT

    Cyclefree said:




    I thought Corbyn wanted to leave the Single Market and EU rules precisely because it will allow him to carry out his economic policies which EU rules would prevent.

    How is this consistent with your claim that voting Labour would ensure the "softest possible Brexit"?

    Or are Labour moderates being deluded in thinking this?

    Corbyn was, of course, a 1970s anti-marketeer (as we called them in those days). But he has moved away from that position for tactical reasons and because he knows that the party membership, and his own supporters, are overwhelmingly opposed to a hard Brexit. The internal party campaign for free movement is run entirely by momentum supporters.

    The combination of internal party pressure and the realities of trying to deliver Brexit will push him further over the next few months. Labour's positioning on the Brexit issue has been unexpectedly deft recently - it has effectively signed up to the EEA option, which is the only practicable alternative to the cliff edge. This is said, of course, to be "transitional" but once we are there I think the chances of "transitioning" any further are slim, if only because the EU27 would have no incentive to offer the UK acceptable exit deal.
    Corbyn does not care about an acceptable free trade deal. He will transition out of the EEA in short order so that he can carry out the policies McDonnell has outlined, which are not possible while subject to EU rules.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Nothing has changed. What we need to focus on is getting the best possible Brexit. That means accepting we do not hold the whip hand in negotiations. If we were to leave Tory head-bangers to howl at the moon and do that, a payment deal can be done relatively easily and there is a compromise to be had on developing a judicial body to ensure that whatever agreement is finally concluded is properly enforced - this could include citizens' rights. The intractable issue is the Irish border. I just cannot see how that one is solved unless we stay in the Customs Union or we develop a new UK/EU union that is based upon it.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017
    Do we have tables?

    How do the non-voters break down?

    If this trend(?) towards higher turnout continues, what previous non-voters think matters.

    We have to consider the possibility that a brexit rerun could match indyref turnout levels, with the *new* voters deciding the outcome.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Has Boris really said this?

    https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/912687186222419968
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    If we are ever to go back that woukd be requisite.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    It already is.

    If your question is should it be at the top table of European Union nations then the question should be:

    "Should Britain remain in the EU, adopt the Euro and join the Schengen visa-free travel area"....

    ..we'll leave the EU army/navy/airforce for later.....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    anothernick said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It seems to me that the only things in the EU Corbyn and McDonnell care about are workers' rights and more or less free immigration. But we don't have to be in the EU to have those.

    So the Labour party's current policy, apoarently, of staying in the Single Market for a bit is purely tactical, to ensure that they keep voters appalled by Tory shenanigans on Brexit on board so thatbthey win the next election.

    Once in power I expect them to ditch the EU so that they can carry out the economic policies they are really interested in and which EU rules would prevent. So a vote for Labour under Corbyn/McDonnell is a vote for a Hard Brexit. And one which will be particularly damaging if combined with the sorts of policies McDonnell has been talking about.

    Of course, the Tories are unable to criticise this effectively because they too seem to be heading for Hard Brexit unless the grown ups (are there any?) change direction into something more realistic.

    Hard times ahead for all, I fear......

    I completely disagree with this. At least 95% of the party membership and perhaps 90% of Labour MPs favoured remain. And by the time Corbyn comes to power - if he does - Brexit will have tested the Tories to destruction. The idea that he could turn round and "ditch the EU" in those circumstances is absurd. It's much more likely that he will discover that it does not represent an obstacle to his programme after all.
    Free movement of capital is likely to be a big difficulty for the sorts of policies outlined yesterday, as are EU rules on state aid.

    I think Labour moderates who think as you have outlined above are being naive. They are confusing Corbyn's tactics with his strategy. They are believing what they want to be true.

    Everything Corbyn has said and done shows that he is not in favour of the EU. The only bits he likes can be done outside the EU. What he and McDonnell want to do economically to the UK is best done without the pesky EU interfering. He will take victory at an election as carte blanche to do what he wants to do, just as he has taken victory in the Labour leadership elections to carry on in his own sweet way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    CarlottaVance said:

    It already is.

    No, it's currently a nation where Donald Tusk can stand in front of Number 10 and admonish us for making insufficient progress.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    It already is.

    No, it's currently a nation where Donald Tusk can stand in front of Number 10 and admonish us for making insufficient progress.
    Try harder
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/912707132528775168
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    It already is.

    No, it's currently a nation where Donald Tusk can stand in front of Number 10 and admonish us for making insufficient progress.
    Try harder
    I look forward to the day we finally leave the EU if only so I can start reading posts from williamglenn about how we will "rejoin any day now".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    That's a blast from the past, along with " not missing the bus," and "supping with the Germans, rather than the Greeks."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/912707132528775168

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    Cyclefree said:

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.

    I seriously doubt that the EU is suddenly going to reform to become something Leavers would be happy with. If anything I expect the opposite to happen and the EU to take the path that Juncker has laid out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/912707132528775168

    Good luck with that, Mr. Macron.

    It will prove much easier for Germany and France to leave the EU and join the UK's new European Economic Commonwealth.

    Or the EEC, for short.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,065
    Isn't the 2% swing from the referendum till today easily explained by the death of old leavers and their replacement by young Remainers. Indeed by 2019 at this rate the Remain majority should be approaching 6%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sorry, is this a surprise?

    Since the EU Ref, there has been churn. Pro-Brexit voters have moved to Con, and anti-Brexit to Labour.

    The headline figures have barely moved and, where they have, it's all MoE stuff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    Today's Survation has almost identical figures (albeit with Leave just ahead). Among people who say they voted in 2016, opinion also remains unchanged at 52/48.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sorry, is this a surprise?

    Since the EU Ref, there has been churn. Pro-Brexit voters have moved to Con, and anti-Brexit to Labour.

    The headline figures have barely moved and, where they have, it's all MoE stuff.

    Yup.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017
    Roger said:

    Isn't the 2% swing from the referendum till today easily explained by the death of old leavers and their replacement by young Remainers. Indeed by 2019 at this rate the Remain majority should be approaching 6%.

    I'd like to buy into your theory Roger, but these polls are obviously MOE.

    That doesn't mean the leave vote isn't dying - it quite possibly is.

    Yougov's polling panel are probably able to measure the effect better than random sample polls, imo.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    Pong said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the 2% swing from the referendum till today easily explained by the death of old leavers and their replacement by young Remainers. Indeed by 2019 at this rate the Remain majority should be approaching 6%.

    I'd like to buy into your theory Roger, but it's MOE nonsense right now.
    It shows that nobody who voted Leave is buyng Tony Blair's twaddle that we should stay.

    For that at least, we should all be grateful.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    dr_spyn said:

    Looks like stalemate once again, with another small swing to Remain.

    Not sure what sort of 'reforms', Macron has in mind for the EU, but a rapid reaction force is more than a gendarmarie.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/26/emmanuel-macron-says-britain-will-have-place-inreformed-simplified/

    If the EU wants the UK, that's the only way it will.

    Not by swiping all the papers off the table, leaning across to the UK, grabbing it by the tie and collar, and giving it an almighty slap.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    edited September 2017
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    We never have been before. Why should that change now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    glw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.

    I seriously doubt that the EU is suddenly going to reform to become something Leavers would be happy with. If anything I expect the opposite to happen and the EU to take the path that Juncker has laid out.
    What would Leavers be happy with? There are lots of different varieties of them after all.

    A Single Market for all. An inner Eurozone core. An outer none Eurozone group. Rules affecting all states to be brought in only with majorities of both the inner and outer cores. Some sensible amendments on free movement. Far better control of the outer borders and strict rules properly enforced on immigration into the EU. No slicing away of UK common law or criminal law protections (ie reform of the EEA).

    Something like that might be acceptable to a majority. Not saying it's on offer..... but if it were?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2017
    Would be nice to see a split of those Labour voters by region. I expect there might be a huge differential between London vs Wales and the north and Midlands.

    I am still not clear about what the question is for the second referendum. Is it

    Accept the deal or leave without one?

    Accept the deal or change the deal with a lower UK payment and or no transition?

    Accept the deal or stay in the EU on the existing Terms?

    Accept the deal or stay in but with the terms for new members eg The Euro and Schengen and no rebate - which the EU might insist on?

    Stay in the single market and Customs union or leave both?

    Stay in the single market but leave the CU or leave both?

    Stay in the CU but leave the single market or leave neither?

    Leave or remain whatever the terms - we did that before?

    My head is starting to hurt...........

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Not whilst Corbyn and McDonnell are in charge of Labour.

    Whilst I fear Brexit will be a disaster for the UK, those two in charge of the UK will be even worse.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    edited September 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Something like that might be acceptable to a majority. Not saying it's on offer..... but if it were?

    Reverting to something akin to the status pre-Lisbon and pre-Maastricht would probably do it. I won't be holding my breath.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    glw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.

    I seriously doubt that the EU is suddenly going to reform to become something Leavers would be happy with. If anything I expect the opposite to happen and the EU to take the path that Juncker has laid out.

    The EU will do what its member states want. Macron has seen that in Germany the dynamic is towards slightly less Europe, not more. The same applies in Italy. The leaderships of the countries that Cameron negotiated with in 2015 are not the ones that are there now - or they are facing very different circumstances. Merkel no longer has a mandate from 41% of her electorate, for example.

  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    I see that Survation has a poll out for Labour list with a proper Scottish sample. L,o and behold it confirms Panelbase with the SNP gaining ground at the expense of both Tory and Labour.

    It shows Labour 31 seats short of an overall majority with the SNP on 41 including Salmond's seat in Gordon. An early election might well be in the SNP's interests!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    They include people like Richard Nabavi and John O who vote Conservative for other reasons.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    Cyclefree said:

    glw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.

    I seriously doubt that the EU is suddenly going to reform to become something Leavers would be happy with. If anything I expect the opposite to happen and the EU to take the path that Juncker has laid out.
    What would Leavers be happy with? There are lots of different varieties of them after all.

    A Single Market for all. An inner Eurozone core. An outer none Eurozone group. Rules affecting all states to be brought in only with majorities of both the inner and outer cores. Some sensible amendments on free movement. Far better control of the outer borders and strict rules properly enforced on immigration into the EU. No slicing away of UK common law or criminal law protections (ie reform of the EEA).

    Something like that might be acceptable to a majority. Not saying it's on offer..... but if it were?
    In my case, returning to the pre-Maastricht position. But, that will never happen.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    All margin of error on the actual result coupled with a bit f churn as hardcore Leave/Remain voters switch parties. I'm also a bit sceptical about second referendum polling as it's entire hypothetical. The best strategy at the moment is keep softening Brexit ( which May has just done ) and hope that time and attrition soften up enough populist leavers to a new deal. What abundantly clear now - or should be - is that there is neither a majority, momentum or political capital for the hard Brexit fantasies over represented on here. Which is of course why many Leavers will try and blow up the negotiations as it's the only way they'll get what they want. And the Borises of this world will pander. So to my fellow patriots and Europeans - organise, mobilise and resist. The final shape of things is not fully cast. Which is why extreme Brexiters spend all day screaming that it is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    We never have been before. Why should that change now?
    What were we doing at the Congress of Vienna then?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    SouthamObserver said:

    The EU will do what its member states want. Macron has seen that in Germany the dynamic is towards slightly less Europe, not more. The same applies in Italy. The leaderships of the countries that Cameron negotiated with in 2015 are not the ones that are there now - or they are facing very different circumstances. Merkel no longer has a mandate from 41% of her electorate, for example.

    We have heard this sort of stuff before, and it goes nowhere, because the EU answer to every problem and its guiding principle is more Europe. At best I expect some trivial concession rather than anything that would truly address the issues we have.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    This from Donald Tusk today will go down like a cup of cold sick on the Tory right. But let's hope he is right:

    “I feel cautiously optimistic about the constructive and more realistic tone of the prime minister’s speech in Florence and our discussion today ... This shows that the philosophy of having cake and eating it is finally coming to an end. At least I hope so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/26/donald-tusk-uk-cake-and-eat-it-approach-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
    Ought to be but so far has struggled.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    YellowSubmarine said:

    All margin of error on the actual result coupled with a bit f churn as hardcore Leave/Remain voters switch parties. I'm also a bit sceptical about second referendum polling as it's entire hypothetical. The best strategy at the moment is keep softening Brexit ( which May has just done ) and hope that time and attrition soften up enough populist leavers to a new deal. What abundantly clear now - or should be - is that there is neither a majority, momentum or political capital for the hard Brexit fantasies over represented on here. Which is of course why many Leavers will try and blow up the negotiations as it's the only way they'll get what they want. And the Borises of this world will pander. So to my fellow patriots and Europeans - organise, mobilise and resist. The final shape of things is not fully cast. Which is why extreme Brexiters spend all day screaming that it is.

    I accept Robert Smithson's view that Brexit is a process. I can live with settling for less than I would ideally want.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    We never have been before. Why should that change now?
    What were we doing at the Congress of Vienna then?
    And at Utrecht, Paris, Versailles ... answer in all cases: we got there by winning wars, not signing up to currencies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
    Ought to be but so far has struggled.
    The Lib Dems ought to have picked up Conservatives who switched because of Brexit, but Corbyn got most of them instead. That suggests they were looking for revenge on their former allies, more than anything else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The question is a bit ambiguous - are voters being asked whether they'd vote to leave the EU as if nothing had happened so far, or are they being asked whether they want to stop the Brexit process already underway (and if so, on what terms)?

    That is a good point because there are a lot of us who think the referendum result should be respected but nonetheless really, really don't want to leave. So in a second referendum I imagine that like me they would vote to remain. I don't think there is any problem with stopping the Brexit process and returning to the status quo though, if circumstances permit it.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    williamglenn said:

    How many of the 67% of Conservative supporters still backing Leave are doing so out of loyalty to the government and a belief we need to unite to get a good deal?

    Only a small minority, most likely.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Cyclefree said:

    It seems to me that the only things in the EU Corbyn and McDonnell care about are workers' rights and more or less free immigration. But we don't have to be in the EU to have those.

    So the Labour party's current policy, apoarently, of staying in the Single Market for a bit is purely tactical, to ensure that they keep voters appalled by Tory shenanigans on Brexit on board so thatbthey win the next election.

    Once in power I expect them to ditch the EU so that they can carry out the economic policies they are really interested in and which EU rules would prevent. So a vote for Labour under Corbyn/McDonnell is a vote for a Hard Brexit. And one which will be particularly damaging if combined with the sorts of policies McDonnell has been talking about.

    Of course, the Tories are unable to criticise this effectively because they too seem to be heading for Hard Brexit unless the grown ups (are there any?) change direction into something more realistic.

    Hard times ahead for all, I fear......

    Yes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Recidivist, that's the only legitimate way (perhaps barring a General Election) that the decision can be reversed.

    Those who just want us to remain without consulting the electorate are damned silly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
    Get some policies other than another Referendum. Then they might.

    As, indeed, might many Labour voters who hate Corbyn/McDonnell's vision of the New Venezuela...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    & Tory voters overwhemingly for leave.

    The graph above indicates that precisely nothing has changed, it does lack one detail though. How would non GE (But EU referendum) voters vote ?
    The EU ref had a larger pool than the GE, so the breakdown of those voters is vital to a theoretical second question.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
    Ought to be but so far has struggled.
    The Lib Dems ought to have picked up Conservatives who switched because of Brexit, but Corbyn got most of them instead. That suggests they were looking for revenge on their former allies, more than anything else.

    This is spot on. The Left was largely united in 2017 against May and the Tories. Will this be true come the next election? To some extent almost certainly yes. Enough to put Corbyn into No 10? Possibly more doubtful....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Speaking as one of the 28%, my position is as follows:

    1. We had a referendum, which I supported. Of course I respect the result, so I think we should now leave the EU.

    2. That doesn't mean that I have changed my view on the merits of leaving. It's still a big risk, and the benefits of leaving strike me as not worth the risk. The only thing which has perhaps changed is that the risk of leaving looks even bigger now, because Brexit+Corbyn together is a seriously nasty prospect by any measure.

    3. In any case, even if I did decide that we should try to stop Brexit, there is no party offering that in any coherent form. The LibDems seem to be proposing a bizarre second referendum where the choices would be accepting whatever deal is on offer, or crashing out with no deal at all. I applaud their pro-EU integrity in one sense (or at least I would if they had voted against holding the referendum), but the practicalities are bonkers.

    4. Well, I'm not going to vote Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne/Lansman under any circumstances whatsoever, am I, but in any case Labour aren't offering anything different to the Conservatives on this, so Brexit is totally irrelevant to anyone who might be tempted to switch from the Tories to Labour.

    As always, I try to deal with the world as it is. Yes, of course, if there were a scenario where I could vote for a Cameron/Osborne government, remaining in the EU with Dave's rather good if maligned deal, then I would do. That's not on offer, Brexit is going to happen, it's time to draw a line under the referendum and get on with crafting a post-Brexit Britain which is economically sensible and which reflects the values I would support.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    SouthamObserver said:

    This from Donald Tusk today will go down like a cup of cold sick on the Tory right. But let's hope he is right:

    “I feel cautiously optimistic about the constructive and more realistic tone of the prime minister’s speech in Florence and our discussion today ... This shows that the philosophy of having cake and eating it is finally coming to an end. At least I hope so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/26/donald-tusk-uk-cake-and-eat-it-approach-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Do these EU twats ever manage to say anything without getting a sly dig in?

    What a bunch of wankers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    MarqueeMark said:

    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.
    Do you actually know any Tories?
    The world does not divide starkly into black and white, Mr Mark, though that is how you seem to see it. There is also a large patch of glowing sun-like orange, which ought to be attractive to former Conservative voters who wish to remain in the EU.

    The fact that you cannot see it, does not mean that it does not exist.
    Get some policies other than another Referendum. Then they might.

    As, indeed, might many Labour voters who hate Corbyn/McDonnell's vision of the New Venezuela...
    You are still underestimating Jezza
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
    Given how aggressively Conservative Leavers deride anyone who supports Remain, one can observe with confidence that they don't have much of a handle on the Conservative Remainers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    It already is.

    No, it's currently a nation where Donald Tusk can stand in front of Number 10 and admonish us for making insufficient progress.
    Try harder
    I look forward to the day we finally leave the EU if only so I can start reading posts from williamglenn about how we will "rejoin any day now".
    He's not going to stop.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41393021

    Or... the people of the UK could plan for no run on the pound - by not voting for Corbyn/McDonnell controlling the levers of power.

    Am I alone in thinking this is really dumb politics?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,879
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
    Given how aggressively Conservative Leavers deride anyone who supports Remain, one can observe with confidence that they don't have much of a handle on the Conservative Remainers.
    Non sequiter. Very poor response.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Cyclefree said:

    glw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    We'd all be in a much better place if they'd thought about doing this several years ago before the referendum rather than after it.....

    Esprit d'escalier, alas.

    I seriously doubt that the EU is suddenly going to reform to become something Leavers would be happy with. If anything I expect the opposite to happen and the EU to take the path that Juncker has laid out.
    What would Leavers be happy with? There are lots of different varieties of them after all.

    A Single Market for all. An inner Eurozone core. An outer none Eurozone group. Rules affecting all states to be brought in only with majorities of both the inner and outer cores. Some sensible amendments on free movement. Far better control of the outer borders and strict rules properly enforced on immigration into the EU. No slicing away of UK common law or criminal law protections (ie reform of the EEA).

    Something like that might be acceptable to a majority. Not saying it's on offer..... but if it were?
    The answer to that, at least, the answer to get a 60%+ vote for Remain, is all of that, plus some demonstration that a mechanism was in place for powers to flow back from the EU to member states, rather than it being entirely one-way. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was a good one.

    You'd think there'd be sensible people within the EU who understood this and were thinking along similar lines.

    But, there don't appear to be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Speaking as one of the 28%, my position is as follows:

    1. We had a referendum, which I supported. Of course I respect the result, so I think we should now leave the EU.

    2. That doesn't mean that I have changed my view on the merits of leaving. It's still a big risk, and the benefits of leaving strike me as not worth the risk. The only thing which has perhaps changed is that the risk of leaving looks even bigger now, because Brexit+Corbyn together is a seriously nasty prospect by any measure.

    3. In any case, even if I did decide that we should try to stop Brexit, there is no party offering that in any coherent form. The LibDems seem to be proposing a bizarre second referendum where the choices would be accepting whatever deal is on offer, or crashing out with no deal at all. I applaud their pro-EU integrity in one sense (or at least I would if they had voted against holding the referendum), but the practicalities are bonkers.

    4. Well, I'm not going to vote Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne/Lansman under any circumstances whatsoever, am I, but in any case Labour aren't offering anything different to the Conservatives on this, so Brexit is totally irrelevant to anyone who might be tempted to switch from the Tories to Labour.

    As always, I try to deal with the world as it is. Yes, of course, if there were a scenario where I could vote for a Cameron/Osborne government, remaining in the EU with Dave's rather good if maligned deal, then I would do. That's not on offer, Brexit is going to happen, it's time to draw a line under the referendum and get on with crafting a post-Brexit Britain which is economically sensible and which reflects the values I would support.

    Some sensible words
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
    Given how aggressively Conservative Leavers deride anyone who supports Remain, one can observe with confidence that they don't have much of a handle on the Conservative Remainers.
    My father and his friends were Remain Conservatives, who might vote Lib Dem in secondary elections, but detest the politics of Jeremy Corbyn, and would vote Conservative at a general election to keep him out. I expect a lot of the 28% think similarly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited September 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41393021

    Or... the people of the UK could plan for no run on the pound - by not voting for Corbyn/McDonnell controlling the levers of power.

    Am I alone in thinking this is really dumb politics?

    It's surely better to plan for a possible run on the pound than go through the one we have just had without a plan. The Tories are on very sticky ground here given that everyone knows sterling has fallen substantially in value recently. Labour can just say they are being prudent. It looks like pretty smart politics to me given that voters are not going to delve too deeply into the issue. The party's leadership is certainly getting much better at that, just as its policies are moving even further to the left. Richard Nabavi's point 2 in his post below is very strong.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
    Given how aggressively Conservative Leavers deride anyone who supports Remain, one can observe with confidence that they don't have much of a handle on the Conservative Remainers.
    My father and his friends were Remain Conservatives, who might vote Lib Dem in secondary elections, but detest the politics of Jeremy Corbyn, and would vote Conservative at a general election to keep him out. I expect a lot of the 28% think similarly.
    All of which points to the Conservatives having a rather obvious key man risk.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    So the answer is you dont know any of those 28% who are "up for grabs". Thank you for clearing that up.
    Given how aggressively Conservative Leavers deride anyone who supports Remain, one can observe with confidence that they don't have much of a handle on the Conservative Remainers.
    Absolute bollocks.

    A Remain Conservative (who happens to me one of my best friends, and has just got engaged) was visiting my wife and me last weekend with his fiancé, and I was talking to another at WhatsApp at lunch who works for JP Morgan.

    In this case, it's your own ignorance, prejudice and confirmation bias on display.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    AlastairMeeks said:

    All of which points to the Conservatives having a rather obvious key man risk.

    Possibly. However, a lot of the Labour support seems to be personal to Corbyn; who knows to what extent that would transfer over to a successor?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I feel much like you. But I think Britain needs - if it were to vote Remain (and the EU is far less worrying to me, even with all its faults, than Corbyn/McDonnell and co) - to take a proper, strategic, sensible and involved role in the EU in a way it has never done in the past.

    We need to join the Euro. It is the only way to get back to the top table.
    They should opinion poll that........
    "Should Britain be at the top table of European nations?"
    We never have been before. Why should that change now?
    What were we doing at the Congress of Vienna then?
    And at Utrecht, Paris, Versailles ... answer in all cases: we got there by winning wars, not signing up to currencies.
    If you think of it in those terms, the way to win the 'war' in this context is to convince your electorate to move faster on integration so that you can use your first-mover advantage to define the terms that later apply to all. That's what Macron is currently trying to do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/912721303492325376
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/912721303492325376

    They don't understand why the US isn't playing the game anymore?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    @Casino_Royale - You've said in the past that you have been surprised to discover since the referendum that there are people who passionately support the EU, having previously believed that the British were all secretly uncomfortable with it even if they went along with it for pragmatic reasons.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
    In the last month I've been in Middlesbrough, Cambridge, Birmingham, Thirsk, Swindon and Bromsgrove (and yes, Hungary twice). Do not make assumptions about me. And do not, when shown to be completely wrong, simply repeat the same false assumptions about me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
    In the last month I've been in Middlesbrough, Cambridge, Birmingham, Thirsk, Swindon and Bromsgrove (and yes, Hungary twice). Do not make assumptions about me. And do not, when shown to be completely wrong, simply repeat the same false assumptions about me.
    You 'visiting' different parts of the UK doesn't imply you've spoken to anyone there or learnt anything by it.

    If you had, you would not have made the statement you did.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
    In the last month I've been in Middlesbrough, Cambridge, Birmingham, Thirsk, Swindon and Bromsgrove (and yes, Hungary twice). Do not make assumptions about me. And do not, when shown to be completely wrong, simply repeat the same false assumptions about me.
    You 'visiting' different parts of the UK doesn't imply you've spoken to anyone there or learnt anything by it.

    If you had, you would not have made the statement you did.
    I haven't seen a good example of the "No True Scotsman" fallacy for some time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    williamglenn said:

    @Casino_Royale - You've said in the past that you have been surprised to discover since the referendum that there are people who passionately support the EU, having previously believed that the British were all secretly uncomfortable with it even if they went along with it for pragmatic reasons.

    That's not quite right. I said I've been surprise at how divisive and strong the reaction against it has been. I didn't expect it to get this bitter. But that includes a lot of people who don't hold much love for the EU but are pissed off over its short-term negative economic consequences.

    No doubt there are those that passionately support the EU, but I'd put this at between 15-20% of the population, not 48%.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/912721303492325376

    They don't understand why the US isn't playing the game anymore?
    They clearly never planned for a US President who would take their repeated threats at face value.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    edited September 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
    In the last month I've been in Middlesbrough, Cambridge, Birmingham, Thirsk, Swindon and Bromsgrove (and yes, Hungary twice). Do not make assumptions about me. And do not, when shown to be completely wrong, simply repeat the same false assumptions about me.
    Didn't you earlier mention you only know ex-Tories (presumably remainers). Given the polling, that's hardly a representative cross-section of society ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The 28% of Conservative supporters who support Remain must be at least as up for grabs as any Labour supporters. It's very hard to see what they're getting out of their historical loyalty at present, given the headlong rush to car crash Brexit.

    Their disappointment at leaving the EU doesn't mean these Tories suddenly become relaxed about Corbyn trashing the UK economy.

    Do you actually know any Tories?
    All the Tories I knew are now ex-Tories, having concluded that they don't want to stay on a bus being driven off a cliff. Meanwhile, those staying on board are raucously singing Summer Holiday.
    In other words, you live, socialise and move in London circles only.
    I spent today in Bromsgrove. So another Leaver myth can be swiftly despatched.
    It's not a "Leaver" myth - it really pisses me off when you label; I'm talking to you as me, not as a "Leaver" - and it's your own words, sunshine.

    Your social and work circles are both restricted and limited.

    You know this. Accept it and admit it.
    You made an assertion about me, an assertion which I immediately showed to be bollocks. Having had it shown to be bollocks, you decide to ignore the refutation and repeat it.

    It's a complete disregard for the truth that one has come to associate with Leavers.
    Totally empty and pathetic response (and wrong).

    You're in classic Meekstwattery mode today. So I'll ignore you until you've come to your senses again.

    Generally, eventually, you do.
    In the last month I've been in Middlesbrough, Cambridge, Birmingham, Thirsk, Swindon and Bromsgrove (and yes, Hungary twice). Do not make assumptions about me. And do not, when shown to be completely wrong, simply repeat the same false assumptions about me.
    You 'visiting' different parts of the UK doesn't imply you've spoken to anyone there or learnt anything by it.

    If you had, you would not have made the statement you did.
    I haven't seen a good example of the "No True Scotsman" fallacy for some time.
    Not my fault if you're unable to remove the scales from your eyes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:



    Not my fault if you're unable to remove the scales from your eyes.

    What is your fault is that you have deliberately sought to spread entirely false statements about me, even when corrected, simply because you are uncomfortable with my world view.

    An apology is in order.
This discussion has been closed.

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