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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting
She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement.
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GE2010 was a long time ago and a lot has happened since.
I am going for a Con hold in this seat with this majority, especially with the economy recovering at such a fast rate. If Farage had really wanted to make an impact here in this seat, he would have declared his interest long ago, and then he would have maintained a very high profile campaign to nail it.
There's a strong option for UKIP in Thanet South especially if their leader was the candidate.
Without Laura Sandys who achieved a swing far in excess of most Tories at GE2015 the party is going to struggle. This will be seen as a battle between UKIP and LAB. If the non-Lab vote is split then EdM's party could slip in.
If Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate in Thanet South, he will come 3rd or 4th.
Incidentally, I also think UKIP will come 3rd in the European elections next year with something like 18% to 23% nationally.
I'm reading "The Last Days of Hitler" by Hugh Trevor-Roper (1947) which I found at a Christmas Fair jumble sale. He uses the word "lugubrious" on page 170, and again on page 173.
It's a huge ask for UKIP to win in Thanet South. But the party will substantially increase its vote share. If this is mostly from Tories, Labour could sneak back in. However, a credible candidate with the right pitch could also take Labour votes. It will be tight.
And I would expect at least some Lab to UKIP switchers, and possibly some switchers from LD to Con to keep out UKIP.
Con hold with reduced majority, Labour pushed into third, is my forecast.
I cannot see UKIP winning any seats under FPTP, and Farage is a famously bad campaigner.
When the Tory candidates regularly end up in 4th or poor 3rd places, Tory-inclined voters display keen tactical voting behaviour.
This is all the more painful for the Scottish Tory leadership because their vote is spread so thinly and evenly throughout the country, so you can pretty much count on one hand the seats where Tory voters *don't* vote tactically.
or Boris... or wee Jimmy Krankie.
that's about as elusive as the policies of Miliband. At some point they're all going to have to get off the fence.
makes you wonder why Labour are following in the same path.
http://youtu.be/JMtaEASd2LI
Or not.
As for you, some work on understanding the New Homes Bonus (and there was I thinking that housing was your specialized subject), followed by an essay on Tax thresholds. Then you can play with your HS2 train set. Deal?
UKIP 36%
Con 29%
Lab 27%
Oth 7%
UKIP needs to emphasise that its the only party that can beat the 'other lot'.
The 'other lot' being the Conservatives in traditional Labour voting areas and Labour in traditional Conservative areas.
"I'll settle for the peerage: I haven't given up hope. Not yet."
They're not all there cracked up to be .... and of course you're second in the PB Peerage List behind the long awaited "Lord Matlock of Beaconsfield"
Dave, I really, really, really would be more than content with a Life Barony. If it's a matter of 'donations', I will readily increase my subscription to the Hersham Branch 200 Club to £30.
He does seem to hold a candle, albeit a rather modest one, for Farage. I'm sure it stems from the betting wing of the Ukip opportunities rather than their leaders penchant for garish overcoats or piss poor speculative East European immigration maths.
Labour, the party which for years complained about factory closures under Fatcha but did nothing while far more factories closed during its government.
Labour, the party which increased taxes on industry and gave the money to its banker mates.
Labour, hypocritical scum.
Just had a weird false start. Tried signing in to post something, but then had to sign in again.
Anyway, a court will hear today the unscrupulous ways of Leicestershire archaeologists and the dim-wittedness of Grayling in a decision that offends common sense. We'll see whether the judge possesses magisterial wisdom or is a bewigged buffoon:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25098783
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Keep the faith!
Speaker John Bercow 22,860
Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy John Stevens 10,331
UKIP Nigel Farage 8,410
I mean, with the greatest of respect, who the hell is John Stevens? A local worthy who is able to outpoll a party leader who had a chair with his name on it on QT and gave all those "hilarious" speeches in Brussels setting about Jonny Foreigner and the hapless Broon.
Suggesting that "the stage is surely set for Nigel Farage to become an MP" strikes me as one of the most hyperbolic thread leaders I can recall. Never going to happen. 3rd. Again.
In comparison your gazetted life barony as Lord Bournemouth is surely quibble free !!
http://order-order.com/2013/11/26/labours-lynton-is-behind-eds-cry-baby-strategy/
Of course, the smear accusations might stick if Labour and their supporters had no track record of worse behaviour.
And if Ed really wanted to improve things, he could start by apologising to Mitchell during PMQs. But we all know he doesn't have it in him.
(Cue Tim's whining)
Thinking about the way the government is
cutting spending to reduce the government's
deficit, do you think this is...
Good or bad for the economy?
41% said good and 40% bad, up noticeably from last week. I wonder when was the last time the response was net positive.
Clearly hasn't affected YouGov VI yet....but three polls showing Labour lead down to five (2 successive from Populus and last night's ComRes) seems to show the gap narrowing slightly again to 5-6, from 6-7. While Falkirk/Unite/Flowers/Coop are not important in themselves, they have all combined to put Ed on the defensive politically.
On topic - Farage has to P*ss or get off the pot....the longer he does 'will he, won't he?' the less serious he looks, and he's starting from a low base.....
Today's YG 40-32 topline was discussed last night. The secondaries are unexciting but seem to confirm a general view of the Coalition's cuts as necessary (57-27) but done unfairly (56-27). It's a similar split to the "doing well for the economy" and "doing well for living standards" in other polls. The proportion of Labour voters who think Labour was to blame is down to 4%, giving limited scope for a "aargh, don't let them wreck it again" campaign.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5o04zg8i2m/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-251113.pdf
It is sad to see the lovely, slightly nutty Laura Sandys stand down but provided the local Tory association select a good candidate, Farage hasn't a hope. If Tory HQ has any sense it will use the seat for another Open Primary selection of the Tory candidate.
Found this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_voting#Tactical_voting_in_particular_systems
Are you saying the deal (whoever it was with) was of no interest to the government?
As with Plebgate, you are doing a "look, squirrel!" act to divert attention away from the real story.
Now well less than a 5-times-a-month man.
"The study's authors say modern life may be having an impact on libidos.
"But we also think modern technologies are behind the trend too. People have tablets and smartphones and they are taking them into the bedroom, using Twitter and Facebook, answering emails."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25094142
I can remember Clarkson contrasting the achievements of Scottish inventors with the mistakes of Scottish vegetable cooking.
An interesting (for me) but not wholly surprising story: Bletchley Park tried to recruit Tolkien during WWII.
How different would Middle Earth have been if he had joined?
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/25/tolkien_biopic/
As things stood, if he chose Thanet South then he would have an avowed pro EU opponent in a seat which has clearly shown itself at the recent local elections to be favourable towards UKIP.
His big concern now must be that the local Tories pick a vocally Eurosceptic candidate who will do much to suck away any potential vote from Farage.
So I'm chalking this one up as a Lab gain.
I think that Mike Smithson is heavily overestimating the importance of 1st-time incumbency.
In Con/UKIP battlegrounds the Euro enthusiasm/skepticism of the Tory candidate (which can, as we know, vary tremendously) is a far more important factor than the supposed 1st-time incumbency factor.
"tim's" 8:32AM post has the chap clearly suffering from premature post ejaculation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25098118
It's stadia. Not stadiums. Pah.
Where would Paul Nuttall stand?
Labour stalwarts expected to play bigger part in @uk_together campaign as most undecideds in #indyref are X Labour voters #whitepaper
Ed to the rescue ?
Interesting comment on the tele
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/twitter/10472986/Monty-Don-and-the-rise-of-the-Twitter-Quitter.html
This quote really sunk home for some of the behaviour on here. Be warned
"An increasing amount of research has been done on the subject of trolling, the term given to abuse posted on the internet – usually done under the perceived cover of anonymity (though nearly all is traceable) and to elicit a reaction. "
http://labourlist.org/2013/11/pay-day-loans-credit-where-credits-due/
"Sometimes in politics, you have to say “Credit where credit’s due”. And today on payday loans, that’s certainly the case."
Then, later:
"But the list of people who deserve credit today doesn’t include the Tories, despite their MPs endlessly parroting CCHQ lines on Twitter today about how they’re acting to help “hardworking people”. If they really cared about the impact of high street rip off merchants they wouldn’t have waited years to act."
3 years, as opposed to the 13 Labour were in power for?
Labour's an odd party. They want the responsibility for things they don't do because they're in opposition, and want to avoid it for things they did do (like plunge us into the worst recession in history).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=47q_wXhHRpE
Everybody has known for a very long time that Labour-inclined voters are the key swing voters in the IndyRef. Polls have shown up to 40% of Labour voters are pro-independence.
So, no great revelation there by BBCNormanS.
Current best prices:
Yes 11/2 (BetVictor)
No 2/9 (Betfair)
OGH has turned over another Tory- Harry could get 6-4 on this but tim, sorry OGH has got him accepting evens????
Harry Phibbs@harryph1h
The next General Election has already been calculated..and the Tories win! Will @MSmithsonPB hand over the £100 now? http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingOct13.pdf …
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Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB49m
@harryph Very happy Harry to double up on our wager
I pay you £200 if CON wins most seats - you pay me £200 if they don't.
What say you?
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Harry Phibbs@harryph32m
@MSmithsonPB Done!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/25/scotland-danger-snp-independence-labour
Just as well London Labour have been doing so well in all affairs Scottish, eh?
It is one of the few signs that there is life left in the once-mighty Scottish media industry. Only independence can save what little remains of it.
Falkirk has huge significance for Scottish politics. However, I doubt it will make one iota of difference in England.
If YES wins and March 2016 is the Indy date then there could well be another GE in May 2016 if a Lib Lab pact loses it's majority in Westminster.
Zzz - housebuilding starts are the highest for over 5 years and rising.
That moment when facts swat away prejudice....
And the SNP's timetable on independence may be ambitious:
Alex Salmond's goal of setting up an independent Scotland in March 2016 could be hard to achieve because of the 2015 general election, UK cabinet sources believe.
Sources in the Westminster government and the anti-independence campaign said the UK government had no mandate to strike a deal with an independent Scotland, unless it won the general election in May 2015 after putting its proposals to voters in the rest of UK.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/24/alex-salmond-westminster-hurdles-independent-scotland-2015-general-election
I am always perplexed by Unionists who argue that Scots should vote No in order to prevent England being governed by the Conservative Party. Why should Scots care? Surely it is up to England to elect whichever government it so chooses. As good neighbours we should be observers, not participants.
Followed to its logical conclusion you could argue that Switzerland ought to go into a Union with France in order to save the French from another mistake like Hollande. Let the French and English make their own goddam mistakes. Tis the only way they'll ever learn.
Meanwhile, looks like the SNP are going after the soft Labour vote:
The SNP's central strategy is to target key electoral groups who are either the most likely to back independence or the largely reluctant but necessary to win over: the SNP has mastered this technique, using sophisticated data and surveys to identify specific demographics.
In the former category are leftwing, younger voters, small business owners and the urban working class. Women and young mothers, and pensioners fall in the latter.
Ministers have already promised to abolish the bedroom tax and there are reports they would abandon the universal credit welfare reform, too. Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, has promised action on a higher minimum wage and action on child care. Older voters were lured in September with promises of earlier retirement ages, and better-protected pensions.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/scottish-independence-blueprint
I think the point is Stuart - as we have seen in Falkirk - that when London Labour says jump, SLab runs to fetch a tape measure.
Losing the Indy ref will be a bigger calamity for rUk Labour than losing the 2015 GE.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1440631486156949&set=a.1432418130311618.1073741827.1432414140312017&type=1&theater
The thought of the Labour hierarchy getting involved in the Better Together campaign will be like Christmas coming early for Eck. London Labour is as likely to upset and alienate decent proud Scots as London Tories. They just don't understand the Scots, regardless of political allegiance. We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is.
There are 200 journalists accredited to be here, including a fair smattering for reporters from non-UK news organisations. When I arrived at reception they had run out of passes saying "domestic media" and I was given one saying "international media". The lady behind the desk was a bit apologetic. "It's not a sign of things to come," she said as she gave me my pass. She was being polite, but she was not being particularly on message. I thought the whole point was that this was meant to be a sign of things to come.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/scottish-government-publishes-white-paper-on-independence-politics-live-blog#block-52945229e4b0fc237c3f0345
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http://scotreferendum.com
Saving the Union would have been easy-peasy lemon squeezy if they had made the right moves twenty years ago. But the moment has long gone.
But the two cases are similar. Opponents will mock and supporters will get a bit antsy that they're not making a decision, but strategically they're right to hold back and keep their opposition guessing for a bit.
That said, the devolution move of Blair et al. was just bloody stupid. Whether from a unionist or Labour party political perspective, it was bloody idiotic.
Of course, if you're a separatist it was rather lovely.
However - if YES wins I will be for it and as soon as possible.
41 less Labour MPs
11 less LD MPs
6 less SNP MPs
Worst case is 1 year of Lib/Lab before they are turfed out.
Empty your bank accounts - move that cash south before they grab it.
So pretty much like people everywhere. And with knobs on if those doing the telling come from somewhere else - see the English and the EU, for example.
If not we won't pay our debts ?!!??
Playground stuff..
To date what you're calling policy isn't. It's spinny gimmicks.