politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017
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First.
And thanks, Harry.0 -
https://www.ft.com/content/a4b5a00a-9973-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b
This might amuse, or act as a cautionary tale on the perils of predictions about rising political stars.0 -
Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?0 -
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
No they need a new leader. And our old friend swing back who went entirely missing this year.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
fpt Trump/Twitter/PP;
At a brief glance, I'd guess the value is likely to be at the tails of the bell curve. Best bet is combining 0, 1-10 & 71 or more @ total odds of ~10/3.
Given that PP aren't interested in my business, I can't be arsed to check his twitter to do any more detailed analysis. So I could be wrong.0 -
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
Surely it should be honeymoon time for a newly-elected government?DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?0 -
Labour put on about 13% between the local elections in May and the General election a month later. When VI moves as quickly as that conventional wisdom about where parties ought to be in the polls at a given point in the parliamentary/economic cycle is pretty useless.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Labour's position is now far stronger than most people thought possible a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Tories sink ever deeper into the Brexit mire which will surely engulf them completely in the next couple of years.0 -
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
And of course the renationalization of a load of industries will be just as cheap...rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/908683293658361856
Anybody who really believes only the rich will see their taxes and cost of living rise under chairman corbyn is bonkers.0 -
But it is the British that want the border not the Irish or the EU. The Irish have every incentive to keep free trade and movement accross the ROI/NI border (a couple of main roads are essentially shared by the two countries).geoffw said:The soundest views on Brexit that I have heard from a politician recently were Jacob Rees-Mogg's in his interview with Nick Ferrari to which @Ishmael_Z posted a link yesterday. E.g. on the Irish border, to declare that the UK should seek no border whatsoever, leaving it to the EU to persuade Ireland to put a border in place.
But the home office wants everyone entering the UK to have to show a passport. These two stances are incompatible.0 -
She wants toRobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
There seem to be some obvious flaws with that approach.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
They may as well just select them by lottery.Sean_F said:
There seem to be some obvious flaws with that approach.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
Personally I have no problem with paying more taxes if public services improve correspondingly. (*)FrancisUrquhart said:
And of course the renationalization of a load of industries will be just as cheap...rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/908683293658361856
Anybody who really believes only the rich will see their taxes and cost of living rise under chairman corbyn is bonkers.
The problem is that I don't think that many of Corbyn's plans will 'improve' public services - and I don't think he is actually interested in really improving them. As New Labour found, throwing money at a problem does not necessarily lead to improvements.
(*) Then again, we're in a fortunate position - whilst we're not rich, neither are we JAMs.0 -
The most persecuted minority in this country is privately educated people who attended a good university.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.
I feel like an African-American in Jim Crow Alabama.0 -
I thought that was just to nip leadership speculation in the bud. The chances she'll lead the party into the next election must be quite small.TheScreamingEagles said:
She wants toRobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
Suspect bomber identified0
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But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
I'd love to hear a politician say that.TheScreamingEagles said:
The most persecuted minority in this country is privately educated people who attended a good university.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.
I feel like an African-American in Jim Crow Alabama.0 -
But there is a servicing of both of the debt and interest via the loan repayments, that's money which the government would then have to find.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
we'll be writing off student debt in any caserottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
Sounds like a good idea, at least in some areas of the organisation. If the BBC is to represent the nation, it needs to be representative. It is undeniably a lot posher than the nation as a whole.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
In actuality we'll be writing of the income from that debt being serviced. Don't think of the loan about in total, think of the cashflow.Alanbrooke said:
we'll be writing off student debt in any caserottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
Carlotta / Scott P2
"Massive boost for Sturgeon as Survation confirm SNP have staggeringly sizeable Scottish Parliament lead"
You can tell when the SNP have a huge poll lead. Carlotta resorts to Daisley (unionist hack Mail) to attack Sturgeon and Deerin (unionist hack ex Mail) to attack Salmond!
I would have thought with all the resources open to the Tory research department they could have dug up something more original!0 -
Certainly there would be some cost - I do not know the detailed numbers but if the average interest payable on the £60bn is 4% then the annual revenue would be £2.4bn which is less then 0.5% of government revenues. Not a great deal more than the bung to the DUP in fact.Slackbladder said:
But there is a servicing of both of the debt and interest via the loan repayments, that's money which the government would then have to find.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
So instead of being able to track that everyone comes from Oxbridge, they can just quietly mention it in the interview and no-one else is the wiser?FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
I'd like to understand the model behind the Scottish Parliament seat numbers off this latest opinion poll. The numbers it produces don't look right to me.0
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No one is going to like that big number. They will like the (perfectly accurate) explanation that "it won't need to be paid until the future" even less.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
Yes and no. I think that people feel politics is all about Brexit at the moment, and they're suspending judgment on that (sensibly given all the twists and turns). So they're defaulting to their positions immediately after the June GE. Neither the usual rule that new Government have a honeymoon nor the usual rule that struggling governments lose support apply.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Labour does need to widen the debate onto other issues, which is why Corbyn has mostly raised other things at PMQs, and I think people have noticed the public sector pay freeze and vaguely agree with Labour on that. But otherwise it's proving hard to change the subject, and will continue like that at least till the conferences.0 -
Somebody else in the polling industry thinks what Survation may have done is put the regional sub-sample splits in the seat projectors, which is a bit naughty.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to understand the model behind the Scottish Parliament seat numbers off this latest opinion poll. The numbers it produces don't look right to me.
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It's not the interest, it's the repayment cashflows.anothernick said:
Certainly there would be some cost - I do not know the detailed numbers but if the average interest payable on the £60bn is 4% then the annual revenue would be £2.4bn which is less then 0.5% of government revenues. Not a great deal more than the bung to the DUP in fact.Slackbladder said:
But there is a servicing of both of the debt and interest via the loan repayments, that's money which the government would then have to find.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
I do think of the cash flow which is why its blody stupid to continue with a system which is bust,Slackbladder said:
In actuality we'll be writing of the income from that debt being serviced. Don't think of the loan about in total, think of the cashflow.Alanbrooke said:
we'll be writing off student debt in any caserottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/908683293658361856
at this rate we will just kick the can down the road for 20 years and the generation which got stiffed with Osborne's folly will get stiffed again as they fund the write off
we need a retrospective tax of £10k on all people who had degrees prior to fees being introduced which will be trebled for Oxford PPEs0 -
How are they going to access the CV? Seems bonkers.Rhubarb said:
So instead of being able to track that everyone comes from Oxbridge, they can just quietly mention it in the interview and no-one else is the wiser?FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
I know that pb is full of pedants and language mavens, so I hope you've all read the story on the Beeb's website on useful 'lost' words from the English language.
Of the whole list, "ear-rent" ("the figurative cost to a person of listening to trivial or incessant talk") is the one that stands out as being most useful and relevant to the internet and social media world - or indeed the world of corporate meetings.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-412660000 -
I think the polls near dead on equal actually show how divisive Corbyn is. I'd suspect Labour should be doing better against such a crap government, but there also seems to be a sizeable anti-Corbyn coalition as well. Big positive is that May won't be fighting another General Election.RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
SNPs fall from grace is staggering0 -
A photocopy and a large black marker?Slackbladder said:
How are they going to access the CV? Seems bonkers.Rhubarb said:
So instead of being able to track that everyone comes from Oxbridge, they can just quietly mention it in the interview and no-one else is the wiser?FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of bonkers...
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.0 -
£11bn/year plus the annual repayment rate (which was 1.4bn in 2012-2013, predicted to rise to £2bn in 2016-17). Yeah, perfectly manageable.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/9086832936583618560 -
Think it will go all the way to 29th March 2019 unless TM makes a break through with the EU.NickPalmer said:
Yes and no. I think that people feel politics is all about Brexit at the moment, and they're suspending judgment on that (sensibly given all the twists and turns). So they're defaulting to their positions immediately after the June GE. Neither the usual rule that new Government have a honeymoon nor the usual rule that struggling governments lose support apply.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Labour does need to widen the debate onto other issues, which is why Corbyn has mostly raised other things at PMQs, and I think people have noticed the public sector pay freeze and vaguely agree with Labour on that. But otherwise it's proving hard to change the subject, and will continue like that at least till the conferences.
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I am not completely convinced one way or the other. There has to be a chance, however, that this is as good as it gets for Labour.NickPalmer said:
Yes and no. I think that people feel politics is all about Brexit at the moment, and they're suspending judgment on that (sensibly given all the twists and turns). So they're defaulting to their positions immediately after the June GE. Neither the usual rule that new Government have a honeymoon nor the usual rule that struggling governments lose support apply.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Labour does need to widen the debate onto other issues, which is why Corbyn has mostly raised other things at PMQs, and I think people have noticed the public sector pay freeze and vaguely agree with Labour on that. But otherwise it's proving hard to change the subject, and will continue like that at least till the conferences.0 -
That greatly depends on when the next election is. Can May make 'sufficient progress' without losing the DUP?RobD said:
I thought that was just to nip leadership speculation in the bud. The chances she'll lead the party into the next election must be quite small.TheScreamingEagles said:
She wants toRobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
F1: as predicted, by me, the performance of Red Bull might be the most interesting thing this weekend. Right now, they're looking rather quick.0 -
Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
36 dead this year, has been a big toll.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
And there was a terrorist attack in Paris today and that doesn't get more than a small mention on a couple of news outlets.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
I did think about doing a thread on it but wasn't sure what to say other than thank God no one died.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.
0 -
The whole point of the the loan system was to get the cashflow for fee payments out of the current accounts and on to the public balance sheet. The cash has already left the exchequer and most of it is not coming back. Writing off the debt is simply an accounting entry, it will not lead to any outflow of cash.Slackbladder said:
It's not the interest, it's the repayment cashflows.anothernick said:
Certainly there would be some cost - I do not know the detailed numbers but if the average interest payable on the £60bn is 4% then the annual revenue would be £2.4bn which is less then 0.5% of government revenues. Not a great deal more than the bung to the DUP in fact.Slackbladder said:
But there is a servicing of both of the debt and interest via the loan repayments, that's money which the government would then have to find.anothernick said:
But the bulk of the debt is going to be written off anyway - most estimates suggest that only about 40% or so will ever be repaid. If debt is written off as it becomes due the cost would be spread over many decades and the annual amount would be perfectly manageable.rottenborough said:
A new leader might be able to make something of this though:RobD said:
May isn't going to lead a campaign again though?TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/908683293658361856
Of course there will be some loss of cash from interest and loan repayments not being made in future but quite a bit - perhaps all - of this could be recouped by going back to the old grant funding system for universities and capping student numbers as was the case before the fee system came in.0 -
Its a worry, but I'd rather things were a bit more sober around these things anyway. Stay vigilant, but don't want to panic or change our lives drastically around itFrancisUrquhart said:
And there was a terrorist attack in Paris today and that doesn't get more than a small mention on a couple of news outlets.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
Can't see the DUP being too happy about a de facto united Ireland.eristdoof said:
But it is the British that want the border not the Irish or the EU. The Irish have every incentive to keep free trade and movement accross the ROI/NI border (a couple of main roads are essentially shared by the two countries).geoffw said:The soundest views on Brexit that I have heard from a politician recently were Jacob Rees-Mogg's in his interview with Nick Ferrari to which @Ishmael_Z posted a link yesterday. E.g. on the Irish border, to declare that the UK should seek no border whatsoever, leaving it to the EU to persuade Ireland to put a border in place.
But the home office wants everyone entering the UK to have to show a passport. These two stances are incompatible.0 -
On the border: no need to check passports at the border. Just establish a person's right to work when they apply for a job. Sure, some people will cross the border illegally, but they can do that now anyway.logical_song said:
Can't see the DUP being too happy about a de facto united Ireland.eristdoof said:
But it is the British that want the border not the Irish or the EU. The Irish have every incentive to keep free trade and movement accross the ROI/NI border (a couple of main roads are essentially shared by the two countries).geoffw said:The soundest views on Brexit that I have heard from a politician recently were Jacob Rees-Mogg's in his interview with Nick Ferrari to which @Ishmael_Z posted a link yesterday. E.g. on the Irish border, to declare that the UK should seek no border whatsoever, leaving it to the EU to persuade Ireland to put a border in place.
But the home office wants everyone entering the UK to have to show a passport. These two stances are incompatible.0 -
well, disabled people have pips, why not let students have the course money in their own hands and give the universities an incentive to compete on costs.0
-
The student does pick an institution at the moment, but they almost all charge the full amount. Not sure how that would change if you have the student the money directly. Suspect a lot would pocket it and runPAW said:well, disabled people have pips, why not let students have the course money in their own hands and give the universities an incentive to compete on costs.
0 -
Indeed. So much so that I feel no "terror" at today and just gratitude that the toll didn't increase today. It feels terrible to be relieved at a terror attack happening without fatalities when people are injured but that's the world we live in.Sean_F said:
36 dead this year, has been a big toll.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
Brexit means Brexit, not UKexit. They campaigned for it and that's what they'll get.logical_song said:
Can't see the DUP being too happy about a de facto united Ireland.eristdoof said:
But it is the British that want the border not the Irish or the EU. The Irish have every incentive to keep free trade and movement accross the ROI/NI border (a couple of main roads are essentially shared by the two countries).geoffw said:The soundest views on Brexit that I have heard from a politician recently were Jacob Rees-Mogg's in his interview with Nick Ferrari to which @Ishmael_Z posted a link yesterday. E.g. on the Irish border, to declare that the UK should seek no border whatsoever, leaving it to the EU to persuade Ireland to put a border in place.
But the home office wants everyone entering the UK to have to show a passport. These two stances are incompatible.0 -
In the 1970s a failed IRA bomb attack in Northern Ireland with no serious injuries would scarcely have merited a mention on the news. Certainly not the blanket coverage we get today.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.
0 -
Alastair Meeks
Here is the ABC of list voting and the Scottish Parliament.
It is pretty simple. With a 16 per cent lead the SNP would win the vast majority of FPP seats of the 72 up for grabs. Then on the list Labour comes into its own as do the Greens whose seats will all be on the list. On these figures the Tories would be lucky to take more than half a dozen FPP and get the rest on the list. The Liberals increase is all on the list and looks a bit dodgy in that they have never before outperformed on the list vote. It is fair to say that pollsters have never found it easy getting the list vote right.
For a mid term poll it is excellent news for the SNP - much better than Salmond polled in the run up to 2011 when he stormed to an overall majority on 45 per cent on the FPP vote. Admittedly he then fought a brilliant election campaign.0 -
It was much worse back then though, especially in NI.anothernick said:
In the 1970s a failed IRA bomb attack in Northern Ireland with no serious injuries would scarcely have merited a mention on the news. Certainly not the blanket coverage we get today.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/0 -
Slug-a-bed must still be relatively current, as Romeo & Juliet is on so many GCSE syllabuses...MTimT said:I know that pb is full of pedants and language mavens, so I hope you've all read the story on the Beeb's website on useful 'lost' words from the English language.
Of the whole list, "ear-rent" ("the figurative cost to a person of listening to trivial or incessant talk") is the one that stands out as being most useful and relevant to the internet and social media world - or indeed the world of corporate meetings.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-412660000 -
Does he have a transition plan?TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/0 -
http://www.scotlandvotes.comAlastairMeeks said:I'd like to understand the model behind the Scottish Parliament seat numbers off this latest opinion poll. The numbers it produces don't look right to me.
0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
F1: as predicted, by me, the performance of Red Bull might be the most interesting thing this weekend. Right now, they're looking rather quick.
Afternoon, Mr.D.
Are Ferrari really no faster than Mercedes here ?
While Merc are perhaps more competitive than forecast, I find that a little hard to believe (and Vettel had to abort his quick lap on the US tyres).
If Reds Bull were to go 1-2, Mercedes would probably be delighted.0 -
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/908647669995798528TheScreamingEagles said:
Somebody else in the polling industry thinks what Survation may have done is put the regional sub-sample splits in the seat projectors, which is a bit naughty.AlastairMeeks said:I'd like to understand the model behind the Scottish Parliament seat numbers off this latest opinion poll. The numbers it produces don't look right to me.
0 -
Mr. Eagles, is he transgender? I thought he was a transvestite...
Mr. B, the note I just made for the pre-qualifying article is that I think Vettel will be faster than Verstappen but perhaps not as fast as Ricciardo.
I would also be delighted with a Red Bull 1-2, as I've backed both each way for the win (Ricciardo layable at just under 4, but I'm not touching that just yet).0 -
Your coat, sirwilliamglenn said:
Does he have a transition plan?TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
0 -
Not really fair of pink news to write that article without referencing Nikki Sinclaire;TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire0 -
What is it with the right and firsts like these? Come on progressives, up your game!Pong said:
Not really fair of pink news to write that article without referencing Nikki Sinclaire;TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire 0 -
Was he ever funny?TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/0 -
He's a better actor than comedian.Sean_F said:
Was he ever funny?TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
He was great in Valkyrie.0 -
The first openly gay leader of a political party was Martin Webster, who led the National Front from 1980 to 1984.RobD said:
What is it with the right and firsts like these? Come on progressives, up your game!Pong said:
Not really fair of pink news to write that article without referencing Nikki Sinclaire;TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire0 -
During the Troubles Radio Four's first would be Radio Ulster's eight news item (something on inflation, say); the preceding seven would be of terrorist incidents across the Province.anothernick said:
In the 1970s a failed IRA bomb attack in Northern Ireland with no serious injuries would scarcely have merited a mention on the news. Certainly not the blanket coverage we get today.Philip_Thompson said:Says something about the world we live in, in 2017, that there can be a bomb attack in London and that isn't news enough to justify its own thread.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.0 -
Putting Labour to shameSean_F said:
The first openly gay leader of a political party was Martin Webster, who led the National Front from 1980 to 1984.RobD said:
What is it with the right and firsts like these? Come on progressives, up your game!Pong said:
Not really fair of pink news to write that article without referencing Nikki Sinclaire;TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire
0 -
How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9086666689136558080
-
A friend of mine is a Cabinet Member on Wandsworth Council who was in charge of the department where Martin Webster's boyfriend (now retired) worked.RobD said:
Putting Labour to shameSean_F said:
The first openly gay leader of a political party was Martin Webster, who led the National Front from 1980 to 1984.RobD said:
What is it with the right and firsts like these? Come on progressives, up your game!Pong said:
Not really fair of pink news to write that article without referencing Nikki Sinclaire;TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire
0 -
He was good in The Riches with Minnie DriverTheScreamingEagles said:
He's a better actor than comedian.Sean_F said:
Was he ever funny?TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
He was great in Valkyrie.0 -
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election0 -
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
Indeed. Some would say he gave up comedy years ago. He is an OK actor - saw him years ago in Showgirls (?) and he was so-so.TheScreamingEagles said:Eddie Izzard has said that he will give up comedy to run for Parliament – hoping to become the country’s first transgender MP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
That said, in his comedy heyday I saw him many times at ever-larger venues and remember sobbing with laughter and in danger of asphyxiation at his routines.0 -
Oh yes they do.HYUFD said:
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election
0 -
The Tories also put on 4% from the locals to the general, almost all the Labour gains came from the LDs who were down 11% in the general from the locals and Corbyn has already squeezed them about as far as he cananothernick said:
Labour put on about 13% between the local elections in May and the General election a month later. When VI moves as quickly as that conventional wisdom about where parties ought to be in the polls at a given point in the parliamentary/economic cycle is pretty useless.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Labour's position is now far stronger than most people thought possible a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Tories sink ever deeper into the Brexit mire which will surely engulf them completely in the next couple of years.0 -
Suddenly, it's absolutely pissing it down. Hope this ceases prior to the commencement of the evening perambulation with the hound.0
-
That's not a bad poll for the Conservatives.RobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
No they don't, for starters the pollsters were overcompensating for 2015 so the Tories never had a 20 point lead anyway and Corbyn will actually have to win Tory voters next time not just squeeze the LD, Green and SNP and UKIP votes as he mainly did last time. Clearly about 40%+ of the electorate would vote Tory to stop Corbyn even if a dead parrot was leading the ToriesTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh yes they do.HYUFD said:
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election0 -
Is it just me....if was to see a white bucket burst into flame on the tube, the last thing I would be doing was getting my mobile phone out and filming it.0
-
It makes it likely that a 2% - 2.5% is the most that HMG will offer to nurses, teachers, police, firefighters and the military with less for pen pushers paid for by a combination of small tax rises and some budget cutsSean_F said:
That's not a bad poll for the Conservatives.RobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
To pay for higher pay for nurses and the police yesRobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
You'd make a terrible war correspondantFrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me....if was to see a white bucket burst into flame on the tube, the last thing I would be doing was getting my mobile phone out and filming it.
0 -
Survation who called the election spot on say otherwise.HYUFD said:
No they don't, for starters the pollsters were overcompensating for 2015 so the Tories never had a 20 point lead anyway and Corbyn will actually have to win Tory voters next time not just squeeze the LD, Green and SNP and UKIP votes as he mainly did last time. Clearly about 40%+ of the electorate would vote Tory to stop Corbyn even if a dead parrot was leading the ToriesTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh yes they do.HYUFD said:
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election
But you know better than the pollster that called the election right.0 -
Welcome to the modern world.FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me....if was to see a white bucket burst into flame on the tube, the last thing I would be doing was getting my mobile phone out and filming it.
0 -
FPT
JosiasJessop said
'due process"? You're having a laugh. Due sodding process should have occurred decades ago when the alleged abuse was happening. Having it now is all well and good, but it doesn't account for the lives spoilt then and since.
In fact, time makes it harder to get any justice, as well as allowing more abuse to occur. It also means people who were abused got no help or closure.
And if you're asking me whether I believe these accusations about Smyllum, then yes, on the whole I do. There's too many voices speaking up about it, too much precedence proved in similar homes and institutions, and the hundreds of children buried in unmarked graves is a rather large pointer to the fact that things in the home were not exactly healthy. I might well be wrong in all this, and it will be interesting to see what the inquiry produces.
But taking the cases that have already been proved in the Catholic and protestant churches: the parallels with the abuse by Muslims in Rotherham, Rochdale et al is clear. In such cases, it was easier for the authorities (police, social services, the respective churches) to ignore abuse than to deal with it. As such, those authorities are as morally culpable for the abuse as the abuse'
I agree with that -and feel some empathy when recalling my own school experiences.
I attended a very strict Boys Grammar School from the mid 60s where there was great reliance on corporal punishment by the Headmaster - who held his position from 1958 to 1978. I was not a victim myself , but having consulted the Facebook pages of my old school I was very struck by the comments made there. 'He was a nasty man' , 'Feared but not respected' are but two examples, and several former pupils - now in the age range of early 50s to mid 70s - reported how they had been made to bleed and/or remained seriously bruised for 3 to 5 weeks following a beating. As someone who is partly legally trained, I suggested to them that they had not been punished - but physically abused. Even in the days when corporal punishment was lawful it had to be limited to 'reasonable chastisement', and it was clear to me that their experiences went well beyond that with the criminal offence of ABH under the Offences against the Person Act 1861 having been committed. Quite a heated exchange of views ensued on that public Facebook site - with some concurring with me whilst others sought to defend the Headmaster - who passed away in 2003. In the end, I suggested that those seeking to excuse the Headmaster were not so very different from those at the BBC who sought to cover up the actions of Jimmy Saville et al. As a result I was barred from the site - and this confirmed my suspicion that the local establishment is keen to keep such dirty linen very well hidden.0 -
In other news, twenty-year old murdered after many years of dedicated service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41207827
RIP.0 -
Indeed if the pound keeps rising as it has done this week (now 1.36 US and 1.14 Euro) it is possible that by the time of the pay awards in April 18 they may well be equal or more than the inflation rateBig_G_NorthWales said:
It makes it likely that a 2% - 2.5% is the most that HMG will offer to nurses, teachers, police, firefighters and the military with less for pen pushers paid for by a combination of small tax rises and some budget cutsSean_F said:
That's not a bad poll for the Conservatives.RobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
We've just rejected a 2% deal that was tied to us carrying on a trial of First Responding in place of NHS Ambulances. It's just been used as a stopgap so that Ambulance Trusts don't get fined for missing attendance times and it gives our SMT brownie points with the government. We dont have enough engines or fire fighters to do the job we're supposed to do, without playing at being an Ambulance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It makes it likely that a 2% - 2.5% is the most that HMG will offer to nurses, teachers, police, firefighters and the military with less for pen pushers paid for by a combination of small tax rises and some budget cutsSean_F said:
That's not a bad poll for the Conservatives.RobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
0 -
Unceremonious, but good practice to ensure it doesn't contaminate any of the icy moons with whatever extremophiles have hitched a ride on the probe.JosiasJessop said:In other news, twenty-year old murdered after many years of dedicated service.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41207827
RIP.0 -
Survation have UKIP on 4%, up 3% on the general election, cut them back to 1% and add them to the Tory total and you also get the Tories on 41% without the Tories winning a single Labour or LD switcher.TheScreamingEagles said:
Survation who called the election spot on say otherwise.HYUFD said:
No they don't, for starters the pollsters were overcompensating for 2015 so the Tories never had a 20 point lead anyway and Corbyn will actually have to win Tory voters next time not just squeeze the LD, Green and SNP and UKIP votes as he mainly did last time. Clearly about 40%+ of the electorate would vote Tory to stop Corbyn even if a dead parrot was leading the ToriesTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh yes they do.HYUFD said:
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election
But you know better than the pollster that called the election right.
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I very much doubt you would play at being an ambulance but it is a good point, but innovation is often the way to create efficienciesTwistedFireStopper said:
We've just rejected a 2% deal that was tied to us carrying on a trial of First Responding in place of NHS Ambulances. It's just been used as a stopgap so that Ambulance Trusts don't get fined for missing attendance times and it gives our SMT brownie points with the government. We dont have enough engines or fire fighters to do the job we're supposed to do, without playing at being an Ambulance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It makes it likely that a 2% - 2.5% is the most that HMG will offer to nurses, teachers, police, firefighters and the military with less for pen pushers paid for by a combination of small tax rises and some budget cutsSean_F said:
That's not a bad poll for the Conservatives.RobD said:
Surprised cuts are still reasonably popular.HYUFD said:How should public sector pay rises be paid for poll? https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/908666668913655808
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But UKIP actually polled 1.8% - not 1% - and that was in the context of contesting circa 350 seats. Had they fought every constituency they would surely have reached 3%.HYUFD said:
Survation have UKIP on 4%, up 3% on the general election, cut them back to 1% and add them to the Tory total and you also get the Tories on 41% without the Tories winning a single Labour or LD switcher.TheScreamingEagles said:
Survation who called the election spot on say otherwise.HYUFD said:
No they don't, for starters the pollsters were overcompensating for 2015 so the Tories never had a 20 point lead anyway and Corbyn will actually have to win Tory voters next time not just squeeze the LD, Green and SNP and UKIP votes as he mainly did last time. Clearly about 40%+ of the electorate would vote Tory to stop Corbyn even if a dead parrot was leading the ToriesTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh yes they do.HYUFD said:
No they don't, Cameron trailed in almost half the polls in 2015 as did Major in 1992 and both won majorities.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the Tories need a 25% poll lead going into the general election campaign.DavidL said:Not a lot of movement between the big two, is there? Consistent with the tied poll this week.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election
But you know better than the pollster that called the election right.0 -
Not sure that there is quite enough space for this headline on that latest opinion poll.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/9087127772457000960
