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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on what Trump will be impeached for

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,407
    edited September 2017
    Liberal Leaver Andrew Lilico has just retweeted an article in which he says this: "Corporal punishment is earthy, it connects us as a society to pain and blood..."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/10/on-judicial-cor.html
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460



    @Philip_Thompson

    Well don't forget we lent them billions at generous rates to help bail them out. We might not fancy being so accommodating now.

    I agree they'd be dumb but they are 1% of the set up (or will be) and there's no big nasty UK to hide behind whilst insisting we are all "communautaire" really, (fingers crossed behind back, whilst generously accepting another truck load of Euro dosh we can turn into the Cork to Galway motorway).

    I don't doubt Ireland's sincerity towards Europe, in all seriousness, and I'm sure they'd deeply prefer that 23.6.16 had never existed, but the fact is it's been a no brainer for them since 1973 not least because there have been pipelines of cash sprayed all over them at high pressure constantly, and because some of the things they wanted to protect (like tax) were easy to do if the UK was being conveniently awkward and they could profit from that. Fair enough, good for them.

    They are about to have the full fat, leaded, and caffeinated Europeanism, and they may well still like it. But there will be new downsides too and they will have to adapt.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,107
    Charles said:

    Pong said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just reported on WATO that DUP rumoured to be voting with Labour re tuition fees. Fascinating if true.

    That was quick!

    Did the DUP get the money up front?
    They only agreed to support on (I think) supply, confidence and Brexit.

    I'm intrigued that tuition fees are not deemed to be supply, but that may be a technical matter.
    Possibly it is because it is an opposition amendment, and therefore not binding? I am no specialist therefore merely speculating. A defeat would certainly be a political bind nonetheless.
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    From the director of the Bruegel thinktank:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/13/brexit-britain-eu-european

    If the UK wants to make a success of Brexit, then it needs to look at itself in a European mirror. For many in the EU, the UK is increasingly self-absorbed. And Brexit is too unimportant for the EU to be distracted from euro-area repair or the fight against tax avoidance by multinationals. There are still many Europeans, including myself, who really want to see a good compromise that establishes the UK as a privileged partner. But patience is running thin, and the prevailing narrative is becoming one where the UK must chose to be either fully “in” or a “third” country in the same basket as the US or even Russia. It is time for the UK to make up its mind about what it really wants from Brexit, and start building the trust and alliances it will need to get the EU’s full attention.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,639

    TOPPING said:


    Don't - you'll tip him over the edge again.

    I suspect that like Juncker you have succumbed to the sauce early today.
    I am as I type this looking at a bottle of Dodd's gin, one of a number of "garage" (hate to use the word artisan) London gins recommended to me. But very sadly, the bottle is unopened.
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    NEW THREAD

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    Mr. Currystar/Mr. CD13, indeed.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm confused by your position. You did say, pre-vote, that you believed we should leave, but 10 years down the line after another referendum. Why would that be easier?

    Depending on what May says in about a week (21st, I think) that *may* [ahem] open the door to another vote. I think it unlikely, but a plausible possibility.

    There's still a total failure to look at matters of integration and defending British cultural values (such as not raping people because they're white working class children or not looking the other way because the rapists are Pakistani Muslims) which is more critical, I would argue, to the migration debate than the actual numbers involved.

    We're certainly in the middle of interesting times. And they won't be ending for a while yet.

    Because Brexit is a process that cannot be squeezed into a two year time frame.

    Brexit should be a process and not an event.
    You want to re-join, with all the bells and whistles, if necessary.

    It's actually quite hard to work out what you truly want from what you post on here, even though I have my own view.
    I don't want to rejoin the EU if it means adopting the Euro, The EU Army, and Schengen.

    My fear is that if Brexit is a long term disaster then the country may vote to rejoin the EU even if it means adopting all of those.

    That's what Brexit needs to be success. I fear whilst David Davis, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May are running the Brexit show, Brexit looks like being a disaster.
    so without Davis, Fox, Boris etc then it could indeed be a great success? That's what your implying. But judging from your previous posts I don't think you mean that ...

    Leaving negotiations to people who see the EU as the enemy, but have never bothered to learn how it works or what drives FTA dealmaking, has proved to be sub-optimal, to say the least. Brexit was always going to be tough, but pursuing a version of it designed to appease the Tory right was an undoubted error that will cost this country dear.

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    I wouldn't touch this market for two reasons: First, the market is not showing the most likely reason for impeachment; that is obstruction of justice. Second what happens if there are multiple grounds for impeachment.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,269
    edited September 2017
    Stodge said:

    (E)USSR

    Punishes people who want to leave ✔

    Central planning with limited democratic oversight ✔

    Non-supporting political opinions shut out ✔

    Also the UK.

    Weren't a lot of people in favour of "punishing" Scotland if they had voted for independence ?

    We still have a lot of centralised planning with too much power in Westminster and Whitehall.

    Yes, to a point. Try arguing for higher taxes and increased welfare spending and see how far you get.

    Mark doesn't want to look in the mirror though. He's happy with all that as long as his team is the one meting it out.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. Currystar/Mr. CD13, indeed.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm confused by your position. You did say, pre-vote, that you believed we should leave, but 10 years down the line after another referendum. Why would that be easier?

    Depending on what May says in about a week (21st, I think) that *may* [ahem] open the door to another vote. I think it unlikely, but a plausible possibility.

    There's still a total failure to look at matters of integration and defending British cultural values (such as not raping people because they're white working class children or not looking the other way because the rapists are Pakistani Muslims) which is more critical, I would argue, to the migration debate than the actual numbers involved.

    We're certainly in the middle of interesting times. And they won't be ending for a while yet.

    Because Brexit is a process that cannot be squeezed into a two year time frame.

    Brexit should be a process and not an event.
    You want to re-join, with all the bells and whistles, if necessary.

    It's actually quite hard to work out what you truly want from what you post on here, even though I have my own view.
    I don't want to rejoin the EU if it means adopting the Euro, The EU Army, and Schengen.

    My fear is that if Brexit is a long term disaster then the country may vote to rejoin the EU even if it means adopting all of those.

    That's what Brexit needs to be success. I fear whilst David Davis, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May are running the Brexit show, Brexit looks like being a disaster.
    I'd certainly say that signing up to them is a price worth paying. In fact, I might even say that they are desirable things in their own right. If the consequences of Brexit lead to us being back in on those terms that might even mean that the leave vote turned out to be a good thing for the country after all.
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    @alexkealy: The year is 2046

    Crossrail 9 is announced, cutting London journey times by 2%.

    News of its commission reaches The North by horse and cart.

    Only if HS2 is scrapped ;)
    By the time all the budgets go awry, it will be called HorSe2 and that will be that.
    LOL. I'll have to remember that one. ;)
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    Blue_rog said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The problem for me has never been the Euro but the Single Market. It is a pernicious mechanism which has enriched a few and caused immense social damage in many areas. Opening borders and markets has simply caused labour and capital to flow to the wealthier areas of Europe and impoverished the peripheries and other places.

    For all that London, Bavaria, the Rhineland and other places have gained from migrant labour and the ability to expand service-driven economies, the social damage both in terms of the impact of migration on the places where the migrants have arrived and (much more importantly) the areas they have left has been considerable.

    I wanted a European Union dedicated to the economic improvement of all of Europe including and especially the poorer peripheral areas yet all they have got is depopulation and economic devastation whether it's a Greek island or a Romanian or Bulgarian village or even parts of Ireland - the young have left, the businesses have closed and only the old remain. This was foreshadowed in the depopulation of the GDR after unification but we didn't see or want to see and, incidentally, makes the claims of those who assert they didn't realise the potential flow of economic migrants from Poland and other accessor countries lamentable.

    I'm sure my vision of what the EU should be is a minority one and I'm not going with the economic flow - I don't care. Parts of Cornwall and Wales benefitted in the past from projects supported by EU Objective One funding and there remains considerable poverty in the rural and peripheral areas of Europe but that no longer seems to be the EU's focus and that's why I voted to Leave (among other reasons).

    If its a minority view then I'm in the minority as well.
    And me
    You all seem to want young people in remote parts of Europe to be stuck with poor prospects in places they don't want to be. Why anyone would wish such a fate on anyone is beyond me.
    Better to have development throughout Europe and so give people more options than have abandonment of peripheral regions and unaffordable congestion and squalor for the poor in the highly developed parts.

    Living a dozen to a Willesden flat or Ealing garden shed isn't a fate I would wish upon anyone.
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