Meanwhile in European capitals serious leaders reach over and push the snooze button on the negotiations because the British are *still* negotiating with themselves and it just got worse. Even f or when May unveils what she really wants the question is whether she will be strong enough to deliver it.
It's like an enormous game of KerPlunk. Most politican express a general desire to keep the Marbles up but keep rejecting specific straws and pulling them out. If this continues one day soon they'll be too few straws and the marbles will fall - an accidental chaotic WTO Brexit. And all the politicians and most voters will go " Oh we didn't want that ! We wanted the marbles in place. It was just these specific straws we wanted rid of. "
If we can't have the stats quo, can't have the Leave fantasy and we reject every viable messy compromise then what's left ? We either get Thelma and Louise Brexit via WTO/No Deal or a Suez Brexit via signing on the dotted line of a crap last minute deal when the economics catches up with the post imperial overstretch.
The only way to avoid this dilemma is for the internal dynamics of the Tory Party to allow a messy compromise which they show no sign of doing. To some extent every dramatic twist in Brexit merely shows how absolutely nothing has changed since the Referendum. We can only agree on what we don't want and are paralysed on what we do want. That this stasis has lasted now 25% of the time into the negotiation period is extraordinary.
As most of them would have gone home in a tantrum wailing at the ignorant voters for twice rejecting their Messiah, leaving more centrist members in their place
'Would they? I'm not so sure. Remember, electoral success is only a bonus for the hard left. It is not primarily what they are about.
If the Tories win next time Corbyn will resign the next day. Labour membership polls have shown McDonnell is far more beatable than Corbyn with Cooper and Umunna both capable of beating him but losing to Jezza. Once Corbyn goes Corbynism's grip on Labour goes with him
Suspect it will be somewhere between the 2. My money is on Lisa Nandy. She would be perfect v Boris.
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local council
Mr HYUFD we will have to disagree once more. It'll all come out in the wash as they say. As for Ms Nandy, she has a much better chance of PM than leader of Wigan Council. A lass from Bury is far too exotic! We will agree sometime, I promise.' Boris is A List, Chuka is potential A List, Lisa N is D- list with a possible walk on part in Towie or Geordie Shore on a good day, nice lass though she no doubt is
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If Brexit is the car crash that seems increasingly likely then the backlash could deliver him the job. The membership is pretty strong for Remain, even if leadership and voters are more equivocal.
I have him in the Green, though my Labour leadership book is rather a mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather than Remain, even he has said we do actually need to Leave even if he wants to still stay in the EEA
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions his chance of becoming leader is therefore zero. His ridiculous flounce out of the 2015 contest would also be used against him mercilessly.
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. The man is utterly despised in London these days and would perhaps halve the Tories seat count there. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
Yes, I think that's right. This is a marker, not a leadership bid. At least, not yet.
He's seen the speech and doesn't agree with everything in it, so wants to go on the record with what he does think (or at least want he wants to say) rather than be obliged to defend it verbatim.
That way, when May goes (which will very likely be in 2019) she can draw the political sting, and he can take hold of the purse strings to re-pledge extra money for the NHS whenever "May's" deal expires, problems which he can hang round her neck until then.
What I'd be looking for in the next few days is this: allies.
@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movement
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside too
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of that
I know you think Boris will be next PM and that is possible but his move and timing this weekend may well have been a serious error.
He was tied up in the Caribbean on a national disaster of epic scale and must have composed this during that time. Additionally it comes out on the day of another serious terrorist attack which TM has handled well and even raised the terror alert.
Also the party are content with TM at present and he may just have strengthened her position by his bad timing
The incident today, although unfortunate, saw no fatalities and I expect this article had been ready in the Telegraph for days.
Judging from a meeting of party members last night I can say members are fine with May for now but don't want her anywhere near the next general election campaign
Your last sentence is correct but the mood of the Nation today was concern about terrorist attacks and not the time to play politics
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.
God love you Big_G, but that made me spray much cherry PepsiMax on the keyboard....
Hope God does love me and pleased to lighten the mood
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Well I wouldn't expect you to vote for him but for all his faults and there are many, Boris has charisma in spades, high intelligence and populist appeal and that is what the Tories desperately need
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after another election? Reading back you clearly did. Then yes you are right, and I apologise for my somewhat peremptory response. Still can't see Umunna though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions his chance of becoming leader is therefore zero. His ridiculous flounce out of the 2015 contest would also be used against him mercilessly.
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. The man is utterly despised in London these days and would perhaps halve the Tories seat count there. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
Yet most polls have Boris comfortably the favourite of Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to succeed May, OK LD voters prefer anyone but Boris but the Tories can win without those
@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movement
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside too
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of that
I know you think Boris will be next PM and that is possible but his move and timing this weekend may well have been a serious error.
He was tied up in the Caribbean on a national disaster of epic scale and must have composed this during that time. Additionally it comes out on the day of another serious terrorist attack which TM has handled well and even raised the terror alert.
Also the party are content with TM at present and he may just have strengthened her position by his bad timing
The incident today, although unfortunate, saw no fatalities and I expect this article had been ready in the Telegraph for days.
Judging from a meeting of party members last night I can say members are fine with May for now but don't want her anywhere near the next general election campaign
Your last sentence is correct but the mood of the Nation today was concern about terrorist attacks and not the time to play politics
I do think he has done himself no favours today
Technically the article comes out tomorrow not today and as I said if this incident had led to 5 or 10 deaths that would be different but nobody died today, so the attempted attack was in fact a failure for the terrorists in that sense luckily
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Well I wouldn't expect you to vote for him but for all his faults and there are many, Boris has charisma in spades, high intelligence and populist appeal and that is what the Tories desperately need
No its not! They need someone serious. Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart, Amber Rudd, Hammond, infact anyone other than this clown...except fellow clowns Davis, Gove and Leadsom.
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after na though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. With no following amongst the membership or unions his chance of becoming leader is therefore zero. His ridiculous flounce out of the 2015 contest would also be used against him mercilessly.
Your view that Boris would cruise to victory in yet another snap GE is also very hard to take seriously. The man is utterly despised in London these days and would perhaps halve the Tories seat count there. Plus a few Remain Tory marginals like Broxtowe would also likely be lost. The next GE will very likely see a Labour victory which is why the Tories will hold out till the last possible moment before calling an election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
Yet most polls have Boris comfortably the favourite of Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to succeed May, OK LD voters prefer anyone but Boris but the Tories can win without those
Will he survive the scrutiny? He will have to run very hard to escape the charge of idle chancer. Remain Conservatives suffering what SeanT (of this parish) has identified as Brexychosis will need someone to pursuade them to return to the fold.
@GeorgeWParker: Boris supporters say that his Tel opus will help to "tee up" @theresa_may speech in Florence next week
TM has a joint meeting with Macron next week (think in New York) over terrorism and it is reported they are in discussion over an acceptable compromise on Brexit. Remember Macron has a liking for older women and they may well get on.
He speaks excellent English so their joint news conference should be very interesting
And then May goes to Florence
Unfortunately he also has to get past Juncker and Merkel too and given past statements from him I can't see him compromising on free movement
If France is onside, expect the low countries, Ireland, Italy and others to be onside too
There won't be any significant concession on free movement beyond a token one I think we can be certain of that
I know you think Boris will be next PM and that is possible but his move and timing this weekend may well have been a serious error.
He was tied up in the Caribbean on a national disaster of epic scale and must have composed this during that time. Additionally it comes out on the day of another serious terrorist attack which TM has handled well and even raised the terror alert.
Also the party are content with TM at present and he may just have strengthened her position by his bad timing
The incident today, although unfortunate, saw no fatalities and I expect this article had been ready in the Telegraph for days.
Judging from a meeting of party members last night I can say members are fine with May for now but don't want her anywhere near the next general election campaign
Your last sentence is correct but the mood of the Nation today was concern about terrorist attacks and not the time to play politics
I do think he has done himself no favours today
Technically the article comes out tomorrow not today and as I said if this incident had led to 5 or 10 deaths that would be different but nobody died today, so the attempted attack was in fact a failure for the terrorists in that sense luckily
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Well I wouldn't expect you to vote for him but for all his faults and there are many, Boris has charisma in spades, high intelligence and populist appeal and that is what the Tories desperately need
No its not! They need someone serious. Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart, Amber Rudd, Hammond, infact anyone other than this clown...except fellow clowns Davis, Gove and Leadsom.
In your view, yet as Survation showed in the poll I posted in the last thread Rudd and Hammond see the Tories do worse than Boris does and even you agree Boris is better than Davis, Gove and Leadsom
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after na though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
Yet most polls have Boris comfortably the favourite of Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to succeed May, OK LD voters prefer anyone but Boris but the Tories can win without those
Will he survive the scrutiny? He will have to run very hard to escape the charge of idle chancer. Remain Conservatives suffering what SeanT (of this parish) has identified as Brexychosis will need someone to pursuade them to return to the fold.
Diehard Remain Conservatives are heading the way of the Dodo if they have not already left for the LDs
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Well I wouldn't expect you to vote for him but for all his faults and there are many, Boris has charisma in spades, high intelligence and populist appeal and that is what the Tories desperately need
No its not! They need someone serious. Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart, Amber Rudd, Hammond, infact anyone other than this clown...except fellow clowns Davis, Gove and Leadsom.
In your view, yet as Survation showed in the poll I posted in the last thread Rudd and Hammond see the Tories do worse than Boris does and even you agree Boris is better than Davis, Gove and Leadsom
That's just name recognition. Boris is a flawed, ultra-high risk candidate. Alright he may prosper, but he is more likely to crash to earth.
The purpose of Terrorism is cause Terror. Fatalities are a means more than they are an end. Yesterday's attack ticks two Terror boxes. #1 Central London promoting the widest possible media coverage. Look for instance at the speed Trump has moved on it. #2 Novelty. Bombs on the Tube are Terrorist Retro.
Now certainly 30 deaths yesterday would have created more Terror than the thankfully Zero deaths there were. But not 30 times more. Largely because our Media/Politico/Security Theatre Complex are set up to magnify the Terror from Terror attacks not douse it.
The attack was early yesterday. Ample time for the Telegraph to reschedule what is clearly a preplanned launch of a campaign rather than a single article. Criticisms are most serious when they play into a pre-existing feeling and suspicion. I think Boris tampers are being too quick to dismiss the view that the timing of this Boris intervention is fairly lousy. But more importantly that lousy timing reinforces Boris'. Worst problem.
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after na though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
Yet most polls have Boris comfortably the favourite of Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to succeed May, OK LD voters prefer anyone but Boris but the Tories can win without those
Will he survive the scrutiny? He will have to run very hard to escape the charge of idle chancer. Remain Conservatives suffering what SeanT (of this parish) has identified as Brexychosis will need someone to pursuade them to return to the fold.
Diehard Remain Conservatives are heading the way of the Dodo if they have not already left for the LDs
These are the people who, among others put out by the appalling manifesto, cost the government its majority. Yes they are marginal, but with FPTP marginal voters are everything. You cannot just dismisss them like that.
Given that Remain won 70% plus in seats like Cities of London and Westminster it's a fair bet that the majority of Tory voters there voted Remain. Ditto Putney, Wimbledon, Richmond and the Barnet seats. Plenty of those wealthy Tory voters are also regularly overseas on business and can't have failed to notice that Johnson is an international laughing stock.
More generally, GE2017 highlighted above all else a big level of austerity fatigue amongst the electorate which can only bite the Tories harder and harder as time goes on. I don't see how they can prevent a Labour government at the next election under any leader.
Given that Remain won 70% plus in seats like Cities of London and Westminster it's a fair bet that the majority of Tory voters there voted Remain. Ditto Putney, Wimbledon, Richmond and the Barnet seats. Plenty of those wealthy Tory voters are also regularly overseas on business and can't have failed to notice that Johnson is an international laughing stock.
More generally, GE2017 highlighted above all else a big level of austerity fatigue amongst the electorate which can only bite the Tories harder and harder as time goes on. I don't see how they can prevent a Labour government at the next election under any leader.
Austerity fatigue? Did you see that Ashcroft poll earlier? Public is split 50/50 on more cuts/more taxes.
Boris can only appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two in the postal ballot. Tory MP's need to make sure he doesn't make it. If that means send the membership a choice of two Hard Brexiteers neither of which is Boris so be it. This is the future of the Sceptred Isle not a House of Cards episode. Tory MPs can ditch May before Brexit if they want but they don't need to make a Pound Shop Frank Underwood PM to do it. They select the final two for members to choose from carefully.
Boris had enough MPs last time to get through to the membership before he pulled out, he will do so again this time
Forgive me Mr HYUFD but your postings this evening re: Mr Johnson's meanderings seem to have got you even more excitable over the prospect of infinite Conservative victories than normal.
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr a .....
Well I wouldn't expect you to vote for him but for all his faults and there are many, Boris has charisma in spades, high intelligence and populist appeal and that is what the Tories desperately need
No its .
In your view, yet as Survation showed in the poll I posted in the last thread Rudd and Hammond see the Tories do worse than Boris does and even you agree Boris is better than Davis, Gove and Leadsom
That's just name recognition. Boris is a flawed, ultra-high risk candidate. Alright he may prosper, but he is more likely to crash to earth.
No it is not just name recognition, the fact that Remainers Hammond (the Chancellor) and Rudd (the Home Secretary) did best with LDs proves that and confirms he will likely be the next Tory leader
Then there is the fact that Ruth Davidson will clearly have Boris Johnson as PM over her dead body. I don't want to trouble OGH's lawyers with the nature of her animus towards him. Though I'd argue it's been carefully and deliberately hidden in plain sight since the Referendum TV debates.
The core questions remain the same. Are Boris' past Sins already known and thus in the price ? Or are there more still to come ? Come that is if he gets ideas above his station.
The purpose of Terrorism is cause Terror. Fatalities are a means more than they are an end. Yesterday's attack ticks two Terror boxes. #1 Central London promoting the widest possible media coverage. Look for instance at the speed Trump has moved on it. #2 Novelty. Bombs on the Tube are Terrorist Retro.
Now certainly 30 deaths yesterday would have created more Terror than the thankfully Zero deaths there were. But not 30 times more. Largely because our Media/Politico/Security Theatre Complex are set up to magnify the Terror from Terror attacks not douse it.
The attack was early yesterday. Ample time for the Telegraph to reschedule what is clearly a preplanned launch of a campaign rather than a single article. Criticisms are most serious when they play into a pre-existing feeling and suspicion. I think Boris tampers are being too quick to dismiss the view that the timing of this Boris intervention is fairly lousy. But more importantly that lousy timing reinforces Boris'. Worst problem.
That some folk think he's a charlatan.
You would have complained whenever this article was published and in any case it comes at the weekend before May sets out her own EU plans
Not if Boris takes over before the negotiations are completed and cancels them on the basis that he is not going to pay hundreds of millions to the EU and then calls and wins a snap general election
Great plan. It might even work.
Then what?
kely
Labour will not get rid of Corbyn. That is certain. They will not replace him with Umunna. That is more certain.
They won't before the general election and they won't if Corbyn wins the next general election. If Corbyn goes from the Messiah to two time general election loser though and Boris wins kely with him hence paving the way for someone like Umunna
Oh you meant after na though...
Umunna has been champion of Remain in the Labour party. If mess.
Umunna has been more the champion of Soft Brexit rather
Um, he voted against triggering Article 50.
Umunna is one of the few likely Labour leadership candidates who is even more hated by Labour MPs than Corbyn is. election.
He won London. Twice.
That, as they say, was then. The Tories have since suffered an alarming loss of support in the business/ southern/ middle class/ urban groups. Boris, with his confected hardline Brexit, is exactly the wrong person to remedy that.
Yet most polls have Boris comfortably the favourite of Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to succeed May, OK LD voters prefer anyone but Boris but the Tories can win without those
Will he survive the scrutiny? He will have to run very hard to escape the charge of idle chancer. Remain Conservatives suffering what SeanT (of this parish) has identified as Brexychosis will need someone to pursuade them to return to the fold.
Diehard Remain Conservatives are heading the way of the Dodo if they have not already left for the LDs
These are the people who, among others put out by the appalling manifesto, cost the government its majority. Yes they are marginal, but with FPTP marginal voters are everything. You cannot just dismisss them like that.
No they aren't, the Tories won just as many Labour Leavers as they lost Tory Remainers if not more, Tories who left for Labour mainly did so over the dementia tax not Brexit
Then there is the fact that Ruth Davidson will clearly have Boris Johnson as PM over her dead body. I don't want to trouble OGH's lawyers with the nature of her animus towards him. Though I'd argue it's been carefully and deliberately hidden in plain sight since the Referendum TV debates.
The core questions remain the same. Are Boris' past Sins already known and thus in the price ? Or are there more still to come ? Come that is if he gets ideas above his station.
Good point! And whereas once the public didn't mind his indiscretions, after a while as the list grows they will become a tiresome sideshow.
Given that Remain won 70% plus in seats like Cities of London and Westminster it's a fair bet that the majority of Tory voters there voted Remain. Ditto Putney, Wimbledon, Richmond and the Barnet seats. Plenty of those wealthy Tory voters are also regularly overseas on business and can't have failed to notice that Johnson is an international laughing stock.
More generally, GE2017 highlighted above all else a big level of austerity fatigue amongst the electorate which can only bite the Tories harder and harder as time goes on. I don't see how they can prevent a Labour government at the next election under any leader.
Don't see? This in a week when even under May Corbyn can basically no more than tie the Tories, with Tories already easing back on the public sector pay cap and of course double the number of Leave marginal seats than Remain it is absurd to suggest that the Tories cannot beat Corbyn who let us not forget still won almost 60 fewer seats than May
@David_Herdson Great tip David. The potential value is in which Hard Brexiteers will Tory MP's offer to the membership in order to assuage for having blocked Boris from the second round.
The purpose of Terrorism is cause Terror. Fatalities are a means more than they are an end. Yesterday's attack ticks two Terror boxes. #1 Central London promoting the widest possible media coverage. Look for instance at the speed Trump has moved on it. #2 Novelty. Bombs on the Tube are Terrorist Retro.
Now certainly 30 deaths yesterday would have created more Terror than the thankfully Zero deaths there were. But not 30 times more. Largely because our Media/Politico/Security Theatre Complex are set up to magnify the Terror from Terror attacks not douse it.
The attack was early yesterday. Ample time for the Telegraph to reschedule what is clearly a preplanned launch of a campaign rather than a single article. Criticisms are most serious when they play into a pre-existing feeling and suspicion. I think Boris tampers are being too quick to dismiss the view that the timing of this Boris intervention is fairly lousy. But more importantly that lousy timing reinforces Boris'. Worst problem.
That some folk think he's a charlatan.
You would have complained whenever this article was published and in any case it comes at the weekend before May sets out her own EU plans
No and ironically for an Old Etonian, it still smacks of absolutely no class!
The purpose of Terrorism is cause Terror. Fatalities are a means more than they are an end. Yesterday's attack ticks two Terror boxes. #1 Central London promoting the widest possible media coverage. Look for instance at the speed Trump has moved on it. #2 Novelty. Bombs on the Tube are Terrorist Retro.
Now certainly 30 deaths yesterday would have created more Terror than the thankfully Zero deaths there were. But not 30 times more. Largely because our Media/Politico/Security Theatre Complex are set up to magnify the Terror from Terror attacks not douse it.
The attack was early yesterday. Ample time for the Telegraph to reschedule what is clearly a preplanned launch of a campaign rather than a single article. Criticisms are most serious when they play into a pre-existing feeling and suspicion. I think Boris tampers are being too quick to dismiss the view that the timing of this Boris intervention is fairly lousy. But more importantly that lousy timing reinforces Boris'. Worst problem.
That some folk think he's a charlatan.
You would have complained whenever this article was published and in any case it comes at the weekend before May sets out her own EU plans
Some would say that the Foreign Secretary and the PM ought to be singing off the same hymn sheet.
@David_Herdson Great tip David. The potential value is in which Hard Brexiteers will Tory MP's offer to the membership in order to assuage for having blocked Boris from the second round.
They won't, they will want to keep their seats, it will almost certainly be Boris v Davis who go to the membership
Then there is the fact that Ruth Davidson will clearly have Boris Johnson as PM over her dead body. I don't want to trouble OGH's lawyers with the nature of her animus towards him. Though I'd argue it's been carefully and deliberately hidden in plain sight since the Referendum TV debates.
The core questions remain the same. Are Boris' past Sins already known and thus in the price ? Or are there more still to come ? Come that is if he gets ideas above his station.
Voters generally don't care about past 'sins' provided the politician in question has charisma and provided they are not serious criminal offences, see Clinton, see Berlusconi etc.
Ruth Davidson has clearly decided to focus on Scotland and that is where she will stay
I have just about enough remaining faith in the common sense of Tory MPs that they won't risk the membership electing a leader who will have an even lower international laughing stock standing than Trump. And even if Boris is elected leader there's the strong possibility of him losing his own seat.
@David_Herdson Great tip David. The potential value is in which Hard Brexiteers will Tory MP's offer to the membership in order to assuage for having blocked Boris from the second round.
They won't, they will want to keep their seats, it will almost certainly be Boris v Davis who go to the membership
That could be a closer call than you might think. Davis is very popular with the blue rinse brigade and swivel-eyed crackpots!
I have just about enough remaining faith in the common sense of Tory MPs that they won't risk the membership electing a leader who will have an even lower international laughing stock standing than Trump. And even if Boris is elected leader there's the strong possibility of him losing his own seat.
Labour would not only make us a laughing stock but a basket case too by putting up Corbyn so I have had quite enough lectures from you thankyou very much.
Indeed it is not impossible we will have PM Boris, President Trump and PM/Kingmaker Berlusconi in the next 2 years. If Boris wins he holds his seat, if he loses I doubt he cares if he loses his seat and will go back to making money
Then there is the fact that Ruth Davidson will clearly have Boris Johnson as PM over her dead body. I don't want to trouble OGH's lawyers with the nature of her animus towards him. Though I'd argue it's been carefully and deliberately hidden in plain sight since the Referendum TV debates.
The core questions remain the same. Are Boris' past Sins already known and thus in the price ? Or are there more still to come ? Come that is if he gets ideas above his station.
What did Amber Rudd say about Boris in the Brexit TV debate ? Not sharing taxis or something ?
In conclusion the scenario we are now discussing is May being brought down before March '19 in order to alter the direction of the Brexit settlement in a much ' harder ' direction. If that happens then value seekers should look at younger Tory MP's who were staunch Leavers but without the baggage of the Boris/Gove Era. Someone young and fresh enough who could front another early election campaign if it was needed. And it might well be.
We should also look at the ' Newtonian ' effect of all of this. Soft Brexiteers don't have the heft in the Conservative Party to mount a counter coup to shift Brexit in their direction. But they may well have the heft to prop up May for long enough to get to March. '19 if the only viable alternative is a Bird coup followed by God knows what. In short however confused May's Florence speech turns out to be it become the least worst option. And after the shock of June don't underestimate the scale of the Safety First vote.
For instance how would May's toppling and replacement with a new PM set on a dramatically harder Brexit than current for which there was no Commons majority *not* lead to another GE ?
For the whole point of this spasm is the messy compromise a hung parliament means won't do then what would be the point of the coup if there wasn't another General Election ?
Night Night everyone ! And pace yourselves. We still aren't even half way through this process.
@David_Herdson Great tip David. The potential value is in which Hard Brexiteers will Tory MP's offer to the membership in order to assuage for having blocked Boris from the second round.
They won't, they will want to keep their seats, it will almost certainly be Boris v Davis who go to the membership
That could be a closer call than you might think. Davis is very popular with the blue rinse brigade and swivel-eyed crackpots!
He won't be if he is seen as giving too much to the EU though I agree it would be close but Boris would likely win it
I am today forecasting our next 2 PMs as Boris Johnson and then Chuka Umunna
I don't understand your level of belief in Chuka Umunna.
I wouldn't vote for him but to me he looks by far and away the best option Labour have if they and we can ever be rid of Corbyn
Only for people who might even remotely happen to share your world view.
Well Labour has lost 3 general elections on the trot since Blair left so your world view is not exactly sweeping all before it is it either!
That is totally irrelevant and fails to contradict my point at all!
No it is totally relevant and reinforces my point entirely though it will probably take at least 1 more general election for leftwingers to get the message I agree. Goodnight
I am today forecasting our next 2 PMs as Boris Johnson and then Chuka Umunna
I don't understand your level of belief in Chuka Umunna.
I wouldn't vote for him but to me he looks by far and away the best option Labour have if they and we can ever be rid of Corbyn
Only for people who might even remotely happen to share your world view.
Well Labour has lost 3 general elections on the trot since Blair left so your world view is not exactly sweeping all before it is it either!
That is totally irrelevant and fails to contradict my point at all!
No it is totally relevant and reinforces my point entirely though it will probably take at least 1 more general election for leftwingers to get the message I agree. Goodnight
Your points as ever are invariably based on poll figures which you appear to take at face value and then proceed to repeat obsessively ad infinitum. Very rarely do you provide any evidence of real insight or sound judgement.
I have just about enough remaining faith in the common sense of Tory MPs that they won't risk the membership electing a leader who will have an even lower international laughing stock standing than Trump. And even if Boris is elected leader there's the strong possibility of him losing his own seat.
Labour would not only make us a laughing stock but a basket case too by putting up Corbyn so I have had quite enough lectures from you thankyou very much.
Indeed it is not impossible we will have PM Boris, President Trump and PM/Kingmaker Berlusconi in the next 2 years. If Boris wins he holds his seat, if he loses I doubt he cares if he loses his seat and will go back to making money
The big difference between all other possible CON leaders and TMay is that the incumbent is a proven loser.
These are the people who, among others put out by the appalling manifesto, cost the government its majority. Yes they are marginal, but with FPTP marginal voters are everything. You cannot just dismisss them like that.
It does say something about our appalling electoral system that a handful of "marginal voters" can decide that we have to suffer five years of this appalling government.
That wasn`t the point you were making, Mr C, but you make it very well.
This move by Boris seems so irrational I wonder whether he got wind of a TMay reshuffle where he was to be appointed Minister for floods or similar....
The BBC News juxtaposing ISIS and the terrorist bomb with a power grab by the foreign secretary isn't an attractive look
I have just about enough remaining faith in the common sense of Tory MPs that they won't risk the membership electing a leader who will have an even lower international laughing stock standing than Trump. And even if Boris is elected leader there's the strong possibility of him losing his own seat.
Labour would not only make us a laughing stock but a basket case too by putting up Corbyn so I have had quite enough lectures from you thankyou very much.
Indeed it is not impossible we will have PM Boris, President Trump and PM/Kingmaker Berlusconi in the next 2 years. If Boris wins he holds his seat, if he loses I doubt he cares if he loses his seat and will go back to making money
The big difference between all other possible CON leaders and TMay is that the incumbent is a proven loser.
They have all lost against May in the Leadership contest (or failed to come under starter's orders). Flouncer Davis has lost two such contests.
Perhaps all this is the result of trying too hard to be clever? "Flounce watch on Boris" was funny, but perhaps this is Boris saying OK, flounce watch this.
He's actually quite a sensitive guy with a sense of internal honour who doesn't like the accusation of lying.
So he goes down in flames fighting for £350m which means he tried but was beaten by the forces of evil
And become editor of the Telegraph...
Perhaps newspaper editorship will become the post-Parliament career of choice for failed Tory politicians? Cameron could edit the Times, May the Daily Mail?
I am today forecasting our next 2 PMs as Boris Johnson and then Chuka Umunna
I don't understand your level of belief in Chuka Umunna.
I wouldn't vote for him but to me he looks by far and away the best option Labour have if they and we can ever be rid of Corbyn
Only for people who might even remotely happen to share your world view.
Well Labour has lost 3 general elections on the trot since Blair left so your world view is not exactly sweeping all before it is it either!
That is totally irrelevant and fails to contradict my point at all!
No it is totally relevant and reinforces my point entirely though it will probably take at least 1 more general election for leftwingers to get the message I agree. Goodnight
Your points as ever are invariably based on poll figures which you appear to take at face value and then proceed to repeat obsessively ad infinitum. Very rarely do you provide any evidence of real insight or sound judgement.
As opposed to you who cannot take any fact without spinning it in a Labour direction
Comments
It's like an enormous game of KerPlunk. Most politican express a general desire to keep the Marbles up but keep rejecting specific straws and pulling them out. If this continues one day soon they'll be too few straws and the marbles will fall - an accidental chaotic WTO Brexit. And all the politicians and most voters will go " Oh we didn't want that ! We wanted the marbles in place. It was just these specific straws we wanted rid of. "
If we can't have the stats quo, can't have the Leave fantasy and we reject every viable messy compromise then what's left ? We either get Thelma and Louise Brexit via WTO/No Deal or a Suez Brexit via signing on the dotted line of a crap last minute deal when the economics catches up with the post imperial overstretch.
The only way to avoid this dilemma is for the internal dynamics of the Tory Party to allow a messy compromise which they show no sign of doing. To some extent every dramatic twist in Brexit merely shows how absolutely nothing has changed since the Referendum. We can only agree on what we don't want and are paralysed on what we do want. That this stasis has lasted now 25% of the time into the negotiation period is extraordinary.
Lisa Nandy would be lucky to be elected leader of her local council
Mr HYUFD we will have to disagree once more. It'll all come out in the wash as they say. As for Ms Nandy, she has a much better chance of PM than leader of Wigan Council. A lass from Bury is far too exotic!
We will agree sometime, I promise.'
Boris is A List, Chuka is potential A List, Lisa N is D- list with a possible walk on part in Towie or Geordie Shore on a good day, nice lass though she no doubt is
Oh dear! You are usually very charming.
Well I did at least say she was a 'nice lass'
He's seen the speech and doesn't agree with everything in it, so wants to go on the record with what he does think (or at least want he wants to say) rather than be obliged to defend it verbatim.
That way, when May goes (which will very likely be in 2019) she can draw the political sting, and he can take hold of the purse strings to re-pledge extra money for the NHS whenever "May's" deal expires, problems which he can hang round her neck until then.
What I'd be looking for in the next few days is this: allies.
Who signals they agree with Boris? Who doesn't?
Who says nothing at all?
I do think he has done himself no favours today
Do you not think that maybe, enough voters might conclude that over the last two years Mr Johnson's jolly japes and wizard wheezes have appeared more sinister, even to many in the Conservative Party, indeed to people who once would have celebrated his elevation to PM?
Under proper scrutiny will he stand up to it? Whereas once the alleged womanising, the Darius Guppy affair and other un-parliamentary activities were brushed off with a hearty laugh and a Latin quote, will that remain the case? The distance of travel between a lovable buffoon and an annoying t*@t may not be as great as you think.
The higher Mr Johnson's profile the less edifying the spectacle. He has been reported as being a lazy, disinterested Foreign Secretary by people in his own team, and this week when his two priorities should have been overcoming his pathetic response to disaster in the Caribbean and working out a strategy to deal with North Korea, he is making a bid to topple Mrs May. What a .....
Now certainly 30 deaths yesterday would have created more Terror than the thankfully Zero deaths there were. But not 30 times more. Largely because our Media/Politico/Security Theatre Complex are set up to magnify the Terror from Terror attacks not douse it.
The attack was early yesterday. Ample time for the Telegraph to reschedule what is clearly a preplanned launch of a campaign rather than a single article. Criticisms are most serious when they play into a pre-existing feeling and suspicion. I think Boris tampers are being too quick to dismiss the view that the timing of this Boris intervention is fairly lousy. But more importantly that lousy timing reinforces Boris'. Worst problem.
That some folk think he's a charlatan.
Given that Remain won 70% plus in seats like Cities of London and Westminster it's a fair bet that the majority of Tory voters there voted Remain. Ditto Putney, Wimbledon, Richmond and the Barnet seats. Plenty of those wealthy Tory voters are also regularly overseas on business and can't have failed to notice that Johnson is an international laughing stock.
More generally, GE2017 highlighted above all else a big level of austerity fatigue amongst the electorate which can only bite the Tories harder and harder as time goes on. I don't see how they can prevent a Labour government at the next election under any leader.
The core questions remain the same. Are Boris' past Sins already known and thus in the price ? Or are there more still to come ? Come that is if he gets ideas above his station.
Good point! And whereas once the public didn't mind his indiscretions, after a while as the list grows they will become a tiresome sideshow.
Ruth Davidson has clearly decided to focus on Scotland and that is where she will stay
I have just about enough remaining faith in the common sense of Tory MPs that they won't risk the membership electing a leader who will have an even lower international laughing stock standing than Trump. And even if Boris is elected leader there's the strong possibility of him losing his own seat.
Cobra in the morning had decided there was no need.
Indeed it is not impossible we will have PM Boris, President Trump and PM/Kingmaker Berlusconi in the next 2 years. If Boris wins he holds his seat, if he loses I doubt he cares if he loses his seat and will go back to making money
We should also look at the ' Newtonian ' effect of all of this. Soft Brexiteers don't have the heft in the Conservative Party to mount a counter coup to shift Brexit in their direction. But they may well have the heft to prop up May for long enough to get to March. '19 if the only viable alternative is a Bird coup followed by God knows what. In short however confused May's Florence speech turns out to be it become the least worst option. And after the shock of June don't underestimate the scale of the Safety First vote.
For instance how would May's toppling and replacement with a new PM set on a dramatically harder Brexit than current for which there was no Commons majority *not* lead to another GE ?
For the whole point of this spasm is the messy compromise a hung parliament means won't do then what would be the point of the coup if there wasn't another General Election ?
Night Night everyone ! And pace yourselves. We still aren't even half way through this process.
Boris will go down like a lead balloon in Scotland where the Tory surge is already on the slide.
You will have to do a lot better than Survation sub samples from July when the real thing from today shows the SNP 16 points clear!
Matthew Parris
With moderate voters uneasy about the excesses of left and right, the party’s undoctrinaire approach can win votes"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/this-is-the-moment-for-a-lib-dem-revival-dnpb6v6fj
That wasn`t the point you were making, Mr C, but you make it very well.
The BBC News juxtaposing ISIS and the terrorist bomb with a power grab by the foreign secretary isn't an attractive look
Perhaps all this is the result of trying too hard to be clever? "Flounce watch on Boris" was funny, but perhaps this is Boris saying OK, flounce watch this.
He's actually quite a sensitive guy with a sense of internal honour who doesn't like the accusation of lying.
So he goes down in flames fighting for £350m which means he tried but was beaten by the forces of evil
And become editor of the Telegraph...