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System · September 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB cartoon, this time on the travails of travels with Ryainair

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Alanbrooke · September 2017

High turnout in german election

MarqueeMark · September 2017

Shy AfD-ers?

dixiedean · September 2017

Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?

Alanbrooke · September 2017

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?

turnout reportedly higher in the cities

dixiedean · September 2017

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?

Third after recount. Still managed to podium though.

HYUFD · September 2017

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities

The AfD were on 13% in Berlin and 11% in Hamburg with yougov 2 days ago about the same as nationally so I doubt the turnout will make much difference. I am still expecting the CDU/CSU to come first and the AfD third, though a higher city turnout could benefit the SPD a little as they were tied with the CDU in the German capital in the same poll and ahead in Hamburg though the CDU were 11% ahead nationally

https://yougov.de/wahlmodell/

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Good afternoon.

Nice cartoon, although an airship would've been even better

Mexicanpete · September 2017

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities

Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

My favourite Ryanair joke:

Michael O'Leary walks into a pub. The barman greets him cheerfully:

Barman: Special offer today Mr O'Leary, two pints for a pound.

Mr O'Leary: That sounds a bargain, count me in! (places quid in Barman's palm)

Barman: Thank you very much. Could I interest you in renting two of our glasses...

Alanbrooke · September 2017

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities
Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article168975251/Merkel-stimmt-in-Windeseile-ab-Vielerorts-hoehere-Wahlbeteiligung.html

dixiedean · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon.

Nice cartoon, although an airship would've been even better

Surely Ryanair would want a huge fee to upgrade to an airship?

Mexicanpete · September 2017

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities
Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article168975251/Merkel-stimmt-in-Windeseile-ab-Vielerorts-hoehere-Wahlbeteiligung.html

Thanks for the link. I better go and learn German so I can analyse it.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

As a Germanic aside, I sometimes play videogames auf Deutsch. Didn't finish the playthrough of Dragon Age: Inquisition, but was amused that 'cotton' seems to be 'tree-wool' in German.

HYUFD · September 2017

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities
Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?

Good for the SPD in the West, the AfD and Die Linke in the East I would have thought, Merkel polls lower in the cities than she does in rural Germany

dixiedean · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
As a Germanic aside, I sometimes play videogames auf Deutsch. Didn't finish the playthrough of Dragon Age: Inquisition, but was amused that 'cotton' seems to be 'tree-wool' in German.

The best German word I came across was Kabelsalat, literally cable salad, for that unholy tangle behind ones TV.

CopperSulphate · September 2017

Good to see the PB cartoon returning and also nice to see someone is still using Microsoft Paint

Mexicanpete · September 2017

dixiedean said:

Morris_Dancer said:
As a Germanic aside, I sometimes play videogames auf Deutsch. Didn't finish the playthrough of Dragon Age: Inquisition, but was amused that 'cotton' seems to be 'tree-wool' in German.
The best German word I came across was Kabelsalat, literally cable salad, for that unholy tangle behind ones TV.

Cable salad! Who says the German people lack humour?

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities
Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?
Good for the SPD in the West, the AfD and Die Linke in the East I would have thought, Merkel polls lower in the cities than she does in rural Germany

The turnout seems up mostly in the richer areas,

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/911940406811795456?s=09

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
As a Germanic aside, I sometimes play videogames auf Deutsch. Didn't finish the playthrough of Dragon Age: Inquisition, but was amused that 'cotton' seems to be 'tree-wool' in German.

I rather like the German word for bat: Fledermaus - flying mouse.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Dr. Foxinsox, actually, flittermouse used to be the English word for a bat (flittermice plural) and the equivalent is common in other languages. We suddenly shifted to 'bat' for some reason.

MTimT · September 2017

Brilliant knock from Moeen, and can't believe that Rashid is batting 11.

ydoethur · September 2017

I see Mr Moeen Ali had quite a performance this afternoon.

I would like to know again why he isn't batting at five for England in Tests.

Theuniondivvie · September 2017

Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009

tlg86 · September 2017

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009

So long as it's just during the US anthem and not our's.

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009

No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Theuniondivvie · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
As a Germanic aside, I sometimes play videogames auf Deutsch. Didn't finish the playthrough of Dragon Age: Inquisition, but was amused that 'cotton' seems to be 'tree-wool' in German.
I rather like the German word for bat: Fledermaus - flying mouse.

I like Schräge Musik (slanted music), slang for jazz & also upward firing cannons on nightfighters.

Apologies for mentioning the war.

BigRich · September 2017

I am rather hoping for (and sum what expecting) the FDP to renter to the Bundestag with 7-9% and form a coalition with he CDS/CSU.

The FDP seem the most logical of the other party for her to ally with and the maths seems likely to add up just.

HYUFD · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

dixiedean said:
Second. Am medalling consistently in the past few days. This big turnout could be good for Merkel? Am I right, or do we not know?
turnout reportedly higher in the cities
Depends which cities. Good for Mrs M. or the SPD in the West, good for the AfD in the East?
Good for the SPD in the West, the AfD and Die Linke in the East I would have thought, Merkel polls lower in the cities than she does in rural Germany
The turnout seems up mostly in the richer areas,

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/911940406811795456?s=09

Not so sure about that, according to Yougov both the Afd and Die Linke lead the Greens and FDP in both Berlin and Hamburg, the 2 biggest cities in Germany and the Afd also lead both in Bavaria where Munich, the 3rd largest city is

https://yougov.de/wahlmodell/

HYUFD · September 2017

German turnout now lower than 2013
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/911947261244067841

Theuniondivvie · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Hey Monica, why the change of..er..moniker?

williamglenn · September 2017

The new tone didn't last long.
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/911699790018248706

dixiedean · September 2017

BigRich said:
I am rather hoping for (and sum what expecting) the FDP to renter to the Bundestag with 7-9% and form a coalition with he CDS/CSU.

The FDP seem the most logical of the other party for her to ally with and the maths seems likely to add up just.

I think you may be right. They will add the Greens if needed. (Jamaica). Can't see the SPD wanting to continue if at all possible.

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009

Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html

RoyalBlue · September 2017

I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.

Do you think they'll get more than 100 seats ?

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html

That low turnout by fans seems more because of high ticket prices and moves to new stadium, not because of protests.

At a time when white supremacists have friends in the White House, visible protest by prominent African-Americans seem quite in order.

https://twitter.com/matt_slotnick/status/911742335226044416

RoyalBlue · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.
Do you think they'll get more than 100 seats ?

I don't know. No point speculating when we'll know so soon!

BigRich · September 2017

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.

That is possible, a 'shy AfD effect', but if it was likely to be a big facter, then presumably we would have seen it in the regenale elections, where AfD have have picked up seats, but I don't think they are rotenly outperforming there polls.

RoyalBlue · September 2017

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/14/berlin-restaurants-german-english

If I were German this would vex me greatly.

williamglenn · September 2017

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.

It's easy to overinterpret turnout numbers but I suspect they will underperform based on what we're seeing so far today.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Beginning to suspect Iain Martin may not be a follower of Jezbollah:
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/911958954170880002

Benpointer · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
My favourite Ryanair joke:

Michael O'Leary walks into a pub. The barman greets him cheerfully:

Barman: Special offer today Mr O'Leary, two pints for a pound.

Mr O'Leary: That sounds a bargain, count me in! (places quid in Barman's palm)

Barman: Thank you very much. Could I interest you in renting two of our glasses...

Not heard that one before - made me laugh out loud, very good!

rottenborough · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Beginning to suspect Iain Martin may not be a follower of Jezbollah:
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/911958954170880002

Mad cultism spreads to conference floor by looks of things. What a horrendous choice we will likely face at the next GE.

Mexicanpete · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Beginning to suspect Iain Martin may not be a follower of Jezbollah:
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/911958954170880002

As odious as St. Jeremy undoubtedly is, I doubt he is either Hitler or Stalin reincarnate. Although I may well be wrong.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Mr. Borough, surely it's an easy choice?

You can vote for the party of kindness, fairness, workers' rights, and a society that works for everyone. Or you can confess to being a Tory bastard.

Edited extra bit: in case anyone new (or stupid) is reading this, the above post is dripping in sarcasm and marinated in mockery.

Genuinely intrigued by how I'd be intending to vote if Labour weren't led by a self-declared friend of Hamas.

rottenborough · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Borough, surely it's an easy choice?

You can vote for the party of kindness, fairness, workers' rights, and a society that works for everyone. Or you can confess to being a Tory bastard.

Edited extra bit: in case anyone new (or stupid) is reading this, the above post is dripping in sarcasm and marinated in mockery.

Genuinely intrigued by how I'd be intending to vote if Labour weren't led by a self-declared friend of Hamas.

The former needs to prove to me that they actually believe in Parliamentary democracy and the rule of law.

surbiton · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html

How ? They will still be employed.

MTimT · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html
That low turnout by fans seems more because of high ticket prices and moves to new stadium, not because of protests.

At a time when white supremacists have friends in the White House, visible protest by prominent African-Americans seem quite in order.

https://twitter.com/matt_slotnick/status/911742335226044416

With you on this one. And it is also tied up with the whole Colin Kaepernick situation

tlg86 · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html
That low turnout by fans seems more because of high ticket prices and moves to new stadium, not because of protests.

At a time when white supremacists have friends in the White House, visible protest by prominent African-Americans seem quite in order.

https://twitter.com/matt_slotnick/status/911742335226044416

I don't think Thursday night games are that popular with the match going fans. I went to NY Jets @ NE Patriots on a Thursday night in 2014 and the stadium was far from full. Perhaps it was the bad weather, perhaps it was the perceived rubbishness of the Jets (they very nearly won), but the stadium was full for their other games that season.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.
It's easy to overinterpret turnout numbers but I suspect they will underperform based on what we're seeing so far today.

I think that we probably will see over performance of Die Linke and the Greens. It seems nailed on for AfD to be represented, but it would be good to see them in 4th or 5th place. Recent European elections do seem to have strong turnout for the more radical Left.

surbiton · September 2017

surbiton said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html
How ? They will still be employed.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-24/donald-trump-urges-nfl-fans-to-boycott-games-on-twitter/8979836

This has further inflamed the situation. Theuniondivvie choosing to use Trump's words. Disrespectful to Black Americans. Racist.

Sean_F · September 2017

Turnout seems to well up in former East Germany, presumably to the benefit of AFD and Die Linke.

rcs1000 · September 2017

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.

The AfD has outperformed its polling meaningfully in the Laander elections in the last two years, which suggests they will.

On the other hand, populist parties (FN, PVV, OFP) in other countries have all done meaningfully less well on polling day than they had done in the polls.

I'd reckon the first factor will be bigger in Germany. AfD 9-10%, I'd guess.

murali_s · September 2017

williamglenn said:
The new tone didn't last long.
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/911699790018248706

What stick is this moron talking about? Jeez, we really do have numerous numpties (on both sides) in the HoC.

williamglenn · September 2017

Imagine the reaction if Merkel had published an article in the UK on the day of the General Election.

https://twitter.com/ninadschick/status/911972744165777409

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

murali_s said:

williamglenn said:
The new tone didn't last long.
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/911699790018248706
What stick is this moron talking about? Jeez, we really do have numerous numpties (on both sides) in the HoC.

Interesting to see this on David Allen Green's twitter:

https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/911611616969576448

Sabine is Deputy Chief Negotiator for the EU.

PBers with Facebook may want to checkout Verhofstadt's reaction too, as he will have a say in whether the EP signs off any deal that Barnier comes to:

https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/911273823961518080

SouthamObserver · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Why is it posing? They're exercising their democratic right to protest. What could be more American?

MarqueeMark · September 2017

On the plus side, a Ryanair hot air balloon would have a chance of landing you nearer than 50 miles from your destination city...

surbiton · September 2017

williamglenn said:
Imagine the reaction if Merkel had published an article in the UK on the day of the General Election.

https://twitter.com/ninadschick/status/911972744165777409

That was crass and stupid. Her days are numbered, sadly. However, as a Labour supporter I want het to stay as long as possible.

Quincel · September 2017

rcs1000 said:

RoyalBlue said:
I think we're going to see the AfD over perform. The social pressure not to voice support for them in Germany must be immense.
The AfD has outperformed its polling meaningfully in the Laander elections in the last two years, which suggests they will.

On the other hand, populist parties (FN, PVV, OFP) in other countries have all done meaningfully less well on polling day than they had done in the polls.

I'd reckon the first factor will be bigger in Germany. AfD 9-10%, I'd guess.

Surely 9-10 wouldn't be outperforming their polling? Only 1 poll in all of September has had AfD below 9%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017#2017

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Why is it posing? They're exercising their democratic right to protest. What could be more American?

Changing tv channel and not attending spectacles in which patriotic US symbols are denigrated are more American.

SouthamObserver · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Why is it posing? They're exercising their democratic right to protest. What could be more American?

Changing tv channel and not attending spectacles in which patriotic US symbols are denigrated are more American.

That doesn't make the protesting players poseurs. If anything, it means they are putting their principles first.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Just checking Ladbrokes for a German market (not too surprised they don't have one) and saw Waters is now favourite, below evens, for the UKIP gig. Don't think I backed her, but I did mention when we discussed that a short time ago that the voting system would favour her.

murali_s · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html

They are very brave, courageous and principled. Bravo for standing up to injustice.

surbiton · September 2017

Off to watch the TV.

Go Merkel go !

MTimT · September 2017

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Why is it posing? They're exercising their democratic right to protest. What could be more American?

Changing tv channel and not attending spectacles in which patriotic US symbols are denigrated are more American.

That doesn't make the protesting players poseurs. If anything, it means they are putting their principles first.

I think when Kaepernick first did the knee during the anthem, most non-Black Americans saw it as disrespectful. Now, following Trump's crass tweets, his dis-inviting of Stephen Curry from the White House, I don't think it will be long before it is considered the patriotic duty of all Americans to kneel during the anthem. This is becoming an anti-Trump protest, as much as anything else, at this point.

DoubleCarpet · September 2017

Bit disappointed not to have a thread on Germany, but hey.

Coverage:

http://www.ardmediathek.de/tv/Deutsche-Welle/live?kanal=5876

Results:

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2017.html

Richard_Tyndall · September 2017

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

SouthamObserver said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
No wonder NFL ratings are collapsing. Ridiculous poseurs.

Why is it posing? They're exercising their democratic right to protest. What could be more American?

Changing tv channel and not attending spectacles in which patriotic US symbols are denigrated are more American.

That doesn't make the protesting players poseurs. If anything, it means they are putting their principles first.

Agree entirely. Moreover the bended knee response actually seems a respectful way to make their protest. They are able to make their views clear without dishonouring their flag, anthem or country.

America is supposed to be all about freedom of expression so all power to them.

Richard_Tyndall · September 2017

murali_s said:

Birra_Moretti said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sons of bitches disrespecting the national anthem.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/911946340057387009
Sad to see these misguided athletes killing their golden goose ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4911558/49ers-Rams-play-half-stadium.html
They are very brave, courageous and principled. Bravo for standing up to injustice.

Not often we agree but 100% with you on this one.

williamglenn · September 2017

Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489

Alanbrooke · September 2017

CDU: 32,5 Prozent / SPD: 20,0 Prozent / Linkspartei: 9,0 Prozent / Grüne: 9,5 Prozent / FDP: 10,5 Prozent / AfD: 13,5 Prozent

HYUFD · September 2017

Germany exit poll

CDU 33.5
SPD 21
AfD 13
Die Linke 9
FDP 10
Greens 9

Alanbrooke · September 2017

Ooh if thats right what a mess

HYUFD · September 2017

CDU and SPD both down on final polls, AfD slightly up and a clear third and closer to SPD than SPD to CDU. FDP also beat Die Linke and Greens for 4th

Richard_Tyndall · September 2017

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489

Sorry I have not been following this closely. How does that compare with the predictions?

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489

Looks like you were wrong. Again.

Alanbrooke · September 2017

Once again Merkel has screwed up

NickPalmer · September 2017

German result pretty much in line with the polls, except it's a really terrible SPD result and the AfD slightly above the average (INSA seems to have got them best). Not obvious what the best coalition is, but maybe Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Green)

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.

DoubleCarpet · September 2017

Well on the exit polls the only majority coalitions are another grand with the SPD, or a Jamaica with the FDP & Greens.

Black-yellow is not a majority.

Only 32-33 for the CDU/CSU.

Alanbrooke · September 2017

NickPalmer said:
German result pretty much in line with the polls, except it'd a really terrible SPD result and the AfD slightly above the average (INSA seems to have got them best). Not obvious what the best coalition is, but maybe Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Green)

errr no CDU was on37% in polls

HYUFD · September 2017

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489
Sorry I have not been following this closely. How does that compare with the predictions?

CDU and SPD both doing worse, AfD and FDP and Greens doing better, Linke about the same

dixiedean · September 2017

German TV exit Poll:
CDU/CSU 33.5
SPD 21
AfD 13
FDP 10
Green 9
Linke 9

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

NickPalmer said:
German result pretty much in line with the polls, except it'd a really terrible SPD result and the AfD slightly above the average (INSA seems to have got them best). Not obvious what the best coalition is, but maybe Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Green)

LOL.

numbertwelve · September 2017

Bad-ish night for Merkel if that bears out. Down significantly from the last election and looking like a shaky government formation ahead.

RoyalBlue · September 2017

Very disappointing result for the CDU, considering they were near an absolute majority last time.

Merkel has paid for her mistake.

williamglenn · September 2017

Birra_Moretti said:

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489
Looks like you were wrong. Again.

My prediction in January was Jamaica and it looks like I will be right.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Seat projections and swings here:

https://twitter.com/Joe_C_London/status/911983918378823680

logical_song · September 2017

dixiedean said:
German TV exit Poll:
CDU/CSU 33.5
SPD 21
AfD 13
FDP 10
Green 9
Linke 9

All 4 minor parties quite close together.

surbiton · September 2017

Grand or Jamaica ? I think the SPD should stay out of this.

HYUFD · September 2017

NickPalmer said:
German result pretty much in line with the polls, except it'd a really terrible SPD result and the AfD slightly above the average (INSA seems to have got them best). Not obvious what the best coalition is, but maybe Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Green)

No, CDU clearly down on every poll, SPD also down significantly from most final polls and a terrible result for them. AfD matched its best poll and outperformed the others, Greens did better than final polls too

dixiedean · September 2017

NickPalmer said:
German result pretty much in line with the polls, except it's a really terrible SPD result and the AfD slightly above the average (INSA seems to have got them best). Not obvious what the best coalition is, but maybe Jamaica (CDU/FDP/Green)

Jamaica or a continuation of the current look the only 2 possibilities.

Birra_Moretti · September 2017

williamglenn said:

Birra_Moretti said:

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489
Looks like you were wrong. Again.
My prediction in January was Jamaica and it looks like I will be right.

We don't have to go back to January for your prediction. It's on this thread and looks bad.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

williamglenn said:

Birra_Moretti said:

williamglenn said:
Wow.
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/911983605924159489
Looks like you were wrong. Again.
My prediction in January was Jamaica and it looks like I will be right.

It was a good tip. I got a few quid on.

surbiton · September 2017

RoyalBlue said:
Very disappointing result for the CDU, considering they were near an absolute majority last time.

Merkel has paid for her mistake.

Merkel is the greatest European leader since the war.

NickPalmer · September 2017

I think a continuation of CRU-SPD is unlikely, even though they look like having a majority - the SPD must be fed up with the 2nd place partner effect (cf. LibDems), and the CDU is down heavily (mostly to the FDP). They need a winner, and as neither Linke nor AfD are possible partners for the CDU, that leaves FDP and/or Greens.

williamglenn · September 2017

surbiton said:
Grand or Jamaica ? I think the SPD should stay out of this.

It has to be Jamaica, otherwise the AfD are the main opposition. For that reason the other parties will make it happen.

numbertwelve · September 2017

surbiton said:
Grand or Jamaica ? I think the SPD should stay out of this.

Indicators are the SPD want to go into opposition to rebuild, or would at least feel comfortable doing so.

Key thing here is what overtures the Greens make.

HYUFD · September 2017

So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!

dixiedean · September 2017

Warning!

These are exit polls. Much higher take-up of postal ballots this time.