politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting
She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement.
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Ha ha ha! Shifting votes from the largest party to the 4th party in order to stop the 2nd party? Someone has a peculiar idea of what "tactical voting" is supposed to be! It's all obviously part of a secret Maoist plot to get people to elect a Labour MP by accident!0
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Based on what happened in May there it's reasonable to UKIP to make such a case.
GE2010 was a long time ago and a lot has happened since.0 -
"Reasonable" in the sense of comparing apples with oranges, and assuming that all-of-a-sudden, as-if-by-magic, the voters are going to start voting in a general election according to the patterns of voting in a local election or even a European election, instead of voting as they have always done in general elections for decades.MikeSmithson said:Based on what happened in May there it's reasonable to UKIP to make such a case.
GE2010 was a long time ago and a lot has happened since.
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Mike, I feel like John Bercow moment coming over me reading this article. It is now eighteen moths until the next GE, and Nigel Farage has yet to declare his intentions. But more importantly, he ain't going to be in any more strong a position to change the Westminster bell weather than when he last stood in this seat. The only party guaranteed to block the Labour party here is the Conservatives with a new candidate, especially if you want to keep the Labour party out of Government.
I am going for a Con hold in this seat with this majority, especially with the economy recovering at such a fast rate. If Farage had really wanted to make an impact here in this seat, he would have declared his interest long ago, and then he would have maintained a very high profile campaign to nail it.0 -
This is the technique that the Lib Dems have used for decades. Build up local credibility through council elections and then present yourself as the only party able to stop XXXX
There's a strong option for UKIP in Thanet South especially if their leader was the candidate.
Without Laura Sandys who achieved a swing far in excess of most Tories at GE2015 the party is going to struggle. This will be seen as a battle between UKIP and LAB. If the non-Lab vote is split then EdM's party could slip in.0 -
I think you need a bit of local knowledge on this one. Is the local Tory Party in a fit state to fight back, or have most of the activists already jumped ship to UKIP?0
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They may have done it for decades, but it also takes decades. It took Paddy Ashdown a decade to overtake Labour and win Yeovil. It took the Green Party three general elections to win Brighton Pavilion. It took Plaid Cymru ages to build up local strength before winning MPs. UKIP can't expect to go from 5% to winning, within 18 months, in one swell foop, just on the basis of one round of County Council elections in mid-term. At the next GE in 2015, there will be swingback towards the Lib Dems as well as the Conservatives. UKIP can't expect to stay up on 15% or 20% (or 25% or 30% in its areas of strength in Eastern England) at GE time, just because there has been a mid-term flash-in-the-pan.MikeSmithson said:This is the technique that the Lib Dems have used for decades. Build up local credibility through council elections and then present yourself as the only party able to stop XXXX
If Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate in Thanet South, he will come 3rd or 4th.
Incidentally, I also think UKIP will come 3rd in the European elections next year with something like 18% to 23% nationally.0 -
Is that a cast-iron guarantee or just a normal one?fitalass said:The only party guaranteed to block the Labour party here is the Conservatives with a new candidate, especially if you want to keep the Labour party out of Government.
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(Off Topic)
I'm reading "The Last Days of Hitler" by Hugh Trevor-Roper (1947) which I found at a Christmas Fair jumble sale. He uses the word "lugubrious" on page 170, and again on page 173.0 -
Farage doesn't strike me as the type who will put in the necessary hard work. He's a bit of a Boris that way, but without the budget to pay six figure salaries to get others to do the work for him. In any case, unlike the mayor, I doubt he's that bothered about being an MP. Being an MEP is so much easier.
It's a huge ask for UKIP to win in Thanet South. But the party will substantially increase its vote share. If this is mostly from Tories, Labour could sneak back in. However, a credible candidate with the right pitch could also take Labour votes. It will be tight.0 -
Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
And I would expect at least some Lab to UKIP switchers, and possibly some switchers from LD to Con to keep out UKIP.
Con hold with reduced majority, Labour pushed into third, is my forecast.tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.0 -
I think Labour could come second with UKIP in third, so no thanks.
I cannot see UKIP winning any seats under FPTP, and Farage is a famously bad campaigner.tim said:
£50 at evens Labour don't finish below second.foxinsoxuk said:Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
And I would expect at least some Lab to UKIP switchers, and possibly some switchers from LD to Con to keep out UKIP.
Con hold with reduced majority, Labour pushed into third, is my forecast.tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.tim said:
£50 at evens Labour don't finish below second.foxinsoxuk said:Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
And I would expect at least some Lab to UKIP switchers, and possibly some switchers from LD to Con to keep out UKIP.
Con hold with reduced majority, Labour pushed into third, is my forecast.tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.0 -
They do in Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.
When the Tory candidates regularly end up in 4th or poor 3rd places, Tory-inclined voters display keen tactical voting behaviour.
This is all the more painful for the Scottish Tory leadership because their vote is spread so thinly and evenly throughout the country, so you can pretty much count on one hand the seats where Tory voters *don't* vote tactically.
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Presumably you mean under FPTP electionsStuart_Dickson said:
They do in Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.
When the Tory candidates regularly end up in 4th or poor 3rd places, Tory-inclined voters display keen tactical voting behaviour.
This is all the more painful for the Scottish Tory leadership because their vote is spread so thinly and evenly throughout the country, so you can pretty much count on one hand the seats where Tory voters *don't* vote tactically.0 -
On Thread = paging Andrew Strauss.... or Jeremy Clarkson....
or Boris... or wee Jimmy Krankie.0 -
One thing we're seeing here is the wisdom of Farage remaining vague about where he'll stand. If the Tories manage to recruit a candidate who will put up a good fight, he can just run somewhere else. Meanwhile the Tories won't know which of the various decrepid local Conservative associations they need to put resources into rebuilding.0
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"the wisdom of Farage"edmundintokyo said:One thing we're seeing here is the wisdom of Farage remaining vague about where he'll stand. If the Tories manage to recruit a candidate who will put up a good fight, he can just run somewhere else. Meanwhile the Tories won't know which of the various decrepid local Conservative associations they need to put resources into rebuilding.
that's about as elusive as the policies of Miliband. At some point they're all going to have to get off the fence.0 -
"A leader without a spine and with no political views might have worked for a while"tim said:Post election civil war battle lines being drawn up in The Times by the looks of it
Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 2m
My brief guide to the decline and fall of Tory modernisation appears in today's @TheTimes http://twitpic.com/dmlppt
David Jack @DJack_Journo 42m
Today's @thetimes: Tory backbenchers warn Cameron he risks split over ditching green policies pic.twitter.com/poA3uBoHbh
A leader without a spine and with no political views might have worked for a while, but if they think he'll fail again at the next election get the rope ready.
makes you wonder why Labour are following in the same path.0 -
Completely OT, but just watched that Paul Mason documentary on Northern Soul again. Absolutely fantastic - he nails it completely:
http://youtu.be/JMtaEASd2LI
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Isn't there something wrong with the figures/changes in the pie chart, since working back from those above doesn't produce a Labour win at the previous election?0
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No, simply doing my job in pointing out how politically illiterate you are. It's my modest contribution to pb's Big Society,tim said:
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A seat in Lincolnshire is a sure-shot for Farage whereas Thanet South is closer to where he lives and better for family life but not a certainty.He`ll probably wait till after the Euros to decide.0
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Apols, I may have missed it, but has Mr Farage announced he will be standing in Thanet South – or is this just idle speculation?0
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I think idol speculation from OGH.SimonStClare said:Apols, I may have missed it, but has Mr Farage announced he will be standing in Thanet South – or is this just idle speculation?
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I'll settle for the peerage: I haven't given up hope. Not yet.tim said:
Looking at your avatar and Daves problem with women I think the Tories made the wrong decision.JohnO said:
No, simply doing my job in pointing out how politically illiterate you are. It's my modest contribution to pb's Big Society,tim said:
Given the choice between being smothered by the chinless red porpoise and the guy who doesn't require his own postcode, I think most of them would prefer to mother the quirky looking guy.
As for you, some work on understanding the New Homes Bonus (and there was I thinking that housing was your specialized subject), followed by an essay on Tax thresholds. Then you can play with your HS2 train set. Deal?0 -
Unfortunately, those who see Mr Farage as their idol are not yet awake and posting...JackW said:
I think idol speculation from OGH.SimonStClare said:Apols, I may have missed it, but has Mr Farage announced he will be standing in Thanet South – or is this just idle speculation?
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2013 local election results:tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.
UKIP 36%
Con 29%
Lab 27%
Oth 7%
UKIP needs to emphasise that its the only party that can beat the 'other lot'.
The 'other lot' being the Conservatives in traditional Labour voting areas and Labour in traditional Conservative areas.
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Cheers JackW - very droll ; )JackW said:
I think idol speculation from OGH.SimonStClare said:Apols, I may have missed it, but has Mr Farage announced he will be standing in Thanet South – or is this just idle speculation?
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Ah, but he's scheduled for an Earldom.JackW said:@JohnO wrote :
"I'll settle for the peerage: I haven't given up hope. Not yet."
They're not all there cracked up to be .... and of course you're second in the PB Peerage List behind the long awaited "Lord Matlock of Beaconsfield"
Dave, I really, really, really would be more than content with a Life Barony. If it's a matter of 'donations', I will readily increase my subscription to the Hersham Branch 200 Club to £30.0 -
Your father has popped backed to bed then ?!?rcs1000 said:
Unfortunately, those who see Mr Farage as their idol are not yet awake and posting...JackW said:
I think idol speculation from OGH.SimonStClare said:Apols, I may have missed it, but has Mr Farage announced he will be standing in Thanet South – or is this just idle speculation?
He does seem to hold a candle, albeit a rather modest one, for Farage. I'm sure it stems from the betting wing of the Ukip opportunities rather than their leaders penchant for garish overcoats or piss poor speculative East European immigration maths.
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I see R0berts never responded to me on the last thread.
Labour, the party which for years complained about factory closures under Fatcha but did nothing while far more factories closed during its government.
Labour, the party which increased taxes on industry and gave the money to its banker mates.
Labour, hypocritical scum.
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I see that the empty vessel is making the most noise again when he has nothing of import to saytim said:0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Just had a weird false start. Tried signing in to post something, but then had to sign in again.
Anyway, a court will hear today the unscrupulous ways of Leicestershire archaeologists and the dim-wittedness of Grayling in a decision that offends common sense. We'll see whether the judge possesses magisterial wisdom or is a bewigged buffoon:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-250987830 -
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It was a real labour of love for Mason, and a great piece of Social history.
Keep the faith!SouthamObserver said:Completely OT, but just watched that Paul Mason documentary on Northern Soul again. Absolutely fantastic - he nails it completely:
http://youtu.be/JMtaEASd2LI0 -
chav work innit ?another_richard said:I see R0berts never responded to me on the last thread.
Labour, the party which for years complained about factory closures under Fatcha but did nothing while far more factories closed during its government.
Labour, the party which increased taxes on industry and gave the money to its banker mates.
Labour, hypocritical scum.
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Just a brief reminder of the campaigning might of Farage:
Speaker John Bercow 22,860
Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy John Stevens 10,331
UKIP Nigel Farage 8,410
I mean, with the greatest of respect, who the hell is John Stevens? A local worthy who is able to outpoll a party leader who had a chair with his name on it on QT and gave all those "hilarious" speeches in Brussels setting about Jonny Foreigner and the hapless Broon.
Suggesting that "the stage is surely set for Nigel Farage to become an MP" strikes me as one of the most hyperbolic thread leaders I can recall. Never going to happen. 3rd. Again.0 -
An Earldom for young Matlock would create a minor problem. He might become the second creation of the Earldom of Beaconsfield after Disraeli died without an heir. However the authorities in modern times are a wee bit sniffy about new creations of a famous title.JohnO said:
Ah, but he's scheduled for an Earldom.JackW said:@JohnO wrote :
"I'll settle for the peerage: I haven't given up hope. Not yet."
They're not all there cracked up to be .... and of course you're second in the PB Peerage List behind the long awaited "Lord Matlock of Beaconsfield"
Dave, I really, really, really would be more than content with a Life Barony. If it's a matter of 'donations', I will readily increase my subscription to the Hersham Branch 200 Club to £30.
In comparison your gazetted life barony as Lord Bournemouth is surely quibble free !!
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We killed him, we get to keep him!Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Just had a weird false start. Tried signing in to post something, but then had to sign in again.
Anyway, a court will hear today the unscrupulous ways of Leicestershire archaeologists and the dim-wittedness of Grayling in a decision that offends common sense. We'll see whether the judge possesses magisterial wisdom or is a bewigged buffoon:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25098783
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Guido's got a good story on the strategy (ahem) behind Ed's bleating:
http://order-order.com/2013/11/26/labours-lynton-is-behind-eds-cry-baby-strategy/
Of course, the smear accusations might stick if Labour and their supporters had no track record of worse behaviour.
And if Ed really wanted to improve things, he could start by apologising to Mitchell during PMQs. But we all know he doesn't have it in him.
(Cue Tim's whining)0 -
Back to YouGov for a moment. In response to the question
Thinking about the way the government is
cutting spending to reduce the government's
deficit, do you think this is...
Good or bad for the economy?
41% said good and 40% bad, up noticeably from last week. I wonder when was the last time the response was net positive.
Clearly hasn't affected YouGov VI yet....but three polls showing Labour lead down to five (2 successive from Populus and last night's ComRes) seems to show the gap narrowing slightly again to 5-6, from 6-7. While Falkirk/Unite/Flowers/Coop are not important in themselves, they have all combined to put Ed on the defensive politically.0 -
Arf! Nichola Sturgeon on R4 is now 'Tina Sturgeon' - 'There is no Alternative' to the pound.....
On topic - Farage has to P*ss or get off the pot....the longer he does 'will he, won't he?' the less serious he looks, and he's starting from a low base.....0 -
On topic, never say never, but I'd want fairly long odds before I bet on this in this constituency.0
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Celebrity candidates don't necessarily need hard work (cf. George Galloway, and indeed Boris), though he had lots of organisation). I'd think that Farage will outperform the normal UKIP rating wherever he stands, as people will be intrigued by having him and he fits the anti-politics mood.SouthamObserver said:Farage doesn't strike me as the type who will put in the necessary hard work. He's a bit of a Boris that way, but without the budget to pay six figure salaries to get others to do the work for him. In any case, unlike the mayor, I doubt he's that bothered about being an MP. Being an MEP is so much easier.
It's a huge ask for UKIP to win in Thanet South. But the party will substantially increase its vote share. If this is mostly from Tories, Labour could sneak back in. However, a credible candidate with the right pitch could also take Labour votes. It will be tight.
Today's YG 40-32 topline was discussed last night. The secondaries are unexciting but seem to confirm a general view of the Coalition's cuts as necessary (57-27) but done unfairly (56-27). It's a similar split to the "doing well for the economy" and "doing well for living standards" in other polls. The proportion of Labour voters who think Labour was to blame is down to 4%, giving limited scope for a "aargh, don't let them wreck it again" campaign.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5o04zg8i2m/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-251113.pdf
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Morning all and the premis of this thread is as daft as suggesting the good Labour voters of Southampton Test will rush to vote UKIP to keep the Tories out.
It is sad to see the lovely, slightly nutty Laura Sandys stand down but provided the local Tory association select a good candidate, Farage hasn't a hope. If Tory HQ has any sense it will use the seat for another Open Primary selection of the Tory candidate.0 -
Of course. Is not the entire concept of "tactical voting" intrinsically tied up with First Past the Post voting systems? Or do you get tactical voting in PR systems too? Must be to a far smaller extent in that case.Alanbrooke said:
Presumably you mean under FPTP electionsStuart_Dickson said:
They do in Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:Aren't we told that Con voters do not vote tactically?
tim said:Labour are the value bet here if Farage stands.
They'll poll 40%, The Tories were on 48% last time.
When the Tory candidates regularly end up in 4th or poor 3rd places, Tory-inclined voters display keen tactical voting behaviour.
This is all the more painful for the Scottish Tory leadership because their vote is spread so thinly and evenly throughout the country, so you can pretty much count on one hand the seats where Tory voters *don't* vote tactically.
Found this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_voting#Tactical_voting_in_particular_systems0 -
Mr. Stopper, thou villainous, unchin-snouted flax-wench!0
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My wet dream is that Jeremy Clarkson sticks his head above the parapet during the IndyRef. He must be worth several tens of thousands of votes for the Yes campaign.Scrapheap_as_was said:On Thread = paging Andrew Strauss.... or Jeremy Clarkson....
or Boris... or wee Jimmy Krankie.0 -
And what would you be saying if no-one from the government had met the Co-op, when they wanted to bid for a part of Lloyds during a forced sale?tim said:@Josias
Beware a Baronet trying to be clever
@iankatz1000: This am Osborne sd not true Mark Hoban met Rev Flowers 30 times. Tonight Vince Cable sys there were "around that number" of meetings w Co Op
Are you saying the deal (whoever it was with) was of no interest to the government?
As with Plebgate, you are doing a "look, squirrel!" act to divert attention away from the real story.0 -
The real reason for Tim's nearly 14,000 posts
Now well less than a 5-times-a-month man.
"The study's authors say modern life may be having an impact on libidos.
"But we also think modern technologies are behind the trend too. People have tablets and smartphones and they are taking them into the bedroom, using Twitter and Facebook, answering emails."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25094142
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By saying what ?Stuart_Dickson said:
My wet dream is that Jeremy Clarkson sticks his head above the parapet during the IndyRef. He must be worth several tens of thousands of votes for the Yes campaign.Scrapheap_as_was said:On Thread = paging Andrew Strauss.... or Jeremy Clarkson....
or Boris... or wee Jimmy Krankie.
I can remember Clarkson contrasting the achievements of Scottish inventors with the mistakes of Scottish vegetable cooking.
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Off-topic:
An interesting (for me) but not wholly surprising story: Bletchley Park tried to recruit Tolkien during WWII.
How different would Middle Earth have been if he had joined?
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/25/tolkien_biopic/0 -
Mr. Dickson, I fear you're in need of a greater imagination when it comes to sordid thoughts.0
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I am not entirely sure I agree with the contention by OGH that Laura Sandys standing down is good for Farage.
As things stood, if he chose Thanet South then he would have an avowed pro EU opponent in a seat which has clearly shown itself at the recent local elections to be favourable towards UKIP.
His big concern now must be that the local Tories pick a vocally Eurosceptic candidate who will do much to suck away any potential vote from Farage.
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To win, Farage would not just need tactical votes, but to truly annihilate the Conservative vote.
So I'm chalking this one up as a Lab gain.0 -
Good point.Richard_Tyndall said:I am not entirely sure I agree with the contention by OGH that Laura Sandys standing down is good for Farage.
As things stood, if he chose Thanet South then he would have an avowed pro EU opponent in a seat which has clearly shown itself at the recent local elections to be favourable towards UKIP.
His big concern now must be that the local Tories pick a vocally Eurosceptic candidate who will do much to suck away any potential vote from Farage.
I think that Mike Smithson is heavily overestimating the importance of 1st-time incumbency.
In Con/UKIP battlegrounds the Euro enthusiasm/skepticism of the Tory candidate (which can, as we know, vary tremendously) is a far more important factor than the supposed 1st-time incumbency factor.0 -
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Appalling story:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25098118
It's stadia. Not stadiums. Pah.0 -
The chances of them putting up a fruitcake must be close to a dead cert. The question is will it be a The EU Is Terrific Fruitcake or a The EU Is Crap Fruitcake?tim said:Richard_Tyndall said:I am not entirely sure I agree with the contention by OGH that Laura Sandys standing down is good for Farage.
As things stood, if he chose Thanet South then he would have an avowed pro EU opponent in a seat which has clearly shown itself at the recent local elections to be favourable towards UKIP.
His big concern now must be that the local Tories pick a vocally Eurosceptic candidate who will do much to suck away any potential vote from Farage.
I agree with that, but if they put up a fruitcake Tory they run the risk of pushing the 15% Lib Dem vote to Labour.
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Personally can't see ukip winning any seats at the next GE, just a lot of near misses.
Where would Paul Nuttall stand?0 -
norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?0 -
He and Diane James seem more likely winners of seats than Farage to me. I get the feeling Farages fame. would encourage the anti ukip vote almost as much as the pro. Could be wrongtim said:isam said:Personally can't see ukip winning any seats at the next GE, just a lot of near misses.
Where would Paul Nuttall stand?
Ribble by election if it happens?
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O/T
Interesting comment on the tele
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/twitter/10472986/Monty-Don-and-the-rise-of-the-Twitter-Quitter.html
This quote really sunk home for some of the behaviour on here. Be warned
"An increasing amount of research has been done on the subject of trolling, the term given to abuse posted on the internet – usually done under the perceived cover of anonymity (though nearly all is traceable) and to elicit a reaction. "
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LabourList is a silly sausage:
http://labourlist.org/2013/11/pay-day-loans-credit-where-credits-due/
"Sometimes in politics, you have to say “Credit where credit’s due”. And today on payday loans, that’s certainly the case."
Then, later:
"But the list of people who deserve credit today doesn’t include the Tories, despite their MPs endlessly parroting CCHQ lines on Twitter today about how they’re acting to help “hardworking people”. If they really cared about the impact of high street rip off merchants they wouldn’t have waited years to act."
3 years, as opposed to the 13 Labour were in power for?
Labour's an odd party. They want the responsibility for things they don't do because they're in opposition, and want to avoid it for things they did do (like plunge us into the worst recession in history).0 -
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Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
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If there is going to be a game changer during 2013, this is it.CarlottaVance said:IndyLaunch video - starts at 10:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=47q_wXhHRpE
Current best prices:
Yes 11/2 (BetVictor)
No 2/9 (Betfair)
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Yes has shortened from 6.2 to 5.2 in a week at Betfair. The only thing that has happened that could account for such a price move is the lead-up to the white paper.0
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Mr. Dickson, Rosberg's odds for pole in Brazil fell from 10 to 8 from pre-P3 to after the practice session, during which neither he nor Vettel set a competitive time. Price shifts can mean something's happening, but that isn't always the case.0
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He has been!
OGH has turned over another Tory- Harry could get 6-4 on this but tim, sorry OGH has got him accepting evens????
Harry Phibbs@harryph1h
The next General Election has already been calculated..and the Tories win! Will @MSmithsonPB hand over the £100 now? http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingOct13.pdf …
Reply
Retweet
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB49m
@harryph Very happy Harry to double up on our wager
I pay you £200 if CON wins most seats - you pay me £200 if they don't.
What say you?
Reply
Retweet
Harry Phibbs@harryph32m
@MSmithsonPB Done!
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The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/25/scotland-danger-snp-independence-labour
Just as well London Labour have been doing so well in all affairs Scottish, eh?
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I am eternally grateful to Paul Hutcheon of the Herald/Sunday Herald for breaking the initial Falkirk selection scandal. It was him who dug up the first witnesses.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/25/scotland-danger-snp-independence-labour
Just as well London Labour have been doing so well in all affairs Scottish, eh?
It is one of the few signs that there is life left in the once-mighty Scottish media industry. Only independence can save what little remains of it.
Falkirk has huge significance for Scottish politics. However, I doubt it will make one iota of difference in England.
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Voting for independence is a good way of guaranteeing Labour will not govern in rUk.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
If YES wins and March 2016 is the Indy date then there could well be another GE in May 2016 if a Lib Lab pact loses it's majority in Westminster.
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tim said:
Ganesh makes the intelligent point that the recession was the time for the Tories to push modernisation into housebuilding and consumer rights, but their hapless leadership blew it.
)
Zzz - housebuilding starts are the highest for over 5 years and rising.
That moment when facts swat away prejudice....
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Which is why the London Labour crowd's wittering on here about 'can't see the Falkirk effect in YouGov yet' is such a keeper.....TGOHF said:
Voting for independence is a good way of guaranteeing Labour will not govern in rUk.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
If YES wins and March 2016 is the Indy date then there could well be another GE in May 2016 if a Lib Lab pact loses it's majority in Westminster.
And the SNP's timetable on independence may be ambitious:
Alex Salmond's goal of setting up an independent Scotland in March 2016 could be hard to achieve because of the 2015 general election, UK cabinet sources believe.
Sources in the Westminster government and the anti-independence campaign said the UK government had no mandate to strike a deal with an independent Scotland, unless it won the general election in May 2015 after putting its proposals to voters in the rest of UK.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/24/alex-salmond-westminster-hurdles-independent-scotland-2015-general-election
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Funnily enough, Labour-inclined Scottish voters don't much care who governs the rUK. They care who governs Scotland. And they don't want the Conservatives doing it.TGOHF said:
Voting for independence is a good way of guaranteeing Labour will not govern in rUk.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
I am always perplexed by Unionists who argue that Scots should vote No in order to prevent England being governed by the Conservative Party. Why should Scots care? Surely it is up to England to elect whichever government it so chooses. As good neighbours we should be observers, not participants.
Followed to its logical conclusion you could argue that Switzerland ought to go into a Union with France in order to save the French from another mistake like Hollande. Let the French and English make their own goddam mistakes. Tis the only way they'll ever learn.
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If Scotland becomes independent that will make more than one iota of difference to England & English politics!Stuart_Dickson said:
Falkirk has huge significance for Scottish politics. However, I doubt it will make one iota of difference in England.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/25/scotland-danger-snp-independence-labour
Just as well London Labour have been doing so well in all affairs Scottish, eh?
Meanwhile, looks like the SNP are going after the soft Labour vote:
The SNP's central strategy is to target key electoral groups who are either the most likely to back independence or the largely reluctant but necessary to win over: the SNP has mastered this technique, using sophisticated data and surveys to identify specific demographics.
In the former category are leftwing, younger voters, small business owners and the urban working class. Women and young mothers, and pensioners fall in the latter.
Ministers have already promised to abolish the bedroom tax and there are reports they would abandon the universal credit welfare reform, too. Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, has promised action on a higher minimum wage and action on child care. Older voters were lured in September with promises of earlier retirement ages, and better-protected pensions.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/scottish-independence-blueprint
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Stuart_Dickson said:
Funnily enough, Labour-inclined Scottish voters don't much care who governs the rUK. They care who governs Scotland. And they don't want the Conservatives doing it.TGOHF said:
Voting for independence is a good way of guaranteeing Labour will not govern in rUk.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
I am always perplexed by Unionists who argue that Scots should vote No in order to prevent England being governed by the Conservative Party. Why should Scots care? Surely it is up to England to elect whichever government it so chooses. As good neighbours we should be observers, not participants.
Followed to its logical conclusion you could argue that Switzerland ought to go into a Union with France in order to save the French from another mistake like Hollande. Let the French and English make their own goddam mistakes. Tis the only way they'll ever learn.
I think the point is Stuart - as we have seen in Falkirk - that when London Labour says jump, SLab runs to fetch a tape measure.
Losing the Indy ref will be a bigger calamity for rUk Labour than losing the 2015 GE.
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It would be funny if it wasn't true.tim said:Here's a swing voter that the Kippers and Tories must appeal to.
"A man emerged naked from a storage cupboard of a Premier Inn with a fire extinguisher hose up his bottom. Joseph Small, 20, threw his clothes off and grabbed the appliance from the fourth floor of the budget Leicester Square hotel. He then rammed the hose between his buttocks and began touching himself, Westminster Magistrates' Court heard. Small also urinated on the carpet and a lift door before having to be escorted down to reception by a member of staff who wrapped him in a towel. He then hurled abuse at the Bangladeshi man, barking at him: 'This country has been taken over by Al-Qaeda - go back to Pakistan'.
"'He shouted at Mr Hassan: 'This country has been taken over by Al-Qaeda - go back to Pakistan”. 'The defendant then called a special constable 'Turkish' and his colleague 'Romanian', before referring to another officer as a 'paedo'. 'He then emphasised to one officer, who was English, that he was from Sheffield and an Englishman'. - See more at: http://courtnewsuk.co.uk/surreal/?id=80#sthash.pvYxHggt.dpuf"
The xenophobia says UKIP, but the fire extinguisher suggests traditional Tory, tough one to call.
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So why would it be in the interest of a Lab/LibD Westminster coalition to agree to March 2016 for independence? Surely their interest would be to string it out as long as possible.....TGOHF said:
If YES wins and March 2016 is the Indy date then there could well be another GE in May 2016 if a Lib Lab pact loses it's majority in Westminster.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
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Will it be up to Lab ? Result will be known in Sept 14 - 8 months for the Cons to insist it is as soon as possible including signing up for a date.CarlottaVance said:
So why would it be in the interest of a Lab/LibD Westminster coalition to agree to March 2016 for independence? Surely their interest would be to string it out as long as possible.....TGOHF said:
If YES wins and March 2016 is the Indy date then there could well be another GE in May 2016 if a Lib Lab pact loses it's majority in Westminster.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
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Johan Lamont and Anas Sarwar run to fetch a tape measure. But, thankfully, there are more souls within the SLab camp than those two numpties.TGOHF said:Stuart_Dickson said:
Funnily enough, Labour-inclined Scottish voters don't much care who governs the rUK. They care who governs Scotland. And they don't want the Conservatives doing it.TGOHF said:
Voting for independence is a good way of guaranteeing Labour will not govern in rUk.CarlottaVance said:
The pro-UK camp also fear that Labour-inclined voters in the former industrial heartland of the central belt may vote for independence as a way of guaranteeing the Tories will not govern Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ed getting involved in the IndyRef is another of my wet dreams.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 9m
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
I am always perplexed by Unionists who argue that Scots should vote No in order to prevent England being governed by the Conservative Party. Why should Scots care? Surely it is up to England to elect whichever government it so chooses. As good neighbours we should be observers, not participants.
Followed to its logical conclusion you could argue that Switzerland ought to go into a Union with France in order to save the French from another mistake like Hollande. Let the French and English make their own goddam mistakes. Tis the only way they'll ever learn.
I think the point is Stuart - as we have seen in Falkirk - that when London Labour says jump, SLab runs to fetch a tape measure.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1440631486156949&set=a.1432418130311618.1073741827.1432414140312017&type=1&theater0 -
Just getting the diet coke and popcorn ready for the BIG 10am launch. It doesn't matter if the Scottish Government is deluded in what is written in the White Paper. The question is whether enough of the Scottish electorate will just say "oh fcuk it, let's just get on with it" on 18th September next year and on the 20th Englandshire residents will waken up to realise that many Scots meant it when they proclaimed the end of UKplc as we know it.
The thought of the Labour hierarchy getting involved in the Better Together campaign will be like Christmas coming early for Eck. London Labour is as likely to upset and alienate decent proud Scots as London Tories. They just don't understand the Scots, regardless of political allegiance. We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is.0 -
Andrew Sparrow at the Indie event:
There are 200 journalists accredited to be here, including a fair smattering for reporters from non-UK news organisations. When I arrived at reception they had run out of passes saying "domestic media" and I was given one saying "international media". The lady behind the desk was a bit apologetic. "It's not a sign of things to come," she said as she gave me my pass. She was being polite, but she was not being particularly on message. I thought the whole point was that this was meant to be a sign of things to come.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/scottish-government-publishes-white-paper-on-independence-politics-live-blog#block-52945229e4b0fc237c3f03450 -
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What has amazed me over the last twenty years is just how few English politicians, of any stripe, have the faintest clue about the Scots psyche. They just don't "get" Scots. If they did then they wouldn't find themselves in the mess they're in.Easterross said:London Labour is as likely to upset and alienate decent proud Scots as London Tories. They just don't understand the Scots, regardless of political allegiance. We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is.
Saving the Union would have been easy-peasy lemon squeezy if they had made the right moves twenty years ago. But the moment has long gone.0 -
That's not fair on Miliband. He already has at least three policies, which is two more than the voters will be able to remember.Alanbrooke said:
"the wisdom of Farage"edmundintokyo said:One thing we're seeing here is the wisdom of Farage remaining vague about where he'll stand. If the Tories manage to recruit a candidate who will put up a good fight, he can just run somewhere else. Meanwhile the Tories won't know which of the various decrepid local Conservative associations they need to put resources into rebuilding.
that's about as elusive as the policies of Miliband. At some point they're all going to have to get off the fence.
But the two cases are similar. Opponents will mock and supporters will get a bit antsy that they're not making a decision, but strategically they're right to hold back and keep their opposition guessing for a bit.0 -
Mr. Dickson, whilst No shouldn't get complacent, neither should Yes.
That said, the devolution move of Blair et al. was just bloody stupid. Whether from a unionist or Labour party political perspective, it was bloody idiotic.
Of course, if you're a separatist it was rather lovely.0 -
Stuart like most rightie residents of rUk I am mildly against Indy for Scotland.Stuart_Dickson said:
What has amazed me over the last twenty years is just how few English politicians, of any stripe, have the faintest clue about the Scots psyche. They just don't "get" Scots. If they did then they wouldn't find themselves in the mess they're in.Easterross said:London Labour is as likely to upset and alienate decent proud Scots as London Tories. They just don't understand the Scots, regardless of political allegiance. We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is.
Saving the Union would have been easy-peasy lemon squeezy if they had made the right moves twenty years ago. But the moment has long gone.
However - if YES wins I will be for it and as soon as possible.
41 less Labour MPs
11 less LD MPs
6 less SNP MPs
Worst case is 1 year of Lib/Lab before they are turfed out.0 -
Nat's using the "fairer" word.
Empty your bank accounts - move that cash south before they grab it.
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They still have to get off the fence. And crap policies are crap policies whether they're floated 12 months out or 6 months out, the difference being at 12 months you have more time to recognise it and correct it.edmundintokyo said:
That's not fair on Miliband. He already has at least three policies, which is two more than the voters will be able to remember.Alanbrooke said:
"the wisdom of Farage"edmundintokyo said:One thing we're seeing here is the wisdom of Farage remaining vague about where he'll stand. If the Tories manage to recruit a candidate who will put up a good fight, he can just run somewhere else. Meanwhile the Tories won't know which of the various decrepid local Conservative associations they need to put resources into rebuilding.
that's about as elusive as the policies of Miliband. At some point they're all going to have to get off the fence.
But the two cases are similar. Opponents will mock and supporters will get a bit antsy that they're not making a decision, but strategically they're right to hold back and keep their opposition guessing for a bit.0 -
Judging by the few they've floated so far the voters seem to quite like Labour's crap policies, and it's the crappest ones they like the most.Alanbrooke said:
They still have to get off the fence. And crap policies are crap policies whether they're floated 12 months out or 6 months out, the difference being at 12 months you have more time to recognise it and correct it.0 -
At some point the Scots will figure out that, in an independent Scotland, the freebies they are bribing themselves with will come out of their own pocket rather than from Westminster. The SNP are clearly hoping they won't realise that before the 18th September 2014, and they could be right. If the result is Yes, I'd guess it would take maybe four to five years before the old prudent, hard-working, entrepreneurial Scottish tradition starts to revive and replace the statist, dependent mindset they seem to have talked themselves into in recent years. In the medium term, they should do very well.0
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"We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is."
So pretty much like people everywhere. And with knobs on if those doing the telling come from somewhere else - see the English and the EU, for example.0 -
hoping to keep the pond with the BoE the lender of last resort !!?
If not we won't pay our debts ?!!??
Playground stuff..
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Err these policies being what exactly ?edmundintokyo said:
Judging by the few they've floated so far the voters seem to quite like Labour's crap policies, and it's the crappest ones they like the most.Alanbrooke said:
They still have to get off the fence. And crap policies are crap policies whether they're floated 12 months out or 6 months out, the difference being at 12 months you have more time to recognise it and correct it.
To date what you're calling policy isn't. It's spinny gimmicks.0 -
Well, in the case of energy it's an actual, quite interesting policy that nobody's talking about, combined with a spinny gimmick. But they'll fight the election on gimmicks, as is traditional in the British political system.Alanbrooke said:
Err these policies being what exactly ?edmundintokyo said:
Judging by the few they've floated so far the voters seem to quite like Labour's crap policies, and it's the crappest ones they like the most.Alanbrooke said:
They still have to get off the fence. And crap policies are crap policies whether they're floated 12 months out or 6 months out, the difference being at 12 months you have more time to recognise it and correct it.
To date what you're calling policy isn't. It's spinny gimmicks.0 -
There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the UK acting as a lender of last resort for a foreign country over whose budget they have no control. Salmond must know that.SeanT said:So what if the UK government now says No, the BoE won't be the lender of last resort for Scotland.
What then?
Seems like a daft open goal to me, but I am 10,000 miles away.0
