politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is either bye bye Boris or bye bye Theresa, or bye bye both
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No, because it's not a cliff, it's a tsunami coming towards us, expected date of arrival 29 March 2019. Being immobile is not a good solution.YellowSubmarine said:
I'm happy to accept your steering wheel analogy instead of my child lock. The electorate disconnected the steering wheel to stop May driving off a cliff. Which as an aside is what Brexit is. Brexit is the end of Thelma and Louise. The genius of the Leave campaign I completely missed at the time was harnessing the power of suicide as self actualisation. Thelma and Louise drive of a cliff. Yet are empowered feminist heroes.
Now you can rightly argue the electorate is now stuck after disconnecting the steering wheel which is very irritating. But I'd rather be immobile than die like Thelma and Louise.0 -
That would destroy the Conservative party. Would Boris do that to become Prime Minister? Absolutely no doubt about it.HYUFD said:
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them beyond settlement rights for EU and UK citizens on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are omitting to notice the elephant in the room, which is that we've got a humongously difficult negotiation with an incredibly tight deadline to get through.HYUFD said:Given a general election choice of vote Boris and get millions for the NHS and no free movement or vote Corbyn and get millions for the EU and continued unlimited immigration I would suggest Jezza would end up hoist by his own populist petard, it would be hard not to laugh!
Though I accept with Labour then get someone more moderate like Chuka Umunna to then take over as leader after a Boris victory it would likely swiftly be downhill for BJ from there
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Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Where does May fit in this band of brothers?SouthamObserver said:
Osborne could be the only Tory who holds Boris in even more contempt than Davison.dixiedean said:Some thoughts. Not at all fully formed.
1 One thing is that we now know what is in May's Florence speech. Presumably, other Senior Ministers have seen it and (in general at least) approved it.
2 Which leaves Boris isolated (unless anyone else comes on board).
3 May cannot back down, but is too weak to sack him and have him on the back benches.
4 Where does Ms Davidson stand in all this? She has been busting her metaphorical balls to even get Scots to consider voting Tory. Boris puts the kaibosh on that.
5 Is a Boris/Osborne alliance on the cards? It would be powerful enough to see off May.0 -
I'd have thought Michael Gove's chances of the top job have just increased very markedly.0
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Tim Shipman: "If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a leadership challenge..."
It even waddles like one too!0 -
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
So he's being entirely consistent.
Philip_Thompson said:He didn't and he's still not saying it. Quite clear in black and white.
Make your mind up lads.Ishmael_Z said:In fact this leaves you a bit fecked, because you have sworn up and down that the figure was a lie, and now it turns out it might well not be.
Did he definitely not say it, or definitely say it?
I'll wait...0 -
She's just started agreeing with Osborne on this point at least. Do keep up.foxinsoxuk said:Where does May fit in this band of brothers?
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I just had the same thought, and yet at the same time it still seems implausible.AlastairMeeks said:I'd have thought Michael Gove's chances of the top job have just increased very markedly.
One thing this piece from Boris has proven to me is that he doesn't have the intellectual dexterity you attributed to him recently. He doesn't have what it takes.0 -
The wisdom of keeping the marginals campaign going over the summer (shortly in Broxtowe, I note) is vindicated.dixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
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Good God, I've just realised that it might end up in a situation where I would have to vote for DD as leader.
I think I need to go and lie down.0 -
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My instinct is that he has mistimed this - the party were content letting May get on with it, even the Brexiteers, and a large part of the party will not be impressed, including Ruth Davidson.AlastairMeeks said:There appears to be a change in the tent urination arrangements.
It's worth noting that Boris Johnson has shortened on Betfair for both next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader, but not that markedly. He clearly wants it but has he the Parliamentary base to get it? My instinct is no.
TM should just ignore him and deliver her speech in Florence and if he doesn't like it he can resign0 -
It would not if he wins a general election on itSouthamObserver said:
That would destroy the Conservative party. Would Boris do that to become Prime Minister? Absolutely no doubt about it.HYUFD said:
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them beyond settlement rights for EU and UK citizens on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are omitting to notice the elephant in the room, which is that we've got a humongously difficult negotiation with an incredibly tight deadline to get through.HYUFD said:Given a general election choice of vote Boris and get millions for the NHS and no free movement or vote Corbyn and get millions for the EU and continued unlimited immigration I would suggest Jezza would end up hoist by his own populist petard, it would be hard not to laugh!
Though I accept with Labour then get someone more moderate like Chuka Umunna to then take over as leader after a Boris victory it would likely swiftly be downhill for BJ from there0 -
JohnO and I had that realisation a few months ago.Richard_Nabavi said:Good God, I've just realised that it might end up in a situation where I would have to vote for DD as leader.
I think I need to go and lie down.
A few glasses of champagne were consumed to help John get through that.0 -
He's probably still got the campaign bras.Richard_Nabavi said:Good God, I've just realised that it might end up in a situation where I would have to vote for DD as leader.
I think I need to go and lie down.0 -
I think the chattering political class is overinterpreting Johnson's buffoonery.0
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There are three doors, behind the open door is a zombie PM. Do you switch doors?Scott_P said:Philip_Thompson said:So he's being entirely consistent.
Philip_Thompson said:He didn't and he's still not saying it. Quite clear in black and white.
Make your mind up lads.Ishmael_Z said:In fact this leaves you a bit fecked, because you have sworn up and down that the figure was a lie, and now it turns out it might well not be.
Did he definitely not say it, or definitely say it?
I'll wait...0 -
Live reaction from Downing Street
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Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?-1 -
Yep, it would. A no deal Brexit would be disastrous for the UK economy. Boris and the Tories would own it, and would not be forgiven. Waving flags and being horrible about foreigners might win an election, but you then have to deliver. No deal would make that impossible.HYUFD said:
It would not if he wins a general election on itSouthamObserver said:
That would destroy the Conservative party. Would Boris do that to become Prime Minister? Absolutely no doubt about it.HYUFD said:
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them beyond settlement rights for EU and UK citizens on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are omitting to notice the elephant in the room, which is that we've got a humongously difficult negotiation with an incredibly tight deadline to get through.HYUFD said:Given a general election choice of vote Boris and get millions for the NHS and no free movement or vote Corbyn and get millions for the EU and continued unlimited immigration I would suggest Jezza would end up hoist by his own populist petard, it would be hard not to laugh!
Though I accept with Labour then get someone more moderate like Chuka Umunna to then take over as leader after a Boris victory it would likely swiftly be downhill for BJ from there
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Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf
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Meanwhile the Sun's front page is more important. Pretty shameful timing by Boris Johnson, as TSE notes.0
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At least now we know why Tezza raised the threat level to critical...0
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What have we to lose? "Soft Brexit" was always a fantasy, especially given the EU's negotiating stance of punishment pour encourager les autres. A clean break and subsequent agreements on matters of mutual interest as independent entities is the way to proceed. We set no tariffs and no hard Irish border and leave the EU to make its own mind how to respond. Res non verba.
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Read Oliver Norgrove's tweets why that isn't permissible under the rules.geoffw said:What have we to lose? "Soft Brexit" was always a fantasy, especially given the EU's negotiating stance of punishment pour encourager les autres. A clean break and subsequent agreements on matters of mutual interest as independent entities is the way to proceed. We set no tariffs and no hard Irish border and leave the EU to make its own mind how to respond. Res non verba.
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@Richard_Nabavi I do completely understand the point you are making Richard - faced with the impending impact of Brexit Astroid it would be better to have a government that could do something rather than nothing - ergo a Conservative majority would have been better than a hung parliament. I also accept your tsunami point. We'd need a TARDIS not an immobilised car to avoid Brexit. The date approaches regardless.
However even then it's possible to argue, and I do, that immobilising our car is preferable to driving towards the Tsunami. Cameron was right to go immediately after the Leave vote. The Conservative Party was right to pick May as the last adult standing. But since the day she became PM all that goodwill has been squandered as good government has been skewed towards internal politics and careers post tsunami. I know we won't agree but I'm inclined to feel that if you are inflicting this level of damage on the country without a majority I don't want to know what you'd do with one.0 -
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If Brexit is the car crash that seems increasingly likely then the backlash could deliver him the job. The membership is pretty strong for Remain, even if leadership and voters are more equivocal.dixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
I have him in the Green, though my Labour leadership book is rather a mess.0 -
The idiots who run this country always tell us to carry on as normal after a terrorist attack. In which case they can hardly complain when one of their own does so.dr_spyn said:Fast yorker from the Edinburgh end.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/9088041186297118780 -
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf0 -
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Wriggle, wriggle, wriggle. I have never expressed an opinion one way or the other, and I don't particularly have one. I just thought it would be easy for you to link to any post which supports your claim. Dead wrong, obviously.Scott_P said:Philip_Thompson said:So he's being entirely consistent.
Philip_Thompson said:He didn't and he's still not saying it. Quite clear in black and white.
Make your mind up lads.Ishmael_Z said:In fact this leaves you a bit fecked, because you have sworn up and down that the figure was a lie, and now it turns out it might well not be.
Did he definitely not say it, or definitely say it?
I'll wait...0 -
Totally agree. Everything the Tories have done since 23rd June 2016 looks like it could have been specifically designed to ensure the worst possible Brexit for the UK. It's been a masterclass in relentless self-interest and incompetence. Boris's latest salvo is but the latest chapter in this grotesque story. And at some stage the Tories will pay a long and very painful price - deservedly so.YellowSubmarine said:@Richard_Nabavi I do completely understand the point you are making Richard - faced with the impending impact of Brexit Astroid it would be better to have a government that could do something rather than nothing - ergo a Conservative majority would have been better than a hung parliament. I also accept your tsunami point. We'd need a TARDIS not an immobilised car to avoid Brexit. The date approaches regardless.
However even then it's possible to argue, and I do, that immobilising our car is preferable to driving towards the Tsunami. Cameron was right to go immediately after the Leave vote. The Conservative Party was right to pick May as the last adult standing. But since the day she became PM all that goodwill has been squandered as good government has been skewed towards internal politics and careers post tsunami. I know we won't agree but I'm inclined to feel that if you are inflicting this level of damage on the country without a majority I don't want to know what you'd do with one.
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It is the only polling evidence we have of Boris popularity in Scotland and actually most of the subsamples for Scotland in the general election were not far off in showing the SNP down and the Tories up and even a late mini Labour revivalTheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf0 -
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Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Corbyn with Henry VIII powers for example. Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.SouthamObserver said:
Totally agree. Everything the Tories have done since 23rd June 2016 looks like it could have been specifically designed to ensure the worst possible Brexit for the UK. It's been a masterclass in relentless self-interest and incompetence. Boris's latest salvo is but the latest chapter in this grotesque story. And at some stage the Tories will pay a long and very painful price - deservedly so.YellowSubmarine said:@Richard_Nabavi I do completely understand the point you are making Richard - faced with the impending impact of Brexit Astroid it would be better to have a government that could do something rather than nothing - ergo a Conservative majority would have been better than a hung parliament. I also accept your tsunami point. We'd need a TARDIS not an immobilised car to avoid Brexit. The date approaches regardless.
However even then it's possible to argue, and I do, that immobilising our car is preferable to driving towards the Tsunami. Cameron was right to go immediately after the Leave vote. The Conservative Party was right to pick May as the last adult standing. But since the day she became PM all that goodwill has been squandered as good government has been skewed towards internal politics and careers post tsunami. I know we won't agree but I'm inclined to feel that if you are inflicting this level of damage on the country without a majority I don't want to know what you'd do with one.0 -
Parsons Green suspects identified ....and known.0
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My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
It is meaningless which such a high MOE.HYUFD said:
It is the only polling evidence we have of Boris popularity in Scotland and actually most of the subsamples for Scotland in the general election were not far off in showing the SNP down and the Tories up and even a late mini Labour revivalTheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf
You might as well ask a tramp outside the Hydro.0 -
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather than Remain, even he has said we do actually need to Leave even if he wants to still stay in the EEAfoxinsoxuk said:
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If Brexit is the car crash that seems increasingly likely then the backlash could deliver him the job. The membership is pretty strong for Remain, even if leadership and voters are more equivocal.dixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
I have him in the Green, though my Labour leadership book is rather a mess.
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The Tories won 29% last time so 32% under Boris is hardly that unrealistic in Scotland and the poll still showed the Tories staying in second place in Scotland under Johnson, just Labour would leapfrog the SNP to take first and the SNP would fall to thirdTheScreamingEagles said:
It is meaningless which such a high MOE.HYUFD said:
It is the only polling evidence we have of Boris popularity in Scotland and actually most of the subsamples for Scotland in the general election were not far off in showing the SNP down and the Tories up and even a late mini Labour revivalTheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf
You might as well ask a tramp outside the Hydro.
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Corbyn or Johnson? Blimey, what a choice! I simply detest Corbyn, but you are correct, we're buggered either way, and Corbyn could well be the least worse option!YellowSubmarine said:I'd assumed the Boris stuff was just a liberal Remainer fantasy. Is he really going to bring down another Conservative PM by relitigating the Referendum via Soft via Hard Brexit ? And if he succeeds is he really going to deliver a WTO Brexit and serve as PM for nearly 5 years on the basis of May's lost majority and subsequent DUP deal ? And if not are we really going to have another General Election in 2018 to deliver him a mandate for that ? And if we did how do know his poll numbers wouldn't be as ephemeral as May's ? And so on and so on. The Conservative Party is discovering that Brexit is like hard drive. You have to take escalating amounts of it to get the same high. Untill your body and mind collapse under the strain.
More likely he's playing to the gallery for a 2019 leadership election after May has carried the can for the inevitable Brexit climb down. But it's incredibly dangerous stuff which could get out of control.
I never, ever thought I would say it but thank God for the Corbyn surge. God alone knows what this shower would have been like with a majority. The prospect of 5years of the ghastly McDonell/Corbyn being less damaging than a Tory government should be absurd but it appears to be where we are. Buckle up.0 -
Jon Ashworth, or Jess Phillips.dixiedean said:
My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
Talks his book!0 -
Umunna went to Manchester University which I imagine he would market (ie the biggest northern university and not London or Oxbridge) and being an ethnic minority also gives him some added variety toodixiedean said:
My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
I think Boris has a pretty decent chance of pulling this off. Better than 10/1, which is the best odds for Boris as next PM.
Its going to go down very well with the base, which from a mathematical perspective is what matters. But his ideas are going to resonate much more widely than that; we are a joke and a laughing stock at the moment, Boris is offering hope.
I'd get the 10/1, because the odds will shorten tomorrow.0 -
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
I don't think that you have allowed for the chaotic Tory campaign, and a rather well oiled Corbyn one.HYUFD said:
The Tories won 29% last time so 32% under Boris is hardly that unrealistic in Scotland and the poll still showed the Tories staying in second place in Scotland under Johnson, just Labour would leapfrog the SNP to take first and the SNP would fall to thirdTheScreamingEagles said:
It is meaningless which such a high MOE.HYUFD said:
It is the only polling evidence we have of Boris popularity in Scotland and actually most of the subsamples for Scotland in the general election were not far off in showing the SNP down and the Tories up and even a late mini Labour revivalTheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf
You might as well ask a tramp outside the Hydro.
A safe Labour majority (if a 2018 election) is my call.0 -
Jess Phillips would be the only reason I could think of for breaking my Tory-voting virginity.foxinsoxuk said:
Jon Ashworth, or Jess Phillips.dixiedean said:
My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
Talks his book!0 -
Jess in the debates vs Boris would be fun.dixiedean said:
Jess Phillips would be the only reason I could think of for breaking my Tory-voting virginity.foxinsoxuk said:
Jon Ashworth, or Jess Phillips.dixiedean said:
My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
Talks his book!
Go girl!0 -
Boris knows that the Tory base wants a true believer. They will not want another lily livered Remainer turncoat.nielh said:I think Boris has a pretty decent chance of pulling this off. Better than 10/1, which is the best odds for Boris as next PM.
Its going to go down very well with the base, which from a mathematical perspective is what matters. But his ideas are going to resonate much more widely than that; we are a joke and a laughing stock at the moment, Boris is offering hope.
I'd get the 10/1, because the odds will shorten tomorrow.0 -
We have repeatedly heard claims that Momentum would either riot or quit following June. Instead they have kept on keeping on.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Well, you can't deny that Boris likes to roll the dice. Which I suppose is in keeping with the British electorate, given that we voted for Brexit and a hung Parliament...
Manchester should be very interesting indeed. Which other PB'ers are going?0 -
Jesus what a choice! Vince looking attractive all of a sudden.foxinsoxuk said:
Jess in the debates vs Boris would be fun.dixiedean said:
Jess Phillips would be the only reason I could think of for breaking my Tory-voting virginity.foxinsoxuk said:
Jon Ashworth, or Jess Phillips.dixiedean said:
My feeling is that Labour will need a non-Londoner next time. Particularly if facing Boris. However, there is a long way from here to there...HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
Talks his book!
Go girl!0 -
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
So Boris is planning to take back more money from the EU than we actually give them. If he can pull off that little miracle he will deserve to be PM.0
-
-
For example, while Toxic Tess was walking in the alps:dixiedean said:
We have repeatedly heard claims that Momentum would either riot or quit following June. Instead they have kept on keeping on.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/888062337349033985
Corbynite Labour has a perpetual campaign.0 -
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
0 -
As they will do until the next general election, if they lose that and Corbyn goes then their power goes with himdixiedean said:
We have repeatedly heard claims that Momentum would either riot or quit following June. Instead they have kept on keeping on.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.HYUFD said:
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather than Remain, even he has said we do actually need to Leave even if he wants to still stay in the EEAfoxinsoxuk said:
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If Brexit is the car crash that seems increasingly likely then the backlash could deliver him the job. The membership is pretty strong for Remain, even if leadership and voters are more equivocal.dixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
I have him in the Green, though my Labour leadership book is rather a mess.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions his chance of becoming leader is therefore zero. His ridiculous flounce out of the 2015 contest would also be used against him mercilessly.
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. The man is utterly despised in London these days and would perhaps halve the Tories seat count there. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.0 -
In Scotland at least maybe, certainly not in the UKfoxinsoxuk said:
I don't think that you have allowed for the chaotic Tory campaign, and a rather well oiled Corbyn one.HYUFD said:
The Tories won 29% last time so 32% under Boris is hardly that unrealistic in Scotland and the poll still showed the Tories staying in second place in Scotland under Johnson, just Labour would leapfrog the SNP to take first and the SNP would fall to thirdTheScreamingEagles said:
It is meaningless which such a high MOE.HYUFD said:
It is the only polling evidence we have of Boris popularity in Scotland and actually most of the subsamples for Scotland in the general election were not far off in showing the SNP down and the Tories up and even a late mini Labour revivalTheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a 'no you don't know' then.HYUFD said:
Scotland does not vote that differently from the rest of the UK normally (although a Scot will get a personal vote as Brown did in 2010), remember Blair won a majority of seats in Scotland in 2005 even after Iraq and Thatcher won sizeable numbers of Scottish seats in 1979 and 1983. The factor which has made it different is the rise of the SNP, especially in 2015 but as 2017 showed the SNP are now on the wane and there is no reason the next general election in Scotland should not be a largely Labour v Tory contest, especially with big hitters like Corbyn and Boris at the helm, Corbyn would sweep Glasgow and the central belt and the Tories rural Scotland and the SNP would get further squeezed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you post the MOE for that Scottish sub-sample please?HYUFD said:
Wrong actually, according to the July Survation a Boris led Tory Party would poll 32% in Scotland, even above the 29% they got in June, Labour would be on 36% and the SNP would fall to under 30%Alistair said:
Everything is good for yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WhyAlistair said:I can say, with little fear of contradiction, that this is good for Yes.
In this case Boris is about as popular north of the border as a Johnson slapped in your face.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoS-Brexit-Poll-Tables-16.07.2017.pdf
You might as well ask a tramp outside the Hydro.
A safe Labour majority (if a 2018 election) is my call.0 -
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
The cult would disappear as it is purely personal to Corbyn. But the hard left politics would be much harder to shift.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week0
-
The prevailing view amongst the labour party membership is that they would rather be in principled opposition, as they are on the side of the truth, and justice will eventually prevail.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
The next leader will be from the left. There is simply no support for another moderate candidate. It will never happen. Umana and Cooper are finished.
0 -
@SebastianEPayne: One Tory MP on Boris Johnson’s Brexit intervention in the Telegraph:
“This is the most extraordinarily selfish act I’ve seen...” 1/2
@SebastianEPayne: “...putting self before country at a moment when national unity is at the forefront of everyone’s minds.” 2/20 -
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as any
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their place
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with him
The cult would disappear as it is purely personal to Corbyn. But the hard left politics would be much harder to shift.
This is a caricature which refuses to die. In fact, Momentum are ordinary people with jobs and families and concerns like everyone else. They are treating Labour membership and campaigning as a way of meeting like-minded people, and having a day out and a laugh. Very much as political parties used to be. Of course the Far Left exists as it has always done. However, if there were 300 000 to 400000 "hard Left" activists in the country, don't you think there would be widespread riots, wildcat strikes and political assassinations?
Shouldn't the Tory response be to try to recruit more members?0 -
That is, most assuredly, NOT the prevailing view among any Labour members I know.nielh said:
The prevailing view amongst the labour party membership is that they would rather be in principled opposition, as they are on the side of the truth, and justice will eventually prevail.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
The next leader will be from the left. There is simply no support for another moderate candidate. It will never happen. Umana and Cooper are finished.0 -
Wrong on both counts.HHemmelig said:
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.HYUFD said:
Umunna has been more of Soft Brexitfoxinsoxuk said:
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.
In Umunna's own words
' It is why she should now be fighting for Britain to remain a member of the single market, albeit having left the European Union, in these Brexit negotiations.
The job of the Labour Party and others going forward must be to make clear that a better alternative strategy exists, and that EU withdrawal does not require us to sacrifice jobs and give up the best economic future for Britain.'
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chuka-umunna-leaving-single-market-not-option/
Far from being despised by Labour members, a poll of Labour members in March had Umunna just 1% behind McDonnell and Cooper to succeed Corbyn. It is members who have the final say, unions are irrelevant
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-joint-favourite-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-as-labour-leader-yougov-election-data-poll-shows-yveitte-cooper_uk_58bd744de4b05cf0f401d143
Given Corbyn could not even beat May and a bad Tory campaig I do not see how he is going to beat Boris, far more charismatic than the current PM and campaigning on a platform to pay millions to the EU at the expense of the NHS and with free movement continuing unchecked for years and with the Tories having scrapped the dementia tax.
Soubry is Remain anyway and would hold Broxtowe and the top Tory targets like Peterborough, Barrow etc are almost all Leave seats ie tailor made for Boris. After years of Brexit there may be a chance for Labour under a new leader to make the case for soft Brexit but in the short term Boris would win a snap election on a 'Brexit means Brexit' platform in my view
0 -
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.0
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Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this timeYellowSubmarine said:Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
0 -
I am today forecasting our next 2 PMs as Boris Johnson and then Chuka Umunna0
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Politics. Better than sex. (SeanT may disagree...)
1. Our "negotiations" with the EU for them to stop being beastly and give us whatever it is we want have ground to a halt, exposing the political reality that May's Bullshit Brexit is utterly unachievable
2. Which leaves walk without a deal and screw the consequences/Irish issue/expensive and shit new customs computed system the only option other than EFTA/EEA. May can't deliver that, which means
3. All or nothing tally-ho and a big fat British raspberry to Harry hun. Which means Boris. Cometh the hour cometh the Buffoon.
Yes he will destroy the Tory party. But by Move it will be glorious0 -
Wrong, see the poll posted belownielh said:
The prevailing view amongst the labour party membership is that they would rather be in principled opposition, as they are on the side of the truth, and justice will eventually prevail.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
The next leader will be from the left. There is simply no support for another moderate candidate. It will never happen. Umana and Cooper are finished.0 -
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local councildixiedean said:
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himPeterC said:
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.HYUFD said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their placePeterC said:
Why should a strongly leftist membership suddenly embrace a high priest of Blairism?HYUFD said:
If Corbynism is shown to have failed twice no reason Umunna, a reasonably telegenic centrist, should not have as good a chance as anydixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day, who actually have the votes in any election, and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?0 -
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence0 -
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movementBig_G_NorthWales said:
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence0 -
@iainmartin1: Hold on. Did Boris write this essay on his way to deal with the dreadful hurricane aftermath? Odd use of time if he did.0
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As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their place
Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with him
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local council
Mr HYUFD we will have to disagree once more. It'll all come out in the wash as they say. As for Ms Nandy, she has a much better chance of PM than leader of Wigan Council. A lass from Bury is far too exotic!
We will agree sometime, I promise.0 -
May has to lose a VoC before any of this is possible. There is no direct leadershipchallenge as such. Boris's supporters can write enough letters to precipitate a VoC, but I suspect MPs would see the danger ahead - Boris is an ultra-high risk candidate - and swing behind May. Boris is in danger of self-destructing.HYUFD said:
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this timeYellowSubmarine said:Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
0 -
The last election was also supposed to be a Brexit Means Brexit election but the public largely voted on other issues. Why would a repeat be any different? May's 42% vote share contained a fair number of Tory Remainers like me who voted for her through gritted teeth but won't be able to stomach voting for Boris. The Tories would wave seats like Cities of London/Westminster, Wimbledon and Richmond Park goodbye. Labour would hold the Barrows and Bolsovers, as last time, on an anti-austerity platform, and make sweeping gains from the SNP. Plus they will have an even more enormous ground advantage than in June.HYUFD said:
Wrong on both counts.HHemmelig said:
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.HYUFD said:
Umunna has been more of Soft Brexitfoxinsoxuk said:
Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. .
In Umunna's own words
' It is why she should now be fighting for Britain to remain a member of the single market, albeit having left the European Union, in these Brexit negotiations.
The job of the Labour Party and others going forward must be to make clear that a better alternative strategy exists, and that EU withdrawal does not require us to sacrifice jobs and give up the best economic future for Britain.'
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chuka-umunna-leaving-single-market-not-option/
Far from being despised by Labour members, a poll of Labour members in March had Umunna just 1% behind McDonnell to succeed Corbyn and tied with Cooper. It is members who have the final say, unions are irrelevant
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-joint-favourite-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-as-labour-leader-yougov-election-data-poll-shows-yveitte-cooper_uk_58bd744de4b05cf0f401d1430 -
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside tooHYUFD said:
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movementBig_G_NorthWales said:
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence0 -
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of thatBig_G_NorthWales said:
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside tooHYUFD said:
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movementBig_G_NorthWales said:
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence0 -
'Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.dixiedean said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their place
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with him
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local council
Mr HYUFD we will have to disagree once more. It'll all come out in the wash as they say. As for Ms Nandy, she has a much better chance of PM than leader of Wigan Council. A lass from Bury is far too exotic!
We will agree sometime, I promise.'
Boris is A List, Chuka is potential A List, Lisa N is D- list with a possible walk on part on Towie or Geordie Shore on a good day, nice lass though she no doubt is
0 -
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with himHYUFD said:
'Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.dixiedean said:
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their place
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local council
Mr HYUFD we will have to disagree once more. It'll all come out in the wash as they say. As for Ms Nandy, she has a much better chance of PM than leader of Wigan Council. A lass from Bury is far too exotic!
We will agree sometime, I promise.'
Boris is A List, Chuka is potential A List, Lisa N is D- list with a possible walk on part in Towie or Geordie Shore on a good day, nice lass though she no doubt is
Oh dear! You are usually very charming.0 -
I suspect he will still wait until 2019, he is just laying the foundations for his future bid that is allPeterC said:
May has to lose a VoC before any of this is possible. There is no direct leadershipchallenge as such. Boris's supporters can write enough letters to precipitate a VoC, but I suspect MPs would see the danger ahead - Boris is an ultra-high risk candidate - and swing behind May. Boris is in danger of self-destructing.HYUFD said:
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this timeYellowSubmarine said:Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
0 -
Boris's response should not be seen in strategy but in character. I have said this on this thread before, but the thing to remember about Boris is he bolts. Boris is a charming, reasonably intelligent and very spoilt man who has not been hit enough. Through his charm and smarts he attains a high position, then gets bored, engineers a fuckup to get himself fired (or, if that doesn't work, just resigns), then the cycle starts all over again. That is true whether it's his day jobs, his relationships, or his political career.Philip_Thompson said:Maybe he [Boris] actually believed what he said at the time and still does?
He's been Foreign Secretary for over a year now: in these etiolated times it's a well-paid sinecure requiring little but charm that he happens to be good at. What is he going to do in such a situation? He's going to deliberately fuck it up. Because that's what he always does.
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Funniest thing you've said in months.Scott_P said:At least now we know why Tezza raised the threat level to critical...
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If Boris and Gove could have stuck together last year, they could have saved us all a whole lot of bother.0
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He won London. Twice.HHemmelig said:
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.HYUFD said:
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather than Remain, even he has said we do actually need to Leave even if he wants to still stay in the EEAfoxinsoxuk said:
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If Brexit is the car crash that seems increasingly likely then the backlash could deliver him the job. The membership is pretty strong for Remain, even if leadership and voters are more equivocal.dixiedean said:
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...HYUFD said:
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins a majority, however small, Corbyn will likely be gone in 5 minutes and resign the day after polling day and Corbynism's current grip on the Labour Party most likely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunnadixiedean said:
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.HYUFD said:
Labour gets rid of Corbyn and elects Umunna on a pro single market platform and waits most likelyRichard_Nabavi said:
Great plan. It might even work.HYUFD said:Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Then what?
I have him in the Green, though my Labour leadership book is rather a mess.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions his chance of becoming leader is therefore zero. His ridiculous flounce out of the 2015 contest would also be used against him mercilessly.
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. The man is utterly despised in London these days and would perhaps halve the Tories seat count there. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.0 -
I know you think Boris will be next PM and that is possible but his move and timing this weekend may well have been a serious error.HYUFD said:
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of thatBig_G_NorthWales said:
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside tooHYUFD said:
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movementBig_G_NorthWales said:
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence
He was tied up in the Caribbean on a national disaster of epic scale and must have composed this during that time. Additionally it comes out on the day of another serious terrorist attack which TM has handled well and even raised the terror alert.
Also the party are content with TM at present and he may just have strengthened her position by his bad timing0 -
Boris has charisma, May did not, that is pivotal. Corbyn neutralised Brexit last time by promising to end free movement, this time he will not only be committing to keep it for years but pay millions to the EU at the expense of the NHS too (thus losing the advantage of the anti austerity platform of Labour and making the Barrows and Peterboroughs ripe fruit for Boris). The Tories will hold all the Remain seats you mention with the possible exception of Richmond Park, indeed the latest poll showed there are now slightly more Labour Leave backers than Tory Remainers.HHemmelig said:
The last election was also supposed to be a Brexit Means Brexit election but the public largely voted on other issues. Why would a repeat be any different? May's 42% vote share contained a fair number of Tory Remainers like me who voted for her through gritted teeth but won't be able to stomach voting for Boris. The Tories would wave seats like Cities of London/Westminster, Wimbledon and Richmond Park goodbye. Labour would hold the Barrows and Bolsovers, as last time, on an anti-austerity platform, and make sweeping gains from the SNP. Plus they will have an even more enormous ground advantage than in June.HYUFD said:
Wrong on both counts.HHemmelig said:
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.HYUFD said:
Umunna has been more of Soft Brexitfoxinsoxuk said:
Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. .
In Umunna's own words
' It is why she should now be fighting for Britain to remain a member of the single market, albeit having left the European
Boris also won London twice despite Labour's ground game because he had a pretty effective campaign himself
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I don't understand your level of belief in Chuka Umunna.HYUFD said:I am today forecasting our next 2 PMs as Boris Johnson and then Chuka Umunna
0 -
Anna Soubry been knocking it back again?Scott_P said:@SebastianEPayne: One Tory MP on Boris Johnson’s Brexit intervention in the Telegraph:
“This is the most extraordinarily selfish act I’ve seen...” 1/2
@SebastianEPayne: “...putting self before country at a moment when national unity is at the forefront of everyone’s minds.” 2/2
0 -
The incident today, although unfortunate, saw no fatalities and I expect this article had been ready in the Telegraph for days.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I know you think Boris will be next PM and that is possible but his move and timing this weekend may well have been a serious error.HYUFD said:
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of thatBig_G_NorthWales said:
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside tooHYUFD said:
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movementBig_G_NorthWales said:
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence
He was tied up in the Caribbean on a national disaster of epic scale and must have composed this during that time. Additionally it comes out on the day of another serious terrorist attack which TM has handled well and even raised the terror alert.
Also the party are content with TM at present and he may just have strengthened her position by his bad timing
Judging from a meeting of party members last night I can say members are fine with May for now but don't want her anywhere near the next general election campaign
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God love you Big_G, but that made me spray much cherry PepsiMax on the keyboard....Big_G_NorthWales said:TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.
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