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System · September 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The war without end

Picture: Not the last Tory PM to have their premiership destroyed by Europe

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RobD · September 2017

First, glorious first.

Thanks for the header, TSE

RobD · September 2017

And it goes without saying, Maggie was truly the best.

Nigelb · September 2017

RobD said:
And it goes without saying, Maggie was truly the best.

Well, she certainly proved the dictum in a previous thread that eight years is quite long enough for most leaders to lose whatever it was that made them a defensible choice in the first place.

surbiton · September 2017

RobD said:
And it goes without saying, Maggie was truly the best.

If I am correct it was the Tory party that sacked her!

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

I noted several weeks ago she'd chosen the Autumn Equinox for her speech where light and dark are equally balanced but we enter the dark half of the year. It's also where we enter the Libra on in the Zodiac though the scales where weighted and judgement offered on Mrs May last June. Read into all that what ( if anything ) you will but in Brexit terms I fear things are about to get much much darker before we get to the Spring of the eventual deal. The phrase " Winter is Coming " could have been written for the Tory Euro Wars. As is said in the TV series but not IIRC the books " The Starks are always proved right in the end. "

rkrkrk · September 2017

If as reported TM wants two year transition period + 20bn euros (not sure we should be so quick to accept the currency risk)... then I would imagine EU will say yes after looking for a bit more.

The crucial thing I suspect willl be - can she get enough of her own party on board. The likes of Redeood, JRM etc have been against any kind of ongoing payment. Perhaps they can rationalise this as settling the account/small payment for pseudo EU membership. I suppose if the bill for transition membership is too low - then the temptation to stay in that state will be all the greater.

Anyway - I feel a bit heartened - perhaps naively...

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

OldKingCole · September 2017

Having just got up, was that two LD gains last night!!!!

Like Mr Submarine’s story. I was waiting for a colleague in a meeting about combating drug addiction. He was a bit late and burst into the office saying 'Thatchers resigned’.

We both knew it was an ‘I remember’ moment.

OchEye · September 2017

Nigelb said:

RobD said:
And it goes without saying, Maggie was truly the best.
Well, she certainly proved the dictum in a previous thread that eight years is quite long enough for most leaders to lose whatever it was that made them a defensible choice in the first place.

Where as with May, a new record was created from the first day when she gave her speech in Downing Street...

According to reports, there will be no one from the EU commission in Florence. She really represents how much we are seen to be important to Europe. Is there a bet on how many empty seats there will be?

rkrkrk · September 2017

OchEye said:

Nigelb said:

RobD said:
And it goes without saying, Maggie was truly the best.
Well, she certainly proved the dictum in a previous thread that eight years is quite long enough for most leaders to lose whatever it was that made them a defensible choice in the first place.
Where as with May, a new record was created from the first day when she gave her speech in Downing Street...

According to reports, there will be no one from the EU commission in Florence. She really represents how much we are seen to be important to Europe. Is there a bet on how many empty seats there will be?

I don't see that it matters much who is actually in the room.
My bet would be no empty seats because TM and team will ensure it.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.

Indeed it was largely her creation. If I were scripting this psychodrama myself I'd have Merkel announce she'd be traveling to Manchester's Free Trade Hall to give a speech responding to May's Florence vision. Then the speech after a blasting defence of open markets Angela would slip in they were commissioning a Thatcher statue in Brussels to honour her place in European history for securing the Single Market.

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent short term success they've had in steming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.

TheScreamingEagles · September 2017

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.

It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.

Monksfield · September 2017

rkrkrk said:
If as reported TM wants two year transition period + 20bn euros (not sure we should be so quick to accept the currency risk)... then I would imagine EU will say yes after looking for a bit more.

The crucial thing I suspect willl be - can she get enough of her own party on board. The likes of Redeood, JRM etc have been against any kind of ongoing payment. Perhaps they can rationalise this as settling the account/small payment for pseudo EU membership. I suppose if the bill for transition membership is too low - then the temptation to stay in that state will be all the greater.

Anyway - I feel a bit heartened - perhaps naively...

But it isn't settling the account! This is just ongoing transitional membership. Settling the account is still to be negotiated and will have to be done later. Can kicking is what this is, in recognition of our desperately weak position.

And of course this 'generous offer' is risible spin. The only organisation doing any real offering here is the EU, as they are the ones in the driving seat. To suggest otherwise is arrogance.

Charles · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.

No, it's not.

We would have voted to stay in Maggie's EU. Lisbon fundamentally changed things

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

YellowSubmarine said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
Indeed it was largely her creation. If I were scripting this psychodrama myself I'd have Merkel announce she'd be traveling to Manchester's Free Trade Hall to give a speech responding to May's Florence vision. Then the speech after a blasting defence of open markets Angela would slip in they were commissioning a Thatcher statue in Brussels to honour her place in European history for securing the Single Market.

There is a Meeting Room named for her at the European Parliament:

https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/907962305496969217

Monksfield · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.

When Thatcher resigned we all went down the Golden Lion in Lancaster and sank a few pints of Theakstons XB in celebration. Of course, Thatcher would never have allowed the country to descend into the current shitstorm.

Monksfield · September 2017

This twitter thread is a useful resource for today's events...

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/910978272770641921

Cake and eat it, they need us more than them, froth at the flag bletherers will no doubt not bother to read.

rkrkrk · September 2017

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:
If as reported TM wants two year transition period + 20bn euros (not sure we should be so quick to accept the currency risk)... then I would imagine EU will say yes after looking for a bit more.

The crucial thing I suspect willl be - can she get enough of her own party on board. The likes of Redeood, JRM etc have been against any kind of ongoing payment. Perhaps they can rationalise this as settling the account/small payment for pseudo EU membership. I suppose if the bill for transition membership is too low - then the temptation to stay in that state will be all the greater.

Anyway - I feel a bit heartened - perhaps naively...
But it isn't settling the account! This is just ongoing transitional membership. Settling the account is still to be negotiated and will have to be done later. Can kicking is what this is, in recognition of our desperately weak position.

And of course this 'generous offer' is risible spin. The only organisation doing any real offering here is the EU, as they are the ones in the driving seat. To suggest otherwise is arrogance.

I'm sure there will be sufficient differences to membership as we have now.

I would expect our voting rights to go during the transitional period for instance?
We will probably be allowed to get cracking on trade deals also - albeit I doubt they can come into effect until we are properly out.

Can kicking gets a bad rep. But sometimes it's the right thing to do.
I think this is one of those times.

Edit - I think it's dangerous for May that the overall leaving bill as portrayed in the media is conflating settlement of obligations and ongoing payments... it makes the figures look much bigger, which is probably much less helpful for her...

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Monksfield said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
When Thatcher resigned we all went down the Golden Lion in Lancaster and sank a few pints of Theakstons XB in celebration. Of course, Thatcher would never have allowed the country to descend into the current shitstorm.

One of Maggie's strength s was her clear sense of direction, and her proper preparation. I did not like her, or ever vote for her, but she was a formidable politician for that reason.

To take the WWI analogy, the Brexiteers are launching a battle with all the capability of the Austrians in the Prezymsl campaign or French in the Nivelle offensive. Maggie would have been as well organised as the British at Amiens 1918.

Sandpit · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.

Quite. I’m no huge fan of military interventions abroad, but there would have been a massacre in Benghazi if the world had stood by and done nothing. Sometimes it is the right thing to do.

A very good effort from the Hereford Branch of the Diplomatic Service, to get the Brits and other Westerners working in the desert oil fields out of the place as well.

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.

Oh not that old chestnut. We can't possibly know how many would have died if we hadn't launched a vanity war but who cares anyway. We sit back as tens of thousands die every passing month. What there was hard evidence of at the time - from Iraq and Afghanistan - is that blowing up central governments in these sorts of states just leads to vacuums filled by the intimately worse. There are no control experiments in politics and there is the land route via Turkey but migrant crisis has been made far worse by the folly of blowing up Libya. And the migrant crisis certainly didn't help Remain.

TheScreamingEagles · September 2017

YellowSubmarine said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.
Oh not that old chestnut. We can't possibly know how many would have died if we hadn't launched a vanity war but who cares anyway. We sit back as tens of thousands die every passing month. What there was hard evidence of at the time - from Iraq and Afghanistan - is that blowing up central governments in these sorts of states just leads to vacuums filled by the intimately worse. There are no control experiments in politics and there is the land route via Turkey but migrant crisis has been made far worse by the folly of blowing up Libya. And the migrant crisis certainly didn't help Remain.

It was such a serious situation even the French were up for a military intervention.

Recidivist · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
When Thatcher resigned we all went down the Golden Lion in Lancaster and sank a few pints of Theakstons XB in celebration. Of course, Thatcher would never have allowed the country to descend into the current shitstorm.
One of Maggie's strength s was her clear sense of direction, and her proper preparation. I did not like her, or ever vote for her, but she was a formidable politician for that reason.

To take the WWI analogy, the Brexiteers are launching a battle with all the capability of the Austrians in the Prezymsl campaign or French in the Nivelle offensive. Maggie would have been as well organised as the British at Amiens 1918.

There's nothing like a well chosen metaphor to make a complex situation clear.

not_on_fire · September 2017

Brexit is tearing the Tories apart because May has interpreted a narrow 52-48 win for Leave as a thumping 70-30 majority. The latter result would have justified the hard brexit policy she is following, whereas the actual mandate implies EEA membership

malcolmg · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.

That worked out well did it not, replace one nutter with hordes of them.

MaxPB · September 2017

It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Recidivist said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
When Thatcher resigned we all went down the Golden Lion in Lancaster and sank a few pints of Theakstons XB in celebration. Of course, Thatcher would never have allowed the country to descend into the current shitstorm.
One of Maggie's strength s was her clear sense of direction, and her proper preparation. I did not like her, or ever vote for her, but she was a formidable politician for that reason.

To take the WWI analogy, the Brexiteers are launching a battle with all the capability of the Austrians in the Prezymsl campaign or French in the Nivelle offensive. Maggie would have been as well organised as the British at Amiens 1918.
There's nothing like a well chosen metaphor to make a complex situation clear.

I paraphrase, and as any fule kno, Amiens was largely the work of the Australians. It was a triumph of combined arms co ordination, and the battle that set the Germans into a retreat and collapse leading to capitulation. It was the battle that brought trench warfare to an end and brought back mobility, kicking off the 100 days.

On further thought, perhaps the Brexiteers are more like the Italians at the Isonzo, futilely attaching an impregnable position, repeatedly...

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Good morning, my fellow Britons.

F1: Mexico's race will go ahead as planned. I believe some other sporting events (due sooner) have been delayed. No idea if/what repairs are needed to the circuit but there are obviously higher priorities right now.

Edited extra bit: oh, and my books is out today. Some splendid comedy: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Kingdom-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B0757PMR7F/

rkrkrk · September 2017

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?

Speaking only for myself... I am too young to remember Thatcher.

I think that helps give a certain distance/overcome a kind of emotional reaction that many older lefties I meet have towards her.

I remember after Ed. M. lost in 2015 - the older members of our local Labour party blamed Thatcher for the defeat. Which to me seemed crazy.

TheScreamingEagles · September 2017

Recidivist said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
When Thatcher resigned we all went down the Golden Lion in Lancaster and sank a few pints of Theakstons XB in celebration. Of course, Thatcher would never have allowed the country to descend into the current shitstorm.
One of Maggie's strength s was her clear sense of direction, and her proper preparation. I did not like her, or ever vote for her, but she was a formidable politician for that reason.

To take the WWI analogy, the Brexiteers are launching a battle with all the capability of the Austrians in the Prezymsl campaign or French in the Nivelle offensive. Maggie would have been as well organised as the British at Amiens 1918.
There's nothing like a well chosen metaphor to make a complex situation clear.

Yup. That’s why I enjoy putting historical references into my thread headers.

Plus I like to help educate PBers on historical matters.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?

I was very glad to see the back of her, but she was undoubtably intelligent and purposeful, at least until hubris brought her down.

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.
Oh not that old chestnut. We can't possibly know how many would have died if we hadn't launched a vanity war but who cares anyway. We sit back as tens of thousands die every passing month. What there was hard evidence of at the time - from Iraq and Afghanistan - is that blowing up central governments in these sorts of states just leads to vacuums filled by the intimately worse. There are no control experiments in politics and there is the land route via Turkey but migrant crisis has been made far worse by the folly of blowing up Libya. And the migrant crisis certainly didn't help Remain.
It was such a serious situation even the French were up for a military intervention.

I'm sorry but I'm going through one of my John Bright phases. No to reintroducing the Corn Laws/leaving the Single Market. And no vanity wars !

TheScreamingEagles · September 2017

Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881

rkrkrk · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881

You could always push us to emigrate?

Jonathan · September 2017

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?

Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump

old_labour · September 2017

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?

Like.

logical_song · September 2017

OldKingCole said:
Having just got up, was that two LD gains last night!!!!

Like Mr Submarine’s story. I was waiting for a colleague in a meeting about combating drug addiction. He was a bit late and burst into the office saying 'Thatchers resigned’.

We both knew it was an ‘I remember’ moment.

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Oulton Broad (Waveney ) result:

CON: 50.2% (+8.8)
LAB: 34.0% (+5.4)
UKIP: 10.7% (-11.2)
LDEM: 5.1% (+5.1)

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Oadby Uplands (Oadby & Wigston) result:

LDEM: 39.0% (+1.2)
LAB: 34.5% (+2.2)
CON: 26.5% (-3.4)

LDem gain from Lab in multi-member ward.

Liberal Democrat GAIN Oadby Uplands (Oadby & Wigston) from Labour.

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Holmebrook (Chesterfield) result:

LDEM: 50.0% (+21.5)
LAB: 42.6% (-8.5)
CON: 6.1% (-7.2)
IND: 1.4% (+1.4)

Scott_P · September 2017

https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/911120585329176576

Monksfield · September 2017

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump

This, a bunch of pygmies and fantasists, still fighting WW2 and completely out of touch with the modern world and how it operates.

nichomar · September 2017

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump

Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?

DavidL · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.

Quite so. He was a young politician at the time of Srebrenitsa where we saw what happens when people choose not to intervene. It was a horror and this would have been on a far greater scale. He was right to not stand aside.

rottenborough · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881

No s*** Sherlock.

Jonathan · September 2017

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?

She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.

DavidL · September 2017

On topic the deal hammered out at cabinet yesterday means that the Tories will sing with a single voice today.

The compromises needed there to achieve that may mean that the EU will be unenthused about what is on offer. In negotiation terms this should reflect Britain's final offer, take it or leave it, but that only works in my experience when walking away from the table is a credible option. I am not sure that is the case here.

rkrkrk · September 2017

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.

I think it's clear that many of the privatisations have been vindicated by history.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Mr. Monksfield, Mr. Jonathan, and what of the 52% who voted to leave? Pygmies, or fantasists, or jingoistic?

These people you're deriding are just over half the country.

And if the world works by a bureaucratic supranational body accruing power, gradually, over time, by acts which are done without the consent of the electorates from whom the power is being taken then the way the world works needs to change.

nichomar · September 2017

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.

Didn't realise that but she did have a chemistry degree and understood science better than most politicians

Casino_Royale · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.

No it isn't. It's that of Monnet and Delors.

The Single European Act was as far as the UK could, politically sustainably, go and if you read Charles Moore's biography you'll see she had strong reservations even over aspects of that.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.
Quite so. He was a young politician at the time of Srebrenitsa where we saw what happens when people choose not to intervene. It was a horror and this would have been on a far greater scale. He was right to not stand aside.

There are risks both of intervention, and non intervention, though perhaps Rwanda is a better example than Srebrenica where Dutch UN troops were present, and stood by doing nothing.

Both in Iraq and Libya the failure was in reconstruction rather than the military. Building a country is much harder, and requires more intervention and commitment, than ripping one up.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881

That's exactly what I've been saying for months.

Jonathan · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Monksfield, Mr. Jonathan, and what of the 52% who voted to leave? Pygmies, or fantasists, or jingoistic?

These people you're deriding are just over half the country.

And if the world works by a bureaucratic supranational body accruing power, gradually, over time, by acts which are done without the consent of the electorates from whom the power is being taken then the way the world works needs to change.

No, if I am deriding anything, it is the current pitiful excuse of a government which is currently failing Brexiteers and Remain voters alike.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

"in that time frame every Tory Prime Minister has had their premiership either ended or destroyed by European Community/Union affairs"

More accurately, it's the development of the EU post-1988 that's been the problem. The Tories were pretty united up until 1985, even if some had some principled reservations.

Rather than conclude the problem is the Tory party, and don't forget the roots of UKIP emerged at the same time, one might conclude that perhaps the EU is a bad fit for the UK.

DavidL · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YellowSubmarine said:
While we are on Italy and the EU here's an interesting piece on recent shirt term success they've had in steaming the migrant flow - and the price Italy is paying for it. https://nyti.ms/2jBzboQ

And it's even sort of on topic. Cameron's two greatest errors - the Referendum promise in the Bloomberg speech and the Vanity War in Libya - are curiously conjoined.
It wasn’t a vanity war.

He had a choice. Either do nothing and see tens of thousands be killed or degrade the ability of Qaddafi’s military to wage war.
Quite so. He was a young politician at the time of Srebrenitsa where we saw what happens when people choose not to intervene. It was a horror and this would have been on a far greater scale. He was right to not stand aside.
There are risks both of intervention, and non intervention, though perhaps Rwanda is a better example than Srebrenica where Dutch UN troops were present, and stood by doing nothing.

Both in Iraq and Libya the failure was in reconstruction rather than the military. Building a country is much harder, and requires more intervention and commitment, than ripping one up.

I completely agree but not everything is our fault. In the case of Libya, for example, building the country up is largely a matter for them, not us. We did not have a significant number of troops on the ground. This was not an Iraq situation. It was for the warring parties to reach the compromises, not for us to impose them.

Could we have done more? Possibly, but the current state of Libya is the fault of the Libyans way more than anyone else. The lack of a civil society under a fairly mad dictator and the tribal nature of their society were problems but it is a rich country and should have been capable of overcoming these.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
No it isn't. It's that of Monnet and Delors.

The Single European Act was as far as the UK could, politically sustainably, go and if you read Charles Moore's biography you'll see she had strong reservations even over aspects of that.

She had it whipped through the Commons, and described the Single Market as "an overriding positive goal" in 1985.

Though perhaps you are right, and Maggie was less astute than she appeared.

FF43 · September 2017

rottenborough · September 2017

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.
Didn't realise that but she did have a chemistry degree and understood science better than most politicians

My memory is she responded when the Green Party suddenly experienced a surge. The 'Today' newspaper came out and urged its readers to vote Green. Late eighties iirc.

As a chemist though it does seem she understood the issue.

FF43 · September 2017

not_on_fire said:
Brexit is tearing the Tories apart because May has interpreted a narrow 52-48 win for Leave as a thumping 70-30 majority. The latter result would have justified the hard brexit policy she is following, whereas the actual mandate implies EEA membership

The Conservative government interpreted a thumping 70-30 majority within their own party as a mandate for extreme Brexit.

Will the Tories be united over Europe now "the boil has been lanced" by the referendum? Of course not. We're leaving the EU without any general agreement within the Conservative Party about the way forward, let alone a practical plan. If Canada plus happens, and incidentally the option is rejected by Michel Barnier, there will be a decade's gap to fill. In any case the Canada option is a fairly miserable one from our interest, that's why they want "plus". The Conservatives are more divided on Europe than they ever have been.

Monksfield · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Monksfield, Mr. Jonathan, and what of the 52% who voted to leave? Pygmies, or fantasists, or jingoistic?

These people you're deriding are just over half the country.

And if the world works by a bureaucratic supranational body accruing power, gradually, over time, by acts which are done without the consent of the electorates from whom the power is being taken then the way the world works needs to change.

And the people you deride are just under half the country. Therein lies the problem.

The demographics speak it out loud Mr Morris, to paraphrase Arnie, we'll be back. The world faces problems that can ultimately only be dealt with by supranational bodies. To influence requires participation. Participation requires agreement, compromise and common standards.

You are kidding yourself about sovereignty. This is just about a choice of orbits. I look at Europe and I look at America, and by God, I prefer the former.

Charles · September 2017

DavidL said:
On topic the deal hammered out at cabinet yesterday means that the Tories will sing with a single voice today.

The compromises needed there to achieve that may mean that the EU will be unenthused about what is on offer. In negotiation terms this should reflect Britain's final offer, take it or leave it, but that only works in my experience when walking away from the table is a credible option. I am not sure that is the case here.

There was an odd comment on R4 this morning "Britain's insistence on scrutinising and requiring the EU to justify its monetary claim has soured the atmosphere and made European negotiators pessimistic as to where any deal will be done"

If they really thought they wouldn't be asked to justify their position then they simply don't see this as a negotiation. In which case no deal: we are not supplicants

williamglenn · September 2017

Casino_Royale said:
"Rather than conclude the problem is the Tory party, and don't forget the roots of UKIP emerged at the same time, one might conclude that perhaps the EU is a bad fit for the UK.

The problem with this argument is the huge number of British people (even on the centre-right) who cherish our membership of the EU and see no threat from closer integration. You are fighting a losing battle.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:
"Rather than conclude the problem is the Tory party, and don't forget the roots of UKIP emerged at the same time, one might conclude that perhaps the EU is a bad fit for the UK.
The problem with this argument is the huge number of British people (even on the centre-right) who cherish our membership of the EU and see no threat from closer integration. You are fighting a losing battle.

Comical Ali is up early again, I see.

foxinsoxuk · September 2017

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881
That's exactly what I've been saying for months.

The problem for the Tories, is that the young are pro EU. A Brexit that works for the young is not one that works for the Conservative gerontocracy.

TheScreamingEagles · September 2017

One of the reasons why Mrs Thatcher was a believer in climate change is down to the Falklands War.

The people that showed her climate change was happening were the people that gave such accurate weather reports to the task force to liberate the Falklands.

Morris_Dancer · September 2017

Mr. Jonathan, a fair comment. The Government is weak. I fear the Opposition is even worse.

It'd be interesting if someone like Cooper were Labour leader right now. Depending on her approach to our leaving the EU, I might be leaning that way. But with Corbyn there, it's impossible.

rottenborough · September 2017

FF43 said:

not_on_fire said:
Brexit is tearing the Tories apart because May has interpreted a narrow 52-48 win for Leave as a thumping 70-30 majority. The latter result would have justified the hard brexit policy she is following, whereas the actual mandate implies EEA membership
The Conservative government interpreted a thumping 70-30 majority within their own party as a mandate for extreme Brexit.

Will the Tories be united over Europe now "the boil has been lanced" by the referendum? Of course not. We're leaving the EU without any general agreement within the Conservative Party about the way forward, let alone a practical plan. If Canada plus happens, and incidentally the option is rejected by Michel Barnier, there will be a decade's gap to fill. In any case the Canada option is a fairly miserable one from our interest, that's why they want "plus". The Conservatives are more divided on Europe than they ever have been.

I am beginning to think the combination of the schisms over Europe and the demographics of the party's declining membership and reliance on older voters, really may spell the end of the Conservative Party as a party of government for a long time.

JosiasJessop · September 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Monksfield, Mr. Jonathan, and what of the 52% who voted to leave? Pygmies, or fantasists, or jingoistic?

These people you're deriding are just over half the country.

(snip)

Urrrm, Jonathon and Monksfield appear to have been talking about the Conservative party, not the referendum. The Conservative Party is not half the country.

Besides, I'd have a lot more time for that argument if you spoke up whenever leavers attacked remainers. They are just under half the country, after all ...

williamglenn · September 2017

Charles said:
In which case no deal: we are not supplicants

At the time of the referendum you posted on here that you and your family would do everything to make sure the people who were voting for Brexit wouldn't suffer. I would suggest that the position you are now adopting is inconsistent with that.

You were mistaken about the facts, about our negotiating strength, and about our options. It will soon be your moral duty to stand up and say that you made the wrong call and that Brexit should be stopped. Your honour depends on it.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons why Mrs Thatcher was a believer in climate change is down to the Falklands War.

The people that showed her climate change was happening were the people that gave such accurate weather reports to the task force to liberate the Falklands.

She was a scientist, and understood the science.

DavidL · September 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
No it isn't. It's that of Monnet and Delors.

The Single European Act was as far as the UK could, politically sustainably, go and if you read Charles Moore's biography you'll see she had strong reservations even over aspects of that.
She had it whipped through the Commons, and described the Single Market as "an overriding positive goal" in 1985.

Though perhaps you are right, and Maggie was less astute than she appeared.

The Single Market was consistent with what the Tory party and most of the UK had ever wanted out of Europe: a genuinely free trade area for both services and goods. The fact that it has not been fully achieved in respect of services (the UK's strength) 30 years on was and is a major frustration.

What Thatcher didn't want, and what I think we can now say with confidence the majority of Brits didn't want, was the political union that came with it. As early as Maastricht the balance was switching in the EU towards political union across an ever widening sphere. Some Tories were persuaded off that the trade off was still a net gain, others were not. By now those not persuaded have a very clear majority in the party but it has indeed been a long and bitter struggle.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

williamglenn said:

Charles said:
In which case no deal: we are not supplicants
At the time of the referendum you posted on here that you and your family would do everything to make sure the people who were voting for Brexit wouldn't suffer. I would suggest that the position you are now adopting is inconsistent with that.

You were mistaken about the facts, about our negotiating strength, and about our options. It will soon be your moral duty to stand up and say that you made the wrong call and that Brexit should be stopped. Your honour depends on it.

Get over yourself.

malcolmg · September 2017

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?

Abolutely nothing , however she did wreck our industries and replace them with the blood sucking financial services thieves.

Casino_Royale · September 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

YellowSubmarine said:
Re the header I'm a few years older that TSE. I was sitting in an A Level History lesson at school discussing I think Peel when the Deputy Head flew in breathlessly and announced that " Thatcher's resigned ". It's the closest I've ever come to experiencing ESP. You could hear everyone in the lesson thinking " This is it. This is History. This is what A Level students will right essays on in 150 years time and we're living it. "

I remember being told too.

I was in the lounge at a cheap hostel in Borneo, backpacking after being in Australia, chatting to some other travelers, a mix of Brits, Irish, Aussies and Germans. The Chinese manager was watching TV next door, then came in looking shocked, and announced that Maggie had resigned. There was a spontaneous cheer from the guests. Maggie was, like Blair, one of those politicians whose popularity grew with distance from these shores.

The modern EU is largely her creation, via the Single European Act.
No it isn't. It's that of Monnet and Delors.

The Single European Act was as far as the UK could, politically sustainably, go and if you read Charles Moore's biography you'll see she had strong reservations even over aspects of that.
She had it whipped through the Commons, and described the Single Market as "an overriding positive goal" in 1985.

Though perhaps you are right, and Maggie was less astute than she appeared.
The Single Market was consistent with what the Tory party and most of the UK had ever wanted out of Europe: a genuinely free trade area for both services and goods. The fact that it has not been fully achieved in respect of services (the UK's strength) 30 years on was and is a major frustration.

What Thatcher didn't want, and what I think we can now say with confidence the majority of Brits didn't want, was the political union that came with it. As early as Maastricht the balance was switching in the EU towards political union across an ever widening sphere. Some Tories were persuaded off that the trade off was still a net gain, others were not. By now those not persuaded have a very clear majority in the party but it has indeed been a long and bitter struggle.

Bang on.

HYUFD · September 2017

The Tories, like the country at large, are split between those who are willing to accept a lengthy transition period with a large payment to the EU and continued free movement for years if not permanently in order to stay in the single market and those who are not.

May is trying to appease both camps which she will likely fail to do, the next general election in my view will therefore mist probably see a Boris led Tory Party backing a 6 month maximum transition period with minimal exit payments and then full departure from the EU and single market and customs union deal or no deal and a Corbyn and Starmer led Labour party arguing for a lengthy transition period of 4 to 5 years minimum with large payments to the EU and continued free movement the price they accept for that and sone like Umunna and Watson and Khan even arguing for permanent single market membership.

The next general election will therefore be a more Brexit based election than the last one as there will be a clearer dividing line between the main 2 parties

Recidivist · September 2017

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.
I think it's clear that many of the privatisations have been vindicated by history.

No it isn't.

DavidL · September 2017

Charles said:

DavidL said:
On topic the deal hammered out at cabinet yesterday means that the Tories will sing with a single voice today.

The compromises needed there to achieve that may mean that the EU will be unenthused about what is on offer. In negotiation terms this should reflect Britain's final offer, take it or leave it, but that only works in my experience when walking away from the table is a credible option. I am not sure that is the case here.
There was an odd comment on R4 this morning "Britain's insistence on scrutinising and requiring the EU to justify its monetary claim has soured the atmosphere and made European negotiators pessimistic as to where any deal will be done"

If they really thought they wouldn't be asked to justify their position then they simply don't see this as a negotiation. In which case no deal: we are not supplicants

But again you often see this in negotiations too. If one party thinks they have the whip hand they don't have to be reasonable or make reasonable demands. If they are asked to justify a particular demand the response is, tough, this is what we want. We don't need to justify it.

The EU seem to believe they are in that position. It makes a deal unlikely.

JosiasJessop · September 2017

malcolmg said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
Abolutely nothing , however she did wreck our industries and replace them with the blood sucking financial services thieves.

To a large extent, the industries wrecked themselves. There are many reasons why this happened, of which governmental policies, union action and mismangement are just three. However it is clear that the rot in these industries started a decade or more before Thatcher became PM.

It would be interesting to hear what, with hindsight, her critics would have had her do?

HYUFD · September 2017

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:
"Rather than conclude the problem is the Tory party, and don't forget the roots of UKIP emerged at the same time, one might conclude that perhaps the EU is a bad fit for the UK.
The problem with this argument is the huge number of British people (even on the centre-right) who cherish our membership of the EU and see no threat from closer integration. You are fighting a losing battle.

A significant number like the single market and free trade with Europe etc but they would mostly be happy returning to EFTA and staying in the EEA without the need to rejoin the full EU, only around 10% of the British population are full EU Federalist ie they want the UK to be in the EU, the Eurozone and Schengen

malcolmg · September 2017

Recidivist said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.
I think it's clear that many of the privatisations have been vindicated by history.
No it isn't.

Quite the opposite

rottenborough · September 2017

Oh dear.

Outlier?

"The new poll of more than 1,400 UK adults showed 52 per cent of the public back remaining in the EU, while 48 per cent would support leaving."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-majority-uk-british-people-stay-in-eu-not-leave-latest-poll-theresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html

OldKingCole · September 2017

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
Abolutely nothing , however she did wreck our industries and replace them with the blood sucking financial services thieves.
To a large extent, the industries wrecked themselves. There are many reasons why this happened, of which governmental policies, union action and mismangement are just three. However it is clear that the rot in these industries started a decade or more before Thatcher became PM.

It would be interesting to hear what, with hindsight, her critics would have had her do?

Not listen so intently to the Mad Monk, Keith Joseph, for a start. Consequentl;y take a more nunaced approach to ‘modernisation' as technolog advanced.

murali_s · September 2017

HYUFD said:
The Tories, like the country at large, are split between those who are willing to accept a lengthy transition period with a large payment to the EU and continued free movement for years if not permanently in order to stay in the single market and those who are not.

May is trying to appease both camps which she will likely fail to do, the next general election in my view will therefore mist probably see a Boris led Tory Party backing a 6 month maximum transition period with minimal exit payments and then full departure from the EU and single market and customs union deal or no deal and a Corbyn and Starmer led Labour party arguing for a lengthy transition period of 4 to 5 years minimum with large payments to the EU and continued free movement the price they accept for that and sone like Umunna and Watson and Khan even arguing for permanent single market membership.

The next general election will therefore be a more Brexit based election than the last one as there will be a clearer dividing line between the main 2 parties

A very likely scenario in my opinion.

Boris will probably lose his own seat too!

Yorkcity · September 2017

Shall we all sing together oh Jeremy Corbyn on this Historic day of May speech ? I am sure it will uplift us all , which ever way you perceive it.

williamglenn · September 2017

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/911123367570354176

rottenborough · September 2017

What time is this Florence speech?

another_richard · September 2017

DavidL said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:
On topic the deal hammered out at cabinet yesterday means that the Tories will sing with a single voice today.

The compromises needed there to achieve that may mean that the EU will be unenthused about what is on offer. In negotiation terms this should reflect Britain's final offer, take it or leave it, but that only works in my experience when walking away from the table is a credible option. I am not sure that is the case here.
There was an odd comment on R4 this morning "Britain's insistence on scrutinising and requiring the EU to justify its monetary claim has soured the atmosphere and made European negotiators pessimistic as to where any deal will be done"

If they really thought they wouldn't be asked to justify their position then they simply don't see this as a negotiation. In which case no deal: we are not supplicants
But again you often see this in negotiations too. If one party thinks they have the whip hand they don't have to be reasonable or make reasonable demands. If they are asked to justify a particular demand the response is, tough, this is what we want. We don't need to justify it.

The EU seem to believe they are in that position. It makes a deal unlikely.

The EU has always believed they are in that position.

The dogma of EU Infallibility you could say.

It would be interesting to consider how much of the EU mentality derives from the Catholic church and Holy Roman Empire background. There is a striking similarity between the original EEC6 and Charlemagne's Empire:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne#/media/File:Frankish_Empire_481_to_814-en.svg

Britain, of course, was always separate.

Dubliner · September 2017

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
Abolutely nothing , however she did wreck our industries and replace them with the blood sucking financial services thieves.
To a large extent, the industries wrecked themselves. There are many reasons why this happened, of which governmental policies, union action and mismangement are just three. However it is clear that the rot in these industries started a decade or more before Thatcher became PM.

It would be interesting to hear what, with hindsight, her critics would have had her do?
Not listen so intently to the Mad Monk, Keith Joseph, for a start. Consequentl;y take a more nunaced approach to ‘modernisation' as technolog advanced.

As someone working in and round some of these industries at the time, it was mismanagement and failure to invest in the future that was mainly responsible. The mad Monk didn't help. Isit worth bearing in mind that D|D was one of his acolytes.

YellowSubmarine · September 2017

rottenborough said:
Oh dear.

Outlier?

"The new poll of more than 1,400 UK adults showed 52 per cent of the public back remaining in the EU, while 48 per cent would support leaving."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-majority-uk-british-people-stay-in-eu-not-leave-latest-poll-theresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html

Sadly it's not an outlier. Nearly all the polls post referendum have been within MoE of the actual result. Nobody has really changed their minds on the abstract issue. Though there have been shifts on the practicalities. So in that sense the poll is only news in that it confirms the last 15 months of polling on the abstract issue. No Bregret but no buy in to this huge national project either.

JosiasJessop · September 2017

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
Abolutely nothing , however she did wreck our industries and replace them with the blood sucking financial services thieves.
To a large extent, the industries wrecked themselves. There are many reasons why this happened, of which governmental policies, union action and mismangement are just three. However it is clear that the rot in these industries started a decade or more before Thatcher became PM.

It would be interesting to hear what, with hindsight, her critics would have had her do?
Not listen so intently to the Mad Monk, Keith Joseph, for a start. Consequentl;y take a more nunaced approach to ‘modernisation' as technolog advanced.

Care to give examples?

HYUFD · September 2017

rottenborough said:
Oh dear.

Outlier?

"The new poll of more than 1,400 UK adults showed 52 per cent of the public back remaining in the EU, while 48 per cent would support leaving."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-majority-uk-british-people-stay-in-eu-not-leave-latest-poll-theresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html

BMG also had Remain ahead in its final EU referendum poll and Leave won by 4%

Dubliner · September 2017

Sorry for the typos. Fat fingers, too many steroids.

JosiasJessop · September 2017

Off-topic:

This is fun. An electric vehicle that generates electricity every trip it makes:

https://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2017/09/this-cement-quarry-dump-truck-will-be-the-worlds-biggest-electric-vehicle/

I want one!

HYUFD · September 2017

murali_s said:

HYUFD said:
The Tories, like the country at large, are split between those who are willing to accept a lengthy transition period with a large payment to the EU and continued free movement for years if not permanently in order to stay in the single market and those who are not.

May is trying to appease both camps which she will likely fail to do, the next general election in my view will therefore mist probably see a Boris led Tory Party backing a 6 month maximum transition period with minimal exit payments and then full departure from the EU and single market and customs union deal or no deal and a Corbyn and Starmer led Labour party arguing for a lengthy transition period of 4 to 5 years minimum with large payments to the EU and continued free movement the price they accept for that and sone like Umunna and Watson and Khan even arguing for permanent single market membership.

The next general election will therefore be a more Brexit based election than the last one as there will be a clearer dividing line between the main 2 parties
A very likely scenario in my opinion.

Boris will probably lose his own seat too!

Uxbridge voted Leave unlikely, especially with Corbyn backing free movement unchecked for years and 50 billion plus euros to the EU

rkrkrk · September 2017

Recidivist said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.
I think it's clear that many of the privatisations have been vindicated by history.
No it isn't.

Really?
You think companies like Rolls Royce, Jaguar, British Airways should still be in state hands?

To me it's simple. If you can have meaningful competition - then privatise and regulate appropriately. If you can't - then privatisation probably isn't a good idea.

Theuniondivvie · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/910976508960890881

But, but, but they'll all be frothing, reactionary Brexiteers by the time they're forty.
Or so we're told.

rottenborough · September 2017

Speech is 2:15pm UK time, according to Telegraph.

JosiasJessop · September 2017

rkrkrk said:

Recidivist said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

nichomar said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:
It's amazing to see unreconstructed lefties lamenting the end of Thatcher. How brainwashed have you lot become by the EU?
Or perhaps an indication of how far the Tories have fallen. No longer economically liberal, outward looking and ambitious. A nostalgia ridden jingoistic rump
Apart from taming the unions (which pr obably could have been achieved without pitch battles) what elso good did she do?
She understood the greenhouse effect and was an early advocate of policies to prevent it.
I think it's clear that many of the privatisations have been vindicated by history.
No it isn't.
Really?
You think companies like Rolls Royce, Jaguar, British Airways should still be in state hands?

To me it's simple. If you can have meaningful competition - then privatise and regulate appropriately. If you can't - then privatisation probably isn't a good idea.

Whilst I generally agree, I fail to see how the above works for the water industry. IMO that was a privatisation too far.

It's also interesting to think what state our power supply might be in if we'd not privatised the CEGB. Would we have a 'greener' energy supply, or a less green one? Would prices be higher or lower?

FF43 · September 2017

Charles said:

DavidL said:
On topic the deal hammered out at cabinet yesterday means that the Tories will sing with a single voice today.

The compromises needed there to achieve that may mean that the EU will be unenthused about what is on offer. In negotiation terms this should reflect Britain's final offer, take it or leave it, but that only works in my experience when walking away from the table is a credible option. I am not sure that is the case here.
There was an odd comment on R4 this morning "Britain's insistence on scrutinising and requiring the EU to justify its monetary claim has soured the atmosphere and made European negotiators pessimistic as to where any deal will be done"

If they really thought they wouldn't be asked to justify their position then they simply don't see this as a negotiation. In which case no deal: we are not supplicants

The UK went through an exercise of trying to prove it has no legal requirement to pay anything. That's irrelevant and unserious. The whole point of the negotiation for the EU is to create a legal obligation for the money. If it existed already they would demands something else.

The closest analogy I can think of is a group of friends that decide rent a house for a week with planned meals and activities. One of the party, Jim,pulls out the day before. Should he pay his full share, including for the booked meals and activities, none of it or part of it? The money is significant for Jim. The full amount means he won't be able to take a substitute holiday. The extra amounts per head are less for the others but when they go back to tell their partners that it will cost a bit more than they thought, their partners will say, why should you have pay itt. Get Jim to pay. He's the one mucking you around.

So there isn't a hard and fast rule. The group think they 70-30 majority justified in taking a maximalist line. Whether Jim will go along with it depends on how anxious he is to keep in with the group. One thing for sure, the group no longer trust Jim very much.

Theuniondivvie · September 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
One of the reasons why Mrs Thatcher was a believer in climate change is down to the Falklands War.

The people that showed her climate change was happening were the people that gave such accurate weather reports to the task force to liberate the Falklands.

That's interesting. Experts, eh!

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