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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on what Trump will be impeached for
Paddy Power have a market up on if Trump were to be impeached, what that reason would be.
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Any example of Corbyn winning a vote since becoming leader? He polarises as well as being a poor politician. I can understand his wider appeal, but at the nuts and bolts he is hapless...
This is going to be an interesting conference season, and very different to what May wanted. A celebratory Labour conference, while blood on the floor and plotting in every corner at the Tory one.
In any event, not interested, especially as the plain impeachment odds are better value.
Still waiting for these examples of Corbyn and his team being good at winning parliamentary or technical party votes...
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Work-Begins-Soon-to-Bring-Haiti-into-Silk-Road-After-China-Invests-US30-billion-to-Develop-Infrastructure-20170901-0003.html
It doesn't stop them being more wishful thinking though
The "build it and they will come" mentality is not particularly healthy for the economy. But I'm sure it will win China a loyal ally close to America
Not a market to tempt me, to be honest. I suspect Trump will be there in 2020, but may not stand again.
The Tory one will resemble an Eastern Boc Soviet in the 1980's, rhetoric and stage managed but with everyone knowing the rotten state of things.
In any event, Haiti deserves a break - and I'm pretty sure the millions of Haitians whose risk of cholera will plummet won't see it quite the way you do.
The simple truth is that, as has been blindingly obvious from the start, leaving the EU without a deal in place will causes the UK substantial and immediate damage that will extend into the long-term. But by pandering to the Tory right instead of seeking a Brexit that works for the entire country Mrs May has boxed herself into a political corner which makes securing an outcome that avoids the cliff-edge almost impossibly difficult. Furthermore, her chief negotiator has spent much of his political life believing that Brussels is the "enemy" while failing absolutely to ever learn how the EU works or what drives FTA deal-making.
Brexit is going to happen, but since the referendum the Tories have done all they can to ensure it will be on the worst possible basis. For a party that is supposed to be patriotic and pro-business that is quite some achievement. Their only hope now is to somehow contrive a situation where all of this is perceived to be the EU's fault. That is clearly what is happening now. A blazing show of defiance, combined with an histrionic walk-out may well see the Tories get a polling bounce - but then what happens?
Europe is our biggest market, no-one will do a trade deal with us until our relationship with the EU is sorted out, if we leave without a deal we not only revert to WTO tariffs, but regulations covering hundreds of topics affecting our ability to export will cease to apply to us and, potentially, we become more vulnerable security-wise. All this when the Tories have promised voters that Brexit will lead to more prosperity and greater equality. What an unbelievable mess they have made.
If I was going to bet, which I wont, on this market, then I like tax evasion.
After all, this is how they got Al Capone iirc.
https://twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/907687683128004608
What you will send up is crumbling monolithic airports that are under-utilised (and probably used to dump inferior Chinese steel and concrete).
And Haiti will need to bear the running and maintenance costs.
It's more important to build what you need (including excess capacity) than to distort the economy
I have no interest in being told what I want to hear or, indeed, just being told what I don't want to hear. I want posters who provide real insight, and Richard provides that.
On Southam's post, the predictions seem to range from "modest immediate damage, perhaps worsening over time" to "disastrous damage". I think there will be a deal in the end and immediate disaster will be averted - the EU always works with crises and late-night haggling and breakdowns and delayed deadlines, but they get there is the end, and so will we, because we need to. But there's no reason to expect a particularly helpful deal.
The key point which I don't think has widely sunk in among the political class is that the Continental electorate - and therefore to some extent the politicians - don't actually care very much. Brexit barely featured in the French elections, and it's not featuring at all in the German ones. Everyone sees it as the Brits going off and doing something eccentric- they feel mildly regretful but ultimately hey, it's our business. Insofar as they're paying attention, they want a good payment to cover commitments and some sort of workable trading arrangement, and that will do.
The sensible Remain wing of politics, notably Hammond, is playing it long, trying to go for near-membership for the forseeable future: more Norway than Singapore. That's roughly where Labour will end up. What is still unclear is whether that line will win out on the Government side.
Did you actually read the article ?
The initial investment is around $5bn, and will provide power; water; sewage systems; drainage etc in the capital - i.e. basic infrastructure which any economy needs, and Haiti doesn't have - along with perhaps 20,000 jobs.
Haiti is an economic basket case which bears the legacy of the worst of colonialism and plantation slavery. It will be interesting to watch how this pans out.
https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/andy-burnham-brexit_uk_59b7fc47e4b09be41658755b?utm_hp_ref=uk
In life I've found that things are better than you fear and less good than you hope. You might find things less stressful if you adopt a similar philosophy
The electorate, whilst split very much on In/Out, would, I'd suggest, be generally very pro-economics and anti-politics from the EU. All the time the political class was throwing away vetoes, rebate money and reducing national influence in favour of EU ideology/integration it was moving further and further away from the electorate. The political class may not even have realised this, as the media [broadcast, certainly] and London are both far more pro-EU than the national average.
Of course, a few hedgies will do very nicely thanks.
@fatshez: Tim takes aim and blows both barrels straight at the messenger. https://twitter.com/montie/status/907861565273239559
@PolhomeEditor: It's not journalists' job to be patriotic.
@RupertMyers: It's laughable for politicians to question the patriotism of journalists, but for people who claim to be journalists to do it is inexcusable
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will call for non-eurozone countries to join the EU’s common currency in his State of the European Union address in Strasbourg Wednesday, according to an EU diplomat who briefed reporters on the speech beforehand.
@joncstone: Juncker announces the EU is opening trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand #SOTEU
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/907703497898053633?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
China would, however, be wise to conduct the programme with fairly close monitoring.
Edit: That's if we ever actually leave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8tz2jhRAC8
Mr. Jonathan, the tone of your post confuses me. Are you concerned that Fox will pop, or that he won't?
F1: looking at a few markets, to win, and to 'win' first practice. Focusing on Red Bull for both. I think they've gained performance over the season and the power deficit matters less at Singapore than any other remaining circuit. Ricciardo is 8 to win, Verstappen 8.5 (assuming his engine doesn't blow up), and Verstappen is 7 to 'win' FP1 (I'm more interested in the Dutchman than the Aussie for that market because last year Verstappen was ahead of Ricciardo across practice).
All are on an each way basis. That's top 2 for winning, top 3 for practice (1/3 and 1/5 odds respectively).
Decided to back those bets. Was a bit iffy about the practice one, more confident on the race win bets.
This is why wanting to restrict freedom of movement is toxic to any deal.
Do you have a response yet ?
For you,
O'er the hills and o'er the main
Through Flanders, Portugal and Spain.
Herr Juncker commands and we obey
Over the hills and far away.
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/907872740891402240
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/explore/winnie-the-pooh-quotes/?lp=true
The problem for me has never been the Euro but the Single Market. It is a pernicious mechanism which has enriched a few and caused immense social damage in many areas. Opening borders and markets has simply caused labour and capital to flow to the wealthier areas of Europe and impoverished the peripheries and other places.
For all that London, Bavaria, the Rhineland and other places have gained from migrant labour and the ability to expand service-driven economies, the social damage both in terms of the impact of migration on the places where the migrants have arrived and (much more importantly) the areas they have left has been considerable.
I wanted a European Union dedicated to the economic improvement of all of Europe including and especially the poorer peripheral areas yet all they have got is depopulation and economic devastation whether it's a Greek island or a Romanian or Bulgarian village or even parts of Ireland - the young have left, the businesses have closed and only the old remain. This was foreshadowed in the depopulation of the GDR after unification but we didn't see or want to see and, incidentally, makes the claims of those who assert they didn't realise the potential flow of economic migrants from Poland and other accessor countries lamentable.
I'm sure my vision of what the EU should be is a minority one and I'm not going with the economic flow - I don't care. Parts of Cornwall and Wales benefitted in the past from projects supported by EU Objective One funding and there remains considerable poverty in the rural and peripheral areas of Europe but that no longer seems to be the EU's focus and that's why I voted to Leave (among other reasons).
And if vWTO were the answer and we the Titanic, then the queues at Dover (and Holyhead, Hull, Dublin ports and indeed ports that primarily handle our non EU trade) would be merely the visible tip that we mistakenly call the iceberg in the early days.
They have, however become perhaps the most significant investor in Africa, if you exclude natural resources. Some of their investments won't pay; others will - but compared with the history of western aid, it looks like relative success.
And it's hard to see the US being able to beat them in either solar or mobile telecoms, for example.
If we want a trade deal then we might want to expand our High Commission in Canberra, rather than run it down through FCO cuts. I think that it has a UK diplomatic staff in single figures.
The woes of places like Cornwall and South Wales are largely down to domestic policy post war, not anything the EU did to us.
As yesterday's ORB poll showed 43% want immigration controls to be the Brexit priority and 43% free trade, an exact tie. You can have 1 or the other but not both