politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when Boris Johnson ceases to be Foreign Secretary
Comments
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The problem with the Stonehenge tunnel has been the abject failure to make a decision for decades. Disclaimer: I used to drive past it twice a day for about 8 years, on Fridays it was faster to divert through the centre of Salisbury than wait in the queue on the A303.Richard_Tyndall said:
A good example of the Government making a bad planning decision is the Stonehenge bypass/tunnel. If they had got their own way and had not been challenged through the planning process they would have had a cut and cover solution which would have utterly destroyed much of the archaeology around the site. Decisions made by people who have no clue whatsoever about the importance of the archaeological landscape.Sandpit said:
T5 was a complete joke. The anecdote in this part of the world is that Dubai’s T3 was built in the same time as T5’s planning enquiry!
The projects were almost identical in scope, being a couple of large buildings inside the existing airfield boundary, with no more than a couple of access roads and rail stations needing to be constructed outside.
That’s not to say that everything done in the sandpit is better than in the UK, but things like large planning decisions need to be massively speeded up in the UK.
As it is they have been forced to go for a proper tunnel but even there have decided on a plan that in the view of UNESCO would cause serious and irreparable damage to the site. If you are going to have an efficient and well executed planning process then it has to be designed and run by people who actually know what they are talking about and are prepared to make a proper judgement on costs/benefits.
We now unfortunately have two sites in the UK where UNESCO are saying they might withdraw World Heritage Status.
I’ll admit that decision was a difficult one, but they should have had a pair of TBMs digging at the turn of the century. A Parliamentary enquiry would probably have greatly speeded up that sort of decision, with the Lords being especially useful.
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He's enjoying being a pricktease.Alistair said:
Oh, looks like McCain has flipped to a no in the last couple of hours.Alistair said:I think ObamaCare might be toast.
McCain will vote as the gov of Arizona wants and the Governor is in favour of the new shit show that is on offer.
Republicans will get 50.0 -
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.0 -
Trump deserves to be teased. He is a prick after all.AlastairMeeks said:
He's enjoying being a pricktease.Alistair said:
Oh, looks like McCain has flipped to a no in the last couple of hours.Alistair said:I think ObamaCare might be toast.
McCain will vote as the gov of Arizona wants and the Governor is in favour of the new shit show that is on offer.
Republicans will get 50.0 -
Looking at the votes last week, the Tories have probably got *just* enough MPs to get something through if the DUP abstain. The Ulstermen have already agreed to support whatever we agree with the EU though.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.0 -
He’s retiring so doesn’t need to think about being primaried. I think he’s genuinely in two minds about the bill itself and the way it’s (not) been debated.Alistair said:
Oh, looks like McCain has flipped to a no in the last couple of hours.Alistair said:I think ObamaCare might be toast.
McCain will vote as the gov of Arizona wants and the Governor is in favour of the new shit show that is on offer.
Republicans will get 50.0 -
Genuine Tory fear of Corbyn and McDonnell will keep the government together.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.
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If only those progressives from Sinn Fein attended Parliament!Sandpit said:
Looking at the votes last week, the Tories have probably got *just* enough MPs to get something through if the DUP abstain. The Ulstermen have already agreed to support whatever we agree with the EU though.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.0 -
It will keep *a* government together, but not necessarily the one we have now.SouthamObserver said:
Genuine Tory fear of Corbyn and McDonnell will keep the government together.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.0 -
He's only 100/1. I'd rather have my 250/1 on Gus O'Donnell, to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am trying to write a thread on Sir Vince Cable becomes (next) Prime Minister.david_herdson said:
Lib Dems not giving you copy? I mean, Vince puts on hat - isn't that enough?TheScreamingEagles said:I suspect this is going to be a bad week to write threads way in advance.
I suspect the likelihood of that is on a par of Christina Hendricks marrying me.0 -
But will it? There is a significant sub-section of Tory opinion who calculate with a different leader, and better manifesto, they will get the landslide which is, of course, rightfully theirs.SouthamObserver said:
Genuine Tory fear of Corbyn and McDonnell will keep the government together.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.0 -
Their deck shoes fell apart in 3 months.Freggles said:
Great, these look like the one I was thinking of. Thanks.Charles said:
Have you tried Samuel Windsor?Freggles said:
It would have been a while ago I saw it, but I think they recur.TheScreamingEagles said:
From the most recent edition?Freggles said:
The cheap leather shoes advertisement on the back cover.TheScreamingEagles said:
Which edition are you after?Freggles said:My first two comments disappeared. Sad times.
Does anyone have a Private Eye subscription or buy one regularly and feel mildly helpful?
Don't judge me.
Oxfords are uninspiring but still in 1 piece0 -
Remarkably, Vince Cable is the same odds to be next PM as Jeremy Hunt, who is far too long at 100s.david_herdson said:
He's only 100/1. I'd rather have my 250/1 on Gus O'Donnell, to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am trying to write a thread on Sir Vince Cable becomes (next) Prime Minister.david_herdson said:
Lib Dems not giving you copy? I mean, Vince puts on hat - isn't that enough?TheScreamingEagles said:I suspect this is going to be a bad week to write threads way in advance.
I suspect the likelihood of that is on a par of Christina Hendricks marrying me.0 -
There are no credible Tory leaders in the government. Perhaps there is one lurking on the backbenches. We need someone and quick. The Tories are making a scarcely believable mess of the Brexit process.Richard_Tyndall said:On topic. Boris is a pretty poor Foreign Secretary but would be afar worse PM. The Tories and the country need to look elsewhere for any successor to May.
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Where does Jeremy Hunt stand on brexit? £350m for the NHS?david_herdson said:
Remarkably, Vince Cable is the same odds to be next PM as Jeremy Hunt, who is far too long at 100s.david_herdson said:
He's only 100/1. I'd rather have my 250/1 on Gus O'Donnell, to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am trying to write a thread on Sir Vince Cable becomes (next) Prime Minister.david_herdson said:
Lib Dems not giving you copy? I mean, Vince puts on hat - isn't that enough?TheScreamingEagles said:I suspect this is going to be a bad week to write threads way in advance.
I suspect the likelihood of that is on a par of Christina Hendricks marrying me.
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Fair point. I guess what I mean is that the risk of Jeremy and John in 10 and 11 Downing Street make an early general election very unlikely.williamglenn said:
It will keep *a* government together, but not necessarily the one we have now.SouthamObserver said:
Genuine Tory fear of Corbyn and McDonnell will keep the government together.williamglenn said:
I find it almost impossible to see this government lasting until 2019. There's just no way the tightrope can be navigated for that long.DavidL said:
I think you are underestimating the instability and weakness of this government. It could very easily prove to be Boris out, all out.foxinsoxuk said:
Bojo out, Davis to FCO, but who to DExEU? JRM or Gove would be the way to hard Brexit. Hammond would be for soft, but might not take it.DavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.
Apart from the Tory splits on Brexit and money/transition, they have to contend with the keeping the DUP on side as they get into political solutions for Northern Ireland.
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So long as you remember that when Corbyn wins the next election!Ishmael_Z said:
My advice to Remoaners who find the expression "universal suffrage" too polysyllabic is to think of our system as "thick proles get to vote," and to try to accept that this is not a bug but a feature.DavidL said:Talking of Pratchett (and I am a fan) is there a better description of the remainer view of leavers than this? Not even Alastair managed it.
"People on the side of The People always ended up disappointed, in any case. They found that The People tended not to be grateful or appreciative or forward-thinking or obedient. The People tended to be small-minded and conservative and not very clever and were even distrustful of cleverness. And so the children of the revolution were faced with the age-old problem: it wasn't that you had the wrong kind of government, which was obvious, but that you had the wrong kind of people."
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I was right.williamglenn said:0 -
Billy the Kid sticks his oar in:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/18/no-point-tories-arguing-should-pm-rate-will-jeremy-corbyn/
Tories should stop arguing about who’ll be next PM, or else it’s going to be Corbyn.0 -
Alanbrooke
Three years ago exactly Alex Salmond knew he would resign as Scotland's First Minister and leader of the SNP, after running it for 20 of the previous 25 years.
He took his party from 4 MPs and complete irrelevance to majority Government in the first Scottish Parliament for 300 years and then to the very brink of independence.
No-one else in contemporary UK politics could have taken the SNP or Scotland half as far or half as fast.
He is a truly remarkable politician and who knows may yet return to reignite his dream and haunt your nightmares.0 -
If only Boris had said this during the referendum campaign.
Boris told one close friend recently that “nobody ever beats the EU in a negotiation”0 -
His job is to bloody well make sure they succeed!williamglenn said:
He needs to piss or get off the pot.0 -
This would be the weak and crumbling EU that is on the brink of collapsing?TheScreamingEagles said:If only Boris had said this during the referendum campaign.
Boris told one close friend recently that “nobody ever beats the EU in a negotiation”0 -
So, it's always been Boris's view that the EU would punish the UK. Why did he write this three days after the referendum?williamglenn said:
I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.
British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
He is a self-serving liar. He just cannot help himself.
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He will soon dethrone Blair as the most universally loathed figure in British politics.SouthamObserver said:He is a self-serving liar. He just cannot help himself.
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Ooooh! Wonder which recently made-up friend of Boris would go blabbing to the Murdoch press?williamglenn said:
Guess? Have a GO VEry easy if you think about it.0 -
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/909886724830097408dixiedean said:Guess? Have a GO VEry easy if you think about it.
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It's hard to diVine his intentions though.dixiedean said:Ooooh! Wonder which recently made-up friend of Boris would go blabbing to the Murdoch press?
Guess? Hane a GO VEry easy if you think about it.0 -
Time to get rid of Theresa...
Bring on Boris.... And Jezza...
Let's Tango!
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Missed the 6/1 but even the 4/1 I got is starting to look very good.0
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Boris's position is a bit like Kim Jong Un's - remind his enemies that he has weapons but also that attempting to destroy him will start a nuclear warDavidL said:If Boris quits from the cabinet at this time then his chances of becoming leader tend towards zero. It would be different if he was sacked but even May has picked up on the idea that would not be smart. Since he has apparently not given up on the idea of being leader he will hang in there until sacked. Expect more provocation shortly.
One of the many problems that May has is that falling out with Boris in a material way means that she has no majority, at least as long as Gove and Patel seem to be backing him. She is in a horrible position. Couldn't happen to a more appropriate person really.0 -
Simon Coveney on R4 saying the British approach to Brexit is not credible.0
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You will David , should have too long to wait.DavidL said:
A seriously tense night. Salmond's triumphal helicopter was on standby. I hope not to have to go through that again.Sunil_Prasannan said:
3 years ago this very night the CyberNats lost their referendumTheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on your definition of immediate.tlg86 said:If Brexit does turn into the long term disaster that Remain predicted
Mr Eagles, you clearly didn't take on board what Mr Meeks said this morning. Let me remind you what Mr Osborne said before the vote:
"a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession.”
Within 3 years in the grand scheme of things in the universe and economics is immediate.0 -
After the statistician's intervention yesterday I thought Mr Johnson was finished. After Mrs May's statements today he somehow looks stronger againGIN1138 said:Time to get rid of Theresa...
Bring Boris.... And Jezza...
Let's Tango!
This weasel is the next PM!0 -
We seem to have shifted from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved within 12 months of the Leave vote to 10,000 being moved from the entire UK in the next few years.Alanbrooke said:
so good progess being made on rebalancing the economyTheScreamingEagles said:
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
Compare with this from 2014:
' Lloyds Banking Group is planning to cut around 9,000 jobs - around a tenth of its entire workforce - over the next three years, the BBC understands.
More job losses would mark the continuing decline in headcount at the bank since its near-collapse and bailout in 2008 and 2009, at the height of the financial crisis.
Since then it has axed 30,000 jobs, and announced a further 15,000 job cuts as part of a three-year plan in 2011. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29734598
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NO 55%scotslass said:Alanbrooke
Three years ago exactly Alex Salmond knew he would resign as Scotland's First Minister and leader of the SNP, after running it for 20 of the previous 25 years.
He took his party from 4 MPs and complete irrelevance to majority Government in the first Scottish Parliament for 300 years and then to the very brink of independence.
No-one else in contemporary UK politics could have taken the SNP or Scotland half as far or half as fast.
He is a truly remarkable politician and who knows may yet return to reignite his dream and haunt your nightmares.
YES 45%
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Of course it isn't. Putting lazy, narcissistic, right wing chancers - who believe that the EU is our enemy, have no idea of how it works or about what drives FTAs - in charge of the Brexit negotiations turns out to have been an incredibly bad idea. Whoever would have thought it?williamglenn said:Simon Coveney on R4 saying the British approach to Brexit is not credible.
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The next question is what does Corbyn do? Does he help May get the perfectly sensible £30bn transition deal through the Commons over a big Tory Rebellion or does he help a smaller Tory Rebellion bring the government down.
On Maastricht John Smith tried the later. It was Ashdown who saved Major on the Maastricht paving motion. Though there are slightly more third party MP's around now than then. She could buy Plastic and the SNP off with hard cash if it can be sold as keeping Wales and Scotland in the SM for another 3 years.
As the ever conflicting dynamics are the numbers in the whole Commons ( soft Brexit ) and the PCP ( not being seen to agree to a soft Brexit ).
And we've years of this yet to come because this is a transition period where we've no idea what we are transitioning to. We're calling it a Transitional phase because it sounds better than an Airbag or Methadone Brexit.
So we're locked in an eternal referendum campaign where we've just recalibrated Leave and Remain to Hard and soft Brexit. The politics of the Tory Party mean they'll always be space for someone to run to the right and cry no compromise. Which is what Boris is doing.0 -
Can't see this Government lasting to Christmas the way things are going.
We're dealing with a clusterfuck of epic proportions and all these wankers care about is their own ambitions. If ever political change was needed it's now.
It's like the Saturday afternoon wrestling on world of sport . Boadicea May vs Mr Staypuft Marshmallow. With 'Gandalf' Corbyn waiting to slay the winner.0 -
And Macho Man Rees-Mogg Savage waiting in the wings - "Ooh yeah."Monksfield said:It's like the Saturday afternoon wrestling on world of sport . Boadicea May vs Mr Staypuft Marshmallow. With 'Gandalf' Corbyn waiting to slay the winner.
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Blimey, been told Jacob Rees-Mogg is planning to give 9 speeches in 48 hours at the Tory conference.0
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The government will survive as the CPP and DUP won't no confidence themselves...Monksfield said:Can't see this Government lasting to Christmas the way things are going.
But Tessa's done for IMO. `0 -
Figures change Sunil, figures change. Events..Sunil_Prasannan said:
NO 55%scotslass said:Alanbrooke
Three years ago exactly Alex Salmond knew he would resign as Scotland's First Minister and leader of the SNP, after running it for 20 of the previous 25 years.
He took his party from 4 MPs and complete irrelevance to majority Government in the first Scottish Parliament for 300 years and then to the very brink of independence.
No-one else in contemporary UK politics could have taken the SNP or Scotland half as far or half as fast.
He is a truly remarkable politician and who knows may yet return to reignite his dream and haunt your nightmares.
YES 45%0 -
JRM for Foreign Sec in a Boris government (with Gove as CotE and Priti as Home Sec)TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, been told Jacob Rees-Mogg is planning to give 9 speeches in 48 hours at the Tory conference.
Would you finally tear up you membership card? 0 -
The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
ConsiderateYellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
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The appeal of Brexit is getting out of the EU and becoming an independent country again. It's not really all that complicated.YellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
At insane cost. Not very appealing.CopperSulphate said:The appeal of Brexit is getting out of the EU and becoming an independent country again.
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Agreedanother_richard said:
ConsiderateYellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
I'd settle for them acknowledging my presence from time to time.another_richard said:
ConsiderateYellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
I'm pretty sure Theresa's going to fire at least one of her Cabinet colleagues in the very near future. It's the only realistic way she can get back on the front foot. Unfortunately her choices are limited.
David Davis would be seen as an admission that Brexit had hit the rocks. Boris would cause a leadership challenge and Gove is potentially dangerous. Liam Fox has become so peripheral It would just seem eccentric.
It has to be a Leaver and one who is believable as a plotter. One without powerful allies but significant enough for the message to get through.
It's got to be Pritti Patel
PS. F Off from the F off. I like it!0 -
Surely they ask for money?rcs1000 said:
I'd settle for them acknowledging my presence from time to time.another_richard said:
ConsiderateYellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "
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Indeed. I presented the very same question to a group of recent graduates. Their objection was...isn't a considerate child well-behaved and vice versa.YellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "0 -
Has to get through the House though and the Tea Party headbangers don't think it goes anywhere near far enough for them.Alistair said:I think ObamaCare might be toast.
McCain will vote as the gov of Arizona wants and the Governor is in favour of the new shit show that is on offer.
Republicans will get 50.0 -
Good. They are reaping what they sowed. Serves them right.SouthamObserver said:
There are no credible Tory leaders in the government. Perhaps there is one lurking on the backbenches. We need someone and quick. The Tories are making a scarcely believable mess of the Brexit process.Richard_Tyndall said:On topic. Boris is a pretty poor Foreign Secretary but would be afar worse PM. The Tories and the country need to look elsewhere for any successor to May.
What a pity the rest of us have to put up with the results of their delusion.0 -
Fixed it for you ....williamglenn said:
This would be the weak and crumbling EU UK that is on the brink of collapsing?TheScreamingEagles said:If only Boris had said this during the referendum campaign.
Boris told one close friend recently that “nobody ever beats the EU in a negotiation”
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Interesting the latest Boris briefing is in the Sun. May has already lost the Telegraph papers. We're watching to see where Murdoch and Sacred go.
But we could be looking at. #1 Boris topples May #2 Tory MPs topple Boris #3 Non Boris Hard Brexiter successor to May #4 Reset button on the negotiations with a new " Give us what we want or it's WTO " framing.
As the numbers for this aren't there in the commons we may be heading toward another GE to validate a chaotic WTO exit.
So we're back to Corbyn et al. Do we end up with a national government in all but name providing the votes for transition or the opposition team up with Tory Rebels to bring the government down ?
Key differences with Maastricht are #1 Tory MPs fear a Corbyn government more than a John Smith one. #2 More third party MP's around than there were 1992 to 1997 #3 The referendum result. The betrayal is no longer abstract.0 -
Judging by their Twitter activity none of the Sun political journalists are ideological Brexiteers. If the Sun decides to dump the proverbial bucket over them, it will be game over.YellowSubmarine said:Interesting the latest Boris briefing is in the Sun. May has already lost the Telegraph papers. We're watching to see where Murdoch and Sacred go.
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They will when they're older ...rcs1000 said:
I'd settle for them acknowledging my presence from time to time.another_richard said:
ConsiderateYellowSubmarine said:The other dynamic is that the appeal of Brexit psychologically has been that's it's Quantum. Now the wave form is collapsing and we're about to get a specific Brexit ( which will be **** ) Nora needs to requantum it to keep the psychology going.
Or if you prefer Boris is a forward thinking Wizard of Oz who is off to find a new curtain because he knows Dorothy is coming. They'll never admit Brexit was **** just that it was never implemented properly.
I saw a fascinating piece yesterday about researchers finding the best yet predictor of whether someone voted Leave or Remain. It was an attitudinal question used in surveys since 1992.
" Do you think it's more important for a child to be well behaved or considerate ? "
... and discover £$£$£.0 -
Murdoch will jump ship at some point soon... Dacre will stay loyal to the bitter end.YellowSubmarine said:Interesting the latest Boris briefing is in the Sun. May has already lost the Telegraph papers. We're watching to see where Murdoch and Sacred go.
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Boris is below IDS in my league table these days.... theres not many lower down tham that.0
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May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crPl0ITIkS00 -
Yet the pound is up around 10% against the dollar in the last six months, and UK-focused shares are also doing quite well.
Bearing in mind that we had a strong and stable government six months ago, and Labour were falling apart then, no, I don't understand it either. The markets are the most irrational I've ever seen, except for the dot com boom.0 -
Trump is president. Britain is out of the EU. Corbyn is LoO. JRM is a potential Tory leader.Richard_Nabavi said:Yet the pound is up around 10% against the dollar in the last six months.
Bearing in mind that we had a strong and stable government six months ago, and Labour were falling apart then, no, I don't understand it either. The markets are the most irrational I've ever seen, except for the dot com boom.
And you expect rationality from markets?0 -
Well, I did warn y'all that this was the most disastrous election result of the last 50 years at least. Of course, there's always scope for an even more disastrous one next time.Jonathan said:May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
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It's going to get worse before it gets better.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I did warn y'all that this was the most disastrous election result of the last 50 years at least. Of course, there's always scope for an even more disastrous one next time.Jonathan said:May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
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You won't get any disagreement from me. I would trust May's judgment about as much as a Ryanair timetable but even with her in charge a stable majority of 40 or so would have been preferable and much better for UK plc.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I did warn y'all that this was the most disastrous election result of the last 50 years at least. Of course, there's always scope for an even more disastrous one next time.Jonathan said:May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
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Yes, very likely.Jonathan said:It's going to get worse before it gets better.
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Rand Paul has said he's a firm No on the new Senate Bill as it doesn't go far enough. So Collins and Murkowski are enough on their own to block it even without McCain. And as a new Bill it would have to clear the House again. Given the swings and roundabouts from the proposed changes in State funding that's no certain. Screwing Blue states to give pork barrel to Red ones is OK unless you're a Republican Congressman from upstate New York.0
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Re: Murdoch papers. Gove is their go to guy. That he has made up with Boris is significant.YellowSubmarine said:Interesting the latest Boris briefing is in the Sun. May has already lost the Telegraph papers. We're watching to see where Murdoch and Sacred go.
But we could be looking at. #1 Boris topples May #2 Tory MPs topple Boris #3 Non Boris Hard Brexiter successor to May #4 Reset button on the negotiations with a new " Give us what we want or it's WTO " framing.
As the numbers for this aren't there in the commons we may be heading toward another GE to validate a chaotic WTO exit.
So we're back to Corbyn et al. Do we end up with a national government in all but name providing the votes for transition or the opposition team up with Tory Rebels to bring the government down ?
Key differences with Maastricht are #1 Tory MPs fear a Corbyn government more than a John Smith one. #2 More third party MP's around than there were 1992 to 1997 #3 The referendum result. The betrayal is no longer abstract.
Take it Sacred was predictive for Dacre. Oh the irony!
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Don't worry Richard. Embrace the deluge like me.We've decided to relive the 1970's so we might as well get on with it. Vote Corbyn in the 2019 General Election ! Think of it as a laxative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, very likely.Jonathan said:It's going to get worse before it gets better.
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"May must unite the Tories on Brexit..."?williamglenn said:
She'd have more chance of walking on water!0 -
Scaled back her ambitions somewhat...she wanted to unite the nation on Brexit very recently.Benpointer said:
"May must unite the Tories on Brexit..."?williamglenn said:
She'd have more chance of walking on water!0 -
I'm not looking for a laxative, but since the Nabavi household income is either protected, or derives from US-dollar denominated licence and consultancy payments, with a side-topping of government largesse now locked in place by McDonnell's cynicism, and since my investments are as Corbyn-proof as I can make them, I can embrace the deluge without difficulty.YellowSubmarine said:Don't worry Richard. Embrace the deluge like me.We've decided to relive the 1970's so we might as well get on with it. Vote Corbyn in the 2019 General Election ! Think of it as a laxative.
But will there be any decent restaurants, theatres and opera houses left to spend the dosh in?0 -
I doubt Murdoch will be jumping ship in the next 9 months minimum.GIN1138 said:
Murdoch will jump ship at some point soon... Dacre will stay loyal to the bitter end.YellowSubmarine said:Interesting the latest Boris briefing is in the Sun. May has already lost the Telegraph papers. We're watching to see where Murdoch and Sacred go.
He won't want to risk any chance of a GE - because if Corbyn becomes PM (or indeed if there is anything other than a Con led Govt) then the Fox takeover of Sky will be off. For 100% certain.0 -
She ludicrously said the nation was already united and only Westminster was divided.dixiedean said:
Scaled back her ambitions somewhat...she wanted to unite the nation on Brexit very recently.Benpointer said:
"May must unite the Tories on Brexit..."?williamglenn said:
She'd have more chance of walking on water!0 -
We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.DavidL said:
You won't get any disagreement from me. I would trust May's judgment about as much as a Ryanair timetable but even with her in charge a stable majority of 40 or so would have been preferable and much better for UK plc.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I did warn y'all that this was the most disastrous election result of the last 50 years at least. Of course, there's always scope for an even more disastrous one next time.Jonathan said:May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
It's absolutely shocking how sh*ts like Johnson, Gove etc. are putting personal ambition ahead of the country.
I am sure the vast majority of Conservative party members are decent patriotic people who would always put the interests of the country before personal gain; how ironic that their senior representatives are incapable of agreeing a Brexit approach amongst themselves, and collectively sticking to it!
Desperate times
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It would be ghoulishly entertaining to see a minority Labour government, led by Jeremy Corbyn of all people, attempting to sort out the mess. I wonder what on earth they'd actually try to do?Benpointer said:We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.
It's absolutely shocking how sh*ts like johnson, Gove etc. are putting personal ambition ahead of the country.
I am sure the vast majority of Conservative party members are decent patriotic people who would always put the interests of the country before personal gain; how ironic that their senior representatives are incapable of agreeing a Brexit approach between them and collectively sticking to it.
Desperate times0 -
She'd take a great leap forward if she could persuade the Cabinet to unite!williamglenn said:
She ludicrously said the nation was already united and only Westminster was divided.dixiedean said:
Scaled back her ambitions somewhat...she wanted to unite the nation on Brexit very recently.Benpointer said:
"May must unite the Tories on Brexit..."?williamglenn said:
She'd have more chance of walking on water!0 -
Indeed.Benpointer said:
We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.DavidL said:
You won't get any disagreement from me. I would trust May's judgment about as much as a Ryanair timetable but even with her in charge a stable majority of 40 or so would have been preferable and much better for UK plc.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I did warn y'all that this was the most disastrous election result of the last 50 years at least. Of course, there's always scope for an even more disastrous one next time.Jonathan said:May's authority fails its first test. This is not really a government any more. More resembles the sort of test card they put up when there are unresolved technical difficulties.
It's a curious situation - despite no majority the Govt won all the votes on the EU Bill easily last week - because every Con MP knew they couldn't rebel.
Whereas if they had a majority of 20 or 30 then there almost certainly would have been rebels.0 -
Away from the disasters of this government and the Horlicks it is making of Brexit, I am in San Francisco currently and I had forgotten about the levels of homelessness and mental illness that you see here. It's genuinely shocking to see so many incredibly disturbed, vulnerable people sleeping rough on the streets of what is one of the world's richest cities. America is a pitiless place for those who fall through the cracks.0
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It's a good question... but six months ago I'd have wondered what on earth Corbyn would do if he ever faced a GE. In the event he did a lot better than I expected.Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be ghoulishly entertaining to see a minority Labour government, led by Jeremy Corbyn of all people, attempting to sort out the mess. I wonder what on earth they'd actually try to do?Benpointer said:We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.
It's absolutely shocking how sh*ts like johnson, Gove etc. are putting personal ambition ahead of the country.
I am sure the vast majority of Conservative party members are decent patriotic people who would always put the interests of the country before personal gain; how ironic that their senior representatives are incapable of agreeing a Brexit approach between them and collectively sticking to it.
Desperate times
One huge advantage Jezza would have is pretty much universal support from the PLP (and from many Tories too) for adopting a softer Brexit.0 -
Which he doesn't want, and which isn't actually on offer.Benpointer said:
It's a good question... but six months ago I'd have wondered what on earth Corbyn would do if he ever faced a GE. In the event he did a lot better than I expected.
One huge advantage Jezza would have is pretty much universal support from the PLP (and from many Tories too) for adopting a softer Brexit.
I suppose it would end up with us paying €100bn for a hard Brexit.0 -
There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be ghoulishly entertaining to see a minority Labour government, led by Jeremy Corbyn of all people, attempting to sort out the mess. I wonder what on earth they'd actually try to do?Benpointer said:We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.
It's absolutely shocking how sh*ts like johnson, Gove etc. are putting personal ambition ahead of the country.
I am sure the vast majority of Conservative party members are decent patriotic people who would always put the interests of the country before personal gain; how ironic that their senior representatives are incapable of agreeing a Brexit approach between them and collectively sticking to it.
Desperate times
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I am sure the ROH would do very nicely under Labour!Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not looking for a laxative, but since the Nabavi household income is either protected, or derives from US-dollar denominated licence and consultancy payments, with a side-topping of government largesse now locked in place by McDonnell's cynicism, and since my investments are as Corbyn-proof as I can make them, I can embrace the deluge without difficulty.YellowSubmarine said:Don't worry Richard. Embrace the deluge like me.We've decided to relive the 1970's so we might as well get on with it. Vote Corbyn in the 2019 General Election ! Think of it as a laxative.
But will there be any decent restaurants, theatres and opera houses left to spend the dosh in?
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There's precious little evidence so far that the EU is offering anything worthwhile. You can't blame the government for that.SouthamObserver said:There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.
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Under the Blairites, yes, but not quite a Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott/Burgon priority, I suspect.Benpointer said:
I am sure the ROH would do very nicely under Labour!Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not looking for a laxative, but since the Nabavi household income is either protected, or derives from US-dollar denominated licence and consultancy payments, with a side-topping of government largesse now locked in place by McDonnell's cynicism, and since my investments are as Corbyn-proof as I can make them, I can embrace the deluge without difficulty.YellowSubmarine said:Don't worry Richard. Embrace the deluge like me.We've decided to relive the 1970's so we might as well get on with it. Vote Corbyn in the 2019 General Election ! Think of it as a laxative.
But will there be any decent restaurants, theatres and opera houses left to spend the dosh in?
Anyway, time for bed. Play nicely.0 -
Just imagine if Johnson, Gove, Leadsom JRM et al had been around in 1940. Instead of Churchill, Chamberlain and Halifax agreeing Churchill was the best man for the job, we'd have had the current idiots issuing daily briefings against one and other whilst the Nazis marched into London!SouthamObserver said:
There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be ghoulishly entertaining to see a minority Labour government, led by Jeremy Corbyn of all people, attempting to sort out the mess. I wonder what on earth they'd actually try to do?Benpointer said:We'd still have had all this Tory in-fighting, in fact a clear majority would probably have emboldened the head-bangers.
It's absolutely shocking how sh*ts like johnson, Gove etc. are putting personal ambition ahead of the country.
I am sure the vast majority of Conservative party members are decent patriotic people who would always put the interests of the country before personal gain; how ironic that their senior representatives are incapable of agreeing a Brexit approach between them and collectively sticking to it.
Desperate times0 -
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Why would the EU offer anything 'worthwhile'? They have to make it seem worthwhile to be a full member (so no cake and eat it fo us), and all that bollocks that they need trade with us more than we need it with them is proving to be just that - bollocks.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's precious little evidence so far that the EU is offering anything worthwhile. You can't blame the government for that.SouthamObserver said:There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.
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Indeed. The EU offered us membership of the EU with significant advantageous opt-outs. We rejected it.Benpointer said:
Why would the EU offer anything 'worthwhile'? They have to make it seem worthwhile to be a full member (so no cake and eat it fo us), and all that bollocks that they need trade with us more than we need it with them is proving to be just that - bollocks.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's precious little evidence so far that the EU is offering anything worthwhile. You can't blame the government for that.SouthamObserver said:There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.
It is up to us now.
We "Took Back Control", but want the EU to make it easy for us. Like passing your driving test, but insisting you have a fully-qualified instructor, ready to take over the dual controls if we F it up.0 -
Because they would benefit from a deal too. We're not going with a begging bowl.Benpointer said:
Why would the EU offer anything 'worthwhile'? They have to make it seem worthwhile to be a full member (so no cake and eat it fo us), and all that bollocks that they need trade with us more than we need it with them is proving to be just that - bollocks.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's precious little evidence so far that the EU is offering anything worthwhile. You can't blame the government for that.SouthamObserver said:There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.
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Err, yes we are. We are begging for them to help us save face by delivering the benefits of the EU without membership.david_herdson said:
Because they would benefit from a deal too. We're not going with a begging bowl.Benpointer said:
Why would the EU offer anything 'worthwhile'? They have to make it seem worthwhile to be a full member (so no cake and eat it fo us), and all that bollocks that they need trade with us more than we need it with them is proving to be just that - bollocks.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's precious little evidence so far that the EU is offering anything worthwhile. You can't blame the government for that.SouthamObserver said:There is undoubtedly a majority in the House of Commons for a long transition into a very close relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, there is no leadership in any of the parties capable of turning that into a Brexit strategy for the UK. The case for a cross-party coalition to steer us through the next few years has never been greater - but, sadly, it will not happen.
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In general I don't think this poll is framed in the right way, but this is an interesting shift nonetheless. Remainers are becoming less willing to go along with Brexit.
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